Close games - what is going wrong?

[angelopetraglia]

In recent times both Carlton (The Blues are now 8-0 in their last eight games decided by a single digit) and Collingwood have been celebrated for their ability to close out close games. We are the exact opposite.

Since round #4 last year when we beat the Tigers by four points, these have been all our results decided by 14 points or less.

Port lose by 14
Suns lose by 7
Pies lose by 12
Swans lose by 2
Giants lose by 5
Hawks lose by 3
Eagles lose by 7
Cats lose by 4

We are 8-0. That is not just luck. Something is going drastically wrong. Even you just limit it to games decided by single digits. That is now 6-0.

Our narrowest wins in that time is Giants in Canberra by 15 and then Carlton by 20 at Marvel.

[soupman]

How many were we coming from behind in? Last night and Swans definitely. Feels like we are often constantly 2ish goals behind teams then have a late flurry to try and steal it, which can't be the best way to approach it.

[angelopetraglia]

How many were we coming from behind in? Last night and Swans definitely. Feels like we are often constantly 2ish goals behind teams then have a late flurry to try and steal it, which can't be the best way to approach it.

A number, but the Pies mastered the art of doing that. When the game is that close it is the small things in clutch moments that make the difference. We are not getting the job done when it matters. We are 6-0 for single digit games. The Blues are 8-0. That can't just be random luck can it?

The odds of randomly winning a close game eight times in a row is 1 in 256.

[angelopetraglia]

How many were we coming from behind in? Last night and Swans definitely. Feels like we are often constantly 2ish goals behind teams then have a late flurry to try and steal it, which can't be the best way to approach it.

Just by memory.

Port game I think we had control and they overrun us.
Suns game we jumped them early, then they overrun us, then we came at them late.
Pies they were always in control.
Swans game was an arm wrestle, we had some chances early in the last quarter to gap them.
Giants we were in complete control and got run over.
Hawks we were outclassed all day and came at them late.
Eagles we were outclassed all day and came at them late.
Cats we on the back foot for most of the game.

[SonofScray]

A chunk of those games I never felt we were truly in the contest. We can have 20minutes of absolutely dominant footy undone in a single F50 entry the other way. Can’t chase down leads in that world.

Saw someone describe last night as the “cats playing with their food” which is infuriatingly arrogant, but potentially true.

[angelopetraglia]

The Magpies have now won the last seven games they have been involved in with a margin of less than ten points.

Dogs are 0-6.

[angelopetraglia]

Swamp

COLL last 6 games at
@TheAdelaideOval

5 pt win - 2021 R12 v adel
5 pt win - 2022 R18 v adel
6 pt win - 2023 R05 v stk
1 pt win - 2023 R07 v adel
2 pt win - 2023 R19 v port
5 pt win - 2024 R04 v HAW

[Uninformed]

I think it gets down to confidence. We are not sure we can win. We want to believe we can win, but are not confident.

Collingwood new they could win last year if they kept doing their thing.

Libba had that look in his eyes right at the end, but Tim didn't and Bont. was tired and so not as fierce in that determination as Libba.

We were close, but not quite.

Real secret to confidence is doing it. Win a close one once and confidence sprouts, do it twice and it grows, three times, then many times and confidence becomes an unshakeable Oak.

We saw it happen over four games in 2016. It can happen again.

Dont' be discouraged by losing a close one yesterday, but know that you are close and and that is a sign that you will soon win the first close one against good opposition and build from there.

[mighty_west]

I remember it being quoted somewhere a while back that the good teams just find a way to win those close games, we have proven over the past few seasons that we aren't in the category yet giving up multiple goals in a row on too many occasions and just not being tight enough in the contest allowing our opposition a somewhat easy run at times and those stats show that we've had to somehow claw our way back in games only to fall short on the bell.

I see this team now in a transition faze with introducing younger players in different positions, Gags, Darcy, Sanders, JOD will come back in, Buku is still raw but showing good signs (what's the point of playing Keath unless the break glass everyone is injured option?), they all are and whilst most of us can see (the media cannot) getting games into these players is vital for future success as players like MacRae and Daniel are just not making the right impact they once did to help influence games, think Dale isn't far behind those two, so as the team progresses hopefully we improve as a team going forward and become that good team again, and start winning those close games.

