Pick 4 - what's the right price?

[jazzadogs]

I think this deserves it's own thread. Bulldogtragic has outlined plenty of scenarios around pick 4, but with the news yesterday that our offer will include 10, 17/Brisbane's 1st AND our future first which could be anywhere from 3 to 18...what do you think is the correct price for pick 4?

Do you want pick 4 (+ Croft, because I don't think we do the trade if Croft isn't coming)?

What value do you need coming back if the future first is involved, for you to see the trade as win-win?

[Go_Dogs]

I wouldn’t want to trade next years first out to get what will be pick 6 in this draft noting the players we probably most need in that very early range will be gone.

Our first and Brisbane’s, sure.

[jazzadogs]

I wouldn’t want to trade next years first out to get what will be pick 6 in this draft noting the players we probably most need in that very early range will be gone.

Our first and Brisbane’s, sure.

What about if someone like Elijah Hollands came back as well?

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Don't want to be trading next year's 1st. Even if that involves someone like Hollands. 10 and 17 (which most likely becomes 10 and 119 after all the draft tampering) is enough.

I'm running out of steam on this one. The compromising of the draft is just killing my interest in the draft as a whole. There won't be much left to enjoy once the AFEL is done with their shenanigans.

[Stevo]

What about if someone like Elijah Hollands came back as well?
I could live with that. Not ideal but if it means we bring in a few good players we should consider it.

[Grantysghost]

Would have to be a player that would instantly fill a void.

If it was 10/17/f1 out
4 and Ainsworth in that's about right to me.

Problem is, we seem the more desperate party so GC to quote George have all the hand.
We have no hand! I realise they need picks for Walters so hopefully we don't get shafted.

[Grantysghost]

What about if someone like Elijah Hollands came back as well?

Yep that's about right

[lemmon]

What about if someone like Elijah Hollands came back as well?

It's still a no for me. Hollands might be an AFL player (we haven't seen it yet), but I think Power needs to be incredibly impartial and work from the idea that we could be finishing bottom 4 next year.

I think that future first has to be off the table.

[bornadog]

It's still a no for me. Hollands might be an AFL player (we haven't seen it yet), but I think Power needs to be incredibly impartial and work from the idea that we could be finishing bottom 4 next year.

I think that future first has to be off the table.

totally agree Lemmon

[jazzadogs]

It's still a no for me. Hollands might be an AFL player (we haven't seen it yet), but I think Power needs to be incredibly impartial and work from the idea that we could be finishing bottom 4 next year.

I think that future first has to be off the table.

Fwiw I agree. But Jon Ralph seems pretty confident that this is our offer and there is no way we can give up 3x picks with nothing coming back.

So allowing for the fact that none of us WANT to give away the F1, what would we need to get back to stop you burning down Sam Powers office?

[Grantysghost]

Fwiw I agree. But Jon Ralph seems pretty confident that this is our offer and there is no way we can give up 3x picks with nothing coming back.

So allowing for the fact that none of us WANT to give away the F1, what would we need to get back to stop you burning down Sam Powers office?

Yeah I don't think any of us want to use that future first.
The tea leaves are saying they are, so to the OP I'd want a player back we could use immediately.

[Mofra]

I'm thinking a little laterally - pick 10 and pick 17 for Geelong's pick 8 and a future pick (or two).
Gives us pick 10 or 11 after bids & compo, and the opportunity to trade back into this draft if a plyer we like is available on night 2. That's a Wilson/Windsor/Leake - all fantastic additions to our list.

The cost of pick 4 just seems too high, especially if North get pick 11 as a PP to add to any potential package with pick 14 to Gold Coast. We'd be adding a high future pick to any potential deal.

[Axe Man]

Yeah I don't think any of us want to use that future first.
The tea leaves are saying they are, so to the OP I'd want a player back we could use immediately.

Fine, Rowell or Noah Anderson then. ;)

[Grantysghost]

Fine, Rowell or Noah Anderson then. ;)

Anyone else like Ainsworth? Small forward, tough, skilled...
Not sure he's a crumber persay but I really rate his output.

[DOG GOD]

10 and 17 for 4, or forget it.

[jazzadogs]

10 and 17 for 4, or forget it.

Do you then just let 17 (or possibly even 10!) get swallowed up by a Croft bid? If we don't get pick 4, we will have to be pretty creative...

[GVGjr]

Do you then just let 17 (or possibly even 10!) get swallowed up by a Croft bid? If we don't get pick 4, we will have to be pretty creative...

It's an interesting decision.

10 moves to pick 14 so if a bid comes in for Croft as early as 10 or 11 or 12 then matching with pick 14 covers that and we get Croft.
We also have another pick in the 1st round and one late in the 2nd.

We don't get maximum value for the discount but we do get a long term key position prospect.

If Croft goes later we can use pick 17 that moves to 21 to cover that pick as well.

Moving up to 4 to put us in the mix for McKercher or Watson would be a strong position but the default option isn't that bad to me.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

If we need to throw in a F1 on top of pick 10 and 17, would Gold Coast be inclined to throw back their 2nd next year, and maybe some late picks either this or next year for points if they'renot going to use them?

[lemmon]

If we need to throw in a F1 on top of pick 10 and 17, would Gold Coast be inclined to throw back their 2nd next year, and maybe some late picks either this or next year for points if they'renot going to use them?

I don't think that's enough. Worst-case scenario and we've swapped pick 4-8 for 25-30. I think Gold Coast should rise up the ladder next year with Hardwick and we have to be realistic - on this year's evidence, we could sink further down the ladder.

I agree that we'd have to look at a good player as part of the deal - I don't watch much of the Suns but I think Ainsworth is a good shout. Would Will Powell be around the mark? Or Mac Andrew hasn't really seemed to settle up there either?

