What’s your realistic best case scenario this trade period?

[bulldogtragic]

Since there’s nothing new to talk about, give me your best realistic outcome.

For example:

After points trades with Brisbane (per my post in another thread) getting Picks 21 and later pick this year, securing Lobb with Pick 21, Rayner/Lohmann and Future First (pick swaps the iron it out).

At the end of the trade period:

1. Jones (replacing Cordy)
2. Lobb (replacing Martin)
3. Rayner/Lohmann (mid and/or forward replacing Wallis)
4. Pick 11 (best available)
5. Mid range pick (needs - ruck to develop, crumbing forward pocket allowing JJ to wing in time)
6. Mid range pick from Hunter (needs - as above)

7. Future 1st at a minimum, perhaps upgraded Future 4th


6 Players IN

6 Players OUT - Dunkley, Cordy, Hunter, Martin, Wallis, Butler (Schache kept for KPP insurance)

[Bulldog Joe]

Since there’s nothing new to talk about, give me your best realistic outcome.

For example:

After points trades with Brisbane (per my post in another thread) getting Picks 21 and later pick this year, securing Lobb with Pick 21, Rayner/Lohmann and Future First (pick swaps the iron it out).

At the end of the trade period:

1. Jones (replacing Cordy)
2. Lobb (replacing Martin)
3. Rayner/Lohmann (mid and/or forward replacing Wallis)
4. Pick 11 (best available)
5. Mid range pick (needs - ruck to develop, crumbing forward pocket allowing JJ to wing in time)
6. Mid range pick from Hunter (needs - as above)

7. Future 1st at a minimum, perhaps upgraded Future 4th


6 Players IN

6 Players OUT - Dunkley, Cordy, Hunter, Martin, Wallis, Butler (Schache kept for KPP insurance)

I think you have confused the best case/ realistic terminology.

What you propose is close to best case, just make it Rayner with everything else.

Realistic we don't get a player from Brisbane but Dunks signs on for 1 year to get to FA when we get compensation for wherever he decides to go ....and we win the 2023 flag anyway.

[Axe Man]

....and we win the 2023 flag anyway.

Is it acceptable to boo a player from your own team when he accepts his premiership medallion? Asking for a friend.

[bulldogtragic]

I think you have confused the best case/ realistic terminology.

What you propose is close to best case, just make it Rayner with everything else.

Realistic we don't get a player from Brisbane but Dunks signs on for 1 year to get to FA when we get compensation for wherever he decides to go ....and we win the 2023 flag anyway.

Yeah, I was debating the language. Perhaps not completely and utterly fanciful best case outcome.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Desperate needs case: We are a ruckman and KPD short. We were short in this regard 2 years ago. We tried to address the ruckman with Martin but that experiment should have ended last year.

We have Jones coming in but Cordy going out and Keath basically falling apart. I don't know or understand the clubs plans here. I feel we've been far too inactive in addressing these needs and it's sounding like we're going to simply retain Martin and hope Jones fixes our issues. Not exactly encouraging. Lobb can be a solution to the ruck but unless we plan on sending Naughton back, we don't REALLY need him. I like the idea of topping up with Lobb but imo we have much more urgent needs elsewhere that need addressing.

The midfield is the other concern although maybe not from a talent perspective. We don't have enough physicality or discipline in there. Libba and Dunks were the best in this regard and now we're losing one of them. I hate the thought of relying on Mccomb to step up. It'd be ideal to draft a mid with our first pick as the cupboard is getting bare.

I won't have high hopes next season unless we can somehow squeeze trades out of nowhere. We just aren't ambitious enough. I'd be content with 2 first rounders for Dunkley with some change going back but we REALLY need to address our ruck and defence woes.

[Bulldog Revolution]

6. Mid range pick from Hunter (needs - as above)



Actually, I think its in our best interests if Hunter has tested the market, and found out there isn't much interest in him, and for him to take stock, get his life in order, and get back to being close to the footballer he was, and person he must have been around the club to have been part of the leadership setup.

As much as he's had a frustrating 2 years, his ability to cover ground, and help us retain possession has been part of our best footy

[Happy Days]

Leaving the personal issue speculation to one side, Hunter is still definitely an AFL player, and I don't think we can afford to lose him.

Hopefully whatever is hurting him is something he can reel in.

[EasternWest]

Actually, I think its in our best interests if Hunter has tested the market, and found out there isn't much interest in him, and for him to take stock, get his life in order, and get back to being close to the footballer he was, and person he must have been around the club to have been part of the leadership setup.

