Robbo: Why Tim English isn't worth $1 million to the Western Bulldogs

[Axe Man]

Robbo: Why Tim English isn?t worth $1 million to the Western Bulldogs (https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/robbo-why-tim-english-isnt-worth-1-million-to-the-western-bulldogs/news-story/44af4a6c885418edcb9eb535704e1bea)

https://i.postimg.cc/j2tK88ng/english.jpg (https://postimages.org/)

Tim English is coming off an All-Australian season, but is he really worth $1 million a year? MARK ROBINSON says he isn?t to the Western Bulldogs.

Tim English might be worth $1 million-a-season at West Coast, but he isn?t at the Western Bulldogs.

It makes for an intriguing next few months, as both English and the Bulldogs decide if his future beyond 2024 is at the kennel.

The Bulldogs can either pay him what he wants or take a stand, knowing that if it?s the latter, the real possibility is they could lose him through free agency.

Would that be so catastrophic?

They want him to stay, but it has to be at their price and not his.

A Bulldogs package of $750,000 base with incentives could bunk him up, but for a bloke who finished seventh in the 2023 best and fairest, an unconditional $1 million salary to stay is difficult to rationalise.

Put it this way, when the whips were cracking in the second half of last season, and the Bulldogs were striving to play finals, English polled coaches? votes in just one of the final nine games.

Coaches? votes generally have a spread of between six and eight players in each game and, according to the men who know who was a threat, English only once was a significant contributor in that period.

A million-dollar player can?t just be a solid contributor, he has to be a game-changer.

Too often English is not. It?s why the million-dollar price tag doesn?t equate to performance.

In the wacky world of player salaries, Kieren Briggs from the GWS Giants will earn about $350,000 this year.

The bustling Briggs doesn?t have the ruckman?s finesse, which English possesses at centre bounces, but their performances comparatively suggest Briggs is vastly underpaid ? or English will be overpaid.

Briggs doubled English in the average clearance count last year, won more contested possessions and marginally trailed in score involvements, although English did kick 16 goals to Briggs? four.

Rowan Marshall?s stats at St Kilda stack up even better against English, and Marshall is an estimated $750,000 player.

The Bulldogs say they are comfortable with discussions with English?s management.

?There is definite confidence that Tim will remain at the Bulldogs,? chief executive Ameet Bains told afl.com.au this week.

?Sam Power continues to have ongoing and current discussions with Tim?s manager, Andrew McDougall. We haven?t received any indication other than Tim being happy at the club.??

In other words, Bains doesn?t know if English is staying or going.

A restricted free agent at the end of the season, popular opinion has West Coast coming for the 26-year-old. If that happens, the Bulldogs can match the Eagles? offer (they won?t), which then means a trade ensues.

If the Eagles finish bottom, the Dogs will ask for the No.1 pick in return.

The Bulldogs need midfielders. The game seems to have zoomed past Jack Macrae; Bailey Smith might leave; and Tom Liberatore, back in the Dogs? leadership group, is 31 years old.

English for the best midfielder on the draft boards is not a loss, and with Sam Darcy a possible English replacement, or at least working in tandem with Rory Lobb, the Dogs aren?t without ruck options.

Another gun onballer ? to join this year?s first-round draftee Ryley Sanders ? would also replenish the middle of the ground.

The Dogs have hand, but they also have issues.

Marcus Bontempelli is on $1 million-plus and deservedly so. Aaron Naughton is in for eight years on gold coin and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is the next cab off the rank, meaning those three players alone will take close to $3 million of the $17.7 million salary cap in 2025.

That leaves English and Bailey Smith. Can the Dogs afford to keep both of them?

Not if they have to pay English his asking price.

English is a good player, the All-Australian ruckman last year, but to think he is likely to be paid more than Melbourne captain Max Gawn, the competitions? best ruckman of the past decade, is a little mind-boggling, notwithstanding the largesses of free agency.

Especially so when you peruse recent premiership teams and who they had as their No.1 ruckmen.

Are ruckmen really worth $1 million a year?

[Axe Man]

I think Slobbo is ignoring the salary cap uplift over the next couple of seasons.

[Bulldog4life]

I think Slobbo is ignoring the salary cap uplift over the next couple of seasons.

On purpose?

[JanLorMill]

He is right

[Mofra]

I'm happy to stand firm on Timmy, provided we have a replacement lined up if he walks.

Given we have Lobb and from next year, a more developed Darcy as excellent number 2 forward/rucks, we need a mature no 1 ruck lined up and we could get away with a 60-70% TOG bash and crash type.
Ned Moyle would be my first pick (Suns have Witts and just took Read at the pointy end of the draft) and Preuss would surely jump at the chance to be a no 1 ruck as a 2-3 year stop gap solution.

[hujsh]

I think the point about the coaches votes is decent.

[jeemak]

It's interesting how it's OK for him to be overrated and worth a lot of money on the open market, but to us isn't worth 80-90% of what he might get even though we've shown over time he's exactly the type of ruck we are looking for and value. And don't have a viable, long term replacement who can step into his role in 2025.

