2024 - If we are IN, who is OUT??

[mjp]

"Twas The Night Before Christmas, And All Through The House, Not A Creature Was Stirring, Except... The Four A******* Coming In The Rear In Standard Two-By-Two Cover Formation."

I have ad libbed this to be "Twas Jan 17th and all through the VU High Performance Centre everything was WELL...except the Tim English concussion issues".

Anyway, things are good. New training centre. New assistant coaches. Re-invigorated senior coach. New head of high performance. Exciting rookies...and the general thought is that in 2024, we are BACK in the upper echelons of the ladder.

My question is pretty simple: For us to go in, someone must go OUT! Who have you got?

Collingwood - Been pretty darned good for a while now (Buckley's last year notwithstanding) and seem to have a good mix.
Brisbane - Strong home ground advantage, in the 'window'.
Carlton - Last 12-weeks were pretty amazing.
Port - Young midfield for the ages
Giants - Probs better in the last 12-weeks than even Carlton were and loaded across the ground.
Sydney - Did I mention young midfields?
Melbourne - Culture under question, talent NOT under question.
Saints - Ross teams play finals.

I suspect the popular pick is gonna be the Saints...but I guess I'm curious...who thinks someone else will fall and WHY??

[Sedat]

Collingwood are old as buggery and it wouldn't surprise me if they miss out. McStay out for the season - good luck having Frampton as your key forward for 23 rounds and finals.

Would have said Port, but they now have Sweet-alicious putting it on a platter for their mids.

Melbourne could well implode, especially if May and Lever drop off/get injured. Gawn and/or Petrcca injury and they are toast.

Saints will be thereabouts but could miss - they won't drop off much (if at all) under Ross the Boss.

Brisbane, Carlton, Giants look good things for serious contention.

Sydney are an unknown for mine. Grundy could get them contending or they were a little over-rated in 2022 and their real level is 7-12.

[bornadog]

For me the most vulnerable will be, Yes Saints, GWS and Sydney.

GWS got in because they beat us by a goal and did have an incredible run for the last 12 games

Sydney didn't beat a top 4 side in the season and snuck in due to a draw. Gulden kept them in many games and I think sides will respect him more in 2024 and apply a tag.

Saints - again didn't beat a top 4 side and lost to Carlton, GWS (last game) and only beat Sydney in top 8

Crows are up and coming and may make the 8

[Grantysghost]

I'm going to nominate Port.

Their defence is yuk. Aliir of course is a gun, however they really remind me of us. Some young gun forwards (Marshall, Lord), a gun midfield, a stubborn coach.
Would only take an injury to one of Butters or Rozee and they'd be in big trouble.

[bornadog]

I'm going to nominate Port.

Their defence is yuk. Aliir of course is a gun, however they really remind me of us. Some young gun forwards (Marshall, Lord), a gun midfield, a stubborn coach.
Would only take an injury to one of Butters or Rozee and they'd be in big trouble.

I was tempted to say Port as well

[Sedat]

I'm going to nominate Port.

Their defence is yuk. Aliir of course is a gun, however they really remind me of us. Some young gun forwards (Marshall, Lord), a gun midfield, a stubborn coach.
Would only take an injury to one of Butters or Rozee and they'd be in big trouble.


I was tempted to say Port as well
Oh ye of little faith. Jordon will have you eating your words.

[GVGjr]

What the Saints achieved in year one of the Ross Lyon return was 'saintsational' but it's going to be that much harder for them to back that up again. They'll have a better run from Max King and hopefully Membrey is good to go but they're no sure thing.
Melbourne could delight or frustrate their supporters this year but I have question marks on their key forwards.
I even think the Swans might miss Buddy a bit more than many people expect.

[Grantysghost]

Saintsational.

I almost started a thread with a poll to have you removed as the admin of the site.

Think you've become Hindenburg and lost your ability to make good decisions ;)

[mjp]

Crows are up and coming and may make the 8

That's definitely another question I want to pose...who are the up-and-comers...

Next week maybe!

[ledge]

For me it’s the power . Dickson too old to be the scary forward anymore, huge loss.
Lycett gone not that I really rated him but he was good for them.
I see them as the same old front runners who fall apart with pressure and I don’t think they will have the amount of front runner games to go anywhere.
Powell-pepper is the only player with balls when the game is hard IMO.

