Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne 2021 analysis

[bulldogsthru&thru]

So this is more of an “open up to the audience piece”.

We played them twice this year. The first meeting was a nightmare for us. We were generally poor all around. Poor skills, poor positioning and poor decision making. Some of this was created by the way melbourne played us. They allowed us space down back and forced us wide to kick to contests where Lever and May could pick the ball off. They wanted us to switch on the narrower Etihad ground. They also pressured the outlet option at contests, rather than attacking the ball carrier which blocked our typical handball game.

Now I missed the second meeting. We got the win, but what did we change to reverse our fortunes? Was it more than simply playing better? (I’m assuming yes). How much did the rain influence the result? What worked for us and what do we need to do to beat them in two weeks?

[Mantis]

In the second game we won the free kick count 25-11 which was the main reason why we won that game. ;)

Haven't had Dunks, Treloar or Martin in either game which gives us a different look.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

In the second game we won the free kick count 25-11 which was the main reason why we won that game. ;)

Haven't had Dunks, Treloar or Martin in either game which gives us a different look.

Did we tweak our structure/gameplan in our second meeting?

[Mantis]

Did we tweak our structure/gameplan in our second meeting?

We structured up differently in the back half in our 2nd clash by adding a 3rd tall (Schache) to the mix which no doubt helped our cause, especially given Keath went off early with an injury. It must also be stated that in our Rd 11 clash Cordy spent a large amount of time on Fritsch which meant our other medium sized defenders had to play tall given McDonald, Weidemann & Jackson were all on the ground at times.

We butchered the ball early on as bad as we have all year in Rd11 which gifted Melb goal scoring opportunities and will likely have 8 different players in the team for the GF compared to Rd 11 so not sure that game is all that relevant.

Given the game is still 2 weeks away I'm sure we will all re-watch the games played earlier in the year and provide a bit more analysis then... but for now we just savor that we've made it.

[bulldogtragic]

I just checked the last seven quarters, after that horrible first one of the first game. Plus Gawn destroyed Sweet which has seemed to destroy Sweet since then. In the balance of the last three quarters we only feel one point further behind. We won by 20 points in the second game. So our last seven quarters against them this year, we’ve done well against them/not blown away. So when we are switched on, we can handle their systems and their game plan. We can defend against them and score against them and not get bullied by the dominant ruck and big mids. In that second game we did it without Keath (from early on), Martin (allowing now English to second ruck and play forward & Schache not to Second ruck), Treloar & Dunkley.

No one in media land will dig into the weeds like this thread will. But there’s plenty of improvement in our squad to face them, since we beat them on their home ground.

[bornadog]

I just checked the last seven quarters, after that horrible first one of the first game. Plus Gawn destroyed Sweet which has seemed to destroy Sweet since then. In the balance of the last three quarters we only feel one point further behind. We won by 20 points in the second game. So our last seven quarters against them this year, we’ve done well against them/not blown away. So when we are switched on, we can handle their systems and their game plan. We can defend against them and score against them and not get bullied by the dominant ruck and big mids. In that second game we did it without Keath (from early on), Martin (allowing now English to second ruck and play forward & Schache not to Second ruck), Treloar & Dunkley.

No one in media land will dig into the weeds like this thread will. But there’s plenty of improvement in our squad to face them, since we beat them on their home ground.

The first quarter we gave up so many easy goals by turning over the ball in our back 50. Dale had a shocker, kicking the ball to Melbourne, Libba kicked across the ground straight to a Melbourne player. I think I counted 4 bad turnovers that gave Melbourne direct shots at goal.

As you say, after that there was just 1 point in it for the remainder of the game.

[comrade]

The first quarter we gave up so many easy goals by turning over the ball in our back 50. Dale had a shocker, kicking the ball to Melbourne, Libba kicked across the ground straight to a Melbourne player. I think I counted 4 bad turnovers that gave Melbourne direct shots at goal.

As you say, after that there was just 1 point in it for the remainder of the game.

They were bad turnovers, but credit also has to go to Melbourne for the way they set up the ground that night. We wouldn't have tried to switch so desperately if we had better options up field. They also peeled off and forced us to get the ball to Cordy way more than we'd want, slowing our movement down and limiting our ability to exit cleanly.

We rectified that in the 2nd outing and turned it into a more chaotic, ground ball game (weather helped). Caleb was incredible that night with his clean hands and vision. We'll need to do something similar next week.

[Dry Rot]

Note Martin's ankle injury

‘Be offensive’: Ruck great’s wise words to Martin ahead of Gawn battle

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/be-offensive-ruck-great-s-wise-words-to-martin-ahead-of-gawn-battle-20210913-p58r7g.html


Jon PierikSeptember 13, 2021 — 4.55pm

The only ruckman to win a North Smith Medal has advised Stefan Martin to not forget his own offensive game when he seeks to tame Melbourne star Max Gawn in the AFL grand final.

Simon Madden, the Essendon champion who torched Hawthorn in the 1985 grand final, said Martin, the robust Western Bulldog, had a key role to play against a man who will be one of the favourites to claim the esteemed individual prize come Saturday week at Optus Stadium.

Stefan Martin is poised to go head-to-head with former Demons teammate Max Gawn in the grand final.
Stefan Martin is poised to go head-to-head with former Demons teammate Max Gawn in the grand final.Credit:AFL Photos
Martin, returning from a groin injury and in only his eighth game of the season, was pivotal in Saturday night’s victory over Port Adelaide but now faces an enormous challenge against Gawn, who had the game of his life against Geelong last Friday with 33 hit outs, 19 disposals and five goals.

“You have got to try and negate him [Gawn] as much as you can. It’s got to be really heavy body work. He does that, he knows how to do that really heavy body work, so over time you wear him down,” Madden said.

Max Gawn is in imposing form for the Demons at the most important stage of the season.
Max Gawn is in imposing form for the Demons at the most important stage of the season.Credit:Getty Images
“But, also, if I was his ruck coach or his coach, I would be saying, depending on the team rules, anytime you get to run off him and get the ball, you put pressure the other way. If he doesn’t have to worry about you, he can run his own game. If he has to worry about you, his mind is split in two places.

“So, if you run around, get your opportunity to get a possession. It’s always that balance of defence and offence but, sometimes, you can worry about the bloke and not be offensive.”

Gawn’s ability to go forward and create trouble has been on show all season, including when the skipper marked and booted the match-winning goal after the final siren against the Cats in round 23. He has 16 goals this season; Martin, his good friend and former Melbourne teammate, has only one in his first, and perhaps only, season at the Whitten Oval before retirement.

Regardless, Martin’s importance to the Dogs cannot be underestimated, given they have won seven of the eight matches he has played, the only loss being to Richmond in round seven.

While they did have an 11-6 win-loss record without him, a peak below the hood shows why they are structurally better with the 34-year-old making his presence felt.

