The Bevo Era & Percentage

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
*2023: 103.91 (1,301/1,252)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)
2023: averaging 78.25 per game - well over 10% above 2016 & 2021 levels - about 7% better than ?rest? average


This is a Rorshack Test.


For me it says that our percentage under Bevo - considering the years of finals - is:

A) very, very poor. Not getting around it.
B) consistent of our attack/scores for - be it Stringer & Toyd or Bruce & Naughton. Same mids. Not much difference. We?ve never really grown our ability to pile on the points
C) despite paying handsomely for Lobb, our scores for has gone backwards!
D) 2016 & 2021 not by coincidence have much better defensive years. But it can?t be put down just to the players. In 2016 it was Dale, Hamling & Wood. In 2021 it was Keath, Cordy & an emerging Gardner. Same mids. Did the ruck change our defence from the midfield. In 2016 there was Roughead, Campbell, Minson & Toyd. In 2021 Stef Martin, English, Sweet and Young/Bruce. Years with a bonafide first ruck supported by a second ruck and depth.
E) our defence seems to be a litmus test of how we will fare. While this year is better than the Bevo average, it?s nowhere near the levels of 2016 & 2021.
F) the mids have largely been the same over the period (Bont, Jack, Libba, Hunter et al). Is their ability to defend or not, directly tractable to our lower scores against

It also highlights, our poor goal kicking over this period has killed our percentage. If that was fixed up you could add 10 points a game at least. But we haven?t fixed it. Bruce gave it a bump (still under 2015 levels) for just a year and Lobb has seen it go backwards. So personnel hasn?t and won?t fix it on its own. Increasing our scores got will come down to coaching, skill coaching and game planning. So let’s stop chasing external players when we can see it’s down to the coach/es.

It also highlights Bevo?s no tagging philosophy might not be brilliant. Our best years are our best team defence years. Would it not be better to help our defenders by stopping mids and run ons? If strong defence gets us to Grand Finals, then play to our strengths?

It seems to me, our mids need to raise their defence, our forwards need to get accurate, our defence needs to keep improving - all things many already know. It suggests a more traditional ruck set up is at least coincide to more successful seasons. With Bevo here for a few years, it seems defence/scores against is the key metric. So I think personnel like a Barass and a Duryea replacement are very important to success going ahead.

So the club thinks it?s in the window. It might be. If it reviews the ruck and tagger roles, kicks straight, stops oppo gun mids/run ons and bring in defensive cover in the trade period. The percentage data under Bevo whilst generally poor, does support the argument some tweaks could force us into the window. But I don?t think we do anything with the ruck, we won?t tag, we won?t stop run ons and we won?t kick straight. BUT. If we could, then the club maybe right, the window is open.

What do you see?

[Bulldog Joe]

With all those stats the most common element in everything is the coach.

Surely the coach is responsible for all that.
He is in his 9th season and how we play is absolutely on him.

[bulldogtragic]

With all those stats the most common element in everything is the coach.

Surely the coach is responsible for all that.
He is in his 9th season and how we play is absolutely on him.

No doubt. The ruck and tagger decisions are his and his philosophy. The game plan and match day tactics to stop gun oppo mids and run ins are his to manage, along with team defence. His assistants are responsible for skill development (goal kicking).

Despite the turnover in forwards (Toyd, Stringer, Picken & Smith retiring early, Naughton, Bruce, Schache, Lobb, Cody etc) under Bevo his teams all pretty much kick 84 points a game. Curious?!?

But defence numbers in 2016 & 2021 show he can get around a flat lining ‘scores for’. Without huge name KPDs. But not consistently or in sequential seasons either.

But I guess, are his philosophies dated? Does the data back them still?

[jeemak]

The other common element is the playing group. I mean, when we played well this year we were extremely difficult to score against and we had the same coach, the same players, and no Jordan Sweet or Stef Martin.

I would say their lack of application for different reasons at different times is a huge factor and I don't think they should get a free pass.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

The other common element is the playing group. I mean, when we played well this year we were extremely difficult to score against and we had the same coach, the same players, and no Jordan Sweet or Stef Martin.

I would say their lack of application for different reasons at different times is a huge factor and I don't think they should get a free pass.

Is the gameplan too taxing and unsustainable week to week? We saw it applied fairly consistently in 2016 and 2021 though i suppose. But why only twice in 9 years?

