Can someone explain to me how we beat Brisbane?

[mjp]

I'm hoping I'm wrong but I can't see it.

We've been 'UP' since the Bombers game...and if you are an 'expected score' true believer (expected score says we should have beaten the bombers but for their incredible accuracy and our poor kicking at goal) you'd probably say we'd been up since the Melbourne game.

We've kind of reached 'breaking point' with injuries in our front half - we need to SCORE to beat the Lions.

Brisbane JUST had a week off...and are pretty healthy. The players they have lost are basically NOT coming back (a cluster of ACL's).

We haven't had a bye yet (somehow Sydney have had two, somehow BRISBANE have had two!) and the players have got to be feeling it and looking forward to the week off.

Given our forward line personnel issues we would need to win this 9-goals to 8 or something...I just can't see how we restrict Brisbane to that given the players they have available:

Morris and Lohman kick one between them.
Bailey gets one.
Ah Chee gets one.
Cameron gets two-three.
Daniher gets two-three.
Neale/Dunkley/McCluggage get one between them.

That's 8 - BEST CASE scenario...How do we get to 10? How do we score enough to win this??

West gets 1.
Bont gets 1.
Treloar and Macrae get 1 between them.
English gets 1.
JUH gets 2.
Lobb gets 1.

Garcia maybe 1??

Geez. I'm just not seeing it!!!

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Stick your bloody logic and well articulated and defensible argument, way, way up your backside Mike!:p


Obviously the solution is VDM is available, plays and kicks 2.

Nuff said.

[Grantysghost]

I'm hoping I'm wrong but I can't see it.

We've been 'UP' since the Bombers game...and if you are an 'expected score' true believer (expected score says we should have beaten the bombers but for their incredible accuracy and our poor kicking at goal) you'd probably say we'd been up since the Melbourne game.

We've kind of reached 'breaking point' with injuries in our front half - we need to SCORE to beat the Lions.

Brisbane JUST had a week off...and are pretty healthy. The players they have lost are basically NOT coming back (a cluster of ACL's).

We haven't had a bye yet (somehow Sydney have had two, somehow BRISBANE have had two!) and the players have got to be feeling it and looking forward to the week off.

Given our forward line personnel issues we would need to win this 9-goals to 8 or something...I just can't see how we restrict Brisbane to that given the players they have available:

Morris and Lohman kick one between them.
Bailey gets one.
Ah Chee gets one.
Cameron gets two-three.
Daniher gets two-three.
Neale/Dunkley/McCluggage get one between them.

That's 8 - BEST CASE scenario...How do we get to 10? How do we score enough to win this??

West gets 1.
Bont gets 1.
Treloar and Macrae get 1 between them.
English gets 1.
JUH gets 2.
Lobb gets 1.

Garcia maybe 1??

Geez. I'm just not seeing it!!!
Um hello.... Geez what more can young Lachlan do to get noticed!

[hujsh]

Honestly this reads more like a fantasy football argument than a real football argument. Goals aren't just assigned to players it's an outcome based from all lines of play. Collingwood would have been thinking the same thing about their forward line but it was ultimately a question of who controlled the midfield/how long does Daicos get to run the game.

We might not be as efficient going forward, we might waste good looks at goal, but I'm sure we'll create the opportunities if the team is 'on'. Macrae kicked two goals last week. McNeil too. Unexpected goal kickers pop up every week.

I'm not too worried about the bye either it's rarely an advantage to be the team coming off the bye.

This isn't to say we're set for an easy night. Still don't trust this team and neither of our remaining key forwards have been reliable shots at goal this year so it does have a stink of 'lost it with bad kicking' about it

[The Pie Man]

I’d love to see some stats around teams coming off the bye in the regular season - it feels like we struggle.

Brisbane gave up 7 goals to Gunston & Chol last time out - maybe the bye has helped them reset, but they’ve been pretty average to date, and we (despite the 1st quarter last week) have looked good for the first time in quite a while.

If there’s any complacency amongst the group, then they’re bereft of logic given our outs, and the opportunities those outs continue to present guys like Gallagher, Garcia & Sanders (and Lobb)


Will be very disappointed if we can’t get this done

[hujsh]

I have a better answer now:

Buku adds 3 goals so there you go

[Jeanette54]

I'm hoping I'm wrong but I can't see it.
That's 8 - BEST CASE scenario...How do we get to 10? How do we score enough to win this??



Geez. I'm just not seeing it!!!

Easy answer. We turn up, play like we mean it, and go home. QED.