[soupman]

The Magpies have now won the last seven games they have been involved in with a margin of less than ten points.

Dogs are 0-6.

Stats are stats but how much credit do they really get for being saved by the bell from a winless Hawthorn who fell 1 minute short of erasing a 40 point deficit?

[angelopetraglia]

Stats are stats but how much credit do they really get for being saved by the bell from a winless Hawthorn who fell 1 minute short of erasing a 40 point deficit?

Four points.

[AshMac]

I think there is an element of mental edge and grit. It didn?t decide the game - but in the final
Minute of saturday the ball was loose on our forward 50 arc - I think Holmes was chasing it - and 3 bulldogs stood a meter off him to try and create a stoppage. Not one of them dove in for the ball. One of the players was Treloar. When Holmes picked it up - Bailey Williams just stood there with his hands in the air.

It really stood out to me as a pivotal moment - not of a contested ball we should have won - but of a team too tentative to do whatever it takes to win a moment like that.

[angelopetraglia]

Peter Ryan. The Age.

The Devil is in the details at the Bulldogs

By contrast the Bulldogs aren’t winning the close ones. Since the 2021 grand final they have won just two of the nine games they have played in that were decided by seven points or less.

Their four-point loss to Geelong, who found creative ways to pull apart the Bulldogs, was their fifth loss by seven points or less from their past 11 matches.

That trend cost them a spot in last year’s finals and could have the same impact this season if the club can’t turn it around.

There are no signs it will drain Marcus Bontempelli’s spirit, but it must be testing the skipper’s patience. The overdue message from the pre-season review was that the load Bontempelli has been carrying needed to be spread across the group. Tom Liberatore has stepped up and Adam Treloar, Liam Jones and Ed Richards are trying hard.

But Aaron Naughton, Tim English, Bailey Dale and Bailey Williams need to do more while Caleb Daniel and Jack Macrae have to take a competitor’s approach into fighting for a spot as their position in the team continues to be questioned.

[BornInDroopSt'54]

Good article by Michael Gleeson in the Age:
"Dogs drop the ball despite stars shining
The Bulldogs? two best players were rampant. The Cats two best midfielders didn?t play. Tom Hawkins was kept goalless. Jeremy Cameron played on a wing.

The Dogs won all of the clearances ? centre and around the ground ? took more marks inside 50, laid more tackles, laid 10 more tackles inside 50, the Cats had seven players over 30. And yet, the Dogs lost.

Dogs drop the ball despite stars shining
The Bulldogs? two best players were rampant. The Cats two best midfielders didn?t play. Tom Hawkins was kept goalless. Jeremy Cameron played on a wing.

Not only did they lose, but despite the last-quarter surge and narrow final margin, it always felt like Geelong would win.

Tom Liberatore played a game that, even just by the numbers, was a masterclass ? 35 touches, 19 clearances 10 score involvements and nine tackles. Marcus Bontempelli had 35 disposals and seven clearances, and Adam Treloar had more touches than anyone on the ground.

That says they should have won. How did they not?

The most compelling statistic was one leading into this match that foretold what might occur: the Cats had won seven of the past eight over the Dogs.
How the Cats did it still seems a mystery. Miers was excellent rolling up from half forward as an extra mid, where his squirty kicks pierced the forward 50-metre arc. Tyson Stengle chose this game to click into gear after a slow start to the year. Brandon Parfitt is also having an excellent season.

And Chris Scott won his position."
Yes Chris Scott gets us everytime.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

We aren't good?

Overly simplistic I know but Collingwood (Premiership and a PF) and Carlton (PF and now 4-0) were/are very good sides.

Good sides don't lose to THAT Eagles side. They finish GWS off in Ballarat. We can pick examples from each game to highlight the 'why' but when it happens 8+ times or whatever it is, well, you're probably just not very good and you're relying on too few (i.e Bont and Libba).

I'm glad we are blooding Gags, Darcy, Sanders and co. We need to blood more. Daniel, Macrae, Williams, Dale etc. are the ones who should be heavily impacting games and they aren't, and haven't for a while. We need to keep turning over the list.