Although i think out list is getting weaker, I've always thought we've previously had a list capable of much better. Capable of 2016 and 2021 like performances. It's a giant mystery to me why we've been such a roller-coaster side under Bevo.

[jeemak]

Is the gameplan too taxing and unsustainable week to week? We saw it applied fairly consistently in 2016 and 2021 though i suppose. But why only twice in 9 years?

Although i think out list is getting weaker, I've always thought we've previously had a list capable of much better. Capable of 2016 and 2021 like performances. It's a giant mystery to me why we've been such a roller-coaster side under Bevo.

Much of the Bevo era has seen us field relatively cobbled together/ emerging forward and defencive tall structures. To me when we've been able to make it work it's been a huge credit to the players for their application and also credit to the coaching team for giving them the blueprint to follow.

I think every game plan a successful team deploys is super taxing, but especially so if you have cobbled together/ emerging tall structures at either end of the ground. By nature the bulk of the work has to be done through sheer effort and planning between the arcs.

If you believe we rebuilt in the years post 2017 to 2021 (which I do), then you'd have to say that our coaching has been really good and supported by a midfield that keeps us in and wins us more games than we lose. Last year was really disappointing, this year looks like it might fall short as well, and I think that's on everyone - not just the coaching team - because the players have demonstrated they can do it right, but have lapses in games and week to week.

Others have a different view, but I think of the Bevo years there's only been two really disappointing ones for me (2017 and 2022) and in one of them we still made finals.

[Bulldog Joe]

Much of the Bevo era has seen us field relatively cobbled together/ emerging forward and defencive tall structures. To me when we've been able to make it work it's been a huge credit to the players for their application and also credit to the coaching team for giving them the blueprint to follow.

I think every game plan a successful team deploys is super taxing, but especially so if you have cobbled together/ emerging tall structures at either end of the ground. By nature the bulk of the work has to be done through sheer effort and planning between the arcs.

If you believe we rebuilt in the years post 2017 to 2021 (which I do), then you'd have to say that our coaching has been really good and supported by a midfield that keeps us in and wins us more games than we lose. Last year was really disappointing, this year looks like it might fall short as well, and I think that's on everyone - not just the coaching team - because the players have demonstrated they can do it right, but have lapses in games and week to week.

Others have a different view, but I think of the Bevo years there's only been two really disappointing ones for me (2017 and 2022) and in one of them we still made finals.
My disappoint meter is much more volatile than yours.

I only have 2 years that I am not disappointed with.

2015 and 2016 were exhilarating, but 2021 was disappointing because the decisions from about round 17 to coast through cost top 4 and we blew a premiership.

We spent lots of time playing catch up in 2018-20 until the coach decided to play more normally.

[Mofra]

We spent all pre-season talking about setting up slightly more defensively across the ground so no surprise we're scoring as little less this year.
I do wonder how much rule changes have led to coach adjustments and the flow on effects of scoring from that.

[Mantis]

We spent all pre-season talking about setting up slightly more defensively across the ground so no surprise we're scoring as little less this year.
I do wonder how much rule changes have led to coach adjustments and the flow on effects of scoring from that.

Has this change been really noticeable? After a horror start to the season we went ultra defensive in the games that followed, but it seems to me we are playng pretty much the same as previous years now and our inability to score has more to do with ball movement and skill errors rather than the way we defend.... maybe we move the ball 'safely' (as referenced by jeemak in another thread), but to me we don't consistently play it safe and if we have more attacking options we take on that route.

[Mofra]

Has this change been really noticeable? After a horror start to the season we went ultra defensive in the games that followed, but it seems to me we are playng pretty much the same as previous years now and our inability to score has more to do with ball movement and skill errors rather than the way we defend.... maybe we move the ball 'safely' (as referenced by jeemak in another thread), but to me we don't consistently play it safe and if we have more attacking options we take on that route.
We're not 10-12m in front of opposition forwards which seems to be the most eye-ball noticeable difference.

We also use the corridor less than other clubs - two rounds ago at least we were rated 18th

[lemmon]

We also use the corridor less than other clubs - two rounds ago at least we were rated 18th

Which seems a bit bizarre to me considering we have Naughton, Ugle-Hagan and Weightman playing in our forward half who'd all thrive on the ball coming in quick and direct. We also have had Dale, JJ and Richards off half back through most of the year, who should be capable of taking the ball through the middle with some degree of safety.