[josie]

Treloar or Bont to kick multiple goals, McNeill at least one, Dale a sneaky one or two with those beautiful roosts. Lobb or English to kick at least 2. Williams or Daniel might snag one. Gallagher to finally kick at least one of those snaps. And time for Sanders to kick his debut goal too.

No way do we let hot pocket Dunks side win this easily. It’ll be a dogfight and the closer the game gets the more I’m thinking our dogs are gonna come out on top.

[Grantysghost]

Plus Lions are terrible.

4 wins and a draw from 11 games.

At Marvel im very confident.

I think Cameron is an obvious threat, Duryea probably gets the job to start. He hasn't been in awesone form, nor Bailey. They are missing Mcarthy so Rayner probably will be that guy.

JOD to Rayner, Keath to Hipwood, Jones to Daniher.

Lohmann is an interesting matchup, great little player.

The one place i worry is Libba and whether he comes back out of form. Their midfield goes ok, not amazing but ok. I think we have them covered. Neale the obvious one. Treloar and Bont's form should see us on top there.

Our forwards, we've never really relied on one or two so i see a decent spread like last week. Darcy kicked two so hopefully Lobb steps up with a couple to compensate.

[chef]

If we play like we have the last couple of weeks we'll be fine, just got to nail our chances.

[jeemak]

We really need English to get on the end of a few for us to cover both Naughton and Darcy, while JUH has to nail his opportunities.

Restricting Brisbane's scoring will be key, however. If we put the pressure on like we did in the last quarter against the Pies we will restrict their productivity and give ourselves a chance of jagging a few from multiple goal kickers.

[Grantysghost]

We really need English to get on the end of a few for us to cover both Naughton and Darcy, while JUH has to nail his opportunities.

Restricting Brisbane's scoring will be key, however. If we put the pressure on like we did in the last quarter against the Pies we will restrict their productivity and give ourselves a chance of jagging a few from multiple goal kickers.
Yes v good call re English, especially when Lobb rucks.
I wonder if we try to run Mcinerny into the ground with a higher rotation than normal?

[ledge]

They get Hipwood back, he can’t get a kick , watch him kick 4 . Or Daniher actually kick accurate.

[Mantis]

Um hello.... Geez what more can young Lachlan do to get noticed!

Do it more than once.

[MrMahatma]

Marra gets 3
English 1
Lobb 2
West 1
Bont 2
Libba 1
VDM2
Dale 1
Buku 2
Sanders 1

I’m sure I’ve forgotten a few. We win by 7-10 goals.
Relax. Enjoy the next bit… finals are coming. It’s our flag.

[whythelongface]

Marra gets 3
English 1
Lobb 2
West 1
Bont 2
Libba 1
VDM2
Dale 1
Buku 2
Sanders 1

I?m sure I?ve forgotten a few. We win by 7-10 goals.
Relax. Enjoy the next bit? finals are coming. It?s our flag.

We will spread the load. Maybe not win by 7-10 goals but we will should score enough to win. Williams may pop up with one or two, same with Gags. Marra may get a brace (though Andrews will be on him). Add McNeil to the list as well

[Bullies]

Lions for whatever reason not playing as they were last year. Coleman being out for the year has really hurt their run of half back and they haven't found a replacement. We are a big chance with the way we move the ball as they like to dictate the pace of the game.

[Scorlibo]

I'm also a bit worried that our outs are finally going to catch up with us.

Naughton, Darcy, Harmes, Richards, Weightman - these are five guys that have played significant roles in driving team performance forward in recent times. And yes, between them they've kicked 66 out of our 163 goals this season (40%).

Of course that doesn't mean that our scoring drops by 40%, but it is going to be a significant challenge for others to pick up the slack and hit the scoreboard.

A couple of added concerns: Khamis is likely playing forward for the first time this year (at AFL level) filling in Darcy's big shoes. Libba - big question marks over whether he'll be able to play his natural game.

Also - Brisbane are good. Much better than their ladder position at least. If we win it will be a big tick for our game plan and depth.

[mjp]

Honestly this reads more like a fantasy football argument than a real football argument.

Nah. Fantasy footy is most kicks wins...

Hang on - total kicks is the #1 win indicator in the history of the league!!

We need goal-kickers tonight...I just look at the team and don't see them. Jamarra is 'just' going (better last week) and my faith in Lobb is pretty minimal...no Weightman is going to count against us at some point - his replacements have been solid without ever showing the ability to kick goals...

Lastly - like I said we have been "UP" for a long time. With the bye ahead, this just turns on the alarm warnings and I can't see how we do it.

