Percentage

[1eyedog]

Is it just me or is anyone else a bit ah whatever about how much we win by, I didn't seem to care tonight at the game after I worked out that we had the game wrapped up. The 3rd quarter was fantastic to watch but after that I was a bit indifferent. We have a 2 point buffer from everyone below us and that won't change unless Richmond challenges for our spot or there is another draw. Does percentage mean anything or are big wins like tonight just used as incentive for next week?

[LostDoggy]

I love seeing big wins because we have never been a big winning margin side...

I dont like seeing us sitting inside the 8 with a % between 95 and 99 while everyone else is 102-130..

So bring on more beltings and keep that % up for as long as we can

[hujsh]

Draw has made it less likely to be important but i want as big a win a possible each weak.

[westdog54]

Is it just me or is anyone else a bit ah whatever about how much we win by, I didn't seem to care tonight at the game after I worked out that we had the game wrapped up. The 3rd quarter was fantastic to watch but after that I was a bit indifferent. We have a 2 point buffer from everyone below us and that won't change unless Richmond challenges for our spot or there is another draw. Does percentage mean anything or are big wins like tonight just used as incentive for next week?

Or worse still, we notch up another draw to bring us back to the pack.

A healthy percentage is a good insurance policy.

[Topdog]

I am still worried about our percentage because of the confidence it can bring the players.
After the 3rd qtr I just wanted to make sure we won by at least 60 points.

[The Coon Dog]

Given that there are so few draws in AFL footy it has almost made the concept of percentage meaningless this season. We'll either be 2 points ahead or below some other team.

[1eyedog]

Or worse still, we notch up another draw to bring us back to the pack.

A healthy percentage is a good insurance policy.

Very good point, I still keep cheering for goals in the last.

[hujsh]

Draw by our closest rival below us, Sydney, makes percentage important again.

[Topdog]

Sydney and North you would think will both be in the finals so yes percentage is very important again.

Mind you we should have no troubles beating the Swans for percentage.

[Scorlibo]

Sydney and North you would think will both be in the finals so yes percentage is very important again.

Mind you we should have no troubles beating the Swans for percentage.

The Swans are typically the best team when it comes to percentage because they play low scoring football, we will have lots of trouble beating the Swans for percentage if it comes down to that

The dome on a Sunday is cursed now, Bombers and Port to draw next week.

[LostDoggy]

I think that percentage is important even when it does not effect the ladder. if our percentage is good, not only does it mean we are winning, it means we are winning by alot and that is graet for a tems confidence.

[1eyedog]

Geez I stand corrected. Today's result puts the Roos and the Swans in the mix with us. Bring on big wins!:o

[Go_Dogs]

Geez I stand corrected. Today's result puts the Roos and the Swans in the mix with us. Bring on big wins!:o

Yep, said the same thing just 40 mins ago when the delayed game finished down here.

[mighty_west]

Our percentage only counts now with teams with a draw - Swans, North & Richmond.

We are on top of those teams with a handy buffer, both in percentage and points.

The Swans are close to us, but not a side that really blows sides away, so i wouldn't think their percentage will get that high.

Hawthorns percentage is virtually the same as ours, Geelongs is healthier, but both don't bother us with points won.

AFTER ROUND 6

3 - BULLDOGS - 139.10 - 22
5 - SYDNEY - 124.35 - 14
6 - NORTH - 104.48 - 14
10 - RICHMOND - 99.53 - 10

[Sedat]

Our percentage only counts now with teams with a draw - Swans, North & Richmond.

We are on top of those teams with a handy buffer, both in percentage and points.

The Swans are close to us, but not a side that really blows sides away, so i wouldn't think their percentage will get that high.

Hawthorns percentage is virtually the same as ours, Geelongs is healthier, but both don't bother us with points won.

AFTER ROUND 6

3 - BULLDOGS - 139.10 - 22
5 - SYDNEY - 124.35 - 14
6 - NORTH - 104.48 - 14
10 - RICHMOND - 99.53 - 10
The Swans are actually one club that can increase their percentage at a faster rate than anyone else because they restrict the scoring of their opponenets so much. They get a similar uplift in percentage from a 50 point win that we would get from an 80 point win. We have an OK buffer at the moment, but Sydney could eat into this quickly if they consistently continue to restrict their opponents to less than 10 goals a game.

