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View Full Version : "Schedule" wins. And Losses. Do they exist (and in what form?).



mjp
23-04-2024, 01:13 PM
Topical for me as we are coming off a win vs a Saints team that was playing it's 3rd game in 11 days. And are about to play a Freo team which just got done by West Coast after 'deciding' to spend a few weeks away from home for Gather Round/the game vs PA which followed.

#1: It is so STUPID that Port get a home game the week after Gather round. Everyone else has just travelled. When it is over, they should have to travel and if that means no game in Adelaide the next week, big whoop.
#2: Freo staying in Adelaide just seems dumb to me. To be fair, with 5-mins to go in each game (Carlton, Port) they were in front but they came home with ZERO points.
#3: St Kilda playing 3-games in 11-games (to be fair, I haven't checked) just seems unfair.

Are the losses just suffered by Freo and St Kilda - both teams performed WAAAAY below expectations - "Schedule" or "Fixture" losses. And if they are, what constitutes such a thing and how can we identify when we are in danger of them in the future???

bulldogsthru&thru
23-04-2024, 01:37 PM
I don't know if fixture losses are a thing and if they are, how they would impact a team.

But we blew st kilda away in the 1st quarter. Does that tell us anything? If it was down to the fixture would they fatigue only really in the 2nd half? Or does it impact the players from the get go?

The fixture is a shambles in general and is a huge reason for inequality in the league. Craig Macrae has said it recently that there are many inequalities in it including Collingwood getting 14 games at the mcg.

jeemak
23-04-2024, 01:38 PM
Is it as simple as if you're coming off a five or a six day break, and your opponents have a day on you you're vulnerable?

When we played Essendon they were on a 7-6-7 and we were on a 6-6-6 roll, and it seemed we were flat from the outset even if we did blow numerous first half opportunities.

mjp
23-04-2024, 01:53 PM
If it was down to the fixture would they fatigue only really in the 2nd half? Or does it impact the players from the get go?


Well...if you assume physical fatigue is the only factor, maybe fatigue late in games would be the issue.

Somehow I doubt the problem is a physical one though. It will just be the mental beatdown of:

- Preparing for multiple opponents in a short-time frame.
- Dealing with travel/different accomodations.
- Timezones, meal-times etc.

mighty_west
23-04-2024, 01:59 PM
Trying to get your head around things being fair and equal would just do your head in, and Craig McRae summed it up perfectly (get this guy running the AFL).

The noise was loud after the game about the Saints having to play 3 games in 11 days, but then we played 3 in 12 days, better but not by much.

I think the bigger disadvantages are the breaks, teams coming off a bye seem to struggle against a team that played that week prior, same with finals, the big one, the two winners in the top 4 having such a long break to back up for a Prelim against teams playing in hard fought semi's (most finals) that are usually a step up in intensity on a lot of home and away games, with trying to replicate that intensity in training in the week off would be almost impossible.

Happy Days
23-04-2024, 02:01 PM
The Gather Round fixture is a farce. In spite of their being a blatantly obvious solution to have them play each other, both the Adelaide clubs get an extra home game for reasons that have never been explained or even asked about. If Port’s draw to start the year was any softer then the Crows would probably look to spend a top 10 pick on it next year.

If they were real clubs actually capable of succeeding and not complete jokes obsessed with how to stand for the national anthem or what jumper they aren’t wearing then I would be outraged.

Axe Man
23-04-2024, 02:05 PM
St Kilda played 3 games in 12 days - 7th, 13th, 18th - a 6 day break followed by 5 days. If you played on 2 consecutive days you have played 2 games in 2 days, not 1 day - you have to count day 1. If you had x2 7 day breaks it would be 3 games in 15 days as a comparison. Given the short breaks and games in Adelaide, Canberra, then Melbourne it was definitely a challenging fixture.

Melbourne stayed in Adelaide after beating Port in round 3 and then defeated the Crows in Gather Round so I don't think Freo's losses can be put down to just that.

mjp
23-04-2024, 03:08 PM
Melbourne stayed in Adelaide after beating Port in round 3 and then defeated the Crows in Gather Round so I don't think Freo's losses can be put down to just that.

LOLS. Just checking in to see what happened to Melbourne after their 2-weeks spent in Adelaide? Any ideas?

bornadog
23-04-2024, 03:34 PM
Arsenal played 3 games in a week and lost two.
I have said it for a long time, the fixture is a farce

comrade
23-04-2024, 03:44 PM
We got shafted by Gather round. Not that it probably matters as they beat us everywhere, but how good was it to get a ?home? game against the Cats.

Bulldog Joe
23-04-2024, 04:18 PM
Topical for me as we are coming off a win vs a Saints team that was playing it's 3rd game in 11 days. And are about to play a Freo team which just got done by West Coast after 'deciding' to spend a few weeks away from home for Gather Round/the game vs PA which followed.