As for the comments about Marvel - it feels like (last week aside) it's been more of a disadvantage than an advantage to play there in recent times...I'm worried. And the stories about how McNeil (for example) is going to back up last week with another 2-goal effort...I'm not buying what you're selling.

[Mofra]

McColeman comes into the team after being the sub last week and kicks at least 2.
English kicks 2 as the Big O is good but not a 'transition' ruck.

Dale sneaks forward for a long range goal.

Problem solved.

[hujsh]

Nah. Fantasy footy is most kicks wins...

Hang on - total kicks is the #1 win indicator in the history of the league!!

We need goal-kickers tonight...I just look at the team and don't see them. Jamarra is 'just' going (better last week) and my faith in Lobb is pretty minimal...no Weightman is going to count against us at some point - his replacements have been solid without ever showing the ability to kick goals...

Lastly - like I said we have been "UP" for a long time. With the bye ahead, this just turns on the alarm warnings and I can't see how we do it.

As for the comments about Marvel - it feels like (last week aside) it's been more of a disadvantage than an advantage to play there in recent times...I'm worried. And the stories about how McNeil (for example) is going to back up last week with another 2-goal effort...I'm not buying what you're selling.

I don't think you followed my point if you think I'm saying McNeil will for sure kick 2 goals this week.

[lemmon]

I feel the same way. We've been up and in prime time for ages, the injuries are racking up, it feels like everyone else has had a rest except us, the weather's closing in and you imagine those players at the start (Gallagher, Sanders) or end (Jones, Treloar) of their careers are starting to crave a break and a beer.

I don't really have any expectation tonight and feel like 'going back to the well' again would make it an even bigger win than last week. This Brisbane midfield worries me, especially when fresh, and I feel like they could be running over the ground tonight.

The concern is that we haven't put ourselves in a position to sacrifice four points and still be in the hunt. We need to be up again tonight and probably next week if the season stays alive.

If we get up tonight, I think it'll be on the backs of our talented players - that's another Bont extravaganza and I just feel like we need a bag from Marra. Darcy and Naughton have been getting their flowers, but he's the man tonight. I think he has it in him to rise to that.

[merantau]

Every game from now on in is a big game. I am looking for big games from our name players. Get first hands on the ball, chase, harass, smother, tackle, get numbers around the contest. Don't turn the ball over especially in our back half. Sure hands, lots of run when we have the ball, kick straight.
Do most of that all of the time or do all of that most of the time and the result will take care of itself. A loss sees us at the back of the pack of Finals aspirants. A win places us firmly in the lead group. It's as simple as that.

[MrMahatma]

Bullish hope aside... us being favourites scares me no end. And I agree that, at some point, the outs start to hurt. If Darcy and Richards were in I'd feel we'd have enough firepower through the lines... but we're missing some of our very best/most important players at the moment. Plus we can't expect Bont to play like last week EVERY week. Feels like we might need him to this week though.

[Sedat]

Brisbane have looked good on paper all season but the reality is that many of their senior core have played like busteds since March. Of course that could easily change tonight (they are undeniably a very talented team) but 11 weeks is a pretty decent sample size of sub-par performance. Maybe they have privately conceded 2024 is now not a realistic premiership opportunity for them (they need top 4 and home finals to be a proper chance, and both look miles off) and they are in the business right now of premierships. Reloading next year with Coleman and Ashcroft back and the squad well-rested not having to compete deep into September like they have the last 6 years gives them a better shot at a flag than somehow squeaking into 8th this year.

[Testekill]

Our outs are pretty heavy but Lions have been pretty mediocre this year. Their run coming out of defence has completely collapsed without Coleman, none of their stars are firing like they did last year and they're a 3 goal worse team away from Brisbane.

[Mofra]

Our outs are pretty heavy but Lions have been pretty mediocre this year. Their run coming out of defence has completely collapsed without Coleman, none of their stars are firing like they did last year and they're a 3 goal worse team away from Brisbane.
Starcevich back is huge for them.

[Sedat]

Starcevich back is huge for them.
He's actually been in terrible form all season. I think Bobby Hill broke him in last year's GF - up till then he was a gun small defender.

[bornadog]

Brisbane away have been poor, except beating Melbourne in round 5. They have lost to Carlton, Freo, Pies, Cats. GWS, drew against Adelaide and lost to Hawks at Marvel before the bye.

They have issues kicking goals and are currently ranked 13th (we are 4th), but their defence has ben strong and ranked 3rd (we are 6th).

They do have issues with Centre Clearances ranked 15th to our 7th.

Dogs to win easily.

[Happy Days]

He's actually been in terrible form all season. I think Bobby Hill broke him in last year's GF - up till then he was a gun small defender.

