Is this Round 1 more important than any other in living memory?

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Round 1 is grossly overrated every year. Clubs have rushed players back for it, media/fans have put too much stock into ONE week of a VERY long season ....

... But even knowing that, is our R1 game vs Melbourne more important than any others in living memory?

Melbourne looked ordinary vs Sydney. We are coming off a poor season, forced change, and are simply out of excuses. Most expect finals, some of us expect top 4 and to compete for a flag.

Some solid signs in the second half vs Hawthorn last week, but that second quarter was alarming and a cruel reminder of what we're capable of when we switch off. We live with hope but who could trust this group?

Win vs a fancied rival and confidence will be high.

Lose and the drums will quickly start beating.

Is it just one game? Or can one week make or expose us?

[Eastdog]

I will say:

We win - really good start
We lose by a bit and play well - not a total right off for the season but must win round 2.

Hard to know how it will go. Can understand the mistrust of the team and hopefully next week we earn some of it back.

[MrMahatma]

Last year felt the same and we got slammed. Then spanked the week after too.

I think as fans we just build it all up cause we hope and hope again that the team won’t shit the bed. Chances are though…

[FrediKanoute]

No....but....for this group and this coach it is.

Given how little trust we and the wider community have in the team they have to get off to a good start next week to show that the off season talk is translatable into action. A competitive loss in a high standard game is probably a bare pass, but a win would ease some pressure.

From a Bevo perspective it's a critical game. Whilst no one will admit it he has 5 games to prove he is the right man to take the club forward.

[Dazza]

Extremely important to get off to a good start. I'm a little worried Melbourne will dust off the cobwebs after that round zero performance and come out swinging next week

[Go_Dogs]

Yes, it’s a big game for us given the mantra the group have taken to it - our most prepared round one side of the last 10 years should walk away with the chocolates in round one. If we get belted, huge issue. If we lose narrowly, that might be “ok” as probably most in the media are expecting that based on where they see us finishing (outside top 8 and definitely lower than Melbourne).

For us as supporters though, and internally, I think we have much higher expectations and anything other than a win could be deflating.

[bornadog]

It is a long season with 23 games to play, so whilst it is great to have a good start in round one, it is not the end of the world.

Melbourne have dusted off the cobwebs, which gives us a bit of a disadvantage, but I am still looking for a competitive hitout.

[Bulldog Joe]

It is a long season with 23 games to play, so whilst it is great to have a good start in round one, it is not the end of the world.

Melbourne have dusted off the cobwebs, which gives us a bit of a disadvantage, but I am still looking for a competitive hitout.

Be stuffed with a competitive hit out.

WE NEED TO WIN!!

[Before I Die]

Round 1, in itself, is never a guide to what happens across the season. It?s good to win, it?s bad to lose, but it takes at least three rounds to get a feeling for how the season will pan out.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Round 1, in itself, is never a guide to what happens across the season. It?s good to win, it?s bad to lose, but it takes at least three rounds to get a feeling for how the season will pan out.

No doubt.

I'm not confident that we can/will bounce back if Melbourne put a 5+ goal win on us next week though.

This group has proven itself to be very fragile, which is why I think this game has more riding on it for us than any other R1 game that I can recall.

[mjp]

Well....whatever it is for us it just became double that for Melbourne.

I guess we've still got a week to wait. My thoughts are the game is going to be more about establishing behaviours and patterns than winning but the players need to come out of it BELIEVING that everything they've been working on has value.

I just get the sense that despite a lot of effort last pre-season we tipped all of that out after two weeks and essentially started again...that can't happen again. They need to feel the plan WILL work whatever the outcome!

[bornadog]

The two-game rule: Why your club?s flag hopes could be over in March (https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/the-two-game-rule-why-your-club-s-flag-hopes-could-be-over-in-march-20240305-p5fa0p.html)

Read article by clicking above.

Main conclusions are:

Since the turn of the century 94 of the 114 teams who have lost their opening two games of the season have failed to make the finals:

82% Failed to make finals.

