The Run Home - explain how we miss finals

[hujsh]

Seeing a few posts mentioning we'll miss the 8 so I thought to myself, 'let's have a look at what games we have left and test that a bit'

The run home is
North (Marvel)
Freo (Marvel)
Collingwood (Marvel)
Sydney (SCG)
Essendon (Marvel)
Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)
Geelong (Sedat Park)

With a 7-6 record you'd assume 5-6 wins from these last 10 gets us in the 8 (12 wins might mean you miss on percentage if you're unlucky like Carlton lol)

What're you feeling? Which 5-6 teams beat us? We won't win at Sedat Park. Collingwood is a big ask. Who scares you in the remainder of the pack? Is it Essendon? Is the SCG too far for us to travel? Will the non-canon nature of UTAS sink us once again?

[hujsh]

FWIW I feel pretty good about North, Freo here, the Giants at Mars, Richmond, Hawks and West Coast with Sydney and Essendon more of a toss up. Not bothering with Collingwood and Geelong.

[DOG GOD]

Seeing a few posts mentioning we'll miss the 8 so I thought to myself, 'let's have a look at what games we have left and test that a bit'

The run home is
North (Marvel)
Freo (Marvel)
Collingwood (Marvel)
Sydney (SCG)
Essendon (Marvel)
Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)
Geelong (Sedat Park)

With a 7-6 record you'd assume 5-6 wins from these last 10 gets us in the 8 (12 wins might mean you miss on percentage if you're unlucky like Carlton lol)

What're you feeling? Which 5-6 teams beat us? We won't win at Sedat Park. Collingwood is a big ask. Who scares you in the remainder of the pack? Is it Essendon? Is the SCG too far for us to travel? Will the non-canon nature of UTAS sink us once again?

Looking at that it would not surprise me to see us win only North and WC.

North (Marvel) ?should? be a win
Freo (Marvel) 50/50
Collingwood (Marvel) LOSS
Sydney (SCG) LOSS
Essendon (Marvel) 50/50 if we can keep Wright quiet
Giants (Mars) 50/50
Richmond (Marvel) will Lynch be back ??
Hawks (Tas) our record is horrendous 50/50
WCE (Marvel) if we don?t win this?.well?.
Geelong (Sedat Park) no way in hell, especially if they are playing for top 4.

So, I only see Coll, Syd and Geel as definite losses.
Freo, Ess, Giants, Rich, Hawks all 50/50 so say we win 3 of them
North and WC as wins.

That?s 5 more wins.
We will probably finish 9th on percentage (where I predicted haha)

[Bulldog Joe]

Seeing a few posts mentioning we'll miss the 8 so I thought to myself, 'let's have a look at what games we have left and test that a bit'

The run home is
North (Marvel) Win
Freo (Marvel)
Collingwood (Marvel)
Sydney (SCG) Win
Essendon (Marvel)
Giants (Mars) Win
Richmond (Marvel) Win
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel) Win
Geelong (Sedat Park)

With a 7-6 record you'd assume 5-6 wins from these last 10 gets us in the 8 (12 wins might mean you miss on percentage if you're unlucky like Carlton lol)

What're you feeling? Which 5-6 teams beat us? We won't win at Sedat Park. Collingwood is a big ask. Who scares you in the remainder of the pack? Is it Essendon? Is the SCG too far for us to travel? Will the non-canon nature of UTAS sink us once again?

Couple of issues.
This year 23 rounds means 12 games will not be enough and even 13 with a poor percentage could miss.

That means we need a minimum of 6 wins and I have marked the 5 I feel most confident about.

We would then be strong chances against Freo, who have improved since our first meeting and did beat us at Marvel last year.

I remember 2021 when we were really good that we still managed to lose to both Essendon and Hawthorn.

While nobody will tip us to beat Collingwood we certainly can do so.

Might need to beat Geelong at Sedat Park to cement a spot.

[bornadog]

FWIW I feel pretty good about North, Freo here, the Giants at Mars, Richmond, Hawks and West Coast with Sydney and Essendon more of a toss up. Not bothering with Collingwood and Geelong.

Hardest is Collingwood and Geelong

[hujsh]

Couple of issues.
This year 23 rounds means 12 games will not be enough and even 13 with a poor percentage could miss.

That means we need a minimum of 6 wins and I have marked the 5 I feel most confident about.

We would then be strong chances against Freo, who have improved since our first meeting and did beat us at Marvel last year.

I remember 2021 when we were really good that we still managed to lose to both Essendon and Hawthorn.

While nobody will tip us to beat Collingwood we certainly can do so.

Might need to beat Geelong at Sedat Park to cement a spot.

Good point. I looked at previous years and forget the totally fair neutral game we played against Port at their home ground

[Grantysghost]

North (Marvel) W
Freo (Marvel) W
Collingwood (Marvel) L
Sydney (SCG) W
Essendon (Marvel) W
Giants (Mars) W
Richmond (Marvel) W
Hawks (Tas) W
WCE (Marvel) W
Geelong (Sedat Park) L

[Bulldog Joe]

North (Marvel) W
Freo (Marvel) W
Collingwood (Marvel) L
Sydney (SCG) W
Essendon (Marvel) W
Giants (Mars) W
Richmond (Marvel) W
Hawks (Tas) W
WCE (Marvel) W
Geelong (Sedat Park) L

I pretty much agree that is what we should do.

Win them all would be better and then 3 finals.

[Scraggers]

Seeing a few posts mentioning we'll miss the 8 so I thought to myself, 'let's have a look at what games we have left and test that a bit'

The run home is
North (Marvel)
Freo (Marvel)
Collingwood (Marvel)
Sydney (SCG)
Essendon (Marvel)
Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)
Geelong (Sedat Park)

With a 7-6 record you'd assume 5-6 wins from these last 10 gets us in the 8 (12 wins might mean you miss on percentage if you're unlucky like Carlton lol)

What're you feeling? Which 5-6 teams beat us? We won't win at Sedat Park. Collingwood is a big ask. Who scares you in the remainder of the pack? Is it Essendon? Is the SCG too far for us to travel? Will the non-canon nature of UTAS sink us once again?

I did this last night as well, using the AFL ladder predictor. Now I know I'm Captain Positive and the glass is always half full, but I see us losing two, with two 50/50 so probably 7 more wins. But its not only the wins for us, its the losses for other teams around us. They all have a pretty tough run home compared to ours. Geelong for example play 7 of 9 (mmmm ... 7 of 9) (sorry ... Star Trek joke), teams above them.

Anyway, bottom line, I have us finishing 5th.

[MrMahatma]

Could lose this weekend. Not completely out of the question.

[Scraggers]

Could lose this weekend. Not completely out of the question.

You don't get a Captain Positive T-shirt.

[G-Mo77]

Some.of you guys severely overrating us.


North (Marvel) Win
Freo (Marvel) Loss
Collingwood (Marvel) Loss
Sydney (SCG) Loss
Essendon (Marvel) Loss
Giants (Mars) Win
Richmond (Marvel) Loss
Hawks (Tas) Win
WCE (Marvel) Win
Geelong (Sedat Park) Loss

I'm 50/50 on that Freo one but think they'll get us over here. Richmond at Marvel is getable.

[bornadog]

I did this last night as well, using the AFL ladder predictor. Now I know I'm Captain Positive and the glass is always half full, but I see us losing two, with two 50/50 so probably 7 more wins. But its not only the wins for us, its the losses for other teams around us. They all have a pretty tough run home compared to ours. Geelong for example play 7 of 9 (mmmm ... 7 of 9) (sorry ... Star Trek joke), teams above them.

Anyway, bottom line, I have us finishing 5th.

Essendon have the best run home

[DOG GOD]

Some.of you guys severely overrating us.


North (Marvel) Win
Freo (Marvel) Loss
Collingwood (Marvel) Loss
Sydney (SCG) Loss
Essendon (Marvel) Loss
Giants (Mars) Win
Richmond (Marvel) Loss
Hawks (Tas) Win
WCE (Marvel) Win
Geelong (Sedat Park) Loss

I'm 50/50 on that Freo one but think they'll get us over here. Richmond at Marvel is getable.

I’m not haha

[Rocket Science]

Felt finals were a fairly ambitious task ahead of the season and can't say there's been much cause to reconsider, coaching hijinks aside while the application's been generally better the list - even when healthy - has too many fatal flaws and the win streak was fools gold, our only 'serious' scalp the dub over Brisbane under threat of the joint being burned down had we dropped that one.

North WIN
Freo WIN
Collingwood LOSS
Sydney LOSS
Essendon LOSS
Giants *shrug*
Richmond LOSS
Hawks *shrug*
WCE WIN
Geelong BIG BIG LOSS and probably the percentage killer that sees us miss out.

All said and done we're a 9th to 12th calibre outfit and that's where we'll land unless Carlton or some other chump feels like being charitable again.

[MrMahatma]

You don't get a Captain Positive T-shirt.

Just answering the question.

I don’t reckon any match is a given, particularly if our form is inconsistent, which it is.

[SonofScray]

J think we?ll finish 6th.

[1eyedog]

I'm thinking three more wins North, Giants and West Coast to finish on 10 wins.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Win, lose or draw, I'm just loving seeing Sedat Park.

[Scorlibo]

We'd be favourites in 8 of those games based on current standings. But on the balance of probabilities we might win 5-7. Five wins and we leave a top eight finish up to chance. Seven wins should be enough to secure a home final, which could prove consequential if Geelong, Adelaide and Fremantle are in the mix. Home final at Marvel against Adelaide or Fremantle would be ideal.

[AshMac]

North (Marvel) W
Freo (Marvel) W
Collingwood (Marvel) L
Sydney (SCG) W
Essendon (Marvel) W
Giants (Mars) W
Richmond (Marvel) W
Hawks (Tas) W
WCE (Marvel) W
Geelong (Sedat Park) L

This is my prediction if we?re in form back half of the year. I just can?t figure us out at the moment and honestly am pretty flat on them confidence wise at the moment.

Feels like the whole competition (except west coast) has improved and we?ve remained flat

[jazzadogs]

This is my prediction if we?re in form back half of the year. I just can?t figure us out at the moment and honestly am pretty flat on them confidence wise at the moment.

Feels like the whole competition (except west coast) has improved and we?ve remained flat

Carlton, Freo, Geelong, Swans, Tigers have certainly not improved.

Brisbane and Melbourne are the same as last year.

Port, Saints, Bombers, Crows, Gold Coast have improved.

[angelopetraglia]

I did a very optimistic Bulldogs ladder predictor. (Winning every game except Pies and Cats).

I had the Dogs finishing on 15 wins and 8 losses. That has us finishing 5th (one game behind the Lions). Playing the Bombers in the first week of the finals.

My pure gut instinct to each game. This is how I had the ladder.

1. Pies
2. Port
3. Melb
4. Lions
5. Dogs
6. Saints
7. Crows
8. Bombers

9. Tigers
10. Cats
11. Dockers

[jazzadogs]

Playing the bombers in a final at the G is a nightmare scenario. I think I would prioritise my mental health and not go to the game.

[MrMahatma]

Playing the bombers in a final at the G is a nightmare scenario. I think I would prioritise my mental health and not go to the game.

Think of the upside, not the downside. Beating them would be amazing!

[Bulldog Joe]

Think of the upside, not the downside. Beating them would be amazing!

Getting to maintain the Essendon finals drought would be worth some anxiety.

It would actually be a good position to challenge from because the top 4 loser would be vulnerable if we get our act together.

My preference would still be top 4.

If we could win our next 12 we would have the flag.
11 of 12 means we at least make the last game.

[bornadog]

Seeing a few posts mentioning we'll miss the 8 so I thought to myself, 'let's have a look at what games we have left and test that a bit'

The run home is
North (Marvel) done
Freo (Marvel) done
Collingwood (Marvel)
Sydney (SCG)
Essendon (Marvel)
Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)
Geelong (Sedat Park)

With a 7-6 record you'd assume 5-6 wins from these last 10 gets us in the 8 (12 wins might mean you miss on percentage if you're unlucky like Carlton lol)

What're you feeling? Which 5-6 teams beat us? We won't win at Sedat Park. Collingwood is a big ask. Who scares you in the remainder of the pack? Is it Essendon? Is the SCG too far for us to travel? Will the non-canon nature of UTAS sink us once again?

