Nobody believes in us. Are they right?

[mjp]

Not sure if I'm over thinking this but pretty much every preview I read has us finishing closer to the bottom 4 than the top 4. The latest one today (ESPN) said in closing:
=======
Most likely: The Bulldogs continue to be heavily reliant on midfield stars Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore, while Aaron Naughton remains one of the most inconsistent forwards in the game. With that said, they enter the final two rounds of the season in 10th place and still alive for an unlikely finals berth.
=======
Source: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/38789554/afl-2024-every-club-best-case-worst-case-most-likely-scenario#Western%20Bulldogs

Pretty sure the Herald Sun had us finishing 13th yesterday but I can't find the link today.

Are ALL the pundits right? Wrong? Should we be getting a little MORE credit for the past few years or a little less? To me, our draw seems 'fine', we seem to have added a couple of good recruits (Sanders and Coffield) and some decent depth (Harmes and Bramble) and both our mids and forwards seem to be verging on 'elite'. Yeah, I have some concerns down the other end but no doubting the ability of Jones, Richards and Dale...not EVERY player in the 22 can be AA-quality.

I guess I sorta guess why we aren't trusted - but even when we LOST games in 2023 it wasn't like we were getting smashed...there were a few defensive collapses (yep, disappointing) but they also implied we had first built sizeable leads. So clearly the ability is there.

I'm usually glass half empty but 13th? Man.

[Grantysghost]

I guess we finished 9th with our best players having awesome years.
For the first time since 2016 im actually not super expectant for this season.

Losing close games, yeah i guess but youre still losing.

My worry as always has been the very shakey defence and where is the improvement coming from?

Sanders yep.... Marra....?

[Happy Days]

Not believing =/= not being good.

We could easily be good but we’ve done nothing in 2 years to make anyone “believe” in us. I get it.

[GVGjr]

Not sure if I'm over thinking this but pretty much every preview I read has us finishing closer to the bottom 4 than the top 4. The latest one today (ESPN) said in closing:
=======
Most likely: The Bulldogs continue to be heavily reliant on midfield stars Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore, while Aaron Naughton remains one of the most inconsistent forwards in the game. With that said, they enter the final two rounds of the season in 10th place and still alive for an unlikely finals berth.
=======
Source: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/38789554/afl-2024-every-club-best-case-worst-case-most-likely-scenario#Western%20Bulldogs

Pretty sure the Herald Sun had us finishing 13th yesterday but I can't find the link today.

Are ALL the pundits right? Wrong? Should we be getting a little MORE credit for the past few years or a little less? To me, our draw seems 'fine', we seem to have added a couple of good recruits (Sanders and Coffield) and some decent depth (Harmes and Bramble) and both our mids and forwards seem to be verging on 'elite'. Yeah, I have some concerns down the other end but no doubting the ability of Jones, Richards and Dale...not EVERY player in the 22 can be AA-quality.

I guess I sorta guess why we aren't trusted - but even when we LOST games in 2023 it wasn't like we were getting smashed...there were a few defensive collapses (yep, disappointing) but they also implied we had first built sizeable leads. So clearly the ability is there.

I'm usually glass half empty but 13th? Man.

This is Mark Robinson vie on our chances this year

13th: Western Bulldogs

Like them but I always wonder what would happen if, God forbid, Bontempelli falls over? Consequently, there is doubt about midfield depth. With Ugle-Hagan older, and Lobb and Sam Darcy as support, could it finally be the right time for Naughton to go back? They need an interceptor and Jamarra just might be able to handle the No.1 mantle in the F50.

[Grantysghost]

Naughton back.... No way. That's out of the blue! /s

[Bulldog Joe]

Clearly none of the media commentariat trust us.

We did lose games we should not have lost, but if we held on against GWS in Ballarat (when 2 tall defenders Bruce and Keath go down AND the other Gardner is so banged up he doesn't play the next week) we are in finals and GWS miss.

The same media commentariat all tip GWS as top 4.

Have they improved their list, because our list looks to be better.

With all that, I am still struggling to trust us.

If our game plan is right and our effort is there we can win the whole thing.

[GVGjr]

Not sure if I'm over thinking this but pretty much every preview I read has us finishing closer to the bottom 4 than the top 4. The latest one today (ESPN) said in closing:
=======
Most likely: The Bulldogs continue to be heavily reliant on midfield stars Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore, while Aaron Naughton remains one of the most inconsistent forwards in the game. With that said, they enter the final two rounds of the season in 10th place and still alive for an unlikely finals berth.
=======
Source: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/38789554/afl-2024-every-club-best-case-worst-case-most-likely-scenario#Western%20Bulldogs

Pretty sure the Herald Sun had us finishing 13th yesterday but I can't find the link today.

Are ALL the pundits right? Wrong? Should we be getting a little MORE credit for the past few years or a little less? To me, our draw seems 'fine', we seem to have added a couple of good recruits (Sanders and Coffield) and some decent depth (Harmes and Bramble) and both our mids and forwards seem to be verging on 'elite'. Yeah, I have some concerns down the other end but no doubting the ability of Jones, Richards and Dale...not EVERY player in the 22 can be AA-quality.

