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Dry Rot
22-12-2023, 04:24 PM
Interesting article here about season 2023.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1070544/list-analysis-which-club-has-the-most-goalkicking-firepower

Especially tables at the end of the article.

We seem pretty mid table with our attacking.

Also interesting:

* Top ranking of Adelaide despite missing the finals

* Mediocre to poor ratings of finalists The Blues and Saints

Thoughts? And what do we need to do differently to be in say the top 4 or 6 rankings next season?

FrediKanoute
22-12-2023, 11:55 PM
What it suggests to me is that saving goals is a far more effective way to win games than scoring them. You keep the opposition to 11 or 12 goals and you will win more than you lose.

GVGjr
23-12-2023, 12:15 AM
Interesting article here about season 2023.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1070544/list-analysis-which-club-has-the-most-goalkicking-firepower

Especially tables at the end of the article.

We seem pretty mid table with our attacking.

Also interesting:

* Top ranking of Adelaide despite missing the finals

* Mediocre to poor ratings of finalists The Blues and Saints

Thoughts? And what do we need to do differently to be in say the top 4 or 6 rankings next season?

Thanks for this thought provoker.
We have the a pretty good balance with key forwards and players capable of kicking goals.
Spearheaded by the key forward tandem of Naughton and Ugle-Hagan with support from Lobb and Weightman it's got 4 players capable of kicking 30 plus goals in a season which should stack up well against most other set-ups. Getting a couple of others to keep the scoreboard ticking over is the key. We've also tended to get contributions from our midfield but if A.Jones, Clarke, Vandermeer or Daniel can chip in and provide another decent score we should be okay. If Lobb plays a bit more in the ruck then English might be able to add to the scoring options.

D Mitchell
23-12-2023, 01:07 AM
3 of the 4 try to play the same game, 4 are a high marks then toss in Bont to make it 5. 3 are selfish and don’t work hard enough when the opposition has the ball. Bont aside, none are noted for winning the ball. I don’t think the forwards integrate their game into the team game. That’s been the last 2 years. Fingers crossed.

Grantysghost
23-12-2023, 07:47 AM
What it suggests to me is that saving goals is a far more effective way to win games than scoring them. You keep the opposition to 11 or 12 goals and you will win more than you lose.

So you're saying move Naughton to defence xD

Grantysghost
23-12-2023, 10:00 AM
What it suggests to me is that saving goals is a far more effective way to win games than scoring them. You keep the opposition to 11 or 12 goals and you will win more than you lose.

Stopping goals has always been the way. The best teams have great defences usually.
I don't think we will ever reach our potential with the list until we have key defensive pillars in place and playing together regularly.
Jones unfortunately has a very limited window, Keith the same, JOD is a prospect, Buss the same, Gardner you're never sure what you get.
We've got issues down back in key positions still that haven't been addressed.
Darcy is not a defender, so to make a forward a defender because we have a defender forward would pretty much be the logical conclusion to our problem right xD
Croft could be a good prospect down back. Again though I think he's naturally a forward. But he has great closing speed so possibly a chance.

Hotdog60
23-12-2023, 10:45 AM
We need to look at our forward line and see how many set shots they had and what percentage they scored at.
It may be just a miss guided feeling but I think we leave more out there than we get and if we can tidy that up I think we have a forward line capable of destroying most if not all defenses out there.
We can't be missing shots from 20 to 30 metres out that's the killer.

Jeanette54
23-12-2023, 11:18 AM
There is no doubt our forward line has a surplus of individual talent, and we still haven't seen the best of JUH yet. However, they play like a bunch of talented individuals. Somehow, we must instill a system whereby they play as a team, and are all willing to sacrifice a bit of their own game for the benefit of the others.

So often Naughts and Jamara contest the same high ball, and Cody (as good as he is overhead) shouldn't be amongst the high-flyers in the goal square. Relying on pack marks is not a sustainable avenue to a consistent high score. And its high risk, both in terms of injury, and the probability of turning the ball over to the defence or a minor score. Sure, it looks good, but I would much rather see 'Marra out on his own taking advantage of his vertical leap accepting a pass ten yards in front of his opponent, or Cody fastening on a loose ball.

They must also work together to spread the defence, and work for each other. There is no glory in being the one who takes their opponent to the dead pocket, but it's an essential part of team forward craft.

They have one massive advantage, in that any of Naughts, Jamara, Cody and Lobb as individuals are capable of multiple goals as individuals, but the sum of goals as individuals will always be less than that if they work as a forward team.

My two bobs worth.

westbulldog
23-12-2023, 11:37 AM
Naughton's accuracy needs to improve.
Weightman to stop flying for speccies.
Lobb more in the ruck and English more forward.
Do not appoint McNeil the goalkicking coach'

Dazza
23-12-2023, 12:21 PM
I feel like accuracy really lets us down. Particuarly gettable set shots.

D Mitchell
23-12-2023, 12:50 PM
Stopping goals has always been the way. ...
I don't think we will ever reach our potential with the list until we have key defensive pillars in place and playing together regularly.
Jones unfortunately has a very limited window, Keith the same, JOD is a prospect, Buss the same, Gardner you're never sure what you get.
We've got issues down back in key positions still that haven't been addressed.
Darcy is not a defender, so to make a forward a defender because we have a defender forward would pretty much be the logical conclusion to our problem right xD
Croft could be a good prospect down back. Again though I think he's naturally a forward. But he has great closing speed so possibly a chance.

Our worst defe3nders are the 6 forwards and to a lesser degree, the mids. The way the ball comes out of the forward line so often and easily puts undue pressure on the defenders. Keath was below par this year and Gardner ahs his limitations but I don't blame the defenders for 2023.

mjp
23-12-2023, 01:35 PM
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1070544/list-analysis-which-club-has-the-most-goalkicking-firepower

Thoughts? And what do we need to do differently to be in say the top 4 or 6 rankings next season?

It's all lies and damned statistics mate.

The top was Adelaide who didn't play finals (but shoulda/coulda/woulda). Geelong were up there. Melbourne with their 'disfunctional' forward line were up there....

Selling out to score compromises you from an attacking POV. Selling out to defend compromises you from a defensive POV. Everything you do in your structure - either ahead of or behind the ball - is a decision that can cause an issue either at the ball (contest) or at the other end.

So often from an attacking perspective games are won by individuals who either have a 'day out' or convert low probability opportunities (or miss high probability opportunities right??). Bobby Hill was the deserved Norm Smith medallist and probably 'won' the game for Collingwood because he played the game of his life (well, apart from his efforts in the Colts game vs West Perth back in 2018 I think!) on the biggest stage imaginable. I very much doubt Brisbane went into that game worrying too much about him and there ya go...in a close game stuff like that matters.

Do you want to be on the BOTTOM of the list? Of course that's bad. But I think back to all the Malcolm Blight Geelong teams that set scoring records year after year only to fall apart in the finals...ultimately you need to score 'enough' to make the oppo respect your ball movement patterns and allow you to defend...and you need to defend well enough such that the oppo can't 'sell out' on the attacking side of the game and overwhelm you.