When Martin has played, they have averaged 97.1 points per game, up from 88.1 without him. He also allows Tim English to spend more time forward as a marking tall, an important role since Josh Bruce was lost to a knee injury. The emergence of Josh Schache in recent weeks alongside Aaron Naughton should ensure Demons defenders Steven May, Harrison Petty and Jake Lever will be held accountable.

While the Bulldogs are still negative in terms of hitout differential, it is not as imbalanced when Martin is there. Critically, the Dogs’ scores from stoppages differential lifts from +5.8 to +14.9, as the midfield fleet gets busy. No wonder coach Luke Beveridge said on Friday his midfielders had regularly been asking when Martin would return.

Through the season the Dogs are also marginally better in centre-clearance differential when Martin is in the team, but Saturday’s seven-goal-to-one first term underlined his true value.

“The first goal they kicked tonight was Stef Martin winning the first centre bounce, getting it down to Bont (Marcus Bontempelli), getting it long, Bailey Smith kicks the goal,” Bulldogs’ great Brad Johnson told Fox Footy.

“That’s the importance of a Stef Martin now going into grand final day against Max Gawn, because all of a sudden their confidence is back in centre bounces, where that was the one part of their game that was being questioned.”

Martin rolled his ankle on Saturday but had the joint re-strapped and returned to the field. It’s been a frustrating year of injury for the grizzled 14-year veteran, who had spent his previous eight seasons with Brisbane. But, as Beveridge said, one thing is assured come selection on Thursday week.

“If he is alright in two weeks, absolutely, he will be playing in the grand final if he is physically OK, no doubt,” Beveridge said.

[bulldogtragic]

Doesn’t sound too serious if he played the game out with 14 days of physio or other treatment between games. With the margin we had almost all game, you’d expect he wouldn’t have gone on and stayed on for 68% of the game.

[bulldogtragic]

I just checked the last seven quarters, after that horrible first one of the first game. Plus Gawn destroyed Sweet which has seemed to destroy Sweet since then. In the balance of the last three quarters we only feel one point further behind. We won by 20 points in the second game. So our last seven quarters against them this year, we’ve done well against them/not blown away. So when we are switched on, we can handle their systems and their game plan. We can defend against them and score against them and not get bullied by the dominant ruck and big mids. In that second game we did it without Keath (from early on), Martin (allowing now English to second ruck and play forward & Schache not to Second ruck), Treloar & Dunkley.

No one in media land will dig into the weeds like this thread will. But there’s plenty of improvement in our squad to face them, since we beat them on their home ground.

On top of that for both teams personnel, I just compared the team sheets in R19 to our expected GF 23:

Their side has one change in since we beat them, Sparrow & Jordan swapped bench for sub. So same, same.

Our side has five changes in since we beat them, Keath (99%), Gardner, Martin, Dunkley & Treloar. (Cordy, Richards who got concussion and stayed off, Scott, Garcia, Marra, Bruce)

We beat them on their home deck. They’re virtually the same. We’ve got incoming our best defender, an agile, quicker taller defender, our best ruck, two gun midfielders who can play inside and outside and kick goals. Plus swinging Schache forward and much more time forward for English as a positional changes covering Bruce & Marra not being there. Richards stayed off a good chunk of the second half which obviously hurt our rotations. Hopefully we don’t have two out either nearly the whole game or half. So there’s hopefully a gain in productivity here too.

I think we come at them much, much stronger than when we last met. Sparrow/Jordan isn’t a material difference. It might only be on paper at this point, but we are a superior group of talent this time around. I wonder when someone in media land compares the team sheets and sees this?

[Rhys]

Missing players impact:


Neither Dunkley or Treloar played against the demons in either match this year. Let’s look at their impact over the last 3 weeks:


Prelim:


Dunks: 22 disposals, 8 tackles


Treloar: 23 disposals, 1 goal, 9 tackles


Semi final:


Dunks: 21 disposals, 7 tackles


Treloar: 10 disposals, 5 tackles


Elimination final:


Dunks: 14 disposals, 3 tackles


Treloar: 28 disposals, 5 tackles


That’s what gives me hope. We gain a decent amount of disposals a week with those two in, and over a solid amount of tackles a game. In addition, Dunkley is now tagging. Kept parish quiet after half time and went onto Neale in the semi-final and did a great job. Dunks and Treloar love playing together, and it really lifts the group. Those two in the team means we bat very deep in our midfield rotations. Consider this:


Martin/English, Bont, Macrae, Libba, Smith, Dunks, Treloar, Hunter


Against:


Gawn/Jackson, Oliver, Petracca, Viney, Harmes, Brayshaw, Langdon, Sparrow


In week 1 against Brisbane, Oliver (84%) Petracca (90%) had high time on ground. Their wingers spent even more time on the ground in that game. Brayshaw (86%) and Langdon (100%). This seems to be a common trend for Melbourne across the season: They play with the same players in the same positions, nearly all game.


Where we can get them is running through fresh units of players throughout the match. The reason we can be successful here and other teams can’t is that our other rotations still involve quality players. When Petracca and Oliver eventually do need a rest, and if that ever combines with Jackson being in the ruck, look our Dees!


In terms of Jackson, he doesn’t have a huge tank. Only spent 68% time on ground against the Lions. When English comes up against him in the ruck when Martin needs a rest, we can gain an advantage here.


Martin being in is absolutely enormous for us. From a planning perspective, it just throws the Dees off, as will our Dunks and Treloar inclusions. You can see them play on TV all you want, it’s not the same as playing against them in person as a collective. Melbourne hasn’t.


Flexibility will be the reason we win this match. Fresh players wearing breaking down the Melbourne wall, brick by brick. Martin giving our midfield a fighting chance, and not allowing Gawn to do as he pleases.


Yield to none. This is the Doggies time, 2021!

[1eyedog]

Missing players impact:


Neither Dunkley or Treloar played against the demons in either match this year. Let’s look at their impact over the last 3 weeks:


Prelim:


Dunks: 22 disposals, 8 tackles


Treloar: 23 disposals, 1 goal, 9 tackles


Semi final:


Dunks: 21 disposals, 7 tackles


Treloar: 10 disposals, 5 tackles


Elimination final:


Dunks: 14 disposals, 3 tackles


Treloar: 28 disposals, 5 tackles


That’s what gives me hope. We gain around 40ish disposals a week with those two in, and over 10 tackles a game. In addition, Dunkley is now tagging. Kept parish quiet after half time and went onto Neale in the semi-final and did a great job. Dunks and Treloar love playing together, and it really lifts the group. Those two in the team means we bat very deep in our midfield rotations. Consider this:


Martin/English, Bont, Macrae, Libba, Smith, Dunks, Treloar, Hunter


Against:


Gawn/Jackson, Oliver, Petracca, Viney, Harmes, Brayshaw, Langdon, Sparrow


In week 1 against Brisbane, Oliver (84%) Petracca (90%) had high time on ground. Their wingers spent even more time on the ground in that game. Brayshaw (86%) and Langdon (100%). This seems to be a common trend for Melbourne across the season: They play with the same players in the same positions, nearly all game.


