Offensive and Defensive review

[bornadog]

Richard Little - data Scientist at VIS and former Football Analyst at EFC, reviews Bulldogs Offensive and defensive

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb3tzXZUEAAjKjp?format=jpg&name=small

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb3t0QQVQAAixGX?format=png&name=900x900

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb3t1JdVUAA5NA0?format=png&name=medium

[bornadog]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb3t18xVUAAd_P_?format=png&name=medium

[bornadog]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb3t6r3VsAAEAzj?format=jpg&name=medium

[bornadog]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb3t79ZUcAA59V5?format=png&name=medium

[bornadog]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb3t846UYAAUASR?format=jpg&name=medium

[bornadog]

Overall defensive system needs a big overhaul.

We need a new defensive assistant coach

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Overall defensive system needs a big overhaul.

We need a new defensive assistant coach

I've been saying it for a while, but as much as it's about structure, it's also personnel based.

In simple terms, our defenders can't defend.

Duryea is very good but has maybe 1 year left, Keath looks like he should retire, Gardy has improved but not the type we can build around. I had faith in Richards, but his EF was the WORST performance/meltdown I have seen. I know VDM has copped it, but Richards was actually worse. Dale is OK at times, but we know he's an attacker. Daniel has obvious limitations.

We really need a shake up in terms of our defensive personnel as much as we do defensive structure. For one, I'd be moving Daniel or Dale further up the ground - possibly both if we can't improve the connection between forwards and mids.

[DOG GOD]

I've been saying it for a while, but as much as it's about structure, it's also personnel based.

In simple terms, our defenders can't defend.

Duryea is very good but has maybe 1 year left, Keath looks like he should retire, Gardy has improved but not the type we can build around. I had faith in Richards, but his EF was the WORST performance/meltdown I have seen. I know VDM has copped it, but Richards was actually worse. Dale is OK at times, but we know he's an attacker. Daniel has obvious limitations.

We really need a shake up in terms of our defensive personnel as much as we do defensive structure. For one, I'd be moving Daniel or Dale further up the ground - possibly both if we can't improve the connection between forwards and mids.

We need a QUALITY A GRADE FB….Gardner is not it. He’s a 3rd defender type.
I’m not sold on Jones until I see him play again.

For mine, we need a FB and CHB who can beat opposition one on one.

And we need 2 of the other 4 to be able to do it as well.

Dale is an attacker. Get him one out with an opponent and he’d lose 8/10 times.

[bornadog]

We need a QUALITY A GRADE FB….Gardner is not it. He’s a 3rd defender type.
I’m not sold on Jones until I see him play again.

For mine, we need a FB and CHB who can beat opposition one on one.

And we need 2 of the other 4 to be able to do it as well.

Dale is an attacker. Get him one out with an opponent and he’d lose 8/10 times.

I agree on who we need, but based on the analysis by Richard, doesn't matter who plays in the backline, it is the system that is broken and we need to look at it before we get players in.

[Axe Man]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fb3t846UYAAUASR?format=jpg&name=medium

The general consensus has long been that our defenders can't defend and are exposed one on one but this actually refutes that.

Our one on one defensive win rate is actually really high, but we aren't forcing the opposition to kick to one on ones often enough. That surely has to be on the midfield more so than the defence.

[Grantysghost]

The general consensus has long been that our defenders can't defend and are exposed one on one but this actually refutes that.

Our one on one defensive win rate is actually really high, but we aren't forcing the opposition to kick to one on ones often enough. That surely has to be on the midfield more so than the defence.

I think our midfield is mega one paced.

It's why I can't understand why Treloar isn't used more with Smith at times.

Bont, Treloar, Smith is a rotation I'd have up my sleeve.

[DOG GOD]

I think our midfield is mega one paced.

It's why I can't understand why Treloar isn't used more with Smith at times.

Bont, Treloar, Smith is a rotation I'd have up my sleeve.

Maybe because neither have a defensive bone in their body ?

[Grantysghost]

Maybe because neither have a defensive bone in their body ?

They'd fit right in then!

Treloar used to be a reasonably good contested player.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Treloar used to be a reasonably good contested player.

On the eye test, it feels like he's really dropped away in this respect. If anything at the Pies he was too 'inside' and didn't use his pace enough.

Thought his balance last year was pretty good pre-injury, but this year he hasn't seemed to effect the game in the inside OR the outside.

[Grantysghost]

On the eye test, it feels like he's really dropped away in this respect. If anything at the Pies he was too 'inside' and didn't use his pace enough.

Thought his balance last year was pretty good pre-injury, but this year he hasn't seemed to effect the game in the inside OR the outside.