Footy is almost impossible to play when one side decides to go FULL ATTACK or FULL LOCKDOWN...every team goes into a game with strategies that assume the oppo will both try to score and try to defend a score...I know that sounds ridiculous but it's true...if a team was to sell out and go 100% attack from the first bounce they would be incredibly difficult to counter as pretty much EVERY stoppage setup is based around the oppo being determined to WIN the ball AND prevent you from winning it...if one team simply refuses to do that (think Melbourne in the last q, 2021 grand final) then it's essentially impossible to stop unless you go FULL counter measure...

doggies ftw
23-12-2023, 03:20 PM
Our firepower individually is as good as any, it’s a bit inconsistent but our 3 main/best forwards have been between 19-22yo so that’s a bit to be expected.

The ‘big 4’ have a LOT of goals in them, very roughly I’d expect the following:

Naughty - 50 goals lock (ceiling is probably 60 odd if he gets just a little bit more accurate and has a big season)
Marra - 40 goals (ceiling, who knows, will definitely have a 60 goal season at some stage but for now where he’s at I’d pretty reasonably expect around the 40 mark)
Cody - 35 odd lock (he’s definitely a 40 goal a year player with a full season, his avg is about that - but maybe plays a different role this year so hard to say - I’d lock him in for 30-35 though comfortably)
Lobb - about a goal a game - 25 odd goals.

Conservatively with all staying fit that’s around 150 goals from the big 4, throw in 20 from Bont, ~10 from English and then of course the midfield/wings and support players who need to bob up for say ~5 a game.

There’s only so much goals to go around each game and I think we’re more than covered for raw ‘firepower’ - where we take our game to the next level in the forward half is becoming a more cohesive unit. We don’t need more players who are there to hit the scoreboard, every other player that rotates through our forward line should be purely there for support & defensive pressure at ground level. It’s why we need a couple of guys like Clarke & AJ to come through to provide that pressure, I honestly don’t care if they hit the scoreboard or not, we also need assist players - West is surprisingly very good at this, big SI & GA numbers when he plays. Clarke also was one of the better assist players in the u18s and showed that again in the VFL towards the end of the year. If he can become a Miers type that would be huge for us.

So basically, we don’t need more stars in the forward half. We’ve got them, they just need to continue to build their rapport together - people complain about them getting in each others way but they’ve barely played together, Cody, Marra & Naughty (to a lesser extent now) are just starting their careers and Lobb has only been here a year. Forward cohesion is the hardest thing to get right in the game, these guys will only get better and better the more they play together.

Then every other players focus has to be as the support cast, guys like West, Clarke, AJ, Harmes etc need to stand up this year and purely focus on defensive pressure at ground level, locking the ball in, creating space for the ‘main guys’ and feeding them good delivery.

It’ll be a really nice & balanced mix when these guys can do that

hujsh
23-12-2023, 03:47 PM
I feel like our 'firepower' is mostly determined by players outside the forwardline at this stage. Aside from accuracy of set shots and a lack of natural crumbers we have enough good options up forward that the number of goals kicked should predominately be determined by our mids and defenders

Go_Dogs
23-12-2023, 10:06 PM
I think we have 5 players who could kick 3 or more goals in any given game:

Naughton, Jamarra, Lobb, Weightman, Bont

We’ve then got a few others who could potentially do that although as less likely to spend enough time up forward (but could snag two or three if they spent a half up front) -

English, Darcy

All things being equal, you can then add a couple of others who can kick a goal or two in a game (not every week) -

Treloar, Libba, Williams, Baker, JJ

So…. Do we have enough firepower? Sure. Will we execute it consistently and get the mix humming week to week? That’s our big challenge. As much as I hated aspects of the great Geelong sides in the late 00’s, their passion for setting up and giving off a goal created an excellent forward mix of players who wanted to see their teammates getting reward. If we can get our mix right, there’s enough opportunity for everyone to eat.

jeemak
24-12-2023, 01:23 AM
Your defence is usually only as good as your attack, and vice versa.

Individual players make a huge difference at either end to stop bad stuff happening or make good stuff happen, but to get the balance right it's the players between the arcs who need to put consistent effort in to run each way and control the game by being on the same page with set ups and how to move the ball.

Clean finishing goes a long way, as does proactive intercepting to repel shallow opposition movement to get the ball moving to make the ball less dirty for the forwards - and put them in good spots.

I feel if we get our full ground defence working, and get continuity in our back six our scoring differential will be helped by more than just the goals we repel. We'll move the ball quicker out of defence and score more.

MrMahatma
24-12-2023, 05:55 PM
It’s interesting content but there’s a ladder for a reason… kicking the most goals in a season gets you nothing!

I’m optimistic we’ll create loads of chances and kick loads of them too.

Top 4 for us.

BornInDroopSt'54
26-12-2023, 11:05 AM
Get the rest of our game right and we have enough firepower and delivery ability to score more than the opposition.
Seems Sanders passes to position like Libba, lobbed passes easier to deliver to space in front of target player, Bont's passing is normally sublime and Treloar is a great passer.
We should be a power forward side.
Sympatico was missing this season plus it seems trained leading patterns.

DOG GOD
26-12-2023, 11:17 AM
Our main problems over the last 2-3 years in particular have been 1) inaccuracies and 2) cannot stop run ons.
We have to get this right..we just have to. It’s all in the head and we need to get it right.

Vred
27-12-2023, 06:47 PM
Need more natural smalls. Weightman plays more as a medium, really, really need Clarke to come on as we need that crumbing high-pressure small forward.

Jumping Jones
27-12-2023, 07:03 PM
I rate our attack a solid C grade with B grade potential in 2024. Hard to see any of our forwards being AA calibre in the next two years at least. Hopefully in 2026 we’ll have two though!

jeemak
28-12-2023, 02:15 AM
Been mulling this question over since my post above.

From a personnel perspective I wish we had one or two more mature smalls/ mediums who were forwards but could take turns in the middle if required, rather than the other way around which is what we're stuck with.

Harmes is almost that type of player. He's no Liam Picken (let's be honest though, Liam Picken wasn't Liam Picken until he became Liam Picken in the 2016 finals), but he doesn't seem to have midfield first or only tendencies. Perhaps Scott is as well. Daniel isn't quite big enough to be the type, but otherwise would be capable.

I guess we're just going to have to wait and see if our full ground defensive work can be good enough to give the personnel we have sufficient clean opportunities to score.

Can Bar
28-12-2023, 09:50 AM
Our main problems over the last 2-3 years in particular have been 1) inaccuracies and 2) cannot stop run ons.
We have to get this right..we just have to. It’s all in the head and we need to get it right.
Agree 100% I cant think of too many games we weren't in a position to win, albeit for the above.

Mantis
28-12-2023, 10:06 AM
I rate our attack a solid C grade with B grade potential in 2024. Hard to see any of our forwards being AA calibre in the next two years at least. Hopefully in 2026 we’ll have two though!