Where we can get them is running through fresh units of players throughout the match. The reason we can be successful here and other teams can’t is that our other rotations still involve quality players. When Petracca and Oliver eventually do need a rest, and if that ever combines with Jackson being in the ruck, look our Dees!


In terms of Jackson, he doesn’t have a huge tank. Only spent 68% time on ground against the Lions. When English comes up against him in the ruck when Martin needs a rest, we can gain an advantage here.


Martin being in is absolutely enormous for us. From a planning perspective, it just throws the Dees off, as will our Dunks and Treloar inclusions. You can see them play on TV all you want, it’s not the same as playing against them in person as a collective. Melbourne hasn’t.


Flexibility will be the reason we win this match. Fresh players wearing breaking down the Melbourne wall, brick by brick. Martin giving our midfield a fighting chance, and not allowing Gawn to do as he pleases.


Yield to none. This is the Doggies time, 2021!

Well this has me across the line.

[Bulldog Joe]

There is no doubt that we have improved personnel from both meetings in the H & A

Also we are the team that improves the personnel from the PF with the addition of Keath and Weightman.

Melbourne have had an amazing absence of injury throughout the year, but we are actually closer to full list availability for the GF than for any other game all year.

[Mofra]

If we make Brayshaw accountable, we win. Simple as that.

If he's accountable we get the chance to switch the ball and run it. It helps us play the game at our pace. If we play slow, May & Lever will beat us with intercepts.

We can't forget Melbourne are peaking at the right time and a formidable side. Libba will be tagged heavily so the midfield group needs to be prepared for that.

[Rhys]

https://player.whooshkaa.com/whateley?episode=904788

Amazing analysis of both our meetings with the Dees this year from David King, Craig Jennings and Gerard Whateley. Absolutely worth a listen to. Didn’t realise that Melbourne won the contested possessions count both times against us. You would think Dunks back (Especially if he tags) and Treloar will change that somewhat.

[hujsh]

https://player.whooshkaa.com/whateley?episode=904788

Amazing analysis of both our meetings with the Dees this year from David King, Craig Jennings and Gerard Whateley. Absolutely worth a listen to. Didn’t realise that Melbourne won the contested possessions count both times against us. You would think Dunks back (Especially if he tags) and Treloar will change that somewhat.


Why is this font Grandma size?

[EasternWest]

Why is this font Grandma size?

I for one welcome our new grandma size font.

[Rhys]

Wrote it on notes when I apparently had it in a smaller font �� Edited the post, so hopefully it’s in a bigger font now

[bulldogtragic]

Footage tonight on 360 was great analysis and a great visual of what we did. Hannan kept going to May, constantly fighting to change the match up, and in the end Lever just went to Naughton as per our plan no doubt. Lever got 15 interceptions and had goals kicked on him. But May was absolutely ineffectual and Hannan kicked a couple of goals himself. It wasn’t a tag, but forced a change in match ups while kicking goals and upsetting their structure.

[comrade]

Footage tonight on 360 was great analysis and a great visual of what we did. Hannan kept going to May, constantly fighting to change the match up, and in the end Lever just went to Naughton as per our plan no doubt. Lever got 15 interceptions and had goals kicked on him. But May was absolutely ineffectual and Hannan kicked a couple of goals himself. It wasn’t a tag, but forced a change in match ups while kicking goals and upsetting their structure.

They spoke about the contested differential in our 2 previous games v Melbourne, yet no mention that Martin, Treloar and Dunkley missed both games.

[Happy Days]

Hannan was excellent against the Dees last time. Easily his best game other than the prelim.

[bulldogtragic]

They spoke about the contested differential in our 2 previous games v Melbourne, yet no mention that Martin, Treloar and Dunkley missed both games.

Yep... And when Richards got concussed (Keath already out) our rotations so their mids were rested for longer for the last half.

The more I think Martin, Treloar, Dunkley, Keath, Gardiner, Schache & English kept forward and not down to 3 on the bench… the more I think there’s a genuine basis to feel confident about us improving while their 23 will be the same. I feel contented and nervous.

[comrade]

Yep... And when Richards got concussed (Keath already out) our rotations so their mids were rested for longer for the last half.

The more I think Martin, Treloar, Dunkley, Keath, Gardiner, Schache & English kept forward and not down to 3 on the bench… the more I think there’s a genuine basis to feel confident about us improving while their 23 will be the same. I feel contented and nervous.

Will be interesting if we go with Hannan and Naughton as the match ups for May and Lever again. That means English gets Petty most like and Schache probably gets Hibberd? If we can bring it to ground, we can really do some damage either from general play or by generating stoppages and torching them again.

[Hotdog60]

Riley Beveridge and Callum Twomey pick the ins and outs for the 2021 Toyota AFL Grand Final

WESTERN BULLDOGS

B: Easton Wood, Alex Keath, Bailey Williams
HB: Caleb Daniel, Zaine Cordy, Bailey Dale
C: Bailey Smith, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Hunter
HF: Jason Johannisen, Aaron Naughton, Adam Treloar
F: Josh Schache, Tim English, Mitch Hannan
R: Stefan Martin, Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli
I/C: Cody Weightman, Tom Liberatore, Taylor Duryea, Roarke Smith
Emerg: Laitham Vandermeer, Anthony Scott, Lewis Young, Ryan Gardner

In: Cody Weightman, Alex Keath
Out: Laitham Vandermeer, Ryan Gardner

I don't think Gardner would be out of the side and he was picked ahead of Cordy earlier in the year.
Also I think Vanders would be a match up for Salem would Roarke end up the Medi sub

[bulldogtragic]

Will be interesting if we go with Hannan and Naughton as the match ups for May and Lever again. That means English gets Petty most like and Schache probably gets Hibberd? If we can bring it to ground, we can really do some damage either from general play or by generating stoppages and torching them again.

If Schache has Hibberd (14cm), and he’s still clunking Marks as he was in the PF. He could kick 5. Plus he’s got the endurance to run with Hibberd all day. I think they’d like Hannan on Hibberd. Unless they think Hibberd has too much speed for Schache and will help them launch counter attack. Safe bet both teams will want different match ups. If we can get our way for long enough, that’s going to help.