As much as he's had a frustrating 2 years, his ability to cover ground, and help us retain possession has been part of our best footy


Leaving the personal issue speculation to one side, Hunter is still definitely an AFL player, and I don't think we can afford to lose him.

Hopefully whatever is hurting him is something he can reel in.

I agree with both of you.

My head says offload him but my heart says wrap him up and give him what he needs and get him to his best.

He's been a very good player for us at his peak, I just worry that knob is a bit deeply rooted inside him.

[bulldogtragic]

I've got a feeling, they will offer their Future First for Dunkley. They will identify a club with a high academy/father-son kid. Package two of their second rounders (a future fourth if needed too) together to get that clubs Future First (a draft point trade effectively that would be approximately Pick 10 in DP's at a rough guess) and then package those two late First Rounders for Dunkley. Now, they're offering two first rounders as demanded.

Perhaps if generous, an upgrade from Pick 30 into Pick 21 (for Lobb) which they can now afford to ice the deal - as they don't really need that difference in points.

They've got all the draft points they need right now.

[DOG GOD]

What I’m expecting…

Jones in….

And go into next year with English, sweet and Martin as our rucks.

Very very very underwhelming.
We just aren’t doing enough while other teams are getting stronger, we are drinking cups of tea and eating scones at whitten oval.

[Bulldog4life]

What I’m expecting…

Jones in….

And go into next year with English, sweet and Martin as our rucks.

Very very very underwhelming.
We just aren’t doing enough while other teams are getting stronger, we are drinking cups of tea and eating scones at whitten oval.

I love doing that.

[bulldogtragic]

I've got a feeling, they will offer their Future First for Dunkley. They will identify a club with a high academy/father-son kid. Package two of their second rounders (a future fourth if needed too) together to get that clubs Future First (a draft point trade effectively that would be approximately Pick 10 in DP's at a rough guess) and then package those two late First Rounders for Dunkley. Now, they're offering two first rounders as demanded.

Perhaps if generous, an upgrade from Pick 30 into Pick 21 (for Lobb) which they can now afford to ice the deal - as they don't really need that difference in points.

They've got all the draft points they need right now.

My bad trying to use an iphone to go through pages and columns.

They need another second rounder to pull this off, having shifted one to GCS. Something like upgrading their Future Third into a Second, and a 'spare' Future Fourth into a Third. Then they are good to go. If they can try to flog Mathison or similar for a upgrade/s next year, then they're good to use this strategy to 'offer two First Rounders'.

[Grantysghost]

I love doing that.

We had scones at the last game of the year at Marvel.

Best day ever.

Made me re commit to the player sponsors.

I'll never forget being in a corporate box at the G back in the 90s with work and handing plates of food and drink out the window to the Tigers members.

Seeing all these grizzled old tigers people eating scones and enjoying a charcuterie board was something I will never forget.

We may have eased out a bottle or two of red as well.

[bulldogtragic]

If GCS can upgrade their future second, into a future first. Then draft points trade it to Brisbane for 2 x future seconds (so GCS cover their academy kids next year) - assuming Brisbane do some very minor trading to get it, or get the special dispensation from the AFEL apparently being sought to trade their Future First (to us), and their future second as well (possibly in a deal with GCS).

They’ve got Gunston as good as done (finalised tonight/tomorrow for just a third rounder - possibly a future swap to get closer to the GCS Future First), with Ashcroft & Fletcher done for points.

Say we can’t convince a player to request a trade.

They offer us two Firsts as we demanded. They’re just Future Firsts in the range of Pick 16-19, x 2 (with bids pushing out next year). Do you accept it? Ask for an upgrade from 30 into 21 to secure Lobb as a bonus? Demand a player to the end? Or accept we got out manoeuvred in such an outcome and hit the draft next year with 3 mid to late first rounders?

What do we do?



If you’re playing at home; Their math:

Picks: 21, 34, 35, 36, 38, 48, 55, 56

Points 878, 542, 522, 502, 465, 302, 207, 194 = 3,612

3,612
-2,400 (Ashcroft Pick 1, after 20% Discount)
————

1,212
-302 (Gunston 3rd Rounder, Pick 48)
————
910 (about Pick 14 after 20% Discount for Fletcher)


They’ve done 3 of 4 on their to do list.

[bulldogtragic]

No takers?