I think all of Naughton, Jamarra & Weightman could be AA in 2024. All should be looking to kick 50+ goals which puts them in the frame... especially if they cash in against the lower ranked teams, which we haven't done in the past couple of years, and their peers have.

Bigdog
28-12-2023, 02:30 PM
Forward line is A grade on talent at least for the bigs, but a d grade on connection. Small forwards are a concern.

All we need to become A Grade forward is the following:

- Naughton is already an a grade but he can tidy up his goal kicking. I?d love him to get a run in centre bounces to have a different look at things.
- Lobb is as good forward/ruck in the comp. His learnt the system now and needs to continue on with his form in the back end of last year. Legitimate second rucks are hard to find.
- JUH still doesn?t run out games and work hard enough defensively. If he can improve his tank he will be an a grader.
- Weightman?s pressure game needs to go to another level. I?d like him to work further up the field. I think his had interrupted preseasons the last two season so improved fitness should enable him to be more involved. Also he needs to be more selfless and stop competing with our big boys.
- VDM an injury free season, elite pressure and be a 10-12 possession player every week. Not stressed about the goals.
- Clarke/Jones/Bendendo - one of them to have a breakout season similar to Weightman in 21. Hopefully one of them can cement a spot, be creative, apply pressure and kick 15-20 goals.
- West improved work rate and tank. Needs to hold our structure better. I only want him playing if we give him stints on ball. I think his got it in him.

Of the rest I expect Daniel, Harmes and Sanders to role through Half Forward. We need composure and good ball use from these guys. It?s been frustrating as anything watching mids play half forward roles look slow and butcher the footy going forward. For the most part I hope our coaching line up respect the half forward position by playing true forwards and have watched the evolution of the role in 2023.

Also Sam Darcy I?d prefer to play back as I don?t think the forward line can afford anymore tall timber. However if English is underdone I have no doubt Darcy can play a role forward. Alternatively if the bench becomes 5 we can probably afford the extra forward.

MrMahatma
29-12-2023, 11:33 AM
If you look at JUH and Cody on Insta - they're both in seriously good physical shape, and certainly appear to be busting their asses to get the best out of 2024.

Warrnambulldog
31-12-2023, 10:26 PM
Any word on the new Goalkicking coach? Wonder if Jarryd Roughead would be of interest. Great bloke and Saints goal kicking accuracy improved when he arrived as an assistant, might?ve been more about player positioning than goal kicking technique, but we could do with some of that too

Critter
01-01-2024, 10:48 AM
Need more natural smalls. Weightman plays more as a medium, really, really need Clarke to come on as we need that crumbing high-pressure small forward.

One thing I have noticed about Clarke is that he often gets himself into good positions when the ball enters deep into the forward line. He has picked up a few goals in the match sims by being Johnny-on-the-spot for a handball or a loose ball get. He needs to keep building his fitness so that he can get to more contests.

Bullies
01-01-2024, 11:36 AM
One thing I have noticed about Clarke is that he often gets himself into good positions when the ball enters deep into the forward line. He has picked up a few goals in the match sims by being Johnny-on-the-spot for a handball or a loose ball get. He needs to keep building his fitness so that he can get to more contests. Clarke is a very smart footballer with a great goal sense. He will surprise a few this year especially having a full pre season. As I've said previously he would have gone a lot higher in the draft had he come from a private school and not left school after year 9. Quite happy we took Sanders and not Watson as Clarke could be just as good.

D Mitchell
01-01-2024, 11:53 AM
I think all of Naughton, Jamarra & Weightman could be AA in 2024. All should be looking to kick 50+ goals which puts them in the frame... especially if they cash in against the lower ranked teams, which we haven't done in the past couple of years, and their peers have.

If the last 2 years are anything to go by, not whilst they all play together.

PR0408
04-01-2024, 01:19 AM
Clarke is a very smart footballer with a great goal sense. He will surprise a few this year especially having a full pre season. As I've said previously he would have gone a lot higher in the draft had he come from a private school and not left school after year 9. Quite happy we took Sanders and not Watson as Clarke could be just as good.
Couldn?t agree more about the private school comment.
Clarke not only seems fitter but a little quicker also not sure if it?s fitness or being more confident or understanding his role a bit better. Hopefully he comes back after the Christmas break in even better shape and has a brilliant 8 weeks and continues to improve and puts pressure on the likes of VDM and Scott as the think Clarke is the final piece of the forward half puzzle for me.
I?m also confident that Marra naughts and Cody will be even better in 2024 with that little bit more of experience. All 3 are still very young.
I also expect Lobb to have a huge season. Finished last year well and another pre season together with this group he will go from strength to strength.
Really excited what this forward group can do this year.

FrediKanoute
04-01-2024, 01:35 AM
Couldn?t agree more about the private school comment.
Clarke not only seems fitter but a little quicker also not sure if it?s fitness or being more confident or understanding his role a bit better. Hopefully he comes back after the Christmas break in even better shape and has a brilliant 8 weeks and continues to improve and puts pressure on the likes of VDM and Scott as the think Clarke is the final piece of the forward half puzzle for me.
I?m also confident that Marra naughts and Cody will be even better in 2024 with that little bit more of experience. All 3 are still very young.
I also expect Lobb to have a huge season. Finished last year well and another pre season together with this group he will go from strength to strength.
Really excited what this forward group can do this year.

If he comes on this year it will be a real big plus for the team and balance overall. I think he will play a few games, but we really wont see the impact until 2025 from him.

Uninformed
04-01-2024, 01:49 AM
Any word on the new Goalkicking coach? Wonder if Jarryd Roughead would be of interest. Great bloke and Saints goal kicking accuracy improved when he arrived as an assistant, might?ve been more about player positioning than goal kicking technique, but we could do with some of that too

Roughead would be a really good get I think.

Mantis
04-01-2024, 07:06 AM
Roughead is heavily involved with list management at the Saints so would think there is **** all chance he drops this to become a goal kicking coach.

D Mitchell
04-01-2024, 07:14 AM
Roughead is heavily involved with list management at the Saints so would think there is **** all chance he drops this to become a goal kicking coach.

According to Yahoo, Reddit and Ch 7 News, Roughead resigned from St Kilda before Xmas, replaced by Simon Dalrymple.

GVGjr
04-01-2024, 07:51 AM
Couldn?t agree more about the private school comment.
Clarke not only seems fitter but a little quicker also not sure if it?s fitness or being more confident or understanding his role a bit better. Hopefully he comes back after the Christmas break in even better shape and has a brilliant 8 weeks and continues to improve and puts pressure on the likes of VDM and Scott as the think Clarke is the final piece of the forward half puzzle for me.
I?m also confident that Marra naughts and Cody will be even better in 2024 with that little bit more of experience. All 3 are still very young.
I also expect Lobb to have a huge season. Finished last year well and another pre season together with this group he will go from strength to strength.
Really excited what this forward group can do this year.

Like Busslinger and Gallagher, Clarke really struggled through the preseason last year getting any continuity with his training so is a now a long way ahead of where he was. I think being confident in your ability to push yourself in training is one of the reasons he's starting to stand out and that is the same with the other two.
I also agree about Lobb potentially being a better contributor to the forward line.