The same pundits who suggest Lobb should be the interim fill in are the same people who will lambaste his performance given first ruck isn't his go. Those same pundits think Darcy is ready to go even though as Mofra has pointed out previously, he's not been able to get on the park outside of a few flashes.

That's all without thinking about who is available, and who our coach might want to actually play, in replacement of English which is a complete unknown to us right now.

So with all of that, irrespective of the coaches votes or whatever, I'd say the read on this is arse about and English is worth a lot more to us right now than is being touted. Our risk profile is off the charts, and with risk comes cost.

[bornadog]

Briggs? who the F is Briggs. Tim beats him in every department



Player Statistics Comparison





Timothy English (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pp-western-bulldogs--timothy-english)
Name
Kieren Briggs (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pp-greater-western-sydney-giants--kieren-briggs)


Western Bulldogs (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/th-western-bulldogs)
Team
GWS Giants (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/th-greater-western-sydney-giants)


Ruck
Position
Ruck


108
Career Games
26


South Fremantle
Origin
Pennant Hills


August 10, 1997
Date of Birth
October 6, 1999


26yr 6mth
Age
24yr 4mth


208cm
Height
201cm


107kg
Weight
108kg


2016 National Draft (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_drafts?year=2016&t=N&s=P)
Last Drafted In
2018 National Draft (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_drafts?year=2018&t=N&s=P)


Round 1, Pick #19
Last Draft Position
Round 2, Pick #34


Western Bulldogs (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/th-western-bulldogs)
Last Drafted By
GWS Giants (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/th-greater-western-sydney-giants)


2023
Stats for Season
2023


23
Games
17


11.2
Kicks
9.7


7.9
Handballs
5.7


19.1
Disposals
15.4


6.3
Marks
2.8


0.7
Goals
0.2


0.2
Behinds
0.3


4.3
Tackles
4.5


31.2
Hitouts
25.9


3.2
Inside 50s
3.8


0.3
Goal Assists
0.4


1.8
Frees For
1.3


1.5
Frees Against
1.2


9.2
Contested Possessions
10.7


11.0
Uncontested Possessions
4.3


13.9
Effective Disposals
9.3


72.8%
Disposal Efficiency %
60.4%


3.6
Clangers
3.4


1.3
Contested Marks
0.7


0.6
Marks Inside 50
0.2


3.3
Clearances
6.5


1.9
Rebound 50s
1.8


4.3
One Percenters
3.5


0.3
Bounces
0


85.9
Time On Ground %
75.6


1.2
Centre Clearances
2.5


2.1
Stoppage Clearances
4.0


5.3
Score Involvements
4.4


255.0
Metres Gained
263.4


3.3
Turnovers
2.8


4.3
Intercepts
2.6


0.4
Tackles Inside 50
0.4


$1,071,000
AFL Fantasy Price
$849,000


118.7
AFL Fantasy Score
92.2


$683,000
Supercoach Price
$573,800


128.0
Supercoach Score
105.2

[bornadog]

A players worth is what the market will pay, and Tim would get $1 million in the market.

[Grantysghost]

People.

Robbo is tapping into a sentiment the analytics pick up from socials.

They get spoon fed the "sentiments".

Kieren Briggs is the Jordan Sweet of Jordan Sweets. That comparison wasn't accidental.

[angelopetraglia]

What do we make of this interview https://x.com/cleary_mitch/status/1757704041159856132?s=46&t=oMlyiNHry1lhUs8p7uzZ_A

He doesn?t sound too committed to Dogs ?

[Grantysghost]

What do we make of this interview https://x.com/cleary_mitch/status/1757704041159856132?s=46&t=oMlyiNHry1lhUs8p7uzZ_A

He doesn?t sound too committed to Dogs ?
Macrae dumped...

Flogs.

[Grantysghost]

A players worth is what the market will pay, and Tim would get $1 million in the market.

It's ok BAD we have a long line of back up rucks so he's not worth that to the Dogs.

-Hi I'm a bot I have worked out what nuffies on social media want to hear and spoon feed them that narrative.

[jeemak]

What do we make of this interview https://x.com/cleary_mitch/status/1757704041159856132?s=46&t=oMlyiNHry1lhUs8p7uzZ_A

He doesn?t sound too committed to Dogs ?

I'm leaving it up to my manager so you don't ask me anymore questions on it.

If Jacko was dumped, why was Libba only promoted instead of whatever the opposite of dumped is?

[GVGjr]

I think Slobbo is ignoring the salary cap uplift over the next couple of seasons.

It's the reason why that within 2 years there will be close to 40 players on million dollar contracts. At the moment we will stand out because of Bont, Naughton, Tim and Marra but other teams will have that challenge.
Going on the news report from Ch9 the Eagles have either offered a multi year million dollar contract or will make that offer.
I'm sure the club and Sam Power will do what they can but within reason and if Tim really wants to head home and play for a bottom club that won't get better quickly then there isn't much we can do about it.

[Mofra]

People.

Robbo is tapping into a sentiment the analytics pick up from socials.

They get spoon fed the "sentiments".

