The run home

[angelopetraglia]

I don't recall a ladder as congested as this one. The Bulldogs are in 9th position. We are only percentage from 13th position and only six points from 3rd position! You can throw a blanket over 11 teams with eight games to play. A top four position is still up for grabs if we are good enough. We control our own destiny at this point.

Our run home.

Port - away AO
Blues - home Marvel
Cats - away Kardina
Swans - away SCG
Demons - home Marvel
Crows - away AO
North - home Marvel
GWS - home Ballarat

Out of our eight games:

We play the top of the ladder Swans and the clear second team in Carlton. These are going to be tough.

Then we have another four games that are really eight point games in Port, Cats, Demons and GWS. We need to win all of these. Two are away which make them tough games, but if we are a serious team, we just win these four games.

We then have only two games with teams not in contetion in the North and the Crows. We should get the job done against North, but the roadtrip to AO is never easy. These two are must win games.

You think 13 wins will be required to make finals (last year 12 wins and a draw made the eight). So we need five more wins to make the finals. If we concede the Swans and Blues games, but take the North and Crows games. We need to win three of those games against the other contenders in that group of 11.

The next month in partiuclar is going to be crucial. What a tough stretch. We need a minimum of two wins to still be in contention.

Bring it on.

[mjp]

You think 13 wins will be required to make finals (last year 12 wins and a draw made the eight). So we need five more wins to make the finals. If we concede the Swans and Blues games, but take the North and Crows games. We need to win three of those games against the other contenders in that group of 11.



I have a bad feeling about Adelaide on the run home.

All of the pressure is off - they're done - and I have a suspicion they are going to shape the 8.

[comrade]

It?s a brutal stretch but in 5 weeks you?d think we?re either well in the mix or completely out of contention.

In Lobb we Trust.

[angelopetraglia]

Callum Twomey

Hawthorn is the first team in history to be 13th on the ladder with a positive win-loss record (eight wins, seven losses).

Champion Data also shows that 11 teams within six points on the ladder is a first as well.

[bornadog]

Callum Twomey

Hawthorn is the first team in history to be 13th on the ladder with a positive win-loss record (eight wins, seven losses).

Champion Data also shows that 11 teams within six points on the ladder is a first as well.

Next few weeks this will start to sort out.

[mighty_west]

Apart from the 3 games in a row :

Blues - home Marvel
Cats - away Kardina
Swans - away SCG

I just don't think it's as tough a run as some may suggest, sure there will be tough games but we should cover most of them, we play well generally away v Port and they have their issues atm, Marshall is a big out for them.

The Dees at Marvel again, have many issues atm and we play well against them at Marvel, i expect a win.

The Crows could be a danger game but pound for pound we are a better side and our momentum should be building, North again then the Giants who have turned to dust for whatever reason after being one of the Prem favourites early in the piece.

Blue and Swans will be yeah....pretty tough, The Cats we should, but we won't.

[Topdog]

Apart from the 3 games in a row :

Blues - home Marvel
Cats - away Kardina
Swans - away SCG

I just don't think it's as tough a run as some may suggest,.

Thats 40% of our games left, looks tough.

[bornadog]

Thats 40% of our games left, looks tough.

If we are good enough we should be able to win anywhere

[ledge]

I look at it that if we don’t get in we aren’t good enough fullstop.
Which gets the Bevo talks going again as we can’t blame injuries except for the Swans game.

[Topdog]

If we are good enough we should be able to win anywhere

Oh absolutely true but that doesnt make a run in hard or easy.

We have made our run in hard due to our extremely poor start to the season.

[ledge]

Oh absolutely true but that doesnt make a run in hard or easy.

We have made our run in hard due to our extremely poor start to the season.