[mjp]

Powell-pepper is the only player with balls when the game is hard IMO.

You don't like Butters mate?

[mighty_west]

Saints, Port, Swans and Dees for mine, not saying they'll all drop out but probably from last years top 8 have the most issues, think GWS could go a step further, really rate their coach and as a club, finally look to be playing team footy rather than just a bunch of individual stars.

Dogs, Crows and "Suns could surprise a few", have the talent by spades but now have a good hard edge coach, are realistically the only three i can see that can push up, possibly Geelong as they rarely get beaten at Kardinia Park.

[ledge]

You don't like Butters mate?

He is awesome but you don’t see that scary look or hard hits like PP when the opposition start to get over the top.

[whythelongface]

All the top 8 are vulnerable with the exception of Brisbane.

Giants and Carlton now have high expectations. Can they sustain this momentum going into ?24. Blues more likely to drop back a notch. Borderline 8 for both.

Pies have been awesome but others have pointed out an ageing list (with genuine young guns) plus no KPF - can they sustain their high pressure game. Probably. But may struggle a little.

Saints, Swans and Port over rated. Expect all to drop out of the 8. Hinkley sacked. Longmire on life support and Lyon to be knighted.

Dees - who knows. Oliver has issues. Struggling with their forward line. Unless Schache fires I expect them to be fringe 8.

Brisbane should be favourites and will be minor premiers. Only one team can stop them and we know who they are.

[Dry Rot]

I reckon at least two of these three sides will drop out of the 8: Power, Demons, Saints.

I reckon at least two of these three sides will make the 8: Dogs, Crows, Suns.

[Dry Rot]

If Hamling can regain some form and plug one of the holes with their tall defenders, I reckon the Swans will do better this season with the other traded recruits and natural development of their younger players.

[mjp]

I reckon at least two of these three sides will drop out of the 8: Power, Demons, Saints.


But why??

2 of those were top 4 last year?

[Dry Rot]

But why??

2 of those were top 4 last year?

My possible 3 to go out

Port - ladder position belied their overall mediocre team - will be found out this year

Demons - off field shit will catch up with them, I reckon I saw the very start of the beginning of the end for Gawn last season

Saints - see Port above and threats from teams below

My possible 3 to go in

Crows looked hot when on, more consistency may get them into the 8, and certainly threaten the three teams above.

The Suns will be an interesting test for Hardwick. If he can make them click, they certainly they have stacks of talent and would threaten the three times above.

Hopefully the Dogs can iron out whatever went wrong last season and this preseason at their remodelled ground and hopefully a good run of lack injuries will also threaten the three teams above.

[Twodogs]

Melbourne. They've been falling away for two years after winning a flag by beating up on a team that had played all over Australia in the previous month while they sat in their hotel rooms and watched.

THE most overrated team I've ever seen. I have every confidence they will implode this year and prove how brittle they are.

[mjp]

Melbourne.

Geez...they were the best team I saw last year and I am really struggling to understand why everyone says they will fall...

I get the cultural 'stuff' but when I asked that question a couple of weeks back most people seemed to say "They'll be right"...

[mjp]

Port - ladder position belied their overall mediocre team - will be found out this year


What's mediocre about them mate?

I just look at that midfield and think they're a hard out every week...and they have young, talented key forwards...I guess they battle for KEY defenders guys like Bergman are pretty handy.

[jeemak]

In 2023 we were apparently the suckiest team that ever sucked and still only finished one game and 5% from claiming fifth on the ladder. I kind of agree with WTLF in that everyone maybe aside from Brisbane is vulnerable due to their home ground advantage.

[Dry Rot]

What's mediocre about them mate?



They seem to be flat track bullies to me. When the going got tough, they hardly covered themselves in glory in the finals last season.

[Mantis]

He is awesome but you don?t see that scary look or hard hits like PP when the opposition start to get over the top.

How many hard hits does PP produce each year? Wouldn?t be more than 2 or 3.

And you seriously believe players are concerned about how an opposing player is looking at them? This ain?t under 10?s.

[GVGjr]

Geez...they were the best team I saw last year and I am really struggling to understand why everyone says they will fall...