Grantysghost
04-01-2024, 08:46 AM
Couldn?t agree more about the private school comment.
Clarke not only seems fitter but a little quicker also not sure if it?s fitness or being more confident or understanding his role a bit better. Hopefully he comes back after the Christmas break in even better shape and has a brilliant 8 weeks and continues to improve and puts pressure on the likes of VDM and Scott as the think Clarke is the final piece of the forward half puzzle for me.
I?m also confident that Marra naughts and Cody will be even better in 2024 with that little bit more of experience. All 3 are still very young.
I also expect Lobb to have a huge season. Finished last year well and another pre season together with this group he will go from strength to strength.
Really excited what this forward group can do this year.
Loving this. Hope you're right is a very exciting group. I'm on the fence re Clarke (I get it's early) so I'm rapt he's showing more this pre-season.

Can Bar
04-01-2024, 08:48 AM
Our main Forwards are still very young, 21-24, with the exception of Lobb. We may still be a couple of years away from our Forwards dominating all teams week in week out.

Grantysghost
04-01-2024, 08:52 AM
Our main Forwards are still very young, 21-24, with the exception of Lobb. We may still be a couple of years away from our Forwards dominating all teams week in week out.
Yep CB, will be hot and cold still for a while but crikey I don't think we've ever had a better crop of young forwards.
I'm hoping we can lock away Marra soon. I'm pretty confident he will stay, we might just have to offer a lot of years.

Mantis
04-01-2024, 09:22 AM
According to Yahoo, Reddit and Ch 7 News, Roughead resigned from St Kilda before Xmas, replaced by Simon Dalrymple.

Well there you go!

Dalrymple hasn?t really replaced Roughy as the Saints head of recruitment also quit, but it seems he is available.

GVGjr
04-01-2024, 09:38 AM
Our main Forwards are still very young, 21-24, with the exception of Lobb. We may still be a couple of years away from our Forwards dominating all teams week in week out.

Agree, it's a young forward line but potentially a very potent one. If we get just a bit more out of Naughton, Marra and Lobb it will create more opportunities for the smaller players as well. Sure it would have been nice to add someone like Nick Watson but I think we have enough players capable of kicking us winning scores.

ledge
04-01-2024, 12:04 PM
We have a great forward line, the problem is the connection from the mids and making sure the talls don?t get in each others way. If we get that right it will be hard for teams to stop us.

Countrydog5
04-01-2024, 12:16 PM
I think we just need to be a little smarter with who attacks the ball in the air and who blocks / stays down and we'll see a huge lift in our ability to convert I50s to scores. It seems far too often we have 2 or 3 talls all flying for the same ball, and sometimes even Weightman, West, Vandermeer etc.

All of our guys are capable of taking strong grabs in a pack, so you want them to attack the ball in the air, but we do need to be better at blocking or staying down if out of position and not able to be first to the drop of the ball.

I can't recall how many times last year I put my head in my hands because Naughts spoiled Mara, or Vandermeer stood in the leading lane disrupting what should have been a clear run and jump at the ball.

Fingers crossed our forward setup and coaching is working hard to improve those areas. Our poor goalkicking is often a direct result from taking shots too close to the boundary because our forward setup only clears space in those areas.

Bulldog Joe
04-01-2024, 12:29 PM
I think we just need to be a little smarter with who attacks the ball in the air and who blocks / stays down and we'll see a huge lift in our ability to convert I50s to scores. It seems far too often we have 2 or 3 talls all flying for the same ball, and sometimes even Weightman, West, Vandermeer etc.

All of our guys are capable of taking strong grabs in a pack, so you want them to attack the ball in the air, but we do need to be better at blocking or staying down if out of position and not able to be first to the drop of the ball.

I can't recall how many times last year I put my head in my hands because Naughts spoiled Mara, or Vandermeer stood in the leading lane disrupting what should have been a clear run and jump at the ball.

Fingers crossed our forward setup and coaching is working hard to improve those areas. Our poor goalkicking is often a direct result from taking shots too close to the boundary because our forward setup only clears space in those areas.

This is the biggest issue.

We have the personnel to worry any defence, but we need them to work as a team rather than all try to be individually brilliant.

If they work together to create space and separation they will also make it easier for players upfield to put it to the advantage of one of them.

mjp
04-01-2024, 01:09 PM
...I put my head in my hands because Naughts spoiled Mara, or Vandermeer stood in the leading lane disrupting what should have been a clear run and jump at the ball.


I do understand this but would you prefer:

1/. Our forwards to bring the ball to ground no matter what.
2/. Sam Taylor, or Jake Lever, or Darcy Moore, or whoever else - take an intercept mark.

I think there are levels here and whilst I get the frustration with forwards not being fully in sync, man-o-man when we played the Giants in Ballarat I was praying for us turn the Taylor contest into a 2v2 S&^T show versus a Taylor marking clinic...

Countrydog5
04-01-2024, 01:22 PM
I do understand this but would you prefer:

1/. Our forwards to bring the ball to ground no matter what.
2/. Sam Taylor, or Jake Lever, or Darcy Moore, or whoever else - take an intercept mark.

I think there are levels here and whilst I get the frustration with forwards not being fully in sync, man-o-man when we played the Giants in Ballarat I was praying for us turn the Taylor contest into a 2v2 S&^T show versus a Taylor marking clinic...

I get what you're saying, but we should be backing in our guys to bring the ball to ground in a 1 on 1 far more often than not. Mara, Naughts and Lobb are all now experienced and physically developed enough where they should be winning or at least halving most aerial contests.

Some days gun defenders like Taylor will get the best of them, but that's when we should be trying to drag him away from the contest via a lead rather than take him to the ball as well by having all our guys drawn to the ball drop.

doggies ftw
04-01-2024, 04:07 PM
I get what you're saying, but we should be backing in our guys to bring the ball to ground in a 1 on 1 far more often than not. Mara, Naughts and Lobb are all now experienced and physically developed enough where they should be winning or at least halving most aerial contests.

Some days gun defenders like Taylor will get the best of them, but that's when we should be trying to drag him away from the contest via a lead rather than take him to the ball as well by having all our guys drawn to the ball drop.

Spot on mate, absolutely nailed it - if a defender is on top we should be dragging them away from the hotspot not leading them there to spoil our other talls too, and if he doesn?t want to follow then great we should have an easy lead up target free. This is where we should thrive considering we have two tall forwards who are impossible to defend on the lead and 3 tall forwards who are great contested marks.

Of course at times they might be in each others space, that?s unavoidable but in those situations they need to recognise that one is in the best position to mark the thing and the others job is purely to allow them to do that by laying little blocks and putting their defender off balance. The best key forward duos do this subtlety & brilliantly, they almost never fly for the same ball.