[azabob]

Riley Beveridge and Callum Twomey pick the ins and outs for the 2021 Toyota AFL Grand Final

WESTERN BULLDOGS

B: Easton Wood, Alex Keath, Bailey Williams
HB: Caleb Daniel, Zaine Cordy, Bailey Dale
C: Bailey Smith, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Hunter
HF: Jason Johannisen, Aaron Naughton, Adam Treloar
F: Josh Schache, Tim English, Mitch Hannan
R: Stefan Martin, Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli
I/C: Cody Weightman, Tom Liberatore, Taylor Duryea, Roarke Smith
Emerg: Laitham Vandermeer, Anthony Scott, Lewis Young, Ryan Gardner

In: Cody Weightman, Alex Keath
Out: Laitham Vandermeer, Ryan Gardner

I don't think Gardner would be out of the side and he was picked ahead of Cordy earlier in the year.
Also I think Vanders would be a match up for Salem would Roarke end up the Medi sub

If Roarke is the sub who goes to Langdon or Brayshaw?

[bornadog]

They spoke about the contested differential in our 2 previous games v Melbourne, yet no mention that Martin, Treloar and Dunkley missed both games.

Most of the contested poss are won by Oliver, so I am not too worried about the differential, however, we must win the clearances - both stoppage and centre, or at least break even in the centre.

[Mantis]

They spoke about the contested differential in our 2 previous games v Melbourne, yet no mention that Martin, Treloar and Dunkley missed both games.

Are either games all that relevant as we will have made probably 8 & 5 changes respectively from our earlier clashes?.... like we know how Melb will line-up and play because nothing has changed, but our line-up has changed immensely.

[AshMac]

This thread is dangerous. It’s giving me hope and dare I say it….a little confidence.

[comrade]

This thread is dangerous. It’s giving me hope and dare I say it….a little confidence.

Well to counter that, Melbourne don't really have any players I would consider super flaky whereas Port have a bunch. I was kind of banking on guys like Amon, Motlop, Rozee, Fantasia etc to have stinkers under pressure as our path to victory and it worked out that way. I look at Melbourne's expected 22 and there really aren't any weak links. It's going to be a grind for 4 quarters and if we do emerge as winners, it'll be a small margin.

As fans, we'll be white knuckling all game I imagine.

[Mantis]

Well to counter that, Melbourne don't really have any players I would consider super flaky whereas Port have a bunch. I was kind of banking on guys like Amon, Motlop, Rozee, Fantasia etc to have stinkers under pressure as our path to victory and it worked out that way. I look at Melbourne's expected 22 and there really aren't any weak links. It's going to be a grind for 4 quarters and if we do emerge as winners, it'll be a small margin.

As fans, we'll be white knuckling all game I imagine.

They've got a number of flaky players.. it's all good & well to look amazing when you win by 14 goals, but their entire forward-line is just as likely to stink as opposed to look amazing. As per our PF we simply can't allow clean ball into Melb's forward-line, but given Keath pretty much didn't play on Brown in rd 19 and Gardner hasn't playing against them at all I'm confident we will have a strong aerial presence.

[Rhys]

What I loved about the footage on 360 regarding the Lever/May matchups we forced was that Melbourne eventually gave in to us. Eventually, May and Lever said “This is getting too much. Fine, let them have their way.”

I’m not sure what Goodwin can actually do to stop this? If May and Lever are always focused on getting to who they want to get to, then then aren’t focused on intercepting. Schache/English/Weightman will take mark after mark on Hibberd/Petty. If they let us have our way and engineer Naughton on Lever, he can’t intercept anyway and will get dunked on. Schache could be given instruction to just lead May out of the contest and provide room for Naughton, etc

[GVGjr]

This thread is dangerous. It’s giving me hope and dare I say it….a little confidence.

I'm very confident of a win. We've never lost to Melbourne in a GF and I can't see why that would change.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Where Schache plays is going to be quite interesting. Forward? Defence? Run-with role on Jackson?

[Grantysghost]

I'm very confident of a win. We've never lost to Melbourne in a GF and I can't see why that would change.

They are certainly due for a choke, they've got all the pressure really we've got a massive out if we lose.

If we win it's the greatest flag ever.
If they win, they beat that team that copped a raw deal.

These guys have surprised me this year with their new found mettle; I'm waiting for the real Demons to appear.

[Mofra]

They've got a number of flaky players.. it's all good & well to look amazing when you win by 14 goals, but their entire forward-line is just as likely to stink as opposed to look amazing. As per our PF we simply can't allow clean ball into Melb's forward-line, but given Keath pretty much didn't play on Brown in rd 19 and Gardner hasn't playing against them at all I'm confident we will have a strong aerial presence.
The aerial presence issue is interesting - we might need Stef to play a bit more defensively as they'll have three talls down there (McD, Brown, Jackson) while we have only two KPDs.

That might play into our hands as we should be able to beat them for outside run / rebound

[Mantis]

The aerial presence issue is interesting - we might need Stef to play a bit more defensively as they'll have three talls down there (McD, Brown, Jackson) while we have only two KPDs.

That might play into our hands as we should be able to beat them for outside run / rebound

I'd roll the dice on Jackson as I don't think he has the hurt factor I50.

He averages less than 1 mark I50 per match and 0.5 goals per game so I'd be happy for Williams to play on him and try and be an offensive weapon for us.. if it isn't working we have other options.

[Rhys]

Bevo is Batman. You give Batman 2 weeks planning and prep time, he will conquer any villain. Bevo with that timeframe will have something unique he is ready to unleash on an unsuspecting Dees outfit. They won’t know what hit them.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Bevo is Batman. You give Batman 2 weeks planning and prep time, he will conquer any villain. Bevo with that timeframe will have something unique he is ready to unleash on an unsuspecting Dees outfit. They won’t know what hit them.

Yeah giving Bevo 2 weeks to work out how to untangle the demons is a bonus. Hope we don’t overthink it but I’m sure he’ll have something up his sleeve. We’ve also got an extra week to practice it.

[bornadog]

Bevo is Batman. You give Batman 2 weeks planning and prep time, he will conquer any villain. Bevo with that timeframe will have something unique he is ready to unleash on an unsuspecting Dees outfit. They won’t know what hit them.

Dees are predictable. We know who is playing and how they play. They only have one game plan and we will rip it apart like we did in round 19.

[dog town]

They've got a number of flaky players.. it's all good & well to look amazing when you win by 14 goals, but their entire forward-line is just as likely to stink as opposed to look amazing. As per our PF we simply can't allow clean ball into Melb's forward-line, but given Keath pretty much didn't play on Brown in rd 19 and Gardner hasn't playing against them at all I'm confident we will have a strong aerial presence. If it isn't on their terms they have a few backs who cough it up and also start finger pointing. Have been protected all year, watch the first qtr of the Brisbane final anytime the ball gets past the interceptors or hits the deck. Rivers basically handed Cameron a goal at one point.

[dog town]

I'd roll the dice on Jackson as I don't think he has the hurt factor I50.

He averages less than 1 mark I50 per match and 0.5 goals per game so I'd be happy for Williams to play on him and try and be an offensive weapon for us.. if it isn't working we have other options. That is exactly what we will do I think, one of them will generally play high anyway. Strength in numbers when they do get deep because it will be a slow play.