[aker39]

The Swans are actually one club that can increase their percentage at a faster rate than anyone else because they restrict the scoring of their opponenets so much. They get a similar uplift in percentage from a 50 point win that we would get from an 80 point win. We have an OK buffer at the moment, but Sydney could eat into this quickly if they consistently continue to restrict their opponents to less than 10 goals a game.


Starting this week.

If the Swans were to beat us this week 90 points to 60, our % will be 129% and theirs will be 128%.

If the Swans were to beat us this week 110 points to 80, our % will be 128% and theirs will be 126%.

[1eyedog]

That's weird as we have had a win of 60 points and one of 90 odd. The Swans always seem to have a healthy average come season's end (as stated above) they don't kick big scores but they have bugger all kicked against them. I would love to beat them this week.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Starting this week.

If the Swans were to beat us this week 90 points to 60, our % will be 129% and theirs will be 128%.

If the Swans were to beat us this week 110 points to 80, our % will be 128% and theirs will be 126%.

But it works the other way, too.

If we beat them by 90 to 60, our % will be 140% and theirs will be 114%.

[ledge]

If we beat Sydney and North in the next 2 games percentage means jack, rather we win then percentage is irrelevant.
Looking at ladder now 3 teams are near enough 2 games in front already , we win next 2 and Adelaide might be the only team that worries us rest of the year.

[Dancin' Douggy]

Ahem,,,,, There may be more draws this year.
Percentage is always important. One percentage point could be the difference between a home or away final.

[Topdog]

If we beat Sydney and North in the next 2 games percentage means jack, rather we win then percentage is irrelevant.
Looking at ladder now 3 teams are near enough 2 games in front already , we win next 2 and Adelaide might be the only team that worries us rest of the year.

Very simplistic way of looking at things IMO. What if we beat Sydney and North but only win 13.5 games for the year. Then percentage MAY come into things.

[Sedat]

If we beat Sydney and North in the next 2 games percentage means jack, rather we win then percentage is irrelevant.
Looking at ladder now 3 teams are near enough 2 games in front already , we win next 2 and Adelaide might be the only team that worries us rest of the year.
It's better to put forward a hypothetical to demonstrate how percentage works and how it greatly disadvantages higher scoring teams:

To date in season 2008, Sydney are scoring 87 points and conceding 70 points a game. If they continued at this rate for the rest of the season, they would end up scoring 1914 points and conceding 1540 points, which a differential of +374 points. Their percentage would end up being 124.3.

The Bulldogs are currently averaging a staggering 134 points a game and conceding 96 - we are on track to almost break the 3,000 points for barrier for the season. Say this dropped back to a more realistic 113 points a game (giving us a season total of 2,486 points for), and we continued to concede 96 points a game (2112 points against for the season) - giving us exactly the same differential as the Swans of +374 points - our percentage would be 117.7, which is almost 7 percentage points less than Sydney's. Theoretically, Sydney could actually score 100 less points (1,814 for the season), concede the same points, and their percentage would be 117.8, still higher than ours, despite their differential between points for and against now being only +274 points, 100 less than ours. Very unfair on the higher scorring teams.

So if Sydney can make up the two games they are currently behind the Dogs and continue to win low scoring slugfests, their percentage has a greater capacity to rise at a faster rate that ours, if we continue to play free-wheeling high-scoring football.

[aker39]

^^^^^

Thanks for the analysis Sedat.

One question. I believe they calculate % different in the SANFL. Do you know how they calculate it.

[The Coon Dog]

^^^^^

Thanks for the analysis Sedat.

One question. I believe they calculate % different in the SANFL. Do you know how they calculate it.

It's a % of the total points scored.

If you won a game & the scores were 122 to 78 the you have scored 61% of the total points scored so your % would be 61, assuming it's round 1.

The following week, you score 94 & the other team scores 101 then your % is 54.68 (as you have scored 216 of the 395 points kicked).

[Sockeye Salmon]

^^^^^

Thanks for the analysis Sedat.

One question. I believe they calculate % different in the SANFL. Do you know how they calculate it.

We've been down this road before. They calculate it slightly differently but it doesn't make any difference in the end.

Instead of 'points for/points against x 100' they use 'points for/total points x 100'.

[Sedat]

^^^^^

Thanks for the analysis Sedat.

One question. I believe they calculate % different in the SANFL. Do you know how they calculate it.
No probs Aker39.