This was us last year, so we need a good start. Get over Melbourne and we could be 6 out of opening 6 - all winnable.

[Happy Days]

I always think these stats are self fulfilling. Usually teams who lose their first two games are bad and were going to miss the finals anyway. It’s not like good teams lose two games and then suddenly fall victim to the Two Game Curse and forget how to play.

[Sedat]

Well....whatever it is for us it just became double that for Melbourne.

I guess we've still got a week to wait. My thoughts are the game is going to be more about establishing behaviours and patterns than winning but the players need to come out of it BELIEVING that everything they've been working on has value.

I just get the sense that despite a lot of effort last pre-season we tipped all of that out after two weeks and essentially started again...that can't happen again. They need to feel the plan WILL work whatever the outcome!
This 100%. It is the first real time opportunity to establish patterns of behaviour and non-negotiable standards within the team. We just need to lay a marker for these standards in Round 1 and keep working consistently and relentlessly on these every week and every training session, and the results will take care of themselves.

[bornadog]

I always think these stats are self fulfilling. Usually teams who lose their first two games are bad and were going to miss the finals anyway. It’s not like good teams lose two games and then suddenly fall victim to the Two Game Curse and forget how to play.

Well if we lose the first two, does that tell us something.

[Twodogs]

Well if we lose the first two, does that tell us something.

We lost our first 2 games in 1954

[jeemak]

We lost our first 2 games in 1954

And BANG, sling-shotting off the ropes comes Twodogs!!!!

[FrediKanoute]

I always think these stats are self fulfilling. Usually teams who lose their first two games are bad and were going to miss the finals anyway. It?s not like good teams lose two games and then suddenly fall victim to the Two Game Curse and forget how to play.

Yeah, but in the current forma of 18 teams, 9 lose and 11 don't make finals. That means 50% lose, but 61% miss finals. So the chance of losing your first game (I am ignoring the possibility of a draw as it becomes too hard) and miss finals is 30.5% (assuming everyone is equal). To have a stat that says 82% of first round losers also miss finals suggests that, losing the first round is statistically significant in predicting whether a team will also miss the finals, especially when the raw score suggests that it should e closer to 70%.

[Happy Days]

Yeah, but in the current forma of 18 teams, 9 lose and 11 don't make finals. That means 50% lose, but 61% miss finals. So the chance of losing your first game (I am ignoring the possibility of a draw as it becomes too hard) and miss finals is 30.5% (assuming everyone is equal). To have a stat that says 82% of first round losers also miss finals suggests that, losing the first round is statistically significant in predicting whether a team will also miss the finals, especially when the raw score suggests that it should e closer to 70%.

You clearly haven’t kept up with the new Kane Cornes meta of Well Actually Everyone Is Bad.

[jazzadogs]

Yeah, but in the current forma of 18 teams, 9 lose and 11 don't make finals. That means 50% lose, but 61% miss finals. So the chance of losing your first game (I am ignoring the possibility of a draw as it becomes too hard) and miss finals is 30.5% (assuming everyone is equal). To have a stat that says 82% of first round losers also miss finals suggests that, losing the first round is statistically significant in predicting whether a team will also miss the finals, especially when the raw score suggests that it should e closer to 70%.

Could you apply the same stat to any other round though...for example any team that loses round 9 and round 10 is 82% chance to miss finals.

I think it's just logical that a team that loses two games in a row early in the season is less likely to make finals. Generally to make finals you need to win at least 12 games - so if you've lost your first two games, that's 20% of your allowable losses for the season.

[Mavericks]

Yes, Dees have a makeshift forward line with key players out. Oliver did not look right even though he racked up Possessions and Swan beat them with half their mids out.

we are close to full strength, coming off a preseason where the coach said this would be the fittest best prepared round 1 team since he has been there.

Agsin this year the flag is there for the taking so we need to start well and finally finish in the top 4. To me it is a must win game.

[Grantysghost]

Could you apply the same stat to any other round though...for example any team that loses round 9 and round 10 is 82% chance to miss finals.