I guess I sorta guess why we aren't trusted - but even when we LOST games in 2023 it wasn't like we were getting smashed...there were a few defensive collapses (yep, disappointing) but they also implied we had first built sizeable leads. So clearly the ability is there.

I'm usually glass half empty but 13th? Man.

Yep I get what that many in the media don't trust us but some of the other teams they are favoring over us are hardly pillars of positivity for the season ahead.

I've stated a few times how much further we are ahead of where we were 12 months back and I believe we have added a couple of good players to our list. With some natural progression with players like Ugle-Hagan, Darcy, West, Weightman and O'Donnell etc plus players like Lobb and Treloar are far fitter than 12 months back.

I look forward to some more positive stories coming out of the media about our chances throughout the season and if we can get off to a fast start it's going to be a hard for their negativity to continue.

[Grantysghost]

Clearly none of the media commentariat trust us.

We did lose games we should not have lost, but if we held on against GWS in Ballarat (when 2 tall defenders Bruce and Keath go down AND the other Gardner is so banged up he doesn't play the next week) we are in finals and GWS miss.

The same media commentariat all tip GWS as top 4.

Have they improved their list, because our list looks to be better.

With all that, I am still struggling to trust us.

If our game plan is right and our effort is there we can win the whole thing.
Gws are a very good side.

[bornadog]

Only Libby Birch in The Age picks us 4th. The rest of their writers have gone from 6th through to 13th, with the main bloke, Jake Nial, 10th

I really don't care about what these so called experts think.

[Grantysghost]

Only Libby Birch in The Age picks us 4th. The rest of their writers have gone from 6th through to 13th, with the main bloke, Jake Nial, 10th

I really don't care about what these so called experts think.
Where do you have us BAD? I have us 8th.

[bornadog]

Where do you have us BAD? I have us 8th.

Every year I say top 4, and gut says this is the year :D

[bulldogsthru&thru]

I think we're capable of finishing anywhere from 1st to 16th.

[Grantysghost]

I think we're capable of finishing anywhere from 1st to 16th.
Weve never finished first in the history of the club!

[Mofra]

A little more accurate goal kicking last year and we finish 6th.

It's rarely mentioned and I'm happy to stand alone on this, but I really think we'll improve based on our facilities alone. WO is far better than Skinner.

[bornadog]

Weve never finished first in the history of the club!

That is something I would love

[Rocket Science]

Surely these are the wholly earned consequences of spending the past two seasons taking whatever external respect and goodwill the club might've banked and promptly torching it in the saddest and most maddening ways imaginable?

The upshot being, perhaps we've now got everyone where we want them, taking us lightly, but why on earth would you trust us unless you're (a) hopelessly devoted, (b) a fool, or (c) given new and compelling reasons to?

Gonna be a fascinating first 6-8 weeks.

[kruder]

I really think we need a good start and a legitimate win against a contender to really lift the horizon of the group. I will always remember that win against the swans in 2015 that really had the players starting to believe what is possible.

I reckon this Melbourne game is more season defining than we all think.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

I think the combo of our flakiness over the past several seasons, and the fact that at this time of year when they're searching for column inches to fill, its not exactly sexy to the reader to have us predicted to challenge again.
As some have said here, I get the reservations on us, they're legit...but for many to have us so low??? I hope and do genuinely believe they media pre-season prognosticators are going to be really p1ssed off by season end when we prove their predictions wrong again, this time by over-performing according to their predictions.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Weve never finished first in the history of the club!

Yet we're capable of it! I don't think at all that it'll happen but at the same time it wouldn't surprise me if it did. I think the group has enough talent if everything goes right.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Surely these are the wholly earned consequences of spending the past two seasons taking whatever external respect and goodwill the club might've banked and promptly torching it in the saddest and most maddening ways imaginable?

The upshot being, perhaps we've now got everyone where we want them, taking us lightly, but why on earth would you trust us unless you're (a) hopelessly devoted, (b) a fool, or (c) given new and compelling reasons to?

Gonna be a fascinating first 6-8 weeks.

Yeah we've never succeeded under expectations. This is good stuff for us.

[josie]

I really think we need a good start and a legitimate win against a contender to really lift the horizon of the group. I will always remember that win against the swans in 2015 that really had the players starting to believe what is possible.

I reckon this Melbourne game is more season defining than we all think.

Yep. It?s not talent. It?s b/w the ears and whether Bevo can inspire and be ahead of the pack like he was in 2015/16. I?ve said this elsewhere but will mention it here again; we need some self belief, mongrel, & never give up attitude amongst more of the group (not just Libba, Bont, L Jones and Naughts).

[hujsh]

I really think we need a good start and a legitimate win against a contender to really lift the horizon of the group. I will always remember that win against the swans in 2015 that really had the players starting to believe what is possible.

I reckon this Melbourne game is more season defining than we all think.

Normally I'd agree but I think the one week head start is going to be a huge hurdle to overcome.

Us, Freo, Adelaide and North have been given a shit go of it since the AFL aren't even competent enough to account for Round 0 by having the round 1 feature other R0 teams playing themselves and those with a bye playing other bye teams.