I get the cultural 'stuff' but when I asked that question a couple of weeks back most people seemed to say "They'll be right"...

I think Brisbane has the strongest and deepest list in the competition but outside of them a lot of team in the 8 could be vulnerable but history would say at best 2 teams come out. That sort of indicates the lowest placed teams in St Kilda and Sydney as the most likely but if Melbourne can't shake these internal challenges with distracted players despite having plenty of quality players they could fall but it's an outside chance.

[ledge]

How many hard hits does PP produce each year? Wouldn?t be more than 2 or 3.

And you seriously believe players are concerned about how an opposing player is looking at them? This ain?t under 10?s.

He is the one they use if they want to get into a players head, he is the one who will give that extra niggle, I don?t see any other player do it when they aren?t going well.
You still get soft footballers at AFL level.
Listen to player interviews you get hints of getting inside a players head.
If coaches can get into a players head to play well I?m sure you can get into a players head to put them off .

[Mofra]

Melbourne the most vulnerable.
No Oliver, no forward line, no ruck depth. They could be anywhere from 1st to 15th.

Sydney got Grundy but Adams too. I think they'll be stronger.

Once the Flea magic wears off at Collingwood the fall will come quickly. I doubt it will be this year though.

If Weitering has an interrupted year - and an early calf injury to a senior player is a worry - they could be vulnerable. They seem to be stronger in 2024 on every other line though.

Most years since the 90s a team from outside the 8 the previous year makes the top 4 the following year. It really could be us.

[Happy Days]

I think Collingwood will be really good again? They added a really nice piece in Schultz and didn’t really lose anything (Adams is spent I think), have what is now the best back 6 in the league, and have considerable room for growth in their young talent. Also they have Nick Daicos who should probably be banned from competitive play.

Saints are a fictional team and Port went with the classic Peter Rhode subtraction by addition approach to “bolster” their back 6. I could see and in fact think they will both be missing.

[Sedat]

I think Collingwood will be really good again? They added a really nice piece in Schultz and didn’t really lose anything (Adams is spent I think), have what is now the best back 6 in the league, and have considerable room for growth in their young talent. Also they have Nick Daicos who should probably be banned from competitive play.
Collingwood 2023 age profile is eerily similar to Geelong 2022. And they don't have a Hawkins/Cameron combo up forward.

The rest of the competition eventually has to catch up with them tactically. They simply cannot keep winning virtually every single close game like they've done for 2 years. McStay out for the season will hurt them. Mihocek is honest but lacks class. And reaching the summit will have to impact many of their players, like it did for Geelong a year earlier (and for us in 2016) - I can see guys like Bobby Hill doing a Stengle this year, and the older guys like Howe are just relieved to have one in the back pocket. It only takes being 5% off and not being completely dog hungry for them to unravel.

[ledge]

Collingwood 2023 age profile is eerily similar to Geelong 2022. And they don't have a Hawkins/Cameron combo up forward.

The rest of the competition eventually has to catch up with them tactically. They simply cannot keep winning virtually every single close game like they've done for 2 years. McStay out for the season will hurt them. Mihocek is honest but lacks class. And reaching the summit will have to impact many of their players, like it did for Geelong a year earlier (and for us in 2016) - I can see guys like Bobby Hill doing a Stengle this year, and the older guys like Howe are just relieved to have one in the back pocket. It only takes being 5% off and not being completely dog hungry for them to unravel.

Wow I thought they were a young side . I get your point but all of Geelongs mids were getting old as well. The pies have young guns in the right places to keep the pressure on .

[Mantis]

Wow I thought they were a young side . I get your point but all of Geelongs mids were getting old as well. The pies have young guns in the right places to keep the pressure on .

Who are their young guns?

[ledge]

Who are their young guns?

Quick count 19 players 25 and under.
Lipinski, Quaynor, Daicos Hill ,Krueger , Macrae , Murphy, Mc Creary . That’s a pretty good bunch and already most have finals experience
They are all going to start to take over if they haven’t already.
Can’t see them dropping.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Pies to drop but I think they still make the 8. Older list and Lady luck can't go on forever. I get the argument it isn't luck, somewhat agree, but to do it 3 years in a row with an ageing list would be nothing short of a miracle.

Brisbane are primed.