#1: It is so STUPID that Port get a home game the week after Gather round. Everyone else has just travelled. When it is over, they should have to travel and if that means no game in Adelaide the next week, big whoop.
#2: Freo staying in Adelaide just seems dumb to me. To be fair, with 5-mins to go in each game (Carlton, Port) they were in front but they came home with ZERO points.
#3: St Kilda playing 3-games in 11-games (to be fair, I haven't checked) just seems unfair.

Are the losses just suffered by Freo and St Kilda - both teams performed WAAAAY below expectations - "Schedule" or "Fixture" losses. And if they are, what constitutes such a thing and how can we identify when we are in danger of them in the future???

1.Agree totally on this. If they want footy in Adelaide after Gather Round why not Port v Adelaide that week.

2. Freo staying in Adelaide was worth a try as it saved a return Perth Flight. Would they have been any better against West Coast if they had flown the extra trip. They may have been much worse against Port as well.
Melbourne stayed in Adelaide for 2 weeks and won both but were abysmal the following week against Brisbane but 3 games in 12 days while Brisbane had a bye and a soft game against North.

3. St Kilda 3rd game in 11 days playing us with 3rd game in 12 and 4th in 18. St Kilda can have an exhaustion excuse but did we get one for our dismal effort against Essendon.

The fixture is inherently unfair and will remain compromised for EVER as the AFL chase revenue not parity.

Flamethrower
23-04-2024, 04:23 PM
These things are only a problem if you let them be. When I heard Ross Lyon bring it up during the week leading up to the game it just gave the St Kilda players an excuse to not give 100% from the start, and to give up when things got too hard.

And that is how it played out.

The question is would the game have played out that way if Ross had taken a positive approach to the short breaks and challenged his team to win despite this. We will never know, but it always seems to be mentally fragile teams that succumb to these "difficulties" while mentally strong teams take it all in their stride and win anyway.

Axe Man
23-04-2024, 05:27 PM
LOLS. Just checking in to see what happened to Melbourne after their 2-weeks spent in Adelaide? Any ideas?

Any need for a response like this? I don't care if you disagree with me but this is Facebook level rubbish.

jeemak
23-04-2024, 05:53 PM
LOLS. Just checking in to see what happened to Melbourne after their 2-weeks spent in Adelaide? Any ideas?


Any need for a response like this? I don't care if you disagree with me but this is Facebook level rubbish.

Nets.

azabob
23-04-2024, 06:01 PM
Nets.

Is Yarraville a neutral ground considering the distance in hours both combatants would need to travel?

jeemak
23-04-2024, 06:09 PM
Is Yarraville a neutral ground considering the distance in hours both combatants would need to travel?

As the antagonist I feel MJP shouldn't benefit from scheduling and location equity.

mjp
23-04-2024, 06:29 PM
Any need for a response like this? I don't care if you disagree with me but this is Facebook level rubbish.


I?m not disagreeing. I was laughing because you compared Melbourne?s effort in the 2nd Adelaide game with Freo?s effort when they got home. I just chuckled at the comparison as it seemed unfair and misguided.

The reality is both sides stayed in Adelaide for 2 weeks and performed well whilst there - Melbourne won both and Freo were robbed once by the umpires and very unlucky in a 3-point loss the next. Then when they got home both sides lost games in which they were heavy favourites.

The EXACT same thing happened to both teams.

Grantysghost
23-04-2024, 06:30 PM
As the antagonist I feel MJP shouldn't benefit from scheduling and location equity.

I've seen MJP's biceps he could walk to Yarraville on his hands and still be up for the throw down.

Coaches sooking about their short breaks is a nice deflection. I guess you only hear about it when they lose.

mjp
23-04-2024, 06:32 PM
As the antagonist I feel MJP shouldn't benefit from scheduling and location equity.

Fair. I would claim though - in my defence - that Axe deliberately messed up the comparison between Melbourne and Freo to get me to bite. I probably shouldn’t have bitten quite as hard, but I still claim I was provoked.

azabob
23-04-2024, 07:15 PM
Fair. I would claim though - in my defence - that Axe deliberately messed up the comparison between Melbourne and Freo to get me to bite. I probably shouldn’t have bitten quite as hard, but I still claim I was provoked.

Where is your “good guy” character reference?

MrMahatma
23-04-2024, 07:16 PM
So does all this mean:

- we only won cause Saints were tired
- Freo only lost cause they were tired
- thus if no one is tired, we don’t win and they don’t lose, so tip Freo this week?

Grantysghost
23-04-2024, 07:21 PM
So does all this mean:

- we only won cause Saints were tired
- Freo only lost cause they were tired
- thus if no one is tired, we don’t win and they don’t lose, so tip Freo this week?

You've cracked the code.

bornadog
23-04-2024, 08:10 PM
Is Yarraville a neutral ground considering the distance in hours both combatants would need to travel?

Could be a gather round in Adelaide

jazzadogs
23-04-2024, 09:10 PM
Could be a gather round in Adelaide

Gather round the Nets?

jazzadogs
23-04-2024, 09:26 PM
It's incredibly unfair that there are 8 teams who have already had a bye.

There have been 4 matches so far including teams who have had a bye playing teams with no bye. 3 have been won by the team off the bye.