So I’ll go. Assuming the above scenario and assuming we can’t get a player to come from Brisbane, then 2 x Future Firsts is probably the best we can get.

A bonus upgrade of 30 into 21 that secures Lobb (since the club wants him) is probably the best case scenario. But might also have to push back 39 into their 48 for points though.

Here’s hoping we can convince a quality player out of them.

[GVGjr]

Worst case scenario is he walks to the PSD. No real winners there
Likely case scenario upgraded pick 30 to 21 to get the Lobb deal done and a F1 and F2
Best case F1 and F2 plus a player like Payne.

[Bulldog4life]

Worst case scenario is he walks to the PSD. No real winners there
Likely case scenario upgraded pick 30 to 21 to get the Lobb deal done and a F1 and F2
Best case F1 and F2 plus a player like Payne.

He is a bit of a fumbler and unreliable kick from what I have seen.
Best case for me F1 pick and trade in Rayner and put him on Dunk's salary which is more than he gets at Lions.
Worse case is PSD but happy for our team not to get bent over, stick to our guns if it comes to that. Feel strongly about it and have emailed the club accordingly.

[FrediKanoute]

So far this trade period I have it as a C-. Jones is good, but losing Dunks for nothing and not gettting Lobb and losing Cordy is all pretty poor.

[Boots]

Is it just me or are we being more shafted than usual this trade period.

I read on The Other Forum that the problem is this draft is not very deep so picks over about 15 aren't worth much, but picks next year are pretty good because it's meant to be deeper (grain of salt ofc). In the Lobb thread someone noted that our 27 became a 30 (due to compo picks I assume) which isn't our fault but it's hampering our ability to get the Lobb trade done. Then there's Dunks' awful choice of Brisbane for his destination.

I know we 'opted out' of the last two trades to get two #1 picks in years we were otherwise competitive, and our inability to attract good trades means the trade period isn't our friend (compared to, say, Geelong or Hawthorn), but even then we're just remarkably over a barrel and it's leaving a very sour taste in my mouth (even more than having to watch Geelong win).

[DOG GOD]

This was supposed to be the trade period where up to 40 players might move clubs..(not my words, media hype) but could end up being one of the worst.

I can see Lobb and Dunkley both being done in the last 2-3 hours of wedn deadline, not giving us any chance to look at anything else.

[The Doctor]

This was supposed to be the trade period where up to 40 players might move clubs..(not my words, media hype) but could end up being one of the worst.

I can see Lobb and Dunkley both being done in the last 2-3 hours of wedn deadline, not giving us any chance to look at anything else.

I'm sure the AFL will stage manage it that the Dunkley, Jackson & JHF deals are done late in order to attract high level hits on their website and viewers to their screening platforms. Good for advertising $$

[AshMac]

Does anyone genuinely think Rayner is a possibility?

I don’t have an inside track but I’d assume they have both arms wrapped around him tight.

[bulldogtragic]

Does anyone genuinely think Rayner is a possibility?

I don’t have an inside track but I’d assume they have both arms wrapped around him tight.

I wish, but I doubt it, I’d think we’d have heard something on the rumour mill. The best chance was to throw a heap of cash at him and gave him request a trade. But no rumours of us doing that either. The most we’ve heard is that the club is open to accepting a player from them of first round value. From there it’s a small list of semi gettable players that could happen.

[Mofra]

They offer us two Firsts as we demanded. They’re just Future Firsts in the range of Pick 16-19, x 2 (with bids pushing out next year). Do you accept it? Ask for an upgrade from 30 into 21 to secure Lobb as a bonus? Demand a player to the end? Or accept we got out manoeuvred in such an outcome and hit the draft next year with 3 mid to late first rounders?
Honestly - yes.

We have three future first round picks, and clubs can trade picks right up to draft night. GCS want to bank points for next year and GWS have a truckload of picks this year. West Coast have two picks in the 20s this year (as it stands) and the Swans currently have two 2021 picks in the teens.

There's every chance we can trade our picks after trade week to get a second crack at the first round this year, or a first and two early seconds.

[bulldogtragic]

Honestly - yes.

We have three future first round picks, and clubs can trade picks right up to draft night. GCS want to bank points for next year and GWS have a truckload of picks this year. West Coast have two picks in the 20s this year (as it stands) and the Swans currently have two 2021 picks in the teens.

There's every chance we can trade our picks after trade week to get a second crack at the first round this year, or a first and two early seconds.