I wonder if it's a directive based on our team defence? If we attack wide and turnover wide, we're in a safer position to defend the ground.

[jeemak]

My disappoint meter is much more volatile than yours.

.

Oh well, we're all responsible for our own disappointment meters. :)

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)
2023: averaging 78.25 per game - well over 10% above 2016 & 2021 levels - about 7% better than ?rest? average



So we gave up exactly 78 points again Thursday night. At least we?re consistent.

Now we have the worst percentage in the top 10 and May find ourselves out of the 8 tonight on percentage.

From choking on 2021 to give up top 4 on percentage to now, it keeps coming back to bite.

[Bullies]

We seem to over possess the footy. We have 5 or 6 players who week in week out get 30+ p's. We should be dominating the games with those stats but we don't hurt the opposition. We are happy to flick it around and gather possession after possession which results in either our forwards getting covered or we turn it over.

Maybe 2 or 3 handballs rather than 6 or 7 and give our forwards a chance. Take on the game use the corridoor and don't worry about individual stats.

[bornadog]

We seem to over possess the footy. We have 5 or 6 players who week in week out get 30+ p's. We should be dominating the games with those stats but we don't hurt the opposition. We are happy to flick it around and gather possession after possession which results in either our forwards getting covered or we turn it over.

Maybe 2 or 3 handballs rather than 6 or 7 and give our forwards a chance. Take on the game use the corridoor and don't worry about individual stats.

What you are saying is we need to be more efficient with our possessions. Not sure why we are scared of the corridor.

[bulldogtragic]

What you are saying is we need to be more efficient with our possessions. Not sure why we are scared of the corridor.

Is it not the game plan? (I assume it is since we keep doing it)

[bornadog]

Is it not the game plan? (I assume it is since we keep doing it)

I know it is the game plan, but that is what I am saying, why are we not using the corridor.

[bulldogtragic]

I know it is the game plan, but that is what I am saying, why are we not using the corridor.

I’d like Bevo to tell us. I’d really like to understand the reason since other teams are using it to great effect.

[bornadog]

I’d like Bevo to tell us. I’d really like to understand the reason since other teams are using it to great effect.

Is it because, as Jeemak says, we are playing conservative footy and trying to be more defensive. Playing the wings is less risky.

[bulldogtragic]

Is it because, as Jeemak says, we are playing conservative footy and trying to be more defensive. Playing the wings is less risky.

I’m not sure. But there must be some reason for it. I’m just not sure what it is.

[anfo27]

Is it because, as Jeemak says, we are playing conservative footy and trying to be more defensive. Playing the wings is less risky.

I think thats exactly what it is. Protecting our fragile defence but its also destroying our forward line. Winning as many games as we did playing the rubbish we served up, has made our coaches think this method is working. We were just lucky. Got Freo over there when they were worse that us, carlton when they were horribly out of form, GWS without Greene, Crows without Walker & Tilthorpe. Just felt like play crap & still win but once we get our confidence back we have so much room for improvement. Still waiting.

[Bullies]

I’m not sure. But there must be some reason for it. I’m just not sure what it is. Is it because we have to many of the same type of mid fielders who are happy to accumulate possession. We don't hurt teams. Our mids don't play accountable football and are not overly quick so opposition are happy to let them accumulate. They need to change it up and take risks and take the game on.

[bornadog]

Is it because we have to many of the same type of mid fielders who are happy to accumulate possession. We don't hurt teams. Our mids don't play accountable football and are not overly quick so opposition are happy to let them accumulate. They need to change it up and take risks and take the game on.

But is that the reason we don't play the corridor? (that is what we were discussing)

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:


Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)
2023: averaging 78.25 per game - well over 10% above 2016 & 2021 levels - about 7% better than ?rest ?

Probably a coincidence:

We gave us 78 points against Sydney & GWS - this season average and lost

We restricted Richmond to our 2016 & 2021 average of 71 points - and won

When our defence holds to 71 points or better we do very well. Hold both GWS & Sydney to 71 and we win both. I guess we know where we need to focus where we are dangerous.