It’s Bevos MO

[Sedat]

We have made our run in hard due to our extremely poor start to the season.
What was extremely poor about our start? Essendon have been top 8 most of the season and Hawthorn are the hottest team in the comp and have been for 2 months. We sucked against Melbourne to be fair (I reckon we were sub-par against Geelong as well, except for 2 of the most ridiculous super-human games from Bont/Libba). We totally smashed Gold Coast, West Coast, St Kilda and Richmond. Freo was a very tight loss in Perth and they are top 4.

It's just a super hard comp in 2024 and every win is difficult and needs to be appreciated.

[Topdog]

Hawks were 1-6 when we played them with the only win being against North.
Essendon are rubbish and we should be beating them which followed a really poor loss to Geelong.

[Sedat]

Hawks were 1-6 when we played them with the only win being against North.
Essendon are rubbish and we should be beating them which followed a really poor loss to Geelong.
I was disappointed with both those losses but in context they were not "extremely poor" (although maybe they were for the Ch 9 media mafia who have Bevo in the gun).

For mine, we were 1 win under par getting to the bye - I don't think that's extremely poor.

[mighty_west]

Thats 40% of our games left, looks tough.

Well really all games are tough, we just look back against North, that said we SHOULD win 5 and possibly drop 3, that gives us what, 13 wins 52 points? if we don't make finals with that we'd be bloody unlucky.

[angelopetraglia]

Fox Sports - The Run Home link: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2024-the-run-home-after-round-18-predicted-ladder-top-eight-and-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture-latest-news/news-story/a48d213b1051c166efbcdf9934479f3d

WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 114.9%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 21: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Almost certainly in with four, slim chance they’re in with three

We said they had to win one of this tricky three-week block against Carlton, Geelong and Sydney... and they’ve already won one. Hard to overstate the importance of that win over the Blues, especially when you consider the Bulldogs’ absentee list, and now even if they drop their next two games Luke Beveridge’s side has a real shot at September. We would be very surprised if they missed the eight with 13 wins, given how good their percentage is, so beating Melbourne, Adelaide, North and GWS would be enough for finals footy. Of course that still leaves the Bulldogs in their trademark position of ‘just win these games in the final few weeks and you’ll be OK’, which is genuinely happening for a third straight season; last year they stuffed it up, and the year before that they snuck into eighth when Carlton lost that thriller to Collingwood. As we tweeted on Saturday, we rate the Dogs as a top-four team (though we can understand if you dispute that because of their inconsistency); a safer statement would be at their best they’re a top-four team, and nobody would want to play them in an elimination final. That confidence has us tipping them to make the eight (if only just).

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.75 wins, finishing 8th

[MrMahatma]

Fox Sports - The Run Home link: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2024-the-run-home-after-round-18-predicted-ladder-top-eight-and-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture-latest-news/news-story/a48d213b1051c166efbcdf9934479f3d

WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 114.9%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium

Round 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG

Round 21: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval

Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 24: GWS Giants at Mars Stadium

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest

How many more wins do they need to play finals? Almost certainly in with four, slim chance they’re in with three

We said they had to win one of this tricky three-week block against Carlton, Geelong and Sydney... and they’ve already won one. Hard to overstate the importance of that win over the Blues, especially when you consider the Bulldogs’ absentee list, and now even if they drop their next two games Luke Beveridge’s side has a real shot at September. We would be very surprised if they missed the eight with 13 wins, given how good their percentage is, so beating Melbourne, Adelaide, North and GWS would be enough for finals footy. Of course that still leaves the Bulldogs in their trademark position of ‘just win these games in the final few weeks and you’ll be OK’, which is genuinely happening for a third straight season; last year they stuffed it up, and the year before that they snuck into eighth when Carlton lost that thriller to Collingwood. As we tweeted on Saturday, we rate the Dogs as a top-four team (though we can understand if you dispute that because of their inconsistency); a safer statement would be at their best they’re a top-four team, and nobody would want to play them in an elimination final. That confidence has us tipping them to make the eight (if only just).

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.75 wins, finishing 8th

Watch us win the next 3 then lose to the Crows and Roos.

[comrade]

How can that be the 9th hardest draw?