Beat Pies and we are well on the way

[hujsh]

A couple of very tough games coming up. The next 5 though are potentially all wins. I'd take 5-3 from the next 8 TBH.

[bulldogtragic]

A couple of very tough games coming up. The next 5 though are potentially all wins. I'd take 5-3 from the next 8 TBH.

Par needs to be 5-3 to not just make up the numbers. A win at Sedat Park (however unrealistic) could be a huge momentum and confidence builder.

[bornadog]

Par needs to be 5-3 to not just make up the numbers. A win at Sedat Park (however unrealistic) could be a huge momentum and confidence builder.

Never unrealistic - difficult -YES

[bulldogtragic]

Never unrealistic - difficult -YES

I don’t mind positive thinking, but it sure is absolutely unrealistic.

[GVGjr]

Par needs to be 5-3 to not just make up the numbers. A win at Sedat Park (however unrealistic) could be a huge momentum and confidence builder.

Wouldn't that get the blood pumping before finals. :)

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I think it was mentioned last time but theres an extra game this year so 13 wins doesn't guarantee top 8.

I still think Geelong will make it so that means one of us, saints, crows or Bombers will miss. Our game against essendon could be an 8pter

[azabob]

I reckon we beat Geelong at Sedat park.

[bornadog]

I don’t mind positive thinking, but it sure is absolutely unrealistic.

I don't think it is unrealistic at all

[EasternWest]

I reckon we beat Geelong at Sedat park.

Concussion protocols please. Aza has bumped his head.

[jeemak]

Concussion protocols please. Aza has bumped his head.

I don't see a difference in cognitive function.

[jazzadogs]

I reckon we beat Geelong at Sedat park.

Might depend where their season is at. I want them locked in to finals before that game so there is no potential for it to be a Hawkins farewell party.

[EasternWest]

I don't see a difference in cognitive function.

Actually hard to argue

[azabob]

Concussion protocols please. Aza has bumped his head.

I've been cleared to continue posting.

In all seriousness I really liked what I saw from the boys on Saturday afternoon. It was a very good win.

[Sedat]

I reckon we beat Geelong at Sedat park.
Lol. I admire your optimism azabob.

We have as much chance of beating them on their own shit-heap as I have of claiming a tax deduction for the $300m that has already been ploughed into that pork-barrel marginal electorate pissant toy ground with no wings.

[EasternWest]

Lol. I admire your optimism azabob.

We have as much chance of beating them on their own shit-heap as I have of claiming a tax deduction for the $300m that has already been ploughed into that pork-barrel marginal electorate pissant toy ground with no wings.

Chortle

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Some.of you guys severely overrating us.


North (Marvel) Win
Freo (Marvel) Loss
Collingwood (Marvel) Loss
Sydney (SCG) Loss
Essendon (Marvel) Loss
Giants (Mars) Win
Richmond (Marvel) Loss
Hawks (Tas) Win
WCE (Marvel) Win
Geelong (Sedat Park) Loss

I'm 50/50 on that Freo one but think they'll get us over here. Richmond at Marvel is getable.

Some of you guys are hard core pessimists dragging us down!!!

[Grantysghost]

Lol. I admire your optimism azabob.

We have as much chance of beating them on their own shit-heap as I have of claiming a tax deduction for the $300m that has already been ploughed into that pork-barrel marginal electorate pissant toy ground with no wings.

It's definitely got a left wing.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

If we can win 2 of our next 3 we'll be giving ourselves a good shot at making the 8. I think the next 3 are most critical. Especially the essendon game.

[Bulldog Joe]

If we can win 2 of our next 3 we'll be giving ourselves a good shot at making the 8. I think the next 3 are most critical. Especially the essendon game.

Win 2 of our next 3 and we more than a shot at the 8, we are a genuine top 4 contender.
I agree that the Essendon game is critical to our chances.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Win 2 of our next 3 and we more than a shot at the 8, we are a genuine top 4 contender.
I agree that the Essendon game is critical to our chances.

If we're only winning 1 of the next 3 then I think the season will get away from us. Unless that 1 win is against essendon. I'd like to control our position and not rely on other games going our way.

[1eyedog]

Beat Pies and we are well on the way

Melbourne shitting the bed at Sedat Park and in Alice are great results. Also, next week it's the Demons and the Saints so whatever happens against the Pies we won't be out of touch with the top 4.

[MrMahatma]

Melbourne shitting the bed at Sedat Park and in Alice are great results. Also, next week it's the Demons and the Saints so whatever happens against the Pies we won't be out of touch with the top 4.

Prob a narrow Saints win would be preferable given their % is within reach of ours. All that following our mighty 23 point win over the Pies!

[bornadog]

Melbourne shitting the bed at Sedat Park and in Alice are great results. Also, next week it's the Demons and the Saints so whatever happens against the Pies we won't be out of touch with the top 4.

Next 3 games are interesting:

Dogs:

Pies, Sydney (SCG) and Bombers

Dees:

Saints, (Marvel), Lions and Crows at MCG

[1eyedog]

Next 3 games are interesting:

Dogs:

Pies, Sydney (SCG) and Bombers

Dees:

Saints, (Marvel), Lions and Crows at MCG

Yes season defining really. Let's hope we don't blow this chance. Wouldn't mind it if Richards was available.

Maynard looked very sore yesterday but he's a tough bugger so I expect he'll play.

[Bulldog Joe]

Prob a narrow Saints win would be preferable given their % is within reach of ours. All that following our mighty 23 point win over the Pies!

I don't wish any bias.
I will settle for a draw

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Next 3 games are interesting:

Dogs:

Pies, Sydney (SCG) and Bombers

Dees:

Saints, (Marvel), Lions and Crows at MCG

We've also got crows v Bombers this week with top 8 implications.

[Bulldog Joe]

Every week the contenders play a game with implications for their finishing position.
Like St Kilda actually had to beat West Coast but they dampened their chances by not getting the percentage boost.

We simply need to do what is needed and that is win.
Do that in 6 of our remaining and we are probably top 4.

[bornadog]

We've also got crows v Bombers this week with top 8 implications.

I was looking at top 4 implications :o

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Every week the contenders play a game with implications for their finishing position.
Like St Kilda actually had to beat West Coast but they dampened their chances by not getting the percentage boost.

We simply need to do what is needed and that is win.
Do that in 6 of our remaining and we are probably top 4.

Can we close this thread then ;)

I'd like to see us beat some respected teams in the run home as well as beat those around us on the ladder. Knocking off freo was good. Beating collingwood would be superb.

We just haven't done it much lately when it matters.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I was looking at top 4 implications :o

The last time I thought about top 4 we went on a 3 game losing streak :(

[Boots]

Given we lost against Port twice, if we can't beat Pies I think it tells us where we are, and it's not really in contention this year.

If we beat the Pies I will absolutely, positively, 100% believe.

[1eyedog]

Given we lost against Port twice, if we can't beat Pies I think it tells us where we are, and it's not really in contention this year.

If we beat the Pies I will absolutely, positively, 100% believe.

I think when it comes to finals you are always a show and with Jones, JJ and Richards back in the team we are definately capable of winning a final. From there, who knows but you've got to be there to find out.

[bulldogtragic]

As a reference point, live ladders reckons we need four wins to sneak into the top 8 at seasons end, we will be 7th at the end of the round:

Sydney (SCG)
Essendon (Marvel)
Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)
Geelong (Sedat Park)

We should sneak in. But Sydney at home isn?t a gimme, depends which Essendon, Giants (Dee slayers) & Tigers shows up, Hawks beat Lions, WCE should be a win and Geelong at Sedat Park a loss.

Not as easy as it seemed 20 minutes into the first quarter vs GCS.

[azabob]

As a reference point, live ladders reckons we need four wins to sneak into the top 8 at seasons end, we will be 7th at the end of the round:

Sydney (SCG)
Essendon (Marvel)
Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)
Geelong (Sedat Park)

We should sneak in. But Sydney at home isn?t a gimme, depends which Essendon, Giants (Dee slayers) & Tigers shows up, Hawks beat Lions, WCE should be a win and Geelong at Sedat Park a loss.

Not as easy as it seemed 20 minutes into the first quarter vs GCS.

Seven from seven.

Time to be optimistic.

[bulldogtragic]

Seven from seven.

Time to be optimistic.

I don’t mind optimism. But would I bet my hard earned on 7/7. Not a chance.

[Bulldog Joe]

Well it is in our own hands still.
Win 7 we make top 4 and they are all absolutely winnable.
Even at that taxpayer funded toy stadium with no wings AKA Sedat Park

[jazzadogs]

I just can't handle going with Sedat Park over Sedat Stadium. No way that's getting through a focus group - the alliteration is beautiful!

[bulldogtragic]

Well. Essentially, if we keep playing like this. We miss finals.

[azabob]

Well. Essentially, if we keep playing like this. We miss finals.

You’ve gone early! I love it! Now do 2023 list management

[bulldogtragic]

Season over?

[Rocket Science]

Season over?

I mean we've now dropped 5 of our last 7 and are presently 1-and-6 against teams currently in the eight thanks solely to that round 3 win over Brisbane so reckon we can consider our September calendars 'free'.

Then again we might fall in arse-first again then get tossed out in week one which will proudly add to our catalog of successful seasons in which we 'made finals'.

[MrMahatma]

We all have RWB coloured glasses.

We overrate this team. I certainly do. We’re not contenders unfortunately. I don’t believe it’s a lack of talent. Missing Jones is hurting but apart from that, no list is perfect and ours is pretty good.

[Eastdog]

GWS, Hawks and Eagles we should win so that gets us 12 wins and another win or 2 out of Bombers, Tigers and Cats 13-14 wins which will get us in the top 8 but top 4 nearly gone considering our poor percentage and really relying on others to lose around us.

[bornadog]

We all have RWB coloured glasses.

We overrate this team. I certainly do. We’re not contenders unfortunately. I don’t believe it’s a lack of talent. Missing Jones is hurting but apart from that, no list is perfect and ours is pretty good.

There you go over rating the list:D

I think there are alot of players that just don't contribute and it is left to too few

[Danny the snakeman]

Whoever started this thread must not have followed the dogs for very long otherwise they would have known the answer.

[angelopetraglia]

We are in serious trouble now.

We have lost five of our last seven.

Loss. Suns by 7.
Loss. Cats by 22.
Loss. Port by 22.
Win. North by 21.
Win. Freo by 29.
Loss. Pies by 12.
Loss. Swans by 2.

Biggest defeat 22 points. We were in every game. Average losing margin of the five games is 13 points.

[SonofScray]

Bevo and the boys saw this thread and thought “why explain, when we can show you?”

Kinaesthetic learners.

[GVGjr]

We all have RWB coloured glasses.

We overrate this team. I certainly do. We’re not contenders unfortunately. I don’t believe it’s a lack of talent. Missing Jones is hurting but apart from that, no list is perfect and ours is pretty good.

We are fairly passive with our list changes each year so clearly the coaches rate the list and especially given the way we recruited a experienced players we were clearing topping up or loading up for a big year. Now this recruitment process has been somewhat complicated by the additions of Marra and Darcy in the last few years eating into some picks but we need to be prepared to cut into the list a bit deeper going forward.

[GVGjr]

I don't want to hear the normal "well mathematically we can still make top 5" type comments but given the way we recruited at the end of last season and the way we are playing at the moment can we really accept limping into the 8 again or missing it this year?

I get winning a final would probably gloss over some of form slumps we have endured so far and it's not like we were really poor against the Swans but we have to be honest and say that for whatever reason we aren't really achieving what we are capable of at the moment.

[angelopetraglia]

I don't want to hear the normal "well mathematically we can still make top 5" type comments but given the way we recruited at the end of last season and the way we are playing at the moment can we really accept limping into the 8 again or missing it this year?

I get winning a final would probably gloss over some of form slumps we have endured so far and it's not like we were really poor against the Swans but we have to be honest and say that for whatever reason we aren't really achieving what we are capable of at the moment.

Losing those close games is costing us. Besides the first two weeks we have not been blown out of the water. We have been super competitive in every single game after round #2. However that start did really put our season on the back foot. There should be a lot of questions about that. Why did we only play one practice match against a second rate team?