[jeemak]

At what point are we going to admit that (or ask if) our recruiting of bottom-middle and bottom tier players hasn't been as good as other clubs? Or our players in that bracket are out of form or not going to regain form.

If you want to win close games you need to have even contributors across the ground. Players need to be standing up and doing things that are dependably positive to influence the result.

[Vred]

I honestly just think we're not drilled in these scenarios - last year and now the Geelong game, we seem to go to water in the last quarters when they're close, we start dumping kicks, losing shape around the ground and just panicking.

Really need to tighten up and get these scenarios drilled into our players more. I know it's something that Collingwood practiced over and over last year, hopefully we start doing the same.

[jeemak]

Another angle I think about in these close losses doesn't have anything to do with what happened at the death - or leading up to that point in the last quarter, more so, what happened throughout the game.

Looking back at Saturday Geelong were just cleaner and more polished with their handling in close than we were and it released their second ball players better for them than we could for ours. It was a trend that continued through the game.

As we evolve I think we'll eventually look back at this game as one in which we hung on, but were always up against it due to our lack of quality in close. We had colossal efforts from all of Bont, Libba and Treloar, but each of them were at times guilty of fumbling that cost us split seconds here and there across the ground. Geelong didn't seem to do that as much as we did, and I think that's why they got ahead of us early and maintained the lead in a relatively close game.

Talk about strategy and set ups is fine, and I get that Chris Scott gets it right often but we had more intercepts than they did and beat them in just about every mainstream indicator you can think of, except quality at the source and next out (which can't be measured easily) which visually seemed to be an issue for us.

If that's happening all game, it's difficult to arrest at the death.

[josie]

Another angle I think about in these close losses doesn't have anything to do with what happened at the death - or leading up to that point in the last quarter, more so, what happened throughout the game.

Looking back at Saturday Geelong were just cleaner and more polished with their handling in close than we were and it released their second ball players better for them than we could for ours. It was a trend that continued through the game.

As we evolve I think we'll eventually look back at this game as one in which we hung on, but were always up against it due to our lack of quality in close. We had colossal efforts from all of Bont, Libba and Treloar, but each of them were at times guilty of fumbling that cost us split seconds here and there across the ground. Geelong didn't seem to do that as much as we did, and I think that's why they got ahead of us early and maintained the lead in a relatively close game.

Talk about strategy and set ups is fine, and I get that Chris Scott gets it right often but we had more intercepts than they did and beat them in just about every mainstream indicator you can think of, except quality at the source and next out (which can't be measured easily) which visually seemed to be an issue for us.

If that's happening all game, it's difficult to arrest at the death.

Agree with this. There?s no stat for fumbles but it?s an important point. It?s one of the big differences b/w our best and worst players.

[hujsh]

Despite the stats it always felt like Geelong had us at arms length. That we came back at all is to me a positive and I hope it starts to create some belief that we can close the gap like that going forward. Against opposition that aren't as good as Geelong we may well pinch a game or two we don't deserve to.

The ones that worry me more are the ones where we crumble and lose our lead at the very last minute. Those are the one's I'll judge more harshly.

[Danjul]

I honestly just think we're not drilled in these scenarios - last year and now the Geelong game, we seem to go to water in the last quarters when they're close, we start dumping kicks, losing shape around the ground and just panicking.

Really need to tighten up and get these scenarios drilled into our players more. I know it's something that Collingwood practiced over and over last year, hopefully we start doing the same.
If you walk around the boundary from the goals at one end to the other it is 50% further than the direct route.

Our game plan goes as wide as possible, Geelong?s was as straight as possible. Less kicks needed , less time taken. Always a receiver ahead. Maybe we should take a leaf out of the good teams approach and get more efficient tactics.

[1eyedog]

Another angle I think about in these close losses doesn't have anything to do with what happened at the death - or leading up to that point in the last quarter, more so, what happened throughout the game.

Looking back at Saturday Geelong were just cleaner and more polished with their handling in close than we were and it released their second ball players better for them than we could for ours. It was a trend that continued through the game.

