This Team - The Paradox of Supporting them.

[mjp]

Does anyone else find themselves in a supporters paradox right now?

There is quite literally no team in the competition I don't think we can beat. Setting aside all of the responses about 'if we get selections right' etc, I genuinely think we can beat anyone.

Equally, we could lose to literally anyone and I would not be surprised.

I read the thread about our 'tough' run home. I look at it and am like, 'meh...we can account for all of those teams'. I look at it again and can see us losing at least half of them (but I have no idea which half). Part of me sees us going on a withering run like Richmond in 2019 and running the table. Another part? We win a couple, lose a couple, miss the finals and wring our hands!

Will the real Slim-Shady please stand up! I mean, it's time right??

[bornadog]

We are in a position where we can win every game in the run home, but agree we can also lose quite a few as well.

I am not really worried about any game coming up as I feel we have the talent that can beat any one any time.

I think a bit of luck also helps, especially if we can hold on to key players injury free.

In the end, it is up to the players if they have the energy and effort and the want to make finals and top four. Win every game and we finish 3rd (in my predictor)

[Bulldog Joe]

I am with you mjp, we can beat everyone.

However, we regularly conjure ways to lose to anyone as per Essendon and Hawthorn in 2021.

It seems that we only want to do the impossible and never play the percentages.

Totally Jekyll and Hyde.

[Mantis]

In every game we've played this year there's been periods where we've been completely on top and look like putting the opposition to the sword, but equally we've completed sucked for periods and looked like the worst team in the comp.

If we can even out the periods between our best & worst we can go on a big run and have the comp looking over their shoulders, but given the sample set of 2022 I have no faith we will.

[GVGjr]

Our GF finish last year and the way that we played throughout that year confirms that the list is a good one and our playing style is very competitive against the competitions best teams.
Where we have some challenges is that we have been more inconsistent this year than last. Our best is clearly good enough and if we can get on a roll we are a more than capable side.

It all starts this week against Brisbane and the next 3 or 4 weeks will tell the story. We are really entering the interesting part of the year and we should fear no team.

[Grantysghost]

It's like a 5 percent margin between our best and worst in my mind.
I know it's not reality but I feel unless we are super switched on and up for the fight we can get scored against quickly and heavily.

I'm loving West. He could just be the x factor in a really decent run. He is Libba mark 2. Has amazing vision, doesn't have Libba's skill by foot but his smarts are second to none. You can't train that.

I'm the same. We can beat Melbourne and lose to the Crows.

I have no idea which way it's going to go, but it's a fun ride ride never the less!

[MrMahatma]

It makes supporting us fun, and horrible! It makes hope spring eternal, and makes it soooo annoying when you see Carlton in the top 4! It's why I'll be at the Gabba on Thursday expecting a win, and expecting a loss at the same time.

We can definitely beat anyone, and the it's such a source of frustration.

I guess that's why it's a marathon, not a sprint. Or maybe it's both? You need to do well over a sustained period to make finals (ideally top 4) then you need to win in Sept. Tough to do.

[angelopetraglia]

In every loss we have had this year we very much looked like we could win the game at some point.

Round #1 Melbourne. We kicked eight consevutive goals. Were up by 21 points. We looked like we were going to run away with it.

Round #2 Carlton. We had more scoring shots. More inside 50s. We had 7 of the last 8 scoring shots. We kicked 12 behinds V Carltons 6. Lose by 12 points.

Round #4 Tigers. We kicked 7.19! We kicked 2.7 in the first quarter. The game should have been over at quarter time. Our worst loss for the season, but if we kicked straight early and took our chances we would have won that game. We had nine more inside 50s and lost by 38 points.

Round #6 Crows. Worst peformance of the year. Didn't really look like it all day but hit the front in the last quarter and were in the lead at the 23 minute mark of the last quarter.

Round #8 Port. Started well. Dominated the first part of the game but didn't take our chances again. Let them score to easily against the trend of play. Quarter time was 5.0 to our 4.4. Game got away from us after half time. But early we looked liked we had their measure.

Round #12 Geelong. 40 points down at the start of the second quarter. We closed within a goal twice in the last quarter but could not get the job done after such a poor start.

Who knows what you are going to get over four quarters let alone week to week. Nothing would suprise me. Our best footy has been good enough to match any team we have faced. However if we don't bring intent, pressure and focus we could lose to anyone.