In our last seven games those five losses are an average of 13 points. A few big moments in a lot of games have cost us this year.

Demons. Disaster.
Saints. Disaster.
Lions. Best win of the year.
Tigers. Fell across the line.
Port. We lost by 14. We should have won that game. We had them.
Freo. Smashed them.
Hawks. Just did enough to win.
GWS. Let them back late. But controlled the game.
Blues. Won by 20. Great finish to the game.
Crows. Smashed them.
Suns. Jumped them. Let them back in. Should have won late.
Cats. They own us. Had control early. Blew it.
Port. Story of the season. Just allowed to many goals against the flow of the game. Bruce had a 'mare early.
North. Did what we needed to win. Wasn't pretty.
Freo. Did enough to get the job done.
Pies. Went toe to toe with the best team in the land. Had our chances.
Swans. Lose a 50/50 game where we had a lot of chances.

[jeemak]

We are fairly passive with our list changes each year so clearly the coaches rate the list and especially given the way we recruited a experienced players we were clearing topping up or loading up for a big year. Now this recruitment process has been somewhat complicated by the additions of Marra and Darcy in the last few years eating into some picks but we need to be prepared to cut into the list a bit deeper going forward.

Possibly for the coaches it's more a case of not rating who we don't have so they stick with what we do.

How much would anyone really turn over the list after making a grand final? We brought in Jones, Baker and Lobb after not performing the year after, and having those guys not contributing right now isn't helping.

Unless everyone's OK with a slide down the ladder then I expect we'll incrementally change the profile again this year. You can't build depth by getting rid of a whole bunch of players who can play a role at the level if needed.

At some point the recruiting team also needs to be held to account for the profile of the list and the quality of its depth. They really need to nail some targets this year.

[bulldogtragic]

Possibly for the coaches it's more a case of not rating who we don't have so they stick with what we do.

How much would anyone really turn over the list after making a grand final? We brought in Jones, Baker and Lobb after not performing the year after, and having those guys not contributing right now isn't helping.

Unless everyone's OK with a slide down the ladder then I expect we'll incrementally change the profile again this year. You can't build depth by getting rid of a whole bunch of players who can play a role at the level if needed.

At some point the recruiting team also needs to be held to account for the profile of the list and the quality of its depth. They really need to nail some targets this year.

Leaving aside the strategic reasons with Croft and rules that has the optimal number around 8. Who are the roles players being cut that will hurt us:

McNeil (he is not good)
Hannan (one good game in many years)
TOB (body letting him down)
Bruce (seems cooked with Keath & Duryea)
Crozier (see TOB)
Roarke (see above)
Bedendo (see above and has played two games)
McComb (insert opinion here)

Khamis & Sweet should leave for opportunities.


I’d respectfully suggest these uncontracted players haven’t played a role, their role or the role assigned anywhere well enough to AFEL standard. Whether it’s injury or talent, we won’t get much if anything from them next year (getting not much currently). I fail to see how not acknowledging that we need to split is helped by not splitting.

I’d rather see role players getting games like West, Garcia, Cleary, Arty, Gags, Clarke and younger talks like Darcy, Buss & JOD. I’d like to know if these kids can actually play and not if TOB can play a block of games uninjured or if Hannan can stink it up again or McNeil do nothing again. Look we’ve got VDM for a role for another two years too. And so on. It’s time.

The need to have a lot of list spots open to get Croft cheap is the perfect excuse to cut deep and blame the draft laws. So it needs to happen because it should and for Croft.

(If the choice is a short term fall down the ladder or purgatory in no man’s land from 7-10. I’ll take the hit to build a foundation for success. This foundation has psychological trauma from the 2021 GF that is a cancer. Build for succcess and don’t wall paper over our huge cracks us my feeling. I get I’m in the minority and the club clearly thinks it’s in the window.)

[azabob]

At some point the recruiting team also needs to be held to account for the profile of the list and the quality of its depth. They really need to nail some targets this year.

This. I can't believe ego's got in the way of keeping one of the best spotters of talent our club has ever had.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

This. I can't believe ego's got in the way of keeping one of the best spotters of talent our club has ever had.

One man rules the roost.

[MrMahatma]

Losing those close games is costing us. Besides the first two weeks we have not been blown out of the water. We have been super competitive in every single game after round #2. However that start did really put our season on the back foot. There should be a lot of questions about that. Why did we only play one practice match against a second rate team?

In our last seven games those five losses are an average of 13 points. A few big moments in a lot of games have cost us this year.

Demons. Disaster.
Saints. Disaster.
Lions. Best win of the year.
Tigers. Fell across the line.
Port. We lost by 14. We should have won that game. We had them.
Freo. Smashed them.
Hawks. Just did enough to win.
GWS. Let them back late. But controlled the game.
Blues. Won by 20. Great finish to the game.
Crows. Smashed them.
Suns. Jumped them. Let them back in. Should have won late.
Cats. They own us. Had control early. Blew it.
Port. Story of the season. Just allowed to many goals against the flow of the game. Bruce had a 'mare early.
North. Did what we needed to win. Wasn't pretty.
Freo. Did enough to get the job done.
Pies. Went toe to toe with the best team in the land. Had our chances.
Swans. Lose a 50/50 game where we had a lot of chances.

Very balanced, perhaps optimistic post but highlights that we're close... and also highlights we can't seem to close the deal at times we should.

I'm not sure what we do from here. Certainly it's feeling like another wasted season of hopes dashed. It's pretty frustrating and sould destroying.

[GVGjr]

One man rules the roost.

Well that's actually fine providing it's also backed by the 'buck stops here'.

[jeemak]

One man rules the roost.

A point people at the club at the time who should have had more common sense couldn't accept.

[angelopetraglia]

Very balanced, perhaps optimistic post but highlights that we're close... and also highlights we can't seem to close the deal at times we should.

I'm not sure what we do from here. Certainly it's feeling like another wasted season of hopes dashed. It's pretty frustrating and sould destroying.

I do think it is half glass full.

But have a look at Collingwood last year. If they didn't start gaining momentum by winning those close games which then snowballed into winning every game no matter how far behind they were, would they be where they are now? I think not.

Winners win. Getting across the line in some of those close games for us against quality teams and on the road could have change so much in regards to belief, momentum and where we are heading. As they say, it is a game of inches.

[The bulldog tragician]

I do think it is half glass full.

But have a look at Collingwood last year. If they didn't start gaining momentum by winning those close games which then snowballed into winning every game no matter how far behind they were, would they be where they are now? I think not.

Winners win. Getting across the line in some of those close games for us against quality teams and on the road could have change so much in regards to belief, momentum and where we are heading. As they say, it is a game of inches.

Viewed in isolation as just one game, you could remain optimistic. You could say the effort was unquestioned, we were unlucky with two men out of the match and a not very suitable sub to replace two talls, that the umpiring was awful, that the shorter break after a gruelling match vs the Pies affected us, that we were just one or two silly errors from winning. But there is a sameness in how we lose that it is now hard to dismiss. If you dominate i50s and contested possessions and still regularly lose, something is wrong. It’s a very good point that winning a majority of those games would fuel belief but that losing them starts to erode it. I’m very nervous about next week. Bont throwing out his mouth guard and Bevo’s very flat press conference makes me wonder how we regroup after yet another one gets away.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

We talk about making top 4 but then give ourselves a pat on the back for a valiant effort against the pies.

I just don't see. We needed to win 2 of 3 against pies, swans and bombers to just about guarantee the 8. We're 0-2.

I'm still sticking with a finish around 10-11. We're bog average.

There's something about this list that has a lot of 'almost' players. Players who look good but really don't offer much. Dale, Williams, Richards, Treloar even English. The media even hypes them. But do they really hurt the opposition?

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Viewed in isolation as just one game, you could remain optimistic. You could say the effort was unquestioned, we were unlucky with two men out of the match and a not very suitable sub to replace two talls, that the umpiring was awful, that the shorter break after a gruelling match vs the Pies affected us, that we were just one or two silly errors from winning. But there is a sameness in how we lose that it is now hard to dismiss. If you dominate i50s and contested possessions and still regularly lose, something is wrong. It’s a very good point that winning a majority of those games would fuel belief but that losing them starts to erode it. I’m very nervous about next week. Bont throwing out his mouth guard and Bevo’s very flat press conference makes me wonder how we regroup after yet another one gets away.

The same effort that sees us go toe to toe with port and Collingwood for 3 quarters is the same that sees us throw away very winnable games against the suns, cats and swans.

This enigma has been around since the 2021 gf. I can't place it. Is it the list? The coaches? The gameplan? Recruiting? Bit of everything? I don't know but it's killing us. Every start to a season we hope we've eliminated IT but we end up talking about the same old thing every July and august. Cut the list deeper. Change the gameplan. Recruit x and y positions. I feel like as a club we're too slow to react. That or we're too stubborn for our own good.

[josie]

Viewed in isolation as just one game, you could remain optimistic. You could say the effort was unquestioned, we were unlucky with two men out of the match and a not very suitable sub to replace two talls, that the umpiring was awful, that the shorter break after a gruelling match vs the Pies affected us, that we were just one or two silly errors from winning. But there is a sameness in how we lose that it is now hard to dismiss. If you dominate i50s and contested possessions and still regularly lose, something is wrong. It’s a very good point that winning a majority of those games would fuel belief but that losing them starts to erode it. I’m very nervous about next week. Bont throwing out his mouth guard and Bevo’s very flat press conference makes me wonder how we regroup after yet another one gets away.

Well said. And that’s why I think it’s time for Bevo to resign. It’s pretty much rinse and repeat each week. Players must be exhausted too, playing a style that doesn’t hold up to pressure. We can play in bursts but not sustain it. Inability to stem opposition when on a roll, not giving younger players a go in middle, puzzling MC selections, the list goes on.

[Topdog]

Well said. And that’s why I think it’s time for Bevo to resign. It’s pretty much rinse and repeat each week. Players must be exhausted too, playing a style that doesn’t hold up to pressure. We can play in bursts but not sustain it. Inability to stem opposition when on a roll, not giving younger players a go in middle, puzzling MC selections, the list goes on.

It feels like more and more are slowly moving to the its time train of thought.
It's galling how frequently we concede 6 goals in 10 minutes (slight exaggeration)

[bulldogsthru&thru]

It feels like more and more are slowly moving to the its time train of thought.
It's galling how frequently we concede 6 goals in 10 minutes (slight exaggeration)

But all sides do it!!! ;)

[1eyedog]

GWS, Hawks and Eagles we should win so that gets us 12 wins and another win or 2 out of Bombers, Tigers and Cats 13-14 wins which will get us in the top 8 but top 4 nearly gone considering our poor percentage and really relying on others to lose around us.

Nice but this thread is about how we miss finals.

GWS have proved they can beat top 4 sides away from home, a win against them at Mars is not locked in. The Hawks are a 4-6 goal better side in Tasmania for some weird reason, they should just relocate there. Essendon move the ball too quickly for us and I just don't think we can beat them, they've gone past us, Geelong at Sedat Park already has an L in the column. What does that leave us? Wins against West Coast and Richmond at Marvel because they'll have nothing to play for.

I reckon we'll win two games from here West Coast and Richmond taking us to 12 wins, not enough. We'll probably beat GWS, maybe, taking us to 13 wins but because of our poor percentage we'll likely finish 9th but maybe even as low as 10th. There's a heap of teams pressing with a far superior percentage than ours.

The commentary last night was rightly all around how devastating it would be for the Bulldogs to miss finals with the talent available and if it's true that Bevo will walk if we miss finals I think the footy dept. feel the same.

[SonofScray]

How early can we drop out of the 8?

Can we fall out by the end of this round pending other results?

We're going to lose to Essendon, I give us less than a 40% chance. That should just about kill off the rest of the season.

My adjusted ladder predictor has us falling from 6th to 9th come end of the season.

[1eyedog]

How early can we drop out of the 8?

Can we fall out by the end of this round pending other results?

We're going to lose to Essendon, I give us less than a 40% chance. That should just about kill off the rest of the season.

My adjusted ladder predictor has us falling from 6th to 9th come end of the season.