[jazzadogs]

If we need to throw in a F1 on top of pick 10 and 17, would Gold Coast be inclined to throw back their 2nd next year, and maybe some late picks either this or next year for points if they'renot going to use them?

I wonder if we got their f2, then look at some live trading during this year to re enter the draft once the Croft bid is done.

So for example we get pick 4(6), Croft and then trade in to 20-something. We do need an injection of quality youth this year imo.

I still don't love it, as 10+17+f1 doesn't equal 4 + 20 something in my eyes...

[FrediKanoute]

I get the points values etc, but the problem is that points values don't necessarily equate to what the end player is. Bontempeli was pick 4. If we knew that pick 4 this year was Bontempelli v2. we would gladly toss in the F1 (and the F2, F3).

The thing is pick 4 has a much better chance of the player being a Bont/Naughts/Smith than say a McLean/Dale/Daniel

[Topdog]

I get the points values etc, but the problem is that points values don't necessarily equate to what the end player is. Bontempeli was pick 4. If we knew that pick 4 this year was Bontempelli v2. we would gladly toss in the F1 (and the F2, F3).

The thing is pick 4 has a much better chance of the player being a Bont/Naughts/Smith than say a McLean/Dale/Daniel

The other part of the equation is that pick 4 isnt actually going to land us the 4th pick in the draft.

[GVGjr]

The other part of the equation is that pick 4 isnt actually going to land us the 4th pick in the draft.

Pick 4 might move to pick 5 but it comes down to how we rate players and what is realistic.

Reid, Curtin, Walter and Duursma look like the early pick scenario with only a slight chance that Duursma slides.
We are probably keen to get Watson with McKercher our default selection if we can land pick 4.

The problem is our 2 first rounders won't be sufficient in a draft loaded with academy players that will receive bids and we will to use a future 1st rounder in some form to achieve that.

[Bulldog4life]

SEN 1116
@1116sen
?
1m
"There's a clear front-runner now, and it's the Western Bulldogs."

- Tom Morris on the race for Gold Coast's Pick 4

[Mofra]

I get the points values etc, but the problem is that points values don't necessarily equate to what the end player is. Bontempeli was pick 4. If we knew that pick 4 this year was Bontempelli v2. we would gladly toss in the F1 (and the F2, F3).

The thing is pick 4 has a much better chance of the player being a Bont/Naughts/Smith than say a McLean/Dale/Daniel
This year, pick 4 may not be the midfielder we have said we're after.
It slides back to pick 6 and it's perhaps in Sanders' range. Unless we take a hail mary on a late bolter like Edwards

[Grantysghost]

SEN 1116
@1116sen
?
1m
"There's a clear front-runner now, and it's the Western Bulldogs."

- Tom Morris on the race for Gold Coast's Pick 4

Thanks B4L this has me concerned in a way knowing some of the other teams' hand is better than ours this year.
Yikes. Future first might be on the table as speculated.

[Bulldog4life]

Thanks B4L this has me concerned in a way knowing some of the other teams' hand is better than ours this year.
Yikes. Future first might be on the table as speculated.

Personally I hope not Gg but won't judge until I see the full machinations.

[Grantysghost]

Personally I hope not Gg but won't judge until I see the full machinations.

Wait, you're not supposed to be so sensible you're supposed to panic like the rest of us xD

Wise words mate.

[Bulldog4life]

Gold Coast’s pick 4

“There’s a clear front-runner now and it’s the Western Bulldogs. They’ve got picks 10, 17 and 36, which gives the Gold Coast Suns what they want.

“This doesn’t mean that Melbourne or Adelaide or any other club is completely out of it, but I do think it is the Dogs’ to lose now and I think there’s an acknowledgement from the Suns that the Dogs are the frontrunners, too.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/09/23/tom-morris-update-on-all-the-big-afl-trade-period-names/


No talk of our first pick next year.

[kruder]

In regards to North Melbourne's assistance package, Morris stated that Laura Kane is recommending to commission that they get a late first round selection in 23 and 24 and also a second round selection in 24 in which they can use to trade as they like.

North have asked for Pick 3 but Hodge was speculating that if they get the picks above you can lock in a pick 3 compensation for Mckay.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

In regards to North Melbourne compensation Morris stated that Laura Kane is recommending to commission that they get a late first round selection in 23 and 24 and also a second round selection in 24 in which they can use to trade as they like.

North have asked for Pick 3 but Hodge was speculating that if they get the picks above you can lock in a pick 3 compensation for Mckay.

Who's Laura Kane?

End of first round comp this year and next year? Jeez we may as well blow the list up asap. The AFEL will hand us picks to get us rebuilt fast enough.

And the comment from Hodge is yet another example of how normalised discussing draft tampering is. It's nuts. No integrity in this league.

[Grantysghost]

Who's Laura Kane?

End of first round comp this year and next year? Jeez we may as well blow the list up asap. The AFEL will hand us picks to get us rebuilt fast enough.

Head of footy (General manager footy ops)

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Head of footy (General manager footy ops)

Thanks. End of first round is nowhere near pick 11 so hopefully that won't happen.

[GVGjr]

I don't mind them getting some help because their ongoing poor performances creates problems but the end of first round should be as good as it gets.

[kruder]

Who's Laura Kane?

End of first round comp this year and next year? Jeez we may as well blow the list up asap. The AFEL will hand us picks to get us rebuilt fast enough.

And the comment from Hodge is yet another example of how normalised discussing draft tampering is. It's nuts. No integrity in this league.

Yep so a three pick assistance package plus potentially pick 3 for McKay.

[Topdog]

I don't mind them getting some help because their ongoing poor performances creates problems but the end of first round should be as good as it gets.

I mind, absolutely sick of the AFL coming in and giving handouts to clubs for their on-field ineptness.