As we evolve I think we'll eventually look back at this game as one in which we hung on, but were always up against it due to our lack of quality in close. We had colossal efforts from all of Bont, Libba and Treloar, but each of them were at times guilty of fumbling that cost us split seconds here and there across the ground. Geelong didn't seem to do that as much as we did, and I think that's why they got ahead of us early and maintained the lead in a relatively close game.

Talk about strategy and set ups is fine, and I get that Chris Scott gets it right often but we had more intercepts than they did and beat them in just about every mainstream indicator you can think of, except quality at the source and next out (which can't be measured easily) which visually seemed to be an issue for us.

If that's happening all game, it's difficult to arrest at the death.

Agreed and we turned the ball over ten more times and they scored 18 more points from turnovers than we did.

I know this is just one stat but in a tight game it's a pretty big discrepancy.

[angelopetraglia]

I understand all the commentary in this thread about us losing games because the other team was just better on the day. They had our measure. We were playing catchup. They are cleaner, we fumble. Understand all of that.

The point is though, we lost all these games by a tiny margin. Teams like the Pies and Blues have won some of these close games where THEY HAVE NOT BEEN THE BEST TEAM. They have won coming from behind. They have won hanging on with a steam train coming back at them. They just win. They get the job done. We just lose.

The Pies won three finals by seven points, one point and four points. I would argue they were outplayed in two of those games and they looked like the were going to lose.

[1eyedog]

I understand all the commentary in this thread about us losing games because the other team was just better on the day. They had our measure. We were playing catchup. Understand.

The point is though, we lost all these games by a very small margin. Teams like the Pies and Blues have won some of these close games where THEY HAVE NOT BEEN THE BEST TEAM. They have won coming from behind. They have won hanging on with a steam train coming back at them. They just win. We just lose.

Has to be related to delivering under pressure doesn't it?

[angelopetraglia]

Has to be related to delivering under pressure doesn't it?

Yes. Confidence, belief and execution when it really matters.

I would also probably add scenario planning. Like when Calrton is hanging on to a small lead, Curnow goes back to defence as a spare. How many big marks did Curnow take in the D50 across the Blues small margin win run in the the last five minutes. They know when they have to go fast, they know when the have to go slow. In the GWS v Pies prelim, the Pies with a slender lead forced how many ball ups in a row and just locked it in. When they are behind they go fast, direct and take risks running the ball.

[1eyedog]

Yes. Confidence, belief and execution when it really matters.

I would also probably add scenario planning. Like when Calrton is hanging on to a small lead, Curnow goes back to defence as a spare. How many big marks did Curnow take in the D50 across the Blues small margin win run in the the last five minutes. They know when they have to go fast, they know when the have to go slow. In the GWS v Pies prelim, the Pies with a slender lead forced how many ball ups in a row and just locked it in. When they are behind they go fast, direct and take risks running the ball.

Is the Curnow back / Cameron roam where he wants thing the product of flexible coaching or player smarts I wonder? There has been some absolute fantastic examples of running the clock down by some of the better teams over the past few weeks as well. Some of the coaches also throw a tag on for 10 minutes when they lose momentum.

Do we have dumb footballers or are we just static in the coaches box? Not trying to run the coaches down here but there seems to be a gap between what we're capable of and the top 6 teams. There's been a lot of talk over the years of Bevo's ability to think on his feet on match day and how he generally likes to just stick with the plan.

My feeling with close games is that there is an element of luck (such as the umpires jumping on your side for the last two minutes of the Carlton v Freo game) as well as confidence. When you win one, two, three close games you must kind of just think if it's close and tight we'll hold our nerve better and not panic because we've done it so often.

[Ozza]

Chiming in late as I've been away this week. But the most frustrating parts of the Geelong game were all the predictable parts.

My starting point on the game was that we would win more than our share of footy, and inside 50s - but give the ball back too much, be out coached and lose a relatively close one. Nothing nostradamus there - we have all been watching the last 8-10 years of Dogs/Cats games. They pretty much all pan out the exact same and we are Chris Scott, Tom Stewart and Jeremy Cameron's play thing.

But at three quarter time, I texted my old man - and said - "Well, 5 day break for the cats, old legs, no dangerfield and we should run over the top of them. But we won't be smart enough to win".