[Topdog]

Far too much confidence in this thread for my liking. Boy this next 8 days is going to be difficult to get through

[Grantysghost]

Far too much confidence in this thread for my liking. Boy this next 8 days is going to be difficult to get through
I'm not gonna make it!

[boydogs]

Yeah giving Bevo 2 weeks to work out how to untangle the demons is a bonus. Hope we don’t overthink it but I’m sure he’ll have something up his sleeve. We’ve also got an extra week to practice it.

He's finally managed to lockdown our training sessions like he always wanted :D

[Mantis]

That is exactly what we will do I think, one of them will generally play high anyway. Strength in numbers when they do get deep because it will be a slow play.

Yep.. having watched a fair bit of our Rd19 game last night our match-ups were determined by position on the ground rather than the person, but we will have to roll the dice a bit and our defenders will need to be supported by our mids/ forwards and each other.

[Axe Man]

Mick McGuane’s 2021 AFL Grand Final Preview: What to look for, who will win and why (https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/mick-mcguanes-2021-afl-grand-final-preview-what-to-look-for-who-will-win-and-why/news-story/f40e91def7cad55e9a092e172b55b2a3)

The big dance is almost here and it shapes as an intriguing contest between two sides who go about things a little differently.

Collingwood 1990 premiership player Mick McGuane breaks down the Grand Final with this mega preview.

MELBOURNE

WHAT TO EXPECT

The Demons to back their brand, which has got them this far. They are a tough and uncompromising side that gets the fire started at the coalface with Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and James Harmes. The start of this Grand Final will be brutal in a physical sense. Melbourne will try and create a strong territory game. They will look to get the game on their terms on the back of their clearance-winning ability, a high kick-to-handball ratio and ruthless forward half pressure that has been a feature of their finals series so far. Effective tackling, which is a choice, will also be front of mind for Melbourne players, who will be out to assault the Western Bulldogs ball carriers in a manic and physical way. History has no relevance with this group — it’s all about them creating their own.

THE KEY

Stifle the Bulldogs’ strength at stoppages. Win the contested ball and clearances but, most importantly, post-clearance contested ball wins must be a priority. The Demons need to “hunt with grunt” and they have players who do that well in Oliver, Petracca and Viney. But keeping good shape and width off the ball is equally important. It adds vital defensive layers off the contest which must exist against the Bulldogs so they just can’t flick the ball around to get their offensive ball movement into gear. That didn’t happen when these sides last met in Round 19, with the Bulldogs scoring 46 points from clearances — their fifth-most of the season. It’s not only about winning stoppages, but how you defend them as well. The Demons must get the right balance of when to attack and when to defend. Always rolling the dice could lead to disastrous consequences.

THE CHALLENGE

Can the key forwards stand up? You’ve got Tom McDonald, who was almost traded last year, and Ben Brown, who wasn’t given a contract at North Melbourne before finding a new home. Here’s a chance for both of them to solidify the reasons why they are on Melbourne’s list. In Grand Final’s, key forwards simply must stand up and impose themselves in the air as well as hit the scoreboard — think Jack Riewoldt, Tom Lynch, Tom Boyd and Josh Kennedy. When these sides last met in Round 19, Melbourne’s goals per inside-50 percentage was only 17.6 per cent which was their fourth-lowest efficiency of the year. They can’t afford a return like that again.

THE CONCERN

The finals preparation. As good as the Demons have been all year, the league’s pre-Grand Final bye adds an element of concern. Entering the Grand Final, the Demons would have only played one game in 28 days. That’s not ideal, and most players who have been in this situation before would say they would prefer continuity to ensure they are match-hardened and in a routine. The questions will be, will it help or hinder the team’s performance? How have the players dealt with it? And have too many players already played the game in their head? The Demons won’t want to be five per cent off. The other concern is Steven May’s hamstring. If it pops early in the game, Melbourne is in strife.

THE THEME

Stay the course and believe in what has got you here. Melbourne has had a team-first attitude this year and I’ve always been a believer that individuals can contribute but teams win Grand Finals. Players like Angus Brayshaw, Ed Langdon, Harrison Petty, Alex Neal-Bullen, James Jordan and James Harmes all understand the significant roles they play. When perfected well the team benefits. The Demons players will also need to be flexible in-game defensively and potentially sacrifice their own games for the benefit of the team. Structurally, an “in game” adjustment might be required, especially if Bailey Smith gets off the chain.

THE STAR

Christian Petracca. He continues to thrive and has matured into an elite footballer on the back of commitment to his trade and improved fitness levels. Petracca is clearly one of the competition’s game-breakers and we’ve witnessed with Dustin Martin what a match winner can do in finals. Much like Martin, Petracca is a centre-forward player who has logged only seven per cent of his possessions this year in the defensive 50 and he possesses similar breakaway power from stoppages which is so dangerous. Petracca has kicked 27.18 this year — which is great conversion overall — but in finals he has managed only 2.2 against Brisbane and 1.2 against Geelong. Take his chances in front of goal this week and he could join Martin as a Norm Smith Medal winner.

X-FACTOR

Bailey Fritsch. The 188cm forward might be a left-field choice, but I’ve got question marks over whether the small-to-medium size Bulldogs defenders can keep the small-to-medium Melbourne forwards quiet. In his two games against the Bulldogs this year, Fritsch has kicked a combined five goals out of a team total of 22 goals. He’s an unsung hero who gets the job done with no fuss. He is the type of player who can have five kicks but kick four goals given his lethal kicking leg — meaning he could help Melbourne win the game.

IF I WAS MELBOURNE …

Steven May picks up Aaron Naughton. Harrison Petty goes to Tim English. A combination of Trent Rivers and Michael Hibberd goes to Cody Weightman. Then Jake Lever takes his pick of who he needs to play on for his creative intercepting game to thrive. Keeping Bailey Smith quiet will be a huge consideration given his out-of-this-world finals series. Smith is the only player since 1999 to average at least 20 disposals, 500m gained, five inside-50s and 2.5 goals a game in a finals series. You can ill-afford to let him roam free and must ensure his disposals are under pressure. I’d start James Harmes as a high half-forward but then have him roll up to engage Tom Liberatore in general play, allowing Christian Petracca the creative license to push forward. The message to Max Gawn would be to work hard back to support the defence but also slide forward and try and hit the scoreboard. Gawn must also spend some time out of the goalsquare when Luke Jackson rucks, which will force the Bulldogs defenders to readjust their match ups.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

WHAT TO EXPECT

A physical and brutal start. It’s got to come from Stefan Martin as an aggressive ruckman and Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae and Tom Liberatore in the middle. The centre bounce crew must set the scene. Winning territory and playing a strong forward-half game is the Bulldogs’ way and that’s when they play their best. The Bulldogs have a capacity to generate scores from inside-50s better than any other team so supply is the key, which generally comes from a committed, hardworking midfield group. Defending scores from stoppages will be a focus for the Bulldogs, who can’t allow Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca to latch onto Max Gawn’s ruck work and charge out of stoppages like they did against Geelong. The Bulldogs will most likely want to saturate the stoppages with extra numbers to help out their defence and kickstart their attack.