We?ll get there, these things take time for the cohesion to build (just look at the difference between ?20 & ?21 after Bruce and Naughty had a bit of time to gel and learn each others games) I?m confident this will improve, but it needs to be our highest focus in the forward line bar none, because it was pretty poor this year and cost us. No point having gun key forwards if you can?t utilise them correctly

mjp
04-01-2024, 09:33 PM
Some days gun defenders like Taylor will get the best of them, but that's when we should be trying to drag him away from the contest via a lead rather than take him to the ball as well by having all our guys drawn to the ball drop.

100% they should be bringing the ball to ground...but when you talk about dragging intercept defenders away from the drop zone with a lead..well - THEY WONT FALL FOR THAT.

This is what happens against the best intercept defenders in the comp:

1/. Oppo plans to move them around and 'lead up' on them.
2/. Player executes plan - and it might even work for a while. But the intercept player let's them go and relishes their role as a spare.
3/. Midfield pressure impacts delivery and intercept defender takes uncontested mark after uncontested mark.

That is also known as the Melbourne defensive game plan, the Giants defensive game plan, the Geelong plan when Steward plays, the Richmond plan when Rance was there, and on and on it goes. You can't lead up on the best interceptors in the game...you can't.

There is one way to deal with interceptors - stick an elbow in their back and:
- Don't lead - they are SMARTER than you are. Play with that elbow in their back and MAKE them compete, don't let them be a spare.
- Don't think they are too high/deep/skinny etc to impact - they aren't...and they are SMARTER than you.

Footy isn't perfect. There are only 3-ways to score - turnover, kick-in or stoppage. Creating a contest and bringing the ball to ground then forcing a stoppage inside forward 50? That's not a terrible outcome. Does it beat an uncontested mark by a forward? Of course not...but look at the numbers - the team with the most inside 50 stoppages wins almost as many times as the team with the most marks inside 50....

FrediKanoute
05-01-2024, 12:45 AM
100% they should be bringing the ball to ground...but when you talk about dragging intercept defenders away from the drop zone with a lead..well - THEY WONT FALL FOR THAT.

This is what happens against the best intercept defenders in the comp:

1/. Oppo plans to move them around and 'lead up' on them.
2/. Player executes plan - and it might even work for a while. But the intercept player let's them go and relishes their role as a spare.
3/. Midfield pressure impacts delivery and intercept defender takes uncontested mark after uncontested mark.

That is also known as the Melbourne defensive game plan, the Giants defensive game plan, the Geelong plan when Steward plays, the Richmond plan when Rance was there, and on and on it goes. You can't lead up on the best interceptors in the game...you can't.

There is one way to deal with interceptors - stick an elbow in their back and:
- Don't lead - they are SMARTER than you are. Play with that elbow in their back and MAKE them compete, don't let them be a spare.
- Don't think they are too high/deep/skinny etc to impact - they aren't...and they are SMARTER than you.

Footy isn't perfect. There are only 3-ways to score - turnover, kick-in or stoppage. Creating a contest and bringing the ball to ground then forcing a stoppage inside forward 50? That's not a terrible outcome. Does it beat an uncontested mark by a forward? Of course not...but look at the numbers - the team with the most inside 50 stoppages wins almost as many times as the team with the most marks inside 50....

You are referring to the Josh Schache plan!

jeemak
05-01-2024, 01:19 AM
If we roll a forward up as we do then we're already one down in the intercept area. No defender is going to be dragged away from that.

So it means that if we win possession up the ground we need to be better at hard forward running and sharing the ball so we don't have to kick to the line as often as we currently do. And that means everyone from deep defence needs to get going and take risks......but be committed to getting back.....

But two way running is a massive issue for us, and as often happens we do kick forward and get caught too high across the ground because we don't share well enough out of the contest up the ground, we don't have enough options to share with, and we struggle to run back as hard as we run forward.

So we end up in the cycle of crowding the narrow side of the ground going forward to protect everyone on the ground from being caught out!

I don't actually mind that as a strategy/ outcome given the defensive limitations and unwillingness to really run back hard from our defensively limited personnel.

Just a few tweaks in sharing off the contest will go a long way to making us better.

Can Bar
05-01-2024, 09:54 AM
Yep CB, will be hot and cold still for a while but crikey I don't think we've ever had a better crop of young forwards.
I'm hoping we can lock away Marra soon. I'm pretty confident he will stay, we might just have to offer a lot of years.
Re: Marra we need to get it done, so be it, if its 8-9 years. Clearly the swans will be offering something similar, as they hunt for their forward structure.

Can Bar
05-01-2024, 10:03 AM
Agree, it's a young forward line but potentially a very potent one. If we get just a bit more out of Naughton, Marra and Lobb it will create more opportunities for the smaller players as well. Sure it would have been nice to add someone like Nick Watson but I think we have enough players capable of kicking us winning scores.
Agree, I was hoping we didn't take Watson, that is not a knock on him, just didn't think we needed a small Fwd with Clarke and Jones etal working hard in the back ground. Thought Jones showed some toe early in 2023, then faded. Another preseason will help him. Also liking what I am hearing about Clarke.

Go_Dogs
05-01-2024, 03:16 PM
Ignore. Wrong thread.

Uninformed
05-01-2024, 07:32 PM
I get what you're saying, but we should be backing in our guys to bring the ball to ground in a 1 on 1 far more often than not. Mara, Naughts and Lobb are all now experienced and physically developed enough where they should be winning or at least halving most aerial contests.

Some days gun defenders like Taylor will get the best of them, but that's when we should be trying to drag him away from the contest via a lead rather than take him to the ball as well by having all our guys drawn to the ball drop.

Is it my imagination, or do our guys get pushed under the ball more than most?

D Mitchell
05-01-2024, 09:26 PM
Is it my imagination, or do our guys get pushed under the ball more than most?

Probably not (your imagination), add to it, they get left in the wake of defenders surging out of our forward line, nudged off balance as the ball comes in, take ages to re position themselves in what looks to be like a formation after flying against each other, glare at the mids when he ball comes in and they don't mark/collect it, sneak out wide to "make position" then glare at the mids when the ball doesn't go to them. This has been going on for 3-4 years, now and the "big 3" now average 5 goals a game collectively among themselves, that's not good enough where the Club seems to pinning its hopes on a monster forward line set up. The excuse offered ? they are all young. During 2023, the 3 were all over the age of 21 years and in the system for multiple years. Do I have the answer ? Of course I do, as soon as the Club or anyone else, pays me assistant coach wages, then I'm keeping it to meself. If I'm wrong, then I'll have the same excuse as every other coach or assistant coach.

Testekill
05-01-2024, 10:02 PM
I think that potentially we have a top five forward line in terms of firepower, it's just all execution of skills that holds us back. We get more players that can hit Lobb or JUH on the lead and we'll become significantly more efficient.

D Mitchell
05-01-2024, 10:46 PM
I think that potentially we have a top five forward line in terms of firepower, it's just all execution of skills that holds us back. We get more players that can hit Lobb or JUH on the lead and we'll become significantly more efficient.