Kieren Briggs is the Jordan Sweet of Jordan Sweets. That comparison wasn't accidental.
Briggs is good but last year (second half really) was the first extended showing of decent form at AFL level. He'll be West Coast's first ruck this year off the back of a few months of exposed form so even taking a 'cheap' ruck is a big risk.

FWIW Timmy was 6th in the comp for average hit outs per game. Not bad considering it's often claimed that actual ruckwork is his weakness.

[jeemak]

Briggs is good but last year (second half really) was the first extended showing of decent form at AFL level. He'll be West Coast's first ruck this year off the back of a few months of exposed form so even taking a 'cheap' ruck is a big risk.

FWIW Timmy was 6th in the comp for average hit outs per game. Not bad considering it's often claimed that actual ruckwork is his weakness.

BAD has a hit outs to advantage ranking that is even more impressive than that, I'll leave it to him to post it.

[ledge]

Didn’t Tim say he enjoyed being at the dogs and wasn’t looking to move last year ?
Personally I don’t think he is going anywhere.

[bornadog]

BAD has a hit outs to advantage ranking that is even more impressive than that, I'll leave it to him to post it.

Based on 20 plus matches he was 3rd on average per game, just .6 below 2nd.

[Vred]

You do everything you can to keep him but don't sell the farm, and yes, I agree, not worth a million.

Luxury player, don't think his winning us grand finals.

Also his concussion history scares the crap outta me.

[jeemak]

You do everything you can to keep him but don't sell the farm, and yes, I agree, not worth a million.

Luxury player, don't think his winning us grand finals.

Also his concussion history scares the crap outta me.

If he's offered $1.1M p.a. to $1.2M p.a. does the club offer him $950K p.a. (assuming comparable contract lengths across both parties) and feel good about missing him?

On those numbers we're offering 83% of what the market is willing to pay. Would you stay at your job for that?

If he's offered $1.2M p.a. to $1.3M p.a. at $950K p.a. we're at 75% of the market rate. Bumping that up to $1M p.a. in each instance puts us within 80% to 87% and only comes at a premium of an additional $1.25K p.a. per listed player.

It'd be madness not to go there to keep him, and if Sam can't find that money then what's he there for given how quickly we drop away after our top and second tier earners.

[GVGjr]

If he's offered $1.1M p.a. to $1.2M p.a. does the club offer him $950K p.a. (assuming comparable contract lengths across both parties) and feel good about missing him?

On those numbers we're offering 83% of what the market is willing to pay. Would you stay at your job for that?

If he's offered $1.2M p.a. to $1.3M p.a. at $950K p.a. we're at 75% of the market rate. Bumping that up to $1M p.a. in each instance puts us within 80% to 87% and only comes at a premium of an additional $1.25K p.a. per listed player.

It'd be madness not to go there to keep him, and if Sam can't find that money then what's he there for given how quickly we drop away after our top and second tier earners.

You make a lot of sense with how you mapped out this scenario but I'm probably a bit different to most because I wouldn't walk away from a job that I like especially at that level of money but would happily consider best offers from elsewhere if I wasn't happy. We should put in a very competitive offer but not go a lot over what we think is the maximum. There is always a bit of wiggle room.

Using your scenario, what if we think Tim is worth 900K to 1M a year over 5 years but the Eagles weigh in with 1.3 to 1.4M for 6 years? Would you still feel comfortable with the club pushing it to that level?
I get the market is the market but we certainly don't have to get into an auction with the Eagles and Tim.

[jeemak]

You make a lot of sense with how you mapped out this scenario but I'm probably a bit different to most because I wouldn't walk away from a job that I like especially at that level of money but would happily consider best offers from elsewhere if I wasn't happy. We should put in a very competitive offer but not go a lot over what we think is the maximum. There is always a bit of wiggle room.

Using your scenario, what if we think Tim is worth 900K to 1M a year over 5 years but the Eagles weigh in with 1.3 to 1.4M for 6 years? Would you still feel comfortable with the club pushing it to that level?
I get the market is the market but we certainly don't have to get into an auction with the Eagles and Tim.

If the Eagles were offering him that, I'd let him go. That's too much for my taste, and I think it would be for most. YoY we're trying to pay him 70% vs. the market, contract length it's 59% of what he could leave for. If we tried that we're in Cal Ward territory and sitting ducks for being picked apart - not just by our own players but also those we're trying to attract (not to mention the media).

But, we need to get our heads out of what the perception in the media thinks is big money, largely driven by players who never made it when they were playing and have a beef about it. Every ex-player commenting thinks the money is outrageous, and it wasn't that long ago we were all patting ourselves on the back for picking up Tom Boyd (actually, it was almost a decade ago!!!!) for roughly $1M a season, unproven, and thumbing our nose at the media rhetoric. Lambasting people like Leigh Matthews for wanting a young player to fail.

What I'm reading here to me is madness given how much we don't like basic rucks, how good English is, and how little an extra $100K or so has on our TTP in the scheme of things.

We can all pick an arbitrary number we think he's worth, but until the market gives a signal it's bullshit. Whether that's $900K today, $1.05M tomorrow. Saying we won't do this or that is silly because the contingencies are unknown and the risk is off the charts.