I think it's just logical that a team that loses two games in a row early in the season is less likely to make finals. Generally to make finals you need to win at least 12 games - so if you've lost your first two games, that's 20% of your allowable losses for the season.
Yes this is it. Losses are losses, doesn't matter where they happen and the only way to prove that the first two games mean any more than other losses is to show the data for all two loss sequences during a season.
Nice click bait. If it was near the bye the headline could easily be teams that lose either side of the bye blah blah blah insert percentage miss finals.

[Can Bar]

For various reasons I have not felt confident in a round 1 win for a few seasons. Something feels different this year. My mindset may have changed watching Bevos early address about selecting the fittest team R1. As for Kane the Tagger, he should have been made irrelevant years ago. I cant understand why coaches dont kill the tagger by tagging them out of the game. lets play our best 17 against your best 17.

[DOG GOD]

We are coming up against a team where our mental state has been fragile since the GF loss. They bend us over. Beveridge said come round 1 the team will the fittest and most hungry in his time at the dogs. We shall see. But what I?m almost guaranteed of seeing, is that Melb won?t be 2.10 at half time.

[bornadog]

We are coming up against a team where our mental state has been fragile since the GF loss. They bend us over. Beveridge said come round 1 the team will the fittest and most hungry in his time at the dogs. We shall see. But what I?m almost guaranteed of seeing, is that Melb won?t be 2.10 at half time.

Never said hungry, he only said fittest.

[CarnTheScray]

I have belief in this team and a lot of things are pointing towards us having a good season, but I won?t get that feeling of trepidation out of my stomach until we beat Melbourne. Once we get that monkey off our back it is absolutely clear skies.

The team must not go into the game with trepidation, we?ve seen time and time again how much the behaviour and energy of the coach is mirrored by the playing group. This year Beveridge looks calm and refreshed, let?s hope the players are the same.

[CarnTheScray]

Well if we lose the first two, does that tell us something.

Even losing our first game tells us something. Think only about 2 premiers in the last twenty years lost their first game.

[Mofra]

This 100%. It is the first real time opportunity to establish patterns of behaviour and non-negotiable standards within the team. We just need to lay a marker for these standards in Round 1 and keep working consistently and relentlessly on these every week and every training session, and the results will take care of themselves.
I hope we did that in the second half last week.

Last night's game was a pretty stark contrast - Carlton didn't tackle in the first quarter and got thumped. Brisbane barely laid a tackle in the third quarter and got thumped. The way to win could hardly become any clearer.

Given we went 2 talls too many in Round 1 last year (1 forward, 1 back) we should be able to cover ground better and not let their distributers to kick the ball without pressure.

[Mofra]

Even losing our first game tells us something. Think only about 2 premiers in the last twenty years lost their first game.
True, although the swans got pretty close to a flag losing their first 6 or 7 one year.

[SonofScray]

Yes.

We’ll know by 1/4 time

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Yes.

We’ll know by 1/4 time

Makes it exciting though doesn't it?

This is when we see what we've got and how close (or far away) we are.

[GVGjr]

I have belief in this team and a lot of things are pointing towards us having a good season, but I won?t get that feeling of trepidation out of my stomach until we beat Melbourne. Once we get that monkey off our back it is absolutely clear skies.

The team must not go into the game with trepidation, we?ve seen time and time again how much the behaviour and energy of the coach is mirrored by the playing group. This year Beveridge looks calm and refreshed, let?s hope the players are the same.

Melbourne are a strong side who performed poorly in Round Zero and is very likely to bounce back but I really like our chances to get the season off to a good start against an often difficult opponent.
I agree that Beveridge looks calm, focused and ready to face the challenges of the season.

[SonofScray]

Makes it exciting though doesn't it?

This is when we see what we've got and how close (or far away) we are.

I’m pumped. We are going to win the flag.

[SonofScray]

Melbourne are a strong side who performed poorly in Round Zero and is very likely to bounce back but I really like our chances to get the season off to a good start against an often difficult opponent.
I agree that Beveridge looks calm, focused and ready to face the challenges of the season.