I’m confident that GCS should end up with a late future first. Brisbane just need to upgrade their future 3rd (into a second) and a 4th (they have two, into a third) and they can offload two second rounders and anything else to get that first off GCS. Is Mathieson alone worth a those modest future upgrades, or can they get other fringe players to make up the upgrades?

[Mofra]

I’m confident that GCS should end up with a late future first. Brisbane just need to upgrade their future 3rd (into a second) and a 4th (they have two, into a third) and they can offload two second rounders and anything else to get that first off GCS. Is Mathieson alone worth a those modest future upgrades, or can they get other fringe players to make up the upgrades?
Mathieson will be 26 next year (surprisingly) and has never been a best 22 player in his career. I don't think he has any draft currency.
Starcevich is one player they have that has decent currency, and they want to pump games into Wilmot so may be open to letting him go.

[bulldogtragic]

Mathieson will be 26 next year (surprisingly) and has never been a best 22 player in his career. I don't think he has any draft currency.
Starcevich is one player they have that has decent currency, and they want to pump games into Wilmot so may be open to letting him go.

As soon as GCS get that late future second, I think it’s incumbent on BL to get it with those upgrades by moving players they will let go, as it seems they don’t want to lose better ones. It’s not a huge cost to them to get that second Future First.

Before trade week, if they were told Hopper goes for 12 & 19 this year, but we can get Dunkley for two future late firsts they’d have been very happy.

[Jeanette54]

My best results, admittedly wildly optimistic.

1. Dunkley stays
2. Jones signs (tick)
3. Lobb signs
4. Hunter stays.
5. Mitch Wallis gets a development role as Footscray Captain.
6. We get potential young ruckman and small forward in draft.

[Bullies]

My best results, admittedly wildly optimistic.

1. Dunkley stays
2. Jones signs (tick)
3. Lobb signs
4. Hunter stays.
5. Mitch Wallis gets a development role as Footscray Captain.
6. We get potential young ruckman and small forward in draft. There is no way Dunks stays even if the trade doesn't go through. Need to think about the players who maybe happy to see the back of him.

[bornadog]

There is no way Dunks stays even if the trade doesn't go through. Need to think about the players who maybe happy to see the back of him.

His Manager said he doesn't want to be at the club

[Grantysghost]

His Manager said he doesn't want to be at the club

The feeling is mutual as far as I'm concerned.

Buh bye Josh.

[GVGjr]

His Manager said he doesn't want to be at the club

His manager talks crap.

[DOG GOD]

Best and worst case scenario. Jones in

[G-Mo77]

I just want us to finalise a deal. Not pay overs for Lobb and get rid of Dunkley. Yes, 21, F1 and what ever else will do. Just get it done and move on.

Ins: Lobb, Jones, Random Numbers
Outs: Dunkley, Random Numbers

I honestly hought we'd do better than that.

[whythelongface]

I just want us to finalise a deal. Not pay overs for Lobb and get rid of Dunkley. Yes, 21, F1 and what ever else will do. Just get it done and move on.

Ins: Lobb, Jones, Random Numbers
Outs: Dunkley, Random Numbers

I honestly hought we'd do better than that.

Yep. It is all pretty underwhelming.

[Dancin' Douggy]

It's pathetic, that's what it is............

[Rocket Science]

Well at least our reigning best & fairest champion is sweating bullets.

Then again, who'd be be remotely surprised if a Dunkley deal's been all but consummated but Pickering's finagled it to drop within minutes of the deadline so #BrandDunks can headline the last day of trade and milk the perceived publicity.

No doubt the stylists have been mobilised.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Well at least our reigning best & fairest champion is sweating bullets.

Then again, who'd be be remotely surprised if a Dunkley deal's been all but consummated but Pickering's finagled it to drop within minutes of the deadline so #BrandDunks can headline the last day of trade and milk the perceived publicity.

No doubt the stylists have been mobilised.

I'm not sure I'll despise anyone more than Dunkley going forward.

I'm sure he's quietly loving all the fuss.

[Bulldog4life]

I'm not sure I'll despise anyone more than Dunkley going forward.

I'm sure he's quietly loving all the fuss.

Agree. If had got to Essendon 2 years ago on a 4 or 5 year contract do you think he would still want to leave. I don't think so. Just wants to be away from our club.

[bornadog]

Well at least our reigning best & fairest champion is sweating bullets.

Then again, who'd be be remotely surprised if a Dunkley deal's been all but consummated but Pickering's finagled it to drop within minutes of the deadline so #BrandDunks can headline the last day of trade and milk the perceived publicity.