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
2023: 108.7 (1,919/1,766)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)
2023: 76.8 per game - well over 10% above 2016 & 2021 levels - about 7% better than ?rest? average



*2024: 123%
Points For: 94.5 per game
Points Against: 76.8 per game

So far percentage highest since 2016 & 2021 owing to higher than Bevo era average scoring (+8 per game), owing to our increased accuracy this year. While our defence is just a goal a game higher than 2016 & 2021 (on par with last year) which are outliers in the Bevo era. This is despite being 3 wins, 3 losses.

[bulldogtragic]

*2024: 123.9% (third highest, 0.4% of being second highest)
Points For: 95.7 per game
Points Against: 77.3 per game

So far percentage highest since 2016 & 2021 owing to higher than Bevo era average scoring (nearly +10 per game), owing to our increased accuracy this year. While our defence is just a goal a game higher than 2016 & 2021 (on par with last year) which are outliers in the Bevo era. This is despite being 4 wins, 5 losses.


Seems accuracy improvements and filling our boots against poor teams have been addressed as areas of improvement which we?ve improved. Our defence is holding up despite for the most part only playing one genuine KPD and moving out Richards. The scoring is also good despite Marra & Lobb pretty much non factors this year. Just disappointing the wins aren?t on the board.

[westdog54]

Worst thing about last night was how many gettable goals we missed. Could have really poured on the pain.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

*2024: 123.9% (third highest, 0.4% of being second highest)
Points For: 95.7 per game
Points Against: 77.3 per game

So far percentage highest since 2016 & 2021 owing to higher than Bevo era average scoring (nearly +10 per game), owing to our increased accuracy this year. While our defence is just a goal a game higher than 2016 & 2021 (on par with last year) which are outliers in the Bevo era. This is despite being 4 wins, 5 losses.


Seems accuracy improvements and filling our boots against poor teams have been addressed as areas of improvement which we?ve improved. Our defence is holding up despite for the most part only playing one genuine KPD and moving out Richards.
The scoring is also good despite Marra & Lobb pretty much non factors this year. Just disappointing the wins aren?t on the board.


Agree, the losses to Hawthorn and Freo in particular might really hurt us down the stretch. We've got a block of 5 matches now against GWS, Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane and Freo. Our season is either going to be done and dusted at the end of that group of matches, or we'll have demonstrated that we've found our groove.

[MrMahatma]

Agree, the losses to Hawthorn and Freo in particular might really hurt us down the stretch. We've got a block of 5 matches now against GWS, Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane and Freo. Our season is either going to be done and dusted at the end of that group of matches, or we'll have demonstrated that we've found our groove.

How many do we need to win for us to have found our groove? 3? 4?

[Sedat]

How many do we need to win for us to have found our groove? 3? 4?
We need to be bare minimum 3-2 in that block and square the season going into our bye. Would much prefer 4-1, which I think we are capable of - I have us as 50-50 the next 2 weeks (GWS currently going like busteds and are vulnerable, Swans at home off back to back short breaks for them and travel). We are also potentially 50-50 against Collingwood if they still have injury issues affecting their depth in 3 weeks time, and I have us better than even money against both Brisbane and Freo (both at home).

Defining 5 weeks coming up for us and the Bevo era. It's actually exciting to have this challenge to see exactly where we are at in 2024 and how our game plan adjustments for 2024 are progressing. Would rather we fail trying to adapt through personnel/game plan than plod along in mid table no-mans land.

[ledge]

Looking at our percentage this year tells us we are a good side , lose by little and win big.
If we won a few close ones we would have been regarded as a premiership contender, the margin is tiny. Eg an extra 14 points would have given us two more wins which places us 4th as opposed to 11th.
Also shows the importance of accurate kicking, even just 3 missed shots.

[Eastdog]

Worst thing about last night was how many gettable goals we missed. Could have really poured on the pain.

19.19 - 38 scoring shots.

Absolutely could have won by more!

[bulldogtragic]

Moved into clear second on percentage. With Sydney clear first. W/L aside, the two best teams on percentage up against each other this week.

[angelopetraglia]

We are ranked #3 for offence - points scored. Sydney #1 and Geelong #2.

We are ranked #5 for defence - points conceded Sydney #1, Freo #2. Melbourne #3, Lions #4

That is a decent profile after 10 games.