[Funke disco]

Agree! The facilities, new coaching appointments and hopefully new game plan will have us fighting for top 4 most of the year in my opinion. I am ever the optimist but also understand that to win the whole thing we need to see an improvement from our defenders

[Bulldog Joe]

Gws are a very good side.

That seems to be the narrative and I don't disagree.

I am also not on top of what improvements they may have from 2023, but we have available Liam Jones, JOD, Coffield, Harmes, Sanders and Bramble who weren't with us for that Ballarat game we lost by 5 points.

[Grantysghost]

That seems to be the narrative and I don't disagree.

I am also not on top of what improvements they may have from 2023, but we have available Liam Jones, JOD, Coffield, Harmes, Sanders and Bramble who weren't with us for that Ballarat game we lost by 5 points.

Think you've just told the story inadvertently.

[Grantysghost]

Surely these are the wholly earned consequences of spending the past two seasons taking whatever external respect and goodwill the club might've banked and promptly torching it in the saddest and most maddening ways imaginable?

The upshot being, perhaps we've now got everyone where we want them, taking us lightly, but why on earth would you trust us unless you're (a) hopelessly devoted, (b) a fool, or (c) given new and compelling reasons to?

Gonna be a fascinating first 6-8 weeks.

Yes, I can't see a logical argument that says we are a contender.

[Rocket Science]

Yes, I can't see a logical argument that says we are a contender.

Yeah. I'm struck with so many structural question marks viewing the list and beyond a reorganisation of the brains trust, modest improvements to our depth and (hopefully) reapplying ourselves with some newfound fire in the belly I'm not sure what's substantively better to be satisfied we're somehow now primed to impact finals.

Our backline in particular remains total nightmare fuel after Richards and Jones and I just dunno how we mitigate that.

Not long til we find out ...

[azabob]

Gws are a very good side.

They are. It will be interesting if they can be consistent throughout the year or will they rely on a run of games again?

Having said all that they do give off Dogs 2015/16 and Pies 2022/23 vibes.

[jeemak]

I really don't care what the duplicitous punditry thinks of our prospects.

Last year we were apparently a disaster without it being acknowledged we were a win and a small amount of percentage out of fifth spot, we had no continuity in our defensive personnel and therefore structures, had a compromised preseason and got unlucky with injury in a couple of crucial games.

On the flip side those who merely won a game more than us were marvelous success stories and beacons of great hope.

It's another year, the same people who had no clue at the start of last year have no clue at the start of this year. There's no point in letting those doomsayers ruin a season before it's already started. They'll do their best to take as much joy out of the season as they possibly can once it's underway.

[Mantis]

Gws are a very good side.

They are... but we made them look ****ing ordinary for 2/3 of the game in Ballarat last year until we had no defence.

I make no excuse for our awful performances against Hawthorn & WC, but IF we don't lose Kaeth & Bruce we win that game by 40+ and GWS don't make finals.

[Grantysghost]

They are. It will be interesting if they can be consistent throughout the year or will they rely on a run of games again?

Having said all that they do give off Dogs 2015/16 and Pies 2022/23 vibes.

Tom Green is maybe their Bont. What a player.

[Grantysghost]

They are... but we made them look ****ing ordinary for 2/3 of the game in Ballarat last year until we had no defence.

I make no excuse for our awful performances against Hawthorn & WC, but IF we don't lose Kaeth & Bruce we win that game by 40+ and GWS don't make finals.

40+ is very generous. We stopped dead like we have with full sides, we always find an excuse from somewhere.

[Grantysghost]

I really don't care what the duplicitous punditry thinks of our prospects.

Last year we were apparently a disaster without it being acknowledged we were a win and a small amount of percentage out of fifth spot, we had no continuity in our defensive personnel and therefore structures, had a compromised preseason and got unlucky with injury in a couple of crucial games.

On the flip side those who merely won a game more than us were marvelous success stories and beacons of great hope.

It's another year, the same people who had no clue at the start of last year have no clue at the start of this year. There's no point in letting those doomsayers ruin a season before it's already started. They'll do their best to take as much joy out of the season as they possibly can once it's underway.

Where do you think we will finish Jee to the mak?

[Go_Dogs]

I like that no one is rating our chances. Hopefully we can fly under the radar a little and surprise a few. We?ve got a decent start to the season, so we can position ourselves well and prove all of these spuds with no idea wrong.

[josie]

I like that no one is rating our chances. Hopefully we can fly under the radar a little and surprise a few. We?ve got a decent start to the season, so we can position ourselves well and prove all of these spuds with no idea wrong.

Agree. In my time following dogs we play better as underdogs.

[jeemak]

Where do you think we will finish Jee to the mak?

Anywhere from 4-12. 5-8 most likely.

I don't see how we're worse this year after the changes to training and facilities, relative fitness/ lack of injuries and an update in personnel in areas of need and the coaching panel.

We were horrible in all of the above and still nearly made finals in 2023. Too much has been made of the demise of both Macrae and Daniel, I think Harmes and Sanders playing helps offset the loss of Smith. Outside of that players are either even keel or capable of imporoving (English, Naughton, JUH, Weightman, Richards, JOD and West are few that come to mind) while the profile of the list suggests others may surprise.