If Geelong beats Essendon at Sedat Park and the Crows beat GWS at Adelaide Oval we'll be 9th on Saturday night.

[DOG GOD]

I can see Adel and Carl replacing us and Saints in the 8.

[Danny the snakeman]

Eagles will beat us and Bevo will walk.

[G-Mo77]

Eagles will beat us and Bevo will walk.

We're not that bad. I'll ask him to piss off myself if we lose that game.

[bulldogtragic]

We really need a minimum of four wins to just sneak into finals. Not that I expect us to win a final anyway. But being that we?ve almost never won at Sedat Stadium, for the sake if argument put that as a loss. We then need to win 4 of the next 5 to sneak in. To probably play and lose to Geelong in an EF:

Essendon (Marvel)
Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)

With Jones & JJ still a few weeks away. Darcy & JOD maybe outs with limited options to replace them based on VFL form (will Smith be back soon and back into form?). In my heart of hearts I?m not absolutely sure there?s four wins there they way we keep losing consistently. Maybe three wins. Then miss the 8 on percentage. If we go from 3rd on the live ladder first quarter vs GCS to missing the 8 altogether then I?m not sure how some heads aren?t going to have to roll. After the 2021 Season for Top 4 choke and especially the GF choke, the 2022 EF choke and then this potential 2023 outcome/choke. I?m not sure how we work passed it as a club and playing list to constantly work hard for all these opportunities to blow them all one after the other.

I Hope something happens and it turns around on the spot and we win some finals after making them. But there?s very little evidence to suggest that?s going to happen. But hope we shall.

[bornadog]

We really need a minimum of four wins to just sneak into finals. Not that I expect us to win a final anyway. But being that we?ve almost never won at Sedat Stadium, for the sake if argument put that as a loss. We then need to win 4 of the next 5 to sneak in. To probably play and lose to Geelong in an EF:

Essendon (Marvel)
Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)

With Jones & JJ still a few weeks away. Darcy & JOD maybe outs with limited options to replace them based on VFL form (will Smith be back soon and back into form?). In my heart of hearts I?m not absolutely sure there?s four wins there they way we keep losing consistently. Maybe three wins. Then miss the 8 on percentage. If we go from 3rd on the live ladder first quarter vs GCS to missing the 8 altogether then I?m not sure how some heads aren?t going to have to roll. After the 2021 Season for Top 4 choke and especially the GF choke, the 2022 EF choke and then this potential 2023 outcome/choke. I?m not sure how we work passed it as a club and playing list to constantly work hard for all these opportunities to blow them all one after the other.

I Hope something happens and it turns around on the spot and we win some finals after making them. But there?s very little evidence to suggest that?s going to happen. But hope we shall.

The only evidence is of the top 4, we lost to Pies by 12 points, Port by 14, beat Brisbane, but Melbourne thrashed us. If we can bring just abit more effort and consistency, we have a chance.

[bulldogtragic]

The only evidence is of the top 4, we lost to Pies by 12 points, Port by 14, beat Brisbane, but Melbourne thrashed us. If we can bring just abit more effort and consistency, we have a chance.

Evidence? Essendon is above us ladder, GWS recently beat Melbourne is Mars like conditions and are near us on the ladder. Richmond are much better than their ladder position suggests and best Sydney who we just lost to and generally play pretty well against us. Hawks are a much stronger team in Tassie, who toweled us up in 2021 and who recently beat Brisbane. WCE should be a gimme, should. That is evidence too.

As I say, I live in hope. Not in confidence in this group now.

[Bumper Bulldogs]

If we lose to the injectors we miss the 8. But if we fall into the 8 no one will want to play us as we are so unpredictable that we could beat anyone on our day.

We really miss JJ and Jones but the year isn’t over and I still believe that we will make it and be a serious contender as our best will be on the park and Bevo will be in his element with Tye world against us.

[hujsh]

Evidence? Essendon is above us ladder, GWS recently beat Melbourne is Mars like conditions and are near us on the ladder. Richmond are much better than their ladder position suggests and best Sydney who we just lost to and generally play pretty well against us. Hawks are a much stronger team in Tassie, who toweled us up in 2021 and who recently beat Brisbane. WCE should be a gimme, should. That is evidence too.

As I say, I live in hope. Not in confidence in this group now.

Don't Essendon have the easiest draw this year? Didn't we beat GWS and Richmond at their home grounds? Didn't we beat the Hawks in Tassie last year?

I think we should be expecting wins there. We've lost enough games we should win that anymore would mean we miss finals and Bevo makes way.

I think we'll win 4 but have no idea if we miss finals or not. Might depend on if we beat West Coast by enough.

[bulldogtragic]

Don't Essendon have the easiest draw this year? Didn't we beat GWS and Richmond at their home grounds? Didn't we beat the Hawks in Tassie last year?

I think we should be expecting wins there. We've lost enough games we should win that anymore would mean we miss finals and Bevo makes way.

I think we'll win 4 but have no idea if we miss finals or not. Might depend on if we beat West Coast by enough.

Yep, there’s arguments for and against us winning them. Not only arguments one way about close loses. I felt more confident in wins over GCS, the Geelong VFL side we faced and a lack lustre Sydney. So I hope we win 4+, I really do. But I simply don’t have trust in this group right now to say we win more than three. Which is season over and possibly Shocktober 2 type territory which I don’t want to even think about.

[angelopetraglia]

I have done the ladder predictor with a number of different scenarios.

Four wins will have us play finals. If we lose to either Bombers/Tigers and also Cats in last game but win remaining games we make it.

That is we would need to win.

Eagles at home.
GWS at home.
Hawks in Tassie.
Tigers or Bombers game.

[Grantysghost]

I have done the ladder predictor with a number of different scenarios.

Four wins will have us play finals. If we lose to either Bombers/Tigers and also Cats in last game but win remaining games we make it.

That is we would need to win.

Eagles at home.
GWS at home.
Hawks in Tassie.
Tigers or Bombers game.

Be line ball I reckon.

Giants tough. That's a 50/50.
Bombers I think is an L.
Tigers I think is a W.
Hawks depends on which Hawks turn up. Should be a W.
Do we want to make it with that form line?

Part of me prefers we miss and a review is forced.

[angelopetraglia]

The only chance for top four is to win every game and hope either Melbourne loses two and we make up 8% or Melbourne loses three games.

Melbourne play:

Crows @ MCG
Tigers @ MCG
North @ Blundstone
Blues @ MCG
Hawks @ MCG
Swans @ SCG

Tricky games on current formline could be Blues at the MCG, Swans for Buddy's last game and then maybe Tigers or Crows at the MCG.

Then Demons miracle comeback win has really cemented their top four win.

[angelopetraglia]

Be line ball I reckon.

Giants tough. That's a 50/50.
Bombers I think is an L.
Tigers I think is a W.
Hawks depends on which Hawks turn up. Should be a W.
Do we want to make it with that form line?

Part of me prefers we miss and a review is forced.

I don't think any game is an easy win the way we are playing. But if we clicked and turn it on. That is a massive if. The season is still very much alive.

[Grantysghost]

I don't think any game is an easy win the way we are playing. But if we clicked and turn it on. That is a massive if. The season is still very much alive.

The Blues have. We aren't miles off it, not like we are getting blown away.
Swans in Sydney is never an easy prospect. Shame it didn't fall our way.

[azabob]

Be line ball I reckon.

Giants tough. That's a 50/50.
Bombers I think is an L.
Tigers I think is a W.
Hawks depends on which Hawks turn up. Should be a W.
Do we want to make it with that form line?

Part of me prefers we miss and a review is forced.

Sam Taylor will have a field day intercepting our forward entries, coupled with Toby Greene, definitely a 50/50 game.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

I have this as final ladder predictor after this round.
So we finish alone on 56 points, Geelong 58.
We'd play Saints first final.

1Collingwood2120139.1
2Port Adelaide1850111.4
3Melbourne1760126.0
4Brisbane Lions1670126.2
5Geelong1481120.2
6Western Bulldogs1490110.8
7St Kilda13100101.8
8GWS13100100.6
9Essendon12110101.0
10Gold Coast1112096.3

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Looking at that it would not surprise me to see us win only North and WC.

North (Marvel) ?should? be a win
Freo (Marvel) 50/50
Collingwood (Marvel) LOSS
Sydney (SCG) LOSS
Essendon (Marvel) 50/50 if we can keep Wright quiet
Giants (Mars) 50/50
Richmond (Marvel) will Lynch be back ??
Hawks (Tas) our record is horrendous 50/50
WCE (Marvel) if we don?t win this?.well?.
Geelong (Sedat Park) no way in hell, especially if they are playing for top 4.

So, I only see Coll, Syd and Geel as definite losses.
Freo, Ess, Giants, Rich, Hawks all 50/50 so say we win 3 of them
North and WC as wins.

That?s 5 more wins.
We will probably finish 9th on percentage (where I predicted haha)
I you may see yourself as a realist but my optimism says you are so pessimistic!

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Well that's actually fine providing it's also backed by the 'buck stops here'.

A benign dictator is perfect anywhere and anytime.

[chef]

We dont need to make top 4 to do some damage, we'll play finals.

[GVGjr]

We dont need to make top 4 to do some damage, we'll play finals.

I hope so, at the moment we are limping into it and we do need to make an impact.

[chef]

I hope so, at the moment we are limping into it and we do need to make an impact.

Im not sure we are limping, we just arent putting it all together atm. If we can work out how to do that we are a very good team that can take it up to the best.

[Mantis]

Im not sure we are limping, we just arent putting it all together atm. If we can work out how to do that we are a very good team that can take it up to the best.

And that’s the frustrating bit.

I have no confidence we can find the right formula to play consistently well across a game, or set of games to ensure we have a good finish to the season… but the talent is certainly there.

[chef]

And that’s the frustrating bit.

I have no confidence we can find the right formula to play consistently well across a game, or set of games to ensure we have a good finish to the season… but the talent is certainly there.

I guess the thing that gives me optimism is that we've shown a few times that we don't have to be the best team or in the best form going into the finals to do some damage, we just need to put it all together once we get there.

[bornadog]

Im not sure we are limping, we just arent putting it all together atm. If we can work out how to do that we are a very good team that can take it up to the best.

We certainly are not limping, we are not good at finishing games off. West hits the post, Cody misses a goal he would normally get and suddenly things change.

[merantau]

"There are things we know .... "
The one thing I know is that, putting 2021 aside, every season since 2016 has frustrated the hell out of me. Death by a thousand cuts would be easier to take.

[Danjul]

We certainly are not limping, we are not good at finishing games off. West hits the post, Cody misses a goal he would normally get and suddenly things change.
A few Individual mistakes should not have had an impact on whether we won or lost.

we had a dominant AA ruckman who basically didn?t have an opponent, we had in form forwards, we had numerous players with 30 disposals. The result was 6 goals after quarter time.

Swans supporters had pencilled in a big loss a week ago. How did we engineer such a loss against a depleted team whose season was over? Easy. Only Sydney displayed a game plan focused on …. team.

[bornadog]

A few Individual mistakes should not have had an impact on whether we won or lost.

we had a dominant AA ruckman who basically didn?t have an opponent, we had in form forwards, we had numerous players with 30 disposals. The result was 6 goals after quarter time.

Swans supporters had pencilled in a big loss a week ago. How did we engineer such a loss against a depleted team whose season was over? Easy. Only Sydney displayed a game plan focused on …. team.

Sydney are no more depleted than us, they are missing a couple of players as we are. Most of their GF players are back playing.

[Sedat]

There should be internal belief and total expectation that we can run the table from this Friday night to the final round of the season. None of our opponents in that 5 week run are unbeatable and they all have deficiencies (as do we to be fair). On talent we should expect to win all 5 and then have our customary loss against our kryptonite in R24.

Whether or not that happens is another matter altogether, but with our talent we should expect nothing less to be frank.

[angelopetraglia]

There should be internal belief and total expectation that we can run the table from this Friday night to the final round of the season. None of our opponents in that 5 week run are unbeatable and they all have deficiencies (as do we to be fair). On talent we should expect to win all 5 and then have our customary loss against our kryptonite in R24.

Whether or not that happens is another matter altogether, but with our talent we should expect nothing less to be frank.