[Happy Days]

It is unbelievably frustrating. We’re such a glass cannon and in every game (with the exception of playing with 15 players against Port) have either been in a position to win (Melbourne, Adelaide, Richmond) or had an extended period that demonstrated we were clearly the better side (Carlton, Geelong). But our midfield defensive lapses continue to expose our back 6 and also suggests we learnt exactly nothing from the Grand Final.

But when it’s good, it’s so good.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

I actually don't think we're that good.

I should clarify that statement. I think we are a 6-10 side.

Our midfield is overrated. Yes, it can pile on the damage v rubbish sides (think Norf, West Coast, Saints last year) but they are also prone to going missing for lengthy periods of time. On paper, it should be the best mid group in the game but I think it's about the 4th-6th best in reality.

Our forward half is about middle of the pack. Naughton is a star, Weightman is dangerous, West is quickly becoming dependable but there isn't a LOT else. Marra/Buku/Schache/Hannan/rotating mids aren't causing too much damage. Even still, I am encouraged by our forward group over the past 5-6 weeks. JJ is important and if we can get a couple of players back, I don't have an issue with our forward half.

But our back half is diabolical. That's putting it nicely. It's the sole reason I don't think we can beat Melbourne and why we'll probably fall short v Brisbane (and maybe Carlton). Keath is nowhere near his form of '21, Duryea is injured/dropped off a little and the rest are mostly 'attack first' (i.e. Daniel, Dale, Richards). I respect Gardner's effort and he has improved, but he's still barely AFL standard as the second key defender. O'Brien is OK and can play a role.

When I look at the top sides (Melbourne, Brisbane somewhat, Carlton, even Fremantle) they are able to hold up under pressure for a certain period of time largely thanks to their back half and how they set up. Yes, there's always examples of the opposite (Brisbane/Freo on the weekend, Melbourne a few weeks prior) but for the most part their defenders are dependable. I have NO faith we can repel any forward entry, even from bog average sides (Norf kicked 6? on us!).

Until we fix our defence, and it's largely personnel, I don't see how we win anything.

** While it is always easy to point the finger at our midfield, and yes they share the blame a lot of the time, the defenders need to actually DEFEND at times. We can't dominate games for 120 minutes. Imagine if our defence stood up in last year's GF and we were only 1 goal down at 3qtr time? **

[Grantysghost]

I actually don't think we're that good.

I should clarify that statement. I think we are a 6-10 side.

Our midfield is overrated. Yes, it can pile on the damage v rubbish sides (think Norf, West Coast, Saints last year) but they are also prone to going missing for lengthy periods of time. On paper, it should be the best mid group in the game but I think it's about the 4th-6th best in reality.

Our forward half is about middle of the pack. Naughton is a star, Weightman is dangerous, West is quickly becoming dependable but there isn't a LOT else. Marra/Buku/Schache/Hannan/rotating mids aren't causing too much damage. Even still, I am encouraged by our forward group over the past 5-6 weeks. JJ is important and if we can get a couple of players back, I don't have an issue with our forward half.

But our back half is diabolical. That's putting it nicely. It's the sole reason I don't think we can beat Melbourne and why we'll probably fall short v Brisbane (and maybe Carlton). Keath is nowhere near his form of '21, Duryea is injured/dropped off a little and the rest are mostly 'attack first' (i.e. Daniel, Dale, Richards). I respect Gardner's effort and he has improved, but he's still barely AFL standard as the second key defender. O'Brien is OK and can play a role.

When I look at the top sides (Melbourne, Brisbane somewhat, Carlton, even Fremantle) they are able to hold up under pressure for a certain period of time largely thanks to their back half and how they set up. Yes, there's always examples of the opposite (Brisbane/Freo on the weekend, Melbourne a few weeks prior) but for the most part their defenders are dependable. I have NO faith we can repel any forward entry, even from bog average sides (Norf kicked 6? on us!).

Until we fix our defence, and it's largely personnel, I don't see how we win anything.

** While it is always easy to point the finger at our midfield, and yes they share the blame a lot of the time, the defenders need to actually DEFEND at times. We can't dominate games for 120 minutes. Imagine if our defence stood up in last year's GF and we were only 1 goal down at 3qtr time? **

It's interesting. I think our long term is 5-10 (proven over time).

Our ceiling is 1 or 2. I think Melbourne and the Dogs are the two best sides in it.

[Mantis]

It is unbelievably frustrating. We’re such a glass cannon and in every game (with the exception of playing with 15 players against Port) have either been in a position to win (Melbourne, Adelaide, Richmond) or had an extended period that demonstrated we were clearly the better side (Carlton, Geelong). But our midfield defensive lapses continue to expose our back 6 and also suggests we learnt exactly nothing from the Grand Final.