All of it could go to shit of course, you never know. But it's just footy and I'm going to try and approach the season (outside of the game day thread of course) as it comes without paying too much attention to simplistic media analysis, hot takes or narratives.

[hujsh]

Anywhere from 4-12. 5-8 most likely.

I don't see how we're worse this year after the changes to training and facilities, relative fitness/ lack of injuries and an update in personnel in areas of need and the coaching panel.

We were horrible in all of the above and still nearly made finals in 2023. Too much has been made of the demise of both Macrae and Daniel, I think Harmes and Sanders playing helps offset the loss of Smith. Outside of that players are either even keel or capable of imporoving (English, Naughton, JUH, Weightman, Richards, JOD and West are few that come to mind) while the profile of the list suggests others may surprise.

All of it could go to shit of course, you never know. But it's just footy and I'm going to try and approach the season (outside of the game day thread of course) as it comes without paying too much attention to simplistic media analysis, hot takes or narratives.

I'm starting to think Harmes is a straight up replacement for Macrae, same role but better suited to the forward stuff and brings a point of difference with defensive intent in the middle.

Sanders probably fills the Smith role which, with the exception of 2-3 games last year, I'd back him to cover that output.

Daniel, I don't know what his role is last year because he did pretty much everything so it's harder to really tick a particular box for him. Likewise I'm not sure what it is he's not bringing now that has him potentially missing round 1.

[Grantysghost]

Agree. In my time following dogs we play better as underdogs.
Very true josie!

[Jasper]

Robbo can get stuffed. Most in the media have it wrong. We may not be as strong as we all hope but we will be better than many so called experts believe.

[Eastdog]

I kind of like it. Will come out firing.

[jeemak]

I'm starting to think Harmes is a straight up replacement for Macrae, same role but better suited to the forward stuff and brings a point of difference with defensive intent in the middle.

Sanders probably fills the Smith role which, with the exception of 2-3 games last year, I'd back him to cover that output.

Daniel, I don't know what his role is last year because he did pretty much everything so it's harder to really tick a particular box for him. Likewise I'm not sure what it is he's not bringing now that has him potentially missing round 1.

He may have lost it but I do think Macrae can be disciplined if fit and motivated when playing in the midfield. I also think if we want to move the footy quickly he's one guy I want the ball in the hands of. His kicking is underrated between the arcs, directionally nobody is as creative as he is with their kicking.

Unless Daniel hasn't met some benchmarks from a fitness perspective I think it's ridiculous someone with his skill and versatility could be left out. Not playing him smacks of looking at what he doesn't offer versus what he does, and I'd hate to think we'd be going down that path because to me doing so means the path of blandness and regimented footy is being prioritised over creativity - and that's not what we need.

If we want the ball to move quickly from defence to attack via different areas of the ground then accurate and creative users need to be prioritised given our lack of highly skilled raw pace players. Macrae and Daniel are our best in this area as they don't hold the footy up, and move it on instinct backed by skill (we all remember Daniel Cross and his disposal efficiency......and the boring and easily defendable crap that came with it).

[my plums]

I really think we need a good start and a legitimate win against a contender to really lift the horizon of the group. I will always remember that win against the swans in 2015 that really had the players starting to believe what is possible.

I reckon this Melbourne game is more season defining than we all think.

I said in a different thread that Round 1 is just one game of 23, but after reading your post, I think it is indeed a massive almost season defining game. Not just for the club but the supporters also. I'm that scared of another round 1 pumping by the Dees. Would be a huge setback for me as a fan, and I'm assuming it would be quite scarring again for the playing group.

[jeemak]

I said in a different thread that Round 1 is just one game of 23, but after reading your post, I think it is indeed a massive almost season defining game. Not just for the club but the supporters also. I'm that scared of another round 1 pumping by the Dees. Would be a huge setback for me as a fan, and I'm assuming it would be quite scarring again for the playing group.

How much did our two beltings in rounds one and two of last year impact us? A lot, or not at all given we went on a very good run after them and it wasn't until the back half of the year that things went tits up.

What you said in the other thread was spot on, our round one game is just one of a long season and there's always opportunities to get going. I bloody hope we're not riding round one as a club.

[my plums]

How much did our two beltings in rounds one and two of last year impact us? A lot, or not at all given we went on a very good run after them and it wasn't until the back half of the year that things went tits up.

What you said in the other thread was spot on, our round one game is just one of a long season and there's always opportunities to get going. I bloody hope we're not riding round one as a club.

I hear you! Just hoping for a good account of ourselves in the early rounds to get rolling. Fear for the mental scars if the Dees can do what they please with us. We'll see.....

[jeemak]

I hear you! Just hoping for a good account of ourselves in the early rounds to get rolling. Fear for the mental scars if the Dees can do what they please with us. We'll see.....

I get it.

[Topdog]

How can anyone trust this team (believe in them)? You literally have no idea what you are going to get from quarter to quarter, let alone week to week and an entire season.

IF it clicks, IF we perform, IF we stop run ons, IF IF IF IF IF. Those are all trust issues

[Mantis]

40+ is very generous. We stopped dead like we have with full sides, we always find an excuse from somewhere.