We also have the ultimate counter play to a gun small defender in playing bad small forwards on purpose.

[Mofra]

He's actually been in terrible form all season. I think Bobby Hill broke him in last year's GF - up till then he was a gun small defender.
Form against the club that once let John Butcher kick six goals against them isn't a huge indicator of likely performance.
Majak "5 goals" Daw would agree too

[Sedat]

Form against the club that once let John Butcher kick six goals against them isn't a huge indicator of likely performance.
Majak "5 goals" Daw would agree too
So does Marty McGrath, Eddie Sainsbury, Luke Vogels, Nigel Fiegert, etc...

Starcevich really has been quite shithouse all season. Maybe we can do a reverse of the afore-mentioned nondescript names and 'McNeil' him tonight.

[jeemak]

So does Marty McGrath, Eddie Sainsbury, Luke Vogels, Nigel Fiegert, etc...

Starcevich really has been quite shithouse all season. Maybe we can do a reverse of the afore-mentioned nondescript names and 'McNeil' him tonight.

Or Jason Tutt him.

[The Pie Man]

We looked badly gassed from level 3, even when we did win possession the Lions defended the ground very well.

I just don’t like idea that we’ve been ‘up’ for a while so we’re due a dip. It’s excuses, it’s weak. It’s this group / this club all over.

[Testekill]

We have made Hipwood look like Carey in his prime

[bulldogtragic]

I'm hoping I'm wrong but I can't see it.

We've been 'UP' since the Bombers game...and if you are an 'expected score' true believer (expected score says we should have beaten the bombers but for their incredible accuracy and our poor kicking at goal) you'd probably say we'd been up since the Melbourne game.

We've kind of reached 'breaking point' with injuries in our front half - we need to SCORE to beat the Lions.

Brisbane JUST had a week off...and are pretty healthy. The players they have lost are basically NOT coming back (a cluster of ACL's).

We haven't had a bye yet (somehow Sydney have had two, somehow BRISBANE have had two!) and the players have got to be feeling it and looking forward to the week off.

Given our forward line personnel issues we would need to win this 9-goals to 8 or something...I just can't see how we restrict Brisbane to that given the players they have available:

Morris and Lohman kick one between them.
Bailey gets one.
Ah Chee gets one.
Cameron gets two-three.
Daniher gets two-three.
Neale/Dunkley/McCluggage get one between them.

That's 8 - BEST CASE scenario...How do we get to 10? How do we score enough to win this??

West gets 1.
Bont gets 1.
Treloar and Macrae get 1 between them.
English gets 1.
JUH gets 2.
Lobb gets 1.

Garcia maybe 1??

Geez. I'm just not seeing it!!!

No Hipwood with six I see.

[mjp]

No Hipwood with six I see.

Right.

We just played like a team that needed a week off though...

[Go_Dogs]

We got beaten up all over the ground.

Goal kicking is going to be a struggle until we get our forward line back. We need to continue to get goals from our midfield and particularly Bont. Richard’s coming back in will help us as it gives us some more options. I also wouldn’t mind trying Treloar off half back if we can play Dale forward for a few weeks. I know he’s been great and it’s disruptive to our back 7, but we just need a natural forward and Dale is one of the best on our list.

[mjp]

We got beaten up all over the ground.

Goal kicking is going to be a struggle until we get our forward line back. We need to continue to get goals from our midfield and particularly Bont. Richard’s coming back in will help us as it gives us some more options. I also wouldn’t mind trying Treloar off half back if we can play Dale forward for a few weeks. I know he’s been great and it’s disruptive to our back 7, but we just need a natural forward and Dale is one of the best on our list.

I get it but to be our best 'US' we need to make sure our best players are in their best spots.

I feel better about our chances vs Freo - even though two weeks in a row against teams coming off a bye seems pretty unfair to me!! - just because we had been 'UP' for so long (with Collingwood the crescendo) that a win vs Brisbane seemed basically impossible...with the drop away yesterday, we review, refresh and hit it again...throwing the magnets into the air and seeing where they land doesn't seem like a solution. Consistent, honest footy and our best players - Dale and Treloar amongst them - in their best spots.

[kruder]

Great call MJP just saw this thread! To the eye we were just so slow, lethargic is the word I was looking for. I read a few comments in the game day thread on how slow Freijah looked, worth noting his stats last week against the pies...


15.3km covered - Equal 2nd on the ground
2.5km at high speed - 5th
8.6kmph average offensive speed - 4th
8.9kmph avrage defensive speed - 3rd

As many have said we are now paying for not getting runs on the board early when we had a healthy list.