THE KEY

The Bulldogs’ ball movement against Melbourne’s measly defensive set-up. The Demons have been a great pressure team all year but their tackle efficiency during finals has gone through the roof to 69.2 per cent. Without the ball, they are a tough team to play against. That is going to test the Bulldogs’ ball movement and in big games effective ball use is a critical element. The Bulldogs will need to ensure they get the ball in the hands of their best ball users and decision makers at every opportunity to kickstart their offence — whether it be Marcus Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel or Bailey Dale. Lacking courage or conviction with ball movement will play into the hands of the Melbourne defenders. Time to be daring.

THE CHALLENGE

Mastering inside-50 efficiency. How the Bulldogs kick inside-50 will determine the result. When Luke Beveridge’s team has kicked 85 points or more this year they have a 15-0 record. When they beat Melbourne in Round 19, they reached that 85-point mark. When they lost to the Demons in Round 11, they managed only 59 points and recorded their third-lowest inside-50 efficiency of the year. The Bulldogs have got to isolate and separate and create one-on-ones with space to lead into. Aaron Naughton needs to test Steven May’s hamstring with his explosive leading and the Bulldogs’ ball carriers need to lower the eyes and look for short hit up targets. It’s no point bombing in high balls for May and Jake Lever to pick off.

THE CONCERN

Max Gawn — both at stoppages and in general play. Martin and Tim English must play out of their skins to nullify the Demons’ captain. Gawn is match-hardened, fit and healthy. By comparison, an undersized Martin has had limited preparation after playing his first game since Round 12 in the preliminary final. Martin is strong around stoppages, but is he match-fit to go with Gawn when he pushes hard forward? A disclaimer also remains on English and whether he can be a ruthless competitor on the big stage. How much does English want to hurt, work and compete to dethrone the best ruckman in the competition? The other concern for the Bulldogs is Alex Keath’s hamstring.

THE THEME

Bring the ball to ground, especially inside forward 50. You have to take away Melbourne’s intercept prowess, which includes keeping Lever honest. It also works into the hands of the Bulldogs, who won the ground ball count by 37 against Port Adelaide in their preliminary final. Every time the ball hit the ground in that game, there were Bulldogs players ready to pounce. The Bulldogs key forwards simply have to either mark the ball or bring it to ground to invite their small forwards like Mitch Hannan and Cody Weightman into the game.

THE STAR

Marcus Bontempelli. I love his demeanour as a level-headed and composed captain. The occasion won’t bother him at all. The best players see the game unfold before others do and Bontempelli can make a high-pressure game like a Grand Final stand still. His penetration by foot will be key in a game where territory will be immensely important and I would not be surprised if he spends some time playing out of the goalsquare where he can impact the scoreboard. Bontempelli missed out on the Brownlow Medal but could well finish the year with a Norm Smith Medal.

X-FACTOR

Mitch Hannan. The medium-size forward gives the Bulldogs’ attack a point of difference and has kicked six goals in an exceptional finals campaign so far. He is competitive, gives 100% effort, is good in the air, hits the ground ball contest with great intensity and instinctively applies pressure. Forward 50 tackling in finals is critical and that is what Hannan can provide for his team. Will he become Melbourne’s ghost, as a player they let go last year?

IF I WAS THE WESTERN BULLDOGS …

Keath to Ben Brown. Zaine Cordy to Tom McDonald. Bailey Williams and Easton Wood as a combination will have to spend time on Bailey Fritsch. Start Martin in the ruck and wind him up to provide really strong competition against Max Gawn. Use Josh Dunkley at stages throughout the game to engage Clayton Oliver, particularly at stoppages in general play. You need to try and limit his first-possession gains that Oliver is so elite at. I’d be conscious of Gawn and particularly his tendency to slide forward. Martin must go all the way with him, be physical and try to take away Gawn’s run and jump at the footy. At times, roll Smith and Treloar up to stoppages to outnumber the Demons and force Simon Goodwin’s hand on what he’s going to do. Defensively, engage Lever with Hannan and a bit of Josh Shache. Try to get the match-up there that works for you.

TAB ODDS
Head to Head — Melbourne $1.65, Westetrn Bulldogs $2.25

Line — Melbourne -8.5 points $1.90, Western Bulldogs +8.5 points $1.90

Norm Smith Medal — Christian Petracca $6, Clayton Oliver $7, Marcus Bontempelli $8, Max Gawn $9, Jack Macrae $11, Bailey Smith $15

MICK’S PREDICTION
Melbourne by 5 points

[bornadog]

Mick McGuane’s 2021 AFL Grand Final Preview: What to look for, who will win and why (https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/mick-mcguanes-2021-afl-grand-final-preview-what-to-look-for-who-will-win-and-why/news-story/f40e91def7cad55e9a092e172b55b2a3)

Defensively, engage Lever with Hannan and a bit of Josh Shache. Try to get the match-up there that works for you.



Must get Naughton on to Lever like we did in round 19. Not because we think May will beat Naughton, but we know Lever will have his hands full against Naughton. Naughton will not only nullify him, but will beat him in the air and on the ground. May will be taken care of by either Hannan (round 19), or Schache.

Harrison Petty will have fun on English, conceding almost 10cm (better check that one WOOFERS)

[Mofra]

Must get Naughton on to Lever like we did in round 19. Not because we think May will beat Naughton, but we know Lever will have his hands full against Naughton. Naughton will not only nullify him, but will beat him in the air and on the ground. May will be taken care of by either Hannan (round 19), or Schache.

Harrison Petty will have fun on English, conceding almost 10cm (better check that one WOOFERS)
That potentially leaves Schache as that hard running link player. His endurance is as good as any tall forward in the game today, only Ben Brown would rival him (or Blicavs if we're talking all KPPs). If Schache takes a few deep rotations he can test May's hamstring too.

English just needs to bring the ball to ground. I'm confident we can kick scores from stoppages and ground ball gets, but their tall defenders are several classes above what Port offered up.

[The bulldog tragician]

Mick McGuane’s 2021 AFL Grand Final Preview: What to look for, who will win and why (https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/mick-mcguanes-2021-afl-grand-final-preview-what-to-look-for-who-will-win-and-why/news-story/f40e91def7cad55e9a092e172b55b2a3)

The big dance is almost here and it shapes as an intriguing contest between two sides who go about things a little differently.

Collingwood 1990 premiership player Mick McGuane breaks down the Grand Final with this mega preview.