We stopped because we had 2 injured players who would traditionally play 95% game time, and another one hobbled who plays similar minutes.

The rest had to pick up the slack and we ran out of petrol.

[ratsmac]

All I know know at this point of the season we are undefeated!

I don't know if it's just pre season and feeling fresh but my gut feeling is that we are going to give it a shake this year and make those so called experts look stupid by years end.

I think the Sanders and Darcy effect will energise the rest of the group. Also with the turn over of the coaching department will have big impact of on field performance. And as others have mentioned, the new Mission Whitten Oval must make coming to work a joy for the players.

And I think Bevo has a point to prove with the way he has been belted from pillar to post not only from the media but from the faithful also. I'm not saying it's without merit either but Bevo is a proud man and a real competitor and I get the feeling he has a fire in the belly this year that didn't look like it was there since 2021.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

This thread is interesting in what it says about Smith. It's almost like it's forgotten he'll miss the entire season. But are we forgetting that fact? I'd bet that if it was Naughton, Marra or English out for the year that most on here would write the season off. But not so much with Smith. We've got a guy who hasn't played a game replacing him and a lot of us think that's enough for us to make a decent charge in the finals. So what does all this say about Bailey? Do we really rate him as much as the hype?

[Bulldog Joe]

This thread is interesting in what it says about Smith. It's almost like it's forgotten he'll miss the entire season. But are we forgetting that fact? I'd bet that if it was Naughton, Marra or English out for the year that most on here would write the season off. But not so much with Smith. We've got a guy who hasn't played a game replacing him and a lot of us think that's enough for us to make a decent charge in the finals. So what does all this say about Bailey? Do we really rate him as much as the hype?

Well it is not just about Bailey Smith, although his output in 2023 was disappointing.

Yes we are happy that we have Sanders and probably expect his output will be close to what B Smith delivered in 2023.

Additionally, we are expecting Coffield, Harmes and perhaps Bramble to provide something better than our bottom 6 of 2023.

We also believe there will be improved output from Jamarra, JOD and Darcy with something from at least one of the 2022 draftees.

On balance I see us in a good place and it is incumbent on the coaches to have the list ready to compete and on the players to perform.

BRING IT ON!!

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Well it is not just about Bailey Smith, although his output in 2023 was disappointing.

Yes we are happy that we have Sanders and probably expect his output will be close to what B Smith delivered in 2023.

Additionally, we are expecting Coffield, Harmes and perhaps Bramble to provide something better than our bottom 6 of 2023.

We also believe there will be improved output from Jamarra, JOD and Darcy with something from at least one of the 2022 draftees.

On balance I see us in a good place and it is incumbent on the coaches to have the list ready to compete and on the players to perform.

BRING IT ON!!

With all that said then, would you offer a $1 million multi-year deal to Smith?

[mjp]

With all that said then, would you offer a $1 million multi-year deal to Smith?

I would.

I think he's worth more than footy to the club that he's playing for. He might not be a generational footballer but he is a 'brand' the likes of which the AFL has pretty much never seen. Having him in Bulldogs colours is good for ALL of our sponsors which is good for the club...

You just cant buy stuff like that.

[Bulldog Joe]

With all that said then, would you offer a $1 million multi-year deal to Smith?

Without claiming to be on top of player salaries I don't see how Baz is worth that.

We have several players warranting more salary.

About $700K is where I would see him.

[SonofScray]

I believe in us. And I am somebody.

Can?t blame outsiders for not believing, we?ve eroded a lot of trust in recent years, even in house. I know our best is good enough. I don?t know how often, or if we?ll see a lot of our best. But I have high expectations and I am maintaining them.

[Countrydog5]

I'm an eternal pessimist, and actually have us finishing maybe 10th this year on form. Like has been said, the teams performance for the last 3 years has really eroded my confidence in us making that leap into a real contender. I believe our issue is almost entirely between the ears, and our off season changes are unlikely drastic enough to really alter that for this season, no matter the individual performance of our guns.

I really believe our season hinges strongly on our first 4-6 weeks. If we perform well and get a roll on, we could do anything by building that belief that we belong at the top. If we struggle, I think we could really flop for the season, leading to my less than optimistic prediction. We should be going 4 and 1 to start the year at a minimum, and anything less will really put the pressure on.

I absolutely love the club and this team, and I want so badly for them to reach their massive potential. No matter what I will support them, but I can't help but feel our team is so dependent on good vibes that just one or 2 bad games can, and has, de-railed a season.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Without claiming to be on top of player salaries I don't see how Baz is worth that.

We have several players warranting more salary.

About $700K is where I would see him.

I don't disagree but I suspect we'd have to pay him in the vicinity of $1m in order to keep him.

Now to mjps point, he's worth more to the club than just the on field aspect. Do we sell our soul for this? He's a bloody hard contract to value. Doing his acl only complicates it further.

[GVGjr]

I would.

I think he's worth more than footy to the club that he's playing for. He might not be a generational footballer but he is a 'brand' the likes of which the AFL has pretty much never seen. Having him in Bulldogs colours is good for ALL of our sponsors which is good for the club...

You just cant buy stuff like that.