Agree 100%. If we can't get the job done on Friday night. There will be a lot of hard questions asked and rightly so.

[Rocket Science]

Less than ideal that Carlton (vs Eagles), Richmond (vs Hawks) and St.Kilda (vs North) all have effective walkovers this round.

Dust off the pitchforks friends.

[Sedat]

Less than ideal that Carlton (vs Eagles), Richmond (vs Hawks) and St.Kilda (vs North) all have effective walkovers this round.

Dust off the pitchforks friends.
We're playing a team who was embarrassed by 13 goals last start, who are also young and starting to feel the pinch of a long season. We win (as we should), then the other results don't matter and we also retain the 'easier' fixtures up our sleeve for later in the season.

Pitchforks will rightly come out if we don't get it done this week, but I expect us to win.

[Grantysghost]

We're playing a team who was embarrassed by 13 goals last start, who are also young and starting to feel the pinch of a long season. We win (as we should), then the other results don't matter and we also retain the 'easier' fixtures up our sleeve for later in the season.

Pitchforks will rightly come out if we don't get it done this week, but I expect us to win.

They beat the Crows the week before, and all but beat the Power prior.
Typical young side can turn it on, up and down results (lost to Freo, beat Blues etc).

We should win, however their speed has me concerned.

They knocked us off in that 21 game when Bruce did his knee, think they had some insane amount of score from stoppage.

Edit : They won clearances 47-31 and scored 70 points to 21 from stoppage source.
39 of the 70 from the centre.

[Mantis]

They beat the Crows the week before, and all but beat the Power prior.
Typical young side can turn it on, up and down results (lost to Freo, beat Blues etc).

We should win, however their speed has me concerned.

They knocked us off in that 21 game when Bruce did his knee, think they had some insane amount of score from stoppage.

Edit : They won clearances 47-31 and scored 70 points to 21 from stoppage source.
39 of the 70 from the centre.

Draper (who will hopefully miss this week) gave English a touch up in the middle and Stringer won 3-4 centre clearances late that hurt us... but we had Cordy & Schache as our key defenders as Wright kicked 7 straight including 3-4 from outside 50... he couldn't miss!

[Grantysghost]

Draper (who will hopefully miss this week) gave English a touch up in the middle and Stringer won 3-4 centre clearances late that hurt us... but we had Cordy & Schache as our key defenders as Wright kicked 7 straight including 3-4 from outside 50... he couldn't miss!

I'm nervous! My biggest hate, losing to that lot.

[Danjul]

Draper (who will hopefully miss this week) gave English a touch up in the middle and Stringer won 3-4 centre clearances late that hurt us... but we had Cordy & Schache as our key defenders as Wright kicked 7 straight including 3-4 from outside 50... he couldn't miss!
Didn?t Lobb do the same thing against us last year. 7 disposals, all marks, and 4 long goals from outside 50.

looking forward to seeing Lobb do it again.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Big game for us and what a round it is.

[hujsh]

Seeing a few posts mentioning we'll miss the 8 so I thought to myself, 'let's have a look at what games we have left and test that a bit'

The run home is
North (Marvel) Won
Freo (Marvel) Won
Collingwood (Marvel) Lost
Sydney (SCG) Lost
Essendon (Marvel) Won
Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)
Geelong (Sedat Park)

With a 7-6 record you'd assume 5-6 wins from these last 10 gets us in the 8 (12 wins might mean you miss on percentage if you're unlucky like Carlton lol)

What're you feeling? Which 5-6 teams beat us? We won't win at Sedat Park. Collingwood is a big ask. Who scares you in the remainder of the pack? Is it Essendon? Is the SCG too far for us to travel? Will the non-canon nature of UTAS sink us once again?

So for what it's worth I had Sydney and Essendon both as toss ups. We lost one and won the other but maybe more importantly (my independent thought definitely not from a TV personality of any kind) Essendon are competition for a top 8 spot and Sydney probably aren't. If we win the next 4 we're in

[hujsh]

Oh and aside from Adelaide percentage shouldn't hurt us because everyone who hasn't had a draw somehow has worse percentage right now

[bulldogtragic]

Oh and aside from Adelaide percentage shouldn't hurt us because everyone who hasn't had a draw somehow has worse percentage right now

I think over the next two weeks we bring back Lobb, JJ & Liam Jones and hopefully run them into form and hope for the best. If they can get to their best footy then that’s a monumental upgrade on tonight’s Bruce, VDM & Khamis. Which bodes well for the keeping winning, which we just need to keep doing. Then hopefully stay injury free. If the MC can just stop rotating everyone through West’s spot and leave him there, then the continuity and stability will help too. Scott just needs to keep playing a role and if we stay healthy there’s probably an extra winger, so the last spot if we reward VFL form is if Baker or Poulter drops form. On paper it reads ok, but backing up wins isn’t a strong suit. So I hope we keep winning, stay healthy and run the gun players into form. Then we should make finals. Should…

[bulldogtragic]

Live ladders has the teams with draws winning three more each and finishing 6, 7 & 8.

So to keep ourselves in we need at least three more wins:

Giants (Mars)
Richmond (Marvel)
Hawks (Tas)
WCE (Marvel)
Geelong (Sedat Park)

Assuming the last two are a win and a loss.

It’s now simple as two wins against GWS, Tigers &/or Hawks.

[macca]

Honestly , i expect us to win all these last 5 games, want to finish top 4. We win all , we deserve the double chance

[BornInDroopSt'54]

I did predictor us 5th Cats 8th!

2Port Adelaide1940117.6
3Brisbane Lions1760127.9
4Melbourne1760125.3
5Western Bulldogs1580112.3
6Essendon13100100.1
7Carlton12101113.2
8Geelong11111117.6
9Richmond1111196.9
10St Kilda1112099.0
11GWS1112096.2
12Sydney10121108.6
13Gold Coast1013093.1
14Adelaide9140106.6
15Fremantle815087.4
16Hawthorn617079.7
17North Melbourne320070.6
18West Coast122053.7
QF1
Collingwood
Melbourne
EF1
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
EF2
Essendon
Carlton

[1eyedog]

I did predictor us 5th Cats 8th!

2Port Adelaide1940117.6
3Brisbane Lions1760127.9
4Melbourne1760125.3
5Western Bulldogs1580112.3
6Essendon13100100.1
7Carlton12101113.2
8Geelong11111117.6
9Richmond1111196.9
10St Kilda1112099.0
11GWS1112096.2
12Sydney10121108.6
13Gold Coast1013093.1
14Adelaide9140106.6
15Fremantle815087.4
16Hawthorn617079.7
17North Melbourne320070.6
18West Coast122053.7
QF1
Collingwood
Melbourne
EF1
Western Bulldogs
Geelong
EF2
Essendon
Carlton

Beating Geelong in an EF at Marvel and breaking that hoodoo would be a pass as far as I'm concerned. Then bring on 2024.

[Sedat]

Beating Geelong in an EF at Marvel and breaking that hoodoo would be a pass as far as I'm concerned. Then bring on 2024.
You are a glutton for punishment 1ED

[angelopetraglia]

Sam Landsberger

Fixture integrity

By the end of round 22 Essendon will have played four games against North Melbourne and West Coast compared to the Western Bulldogs’ one. In a season where 10 clubs are still scrambling for a place in the bottom half of the top eight, and two uncompetitive clubs are holding up the ladder, fixture integrity – or lack thereof – is likely to decide who plays finals. Combined the Eagles and Roos are on a 31-game losing streak and so double-up games against both clubs is the equivalent of 16 premiership points and a big bite of percentage. On a week where club bosses met to discuss radical ways to spice up the season, surely the priority should be equalizing the fixture so the best teams – and not those with the best draws – qualify for September.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Sam Landsberger

Fixture integrity

By the end of round 22 Essendon will have played four games against North Melbourne and West Coast compared to the Western Bulldogs? one. In a season where 10 clubs are still scrambling for a place in the bottom half of the top eight, and two uncompetitive clubs are holding up the ladder, fixture integrity ? or lack thereof ? is likely to decide who plays finals. Combined the Eagles and Roos are on a 31-game losing streak and so double-up games against both clubs is the equivalent of 16 premiership points and a big bite of percentage. On a week where club bosses met to discuss radical ways to spice up the season, surely the priority should be equalizing the fixture so the best teams ? and not those with the best draws ? qualify for September.

It's a huge issue and blight on the game in my opinion. Everyone carrying on about the wild card matches saying teams who didn't make the 8 after 23 games shouldn't have a right to play for finals. But you've got essendon banking 16 free points who might finish 8th on % or 4pts and then another team finishing 9th who only played the bottom 2 sides once each and probably beat essendon at least once.

AFL needs to figure out a format based on 17 games.

[jeemak]

This guy doesn’t understand how important it is to continually meddle and artificially manipulate the game. How else can the AFEL justify having a thousand head office staffers?

[bulldogtragic]

This guy doesn’t understand how important it is to continually meddle and artificially manipulate the game. How else can the AFEL justify having a thousand head office staffers?

Exactly. How can the AFEL “Make Essendon Great Again” (MEGA Movement) if they have to do it on a level playing field?

[bornadog]

Keep winning and the rest takes care of itself

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Beating Geelong in an EF at Marvel and breaking that hoodoo would be a pass as far as I'm concerned. Then bring on 2024.
I changed my prediction after navigating every game between now and end and now have us beating Cats in last round so bring on EF.

[bulldogtragic]

i changed my prediction after navigating every game between now and end and now have us beating cats in last round so bring on ef.

ruok?

[SonofScray]

It's a huge issue and blight on the game in my opinion. Everyone carrying on about the wild card matches saying teams who didn't make the 8 after 23 games shouldn't have a right to play for finals. But you've got essendon banking 16 free points who might finish 8th on % or 4pts and then another team finishing 9th who only played the bottom 2 sides once each and probably beat essendon at least once.

AFL needs to figure out a format based on 17 games.

Why can’t it be everyone plays each other twice?

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Why can’t it be everyone plays each other twice?

Don't think the aflpa would approve and rightly so. 34 game season plus finals is too taxing on the players.

[bornadog]

AFL needs to figure out a format based on 17 games.

That would effect the TV rights and dollars paid.

Get ready for 24 games next year and a wild card entry to finals.

[1eyedog]

You are a glutton for punishment 1ED

Yes my deep hatred for Geelong means this is my lot in life.

I'm not typically an optimistic person at all and I agree my prediction of a finals win against Geelong is a bridge too far.

[jeemak]

Yes my deep hatred for Geelong means this is my lot in life.

I'm not typically an optimistic person at all and I agree my prediction of a finals win against Geelong is a bridge too far.

We'll beat them at the MCG where they can't clog up space. We just won't ever beat them at Sedat Park or Docklands.

[Bulldog Joe]

A fairer fixture is not as difficult as everyone seems to believe.

A conference system

North - 2 NSW, 2 Qld plus 2 Vic Based

West - 2 WA, 2 SA, plus 2 Vic based

South - Remaining Vic teams

Play everyone once
Play the other 5 in your conference as double ups.

Top 2 from each plus best 2 3rd place make final 8 - ranking to take into account relative performance of each conference.

OR

2 conferences of 9

Play everyone once and double up on other 8 in your section. 25 game roster.

Top 4 from each to finals with crossover after 1st round of finals.

[MrMahatma]

How would you make sure the rich clubs get enough blockbusters?

[Bulldog Joe]

How would you make sure the rich clubs get enough blockbusters?

It wouldn't have any impact on blockbusters.

Those clubs can be in the same conference and still have the 2 games against each other that the AFL craves for revenue

[1eyedog]

A fairer fixture is not as difficult as everyone seems to believe.

A conference system

North - 2 NSW, 2 Qld plus 2 Vic Based

West - 2 WA, 2 SA, plus 2 Vic based

South - Remaining Vic teams

Play everyone once
Play the other 5 in your conference as double ups.

Top 2 from each plus best 2 3rd place make final 8 - ranking to take into account relative performance of each conference.

OR

2 conferences of 9

Play everyone once and double up on other 8 in your section. 25 game roster.

Top 4 from each to finals with crossover after 1st round of finals.