MELBOURNE

WHAT TO EXPECT

The Demons to back their brand, which has got them this far. They are a tough and uncompromising side that gets the fire started at the coalface with Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and James Harmes. The start of this Grand Final will be brutal in a physical sense. Melbourne will try and create a strong territory game. They will look to get the game on their terms on the back of their clearance-winning ability, a high kick-to-handball ratio and ruthless forward half pressure that has been a feature of their finals series so far. Effective tackling, which is a choice, will also be front of mind for Melbourne players, who will be out to assault the Western Bulldogs ball carriers in a manic and physical way. History has no relevance with this group — it’s all about them creating their own.

THE KEY

Stifle the Bulldogs’ strength at stoppages. Win the contested ball and clearances but, most importantly, post-clearance contested ball wins must be a priority. The Demons need to “hunt with grunt” and they have players who do that well in Oliver, Petracca and Viney. But keeping good shape and width off the ball is equally important. It adds vital defensive layers off the contest which must exist against the Bulldogs so they just can’t flick the ball around to get their offensive ball movement into gear. That didn’t happen when these sides last met in Round 19, with the Bulldogs scoring 46 points from clearances — their fifth-most of the season. It’s not only about winning stoppages, but how you defend them as well. The Demons must get the right balance of when to attack and when to defend. Always rolling the dice could lead to disastrous consequences.

THE CHALLENGE

Can the key forwards stand up? You’ve got Tom McDonald, who was almost traded last year, and Ben Brown, who wasn’t given a contract at North Melbourne before finding a new home. Here’s a chance for both of them to solidify the reasons why they are on Melbourne’s list. In Grand Final’s, key forwards simply must stand up and impose themselves in the air as well as hit the scoreboard — think Jack Riewoldt, Tom Lynch, Tom Boyd and Josh Kennedy. When these sides last met in Round 19, Melbourne’s goals per inside-50 percentage was only 17.6 per cent which was their fourth-lowest efficiency of the year. They can’t afford a return like that again.

THE CONCERN

The finals preparation. As good as the Demons have been all year, the league’s pre-Grand Final bye adds an element of concern. Entering the Grand Final, the Demons would have only played one game in 28 days. That’s not ideal, and most players who have been in this situation before would say they would prefer continuity to ensure they are match-hardened and in a routine. The questions will be, will it help or hinder the team’s performance? How have the players dealt with it? And have too many players already played the game in their head? The Demons won’t want to be five per cent off. The other concern is Steven May’s hamstring. If it pops early in the game, Melbourne is in strife.

THE THEME

Stay the course and believe in what has got you here. Melbourne has had a team-first attitude this year and I’ve always been a believer that individuals can contribute but teams win Grand Finals. Players like Angus Brayshaw, Ed Langdon, Harrison Petty, Alex Neal-Bullen, James Jordan and James Harmes all understand the significant roles they play. When perfected well the team benefits. The Demons players will also need to be flexible in-game defensively and potentially sacrifice their own games for the benefit of the team. Structurally, an “in game” adjustment might be required, especially if Bailey Smith gets off the chain.

THE STAR

Christian Petracca. He continues to thrive and has matured into an elite footballer on the back of commitment to his trade and improved fitness levels. Petracca is clearly one of the competition’s game-breakers and we’ve witnessed with Dustin Martin what a match winner can do in finals. Much like Martin, Petracca is a centre-forward player who has logged only seven per cent of his possessions this year in the defensive 50 and he possesses similar breakaway power from stoppages which is so dangerous. Petracca has kicked 27.18 this year — which is great conversion overall — but in finals he has managed only 2.2 against Brisbane and 1.2 against Geelong. Take his chances in front of goal this week and he could join Martin as a Norm Smith Medal winner.

X-FACTOR

Bailey Fritsch. The 188cm forward might be a left-field choice, but I’ve got question marks over whether the small-to-medium size Bulldogs defenders can keep the small-to-medium Melbourne forwards quiet. In his two games against the Bulldogs this year, Fritsch has kicked a combined five goals out of a team total of 22 goals. He’s an unsung hero who gets the job done with no fuss. He is the type of player who can have five kicks but kick four goals given his lethal kicking leg — meaning he could help Melbourne win the game.

IF I WAS MELBOURNE …

Steven May picks up Aaron Naughton. Harrison Petty goes to Tim English. A combination of Trent Rivers and Michael Hibberd goes to Cody Weightman. Then Jake Lever takes his pick of who he needs to play on for his creative intercepting game to thrive. Keeping Bailey Smith quiet will be a huge consideration given his out-of-this-world finals series. Smith is the only player since 1999 to average at least 20 disposals, 500m gained, five inside-50s and 2.5 goals a game in a finals series. You can ill-afford to let him roam free and must ensure his disposals are under pressure. I’d start James Harmes as a high half-forward but then have him roll up to engage Tom Liberatore in general play, allowing Christian Petracca the creative license to push forward. The message to Max Gawn would be to work hard back to support the defence but also slide forward and try and hit the scoreboard. Gawn must also spend some time out of the goalsquare when Luke Jackson rucks, which will force the Bulldogs defenders to readjust their match ups.

WESTERN BULLDOGS

WHAT TO EXPECT

A physical and brutal start. It’s got to come from Stefan Martin as an aggressive ruckman and Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae and Tom Liberatore in the middle. The centre bounce crew must set the scene. Winning territory and playing a strong forward-half game is the Bulldogs’ way and that’s when they play their best. The Bulldogs have a capacity to generate scores from inside-50s better than any other team so supply is the key, which generally comes from a committed, hardworking midfield group. Defending scores from stoppages will be a focus for the Bulldogs, who can’t allow Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca to latch onto Max Gawn’s ruck work and charge out of stoppages like they did against Geelong. The Bulldogs will most likely want to saturate the stoppages with extra numbers to help out their defence and kickstart their attack.

THE KEY

The Bulldogs’ ball movement against Melbourne’s measly defensive set-up. The Demons have been a great pressure team all year but their tackle efficiency during finals has gone through the roof to 69.2 per cent. Without the ball, they are a tough team to play against. That is going to test the Bulldogs’ ball movement and in big games effective ball use is a critical element. The Bulldogs will need to ensure they get the ball in the hands of their best ball users and decision makers at every opportunity to kickstart their offence — whether it be Marcus Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel or Bailey Dale. Lacking courage or conviction with ball movement will play into the hands of the Melbourne defenders. Time to be daring.

THE CHALLENGE

Mastering inside-50 efficiency. How the Bulldogs kick inside-50 will determine the result. When Luke Beveridge’s team has kicked 85 points or more this year they have a 15-0 record. When they beat Melbourne in Round 19, they reached that 85-point mark. When they lost to the Demons in Round 11, they managed only 59 points and recorded their third-lowest inside-50 efficiency of the year. The Bulldogs have got to isolate and separate and create one-on-ones with space to lead into. Aaron Naughton needs to test Steven May’s hamstring with his explosive leading and the Bulldogs’ ball carriers need to lower the eyes and look for short hit up targets. It’s no point bombing in high balls for May and Jake Lever to pick off.

