'Hazy' Crystal Ball - You can only have ONE THING!

[mjp]

You are both LUCKY and CURSED to be the owner of a 'hazy' crystal ball.

We are about to select our first pick in the 2023 National Draft. You have a clear choice between TWO (2) players.

One player projects a 'CLEAR' image. They are reliable and dependable. They are relatively injury free. You can see them running out with the team every week and being regularly selected. You see them run through a 150-game banner...

The other player is fading in and out. You see them holding up a best and fairest...then you see their name on the FRONT page of the paper. You see a couple of REMARKABLE goals. You see them in trade rumours. You see them injured. You watch the crystal ball and the positives and the negatives are flashing back and forth...this player could be ANYTHING...or NOTHING.

Who do you choose?

Swing for the fences or take the guarantee??

[Twodogs]

The guarantee. You can plan around those guys knowing what you're going to get.

[bornadog]

Swing for the Fences - I love a player with a bit of X factor

[Scraggers]

Stringer's ‘great’ was incredible. But his average was shocking. This has turned me off the 50/50. Give me ‘good’ day-in day-out.

[hujsh]

You are both LUCKY and CURSED to be the owner of a 'hazy' crystal ball.

We are about to select our first pick in the 2023 National Draft. You have a clear choice between TWO (2) players.

One player projects a 'CLEAR' image. They are reliable and dependable. They are relatively injury free. You can see them running out with the team every week and being regularly selected. You see them run through a 150-game banner...

The other player is fading in and out. You see them holding up a best and fairest...then you see their name on the FRONT page of the paper. You see a couple of REMARKABLE goals. You see them in trade rumours. You see them injured. You watch the crystal ball and the positives and the negatives are flashing back and forth...this player could be ANYTHING...or NOTHING.

Who do you choose?

Swing for the fences or take the guarantee??
Generally speaking I guess it depends how comfortable you are with the other young players on the list? Do you have 5-6 young players that have really shown something and look like being 200 gamers at minimum. 100% go for the guy that could be amazing.

Are you an absolute basket case that has messed up your recent draft picks? Maybe take the sure thing. Put a foundation in place.

The problem with us is, I have no idea what we are and where we sit. Are we an under performing top 4 side or are we on the decline and about to comfortably miss the 8? I guess I'd go the 50/50. If I can keep the crystal ball I'd always pick the 50/50.

[bornadog]

Generally speaking I guess it depends how comfortable you are with the other young players on the list? Do you have 5-6 young players that have really shown something and look like being 200 gamers at minimum. 100% go for the guy that could be amazing.

Are you an absolute basket case that has messed up your recent draft picks? Maybe take the sure thing. Put a foundation in place.

The problem with us is, I have no idea what we are and where we sit. Are we an under performing top 4 side or are we on the decline and about to comfortably miss the 8? I guess I'd go the 50/50. If I can keep the crystal ball I'd always pick the 50/50.

What would you do us?

[hujsh]

The problem with us is, I have no idea what we are and where we sit. Are we an under performing top 4 side or are we on the decline and about to comfortably miss the 8? I guess I'd go the 50/50. If I can keep the crystal ball I'd always pick the 50/50.


What would you do us?

I time traveled to answer you

[jazzadogs]

You are both LUCKY and CURSED to be the owner of a 'hazy' crystal ball.

We are about to select our first pick in the 2023 National Draft. You have a clear choice between TWO (2) players.

One player projects a 'CLEAR' image. They are reliable and dependable. They are relatively injury free. You can see them running out with the team every week and being regularly selected. You see them run through a 150-game banner...

The other player is fading in and out. You see them holding up a best and fairest...then you see their name on the FRONT page of the paper. You see a couple of REMARKABLE goals. You see them in trade rumours. You see them injured. You watch the crystal ball and the positives and the negatives are flashing back and forth...this player could be ANYTHING...or NOTHING.

Who do you choose?

Swing for the fences or take the guarantee??

There's an easy comparison of "if you had only been able to pick one, would you have taken Stringer or Macrae?".

Stringer probably won more games off his own boot, but Macrae contributed to more wins overall.

So for me it's the safe bet, reliable option.

[GVGjr]

So in stock market speak it's a technical or fundamental trading approach. I'll stick with guaranteed returns and I'm not prepared to gamble with early picks.

[Uninformed]

Go with the cert. Reliable aint boring.

[Mofra]

9 times out of 10 I'd go for consistent.

This time around - I'm going for the X factor. Collingwood took the X factor (de Goey, Hill) to a flag while two 'dependable' players (Adams and Noble) looked on.
Tom Mitchell - dependable, he is what he is - cost 4/5ths of SFA and stepped in admirably.

[soupman]

There's an easy comparison of "if you had only been able to pick one, would you have taken Stringer or Macrae?".

Stringer probably won more games off his own boot, but Macrae contributed to more wins overall.

So for me it's the safe bet, reliable option.

To be fair the first option could easily be Bailey Williams, or Tom Cole, or Tom Jonas, or Ed Curnow.

Best case is Stringer vs Macrae, more likely case is, actually it's kind of hard to think of many mediocre guys that would have ticked the second options boxes.

The all or nothing types are typically worth it if they manage to win a B&F, I mean you probably do take the gamble on Stringer being the worst case example I can think of as an eclectic star. I mean the other ones that srping to mind are JDG, Greene, Martin, maybe Sidebottom, I'm cool with that. Bennell is probably the worse example but B&F kind of implies he managed to get his shit together on and off field more than he did in real life.

Sign me up for option 2 please.

[Dry Rot]

9 times out of 10 I'd go for consistent.

This time around - I'm going for the X factor. Collingwood took the X factor (de Goey, Hill) to a flag while two 'dependable' players (Adams and Noble) looked on.
Tom Mitchell - dependable, he is what he is - cost 4/5ths of SFA and stepped in admirably.

X factor for me too. Right now I prefer that to a second Macrae

[bornadog]

I time traveled to answer you

A guess then

[The Bulldogs Bite]

You never know what you're going to get with this group, so give me the guaranteed consistent performer - we need more of them!

[angelopetraglia]

Didn't Hawthorn pretty much take a bet each way when they went with Roughead (Guarantee) and Buddy (X-Factor but risky). I recall having this type of assement being rationale behind their choices. Guarantee #1 and then the X-Factor at #5. Also, easier to go for the X-Factor when you have already the Guarantee locked in.

(We probably did something similar in the same draft. #3 Griffen Guarantee and then X-Factor with #6 Williams.)

2014 Draft

#1 Deledio
#2 Roughead
#3 Griffen
#4 Tambling
#5 Franklin
#6 Williams
#7 Lewis
#8 Meesen
#9 Russelll
#10 Egan

[Mofra]

Didn't Hawthorn pretty much take a bet each way when they went with Roughead (Guarantee) and Buddy (X-Factor but risky). I recall having this type of assement being rationale behind their choices. Guarantee #1 and then the X-Factor at #5. Also, easier to go for the X-Factor when you have already the Guarantee locked in.

(We probably did something similar in the same draft. #3 Griffen Guarantee and then X-Factor with #6 Williams.)

2014 Draft

#1 Deledio
#2 Roughead
#3 Griffen
#4 Tambling
#5 Franklin
#6 Williams
#7 Lewis
#8 Meesen
#9 Russelll
#10 Egan
IIRC they were always going to take two talls with their 3 picks and Buddy slid after the champs.

[KT31]

Take the guarantee, we need the dependability and decent delivery into the forward line.