Will the two Vic teams / supporters in each of the west and north be disadvantaged by having to play more games away against interstate teams? Travelling to Perth twice and Adelaide twice (including double up games) for the four west / north conference Vic teams would be arse.

Also, I suppose the southern conference would be Richmond, Essendon, Collingwood Carlton, Geelong and perhaps Hawthorn so the AFEL can maximise blockbusters and the anticipated economic return on double up games?

Will a conference type approach favour the interstate teams and the AFEL? Teams like us, North, St Kilda Melbourne would surely lose out meaning the have and have not gap widens.

I may be reading this wrong.

[hujsh]

I think the simpler solution is you play every team once. Swap home and away each year. Much more fair IMO. There's a slight bit of luck that maybe the away games you play one year happen to be against worse performing teams but it should all even out and is no different to luck around injuries and form.

They won't do it because it means less games which means less money. Maybe you fix (if it must be fixed) that by eliminating the bottom 10 and doing another 7 games, just the top 8, to determine finals positions?

[Grantysghost]

I think the simpler solution is you play every team once. Swap home and away each year. Much more fair IMO. There's a slight bit of luck that maybe the away games you play one year happen to be against worse performing teams but it should all even out and is no different to luck around injuries and form.

They won't do it because it means less games which means less money. Maybe you fix (if it must be fixed) that by eliminating the bottom 10 and doing another 7 games, just the top 8, to determine finals positions?

It will never happen, and I don't really like the idea of tethering years together eg one year here one year there.

Need to have Pies Blues twice, WCE Freo twice, PA v Adel twice, etc etc...

TBH I think we get the finalists right each year so that's probably all that matters.

For me the big change needs to be if you're the home side you play at your home ground in the finals.

Inc the GF.

After 2016 of course !

[bornadog]

It will never happen, and I don't really like the idea of tethering years together eg one year here one year there.

Need to have Pies Blues twice, WCE Freo twice, PA v Adel twice, etc etc...

TBH I think we get the finalists right each year so that's probably all that matters.

For me the big change needs to be if you're the home side you play at your home ground in the finals.

Inc the GF.

After 2016 of course !

Why.

May as well let Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon and Richmond play each other every week. The contrived fixture is a joke.


Inc the GF.



Now I know you are joking

[Boots]

I think the simpler solution is you play every team once. Swap home and away each year. Much more fair IMO. There's a slight bit of luck that maybe the away games you play one year happen to be against worse performing teams but it should all even out and is no different to luck around injuries and form.

They won't do it because it means less games which means less money. Maybe you fix (if it must be fixed) that by eliminating the bottom 10 and doing another 7 games, just the top 8, to determine finals positions?

A 17-round fixture plus finals also likely means fewer injuries, and a less gruelling season means more good games because players are less exhausted. I know it will never happen but it makes far more sense than almost any other way to do it.

[Sedat]

A fairer fixture is not as difficult as everyone seems to believe.

A conference system

North - 2 NSW, 2 Qld plus 2 Vic Based

West - 2 WA, 2 SA, plus 2 Vic based

South - Remaining Vic teams

Play everyone once
Play the other 5 in your conference as double ups.

Top 2 from each plus best 2 3rd place make final 8 - ranking to take into account relative performance of each conference.

OR

2 conferences of 9

Play everyone once and double up on other 8 in your section. 25 game roster.

Top 4 from each to finals with crossover after 1st round of finals.
For mine (and we are several years away from this), get a 20th team in the competition (1-2 years after Tassie, say NT/FNQ) and revert to a 19 round season where everybody plays each other once. Get rid of all the selling home games interstate rubbish. Happy to then bring in wildcard round for 7 v 10 and 8 v 9 to partially fulfil the less games.

It's not perfect but there will not be anything fairer. Until then, there are simply too many inequities to do a half-assed job rectifying them that will make nobody happy.

[bulldogtragic]

For mine (and we are several years away from this), get a 20th team in the competition (1-2 years after Tassie, say NT/FNQ) and revert to a 19 round season where everybody plays each other once. Get rid of all the selling home games interstate rubbish. Happy to then bring in wildcard round for 7 v 10 and 8 v 9 to partially fulfil the less games.

It's not perfect but there will not be anything fairer. Until then, there are simply too many inequities to do a half-assed job rectifying them that will make nobody happy.

Was about to say this. Fast track the 20th licence and do this. They might need to have two byes, and/or wild card and/or exhibition game (which the players want) to fill out each club playing four less games. The TV Rights dollars will suffer with a four game reduction and the AFEL won’t allow it. So if we could pad the games out or add in a high dollar prize pre season comp for four weeks maybe, then absolutely play everyone once is the fairest - with the home venue alternating from year to year.

[bornadog]

Was about to say this. Fast track the 20th licence and do this. They might need to have two byes, and/or wild card and/or exhibition game (which the players want) to fill out each club playing four less games. The TV Rights dollars will suffer with a four game reduction and the AFEL won’t allow it. So if we could pad the games out or add in a high dollar prize pre season comp for four weeks maybe, then absolutely play everyone once is the fairest - with the home venue alternating from year to year.

two extra teams will be two extra games per week. (TV Rights)

[bulldogtragic]

two extra teams will be two extra games per week. (TV Rights)

One game a week… :D

Losing 36, but getting 19 back is just a net loss of 17 games. Still need something but it starts to resemble a level playing field for the clubs if the AFEL & TV partners can do the deal.

[Sedat]

two extra teams will be two extra games per week. (TV Rights)
One extra, but still a valid point. That's 19 extra games in H&A plus the 2 wildcard finals. They lose those 4 extra rounds (so 36 games (including Gather Round). A net loss of 15 games is not massive (net loss of 6 games without Gather Round, which I reckon will die a natural death after the 3 years in SA are up - novelty factor is high and it won't work anywhere else except maybe Perth)

I like the idea of making the games matter more. A 19 game season is plenty long enough and will also appease the AFLPA who are bemoaning every extra minute the players play.

[bornadog]

One game a week… :D

Losing 36, but getting 19 back is just a net loss of 17 games. Still need something but it starts to resemble a level playing field for the clubs if the AFEL & TV partners can do the deal.


One extra, but still a valid point. That's 19 extra games in H&A plus the 2 wildcard finals. They lose those 4 extra rounds (so 36 games (including Gather Round). A net loss of 17 games is not massive (net loss of 8 games without Gather Round)

I like the idea of making the games matter more. A 19 game season is plenty long enough and will also appease the AFLPA who are bemoaning every extra minute the players play.

sorry I can't add :o

I mentioned somewhere AFL are thinking of 24 rounds next year

[Grantysghost]

Why.

May as well let Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon and Richmond play each other every week. The contrived fixture is a joke.

Now I know you are joking

I agree it's wrong - but they'll never change it.

Re the GF - if you want integrity like I believe you are arguing for this is of course the only way.

Crows shouldn't have finished top and played the Tigers on their home ground in 2017 shirley!

[azabob]

sorry I can't add :o

I mentioned somewhere AFL are thinking of 24 rounds next year

Ah... what is your field of work ;)

[GVGjr]

A 17-round fixture plus finals also likely means fewer injuries, and a less gruelling season means more good games because players are less exhausted. I know it will never happen but it makes far more sense than almost any other way to do it.

I'd have 3 leagues of 6. You play each of the teams in your league twice and the other leagues once giving a 22 round season.
Top two for each league go into the finals and if the AFL is hellbent on a wildcard then a play off between the next best 2 performed teams could be the solution.

[Axe Man]

sorry I can't add :o

I mentioned somewhere AFL are thinking of 24 rounds next year

There are 24 rounds this year.

[bornadog]

There are 24 rounds this year.

Games then - only 23 this year

[EasternWest]

Ah... what is your field of work ;)

He's a problem solver. He solves problems. The solutions may or may not involve the Yarraville Nets.

[bulldogtragic]

Pretty good odds to miss now. I don’t want to make up the numbers and get embarrassed in a EF again, again. Let’s get a Top 10 pick ahead of Croft and rebuild.

That’s the only positive now.

[jeemak]

I always thought a demonstration of how versus an explanation of how was going to be more fun.

Aren't we all having fun!

[BornInDroopSt'54]

We still finish 5th.

[chef]

Hope will still make it. The seasons wide open and you just need a month of great footy to pinch it.

[SonofScray]

Hope will still make it. The seasons wide open and you just need a month of great footy to pinch it.

I have seen the future and there is no good month of footy on its way. Sorry.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

I have seen the future and there is no good month of footy on its way. Sorry.

Lucky to string 4 quarters together at this point let alone 4 games.

[DOG GOD]

I have seen the future and there is no good month of footy on its way. Sorry.

Same. WC we will probably just scrape over the line.

Rich will be too quick.
Hawks in Launceston…poor record
Wc a possible win
Geelong at Geel…no chance.

We could probably finish as low as 13th if this eventuates.

[chef]

I have seen the future and there is no good month of footy on its way. Sorry.

Yeah i get its all doom and gloom on here atm. You just never know.

A top 8 team beat another top 8 team by 4 points.

[bulldogtragic]

Same. WC we will probably just scrape over the line.

Rich will be too quick.
Hawks in Launceston…poor record
Wc a possible win
Geelong at Geel…no chance.

We could probably finish as low as 13th if this eventuates.

We won’t contend this year. The draft pick as early as we can (before a Croft bid) is now my focus.

[Boots]

Pretty good odds to miss now. I don?t want to make up the numbers and get embarrassed in a EF again, again. Let?s get a Top 10 pick ahead of Croft and rebuild.

That?s the only positive now.

I?ve been guilty of saying I?d rather miss finals than get knocked out first round but I?ve changed my mind on that. Finals matter. Top eight matters. It?s an extra week of income for the club at a minimum.

Something is definitely wrong with the team but we are not in rebuild territory. We?ve got a range of stupid, persistent, annoying issues that are so predictable you can set your watch by them (runs of goals against, inaccuracy, easy goals out the back) but we are losing games by a goal or two.

Yes the issues are persistent, yes they are real, yes they are annoying. Yes we are no fun to watch right now. But we are not far off. That?s what playing finals means! We like to catastrophise about the end of the Bont years but he?s two years younger than Toby Greene and look how he played today. Things are really not that bad. They?re just annoying. Yes we will go out week one but we are going to play finals! We could be Carlton, missing every year by some stupid margin and hating ourselves.

For me, the irritation is that we won?t be able to fix this shit without a preseason. Just hurry up and get it over with. Every week is a chance of an ACL or a broken arm or one concussion too many to someone we can?t lose. I want to fast forward to next march just to see how great we can be with a clean slate and a refreshed system rather than a cobbled together mess we made up in round 3 to salvage our season.

[EasternWest]

Yeah i get its all doom and gloom on here atm.

It's the absence of macaroons that's bringing us down

[bornadog]

It's the absence of macaroons that's bringing us down

Chef had them in Ballarat but you didn't show up :eek:

[bulldogtragic]

I?ve been guilty of saying I?d rather miss finals than get knocked out first round but I?ve changed my mind on that. Finals matter. Top eight matters. It?s an extra week of income for the club at a minimum.

Something is definitely wrong with the team but we are not in rebuild territory. We?ve got a range of stupid, persistent, annoying issues that are so predictable you can set your watch by them (runs of goals against, inaccuracy, easy goals out the back) but we are losing games by a goal or two.

Yes the issues are persistent, yes they are real, yes they are annoying. Yes we are no fun to watch right now. But we are not far off. That?s what playing finals means! We like to catastrophise about the end of the Bont years but he?s two years younger than Toby Greene and look how he played today. Things are really not that bad. They?re just annoying. Yes we will go out week one but we are going to play finals! We could be Carlton, missing every year by some stupid margin and hating ourselves.

For me, the irritation is that we won?t be able to fix this shit without a preseason. Just hurry up and get it over with. Every week is a chance of an ACL or a broken arm or one concussion too many to someone we can?t lose. I want to fast forward to next march just to see how great we can be with a clean slate and a refreshed system rather than a cobbled together mess we made up in round 3 to salvage our season.

I respect your view and optimism. But I think the time rebuild is now. I’ve been saying it for a long while now. But doing it properly now can give us that clean stare and propel us quickly back up the ladder. I think the list is broken and we need to do something now. But I accept the club also thinks it’s only a tweak off winning the flag. I just don’t see it in this list under this coach.