Surprised they haven't given Essendon automatic entry into the finals each year so they can break that 7000 day old curse.

[bulldogtragic]

Thanks. End of first round is nowhere near pick 11 so hopefully that won't happen.

Even at end of first they have 2, 3, 15 & 20. Then if there?s no caveats let them do say the 11 & 18-19 from us to GCS for their 15 & 20 and something else (F3 or swap of F2s etc). Now they?re at 2, 3, 11 & 18-19. Offer 18-19 and 2 for Pick 1. WCE then have the last pick in round 1 and the first pick in round 2. Great position and their boy Curtin.

1, 3 & 11. If North on top of their other high picks can?t start turning it around they never will and at some point if the manage themselves into the ground then relocate them.

[Grantysghost]

I mind, absolutely sick of the AFL coming in and giving handouts to clubs for their on-field ineptness.

Surprised they haven't given Essendon automatic entry into the finals each year so they can break that 7000 day old curse.

I agree, and I feel like North are coming good naturally.
Although losing Mckay hurts, and their spine is looking thin.
I guess I see the argument that we can't have teams languishing like they are, especially with a new club coming into the competition soon.
Melbourne were the same, they're basically the AFLs third club and I dare say (albeit at our expense) the competition is far stronger now with the Demons being a stable competitive entity.
So give them assistance, however not at the expense of others.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I can't understand how a pick next year can even be contemplated. They could rise up the ladder for all we know.

Gifting draft picks sends the wrong message to clubs.

[jazzadogs]

So North have got end of first this year, and two next year.

Given gold coast need points for this year, my feeling is that the 2024 bonus picks won't interest them. Roos would need to shift them to another team for 2023 picks, then bundle the 2023 picks together for the Suns.

I think we're still in the box seat 10, 18 and a swap of later picks (noting that we also need to keep 2023 points for Croft).

[bulldogtragic]

Ralphy:

Dogs to outbid the competition (especially North) are offering 10, 17 & F1 for Pick 4 (5) and F3.

[GVGjr]

Ralphy:

Dogs to outbid the competition (especially North) are offering 10, 17 & F1 for Pick 4 (5) and F3.

I wonder which player we are chips in for? I suspect it's Watson.

[Grantysghost]

I wonder which player we are chips in for? I suspect it's Watson.

The wiz. Best player I've seen for a long while in an area of need.

[chef]

Ralphy:

Dogs to outbid the competition (especially North) are offering 10, 17 & F1 for Pick 4 (5) and F3.

What a bunch of idiots. Who ever signs off on this should be sacked.

[bulldogtragic]

I wonder which player we are chips in for? I suspect it's Watson.

There’s chips in. Then crazy. I think it’s crazy.

[Grantysghost]

Ralphy:

Dogs to outbid the competition (especially North) are offering 10, 17 & F1 for Pick 4 (5) and F3.

This is close to insanity. Surely Ralphy is on the cheech and chongs.

[bulldogtragic]

This is close to insanity. Surely Ralphy is on the cheech and chongs.

If we really want the Pick 5. That’s the cost.

It’s insanity.

[mjp]

This is close to insanity. Surely Ralphy is on the cheech and chongs.

Something certainly seems to be 'up'...but who knows exactly where the truth lies.

I do feel like we ('Dogs supporters) are being 'tweaked' in the media right now:

1/. All this talk about pick 4 and what we'll be giving up.
2/. Bailey Smith to Geelong
3/. Naughton to West Coast.
4/. English to West Coast.
5/. Every assistant coach in the world to any club but ours.

It just feels like death by 1000 cuts.

I KNOW (of course I know) that 99% of what is being spoken about is no more than fanciful speculation, but could there maybe be just a little bit of fanciful speculation in OUR FAVOUR??

I mean...please, chuck us a bone!

[Grantysghost]

If we really want the Pick 5. That’s the cost.

It’s insanity.

Watson is great, but seriously he's Caleb Mark duex.

Power has the runs on the board I'm thinking Ralph is way off.

[Grantysghost]

Something certainly seems to be 'up'...but who knows exactly where the truth lies.

I do feel like we ('Dogs supporters) are being 'tweaked' in the media right now:

1/. All this talk about pick 4 and what we'll be giving up.
2/. Bailey Smith to Geelong
3/. Naughton to West Coast.
4/. English to West Coast.
5/. Every assistant coach in the world to any club but ours.

It just feels like death by 1000 cuts.

I KNOW (of course I know) that 99% of what is being spoken about is no more than fanciful speculation, but could there maybe be just a little bit of fanciful speculation in OUR FAVOUR??

I mean...please, chuck us a bone!

It feels like they've decided it's more click profitable to make us unstable and insane than competent.

[Grantysghost]

What a bunch of idiots. Who ever signs off on this should be sacked.

It's like 20 macaroons for one florentine and a future Anzac biscuit!

[EasternWest]

It's like 20 macaroons for one florentine and a future Anzac biscuit!

Absolutely triggered

[chef]

It's like 20 macaroons for one florentine and a future Anzac biscuit!

Surely the Macaroon would be pick 4

[Grantysghost]

Surely the Macaroon would be pick 4

It's a swap for Harley Reid for mine.

[SquirrelGrip]

It's like 20 macaroons for one florentine and a future Anzac biscuit!

I am quite partial to a Florentine.

[Grantysghost]

I am quite partial to a Florentine.

There's a place in Kyneton, not only does the best coffee, it also has amazing Florentines.

https://www.monsieurpierre.com.au/

[bornadog]

There's a place in Kyneton, not only does the best coffee, it also has amazing Florentines.

https://www.monsieurpierre.com.au/

I have been there many times - very nice.

[Mofra]

I'm really really really keen to keep our F1 pick. Under almost any circumstance.
Watson has spent a fair chunk of this year as a utility rather than a pure small forward, and I love McKercher but don't think he slides to pick 4 (6 after bid on Walter & North compo).