Potential / potentially. What we are being served up with is not acceptable. Don't blame the mids or half backs, that's a cop out. I recall one interviewer quizzing Cooney why he always went to BBB Hall. Said Cooney "Because he's always where the kick should go." No more excuses, prima donnas have to do more than wave hands in the air 'kick it to me'. Get BBB back to teach forward craft before we even consider Roughead.

No offence meant, T.

jeemak
05-01-2024, 10:56 PM
Forwards run either where they're told to or where they think the ball is going to go.

I have no doubt that in each case the answer's shallow.

Being more adventurous about where in the forward half we put the ball isn't just on the players asking for the footy. I needs to start from the last line and also at the source at stoppages - and how we exit them.

D Mitchell
05-01-2024, 11:06 PM
Forwards run either where they're told to.................... n

They ae either not being told or don't comply. Plonk me on the big salary and I'll tell you, but almost certainly get it wrong - like all the others.

Uninformed
06-01-2024, 01:00 AM
Probably not (your imagination), add to it, they get left in the wake of defenders surging out of our forward line, nudged off balance as the ball comes in, take ages to re position themselves in what looks to be like a formation after flying against each other, glare at the mids when he ball comes in and they don't mark/collect it, sneak out wide to "make position" then glare at the mids when the ball doesn't go to them. This has been going on for 3-4 years, now and the "big 3" now average 5 goals a game collectively among themselves, that's not good enough where the Club seems to pinning its hopes on a monster forward line set up. The excuse offered ? they are all young. During 2023, the 3 were all over the age of 21 years and in the system for multiple years. Do I have the answer ? Of course I do, as soon as the Club or anyone else, pays me assistant coach wages, then I'm keeping it to meself. If I'm wrong, then I'll have the same excuse as every other coach or assistant coach.

Just to take one issue (without being privy to your entire IP:)), what would a coach tell his forwards to stop them getting pushed under the ball?

jeemak
06-01-2024, 01:32 AM
They ae either not being told or don't comply. Plonk me on the big salary and I'll tell you, but almost certainly get it wrong - like all the others.

We play shallow, force a crowd. From everything I've seen they do that, if you can tell me they're instructed not to do that go ahead.

I'm not saying I like how we/ they play. I just can't say the forwards aren't doing what they're told.

Bulldog Joe
06-01-2024, 09:46 AM
Just to take one issue (without being privy to your entire IP:)), what would a coach tell his forwards to stop them getting pushed under the ball?
A simple premise of life.
If you keep doing the same thing with the expectation of a different result you are insane.

If they are getting continually pushed under the ball they need to stop engaging the physical push and shove or have someone else coming over the top of the contest.

D Mitchell
06-01-2024, 11:45 AM
Just to take one issue (without being privy to your entire IP:)), what would a coach tell his forwards to stop them getting pushed under the ball?
That, along with being nudged off balance, even getting back into position quickly, aren't really coaching issues, they occur all over the ground. Just to contradict myself, I recall reading an account of one of Chris Grant's coaches, probably Plough, having it drawn to his attention by a radio commentator that Grant was being forced under the ball by a particular defender during a game so instructed Grant to play the defender from behind. I can't be more explicit than that, it's one of the multitude of titbits still in the huge pile of the unsorted, uncatalogued and to be filed of my entire IP ;)

D Mitchell
06-01-2024, 12:10 PM
We play shallow, force a crowd. From everything I've seen they do that, if you can tell me they're instructed not to do that go ahead.

I'm not saying I like how we/ they play. I just can't say the forwards aren't doing what they're told.

Fair point if by "shallow" you are referring to the forward press tactic, that might account for 2-3 forwards flying for the high ball in front of goal, one of my criticisms. A forward press works well with players like Clay Smith, Picken, a young McLean, Dunkley, Dickson, even Zaine Cordy in the forward line. The current forward line lacks those sorts. If I've misread you, I'd be interested in what you mean by "shallow".

PS MJP uses the phrase "wide and shallow" It looks like a reference to he forward pockets.

mjp
06-01-2024, 01:50 PM
Forwards run either where they're told to or where they think the ball is going to go.


Forwards (mostly) run to space.

Good forwards run to where their team-mates can kick-it AND where they can score from whether there is space in that area or not. It's hard to teach and it's why players like Lynch and Hogan tend to get shots on goal whether they are in form or out of form. And it's why players like the recent revolving door at Melbourne (Henneman, Schache) will be feast or famine.

If you run to space it is generally available wide and shallow...hard to hit those targets and hard to kick goals from there.

Uninformed
06-01-2024, 09:57 PM
That, along with being nudged off balance, even getting back into position quickly, aren't really coaching issues, they occur all over the ground. Just to contradict myself, I recall reading an account of one of Chris Grant's coaches, probably Plough, having it drawn to his attention by a radio commentator that Grant was being forced under the ball by a particular defender during a game so instructed Grant to play the defender from behind. I can't be more explicit than that, it's one of the multitude of titbits still in the huge pile of the unsorted, uncatalogued and to be filed of my entire IP ;)

If you don't get the top job, you can always publish the IP! Big sales numbers.;)

Uninformed
06-01-2024, 10:00 PM
A simple premise of life.
If you keep doing the same thing with the expectation of a different result you are insane.

If they are getting continually pushed under the ball they need to stop engaging the physical push and shove or have someone else coming over the top of the contest.


To me it appears they are moving quickly to the fall of the ball, but need to stop and prop with enough power to knock the defender off balance. Probably give up a free for blocking though?

D Mitchell
07-01-2024, 02:53 PM
...or maybe they aren't as good as we think they are. In 2016, there was 1 specialist forward, Dickson, hardly a tall marking/monster, in the Grand Final team. The obsession with filling the forward line with with tall, marking forwards is counter productive, arguably a major contribution to the reasons we don't get past the first week of the Finals. What wins now is a team of goers who excel both defensively and offensively, no matter where they play.

Uninformed
07-01-2024, 06:04 PM
...or maybe they aren't as good as we think they are. In 2016, there was 1 specialist forward, Dickson, hardly a tall marking/monster, in the Grand Final team. The obsession with filling the forward line with with tall, marking forwards is counter productive, arguably a major contribution to the reasons we don't get past the first week of the Finals. What wins now is a team of goers who excel both defensively and offensively, no matter where they play.

I am hoping super mobile talls with good ground game like Marra and Naughton can do the job.

D Mitchell
10-01-2024, 01:43 PM
I am hoping super mobile talls with good ground game like Marra and Naughton can do the job.

Naughton's a couple of years longer in the system than Ugle-Hagan. He shows aggression when the ball is in dispute, neither do nearly enough work when the opposition has control of the ball. I join you in your hope but it hasn't happened yet.

mjp
10-01-2024, 01:45 PM
Naughton's a couple of years longer in the system than Ugle-Hagan. He shows aggression when the ball is in dispute, neither do nearly enough work when the opposition has control of the ball. I join you in your hope but it hasn't happened yet.

Naughton is elite when the oppo have the ball. Strongly disagree.

Grantysghost
10-01-2024, 02:01 PM
Naughton is elite when the oppo have the ball. Strongly disagree.