[chef]

It's the absence of macaroons that's bringing us down

How do you know i wasnt handing them out today?

[EasternWest]

Chef had them in Ballarat but you didn't show up :eek:

Lol


How do you know i wasnt handing them out today?

Because I know you wouldn't do me like that

[josie]

Although I?ll be illogically, pessimistically hopeful if we scrape into the 8 I think in my heart of hearts it really would be better if we don?t make the 8 and then hopefully the club takes a good hard critical look at itself; the makeup of the coaches, the fitness, the leadership (on and off field), the recruiting, integrity of MC selections, the medical treatments, the practice drills??

The review needs to involve external folks and needs to leave no stone unturned. If it?s true the players and possibly the club did not conduct a detailed analysis of not only the GF loss in 2021 but also how we missed the 4 back then I want that on the review table now too.

Realism for me has trumped hoping other teams lose and we somehow stumble into the 8, maybe win a final (unlikely). It?s like delaying the removal of an ingrown toenail. Let?s rip it out asap and start the regrowth sooner.

[soupman]

Rebuild talk is crazy.

Firstly there is no way the club actually does it, we have far too many key players that will be 30+ if it takes even just 2 seasons. What's the point of rebuilding if you have to immediately replace 5-6 key players again halfway through it, including a generational player who will by then be on the downward trajectory?

Secondly, whats the real benefit of finishing 10th vs finishing 7th? A marginally better draft pick? I would trade pick 9 for pick 13 in a heartbeat if it means we have a chance in the finals. As infuriating as this group is it is more than capable of winning a final, which would be a big step forward in a number of ways, and we know that there is a non-zero chance we go nuts again. Finals are what we play for, and finals are fun. If we are going to be mediocre and get a mediocre first rounder we might as well try and have fun.

Also the idea that finishing 3-5 spots lower on the ladder gets us a bonus pick and Croft is purely hypothetical. The draft is ages away, the odds of the bid falling exactly between say pick 9 and pick 13 are not high. Sure, it very well may, but being happy with throwing away wins and finals chances for that specific scenario only for the bid to come at pick 20 and it all being moot is as unambitious as you can get.

[Sedat]

Rebuild talk is crazy.

Firstly there is no way the club actually does it, we have far too many key players that will be 30+ if it takes even just 2 seasons. What's the point of rebuilding if you have to immediately replace 5-6 key players again halfway through it, including a generational player who will by then be on the downward trajectory?

Secondly, whats the real benefit of finishing 10th vs finishing 7th? A marginally better draft pick? I would trade pick 9 for pick 13 in a heartbeat if it means we have a chance in the finals. As infuriating as this group is it is more than capable of winning a final, which would be a big step forward in a number of ways, and we know that there is a non-zero chance we go nuts again. Finals are what we play for, and finals are fun. If we are going to be mediocre and get a mediocre first rounder we might as well try and have fun.

Also the idea that finishing 3-5 spots lower on the ladder gets us a bonus pick and Croft is purely hypothetical. The draft is ages away, the odds of the bid falling exactly between say pick 9 and pick 13 are not high. Sure, it very well may, but being happy with throwing away wins and finals chances for that specific scenario only for the bid to come at pick 20 and it all being moot is as unambitious as you can get.
Yep. The club has clearly stated ambitions and expectations which have been on the record for years now. What they need to do for the next month is completely ignore the outside noise, dig in and do whatever it takes to finish as high on the ladder as possible and then to make a proper impact in finals if we make them.

If we somehow fail to make finals, any talk on what our list configuration is in 2024 should be made then and not now - it's only a month away. But we will need to have some brutally honest discussions about all elements of our onfield operations, because a 9-12 finish would represent a massive internal failure of performance which demands action to rectify. There is a big enough sample size of failure to execute the same way. Conceding massive run-ons is unfortunately endemic in this team and has been since the 2021 GF, a match that in hindsight looks like it has potentially broken this iteration of the playing list and coaching group (there's still time to prove otherwise). Strategy and execution are failing the same way in the last 2 years - either elements of the game plan are broken, elements of the playing list are broken, or a combination of the two. Raising the white flag and ripping everything up and starting again is not the answer IMO, but soberly assessing the obvious negative trends in our performance and making the necessary adjustments (whether it be game plan, playing list or coaching group) is absolutely essential.

[GVGjr]

Rebuild talk is crazy.

Firstly there is no way the club actually does it, we have far too many key players that will be 30+ if it takes even just 2 seasons. What's the point of rebuilding if you have to immediately replace 5-6 key players again halfway through it, including a generational player who will by then be on the downward trajectory?

Secondly, whats the real benefit of finishing 10th vs finishing 7th? A marginally better draft pick? I would trade pick 9 for pick 13 in a heartbeat if it means we have a chance in the finals. As infuriating as this group is it is more than capable of winning a final, which would be a big step forward in a number of ways, and we know that there is a non-zero chance we go nuts again. Finals are what we play for, and finals are fun. If we are going to be mediocre and get a mediocre first rounder we might as well try and have fun.

Also the idea that finishing 3-5 spots lower on the ladder gets us a bonus pick and Croft is purely hypothetical. The draft is ages away, the odds of the bid falling exactly between say pick 9 and pick 13 are not high. Sure, it very well may, but being happy with throwing away wins and finals chances for that specific scenario only for the bid to come at pick 20 and it all being moot is as unambitious as you can get.

It's a difficult position the club is in with balancing expectations and supporters being impatient for the club to maximise the Bont era
and also with our endeavors in growing membership numbers. Getting wins has to be the aim.
As you point out fluctuating draft picks won't mean much anyway.

[bornadog]

Rebuild talk is crazy.

Firstly there is no way the club actually does it, we have far too many key players that will be 30+ if it takes even just 2 seasons. What's the point of rebuilding if you have to immediately replace 5-6 key players again halfway through it, including a generational player who will by then be on the downward trajectory?

Secondly, whats the real benefit of finishing 10th vs finishing 7th? A marginally better draft pick? I would trade pick 9 for pick 13 in a heartbeat if it means we have a chance in the finals. As infuriating as this group is it is more than capable of winning a final, which would be a big step forward in a number of ways, and we know that there is a non-zero chance we go nuts again. Finals are what we play for, and finals are fun. If we are going to be mediocre and get a mediocre first rounder we might as well try and have fun.

Also the idea that finishing 3-5 spots lower on the ladder gets us a bonus pick and Croft is purely hypothetical. The draft is ages away, the odds of the bid falling exactly between say pick 9 and pick 13 are not high. Sure, it very well may, but being happy with throwing away wins and finals chances for that specific scenario only for the bid to come at pick 20 and it all being moot is as unambitious as you can get.

Well summed up Soup, I would rather play finals anytime than not, even if it is just for a week. If we can make a final, we have the capability to win one as well.

[Bulldog4life]

Although I?ll be illogically, pessimistically hopeful if we scrape into the 8 I think in my heart of hearts it really would be better if we don?t make the 8 and then hopefully the club takes a good hard critical look at itself; the makeup of the coaches, the fitness, the leadership (on and off field), the recruiting, integrity of MC selections, the medical treatments, the practice drills??

The review needs to involve external folks and needs to leave no stone unturned. If it?s true the players and possibly the club did not conduct a detailed analysis of not only the GF loss in 2021 but also how we missed the 4 back then I want that on the review table now too.

Realism for me has trumped hoping other teams lose and we somehow stumble into the 8, maybe win a final (unlikely). It?s like delaying the removal of an ingrown toenail. Let?s rip it out asap and start the regrowth sooner.

It might be 50/50 on WOOF but I think the majority of doggie supporters would prefer us to make the 8. Including me. A new "season" then begins. Anything can happen as history has shown us. Besides it is better for your health and soul being an optimist rather than a pessimist. :p

[Danjul]

Well summed up Soup, I would rather play finals anytime than not, even if it is just for a week. If we can make a final, we have the capability to win one as well.
Of course we have the capability to win a final.

On Saturday we had 4 players getting over 30 possessions. English and the Bont had very good games also. We got to a 51:17 lead in the third quarter.

Lets do that again, while being ready to switch a few things around if something gets broken. Maybe your Plan B can get a public outing.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

My predictor Sun. morn:
1Collingwood1940127.3
2Melbourne1760123.5
3Brisbane Lions1670123.2
4Port Adelaide1670109.3
5Western Bulldogs1490112.1
6Carlton1391118.0
7GWS13100100.0
8Sydney12101109.1
9St Kilda12110102.4
10Geelong11111115.2
11Adelaide11120114.1
12Essendon1112096.8
13Richmond1012194.8
14Gold Coast1013093.8
15Fremantle1013089.2
16Hawthorn617081.6
17North Melbourne221071.1
18West Coast221055.5

[Grantysghost]

My predictor Sun. morn:
1Collingwood1940127.3
2Melbourne1760123.5
3Brisbane Lions1670123.2
4Port Adelaide1670109.3
5Western Bulldogs1490112.1
6Carlton1391118.0
7GWS13100100.0
8Sydney12101109.1
9St Kilda12110102.4
10Geelong11111115.2
11Adelaide11120114.1
12Essendon1112096.8
13Richmond1012194.8
14Gold Coast1013093.8
15Fremantle1013089.2
16Hawthorn617081.6
17North Melbourne221071.1
18West Coast221055.5

If Melbourne finish second they'll romp it in.

[bornadog]

If Melbourne finish second they'll romp it in.

They wouldn't want to go to the Gabba for the first final, actually no one would

[angelopetraglia]

Putting a few different type of scenarios into the ladder predictor.

It will take a lot of upsets for us to make the finals with one win. We will need two wins. Two wins we will make it.

[angelopetraglia]

If the Pies can get themselves off the canvas and beat the Cats on Friday night. The Cats would need to win their last two games to make the finals.

It would be nice to break the hoodoo against them and deny them a finals berth in the last round.

[Testekill]

Statistically we need to win two to make finals, we do have some lower level teams coming up so that's a little less scary although we have had a tendency to drop ones that we should be winning because we just go in slack.

Beating the Cats in Geelong would be a lovely way to knock them out of the finals race.

[bulldogtragic]

If we can’t beat 16 & 18 on the ladder we have no right to be in the finals.

Just take those wins and take a free hit against Geelong. Or have an early end to the season. Simple math now.

[DOG GOD]

What’s the chance of the winner of Geel vs dogs goes into the 8 and the loser misses.

[MrMahatma]

What’s the chance of the winner of Geel vs dogs goes into the 8 and the loser misses.

We’ll both go through. We’ll finish 5th, them 8th… and we’ll play them 1st week of finals… thus two weeks in a row. And we will beat them 2 weeks in a row. And it’ll be spectacular!

[jeemak]

Do Geelong and Sydney get off lightly in the media for their poor seasons? I recall the vitriol leveled at us in 2017 for playing poorly and ultimately missing, and it doesn't seem to be as intense for either.

[azabob]

Do Geelong and Sydney get off lightly in the media for their poor seasons? I recall the vitriol leveled at us in 2017 for playing poorly and ultimately missing, and it doesn't seem to be as intense for either.

Sydney definitely were early in the year. Geelong not as much.

[jeemak]

I hope both miss. Their shitty grounds and mollycoddling in the media really annoys me.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

If we can’t beat 16 & 18 on the ladder we have no right to be in the finals.

Just take those wins and take a free hit against Geelong. Or have an early end to the season. Simple math now.

Yeah of all the teams fighting for positions 5-8, we have the easiest run home and currently sit in the 8. It'd be embarrassing to miss from here. Beat 16th this week and it's all but done.

[jeemak]

It's not as simple as just beating 16th or whatever, outside of WCE and Norf all teams can rattle you and win on their day.

Notwithstanding the ridiculous fixture that sees some teams benefitting from a win/ loss/ percentage point of view by getting a leg up early in the season, teams evolve throughout the year and the competition tightens up as form and injuries take their toll.

If we lose on the weekend against Hawthorn at Launceston is it a massive black eye for us? Possibly/ maybe/ probably, but they just knocked off the ladder leaders on neutral territory and are clearly building with dangerous/ capable players all over the ground.