THE CONCERN

Max Gawn — both at stoppages and in general play. Martin and Tim English must play out of their skins to nullify the Demons’ captain. Gawn is match-hardened, fit and healthy. By comparison, an undersized Martin has had limited preparation after playing his first game since Round 12 in the preliminary final. Martin is strong around stoppages, but is he match-fit to go with Gawn when he pushes hard forward? A disclaimer also remains on English and whether he can be a ruthless competitor on the big stage. How much does English want to hurt, work and compete to dethrone the best ruckman in the competition? The other concern for the Bulldogs is Alex Keath’s hamstring.

THE THEME

Bring the ball to ground, especially inside forward 50. You have to take away Melbourne’s intercept prowess, which includes keeping Lever honest. It also works into the hands of the Bulldogs, who won the ground ball count by 37 against Port Adelaide in their preliminary final. Every time the ball hit the ground in that game, there were Bulldogs players ready to pounce. The Bulldogs key forwards simply have to either mark the ball or bring it to ground to invite their small forwards like Mitch Hannan and Cody Weightman into the game.

THE STAR

Marcus Bontempelli. I love his demeanour as a level-headed and composed captain. The occasion won’t bother him at all. The best players see the game unfold before others do and Bontempelli can make a high-pressure game like a Grand Final stand still. His penetration by foot will be key in a game where territory will be immensely important and I would not be surprised if he spends some time playing out of the goalsquare where he can impact the scoreboard. Bontempelli missed out on the Brownlow Medal but could well finish the year with a Norm Smith Medal.

X-FACTOR

Mitch Hannan. The medium-size forward gives the Bulldogs’ attack a point of difference and has kicked six goals in an exceptional finals campaign so far. He is competitive, gives 100% effort, is good in the air, hits the ground ball contest with great intensity and instinctively applies pressure. Forward 50 tackling in finals is critical and that is what Hannan can provide for his team. Will he become Melbourne’s ghost, as a player they let go last year?

IF I WAS THE WESTERN BULLDOGS …

Keath to Ben Brown. Zaine Cordy to Tom McDonald. Bailey Williams and Easton Wood as a combination will have to spend time on Bailey Fritsch. Start Martin in the ruck and wind him up to provide really strong competition against Max Gawn. Use Josh Dunkley at stages throughout the game to engage Clayton Oliver, particularly at stoppages in general play. You need to try and limit his first-possession gains that Oliver is so elite at. I’d be conscious of Gawn and particularly his tendency to slide forward. Martin must go all the way with him, be physical and try to take away Gawn’s run and jump at the footy. At times, roll Smith and Treloar up to stoppages to outnumber the Demons and force Simon Goodwin’s hand on what he’s going to do. Defensively, engage Lever with Hannan and a bit of Josh Shache. Try to get the match-up there that works for you.

TAB ODDS
Head to Head — Melbourne $1.65, Westetrn Bulldogs $2.25

Line — Melbourne -8.5 points $1.90, Western Bulldogs +8.5 points $1.90

Norm Smith Medal — Christian Petracca $6, Clayton Oliver $7, Marcus Bontempelli $8, Max Gawn $9, Jack Macrae $11, Bailey Smith $15

MICK’S PREDICTION
Melbourne by 5 points

Am I overly sensitive or is he a bit lukewarm on us and more gushing on Melbourne’s strengths? Reading the text I thought we’d lose by five goals and the Melbourne ‘concern’ is only the extra week off. :mad:

[The Bulldogs Bite]

I think Lloyd is right - Petty will go to Naughton so that it frees May to play on English. Lever on Schache.

It protects May's hamstring and he can out-body English 1-v-1.

All counts on Petty being able to hold Naughty though, so I would be looking for Aaron to take him to the cleaners. English just needs to continually bring the ball to ground.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I think Lloyd is right - Petty will go to Naughton so that it frees May to play on English. Lever on Schache.

It protects May's hamstring and he can out-body English 1-v-1.

All counts on Petty being able to hold Naughty though, so I would be looking for Aaron to take him to the cleaners. English just needs to continually bring the ball to ground.

May is giving up some serious height to English. English just needs to make sure he doesn’t get pushed around too easily. We’ll have a similar problem down back with Jackson/Gawn though if Gardner isn’t playing. As usual, whichever midfield can do a better job at not allowing clean entry into the oppositions forward line will probably win.

[jeemak]

Am I overly sensitive or is he a bit lukewarm on us and more gushing on Melbourne’s strengths? Reading the text I thought we’d lose by five goals and the Melbourne ‘concern’ is only the extra week off. :mad:

I've actually been put off by the gushing to the extent I feel like it's been made difficult to really get some enjoyment and a buzz out of making the GF. Perhaps my expectations were artificially raised by what occurred in 2016. Perhaps the media is full of jerks.

[josie]

We have Dale, Daniel, Williams, Duryea as good to elite kicks out from backline. Who does Dees have that are this type of quality -Salem, Lever? I do not know Dees well enough to know.

I thought this, Big Stef’s competitiveness, our midfield depth, our finals experience, Bont and Naughty and Cody and possibly B.Smith are our strengths. Add to that Treloar who might just be in cusp of a great game and Dunks as a midfield defensive stopper & hardnut, reliability of Macrae & Libba’s cleverness and I think we are in with a mighty good chance. Have not mentioned English but wouldn’t it be great if he walked tall, put his body in the line & helped bring ball to ground for our smalls to pounce on.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

I've actually been put off by the gushing to the extent I feel like it's been made difficult to really get some enjoyment and a buzz out of making the GF. Perhaps my expectations were artificially raised by what occurred in 2016. Perhaps the media is full of jerks.

Yep, I actually haven't watched anything footy related this week because I'm sick of the Melbourne narrative.

I mean, Lloyd comes out and says their midfield is clearly better? You're kidding me.

If we win, I'm going to be throwing a LOT of egg around.

[comrade]

We have Dale, Daniel, Williams, Duryea as good to elite kicks out from backline. Who does Dees have that are this type of quality -Salem, Lever? I do not know Dees well enough to know.


Salem and Bowey are their best users from D50, Rivers is more a metres gained type and May can also thump it but Melbourne rank pretty lowly for disposal efficiency overall. They just prefer to gain territory, pressure the opposition and get it into dangerous positions inside 50 rather than cut teams apart through ball use.

We definitely have more elite users in our side. Finding time and space to use the ball well is the challenge against Melbourne.

[boydogs]

I think Lloyd is right - Petty will go to Naughton so that it frees May to play on English. Lever on Schache.

It protects May's hamstring and he can out-body English 1-v-1.

All counts on Petty being able to hold Naughty though, so I would be looking for Aaron to take him to the cleaners. English just needs to continually bring the ball to ground.

I would put May on Naughton if I were them. Only way to stop Naughton is stop his run at the ball. Lever to go for the marks while May bodies Naughton. Key for us is English to use his height or Schache to spoil, then its Flea time