Great DEFENSIVE skills hey MJP ;)

D Mitchell
10-01-2024, 02:30 PM
Naughton is elite when the oppo have the ball. Strongly disagree.

Even more strongly re state my case. When the balls to be won, Naughton's right up there but doesn't apply pressure when it's gone. I recall James Cook, your classic forward who considered his job done once the ball had gone, unusually chasing a defender out, metres back, the defender bounced the ball, it went off at an angle and by the time the defender regathered it, Cook caught up, tackled, goaled from the free. That's what Naughton doesn't do. That said, he's the best of the tall forwards by a mile. What's "shallow" ?

bornadog
10-01-2024, 02:40 PM
Naughton's a couple of years longer in the system than Ugle-Hagan. He shows aggression when the ball is in dispute, neither do nearly enough work when the opposition has control of the ball. I join you in your hope but it hasn't happened yet.


Naughton is elite when the oppo have the ball. Strongly disagree.

To back that up, Naughton sits top 12 in AFL for tackles inside 50 - all the players above him are below 190cm tall.

D Mitchell
10-01-2024, 02:59 PM
To back that up, Naughton sits top 12 in AFL for tackles inside 50 - all the players above him are below 190cm tall.

Thanks, BAD. That stat validates Naughton's work when the ball is in dispute. When the ball's clear i e when the opposition have it under control and on the way out is where lies his Achilles heel.

mjp
10-01-2024, 03:41 PM
That's what Naughton doesn't do.

Again. STRONGLY DISAGREE.

Naughton chases and tackles like a maniac.

Mantis
10-01-2024, 04:16 PM
Thanks, BAD. That stat validates Naughton's work when the ball is in dispute. When the ball's clear i e when the opposition have it under control and on the way out is where lies his Achilles heel.

I'm not sure your expectations are realistic. He, along with pretty much every key forward don't have the aerobic capabilities to run across the field to force turn-overs... sure he is to play his role, which he adequately does, but it has its limitations.

Grantysghost
10-01-2024, 04:22 PM
Again. STRONGLY DISAGREE.

Naughton chases and tackles like a maniac.
Replace maniac with CHB.

D Mitchell
10-01-2024, 04:51 PM
I'm not sure your expectations are realistic. He, along with pretty much every key forward don't have the aerobic capabilities to run across the field to force turn-overs... sure he is to play his role, which he adequately does, but it has its limitations.
If James Cook can do it, so can Aaron Naughton. That's micro, though. Macro, there are too many dwelling inside the forward 50 who not only don't do the James Cook thing, they don't even do the Naughton thing. Back on topic, if the better half of the forward 6 average 5 goals a game and don't apply sufficient defensive capability, is it any wonder we don't win enough games ?

Happy Days
10-01-2024, 06:02 PM
Naughton is the best pressure key forward in the AFL by a mile, what am I missing here.

GVGjr
10-01-2024, 06:06 PM
Naughton is the best pressure key forward in the AFL by a mile, what am I missing here.

Yep, he's no slacko. :)

Grantysghost
10-01-2024, 06:24 PM
Naughton is the best pressure key forward in the AFL by a mile, what am I missing here.

Wait, have you seen Max Gawn?

Grantysghost
10-01-2024, 06:26 PM
Naughton is insanely good in this regard. I get what the question is, does he chase out and tackle ; the answer is an emphatic yes.

doggies ftw
10-01-2024, 06:54 PM
If James Cook can do it, so can Aaron Naughton. That's micro, though. Macro, there are too many dwelling inside the forward 50 who not only don't do the James Cook thing, they don't even do the Naughton thing. Back on topic, if the better half of the forward 6 average 5 goals a game and don't apply sufficient defensive capability, is it any wonder we don't win enough games ?

Yep, because some bloke who played 60 games in the forward line in the 90s is comparable to the aerobic demands of a key forward in the modern game?

You have to chase to be able to tackle, not all tackles happen with ball in despite, so I think the fact he?s ranked elite for tackles inside 50 AND pressure acts, ie the act of chasing and pressuring can safely put this debate to bed.

There is not a single key forward in the comp who does this better than Naughty

hujsh
10-01-2024, 09:29 PM
I don't think Naughton can reach Pickett type feats of running down players from behind when they think they're safe. The players that do that are great but Naughton can't be that, and our best general pressure forward and our best contested mark. The fact that he's even arguably two of those is kind of amazing to consider.

jeemak
10-01-2024, 09:43 PM
Forwards (mostly) run to space.

Good forwards run to where their team-mates can kick-it AND where they can score from whether there is space in that area or not. It's hard to teach and it's why players like Lynch and Hogan tend to get shots on goal whether they are in form or out of form. And it's why players like the recent revolving door at Melbourne (Henneman, Schache) will be feast or famine.

If you run to space it is generally available wide and shallow...hard to hit those targets and hard to kick goals from there.

Yeah, and forwards are often told to run to space! But not always, as in the case with our forwards where they're likely told to run near side/ shallow.

Thus we seem to get a lot of shots from ordinary distances and angles, rather than closer to goal and more central.

doggies ftw
11-01-2024, 12:02 AM
Yeah, and forwards are often told to run to space! But not always, as in the case with our forwards where they're likely told to run near side/ shallow.

Thus we seem to get a lot of shots from ordinary distances and angles, rather than closer to goal and more central.
We go wide inside 50 but also along the wings on our way out of defence.

I believe wed do that to protect our defence as we don?t want the ball pinging straight down if we lose the contest in the ?hotspot? or more central.

But we have to move out of that mindset, no point having a forward line full of great marking forwards if we don?t trust them to win their contests.

bornadog
11-01-2024, 12:04 AM
We go wide inside 50 but also along the wings on our way out of defence.

I believe wed do that to protect our defence as we don?t want the ball pinging straight down if we lose the contest in the ?hotspot? or more central.

But we have to move out of that mindset, no point having a forward line full of great marking forwards if we don?t trust them to win their contests.

I would like to see us take some risks coming out of defence and going straight down the guts like Pies do. The quicker we get it into the forward line, the less congested it will be

meenies
11-01-2024, 12:07 AM
I can't make training this week (hope to go next week) but those trackside, can you watch to see if the forwards are leading to space or the pockets still. Might to hard to gauge if still only using half field for match sim though.
I hope we have better lead patterns this year.

jeemak
11-01-2024, 02:29 AM
We go wide inside 50 but also along the wings on our way out of defence.

I believe wed do that to protect our defence as we don?t want the ball pinging straight down if we lose the contest in the ?hotspot? or more central.

But we have to move out of that mindset, no point having a forward line full of great marking forwards if we don?t trust them to win their contests.

Absolutely agree that's what we do and why.

And also agree that we have to move out of that mindset. But, it can only be done if the forwards either win the contest, and chase out if they don't. It's also difficult to stop the outlet if we're always playing five against six due to rolling a half forward up the ground. Sometimes that forward is followed, other times they're not.

Mofra
11-01-2024, 07:05 AM
Even more strongly re state my case. When the balls to be won, Naughton's right up there but doesn't apply pressure when it's gone.
What?
Naughton is our best forward for chasing and applying pressure when the opposition have the ball.