Any kid left at pick 6 is not worth 3 x first round picks. That's Jeremy Cameron/Chris Judd at the trade table currency,

[Grantysghost]

I'm really really really keen to keep our F1 pick. Under almost any circumstance.
Watson has spent a fair chunk of this year as a utility rather than a pure small forward, and I love McKercher but don't think he slides to pick 4 (6 after bid on Walter & North compo).

Any kid left at pick 6 is not worth 3 x first round picks. That's Jeremy Cameron/Chris Judd at the trade table currency,

Agree - we just can't trade our future first.

[MrMahatma]

Reckon that's the draft pick exchange and what's been left out (or not leaked yet) is a player coming back to us also.

[josie]

There's a place in Kyneton, not only does the best coffee, it also has amazing Florentines.

https://www.monsieurpierre.com.au/

Gaffneys make good savoury and sweet pies & nice Xmas foods too. Old fashioned style country bakery. Must try the florentines at monsieur Pierre’s though. I’m more of a florentine than macaroon person.

Hey GG - is the chocolate on their florentines real chocolate, and is it dark or milk? Thanks in advance.

[G-Mo77]

Reckon that's the draft pick exchange and what's been left out (or not leaked yet) is a player coming back to us also.

It/he would want to be very, very good if we're giving up our F1. We'll be much worse in 2024 and could have a top 5 pick, most likely inside the 10. This is insanity!!

[Grantysghost]

Gaffneys make good savoury and sweet pies & nice Xmas foods too. Old fashioned style country bakery. Must try the florentines at monsieur Pierre’s though. I’m more of a florentine than macaroon person.

Hey GG - is the chocolate on their florentines real chocolate, and is it dark or milk? Thanks in advance.

Oh God... Um. It tasted good?

Sorry Josie I have no idea xD

[Mofra]

Reckon that's the draft pick exchange and what's been left out (or not leaked yet) is a player coming back to us also.
There's nobody OOC at Gold Coast I'd want as steak knifes:
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/out_of_contract_players

I'm not sure I'm keen to roll the dice on anyone Gold Coast would feasibly let go that would make our F1 pick worth it.

[jeemak]

It/he would want to be very, very good if we're giving up our F1. We'll be much worse in 2024 and could have a top 5 pick, most likely inside the 10. This is insanity!!

Why when after compensation picks our F1 will be pick 20-21?

[G-Mo77]

Why when after compensation picks our F1 will be pick 20-21?

Hope so mate. Haha.

[hujsh]

There's nobody OOC at Gold Coast I'd want as steak knifes:
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/out_of_contract_players

I'm not sure I'm keen to roll the dice on anyone Gold Coast would feasibly let go that would make our F1 pick worth it.

F1st for a F3rd is a pretty big downgrade, it'd need to be a good good player.

You'd have to think if North trade up for pick 1 that'd make it easier to trade for pick 4 and would close the door on any F1 discussion.

[Scorlibo]

It/he would want to be very, very good if we're giving up our F1. We'll be much worse in 2024 and could have a top 5 pick, most likely inside the 10. This is insanity!!

Agree it would be silly to part with our future first. Every chance it ends up being that same pick 5 that we swap for this year. So we could just be giving up our two first rounders this year for nothing.

If the deal goes through as reported I'll have no choice but to remove Sam Power from the prime real estate that is my avatar.

[jeemak]

Agree it would be silly to part with our future first. Every chance it ends up being that same pick 5 that we swap for this year. So we could just be giving up our two first rounders this year for nothing.

If the deal goes through as reported I'll have no choice but to remove Sam Power from the prime real estate that is my avatar.

That's a bit much.

[Scorlibo]

That's a bit much.

Look maybe it's harsh, Sam being a regular reader it'll cut him deep, but it's the one bit of leverage I have and by gosh will I use it.

[Grantysghost]

Look maybe it's harsh, Sam being a regular reader it'll cut him deep, but it's the one bit of leverage I have and by gosh will I use it.

Look there's no need for madness scorl..!
Think of the children...!

[jazzadogs]

"The Bulldogs are likely to soon get their hands on Gold Coast's pick 4 ��

According to The Age's Michael Gleeson, the deal would likely see the Dogs give up picks 10, 17 and their future first-rounder, for Gold Coast's pick 4, two third-rounders, and a 2024 third-rounder.

#9WWOS #AFLTrade"

This is not the right price.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

"The Bulldogs are likely to soon get their hands on Gold Coast's pick 4 ��

According to The Age's Michael Gleeson, the deal would likely see the Dogs give up picks 10, 17 and their future first-rounder, for Gold Coast's pick 4, two third-rounders, and a 2024 third-rounder.

#9WWOS #AFLTrade"

This is not the right price.

All the noise has us making some sort of move that looks like this.

It's bad and will only look worse this time next year.

This is so bloody typical of us. Geelong get pick 7 for free last years from the suns.

One year later we're paying pick 17 plus a F1 for a 6 pick upgrade. This could realistically look like pick 10, 17 plus 2024 pick 6-10 for pick 4.

[bulldogtragic]

GCS had to bend over a team eventually. Why not us?

[The Bulldogs Bite]

All the noise has us making some sort of move that looks like this.

It's bad and will only look worse this time next year.

This is so bloody typical of us. Geelong get pick 7 for free last years from the suns.

One year later we're paying pick 17 plus a F1 for a 6 pick upgrade. This could realistically look like pick 10, 17 plus 2024 pick 6-10 for pick 4.

That's what makes it worse.

[bulldogtragic]

As posted in the other thread, we will sell the deal to fans that the three thirds is equal in points to an early 20’s pick coming back.

I think we got tunnel vision.