And sorry G the above isn't meant to be a crack at your stance. I agree there has to be a discount for staying put, that's how the market works. I guess what I'm saying is that discount can't be too big because the days of Chris Grant turning down Port money or whatever are gone (unless you play for Geelong......).

[GVGjr]

Fully agree Jeemak, while I rate Tim I wouldn't let the Eagles or anyone else for that matter push up the asking price much beyond what I was prepared to pay. Tim should be fully compensated for his talents and what he brings the team. Who knows how hard we are prepared to fight for him but I can't imagine we will go much over our max assessment of him. Power understands the market and how to manage our salary cap and I'd back him to do the right thing for the club and player. It probably won't get done as early as any of us would like but it's the nature of the beast at the moment.

[Axe Man]

Briggs is good but last year (second half really) was the first extended showing of decent form at AFL level. He'll be West Coast's first ruck this year off the back of a few months of exposed form so even taking a 'cheap' ruck is a big risk.

FWIW Timmy was 6th in the comp for average hit outs per game. Not bad considering it's often claimed that actual ruckwork is his weakness.

Flynn went to West Coast, Briggs is still at GWS having signed a 2 year extension in September.

[Grantysghost]

Now we can't afford to lose him XD

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1076405/listen-why-the-dogs-cant-afford-to-lose-english

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

I don't have much to add, but once again loving the discussion.
Some really interesting points of view.

I really like the way you've analysed the situation Jee.

I'm confident that we won't sell the farm to keep Tim, and to that end I'm sure Power and Co have games scenario's of what it might look like were Tim to get a monster offer, and how we might respond.

[bornadog]

Tim is worth every cent of $1 million plus. He is more than just a ruckman, he is a midfielder in a 208cm body. He can float back and take marks, he can be parked in the forward line if need be, and moves around the ground with ease and his ruck work has put him in the top 5 of the AFL (top 3 for hit outs to advantage).

I said a long time ago that he will take time to mature, but it was always evident (to me), that he had the talent to be a star.

Come on Dogs!, get the deal done.

[hujsh]

What I'm reading here to me is madness given how much we don't like basic rucks, how good English is, and how little an extra $100K or so has on our TTP in the scheme of things.

I can't find anyone saying to let him go over an extra 100k, everyone just has different ideas of what he's worth and what they think the club should pay. I doubt Vred (as one of the few examples in this thread with a valuation of his salary) saying he's a 950K player and what you're saying is actually that different and if he stays for 1-1.1 mil I doubt Vred or many here will lambast the club for the extra 50-150K p.a

I think we all seem to generally agree that he's worth around the 1mil a year ballpark and that 1.3-4 is probably too high a risk, especially if it's a 6 year contract (speculation) as a player in a position that has a lot of physical impact and a history of concussion issues.

[GVGjr]

I can't find anyone saying to let him go over an extra 100k, everyone just has different ideas of what he's worth and what they think the club should pay. I doubt Vred (as one of the few examples in this thread with a valuation of his salary) saying he's a 950K player and what you're saying is actually that different and if he stays for 1-1.1 mil I doubt Vred or many here will lambast the club for the extra 50-150K p.a

I think we all seem to generally agree that he's worth around the 1mil a year ballpark and that 1.3-4 is probably too high a risk, especially if it's a 6 year contract (speculation) as a player in a position that has a lot of physical impact and a history of concussion issues.

Commonsense will prevail and as I mentioned before there is always a bit of wiggle room for a quality footballer and person like Tim.

[Sedat]

Tim is worth every cent of $1 million plus. He is more than just a ruckman, he is a midfielder in a 208cm body. He can float back and take marks, he can be parked in the forward line if need be, and moves around the ground with ease and his ruck work has put him in the top 5 of the AFL (top 3 for hit outs to advantage).

I said a long time ago that he will take time to mature, but it was always evident (to me), that he had the talent to be a star.

Come on Dogs!, get the deal done.
He had a breakout season last year without question - he took some big strides forward in his ruck craft, which was a real obvious and very costly weakness against the better rucks in previous seasons.

Playing devil's advocate, did we win finals or even challenge the big dogs in 2023? We weren't even close. Now of course that's not English's fault, but team success is so much more than one player excelling in their position. A good comparison is Grundy leaving Collingwood and they previously brought in a workhorse like Darcy Cameron as cover - Cameron is a premiership player and Grundy is onto his 3rd club in 3 seasons. Now we don't have a proven Cameron ruck type on our list at the moment (unless Lobb can change his perspective on more ruck minutes), so it places us in a crap list management/salary cap situation regarding English right here and now.

I'd prefer we kept English but it needs to be in line with our salary cap and he also needs to take a haircut for the incredible (and honestly misplaced at the time) faith that the club has put into him as a no 1 ruckman for many years. This faith has cost us so badly in key finals (and a GF), and IMO English should repay this enormous faith by taking what would still be a very generous contract but at the lower end that he would otherwise command on the open market. He's a sub $1m a season for mine.