Carlton and GWS aren't far behind.

Sydney are overrated. Where do the goals come from and who are their key backs besides McCartin? Adams is cooked and Grundy ain't the same.

Port rely too heavily on too few and if Charlie remains injury prone/slowing down I'm not convinced they have the fire power to contend. Susceptible down back too.

Saints are well drilled but they made the 8 because we shat the bed. Their talent is lacking.

Us and Adelaide simply must make the 8 and anything less results in vacant head coach roles. As much as we shot ourselves in the foot, the stats suggest Adelaide invented a way to miss finals too.

[Jasper]

I often read here about our lack of height particularly in the back line group but week after week Collingwood have Nathan Murphy at just 192c as their fullback and Jeremy Howe at 190c as a key defender and they don't get burned by it. Sure Moore is a big athletic boy but what do Collingwood do differently to us that means their defenders supposed lack of height doesn't result in opposition key forward kicking big scores on them and do we actually have a problem with our defenders height?
I can't see Collingwood sliding much so top 4 for me. Brisbane, Port and Carlton then us GWS and Melbourne with one spot open for the Saints, Swans, Suns or Crows.

[Mantis]

Quick count 19 players 25 and under.
Lipinski, Quaynor, Daicos Hill ,Krueger , Macrae , Murphy, Mc Creary . That’s a pretty good bunch and already most have finals experience
They are all going to start to take over if they haven’t already.
Can’t see them dropping.

If more than half of those players listed constitute a young gun then we are a long way from being aligned on the definition.

[hujsh]

If more than half of those players listed constitute a young gun then we are a long way from being aligned on the definition.

With that criteria the 2016 Dogs team is full of young guns and will have a great 2017

[ledge]

With that criteria the 2016 Dogs team is full of young guns and will have a great 2017

Difference is the pies haven’t got a couple of bad apples upsetting the cart .
deGoey has matured.
They are very much team orientated .

[Sedat]

If more than half of those players listed constitute a young gun then we are a long way from being aligned on the definition.
N Daicos is an obvious jet and Quaynor is excellent as well (although he is loose when defending). I would have said J Daicos prior to Sept 2023 but his finals series was horrible (still a very good player). Draw the line there on their young talent - it's pretty thin.

[JanLorMill]

If Hamling can regain some form and plug one of the holes with their tall defenders, I reckon the Swans will do better this season with the other traded recruits and natural development of their younger players.
Hamling needs to get on the park first.

[DadBod]

Gotta put my money on the Saints and maybe Swans. I think us and Suns take their place. I think the Saints will be worked out and won't get the run they did last year and were largely found wanting in the end. Swans, I'm just not convinced on.

[kllay4]

Usually there are at least 2-3 teams that drop out of the 8.

My guess is:

Port - Controversial but they went out in straight sets. Apart from a gun midfield of Rozee and Butters, I do not rate. Expect them to trend downwards at the very least.

Saints - Had a great 2023 run under Lyon but many things went their way. List quality is the greatest concern as they do not have many notable star players

[GVGjr]

Gotta put my money on the Saints and maybe Swans. I think us and Suns take their place. I think the Saints will be worked out and won't get the run they did last year and were largely found wanting in the end. Swans, I'm just not convinced on.

Welcome back.

Given their list the Saints out performed most peoples expectation last season and certainly bringing in Lyon and the new assistants really worked out well for them. They also had a significant level of injuries to key players so do they get a kick out of a fit Max King and Tim Membrey returning or will they get worked out a bit by opposition coaches?
I suspect they will slide just a bit but they do appears to be getting a lot of things right on and off the field.

[GVGjr]

Usually there are at least 2-3 teams that drop out of the 8.

My guess is:

Port - Controversial but they went out in straight sets. Apart from a gun midfield of Rozee and Butters, I do not rate. Expect them to trend downwards at the very least.

Saints - Had a great 2023 run under Lyon but many things went their way. List quality is the greatest concern as they do not have many notable star players

Don't Port have a lot of emerging players though? Mids like Horne-Francis, Rozee, Butters, Drew and even Ollie Wines make it a strong outfit. Marshall, Dixon, Finlayson and Georgiades as key forwards and now Zerk-Thatcher and Ratogulea joining their back lines. They don't appear to have a lot of holes in their list.