There were also inexplicably 4 matches in round one with a team who played round zero vs a team who had not yet played. 3 out of 4 were won by the match hardened team.

Looking at the saints...
Round 1 - cats, lost by 8
5 day break (do we include game day as a 'day'? This was really only four rest days between games, Saturday to Thursday)
Round 2 - beat collingwood (+1 extra day break) by 15 points
8-9 day break
Round 3 - lose to Essendon (2 days less break) by 4 points
7-8 day break
Round 4 - beat Tigers (1 less break day) by 7 points
5-6 day break
Round 5 - lose to giants (same break) by 1 point
4-5 day break
Round 6 - destroyed by the dawgs (1 extra day break)

That's a lot of words to say maybe in this case the Saints are just inconsistent and not that good?

bornadog
23-04-2024, 11:26 PM
Gather round the Nets?YEs the Nets in Adelaide

mjp
23-04-2024, 11:28 PM
What I'm saying here is that there are 100% losses related to the schedule. It isn't necessarily the number of games or short turnarounds or really any SINGLE thing...but there is no doubt an accumulation of factors that contributes to poor results.

Are some things an excuse? Of course. But some are real. The players from Melbourne and Freo arriving home after 10-days away and losing badly...yeah - I have no doubt they would have been distracted by "life stuff" upon arriving home and it contributed to poor outcomes. They are people and being single point focussed when away would quickly change upon arriving home - wives, girlfriends, kids, pets, houses, friends...there would be a LOT to catch up on and everyone would exhale upon arriving home...does that give them an excuse for losing? Nope. But I don't think it helped them in any way.

Saints playing 3 games in close proximity? Absolutely an issue...was our 'extra day' a big advvantage? Maybe not...but ONE DAY can make a big difference to a corked calf (for example)...doesn't change your status for the game (you still play) but the impact on output can be a LOT.

Having a state league group that plays on different days is another issue...different recovery schedules, different training weeks - it's not easy.

Is it everything? Nope. But it's not nothing and I don't think we are considering it enough. And it isn't about the fixture needing to be more equitable - it wont be - but WHEN and WHERE (home or away) that games are scheduled.

Axe Man
24-04-2024, 10:06 AM
Fair. I would claim though - in my defence - that Axe deliberately messed up the comparison between Melbourne and Freo to get me to bite. I probably shouldn’t have bitten quite as hard, but I still claim I was provoked.

I would have thought it was apparent from a long posting history I have never done anything of the sort.

I wasn't even considering the next games for Freo and Melbourne when they returned home. I guess that was your point but I didn't find it apparent from your first post. I guess reading and posting in the middle of working might not lead to optimum comprehension on my part.

mjp
24-04-2024, 10:45 AM
It's incredibly unfair that there are 8 teams who have already had a bye.

There have been 4 matches so far including teams who have had a bye playing teams with no bye. 3 have been won by the team off the bye.

There were also inexplicably 4 matches in round one with a team who played round zero vs a team who had not yet played. 3 out of 4 were won by the match hardened team.

Looking at the saints...
Round 1 - cats, lost by 8
5 day break (do we include game day as a 'day'? This was really only four rest days between games, Saturday to Thursday)
Round 2 - beat collingwood (+1 extra day break) by 15 points
8-9 day break
Round 3 - lose to Essendon (2 days less break) by 4 points
7-8 day break
Round 4 - beat Tigers (1 less break day) by 7 points
5-6 day break
Round 5 - lose to giants (same break) by 1 point
4-5 day break
Round 6 - destroyed by the dawgs (1 extra day break)

That's a lot of words to say maybe in this case the Saints are just inconsistent and not that good?

Well...I would say they have been super consistent.
5x VERY close games. 2 wins, 3 losses.
THEN - one catastrophe.

When you look at it, they very easily could have beaten Geelong, GWS and Essendon - they lost two of those by less than a kick and by just 8-points to the Cats - and been 5-0.

You can't stay 'UP' forever.

Again - the game vs us on a shorter than normal week after a tough loss? Is it any surprise what happened (in retrospect)??

mjp
24-04-2024, 10:49 AM
I would have thought it was apparent from a long posting history I have never done anything of the sort.


100% mate. Pretty sure I don't randomly fire shots either...as I noted, my lols comment was because I genuinely thought you were poking fun. It was't meant in anger or to be disagreeable in any way...it was more a "You've manipulated the story to support your hypothesis and I see what you've done there...how about this though..."...

Anyway. I still think it's a good thread! :-)

jazzadogs
26-04-2024, 07:40 PM
Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson at the ABC had an article on this topic yesterday. Because it's not behind a paywall, I'm just sharing the link but not the text. Link (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-25/how-rest-and-preparation-dictates-afl-performance/103762636?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other)

Key points are basically that yes a short break does statistically impact performance, and the distribution of short breaks is not even across the competition. We are sort of middle ground for this - 5 games with a shorter break, 3 with even break, and 5 days with a longer break.

Swans have 8 games with a longer break, and Hawks have 8 games where they have a shorter break than their opponent!