But when it’s good, it’s so good.

Wouldn't it be nice if the backline could actually stand up under pressure occasionally?

The expectation that the midfield is going to totally dominant the opposition every week just isn't going to happen.

[Happy Days]

Wouldn't it be nice if the backline could actually stand up under pressure occasionally?

The expectation that the midfield is going to totally dominant the opposition every week just isn't going to happen.

Oh no doubt. It’s not a fair expectation but when you build a team like ours it is a practical reality.

[Mofra]

We lost to the Crows, yet made Collingwood look second rate.

It's worrying. We're not a team you can trust, we're 'conditional'.

[Sedat]

Great thread. I'd rather we have a ceiling that matches it with the absolute best in the comp (which I think we do), as opposed to a Sydney-esque perennial top 4-6 list that is not at the level of the real pointy end. The 2021 finals series was a thrilling ride until the last 40 minutes of the season - happy to risk that exhilarating ride again in 2022 if we're good enough.

Of course I'd rather have Melbourne 2021 best of both worlds but we aren't there yet in terms of the list.

[DOG GOD]

I actually don't think we're that good.

I should clarify that statement. I think we are a 6-10 side.

Our midfield is overrated. Yes, it can pile on the damage v rubbish sides (think Norf, West Coast, Saints last year) but they are also prone to going missing for lengthy periods of time. On paper, it should be the best mid group in the game but I think it's about the 4th-6th best in reality.

Our forward half is about middle of the pack. Naughton is a star, Weightman is dangerous, West is quickly becoming dependable but there isn't a LOT else. Marra/Buku/Schache/Hannan/rotating mids aren't causing too much damage. Even still, I am encouraged by our forward group over the past 5-6 weeks. JJ is important and if we can get a couple of players back, I don't have an issue with our forward half.

But our back half is diabolical. That's putting it nicely. It's the sole reason I don't think we can beat Melbourne and why we'll probably fall short v Brisbane (and maybe Carlton). Keath is nowhere near his form of '21, Duryea is injured/dropped off a little and the rest are mostly 'attack first' (i.e. Daniel, Dale, Richards). I respect Gardner's effort and he has improved, but he's still barely AFL standard as the second key defender. O'Brien is OK and can play a role.

When I look at the top sides (Melbourne, Brisbane somewhat, Carlton, even Fremantle) they are able to hold up under pressure for a certain period of time largely thanks to their back half and how they set up. Yes, there's always examples of the opposite (Brisbane/Freo on the weekend, Melbourne a few weeks prior) but for the most part their defenders are dependable. I have NO faith we can repel any forward entry, even from bog average sides (Norf kicked 6? on us!).

Until we fix our defence, and it's largely personnel, I don't see how we win anything.

** While it is always easy to point the finger at our midfield, and yes they share the blame a lot of the time, the defenders need to actually DEFEND at times. We can't dominate games for 120 minutes. Imagine if our defence stood up in last year's GF and we were only 1 goal down at 3qtr time? **

Couldnt have written it better myself TBB. Brilliant post.

And if I did, I’d probably be barraged for being negative ;)

Agree 100% on our mids. Over rated. When on song, brilliant. When not defending…putrid. Chocs to boiled lollie stuff
Fwd line is improving, and if Bruce can come back 80% then he will be good for us.
Backline is well…Gardner wouldn’t get a game with any team in the top 8. O’Brien is average, and Keath nothing like the player last year. If it wasn’t for Daniel and Dale’s ability down back, we would be very screwed.
Throw in no decent 2nd ruck, and yeah we are a 6-10 side. Start of the year I had us 11-11. I don’t think I’ll be that far off.

Regarding next 6 games, I can’t see us winning more than 3 but I could see us losing all 6.

[Axe Man]

I respect Gardner's effort and he has improved, but he's still barely AFL standard as the second key defender.


Gardner wouldn’t get a game with any team in the top 8.

Have to say I disagree with the Gardner calls. He is seemingly improving every game and I think he is at least at league standard as a second or third tall defender now. His spoiling has always been good but now he is starting to back himself to mark more often and his disposal is reliable.

Had a great game on Friday night.

https://i.postimg.cc/HxPhqLX7/gardner.jpg (https://postimg.cc/dkr6dwWq)

[bornadog]

Have to say I disagree with the Gardner calls. He is seemingly improving every game and I think he is at least at league standard as a second or third tall defender now. His spoiling has always been good but now he is starting to back himself to mark more often and his disposal is reliable.