[Rocco Jones]

OK I do not mean to be facetious or defensive of the club with the following but...those who are absolutely against the trade, are you in effectively saying you think you know better in this instance than Power? I sincerely am interested.

I think the trade looks excessive, however also open to pick 4 looking an elite prospect and 10 + 17 relatively weak. If we did this in 2014, I would have thought it looked excessive but we got Bont at 4. Nathan Freeman went 10 and Apeness 17. I know an exceptional circumstance, but we kill that part.

Again, I am very wary of the trade however I really struggle with absoluteness. If Power, Bevo, Grant et al know less than us, we are basically ****ed.

[Testekill]

Whatever the price is, what we're getting back certainly isn't worth it.

[Rocco Jones]

Whatever the price is, what we're getting back certainly isn't worth it.

I like your contributions so interested in response to this. If 100% view this as wrong, do you think Power and our brains trust involved in this need to go?

[bulldogtragic]

OK I do not mean to be facetious or defensive of the club with the following but...those who are absolutely against the trade, are you in effectively saying you think you know better in this instance than Power? I sincerely am interested.

I think the trade looks excessive, however also open to pick 4 looking an elite prospect and 10 + 17 relatively weak. If we did this in 2014, I would have thought it looked excessive but we got Bont at 4. Nathan Freeman went 10 and Apeness 17. I know an exceptional circumstance, but we kill that part.

Again, I am very wary of the trade however I really struggle with absoluteness. If Power, Bevo, Grant et al know less than us, we are basically ****ed.

I don’t think it’s about knowing better. You can agree or disagree with the price we will pay. I’m not in favour of such a high price.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

OK I do not mean to be facetious or defensive of the club with the following but...those who are absolutely against the trade, are you in effectively saying you think you know better in this instance than Power? I sincerely am interested.

I think the trade looks excessive, however also open to pick 4 looking an elite prospect and 10 + 17 relatively weak. If we did this in 2014, I would have thought it looked excessive but we got Bont at 4. Nathan Freeman went 10 and Apeness 17. I know an exceptional circumstance, but we kill that part.

Again, I am very wary of the trade however I really struggle with absoluteness. If Power, Bevo, Grant et al know less than us, we are basically ****ed.

It's the F1 and the real possibility it could be a top 10 pick that everyone is against.

We're also selling all that for a non midfielder.

Of course I don't think I know more than Power. I'd prefer we go for Geelongs pick 7 if it means we only give up 10 and 17. Otherwise hold the picks and hope Croft is bid on after our first live pick. If he is, we pass.

[hujsh]

OK I do not mean to be facetious or defensive of the club with the following but...those who are absolutely against the trade, are you in effectively saying you think you know better in this instance than Power? I sincerely am interested.

I think the trade looks excessive, however also open to pick 4 looking an elite prospect and 10 + 17 relatively weak. If we did this in 2014, I would have thought it looked excessive but we got Bont at 4. Nathan Freeman went 10 and Apeness 17. I know an exceptional circumstance, but we kill that part.

Again, I am very wary of the trade however I really struggle with absoluteness. If Power, Bevo, Grant et al know less than us, we are basically ****ed.

The future first is the hard to swallow part. If it was a future second I wouldn't be against it but if we play next year the way we finished this year pick 4-7 could well be what we're trading here. The club is gambling super hard on shooting up the ladder but they've expected us to be top 4 the last 2 years and failed badly so I don't trust their judgement TBH. Maybe Sam has been told to treat future picks as if we finish top 6. If so it explains why he's made such a bad deal.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

We would need to understand the overall list strategy to form a better opinion.

Every chance we have made a calculated decision to get X amount of elite talent into the club. The only way to do this is with early picks (typically).

As we've seen with Marra/Darcy, the by-product of doing that is depth. It's always easier to address the latter than the former.

Perhaps we see next year as the start of being able to improve our depth through the draft.

[bulldogtragic]

The future first is the hard to swallow part. If it was a future second I wouldn't be against it but if we play next year the way we finished this year pick 4-7 could well be what we're trading here. The club is gambling super hard on shooting up the ladder but they've expected us to be top 4 the last 2 years and failed badly so I don't trust their judgement TBH. Maybe Sam has been told to treat future picks as if we finish top 6. If so it explains why he's made such a bad deal.

Gambling is it in a nutshell. Our firm line is not giving me the confidence to gamble with our most valuable asset of 2024. (Currently)

[Rocco Jones]

Sorry I am truly not intending to have a go. Maybe Power and co. are inept.

My thing is fans seemingly believe this is objectively incorrect. How are our feels with keeping Power and co. if they are making objectively incorrect calls?

[lemmon]

OK I do not mean to be facetious or defensive of the club with the following but...those who are absolutely against the trade, are you in effectively saying you think you know better in this instance than Power? I sincerely am interested.


How do you feel about questioning coaching decisions? Bevo would have more footy knowledge in his little finger than I'd accrue in a lifetime but I'm still pretty confident playing JOD forward wasn't in anyone's best interests.

I don't think there's any problem with fans having opinions about decisions being made by the club, simply because we aren't the employed experts.

[Rocco Jones]

How do you feel about questioning coaching decisions? Bevo would have more footy knowledge in his little finger than I'd accrue in a lifetime but I'm still pretty confident playing JOD forward wasn't in anyone's best interests.

I don't think there's any problem with fans having opinions about decisions being made by the club, simply because we aren't the employed experts.

Totally get questioning. I am questioning Bevo and this trade as well. My thing is absoluteness and certainty in us being wrong.

And it's not a defence. It's a maybe if they are so clearly bad, we need to make a lot of sackings.

[hujsh]

Sorry I am truly not intending to have a go. Maybe Power and co. are inept.

My thing is fans seemingly believe this is objectively incorrect. How are our feels with keeping Power and co. if they are making objectively incorrect calls?