He dropped about ten kegs I believe probably to help with injuries.

[Vred]

Overall defensive system needs a big overhaul.

We need a new defensive assistant coach

We really need to be into Matthew Scarlett's ear, he isn't doing anything at the moment and god knows he helped build Geelongs current defense into what it is.

[MrMahatma]

That’s great analysis. Thanks for sharing Bad.

It points to system based defence but we’d also want to be in the top few for defensive contents. I think the whole system and personel need a look. How would our ability to go direct change if we intercept more?

I’m hopeful we can turn it around quickly.

[GVGjr]

There was a real trend late in the year for teams to employ taggers on opposition star players and it seemed to work well.
I can see some clubs embracing this and others ignoring it completely but I hope that we are open to looking at it.

[1eyedog]

The general consensus has long been that our defenders can't defend and are exposed one on one but this actually refutes that.

Our one on one defensive win rate is actually really high, but we aren't forcing the opposition to kick to one on ones often enough. That surely has to be on the midfield more so than the defence.

No its actually saying that our midfield are trying their guts out to ensure our defenders aren't caught out in one on one situations. Our one on one win rate is pretty high but the number of one on ones we are involved in compared to othe teams is really low and that is at least something the midfield is doing right at least most of the time.

Agree with BAD the system is broken. We dont rate or trust our defenders one on one and we've developed a game style to protect them that just isn't working for whatever reasons.

[jeemak]

The general consensus has long been that our defenders can't defend and are exposed one on one but this actually refutes that.

Our one on one defensive win rate is actually really high, but we aren't forcing the opposition to kick to one on ones often enough. That surely has to be on the midfield more so than the defence.

Bingo. If you waltz the ball through a defencive structure you're not facing one on ones, you're benefitting from forwards in space to kick to because the defence hasn't had a chance to roll back/ handover effectively.

A lot of our problems forward are the result of issues in defence and a lot of our defencive issues are the result of poor form further up the ground.

These are great pieces of information, but they can't be looked at in isolation when much of the game is played with two thirds or more of the players occupying the same half to two thirds of the ground a lot of the time.

We handball the football backwards and laterally a lot of the time, and whilst it grants us possession it means defencive structures have time to adjust and get into position to defend our forward movement when we do decide to move it forward. The good midfields find a way to run and handball forward through the defence and I want to see more of that from us.

[Scorlibo]

Just having a look at our defenders' one on one record - there are 88 defenders this season to have faced at least 20 one on ones. Keath ranks =43/88 with a loss rate of 25%, Gardner ranks 54/88 with a loss rate of 26%, Richards 72/88 with a loss rate of 33%, O'Brien 86/88 with a loss rate of 40%

The top five may surprise - Noah Answerth, Ben Paton, Griffin Logue, Nick Blakey and Steven May.

[Boots]

For me the two big takeaways are:

1) although 'handball club' style football confuses opponents' defence, we are too indirect with it so we waste the element of surprise it generates - and we are "reluctant to kick to a contest" in offense

It's felt to me for a while that because of how we've reworked the forward line, handball club and goals on the run is on the way out at the club as a tactic in favour of kicks inside fwd 50, but in moments of pressure the players seem to default to it because of the amount of time they've put into it. So the indirectness is a result of the fact that handball-happy football is what we do when we're out of ideas.

This is compounded by the fact that we don't trust kicking to the forward line! So chemistry across the forward 50 arc is missing and needs attention.

2) On defence: "quite a low pressure style that their structure couldn't handle. The 3rd worst team at generating intercepts, which given their ability to win contests was head scratching"

I think we all know the reasons for this one - our defenders aren't up to par with the rest of the list, and to be able to run both ways all game is beyond the fitness of our mids (and might actually be too much to sustainably ask of anyone except a handful in the league).

But, can we fix this with the cattle we've got? Is this why we keep rotating mids through the backline, hoping that they'll take their contested skills back there?

[Axe Man]

No its actually saying that our midfield are trying their guts out to ensure our defenders aren't caught out in one on one situations. Our one on one win rate is pretty high but the number of one on ones we are involved in compared to othe teams is really low and that is at least something the midfield is doing right at least most of the time.

Agree with BAD the system is broken. We dont rate or trust our defenders one on one and we've developed a game style to protect them that just isn't working for whatever reasons.

Sorry but I disagree - I think you are misinterpreting the numbers. As a defence we want the ball kicked to a contest, not to a free player. We are not forcing the opposition to kick to a contest enough. We certainly aren't forcing them to kick it to us (eg an intercept) anywhere near enough. Therefore we are allowing them to kick to free players in their forward 50.