It's hard to balance the on and off field value a player might bring a club. Sure we all see it with Bontempelli as both a player, a leader and how the club might market him in terms of memberships/sponsorships etc but with Smith his value as a player is what most of us focus on and currently that is short of 1M a season. I'm not sure how this will play out but I suspect he will sign with us to FA because coming off the knee injury there might not be a lot of clubs willing to mortgage the farm for him. I guess it only takes one though

[Topdog]

I'm an eternal pessimist, and actually have us finishing maybe 10th this year on form. Like has been said, the teams performance for the last 3 years has really eroded my confidence in us making that leap into a real contender. I believe our issue is almost entirely between the ears, and our off season changes are unlikely drastic enough to really alter that for this season, no matter the individual performance of our guns.

I really believe our season hinges strongly on our first 4-6 weeks. If we perform well and get a roll on, we could do anything by building that belief that we belong at the top. If we struggle, I think we could really flop for the season, leading to my less than optimistic prediction. We should be going 4 and 1 to start the year at a minimum, and anything less will really put the pressure on.

I absolutely love the club and this team, and I want so badly for them to reach their massive potential. No matter what I will support them, but I can't help but feel our team is so dependent on good vibes that just one or 2 bad games can, and has, de-railed a season.

Yeah it's very hard to gauge what the team will do and that by itself is extremely frustrating.

I thought last year our start to the season would define it and at 7-3 after 10 games and having just won 5 in a row believed that we were absolutely primed for a big end before we disappointingly limped to the bye round and losing 3 of our next 4.

And yep we all absolutely love the club, as frustrating as they can be at times :)

[Axe Man]

I don't disagree but I suspect we'd have to pay him in the vicinity of $1m in order to keep him.

Now to mjps point, he's worth more to the club than just the on field aspect. Do we sell our soul for this? He's a bloody hard contract to value. Doing his acl only complicates it further.

I disagree. I can't see any club paying anywhere near $1 million, even before the ACL, regardless of his marketability.

If by some chance they do then goodbye and good luck Baz.

[MrMahatma]

The closer we get to Rd 1, the more my faith waivers.

I can?t see why anyone who isn?t a dogs fan would think we?re a better flag chance than Dees, Lions, Pies.

[Grantysghost]

I would.

I think he's worth more than footy to the club that he's playing for. He might not be a generational footballer but he is a 'brand' the likes of which the AFL has pretty much never seen. Having him in Bulldogs colours is good for ALL of our sponsors which is good for the club...

You just cant buy stuff like that.

Anna Kournikova or phwat.

Can't agree. He is simply not worth that much as a percentage of our cap. He had one really good finals series and since then has been nothing special. Now an ACL to go with it, 600-700 is what i'd be offering and I feel that's kind of generous.

[josie]

I'm an eternal pessimist, and actually have us finishing maybe 10th this year on form. Like has been said, the teams performance for the last 3 years has really eroded my confidence in us making that leap into a real contender. I believe our issue is almost entirely between the ears, and our off season changes are unlikely drastic enough to really alter that for this season, no matter the individual performance of our guns.

I really believe our season hinges strongly on our first 4-6 weeks. If we perform well and get a roll on, we could do anything by building that belief that we belong at the top. If we struggle, I think we could really flop for the season, leading to my less than optimistic prediction. We should be going 4 and 1 to start the year at a minimum, and anything less will really put the pressure on.

I absolutely love the club and this team, and I want so badly for them to reach their massive potential. No matter what I will support them, but I can't help but feel our team is so dependent on good vibes that just one or 2 bad games can, and has, de-railed a season.

Echoes my thoughts almost to a tee. I only differ a smidge in that the optimist in me thinks the off field changes might help trigger self belief, ability to respond to oppo run ons etc. Here?s hoping anyhow!! Time will tell.

[ratsmac]

Echoes my thoughts almost to a tee. I only differ a smidge in that the optimist in me thinks the off field changes might help trigger self belief, ability to respond to oppo run ons etc. Here?s hoping anyhow!! Time will tell.

It's the off field changes that will make the biggest difference this year for me. Now whether or not we have got the right people to the club and everything clicks together, only time will tell.

As a comparison when Richmond looked like their finals run was over when they finished 13th or something in 2016, Hardwick was under pressure much like Bevo, but Richmond chose to stick with Hardwick and just replace a lot of his assistants. They won 3 of the next 4 flags. I think we are better placed list wise than Richmond were back then, so it's a wait and see if we can get a similar swing in performance as them with a similar type of behind the scenes shake up

[Dazza]

We are a pretty untrustworthy side to be honest. Unexplainable losses towards the end of the season happens far more often than it should.

[comrade]

I was hoping we?d cash in last trade period, so I definitely wouldn?t be offering anything substantial to Baz. Let him take a deal elsewhere and use the picks to upgrade the holes in our list.

[MrMahatma]

I was hoping we?d cash in last trade period, so I definitely wouldn?t be offering anything substantial to Baz. Let him take a deal elsewhere and use the picks to upgrade the holes in our list.

Out of contract and coming off a knee reco. What "picks" are you thinking we're gonna get?