Had a great game on Friday night.

https://i.postimg.cc/HxPhqLX7/gardner.jpg (https://postimg.cc/dkr6dwWq)

Still under rated by many

[ratsmac]

Gee this thread sums up any level headed Bulldogs supporter thinking. Could win em all, could lose em all.

We need to get a good run of no injuries to enable a settled 22. Yeah it's great to have depth and players that can come in and play a role, but it's the settled teams that seem to go on and have success. That goes to show that 2016 was an extraordinary feat.

I agree with TBB as well with if our mids aren't 100% on we our back six aren't able to stem the flow of goals. For example Hawthorn last quarter, GWS last quarter and they are bottom 6 sides. It also seems that every week a forward from the opposition kicks a bag of 4 or more goals. We leak goals which is a huge concern.

On the other hand our ability to score is 2nd best in the comp. This is all good and well in the H&A and a great spectacle but when finals time come (should we make it) it's the defensive game that stands up. The team that is hardest to score against normally triumph's over the front running scoring team. We are the latter.

I honestly go into most games expecting us to win knowing our best is definitely good enough but it's the 2022 version of inconsistent Bulldogs that doesn't surprise me when we lose. So frustrating. Is it personnel? Is it coaching? Is it game style/plan? I think it's a bit of all of them

[mjp]

Is it personnel? Is it coaching? Is it game style/plan? I think it's a bit of all of them

It could be any of them or all of them or none of them...it just depends on whether it is the 5-minute mark of the quarter on a day that Bont got out of bed on the RIGHT side or the 11-minute mark on a day he got out of bed on the LEFT.

How can you ever be certain of ANY thing.

[mjp]

I actually don't think we're that good.


Well - that kind of contradicts my idea that we are sometimes good and sometimes bad...sometimes very good, sometimes very bad.




Our midfield is overrated. Yes, it can pile on the damage v rubbish sides (think Norf, West Coast, Saints last year) but they are also prone to going missing for lengthy periods of time. On paper, it should be the best mid group in the game but I think it's about the 4th-6th best in reality.

So - you're sort of saying that whilst our midfielders are individually amazing, as a group they aren't that good? I get it. I still say it would be better if:

1/. We had one less 'primo' mid.
2/. We had a player with a clear defensive mindset/outlook.

I guess there isn't much you can do about the former except ride the hot hand a little more, but with '2' we have had heaps of time to develop a player into that sort of role.




Our forward half is about middle of the pack. Naughton is a star, Weightman is dangerous, West is quickly becoming dependable but there isn't a LOT else. Marra/Buku/Schache/Hannan/rotating mids aren't causing too much damage. Even still, I am encouraged by our forward group over the past 5-6 weeks. JJ is important and if we can get a couple of players back, I don't have an issue with our forward half.


Forward is absolutely average, made to look better by the sheer volume of supply AND the wildcard that is Naughton throwing himself at the contest creating havoc.



But our back half is diabolical. That's putting it nicely. It's the sole reason I don't think we can beat Melbourne and why we'll probably fall short v Brisbane (and maybe Carlton). Keath is nowhere near his form of '21, Duryea is injured/dropped off a little and the rest are mostly 'attack first' (i.e. Daniel, Dale, Richards). I respect Gardner's effort and he has improved, but he's still barely AFL standard as the second key defender. O'Brien is OK and can play a role.


Back half is above average - work together well as a unit, intercept well. Genuine small defender of the future is a concern but as long as Duryea is there...ooohhhh. Wait. Gardner's been great. O'Brien less than great but he competes and is 100% prepared to defend 1v1 when the opportunity arises. I wouldn't want to play back there as I would be uncomfortable in Bevo's sliding/shifting scheme where no-one really has a match-up but it can be hard to score against when things are going well.



When I look at the top sides (Melbourne, Brisbane somewhat, Carlton, even Fremantle) they are able to hold up under pressure for a certain period of time largely thanks to their back half and how they set up. Yes, there's always examples of the opposite (Brisbane/Freo on the weekend, Melbourne a few weeks prior) but for the most part their defenders are dependable. I have NO faith we can repel any forward entry, even from bog average sides (Norf kicked 6? on us!).

Until we fix our defence, and it's largely personnel, I don't see how we win anything.


You know Brisbane are ranked basically LAST for defending right now? I get what you're saying (I guess) but Carlton have been repeatedly run down in the last q's of games this year and Freo lost a couple of horrors...I'll give you the Dee's as the reigning premiers and I would have given you Geelong as examples of all that is good and holy...no chance I'm conceding on Freo (who I watch every week), Carlton or Brisbane...