Perfect world is that we win the flag in 2024 and English raises his game even further and becomes a premiership hero. If he then chose to take a godfather offer from a West Coast, it would be with all our blessing and we would be compensated accordingly - but we would have needed to shore up an immediate plan B.

[Mantis]

He had a breakout season last year without question - he took some big strides forward in his ruck craft, which was a real obvious and very costly weakness against the better rucks in previous seasons.

Playing devil's advocate, did we win finals or even challenge the big dogs in 2023? We weren't even close. Now of course that's not English's fault, but team success is so much more than one player excelling in their position. A good comparison is Grundy leaving Collingwood and they previously brought in a workhorse like Darcy Cameron as cover - Cameron is a premiership player and Grundy is onto his 3rd club in 3 seasons. Now we don't have a proven Cameron ruck type on our list at the moment (unless Lobb can change his perspective on more ruck minutes), so it places us in a crap list management/salary cap situation regarding English right here and now.

I'd prefer we kept English but it needs to be in line with our salary cap and he also needs to take a haircut for the incredible (and honestly misplaced at the time) faith that the club has put into him as a no 1 ruckman for many years. This faith has cost us so badly in key finals (and a GF), and IMO English should repay this enormous faith by taking what would still be a very generous contract but at the lower end that he would otherwise command on the open market. He's a sub $1m a season for mine.

Perfect world is that we win the flag in 2024 and English raises his game even further and becomes a premiership hero. If he then chose to take a godfather offer from a West Coast, it would be with all our blessing and we would be compensated accordingly - but we would have needed to shore up an immediate plan B.

He might have had a breakout season, but still only finished 7th in our B & F.

We probably over-worked him in the 1st part of the year and paid the price for it with his drop off in form late, but if he wants to get paid like the best...well he needs to perform to that level over the entire season.

[Topdog]

I'd be gutted to lose Big Timmy, it was always going to take him longer to have consistent big games as he started off with such a small frame. He is entering the prime of his career now and I'm confident he will be worth $1m a season during this contract even though he probably isnt right now (in my opinion).

[Bullies]

I think the other advantage we have is that none of the other top MEL clubs will be making a play for English with the kind of money being thrown about. If they were to have those kind of funds available they would target a top of the range mid or key position player. By all accounts he loves Melbourne. Eagles will throw the sink at him and we won't be able to compete with the offer but not everyone wants to train in 40 degrees throughout the Summer. The other advantage we now have are our training facilities which are state of the art.

[hujsh]

I think the other advantage we have is that none of the other top MEL clubs will be making a play for English with the kind of money being thrown about. If they were to have those kind of funds available they would target a top of the range mid or key position player. By all accounts he loves Melbourne and was raised in country VIC. Eagles will throw the sink at him and we won't be able to compete with the offer but not everyone wants to train in 40 degrees throughout the Summer. The other advantage we now have are our training facilities which are state of the art.

His partner has also moved to Melbourne now and I'd imagine the prospect of splitting back up would not be an appealing one.

[Axe Man]

I think the other advantage we have is that none of the other top MEL clubs will be making a play for English with the kind of money being thrown about. If they were to have those kind of funds available they would target a top of the range mid or key position player. By all accounts he loves Melbourne and was raised in country VIC. Eagles will throw the sink at him and we won't be able to compete with the offer but not everyone wants to train in 40 degrees throughout the Summer. The other advantage we now have are our training facilities which are state of the art.

Do you mean country WA?

[Bullies]

Do you mean country WA? He was brought up in Traralgon i think until he was 13.

[Axe Man]

He was brought up in Traralgon i think until he was 13.

I'm fairly certain that isn't true. Born and raised around Pingelly, south east of Perth. I'm sure MJP can confirm.

Perhaps you are thinking of Naughton who grew up in Frankston before the family moved to WA?

[Bullies]

I'm fairly certain that isn't true. Born and raised around Pingelly, south east of Perth. I'm sure MJP can confirm.

Perhaps you are thinking of Naughton who grew up in Frankston before the family moved to WA? My bad it was Naughton

[ReLoad]

I'd prefer we kept English but it needs to be in line with our salary cap and he also needs to take a haircut for the incredible (and honestly misplaced at the time) faith that the club has put into him as a no 1 ruckman for many years. This faith has cost us so badly in key finals (and a GF), and IMO English should repay this enormous faith by taking what would still be a very generous contract but at the lower end that he would otherwise command on the open market. He's a sub $1m a season for mine.

I'm totally on board with what you're saying, however in today's day and age, there is no way a person will go - I know you've looked after me in the past, but i can now make X, why wouldn't they? Footballers in particular are a single head knock away from loosing their livelihood, but they have to make hay while the sun shines.

Personally i think hes worth 850-900k a year. especially with the large salary cap increases that are looming.

a 3-4 year deal on this kind of money with total free agency for him afterwards is a good result "to pay it back to us for what we've put into him" and reward for the "now"

West Coke are going to have to cough up big time to get him over there. If he hasn't signed by July hes gone.