The only better than 50/50 game is against North!

[DOG GOD]

How can that be the 9th hardest draw?

The only better than 50/50 game is against North!

That?s what I was thinking.
That?s surely a top 3 hardest.

We?d probably only start favourites against Adel and North

[Sedat]

How can that be the 9th hardest draw?

The only better than 50/50 game is against North!
Melbourne stink at Marvel - I know they have owned us for large parts since the 2021 GF but I would have us 60/40 to win all things being equal (especially if Gawn is still not back). Adelaide is a tricky assignment but we should also be marginally 60/40 favourite. I'd also have us slight favourites against GWS in Ballarat, notwithstanding they pipped us there last year.

Not easy but nor should it be - we'll earn it if we make it.

[Axe Man]

If we can steal one of the next 2 games it will take the pressure off, allowing 1 slip in the final month. Drop both as we will be expected to do and there's no margin for error.

[bulldogtragic]

If we can steal one of the next 2 games it will take the pressure off, allowing a 1 slip in the final month. Drop both as we will be expected to do and there's no margin for error.

The psychology is interesting. Do we want to get ahead and know we can drop one. Or. Lose the next few and k ow we have no option other than winning?

It’s hard to know what will psychologically motivate this group.

[angelopetraglia]

The way the ladder has worked out this year. We have a harder draw than first realised.

Who do we play twice?

GWS 7th
Demons 8th
Swans 1st
Cats 3rd
Freo 5th
NMFC 17th

So every team we play twice is currently in the eight except NMFC!!!

Swans and Cats are currently top four. Freo is 5th.

[Sedat]

The psychology is interesting. Do we want to get ahead and know we can drop one. Or. Lose the next few and k ow we have no option other than winning?

It’s hard to know what will psychologically motivate this group.
Week at a time - contest to contest.

[SonofScray]

Ladder predictor prior to this weekend I was doing had us consistently in 10th.

We’re 8th now.

Suspect we just miss, but if we don’t, we win the flag.

[hujsh]

Ladder predictor prior to this weekend I was doing had us consistently in 10th.

We’re 8th now.

Suspect we just miss, but if we don’t, we win the flag.

and after that... we sack Bevo!

[SonofScray]

and after that... we sack Bevo!

I agree.

[Mantis]

and after that... we sack Bevo!

After he collects his premiership medallion he says, ''I'm outta here''... then it's mic drop time.

[angelopetraglia]

This doesn't make for good reading. Record vs other top 13 teams ladder:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GS0uvdWaQAAbz92?format=jpg&name=medium

[bulldogtragic]

This doesn't make for good reading. Record vs other top 13 teams ladder:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GS0uvdWaQAAbz92?format=jpg&name=medium

But we don’t play a heap of those from here though right?

[azabob]

This doesn't make for good reading. Record vs other top 13 teams ladder:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GS0uvdWaQAAbz92?format=jpg&name=medium

AP can you explain it to me like I am five?

We have beaten five of those teams? Collingwood, GCS, Fremantle, GWS, Carlton

[angelopetraglia]

AP can you explain it to me like I am five?

We have beaten five of those teams? Collingwood, GCS, Fremantle, GWS, Carlton

Someone must of made a mistake. Supposedly it is the ladder if you only include results from the top 13 teams.

[azabob]

Someone must of made a mistake. Supposedly it is the ladder if you only include results from the top 13 teams.

Did they explain how they evened up how many games each team has played against the other top 13?

We have played 13 games whereas Port have played 11

[angelopetraglia]

Did they explain how they evened up how many games each team has played against the other top 13?

We have played 13 games whereas Port have played 11

No ...

[jeemak]

I'm going to be honest, I'm not at my cognitive best right now. Why is The Record vs The Cluster supposed to make me worried?

[bornadog]

This is a great video that looks at all the teams and the run home, and who the presenter thinks will make it.

Note: A ten minute watch


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmZIyEilCM4&ab_channel=AflInsight