Dazza
12-01-2024, 04:41 PM
Yeah I'd have to agree he's probably marginally behind Weightman at pressuring f50 exits. Thank god we gave up the back off 5m rule this year

GVGjr
20-01-2024, 06:08 PM
I can't make training this week (hope to go next week) but those trackside, can you watch to see if the forwards are leading to space or the pockets still. Might to hard to gauge if still only using half field for match sim though.
I hope we have better lead patterns this year.

I think we will get a better gauge on this next week.

DadBod
21-01-2024, 10:14 PM
I had this beautiful thing written up going through stats and all that and then I accidentally pressed the back button on the phone and lost it all. So this time I did it on the computer and emailed myself.... many a swear word was said. This one isn't as in-depth stats.

This is how I read it in relation to our forward line.

1. We were the 10th best scoring side in 2023 with Brisbane (359), Pies (346), GWS (330), Port (330) and Melb (321) the top 5, Brisbane was a whopping 83 goals ahead of us on 276 (over 3 a week).
a. Brisbane had a conversion of 59%
b. Pies was 63%
c. GWS was 58%
d. Port was 56%
e. Melb was 59%
f. We were 56% (not too bad)

2. We were 10th for I50s with the top 5 being Brisbane (1471), Melb (1460), GWS (1453), Port (1416) and Carl (1389). Pies were a surprise with (1367) in 6th, we were 10th with - (1243). What?s that mean:
a. Bris had a shot every 2.4 entries.
b. Melb (2.6 entries)
c. GWS (2.5 entries)
d. Port (2.4 entries)
e. Carl (2.6 entries)
f. Pies (2.5 entries)
g. We were (2.5 entries)

3. We were 11th for Marks I50, 80 behind Brisbane with the top 5 being again, Bris, Pies, Geel, GWS, Port, Melb 6th.

4. We were second last in rebounds, only ahead of Geelong and were 9th for Rebounds against, but all the top rated teams had more rebounds against. What does that tell me? They had more confidence in their Mids and Backs that they were able to risk it for the biscuit. Their forwards were attacking as was their ball movement. We were slow, trying to protect our perceived weaknesses which was ball movement against, it just didn?t give our forward line a chance.

5. I think our forward line stacks up, and will only get better which bodes well, but we must move the ball. Everyone of those top 5 teams mentioned above move the ball with lightning speed, if we can do that, and improve our accuracy, everything else seems to stack up.

D Mitchell
22-01-2024, 12:01 AM
I had this beautiful thing written up going through stats and all that and then I accidentally pressed the back button on the phone and lost it all. So this time I did it on the computer and emailed myself.... many a swear word was said. This one isn't as in-depth stats.

This is how I read it in relation to our forward line.

1. We were the 10th best scoring side in 2023 with Brisbane (359), Pies (346), GWS (330), Port (330) and Melb (321) the top 5, Brisbane was a whopping 83 goals ahead of us on 276 (over 3 a week).
a. Brisbane had a conversion of 59%
b. Pies was 63%
c. GWS was 58%
d. Port was 56%
e. Melb was 59%
f. We were 56% (not too bad)

2. We were 10th for I50s with the top 5 being Brisbane (1471), Melb (1460), GWS (1453), Port (1416) and Carl (1389). Pies were a surprise with (1367) in 6th, we were 10th with - (1243). What?s that mean:
a. Bris had a shot every 2.4 entries.
b. Melb (2.6 entries)
c. GWS (2.5 entries)
d. Port (2.4 entries)
e. Carl (2.6 entries)
f. Pies (2.5 entries)
g. We were (2.5 entries)

3. We were 11th for Marks I50, 80 behind Brisbane with the top 5 being again, Bris, Pies, Geel, GWS, Port, Melb 6th.

4. We were second last in rebounds, only ahead of Geelong and were 9th for Rebounds against, but all the top rated teams had more rebounds against. What does that tell me? They had more confidence in their Mids and Backs that they were able to risk it for the biscuit. Their forwards were attacking as was their ball movement. We were slow, trying to protect our perceived weaknesses which was ball movement against, it just didn?t give our forward line a chance.

5. I think our forward line stacks up, and will only get better which bodes well, but we must move the ball. Everyone of those top 5 teams mentioned above move the ball with lightning speed, if we can do that, and improve our accuracy, everything else seems to stack up.

Thankyou, DadBod, that's a mammoth effort, you've gone beyond just looking up stats, arranging and drawing conclusions, particularly given the frustration of losing data and having to start all over again, I know a bit about that, because of fecking, dud, Apple, iphone...ah, never mind. You and I are on opposite sides of the glass half full glass half empty divide. What your stats tell me is different from what they tell you.

Bolded bit. 10th at scoring; 10th inside 50s; 11th at marks inside 50; second last at rebounds (I don't quite understand "against").

They tell me that we don't get the ball inside 50 enough and when we do, we don't take marks or hold the ball in (that's my rebound query).

Isn't it your conclusion that the problem is slow movement of the ball into the forward line, which I agree with, and the solution is quicker ball movement and greater accuracy ? No argument there but it's the next step where we differ. I think it's the ineptitude of the forwards or the forward structure, not sure which, that dictates uncertainty upfield. I'll go further and add that our Richards/Johannisen/Daniel/Dale and mids spend more time defending than attacking because of ease with which the ball comes out of our F50 by oppo defenders, perhaps your rebounds against ? Lies, damned lies and statistics Michael Wheeler. Well done DB

DadBod
22-01-2024, 03:18 PM
Thankyou, DadBod, that's a mammoth effort, you've gone beyond just looking up stats, arranging and drawing conclusions, particularly given the frustration of losing data and having to start all over again, I know a bit about that, because of fecking, dud, Apple, iphone...ah, never mind. You and I are on opposite sides of the glass half full glass half empty divide. What your stats tell me is different from what they tell you.

Bolded bit. 10th at scoring; 10th inside 50s; 11th at marks inside 50; second last at rebounds (I don't quite understand "against").

They tell me that we don't get the ball inside 50 enough and when we do, we don't take marks or hold the ball in (that's my rebound query).

Isn't it your conclusion that the problem is slow movement of the ball into the forward line, which I agree with, and the solution is quicker ball movement and greater accuracy ? No argument there but it's the next step where we differ. I think it's the ineptitude of the forwards or the forward structure, not sure which, that dictates uncertainty upfield. I'll go further and add that our Richards/Johannisen/Daniel/Dale and mids spend more time defending than attacking because of ease with which the ball comes out of our F50 by oppo defenders, perhaps your rebounds against ? Lies, damned lies and statistics Michael Wheeler. Well done DB

They're fair conclusions too. It is rebounds against, ie: how easy people move it from our forward line. I certainly agree that our fwd line set-up needs work, hopefully that's helped by speedier ball movement. Hopefully we'll see soon enough. Fingers crossed they fix the issues we see.

Jumping Jones
22-01-2024, 05:16 PM
I bloody hope so