Ultimately every deal had to go through Grant (right?) Power's job is to negotiate the best deal he can but Grant is the one who needs to say 'appreciate your work but we need to walk away from this and try something else'. Much as I love Grant he's the one that needs to go if anyone. The way the off field stuff has been run the last few years I think all signs point to him being the weakest link.

[Rocco Jones]

All the noise has us making some sort of move that looks like this.

It's bad and will only look worse this time next year.

This is so bloody typical of us. Geelong get pick 7 for free last years from the suns.

One year later we're paying pick 17 plus a F1 for a 6 pick upgrade. This could realistically look like pick 10, 17 plus 2024 pick 6-10 for pick 4.


GCS had to bend over a team eventually. Why not us?

Not picking on these two. Maybe they are right.

This isn't questioning. This is we are clearly wrong. If I was this absolute, I would want Power and co. gone. And maybe they should be.

[Topdog]

Perhaps we see next year as the start of being able to improve our depth through the draft.

Going to be hard to add depth by giving away our 1st rounder next season.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Going to be hard to add depth by giving away our 1st rounder next season.

Assumption would be we might have multiple R2 / R3 picks, which we haven't had for a while.

[Topdog]

Not picking on these two. Maybe they are right.

This isn't questioning. This is we are clearly wrong. If I was this absolute, I would want Power and co. gone. And maybe they should be.

You can only talk about these things with the information you have at hand. Obviously we dont know everything and maybe our recruiters are saying get into the top 5 and we have a generational talent coming through.

On face value this looks a very poor trade, I havent looked into the history but this seems like an unprecedented trade.

[bulldogtragic]

The future first is the hard to swallow part. If it was a future second I wouldn't be against it but if we play next year the way we finished this year pick 4-7 could well be what we're trading here. The club is gambling super hard on shooting up the ladder but they've expected us to be top 4 the last 2 years and failed badly so I don't trust their judgement TBH. Maybe Sam has been told to treat future picks as if we finish top 6. If so it explains why he's made such a bad deal.

Gambling is it in a nutshell. Our firm line is not giving me the confidence to gamble with our most valuable asset of 2024. (Currently)

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Not picking on these two. Maybe they are right.

This isn't questioning. This is we are clearly wrong. If I was this absolute, I would want Power and co. gone. And maybe they should be.

To be fair to Power, I think this reflects on Grant and co more than anyone else and I've been leaning towards him going even before this trade. If Power has been tasked with getting a top 5 pick, this may well be the only deal that'll get it done. Who's decision is it to say if it's too high a price or not?

[Rocco Jones]

I think it looks a bad deal but very open to not having all the information. Perhaps it is a brave and super clever one.

Those who believe it is an egregiously bad decision and clear mistake, do you want Power and/or Grant gone? If I was absolute on this, I'd be wanting changes to the set up asap.

[hujsh]

I think it looks a bad deal but very open to not having all the information. Perhaps it is a brave and super clever one.

Those who believe it is an egregiously bad decision and clear mistake, do you want Power and/or Grant gone? If I was absolute on this, I'd be wanting changes to the set up asap.

I'll wait to see the explanation from the club but at the end of the draft period if the explanation doesn't hold up and/or we don't get who we want (Watson or McKercher right?) then it's time for Grant to move on IMO.

[G-Mo77]

I think it looks a bad deal but very open to not having all the information. Perhaps it is a brave and super clever one.

Those who believe it is an egregiously bad decision and clear mistake, do you want Power and/or Grant gone? If I was absolute on this, I'd be wanting changes to the set up asap.

It's gambling. There is nothing savvy or clever here, they are gambling our future. They need to be walked out now before this is official.

[bulldogtragic]

I'll wait to see the explanation from the club but at the end of the draft period if the explanation doesn't hold up and/or we don't get who we want (Watson or McKercher right?) then it's time for Grant to move on IMO.

Time for a refresh in any event. Like Rohan Smith, eventually everyone finishes at the club. I’d like Grant to retire after the draft irrespective.

[The Pie Man]

Wouldn’t be surprised if we trade into next years first round - top 5 picks are gold, I’m comfortable enough with this

[jazzadogs]

Yeh it doesn't really matter to me what the plan is for 2024 - if we trade Baz and English and get three new first rounders, or whatever else. If that happened, we should be having those picks PLUS our future first which we are giving up needlessly.

[bulldogtragic]

The club, Bevo in particular, says we don’t have depth. So we trade out three first rounders/kids for top end depth.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Anyone know how compromised next year's draft could be? This year's would have to be one of the worst on record with the North handouts and now the AFELs incompetence in not adjusting free agency compo in line with the new CBA.

This year's draft is probably a good one to get out of.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Are we even sure Croft will nominate us? Is he waiting to get an assurance from us that will hinge on the picks being traded?

Wouldn’t it be amazing if we did all this and he suddenly decided against coming.

[Rocco Jones]

It's gambling. There is nothing savvy or clever here, they are gambling our future. They need to be walked out now before this is official.

Yeah, this is the response I was looking for. So you are so sure it is wrong, not so much that you know better, but perhaps that you know they should be gone? I am not one for being so absolute but that's me.

[Rocco Jones]

If we believe 4 looks elite and 10 and 17 relatively meh, should we have just accepted our hand if Suns said not enough? Going through possibilities with those who seem certain if it's wrong.

[G-Mo77]

Yeah, this is the response I was looking for. So you are so sure it is wrong, not so much that you know better, but perhaps that you know they should be gone? I am not one for being so absolute but that's me.

It's only a good decision if we play out of our skins next season. Do you honestly expect us to make finals or go deep into them in 2024? They don't know that either. They're gambling.

[bulldogtragic]

Are we even sure Croft will nominate us? Is he waiting to get an assurance from us that will hinge on the picks being traded?