Without checking the stats it feels like we have been giving up too many forward 50 marks lately and that is often fatal.

[1eyedog]

Sorry but I disagree - I think you are misinterpreting the numbers. As a defence we want the ball kicked to a contest, not to a free player. We are not forcing the opposition to kick to a contest enough. We certainly aren't forcing them to kick it to us (eg an intercept) anywhere near enough. Therefore we are allowing them to kick to free players in their forward 50.

Without checking the stats it feels like we have been giving up too many forward 50 marks lately and that is often fatal.

I thought I read somewhere recently where they discussed that the Dogs game style was to defend the back half of the ground and try to limit the amount of one on ones our backs face. As mentioned we do win them, but we do also face the least if any other AFL team so the chain is only as strong as its weakest link. If the midfield fails to defend we have seen what happens.

This from Zinta and Montagna.

...Jones, a one-on-one defensive specialist, will join a side that appears to be executing a game plan specifically designed to avoid such contests for fear of what it might mean.

“I would think he’s got a game plan that he thinks best suits his list. He probably thinks he hasn’t got defenders that are capable of defending one-on-one against a big monster at fullback, so he’s relying on a team defence to support each other,” Montagna said.

I think they’re the worst at defending one-on-one but they defend one-on-one the least of any team in the comp.

“Maybe if he has different personnel back there he can defend differently.”

THE STATS

So, where must the Dogs improve in 2023?

Unsurprisingly, it’s all about defence.

The Dogs were the fourth-worst team in 2022 for opposition defensive 50 to inside 50 percentage (23.2%) and the third-worst at conceding points from their opposition’s defensive half (35.7 per game).

In a system that appears to be designed to protect the backhalf, it’s little wonder numbers like those have seen the Dogs recede somewhat in 2022.

They've also imported Little's data in the article so assume they are directly referencing it.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/western-bulldogs/afl-news-2022-western-bulldogs-analysis-luke-beveridge-contract-game-plan-trade-period-recruits-season-review-how-to-improve/news-story/3b31c97c0891e75162777808aa01b911

[Axe Man]

I thought I read somewhere recently where they discussed that the Dogs game style was to defend the back half of the ground and try to limit the amount of one on ones our backs face. As mentioned we do win them, but we do also face the least if any other AFL team so the chain is only as strong as its weakest link. If the midfield fails to defend we have seen what happens.

This from Zinta and Montagna.

...Jones, a one-on-one defensive specialist, will join a side that appears to be executing a game plan specifically designed to avoid such contests for fear of what it might mean.

“I would think he’s got a game plan that he thinks best suits his list. He probably thinks he hasn’t got defenders that are capable of defending one-on-one against a big monster at fullback, so he’s relying on a team defence to support each other,” Montagna said.

I think they’re the worst at defending one-on-one but they defend one-on-one the least of any team in the comp.

“Maybe if he has different personnel back there he can defend differently.”

THE STATS

So, where must the Dogs improve in 2023?

Unsurprisingly, it’s all about defence.

The Dogs were the fourth-worst team in 2022 for opposition defensive 50 to inside 50 percentage (23.2%) and the third-worst at conceding points from their opposition’s defensive half (35.7 per game).

In a system that appears to be designed to protect the backhalf, it’s little wonder numbers like those have seen the Dogs recede somewhat in 2022.

They've also imported Little's data in the article so assume they are directly referencing it.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/western-bulldogs/afl-news-2022-western-bulldogs-analysis-luke-beveridge-contract-game-plan-trade-period-recruits-season-review-how-to-improve/news-story/3b31c97c0891e75162777808aa01b911

I don't disagree with any of that. We do try to protect our back 6 but it just isn't working. The numbers we are talking about however suggest our backline perhaps aren't quite as bad as defending as is made out, although I'm not quite sure how they reconcile with those individual one on one losses quoted by Scorlibo that appear quite poor.

I think it's clear our systems need an overhaul. This is quite relevant from an article shared by Boots in the assistant coach thread:


In 2022, the Dogs were the only team to allow opponents to execute at 70 per cent or better by foot while ceding the competition’s highest overall disposal efficiency.

Being able to move the footy at absolute will against them resulted in opposition forward entries converted into marks at the highest rate in the league, which unsurprisingly helped opponents convert 24.2 per cent of their inside 50s into goals – a category in which only West Coast, Essendon, North Melbourne and Adelaide fared worse.
Put simply, playing against the 2022 Bulldogs was the equivalent of manoeuvring a knife through hot butter with the team parading as a defensive train wreck that was as disorganised as it was disinterested.

Link (https://footyology.com.au/dogs-finals-demise-leaves-them-in-a-confusing-place/)