[ratsmac]

I wouldn't want to play back there as I would be uncomfortable in Bevo's sliding/shifting scheme where no-one really has a match-up but it can be hard to score against when things are going well.


That's just it isn't it. I often look back and think gee Keath had a few kicked on him today or Gardner or whoever. But then find out that they weren't on that player at the said time. They are constantly switching opponents. No one gets settled. Yeah make a move if someone is getting off the chain I get it, rotating opponents constantly I don't. How do you do homework on your opponent when it could be anyone!

It might sound good in theory on the whiteboard but it doesn't seem to be helping our boys out on the field.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Well - that kind of contradicts my idea that we are sometimes good and sometimes bad...sometimes very good, sometimes very bad.

I don't disagree with the notion we can be very good and very bad, often within the same game, but this year I'm not sure we've beaten many good sides. Sydney game was dominance on our behalf aside from kicking straight, but I can't think of any other 'great' wins.

Losses to Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond, and especially the Geelong game has me convinced we're not a top side.

The next 5 weeks will tell us everything though.


So - you're sort of saying that whilst our midfielders are individually amazing, as a group they aren't that good? I get it. I still say it would be better if:

1/. We had one less 'primo' mid.
2/. We had a player with a clear defensive mindset/outlook.

I guess there isn't much you can do about the former except ride the hot hand a little more, but with '2' we have had heaps of time to develop a player into that sort of role.

Yeah exactly.

Agree on both of your points and credit where it's due, I'm pretty sure you questioned Treloars recruitment at the time.

I still don't mind us getting him and trying to maximise a strength but I don't believe we have a back half capable of holding any tide.

Figuratively speaking if we swapped midfields with Melbourne, would there be a big difference? If anything Melbourne would score a lot more... We might be a bit better defensively with the likes of Langdon.


Forward is absolutely average, made to look better by the sheer volume of supply AND the wildcard that is Naughton throwing himself at the contest creating havoc.

Agreed although I'm optimistic we can continue to improve as personnel returns. Maybe not this year, but next if Bruce can return to a decent level, Marra improves, and we get something fresh from a Bedendo/Jones type. There's a few ifs but I don't think this group is THAT far away.


Back half is above average - work together well as a unit, intercept well. Genuine small defender of the future is a concern but as long as Duryea is there...ooohhhh. Wait. Gardner's been great. O'Brien less than great but he competes and is 100% prepared to defend 1v1 when the opportunity arises. I wouldn't want to play back there as I would be uncomfortable in Bevo's sliding/shifting scheme where no-one really has a match-up but it can be hard to score against when things are going well.

Wasn't there a stat going around showing we lose more 1-v-1s in the back half than any top 10 side? I think our back half tries but the personnel is wrong. Our back half game last year was heavily reliant on Keath and Duryea who I thought had AA calibre years, but have been nowhere near that level this season.

I'm not sure we've been hard to score against at any stage this year. Top sides put us to the sword in patches and poor sides have scored freely (North, Giants, Hawks).


You know Brisbane are ranked basically LAST for defending right now? I get what you're saying (I guess) but Carlton have been repeatedly run down in the last q's of games this year and Freo lost a couple of horrors...I'll give you the Dee's as the reigning premiers and I would have given you Geelong as examples of all that is good and holy...no chance I'm conceding on Freo (who I watch every week), Carlton or Brisbane...

Brisbane is why I mentioned somewhat - they mainly cannot get it done against quality sides when the pressure is really on. I think Andrews/Adams is better than what we have and I think their issues are more midfield (see Melbourne game).

Freo I'll bow to your judgement, but to be fair this is the first year of looking like playing finals with this list. Had some pretty poor games but I like what they are building towards and when they get it right, they stifle sides.

Carlton is an interesting one and hard to judge given their injuries to key personnel. Still doing pretty well considering, and I'd rather be defending solid leads than coughing then up early like we did v Geelong.

My point is that you don't necessarily need a top 4 defensive unit, but I wouldn't rank ours in the top 10. The top 4-5 are comfortably better than us in that area of the ground, and whilst no side is without flaw, I think our back half flaw is enormous and no midfield can cover it.

[Happy Days]

I’ll need to review that 1-on-1 stat because I understood it to be as a percentage rather than gross losses, and that we also had by far the least 1-on-1 contests inside D50, or at least this has been the case usually. Not to say that our key defenders are great one out but think that stat is by design.

Edit - looking quickly at the raw numbers I don’t think this is accurate for 2022