[Sedat]

Out of contract and coming off a knee reco. What "picks" are you thinking we're gonna get?
Smith still has massive currency due to his age, off-field marketability and the elite ceiling he has shown (particularly in finals) previously. The currency is not infinite, but right now it is still sky high.

[bornadog]

Are ALL the pundits right? Wrong?


"40 sets of football media tips about AFL 2024 on show during the past week, less than half (just 19) of them fancied the Bulldogs to even reach the final eight, much less win a premiership."

From ESPN Article

[mighty_west]

We need to be trusted again, we have lost everyone's trust especially after the end of last season, if i wasn't a passionate Dogs supporter, there is no way known i'd believe in the Dogs, like i don't believe in Essendon or Freo or North etc, we need to be trusted again before people start believing in us.

Us as passionate supporters pretty much know the in's and out's of the club, every little detail in what we recruited, the coaching turnaround, the players burning up the track over pre-season, the difference between training out at Skinners last year to back at home this year with new facilities, the fact we had quite a few players with next to no pre season's last year etc etc so we have reason to be optimistic, add that to the automatic hope we have this time of the year like all supporters.

[mjp]

"40 sets of football media tips about AFL 2024 on show during the past week, less than half (just 19) of them fancied the Bulldogs to even reach the final eight, much less win a premiership."

From ESPN Article

That was my impression hence the thread...

Routinely picked to finish 10th and below. There's a real stink on us because we have a group of players supporters of other clubs genuinely admire/respect.

[bornadog]

That was my impression hence the thread...

Routinely picked to finish 10th and below. There's a real stink on us because we have a group of players supporters of other clubs genuinely admire/respect.

I can never remember ever, Journos picking us for top 4

[Axe Man]

I can never remember ever, Journos picking us for top 4

Pretty sure plenty were picking us for the top 4 when we were finishing in the top 4 from 2008-10. Well not in 2008 as it was a surprise but from 2009-11.

Almost everybody would have had us finishing top 4 in 2017, that's probably where the trust issues stem from.

[Uninformed]

"40 sets of football media tips about AFL 2024 on show during the past week, less than half (just 19) of them fancied the Bulldogs to even reach the final eight, much less win a premiership."

From ESPN Article

Particularly good news. You can be absolutely certain that the conclusions of a majority of media figures will always be dead wrong. Not only wrong, but the exact opposite of what will actually happen.

Exactly what you want to see in the media because no sane person has any trust in the media.

Bevo confidimus!

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Yeah look I know I should probably have a whole lot of trepidation coming into the season, given our past issues, but I genuinely remain very upbeat about the direction of the club, and our prospects this year. I really think we're going to surprise quite a few pundits and fans alike.

Even the club produced behind the scene's type short video released today or yesterday reaffirms what I already knew. It's a well run club, with a very professional set of connected strategic and operational programs in place that flow down to the tiniest details, not to mention highly qualified and motivated staff.

This was evident from the discussion in the above mentioned club produced player development video about having a Bulldog's dictionary that is connected to different digital learning packages to make it easier for new players to quickly adopt and come to grips with he club IP, game plan, game situation expectations and roles and philosophy.

This should really produce some longer term benefits in helping speed up new players transition to what is required at Bulldogs AFL footy level.

Irrespective of what happens in the first round or two, I think we will have a top 4 season. I know, I'm a lunatic. But I just think the review and subsequent changes as well as the return to Whitten Oval this pre-season just might take the air out of the collective pressure the group has felt. Whether its a burden of unrealised expectations, I don't know, but I'm really hopeful we'll see a new breed emerge this season.

Just the arrival of Sanders and some nice showings from JUH, Dacy, Richards and Naughton this pre season give me confidence there is a new ceiling we can reach this year with impetus from the younger tier. This will finally spread the burden that our Skipper has largely tried to bare on his shoulders these last few years.

If others step up as I describe above it could even have the potential affect of helping Bontempelli reach another level again.

[kruder]

I can't remember a season that had so much riding it on it for so many at the club, so many potential story lines we are in the gun with the media they will be coming at us thick and fast if things go south quickly. One things for sure woof is going to be a very interesting place I kinda think like the side it will be on edge also, let's hope we can all keep it together but there is no doubt there is an underlying feeling of frustration with our last 2 years.

Happily say its the most talented group we have ever had but I've still got some serious concerns with our ability to defend, intercept and rebound from D50 while as we saw last week, continue to rely too much on Bont and Libba to get us going.

I think the Melbourne game will tell us a lot. I think we will make the 8( the hardest 8 to make ever?) but until we beat a legitimate contender like the players I will be more hoping than believing.

[AshMac]

I?m less concerned with our players and more concerned with our coaching staff and gameplan. We just rely too heavily on individual brilliance and have a lack of structure and flow through the middle of the ground.

Happy there were changes off-season - not enough for me personally

[WBFC4FFC]

I?m less concerned with our players and more concerned with our coaching staff and gameplan. We just rely too heavily on individual brilliance and have a lack of structure and flow through the middle of the ground.

Happy there were changes off-season - not enough for me personally

My concerns are similar, although I think they have done a heap of changes. All will be revealed I guess.