(What I found interesting looking at the stats is that Carlton is ranked #15 for defence with only #16 Eagles, #17 Tigers and #18 Kangas worse than them. That is not a top four profile.)

[ledge]

We are ranked #3 for offence - points scored. Sydney #1 and Geelong #2.

We are ranked #5 for defence - points conceded Sydney #1, Freo #2. Melbourne #3, Lions #4

That is a decent profile after 10 games.

(What I found interesting looking at the stats is that Carlton is ranked #15 for defence with only #16 Eagles, #17 Tigers and #18 Kangas worse than them. That is not a top four profile.)

I imagine Carlton’s numbers wouldn’t be a top 8 profile either.

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
2023: 108.7 (1,919/1,766)
*2024: 117.7 (1,666/1,415)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)
2023: averaging 78.25 per game - well over 10% above 2016 & 2021 levels - about 7% better than ?rest? average

2024: 117.7% (11.7% points above our average, 9% points above last year).

92.5 points for - about 6.5 points above Bevo era levels
78.6 points against - still a bit off 2016 & 2021 levels

[SonofScray]

We are ranked #3 for offence - points scored. Sydney #1 and Geelong #2.

We are ranked #5 for defence - points conceded Sydney #1, Freo #2. Melbourne #3, Lions #4

That is a decent profile after 10 games.

(What I found interesting looking at the stats is that Carlton is ranked #15 for defence with only #16 Eagles, #17 Tigers and #18 Kangas worse than them. That is not a top four profile.)
That reads like contender stats to me.

Just have to make it now. My Ladder predictor update has us finishing 7th now.

[angelopetraglia]

That reads like contender stats to me.

Just have to make it now. My Ladder predictor update has us finishing 7th now.

How many more wins are you giving us?

[SonofScray]

How many more wins are you giving us?

3, if I recall what I plugged in correctly.

I think we roll Sydney and drop One of Nth, Melb or Adelaide, inexplicably.

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
2023: 108.7 (1,919/1,766)
*2024: 122.4 (1,863/1,522)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)

2024: 122.4% (16.4% points above our average, 13.7% points above last year).

93.2 points for - about 7.2 points above Bevo era levels
76.1 points against - only a goal a game above 2016 & 2021 levels

Gross numbers:

For: Just 71 points of being the highest scoring team in the comp. If we were more accurate at kicking for goal, we would be the highest scoring team this year.

Against: We are going to be around 50 points off being the best defensive team (Freo ahead but play today). I?d suggest a Barrass type wouldn?t leak some of the easier goals our third talls can give up. Get a guy like him, and I?d say we become the stingiest team if the mids keep the pressure up.


Take away: Scoring more than a goal more than the Bevo era average per game, and conceding just a goal a game more than the 2016 & 2021 sides. An ominous sign considering we could get Johnno down every week from now on to try to straighten us up for the rest of the year and Lobb has improved our defence. Every chance these data points marry up with 2016 & 2021…

[comrade]

The form over the last 4 weeks eclipses anything the 2021 side did in terms of overall sustained performance. It?s also better than anything we did in 2016 outside of that finals series from heaven.

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
2023: 108.7 (1,919/1,766)
*2024: 123.8 (2,073/1,675)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)

2024: 123.8% (17.8% points above our average, 15.1% points above last year).

94.2 points for - about 8.2 points above Bevo era levels
76.1 points against - only a goal a game above 2016 & 2021 levels

Gross numbers:

For: Just 48 points of being the highest scoring team in the comp (Swans). If we were more accurate at kicking for goal, we would be the highest scoring team this year.

Against: 7 points off being the best defensive team (Freo). I?d suggest a Barrass type wouldn?t leak some of the easier goals our third talls can give up. Get a guy like him, and I?d say we become the stingiest team if the mids keep the pressure up.


Take away: Scoring nearly a 1.5 goals a game more than the Bevo era average per game, and conceding just a goal a game more than the 2016 & 2021 sides.

[bulldogtragic]

Our highest percentage in the Bevo era with 2016 & 2021.

[ledge]

Can’t go claiming Bevo is a defensive coach with these stats, he is all about scoring high.
We have had two 90 odd point wins this year and a few around 9 goals . Think we only got belted three times where were never in the game.
We aren’t a small win, lose big side we were known for before Bevo.