Wouldn’t it be amazing if we did all this and he suddenly decided against coming.

I think we can infer he’s coming. We in part traded for points as we’ve said we won’t use those picks anyway. He’s coming.

[G-Mo77]

I think we can infer he’s coming. We in part traded for points as we’ve said we won’t use those picks anyway. He’s coming.

Those 3rds will be gone for Coffield/Harmes. Should this happen of course.

[josie]

Yeh it doesn't really matter to me what the plan is for 2024 - if we trade Baz and English and get three new first rounders, or whatever else. If that happened, we should be having those picks PLUS our future first which we are giving up needlessly.

I suppose it?s gambling but if we are pretty sure one or both Smith and English are going after this year (presumably more likely with a poor year) then I?m a tiny bit eased about giving up our future first. If we pick up a game changer - and I do trust our club regarding high draft picks seeing as we have had a very good record on that front - we?ll all be lauding Grant and Power etc. Let?s pray that?s the case.

Plus if we have a good year then presumably Smith & English if they leave will be worth more.

[Topdog]

If we believe 4 looks elite and 10 and 17 relatively meh, should we have just accepted our hand if Suns said not enough? Going through possibilities with those who seem certain if it's wrong.

Its a big gamble, F1 next year good be even more elite. If we think 10 and 17 are meh we also could trade them out for depth.

[bulldogtragic]

Those 3rds will be gone for Coffield/Harmes. Should this happen of course.

Maybe a F3. But we need the points this year. I’ve been trying to work out how we’d get the points, and this is how.

[hujsh]

If we believe 4 looks elite and 10 and 17 relatively meh, should we have just accepted our hand if Suns said not enough? Going through possibilities with those who seem certain if it's wrong.

If they say not eough that's when you look at pick swaps and adding in future seconds/thirds. You don't add a third first rounder that could genuinely be just about anywhere from 4-15.

It's strange we are always SO conservative with our first round picks. We have a history of ruling them out of all trades and always trying to add top end talent to the list. It feels like suddenly we just aren't valuing it for next year for some reason OR we think we're getting the next coming of Bont (or a player worth 3 first round picks)

[Rocco Jones]

Its a big gamble, F1 next year good be even more elite. If we think 10 and 17 are meh we also could trade them out for depth.

You're one of many here I respect. Love this forum.

So laying it out here with those so strongly against it.

1/ how open are you to it possibly being a clever gamble? (we don't have all the info etc)

2/ if answer to Q1 is non-existent to low, do you want Power and/or Grant gone?

[bulldogsthru&thru]

If we believe 4 looks elite and 10 and 17 relatively meh, should we have just accepted our hand if Suns said not enough? Going through possibilities with those who seem certain if it's wrong.

Yeah the opportunity cost to doing the suns trade is pick 10 and 17 and F1. There's probably no world where we can get pick 4 for 10 and 17 (plus a future 2nd or 3rd or whatever minimal change noone will care about).

So it's either:
Pick 4 and Croft minus 2024 R1 OR
Pick 10, 17 AND 2024 R1.

I'm still going the 2nd option. Watson isn't worth this. He's a tiny forward not too dissimilar to Weightman.

[The Adelaide Connection]

I think we can infer he’s coming. We in part traded for points as we’ve said we won’t use those picks anyway. He’s coming.

You would think so. So why the stalling of the announcement? Is it about not showing our hand or something?

I am sure there must be a reason, but it feels like a lukewarm response to wanting to come from the outside looking in. Normally you’d expect him to nominate and be doing press about how excited he is at the proposition of coming.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I suppose it?s gambling but if we are pretty sure one or both Smith and English are going after this year (presumably more likely with a poor year) then I?m a tiny bit eased about giving up our future first, plus if it?s a middling or lousy year it will be a lower pick. If we pick up a game changer - and I do trust our club regarding high draft picks seeing as we have had a very good record on that front - we?ll all be lauding Grant and Power etc. Let?s pray that?s the case.

Plus if we have a good year then presumably Smith & English if they leave will be worth more.

What if next year's 1st rounder turns out a star?

This is where trading picks becomes extremely difficult to assess value. Are we trading for a Paddy Dow this year at the expense of a Petrcca or Bont next year? Or could it be the other way around? Impossible to know. It seems pretty clear we're after Watson who I don't believe is going to be a game changer for us.

[hujsh]

Yeah the opportunity cost to doing the suns trade is pick 10 and 17 and F1. There's probably no world where we can get pick 4 for 10 and 17 (plus a future 2nd or 3rd or whatever minimal change noone will care about).

So it's either:
Pick 4 and Croft minus 2024 R1 OR
Pick 10, 17 AND 2024 R1.

I'm still going the 2nd option. Watson isn't worth this. He's a tiny forward not too dissimilar to Weightman.

There's also the possibility we end with 10 (12?), Croft and 2024 1st. Or Croft, 17 (19-21?) and 2024 1st if we went option 2.

[bulldogtragic]

You would think so. So why the stalling of the announcement? Is it about not showing our hand or something?

I am sure there must be a reason, but it feels like a lukewarm response to wanting to come from the outside looking in. Normally you’d expect him to nominate and be doing press about how excited he is at the proposition of coming.

He did that the other day and he sounded excited. We could’ve been waiting for the Pick 4 to be finalised. Or he could be looking for a longer contract (FS can negotiate that). No way we accept the deal if he’s not coming as we won’t use the picks (only their points).

[Topdog]

You're one of many here I respect. Love this forum.

So laying it out here with those so strongly against it.

1/ how open are you to it possibly being a clever gamble? (we don't have all the info etc)

2/ if answer to Q1 is non-existent to low, do you want Power and/or Grant gone?

I'm still not even sure what Grant's job is, so much like I dont comment on Assistant coaches needing to be gone I will refrain from commenting on Grant and his suitability.