[Go_Dogs]

I went the popular option of Saints.

They?re an even and well drilled side but think they lack the talent and growth to stay up with a few bolsters coming in hot. I think GWS could drop a bit (they?re still quite reliant on some older players like Ward and Coniglio who could drop away / be injured, and it would be great to watch Toby Greene lose more games.

Swans an interesting one. Think they?re a bit light on with their key pillars and if Warner has another quieter year, they?ll struggle. A few of their older types maybe starting to slow down some. Grundy a big unknown.

Port could do literally anything however think between home ground advantage and their midfield / running brigade they should be around the mark. Query their talls this year too.

Pies, Lions, Dee?s, Blues are all locks for me and probably the top 4.

[Go_Dogs]

N Daicos is an obvious jet and Quaynor is excellent as well (although he is loose when defending). I would have said J Daicos prior to Sept 2023 but his finals series was horrible (still a very good player). Draw the line there on their young talent - it's pretty thin.

Bobby Hill goes ok too.

[mighty_west]

N Daicos is an obvious jet and Quaynor is excellent as well (although he is loose when defending). I would have said J Daicos prior to Sept 2023 but his finals series was horrible (still a very good player). Draw the line there on their young talent - it's pretty thin.

For mine :

Quaynor, J.Daicos, N.Daicos, Hill, McCreery - young guns

Lipinski - Needs good players around him, good on his day as we all know but is also a whipping boy for Pies supporters which says something, would still be in and out of the team at the Dogs imo.

Allan and MacRae are the other two - who could be but unknown at this stage and have yet to proven themselves

No idea on the rest of their young players, Krueger from what i've seen is ok but nothing special, Geelong went alot harder to keep Ratugolea than Krueger.

I still have them top 4

[hujsh]

For mine :

Quaynor, J.Daicos, N.Daicos, Hill, McCreery - young guns

Lipinski - Needs good players around him, good on his day as we all know but is also a whipping boy for Pies supporters which says something, would still be in and out of the team at the Dogs imo.

Allan and MacRae are the other two - who could be but unknown at this stage and have yet to proven themselves

No idea on the rest of their young players, Krueger from what i've seen is ok but nothing special, Geelong went alot harder to keep Ratugolea than Krueger.

I still have them top 4

What do we consider to be young? Hill feels young but he's 23 which is still kinda young but not really for non KPP. His 33 goals is impressive but that's padded a lot by his very good finals series and was just 23 in the regular season which is better for comparing with say Weightman who is also 23 and has kicked more goals than that every year from 2021 onwards.

Lipinksi is also 25 so not young by any football measure IMO. Quaynor is 24, J.Daicos 25 and McCreary 22. So these guys all should be around somewhere not far off their prime.

[jeemak]

19 to 21 - anyone's guess, but obviously young
22 to 25 - young but should be well established by the end of the bracket (injury or opportunity notwithstanding)
26 to 29 - prime
30+ - veteran

There's always crossover between the brackets, and outliers. Player profile impacts it as well (talls taking longer for instance), most players physically mature around 18-21 or thereabouts, but cognitively take a while longer (up to 24-25). So if you're not matured on both fronts and playing against people who are, then I guess you kind of have to be considered young?

There's absolute freak players that come along each year that buck the trends and get all the focus, we tend to forget how the journey usually plays out if players are able to stay in the system for a full career.

I read in another thread criticism of JUH and his effectiveness at 21, it may have been misconstrued at my end but the guy is just coming into the time where he should be establishing himself into a career and he's kicked 35-35 last year. On the other hand we've got Rhylee West coming into his sixth year and turning 24, moving into the area where he's got to be establishing himself or he'll be passed over unless kept for depth. To me Rhylee is still relatively young, but kind of isn't at the same time.

[Dogstyler]

Something is a bit stinky at Melbourne, if Oliver and Brayshaw don?t get on the park or continue to have limited pre seasons I can see them being the slider. They appear to have lost a lot of depth too in Grundy, Harmes, Jordan, Joel Smith etc

[bulldogsthru&thru]

As it stands right now (and it's early), 5 of the 6 teams we play twice this year are the top 5. The only team that isn't is north.

If we make finals this year we will certainly have earned it.