I'm not trying to make excuses, but if we lose this week and miss because of it it's not just down to that one loss when it counted. The miss would be a culmination of many misses across the year where we didn't capitalise on opportunities, had issues with our defence due to personnel and general execution in games where we couldn't hang on.

And that's why we're all so frustrated. A bit more attention to detail, better execution across the journey and we're not in this position.

[bornadog]

The run home



Carlton

Bulldogs

Saints

GWS

Cats

Sydney

Adl
Dons


















Demons

Hawks

Tigers

Port (adl)

Coll (MCG)

Suns

Lions (Gabba)
North


Suns

Wcoast

Cats

Dons

Saints

Crows (adl)

Swans
GWS (away)


Giants

Cats

Lions (Gabba)

Blues

Dogs

Dees (SCG)

Wcoast
Pies

[Boots]

Do Geelong and Sydney get off lightly in the media for their poor seasons? I recall the vitriol leveled at us in 2017 for playing poorly and ultimately missing, and it doesn't seem to be as intense for either.

I think they do a bit, but I feel like the narrative there is that they overperform with their lists rather than underperform with them. Geelong also get a lot of credit for “winning” big name trades (Danger, Cameron) and Sydney for unearthing academy stars who nobody else noticed (Gulden).

Whereas we get shit for effectively getting two #1 picks in a row and not really going anywhere with them (yet), or unearthing a superb forward who then can’t kick goals (Naughton). In the weeks we perform with that lot they salivate over us. But they scratch their heads at the same games we do. Geelong and Sydney just don’t have those games as often.

[bornadog]

Mathematically speaking:

* Dogs win next 3


* Port drop all 3. (GWS, Freo in WA & Tiges sending off some retirees)


* Carlton drop 1 of their last 3. (Melb, GC on the GC and GWS)

Dogs finish 4th

[Bulldog Joe]

Mathematically speaking:

* Dogs win next 3


* Port drop all 3. (GWS, Freo in WA & Tiges sending off some retirees)


* Carlton drop 1 of their last 3. (Melb, GC on the GC and GWS)

Dogs finish 4th

Carlton dropping 1 certainly on the cards, but Port dropping all three would seem a stretch.

They do have a few injuries but should get Aliir back.

[JanLorMill]

Mathematically speaking:

* Dogs win next 3


* Port drop all 3. (GWS, Freo in WA & Tiges sending off some retirees)


* Carlton drop 1 of their last 3. (Melb, GC on the GC and GWS)

Dogs finish 4th
Sorry but looking at this way means we will almost certainly lose this week.

[DOG GOD]

Sorry but looking at this way means we will almost certainly lose this week.
Especially when we have a bad record in Launceston and a horrific one at Geelong.

[bornadog]

Sorry but looking at this way means we will almost certainly lose this week.


Especially when we have a bad record in Launceston and a horrific one at Geelong.

Well at the end of the day it is up to us.

[AshMac]

ok - we dont miss finals now. What changes is perhaps whether we get a home final and if we win the first round, whether we play the second in Melbourne. We've done it before - yada yada - but this isnt that team and i have low confidence in their heart across all cattle tbh.

So......my question is..... would people here prefer we miss finals and get a higher draft pick, or play finals and bow out mid way through?

Personally, if we arent going to win it, id prefer we miss, develop a fire in their belly and come out next year barking. I dont think the team deserve to feel like the season is a success after what we've seen this year

[jeemak]

Take every opportunity to win a final you can get.

Wining a final will do good things for this group of players. Winning two even better.

Nobody knows what a draft pick in the 8-12 region will produce.

[Grantysghost]

Take every opportunity to win a final you can get.

Wining a final will do good things for this group of players. Winning two even better.

Nobody knows what a draft pick in the 8-12 region will produce.

Yes.

The draft is a lottery. Curnow went at 12

Tbe Demons traded pick 2 before the Bont etc etc.

[Bulldog Joe]

ok - we dont miss finals now. What changes is perhaps whether we get a home final and if we win the first round, whether we play the second in Melbourne. We've done it before - yada yada - but this isnt that team and i have low confidence in their heart across all cattle tbh.

So......my question is..... would people here prefer we miss finals and get a higher draft pick, or play finals and bow out mid way through?

Personally, if we arent going to win it, id prefer we miss, develop a fire in their belly and come out next year barking. I dont think the team deserve to feel like the season is a success after what we've seen this year

I won't count the season a success unless we make finals AND win our last game of the year.

[jeemak]

I won't count the season a success unless we make finals AND win our last game of the year.

Mate! You're playing for keeps!

[Bulldog Joe]

Mate! You're playing for keeps!

I have been following a looong time and remember when we had more flags than Hawthorn.

[bornadog]

ok - we dont miss finals now. What changes is perhaps whether we get a home final and if we win the first round, whether we play the second in Melbourne. We've done it before - yada yada - but this isnt that team and i have low confidence in their heart across all cattle tbh.

So......my question is..... would people here prefer we miss finals and get a higher draft pick, or play finals and bow out mid way through?

Personally, if we arent going to win it, id prefer we miss, develop a fire in their belly and come out next year barking. I dont think the team deserve to feel like the season is a success after what we've seen this year

For me finals is what it is all about, not draft picks

[Prince Imperial]

ok - we dont miss finals now. What changes is perhaps whether we get a home final and if we win the first round, whether we play the second in Melbourne. We've done it before - yada yada - but this isnt that team and i have low confidence in their heart across all cattle tbh.

So......my question is..... would people here prefer we miss finals and get a higher draft pick, or play finals and bow out mid way through?

Personally, if we arent going to win it, id prefer we miss, develop a fire in their belly and come out next year barking. I dont think the team deserve to feel like the season is a success after what we've seen this year

We don't have our natural second or third picks, so we won't get any benefit (including points for Croft) from finishing lower from these.

As others have said, win as far as we can.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

I have been following a looong time and remember when we had more flags than Hawthorn.

Me too and then poo and wee happened again and again.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

I have been following a looong time and remember when we had more flags than Hawthorn.

Me too and then poo and wee happened again and again.

[Eastdog]

I have been following a looong time and remember when we had more flags than Hawthorn.

Out of the teams (Hawks, Roos and Dogs) who came in 1925 we early on were the most successful in terms of finals appearances. North made their first GF in 1950 and we made our first one in 1954 and won being the first of those 3 to win the flag.

[Eastdog]

Mathematically speaking:

* Dogs win next 3


* Port drop all 3. (GWS, Freo in WA & Tiges sending off some retirees)


* Carlton drop 1 of their last 3. (Melb, GC on the GC and GWS)

Dogs finish 4th

Was thinking about this as well but will be difficult of course and it is largely out of our hands.

[bornadog]

Was thinking about this as well but will be difficult of course and it is largely out of our hands.

All we can do is win, win, win.

[Mantis]

Since the start of 2010 the top 2 home records in the AFL are:

Geelong - Sedat Stadium - 85.7%
Hawthorn - UTAS Stadium - 77.4%

Exciting times.

[azabob]

All we can do is win, win, win.

Wait till you see ports injury list again and a good half a dozen players who are sick.

[DOG GOD]

Since the start of 2010 the top 2 home records in the AFL are:

Geelong - Sedat Stadium - 85.7%
Hawthorn - UTAS Stadium - 77.4%

Exciting times.

Wouldn?t be surprised to see us have to best Geel to stay in the 8.

[angelopetraglia]

Since the start of 2010 the top 2 home records in the AFL are:

Geelong - Sedat Stadium - 85.7%
Hawthorn - UTAS Stadium - 77.4%

Exciting times.

Those teams have also had strong eras in that time which does bias the result.

[bornadog]

Those teams have also had strong eras in that time which does bias the result.

This year, Hawks have beaten North and WCE in Tassie and lost to Crows.

[bulldogtragic]

Now do you see?

[Jasper]

Now do you see?

I can now see the light and it's more than a bit gloomy.

[westdog54]

It's not as calamitous as it may seem.

We absolutely must put West Coast to the sword on Sunday. Throw the kitchen sink at them. Percentage could be everything. If we can do that, then from there:

- If we win and Geelong lose then Round 24 is a dead rubber for them.
- One of Essendon and GWS knocks the other out of finals contention this week.
- If Essendon beat GWS they still need to get past Collingwood next week to overtake us.
- The way I see it, Adelaide is the biggest danger. They've got Sydney at home this week and West Coast in the last round and a massive percentage. They're waiting to pounce if we can't win both games.

If we can't beat West Coast at home we'll miss finals and we'll deserve it.

[Sedat]

- The way I see it, Adelaide is the biggest danger. They've got Sydney at home this week and West Coast in the last round and a massive percentage. They're waiting to pounce if we can't win both games.
A draw between the Crows and Swans would be the ultimate result, especially if we win by enough to overtake Sydney's percentage (probably need a 10-13 goal win but I haven't calculated exactly).

[mjp]

it's not as calamitous as it may seem.


lol.

[azabob]

A draw between the Crows and Swans would be the ultimate result, especially if we win by enough to overtake Sydney's percentage (probably need a 10-13 goal win but I haven't calculated exactly).

I thought Sydneys draw made their % irrelevant to us?

[angelopetraglia]

I thought Sydneys draw made their % irrelevant to us?

Two draws = win, therefore they would be on the same points as us

[azabob]

Two draws = win, therefore they would be on the same points as us

Thanks I think. FMD our season has come down to Sydney having another draw...

I swear life use to be simpler...

[bornadog]

Thanks I think. FMD our season has come down to Sydney having another draw...

I swear life use to be simpler...

If Sydney beat Adelaide, in Adelaide, then we make it with one win against WC. If we win both games we are in anyway and doesn't matter about the other results.

[Bulldog Joe]

If Sydney beat Adelaide, in Adelaide, then we make it with one win against WC. If we win both games we are in anyway and doesn't matter about the other results.

It remains in our hands.

Problem is our hands are a bit like Jonny Bairstow.

[bornadog]

It remains in our hands.

Problem is our hands are a bit like Jonny Bairstow.

true

[angelopetraglia]

Barret "they have got a get out of jail free card this week in that they play the Eagles and one win will probably get them into the finals but they arguably don't deserve to be there"

OK. Blues are six points ahead of the Bulldogs. They have played the Eagles twice already for two 100 point wins. But because we get to play the Eagles this week we don't deserve it.

How do these people look at themselves in the mirror with the bullshit they spin?

[bulldogtragic]

Barret "they have to a get out of jail free card this week in that they play the Eagles, so

Or the draw dictates everyone play everyone else at least once.

Tomato-****face

[angelopetraglia]

Or the draw dictates everyone play everyone else at least once.

Tomato-****face

Sorry. Hit the button before I finished it. The full quote is worse.

[bulldogtragic]

Sorry. Hit the button before I finished it. The full quote is worse.

Double ****face.

Pretty sure VRED said a few weeks ago the club was at war with media and expect a shot time from them. Well the latter part is coming. There’s enough angles to criticise us legitimately right now. Invoking the draw ain’t one.

[angelopetraglia]

Also Matthew Lloyd. Barret's partner in crime. Is he the least intelligent person in the footy media landscape? He struggles to put two words together. I think the constant years of hair dye use have penetrated into his skull or maybe he has always just had a low IQ.

[EasternWest]

Also Matthew Lloyd. Is he the least intelligent person in the footy media landscape? He struggles to put two words together. I think the constant years of hair dye use have penetrated into his skull or maybe he has always just had a low IQ.

I mean, any troglodyte who thinks "I'm gonna go party with high school kids" in his 40's probably should have his opinion discarded.

[bornadog]

Barret "they have got a get out of jail free card this week in that they play the Eagles and one win will probably get them into the finals but they arguably don't deserve to be there"

OK. Blues are six points ahead of the Bulldogs. They have played the Eagles twice already for two 100 point wins. But because we get to play the Eagles this week we don't deserve it.

How do these people look at themselves in the mirror with the bullshit they spin?

I hate that word deserve, don't deserve it is bullshit. There are 23 games, and whoever is in the 8 is in the 8.

[bulldogtragic]

I hate that word deserve, don't deserve it is bullshit. There are 23 games, and whoever is in the 8 is in the 8.

The words deserve and should need to be removed from everyone’s vocabulary. The concept too in these contexts.