[Bulldog Joe]

I'm totally on board with what you're saying, however in today's day and age, there is no way a person will go - I know you've looked after me in the past, but i can now make X, why wouldn't they? Footballers in particular are a single head knock away from loosing their livelihood, but they have to make hay while the sun shines.

Personally i think hes worth 850-900k a year. especially with the large salary cap increases that are looming.

a 3-4 year deal on this kind of money with total free agency for him afterwards is a good result "to pay it back to us for what we've put into him" and reward for the "now"

West Coke are going to have to cough up big time to get him over there. If he hasn't signed by July hes gone.

If i am Andrew MacDougall I am definitely looking at length of contract as much as quantum. The concussion issues make that an imperative.

[bornadog]

I'm totally on board with what you're saying, however in today's day and age, there is no way a person will go - I know you've looked after me in the past, but i can now make X, why wouldn't they? Footballers in particular are a single head knock away from loosing their livelihood, but they have to make hay while the sun shines.

Personally i think hes worth 850-900k a year. especially with the large salary cap increases that are looming.

a 3-4 year deal on this kind of money with total free agency for him afterwards is a good result "to pay it back to us for what we've put into him" and reward for the "now"

West Coke are going to have to cough up big time to get him over there. If he hasn't signed by July hes gone.

The other thing is who wants to play for WC. They are years away from playing any finals at all.

You have to enjoy your job and also get paid well. Losing every week, is not fun

[MrMahatma]

Seeing that Channel 7 clip, I reckon he’s gone.

[soupman]

I think he's worth it. The concussion issues worry me, but that's about it.

I just think he is hard to replace, and by losing him we don't come out enough ahead imo.

If he leaves what do we get? $1M salary, and a RFA compensation pick, or we force the trade and get not pick 1 because there is no way anybody actually trades that, so either one very good pick and change or a bunch of solid but not great picks.

So either a pick in the teens...yay.
Or one very good pick, say pick 5, which we could use on a young kid who could be anything, they could even one day be as good as English.
Or three picks in the teens, which is fine and all, but thats what GWS got for Jeremy Cameron and they ended up with Bruhn, Angwin and Stone. I expect if they were given the option retrospectively to take an extra $300K hit than what they wanted to spend to their salary cap to keep Cameron (I don't think he left for salary reasons anyway but it illustrates the point).

Sweet, so sure the trade compo isn't amazing, but what does that extra money mean for us? Surely the $1M is going to revolutionise our list?

Well probably not. From all reports we aren't spending it all anyway, so it isn't desperately needed "cap relief" even with JUH and Bailey coming ooc.

Ah yes so lets spend it on an area of need. Except how? First we have to find a ruck that doesn't make us that much worse. We have two on the list but Darcy is basically the English scenario 6 years removed...we know he is going to be a gun, but he won't get there for ages, and Lobb has barely justified his place in the side in his preferred position and has one half against Geelong doing all the heavy lifting for the "I think Lobb would be a decent option for a year" believers.

So we need to find another, convince them to come across by offering extra money, and then make a trade happen. We can jump on the ruck merry go round i guess, and hope we end up with the good one. I mean Hickey is the only good discard ruck to have changed hands in years, otherwise we get to play with our Braydon Preuss or cooked Stef Martin or Callum Coleman Jones. But at least that option is cheap and we keep the picks we get for English and maybe $500K. Otherwise we try and make the big offer to the emerging talent, like Draper and Marshall both attracted (something north of $600K for no gamers).

We could go for a gun ruck (I don't even know who tbh) but then you are effectively trading English for a different ruck without making much of a profit if at all.

So yeah I'd much rather keep English, even if it's for slightly more than we'd like, because the cost to replace him effectively nullifies most of the benefits of losing him.

And if it all goes to shit well Collingwood are a pretty good example for how you can lose your highly paid star ruckman who suddenly dropped off the cliff and not need it to be the reason you aren't good as a team anymore.

[FrediKanoute]

I'm totally on board with what you're saying, however in today's day and age, there is no way a person will go - I know you've looked after me in the past, but i can now make X, why wouldn't they? Footballers in particular are a single head knock away from loosing their livelihood, but they have to make hay while the sun shines.

Personally i think hes worth 850-900k a year. especially with the large salary cap increases that are looming.

a 3-4 year deal on this kind of money with total free agency for him afterwards is a good result "to pay it back to us for what we've put into him" and reward for the "now"

West Coke are going to have to cough up big time to get him over there. If he hasn't signed by July hes gone.

Because sometimes making X and never playing a flag or not playing finals is just not worth the money sacrifice. Eagles are 3 years from finals and whilst anything can happen, probably 5 years from flag contenders. English will be over 30 having shouldered the ruck in a developing team. Toll on his body; toll on his mental health would be enormous.

Personally I think her will stay. Will be a million plus deal, but he will stay.

[Bulldog Joe]

The other thing is who wants to play for WC. They are years away from playing any finals at all.

You have to enjoy your job and also get paid well. Losing every week, is not fun

West Coast won't stay down for an extended period. They just don't.

They will be contending before Tim's career is over and he would lift them more quickly.