No doubt the stylists have been mobilised.

Tomorrow there are no trades posted till after 3 to make things more dramatic

[bulldogsthru&thru]

It's a bad look and embarrassment for the AFL when we're going to lose our best and fairest and get far less than the reigning premiers got for absolutely nothing. It's a bit of a joke.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Tomorrow there are no trades posted till after 3 to make things more dramatic

What a joke.

The AFL is a pit of a product.

[josie]

What time does this trade period finish tomorrow?

Looking forward to the Brisbane & Pickering melts and Roos glee.

I do hope we can pick up Lobb for a reasonable trade to both teams though. I do think he will help our structure a lot.

[Grantysghost]

What’s the bet Dunkley gets to the Bombers.

[AshMac]

Tomorrow there are no trades posted till after 3 to make things more dramatic

They do this every year. A small part of me wonders if they only let the jackson trade go public because parts of it were needed for other conversations.

In honesty - we have no idea where brisbane and dogs stand outside of a bunch of curated content designed to make us ri click toward advertising

[josie]

What’s the bet Dunkley gets to the Bombers.

Do you think Roos might pass? WC probably will. Doubt Dunkley makes much difference to Bombers winning a final aspirations. Bombers faithful would be insufferable though. So many interesting scenarios to play out. It would be interesting to see Dunks in Port colours next year. A bit further from Brisbane.

[Grantysghost]

Do you think Roos might pass? WC probably will. Doubt Dunkley makes much difference to Bombers winning a final aspirations. Bombers faithful would be insufferable though. So many interesting scenarios to play out. It would be interesting to see Dunks in Port colours next year. A bit further from Brisbane.
The Dons have pick 4. Dunkley just organises a stupid front ended contract with the Dons and he’s there. The AFL will allow it in spite of us not letting him go to their QLD buddies.

[hujsh]

Bombers actually said they don't want him

I think the bigger question is who wants to spend a top 10 pick on him in the national draft? Hawks? Geelong? St.Kilda? Carlton?

[lemmon]

Would Dunkley go through the national draft first? I seem to remember that was the case with Luke Ball.

[soupman]

Would Dunkley go through the national draft first? I seem to remember that was the case with Luke Ball.

Even if he did wouldn't work well with Brisbane, who have no real picks (since their first two are both father son) till probably the 70s so would miss out.

[hujsh]

Even if he did wouldn't work well with Brisbane, who have no real picks (since their first two are both father son) till probably the 70s so would miss out.

Brissy fans think they can trade back in after the F/S to get him. I wonder where he'd go? Who'd back themselves in to get him onboard? Geelong? Hawks? St.Kilda? Carlton? One of the Sydney teams?

[Grantysghost]

Brissy fans think they can trade back in after the F/S to get him. I wonder where he'd go? Who'd back themselves in to get him onboard? Geelong? Hawks? St.Kilda? Carlton? One of the Sydney teams?
Essendon

[hujsh]

Bombers actually said they don't want him

I think the bigger question is who wants to spend a top 10 pick on him in the national draft? Hawks? Geelong? St.Kilda? Carlton?


Essendon
Am I Axe now?

[Grantysghost]

Am I Axe now?
Haha.

The dons didn’t want to trade for him, they’ll happily get him for free.

[hujsh]

Haha.

The dons didn’t want to trade for him, they’ll happily get him for free.

They said they don't want to spend the draft assets to bring in someone for a year who will be a distraction when they're bringing in a coach in his first year (at he club)

[bulldogtragic]

I finally got round to watching Peaky Blinders last month. A key lesson I took is sometimes your opponent losing, even if you don’t win outright, is sometimes a good enough result.

[Grantysghost]

They said they don't want to spend the draft assets to bring in someone for a year who will be a distraction when they're bringing in a coach in his first year (at he club)

Oh right thanks.

Re Draft Assets are they assuming he's going in the national draft when they say that?

My comment was based on the PSD.

[hujsh]

Oh right thanks.

Re Draft Assets are they assuming he's going in the national draft when they say that?

My comment was based on the PSD.

I think either way TBH

[azabob]

Am I Axe now?

Not sure, I can’t see your face.

[azabob]

What time does this trade period finish tomorrow?

Looking forward to the Brisbane & Pickering melts and Roos glee.

I do hope we can pick up Lobb for a reasonable trade to both teams though. I do think he will help our structure a lot.

3pm to 7.30pm.