"For me" we do rely too much on "individual brilliance". Sacrificing for the team is what is required. Not sure Socceroo great (and older brother of Lucy) Ned Zelic would agree.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2-dYH7-sSI

[whythelongface]

Yeah look I know I should probably have a whole lot of trepidation coming into the season, given our past issues, but I genuinely remain very upbeat about the direction of the club, and our prospects this year. I really think we're going to surprise quite a few pundits and fans alike.

Even the club produced behind the scene's type short video released today or yesterday reaffirms what I already knew. It's a well run club, with a very professional set of connected strategic and operational programs in place that flow down to the tiniest details, not to mention highly qualified and motivated staff.

This was evident from the discussion in the above mentioned club produced player development video about having a Bulldog's dictionary that is connected to different digital learning packages to make it easier for new players to quickly adopt and come to grips with he club IP, game plan, game situation expectations and roles and philosophy.

This should really produce some longer term benefits in helping speed up new players transition to what is required at Bulldogs AFL footy level.

Irrespective of what happens in the first round or two, I think we will have a top 4 season. I know, I'm a lunatic. But I just think the review and subsequent changes as well as the return to Whitten Oval this pre-season just might take the air out of the collective pressure the group has felt. Whether its a burden of unrealised expectations, I don't know, but I'm really hopeful we'll see a new breed emerge this season.

Just the arrival of Sanders and some nice showings from JUH, Dacy, Richards and Naughton this pre season give me confidence there is a new ceiling we can reach this year with impetus from the younger tier. This will finally spread the burden that our Skipper has largely tried to bare on his shoulders these last few years.

If others step up as I describe above it could even have the potential affect of helping Bontempelli reach another level again.

Great post YHF. I am pumped after reading this. Bring on the season. Stuff those pundits. They know jack.

[josie]

Nice post YHF. Sunday here we come.

[bornadog]

I?m less concerned with our players and more concerned with our coaching staff and gameplan. We just rely too heavily on individual brilliance and have a lack of structure and flow through the middle of the ground.

Happy there were changes off-season - not enough for me personally

What are your concerns with the gameplan?

[jeemak]

It's like we're the first team to rely on our stars, and it's a bad thing.

Our supporting cast does need to lift a LOT, but every team relies on its stars and always will. Your supporting cast can only do so much at the pointy end of games, rounds and seasons....let alone finals. And that "so much" is super valuable, but it's not the same or anything close to the big game contributions from absolute stars.

Aussie Rules is structured in a way that everyone on the field can have an impact.

[Mavericks]

What are your concerns with the gameplan?
our ball movement from the backline was bottom 4 according to the stats. We have not evolved and we were hand balling backwards, sideways, backwards, adding an extra fwd around the contest that we do not need with LIBBA and Bont there and teams would get numbers back. Once numbers were back we would bomb Into the fwd line hoping for a speccy From naughts.

I agree, we quite often won despite our game inferior game plan because we have some of the most talented players in the AFL and the games best player.

i feel we have made up some ground this preseason so I have high hopes for a top 4 finish. Looks like Egan is heavily involved in all facets including training which is good.

[bornadog]

our ball movement from the backline was bottom 4 according to the stats. We have not evolved and we were hand balling backwards, sideways, backwards, adding an extra fwd around the contest that we do not need with LIBBA and Bont there and teams would get numbers back. Once numbers were back we would bomb Into the fwd line hoping for a speccy From naughts.

I agree, we quite often won despite our game inferior game plan because we have some of the most talented players in the AFL and the games best player.

I was asking in relation to this year, and what we have seen in training and practice matches. Yes last year we were not fluent in our ball movement

[westbulldog]

If Bevo continues to do nothing to halt opposition run ons it will be the same old.

[jeemak]

This has gotten dark.

[AshMac]

What are your concerns with the gameplan?

In it simplest form it?s our defensive structure when the other team has the ball. We play this wide zonal system which seems we?re always running to chase the ball and teams too easily carve through the middle or get out the back.

We struggle with ball movement end to end and NEVER lower the eyes kicking into 50. Watching sydney last night I was amazed at their reluctance to kick it high and long, often going sideways until an option opened up.

Outside of gameplan - the second biggest problem I thought we had last year was fitness. We just looked slow and tired all season I thought.

Again - lots of off-season change - not enough for me

[angelopetraglia]

On what we sad today, sadly yes they are right.

[FrediKanoute]

our ball movement from the backline was bottom 4 according to the stats. We have not evolved and we were hand balling backwards, sideways, backwards, adding an extra fwd around the contest that we do not need with LIBBA and Bont there and teams would get numbers back. Once numbers were back we would bomb Into the fwd line hoping for a speccy From naughts.

I agree, we quite often won despite our game inferior game plan because we have some of the most talented players in the AFL and the games best player.

i feel we have made up some ground this preseason so I have high hopes for a top 4 finish. Looks like Egan is heavily involved in all facets including training which is good.

Our ball movement on Sunday was slow, ponderous and allowed congestion to build up the field. That needs addressing. If you are going to go wide, then you have to go quickly.

[bornadog]

Our ball movement on Sunday was slow, ponderous and allowed congestion to build up the field. That needs addressing. If you are going to go wide, then you have to go quickly.

I partly blame JJ for not bouncing the ball once