If it is us or West Coast the chance for success won't keep him. Their record is much better than ours.

[Happy Days]

I’d be happy to pay him $1.1m. The “ruckmen don’t win premierships” bit is stupid when you think about it for more than 10 seconds. Collingwood just won a flag with Billy Frampton actively sabotaging their forward line yet no one is clamouring to underpay Marra.

Tim is a stud and would be impossible to replace.

[Go_Dogs]

I?m most interested in what Robbo has said some other rucks are getting paid. Based on what mjp has said before, rucks (even average ones) get paid a kings ransom. I?m just trying to work out what part of that doesn?t stack up? If we can get a viable replacement for $350k, English wants $1.3m, and we?d get a massive compensation offer, it certainly gives us something to think about if Timmy is adamant he wants the $$$.

Who knows if he?s solely driven by $$$ (I expect not) so I?m kinda with Jee on this that a deal ultimately gets done for a very good offer with some incentives (but not the best offer he may get either duration or $$$ wise).

Timmy still has some growth in his game and I hope we balance ruck load / forward load more evenly which could see him become a 30 goal a year player and keep him a bit fresher for the pointy end of the year.

[jeemak]

I can't find anyone saying to let him go over an extra 100k, everyone just has different ideas of what he's worth and what they think the club should pay. I doubt Vred (as one of the few examples in this thread with a valuation of his salary) saying he's a 950K player and what you're saying is actually that different and if he stays for 1-1.1 mil I doubt Vred or many here will lambast the club for the extra 50-150K p.a

I think we all seem to generally agree that he's worth around the 1mil a year ballpark and that 1.3-4 is probably too high a risk, especially if it's a 6 year contract (speculation) as a player in a position that has a lot of physical impact and a history of concussion issues.

How's this look, now you've quantitatively assessed how people value him via your poll thread?

[hujsh]

How's this look, now you've quantitatively assessed how people value him via your poll thread?

I've got to admit I'm surprised how many people are saying under a million. Unless the plan is to lose Tim but keep Smith I think that's an offer that's prepared to lose him and I'm not sure we get back something we're happy with. Especially if people consider that their max offer. I thought I was a Tim doubter but I guess I'm in the top 6 of WOOFers as far as the salary I'd be willing to offer him (dependent on contract length and other offers we have to contend with).

Personally I'd be willing to do more to keep English over Smith if we're losing someone. Assuming Jamarra stays of course

[Sedat]

I'm totally on board with what you're saying, however in today's day and age, there is no way a person will go - I know you've looked after me in the past, but i can now make X, why wouldn't they? Footballers in particular are a single head knock away from loosing their livelihood, but they have to make hay while the sun shines.

Personally i think hes worth 850-900k a year. especially with the large salary cap increases that are looming.

a 3-4 year deal on this kind of money with total free agency for him afterwards is a good result "to pay it back to us for what we've put into him" and reward for the "now"

West Coke are going to have to cough up big time to get him over there. If he hasn't signed by July hes gone.
There have been enough recent examples of groups of players who collectively all take a hair-cut to stay together and achieve the ultimate team success. Hawks, Geelong and Richmond all did this to a degree.

Speaking for myself, if English now decides to screw the club down after everything we have given to him in relation to the frankly undeserved 1st ruck opportunities he was given as far back as 2019, for me it would be a dog move. I am realistic that in today's era it is more likely than not, but it still doesn't sit well with me.

His complete and utter inability to impact at all as the big dog 1st ruck cost us enormously in finals in 2019, 2020 and 2021 - especially in 2020 EF and 2021 GF the ruck/stoppage/clearance battle was absolutely critical in torching us. He has turned the corner in his ruck craft, but it still concerns me when a banged up old clydesdale like Scott Lycett can still thoroughly intimidate English in his AA 2023 season. Should we be dedicating $1.2-$1.4m a season for a player who has not yet cemented his reputation when it matters (notwithstanding his concussion concerns)? Gee that is a big price to pay.

[Mofra]

I?m most interested in what Robbo has said some other rucks are getting paid. Based on what mjp has said before, rucks (even average ones) get paid a kings ransom. I?m just trying to work out what part of that doesn?t stack up? If we can get a viable replacement for $350k, English wants $1.3m, and we?d get a massive compensation offer, it certainly gives us something to think about if Timmy is adamant he wants the $$$.

Who knows if he?s solely driven by $$$ (I expect not) so I?m kinda with Jee on this that a deal ultimately gets done for a very good offer with some incentives (but not the best offer he may get either duration or $$$ wise).

Timmy still has some growth in his game and I hope we balance ruck load / forward load more evenly which could see him become a 30 goal a year player and keep him a bit fresher for the pointy end of the year.
Average salary is $400k pa (ish) and rucks on AFL lists are rare so even your average ruck is probably on pretty healthy coin. Clear no 1 rucks moreso.
The MSD has basically wiped out the pool of 'next tier' rucks who aren't on AFL lists too. The wheel seems to be turning again and now we're back to seeing rucks being drafted in the main draft.