He absolutely does.

[Jeanette54]

I think it was Patton that talked about getting there fastest with the mostest. (Napoleon had a more poetic way of saying the same thing, but things always sound more poetic when spoken in French). Last night's GWS game was the perfect example of that.

Collingwood (except for junk time) were swamped at the contest by the orange tsunami. That continual pressure of numbers brought about Collingwood's demise. And a host of unexpected errors from the magpies.

Playing that game takes an enormous physical toll on both sides, not the least on the side providing that pressure. If this is the way to win this season, then Bevo's players will definitely need to be the fittest, and most determined that they have ever been.

[MrMahatma]

Playing that game takes an enormous physical toll on both sides, not the least on the side providing that pressure. If this is the way to win this season, then Bevo's players will definitely need to be the fittest, and most determined that they have ever been.

Determination was never mentioned.
“Fittest, strongest, and most ready” is the quote. And yep, they’ll need to be.

[GVGjr]

He absolutely does.

I remember reading a lot of positive comments from WOOF members when Fantasia arrived as he was able to take a lot of non purely Football related distractions off Eade. Ultimately that didn't work out in the longer term but there was an initial bump in allowing the coach to narrow his focus. Losing Maple and not replacing him until now with Egan just added to the disjointed 2023 season and as we have said many times on here that with good recruiting, new coaches and a great training venue there are no excuses for us in 2024.

[bornadog]

I remember reading a lot of positive comments from WOOF members when Fantasia arrived as he was able to take a lot of non purely Football related distractions off Eade. Ultimately that didn't work out in the longer term but there was an initial bump in allowing the coach to narrow his focus. Losing Maple and not replacing him until now with Egan just added to the disjointed 2023 season and as we have said many times on here that with good recruiting, new coaches and a great training venue there are no excuses for us in 2024.

There is one excuse - not good enough. Not that I believe that, but once we start the real games, we will find out.

[jeemak]

There is one excuse - not good enough. Not that I believe that, but once we start the real games, we will find out.

This is the bit that worries me. Depth may still be a concern, hopefully urgency, commitment and fitness across the group helps lift the output across the board. If it can't then we'll be middling again.

[MrMahatma]

Would you rather our list, or GWS list? Just for this season.

[Mofra]

Would you rather our list, or GWS list? Just for this season.
Ours. The thought of cheering for Toby Greene just puts me off

[jeemak]

Ours. The thought of cheering for Toby Greene just puts me off

You need to drink the reformist Kool-Aid and get on board the Toby Train mate. He's wonderful.

[bornadog]

You need to drink the reformist Kool-Aid and get on board the Toby Train mate. He's wonderful.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/pVAMI8QYM42n6/200w.gif?cid=6c09b95257qxwt315cawhvog47n7fa819g322mkn5o975j1 h&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=200w.gif&ct=g

Cannot take to him, full stop

[Mofra]

You need to drink the reformist Kool-Aid and get on board the Toby Train mate. He's wonderful.
Enjoi ur ban

[angelopetraglia]

Forecast for next Sunday is 25c, sunny and light winds. Going to be a cracking day at the MCG. Bring it on.

[Can Bar]

It will be interesting to see if Tim English adopts Grundy style tactics, to nullify Gawn's run at the ball ups. Or will he bring his own tactics to the contest. Is Gawn pre-occupied with Demons off field issues. Has he lost his edge. this is the contest I am looking forward too.

[Go_Dogs]

It will be interesting to see if Tim English adopts Grundy style tactics, to nullify Gawn's run at the ball ups. Or will he bring his own tactics to the contest. Is Gawn pre-occupied with Demons off field issues. Has he lost his edge. this is the contest I am looking forward too.

Gawn will be ready for a big response I suspect. Ultimately, he’s a competitor and been the best for a while now. He won’t like having been beaten up by Grundy and will have his eyes on Timmy who he’s beaten up on over the years. I wonder if we see more of Lobb in the ruck this week as a result?