Same old dogs.
We don't win the close ones. But moreover, we simply DO NOT beat the well coached teams. We are Melbourne and Geelong's bunnies. St.Kilda will be a handful for us next week and god help us when we play at venues with weather conditions or awkward sizing (Tassie, SCG, Kardinia park).

[angelopetraglia]

Another game in the balance in the last quarter. Another game where we blow our lines when it really matters. So many if moments again but when it counts we don't take our chances.

[bulldogtragic]

Another game in the balance in the last quarter. Another game where we blow our lines when it really matters. So many if moments again but when it counts we don't take our chances.

Good teams take them…. Ergo….

[Eastdog]

Another gone in a close one for us. It is huge if you win these type of games.

The last close one we won I believe watch against the Tigers at the G last year.

[bulldogtragic]

So todays going to be different right?

[bulldogtragic]

So todays going to be different right?

Right?

[bulldogtragic]

Right?

Can’t win close games. Broken players.

[angelopetraglia]

Every single close game we lose. Today wasn?t unlucky.

We hit the front. Then either made stupid decisions like the Jones kick to a 50/50 in space or just got beaten in big moments when it mattered.

We are broken. Imagine the difference in belief and energy if we even halved those close losses.9 in a row under 10 points.

[macca]

Every single close game we lose. Today wasn?t unlucky.

We hit the front. Then either made stupid decisions like the Jones kick to a 50/50 in space orjust got beaten in big moments when it mattered.

We are broken. Imagine the difference in belief and energy if we even halved those close losses.9 in a row under 10 points.

That is the biggest problem with this group. When it matters, the opponent finds a way to beat them or they make stupid mistake :(

JJ terrible kick in the last quarter. He needs to be dropped and we start preparing his replacement

[jazzadogs]

It's pretty incredible really...9 in a row under 14 points have been lost.

Flip them...

We finish last year with an extra 7 wins. 19 and 4 losses! We're top of the ladder!

This year...
If we'd beaten Cats and Hawks...we're 5-3, sitting fourth!

Is it:
- a coaching issue that gets us in losing positions?
- a playing issue that can't handle the heat of a close game?

[Happy Days]

I honestly believe the group proves to themselves that they *could* win the game and lose a ton of edge once they do so. It’s why we kick the first three goals actually every week.

[angelopetraglia]

It's pretty incredible really...9 in a row under 14 points have been lost.

Flip them...

We finish last year with an extra 7 wins. 19 and 4 losses! We're top of the ladder!

This year...
If we'd beaten Cats and Hawks...we're 5-3, sitting fourth!

Is it:
- a coaching issue that gets us in losing positions?
- a playing issue that can't handle the heat of a close game?

That is just crazy and just shows you how important it is to win those close games, even when you have a bad day, which is what the Pies have done for two years now.

The Pies put in a horror show performance against the Hawks, but hung on to win by under a goal.

[Ozza]

Bont and English off the ground for significant minutes when the game was up for grabs.

When I spotted Bont running off I immediately thought 'how long is it going to be this week before we get him back on'. It felt like an hour!

[SonofScray]

Our coach isn't capable of setting these players up to succeed.

[Mantis]

Bont and English off the ground for significant minutes when the game was up for grabs.

When I spotted Bont running off I immediately thought 'how long is it going to be this week before we get him back on'. It felt like an hour!

It was a diabolical mistake on our behalf... the ball was stuck on the outer wing for a good 4-5min and we weren't willing to play 1 short for 20-30sec to get the competitions best player on the ground... makes sense to me.

In those instances, not having the ability to use the runner to facilitate a change is far from ideal.

[Ozza]

It was a diabolical mistake on our behalf... the ball was stuck on the outer wing for a good 4-5min and we weren't willing to play 1 short for 20-30sec to get the competitions best player on the ground... makes sense to me.

In those instances, not having the ability to use the runner to facilitate a change is far from ideal.

But after it happened just last week - surely we put something in place to ensure someone out there will get the hint that they HAVE to come off. We had the opportunity to review what happened last week and address it, and chose not to.

[SonofScray]

It's pretty incredible really...9 in a row under 14 points have been lost.

Flip them...

We finish last year with an extra 7 wins. 19 and 4 losses! We're top of the ladder!

This year...
If we'd beaten Cats and Hawks...we're 5-3, sitting fourth!