I think Sam has done a good job over the years even though I think we played the Dunkley trade poorly.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

There's also the possibility we end with 10 (12?), Croft and 2024 1st. Or Croft, 17 (19-21?) and 2024 1st if we went option 2.

Yep. If we assume we bring in Croft:
Pick 4 and Croft minus 2024 R1 OR
Pick 10, Croft AND 2024 R1.

I'd be surprised if a club bid on Croft before Pick 15. But clubs seem to have it in for us with f/s or academy picks.

[hujsh]

Is it correct that there are a LOT of F/S and academy kids next year? That could potentially make things make more sense if we think any first rounder after pick 5 or so is going to get pushed way out and there are lots of opportunities to do points trades

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Is it correct that there are a LOT of F/S and academy kids next year? That could potentially make things make more sense if we think any first rounder after pick 5 or so is going to get pushed way out and there are lots of opportunities to do points trades

No idea how good any of them will be but sounds like a lot.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zerohanger.com/afl-draft-carlton-and-brisbane-father-sons-impress-in-future-stars-game-144007/amp/

If there's half a dozen or so (2 Carlton, 1 Lions, 1 suns plus who knows hiw many others) then yeah next year's first round looking bleak after about the top 5).

[hujsh]

Here it comes. Gold Coast trading pick No.4, 46, 51 and a future third-round selection for the Dogs’ picks 10, 17 and a future first-round pick.

https://twitter.com/CalTwomey/status/1711200546324156442?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembe d%7Ctwterm%5E1711200546324156442%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Here it comes. Gold Coast trading pick No.4, 46, 51 and a future third-round selection for the Dogs’ picks 10, 17 and a future first-round pick.

https://twitter.com/CalTwomey/status/1711200546324156442?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembe d%7Ctwterm%5E1711200546324156442%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=

OK.. I've been through, denial, anger and bargaining.

Now sadness and acceptance.

[bornadog]

OK.. I've been through, denial, anger and bargaining.

Now sadness and acceptance.

done deal

The Western Bulldogs have secured Gold Coast's pick 4. In exchange the Dogs gave up 10, 17, a future first and they get back 4, 46, 51 and a future third.

[The Underdog]

I don’t love it, but I’ll wait to get Adam Cooney and Kane Cornes’ opinions before I decide what I really think.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I don’t love it, but I’ll wait to get Adam Cooney and Kane Cornes’ opinions before I decide what I really think.

Twomey reckons a good deal for both clubs.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

done deal

The Western Bulldogs have secured Gold Coast's pick 4. In exchange the Dogs gave up 10, 17, a future first and they get back 4, 46, 51 and a future third.

OK I'm sad.

[Hotdog60]

It could be English has already told them he will explore his free agency at the end of his contract and we don't intend to match it and as been said they would expecting high round one compo if North is anything to go by.

[bornadog]

It could be English has already told them he will explore his free agency at the end of his contract and we don't intend to match it and as been said they would expecting high round one compo if North is anything to go by.

More likely Smith

[Mantis]

I don't like this trade.. I think we've severely over-paid.

I know nothing of Watson other than a few highlights, but if he's the target it's a lot to give up for a 170cm FP.

[Grantysghost]

I'm trying to stay rational.

On the face of it we've just made the worst deal in the history of the AFL.

[lemmon]

Looking forward to hearing an interview with Power. I'd like to hear the internal rationale behind this.

[MrMahatma]

I'm trying to stay rational.

On the face of it we've just made the worst deal in the history of the AFL.

I think draft quality and depth, of both this year and next, are context that Power would have front of mind.

I don't know the depth, talk is it's not great this year? I'd rather 1 good player than 2 OK ones.

[GVGjr]

I know we have paid a lot to secure pick 4 but this is largely in line with what Power mentioned on the Gettable podcast. I'm assuming we are chips in for Watson but who knows if we get someone like McKercher, Duursma or even Sanders when the dust settles.
We said we would be flexible with our options and we have likely done enough to secure Croft and maybe Lual on top of one of the top 4 players this year.
There is a bit more to play out here, let's hold our breath until we see the final position we take into the draft.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I think draft quality and depth, of both this year and next, are context that Power would have front of mind.

I don't know the depth, talk is it's not great this year? I'd rather 1 good player than 2 OK ones.

The general talk out there is that next year's draft has much better midfield quality.

But mjp I think opposes that view thinking it's quite weak at this stage. So who knows. Drafts are always overrated a year out. This year's was meant to be a super draft 12 months ago. Now it's basically a crap shoot after pick 6. The depth of this year's is horrible. There's talk it might end by picks 50-60.

[Scraggers]

When talking equality in this pick swap, what does the total points for both look like?

[bulldogtragic]

When talking equality in this pick swap, what does the total points for both look like?

They will be ahead by a good amount or lots.

[Topdog]

The general talk out there is that next year's draft has much better midfield quality.

But mjp I think opposes that view thinking it's quite weak at this stage. So who knows. Drafts are always overrated a year out. This year's was meant to be a super draft 12 months ago. Now it's basically a crap shoot after pick 6. The depth of this year's is horrible. There's talk it might end by picks 50-60.

Wonder how many kids were lost to the sport during the lockdowns

[Scraggers]

They will be ahead by a good amount or lots.

Do we have another future first round pick (currently) or are we banking on losing English/Smith?

[hujsh]

Do we have another future first round pick (currently) or are we banking on losing English/Smith?

Might be we think we can trade into the first round as there are a number of players likely to be bid on

[ratsmac]

I feel like we've been bent over a barrel

[ratsmac]

We better get this pick right ffs

[bulldogtragic]

Officially Pick 5 now. As good as 6 after the early Walter bid.

[LostDog]

Oh ffs, next year could be 2014 revisited the way we are going