[54Bulldog16]

The focus recently has shifted to should we keep Lobb and Darcy and let English go via FA or forced trade. For me, if we are picking which 2 of the 3 we should be keeping, it?s English and Darcy every day of the week. Trade Lobb, grab a second rounder, use $200k of his salary to bump English up, use the remaining $350k to address other list needs.

[Grantysghost]

Lobb played one good game against us and somehow we decided to recruit him.

Strange. He's never felt settled.

[jeemak]

Lobb in his last year with Freo played 97.6% TOG as the main forward. With us last year he played 85.2% as the third.

His output across every metric other than goals per game was pretty much the same (1.2 vs. 1.7) but nobody can figure out why.......it genuinely boggles the mind.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=8&playerStatus2=A&tid2=8&type=A&pid1=3946&pid2=3946&fid1=S&fid2=P&fopt2=2022

I get some of his efforts weren't where we'd have liked them, and I get sometimes he looked confused. But so did Bruce when he started with us and the reason why is because we play a difficult system for forwards to immediately fit into.

But don't worry about any of that, let's as a footy public just whip him without any of the boring and mitigating context. It's more fun that way.

[Go_Dogs]

Lobb in his last year with Freo played 97.6% TOG as the main forward. With us last year he played 85.2% as the third.

His output across every metric other than goals per game was pretty much the same (1.2 vs. 1.7) but nobody can figure out why.......it genuinely boggles the mind.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=8&playerStatus2=A&tid2=8&type=A&pid1=3946&pid2=3946&fid1=S&fid2=P&fopt2=2022

I get some of his efforts weren't where we'd have liked them, and I get sometimes he looked confused. But so did Bruce when he started with us and the reason why is because we play a difficult system for forwards to immediately fit into.

But don't worry about any of that, let's as a footy public just whip him without any of the boring and mitigating context. It's more fun that way.

Agreed. Much more fun.


Quite optimistic about Lobb this year. Interesting the media narrative is starting to build around Darcy taking his spot. I mean, sure, it could happen, but I hope we find room for both. If it’s only one, it’s hard to see it not being Lobb who gets first crack.

[Grantysghost]

Lobb in his last year with Freo played 97.6% TOG as the main forward. With us last year he played 85.2% as the third.

His output across every metric other than goals per game was pretty much the same (1.2 vs. 1.7) but nobody can figure out why.......it genuinely boggles the mind.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=8&playerStatus2=A&tid2=8&type=A&pid1=3946&pid2=3946&fid1=S&fid2=P&fopt2=2022

I get some of his efforts weren't where we'd have liked them, and I get sometimes he looked confused. But so did Bruce when he started with us and the reason why is because we play a difficult system for forwards to immediately fit into.

But don't worry about any of that, let's as a footy public just whip him without any of the boring and mitigating context. It's more fun that way.

That injury in pre season did him no favours also. He was dropped to the reserves which is pretty huge for big recruit. The competition is good to have let's hope he can have a big season. Personally I was never sold on the recruitment but he's our man now.

[mjp]

West Coast won't stay down for an extended period. They just don't.

They will be contending before Tim's career is over and he would lift them more quickly.

If it is us or West Coast the chance for success won't keep him. Their record is much better than ours.

What's an extended period?

[JanLorMill]

The focus recently has shifted to should we keep Lobb and Darcy and let English go via FA or forced trade. For me, if we are picking which 2 of the 3 we should be keeping, it?s English and Darcy every day of the week. Trade Lobb, grab a second rounder, use $200k of his salary to bump English up, use the remaining $350k to address other list needs.
We ain’t getting a second rounder for Lobb and given he is contracted next year we probably have to take some of the salary. 100/1 shot.

[jazzadogs]

Lobb in his last year with Freo played 97.6% TOG as the main forward. With us last year he played 85.2% as the third.

His output across every metric other than goals per game was pretty much the same (1.2 vs. 1.7) but nobody can figure out why.......it genuinely boggles the mind.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?playerStatus1=A&tid1=8&playerStatus2=A&tid2=8&type=A&pid1=3946&pid2=3946&fid1=S&fid2=P&fopt2=2022

I get some of his efforts weren't where we'd have liked them, and I get sometimes he looked confused. But so did Bruce when he started with us and the reason why is because we play a difficult system for forwards to immediately fit into.

But don't worry about any of that, let's as a footy public just whip him without any of the boring and mitigating context. It's more fun that way.

This does conveniently ignore that he got dropped. His start to the season was poor, and he improved as the year went on. I'd imagine those averages would be heavily weighted towards the second half of the year.

I was happy with his end to the season and see a clear role for him moving forward - but there is also significant pressure on him from Darcy, which I hope elevates him to an even higher level.

[mjp]

This does conveniently ignore that he got dropped. His start to the season was poor, and he improved as the year went on. I'd imagine those averages would be heavily weighted towards the second half of the year.

I was happy with his end to the season and see a clear role for him moving forward - but there is also significant pressure on him from Darcy, which I hope elevates him to an even higher level.

If you listen to the ESPN pod from this week where they go through the new C:D stat for 100x, well - Lobb rated better as a ruck than a forward last year.