Is it:
- a coaching issue that gets us in losing positions?
- a playing issue that can't handle the heat of a close game?

Its a coaching issue.

Even if the players are soft and really lacking the sort of G&D we expect from our teams, that is simply a reflection of the coach anyway.

Its clear as day, has been for years and we've all been conned of years of enjoyment at the footy.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Its clear as day, has been for years and we've all been conned of years of enjoyment at the footy.

This shouldn't be lost on the club, but seemingly is.

We've been horrific to watch for 2.5 seasons. I could barely name one enjoyable game in that stretch - and by enjoyable, I mean one where we play well and win vs good opposition.

I've only been to 2 games this year and I might not go again. I've been a member for 30+ years and I've never been as disengaged with our identity.

[bornadog]

Bont and English off the ground for significant minutes when the game was up for grabs.

When I spotted Bont running off I immediately thought 'how long is it going to be this week before we get him back on'. It felt like an hour!

Bring back the runners

[angelopetraglia]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM4G83BaoAA8paT?format=jpg&name=small

Link https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2024-round-8-talking-points-analysis-reaction-results-wrap-highlights-expected-score-ladder-essendon-lucky-jake-soligo-breakout-collingwood-list-problems/news-story/704a28547173d6c9b6566e399e0f20e7

[Happy Days]

Wow I feel so much better now.

[jazzadogs]

Does winning games on expected score, but losing them in real life, not put a lot of the blame on the players skill level?

It tells me that we have a game plan which generally creates opportunities, and restricts opposition opportunities.

Whether we're entertaining is one thing, but the plan is generally effective - if the players convert their shots.

Without going over it, how many set shots late in these close losses did we miss or put out on the full? How many opportunities did we create and leave begging? If Marra converted at the AFL average last year then we play finals.

[bulldogtragic]

I hate losing all these games. Fuvking hate it.

[jazzadogs]

I hate losing all these games. Fuvking hate it.

I put tonight in a different basket, but I also hate it.

[angelopetraglia]

We tried our guys out tonight. That 50m was right in front of us, what a disgrace.

[The Underdog]

I put tonight in a different basket, but I also hate it.

Yeah, if that game was 22 v 22 we win.

[macca]

Its literal a 4 goal advantage the umpires are handing the opposition

Against Essendon , their first 4 goals for bs frees.

Tonight against the Swans there was at least 4. Amarty first goal , was not a free. Jones attempts to spoil. Utter rubbish

Umpires are really ruining my interests on this game..

Also that stupid over rule decision on the line by video, i cant recall who kicked it, Daniel??? Was putrid.

[bulldogtragic]

Enough. Break the hoodoo tonight.

[bulldogtragic]

Enough. Break the hoodoo tonight.

It feels nice…

[Funke disco]

Soooo good!!

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

We've needed a win like this for a few years. You could see how much it meant.

[hujsh]

Enough. Break the hoodoo tonight.

Close enough to being close

[macca]

Soooo good!!

Especially against the pies!
How protected is Daicos? How many frees did he get tonight?

[josie]

Hoping this is our Sydney 2015 game. Feels lovely to win a close one.

[soupman]

Does it count? We still haven't won a game within 14 points in a while.

Shame Darcy couldn't see the bigger picture.

[bulldogtragic]

Does it count? We still haven't won a game within 14 points in a while.

Shame Darcy couldn't see the bigger picture.

I was just hoping for a handy behind from his snap. Then he puts it dead centre through the goals like a start arse…

[jeemak]

I was just hoping for a handy behind from his snap. Then he puts it dead centre through the goals like a start arse…

Damn start arse.

[angelopetraglia]

The monkey is off the back. That game was on the line with only minutes to play against the masters of the close game finish.

[bulldogtragic]

Damn start arse.

These kids today. I tell you I get no respect.

[Sedat]

The monkey is off the back. That game was on the line with only minutes to play against the masters of the close game finish.
Last night we were very composed down the stretch but I'd like a bigger sample size than 1 game.

[angelopetraglia]

Last night we were very composed down the stretch but I'd like a bigger sample size than 1 game.

Agree. But we kept our nerve when it mattered most. We had not done that for over 12 months.