I believe the SANFL multiply their points for by 50 and the divide that number by points against, hence their mid-point is 50%. We mulitply our points for by 100 and the divide that number by the points against, so our mid-point is 100%. They also give their teams 2 points for a win and one point for a draw. EDIT: I clearly have no idea what I'm talking about!! :o

I've never understood why we don't just have points difference as the measuring stick when teams are locked on the same number of wins and losses. In soccer, goal difference works simply and easily, and it would be just as simple and effective in AFL - it would also take away the obvious advantage that lower scoring teams currently enjoy with the percentage model.

[Go_Dogs]

It's a % of the total points scored.

If you won a game & the scores were 122 to 78 the you have scored 61% of the total points scored so your % would be 61, assuming it's round 1.

The following week, you score 94 & the other team scores 101 then your % is 54.68 (as you have scored 216 of the 395 points kicked).

Better way of doing it imo.

[aker39]

It's a % of the total points scored.

If you won a game & the scores were 122 to 78 the you have scored 61% of the total points scored so your % would be 61, assuming it's round 1.

The following week, you score 94 & the other team scores 101 then your % is 54.68 (as you have scored 216 of the 395 points kicked).


Thanks TCD. I couldn't resist, so I've compared the top 8 teams using both calculations.

Geelong 146.17 59.37
Hawthorn 139.42 58.23
Bulldogs 139.10 58.17
Adelaide 115.53 53.60
Sydney 124.35 55.42
North 104.48 51.09
Pies 119.72 54.48
Brisbane 104.89 51.19

[Sockeye Salmon]

Thanks TCD. I couldn't resist, so I've compared the top 8 teams using both calculations.

Geelong 146.17 59.37
Hawthorn 139.42 58.23
Bulldogs 139.10 58.17
Adelaide 115.53 53.60
Sydney 124.35 55.42
North 104.48 51.09
Pies 119.72 54.48
Brisbane 104.89 51.19

What this shows is that it makes no difference either way.

[Sedat]

Under a points for model, the ladder would look like this (apologies for formatting):

W L D F A PD
Geelong 6 0 0 706 483 +223
Hawthorn 6 0 0 718 515 +203
Bulldogs 5 0 1 804 578 +226
Adelaide 4 2 0 610 528 +82
Sydney 3 2 1 526 423 +103
North Melb 3 2 1 583 558 +25
Collingwood 3 3 0 674 563 +111
Brisbane 3 3 0 622 593 +29

Interesting that we actually have the best differential between points for and against in the competition but not the best percentage. Both Hawthorn and Geelong have a better percentage than us but we are actually 23 and 20 points respectively ahead of them in the points for and against differential. Similarly Collingwood, who are also a high scoring team this year, are 5% behind Sydney but actually ahead of them in the differential between points for and against.

[ledge]

I say go for points differential, it keeps teams going for 4 quarters because they get a better look at how its panning out and how far ahead or away they are with a quick glance.
Also encourages more attacking football, maybe cutting back on this tempo footy everyone seems to have grabbed onto.
The way it is now its better to not score much but win. Totally wierd set up.

[Sedat]

Massively important win today to keep 3 steps ahead of Sydney - their percentage has now jumped to 130.0, which is only 1.6% less than ours. Their low scoring routs have dramatically increased their percentage in a very short space of time.

[1eyedog]

Massively important win today to keep 3 steps ahead of Sydney - their percentage has now jumped to 130.0, which is only 1.6% less than ours. Their low scoring routs have dramatically increased their percentage in a very short space of time.

Yep we cannot possibly go down the ladder if we keep winning, regardless of our percentage.

[GVGjr]

Massively important win today to keep 3 steps ahead of Sydney - their percentage has now jumped to 130.0, which is only 1.6% less than ours. Their low scoring routs have dramatically increased their percentage in a very short space of time.

Yes the Swans have turned it on a bit of late. They might be labeled as boring and too defensive minded but they can be brutal on under performing sides.

[LostDoggy]

Still 3 wins in front of Sydney at the moment.
At the moment whether we finish 3rd or 4th it won't matter with Geelong and Hawthorn in front of us.
I don't see 2 teams getting ahead of us for 5th spot.

[1eyedog]

Still 3 wins in front of Sydney at the moment.
At the moment whether we finish 3rd or 4th it won't matter with Geelong and Hawthorn in front of us.
I don't see 2 teams getting ahead of us for 5th spot.

I can see both Sydney and Adelaide getting ahead. We're still only a 1/3 of the way in.

[LostDoggy]

I can see both Sydney and Adelaide getting ahead. We're still only a 1/3 of the way in.

Basically we are 3 games ahead of both. If we drop 3 and they both drop none, then they deserve it. Its possible but I can't see it.

[GVGjr]

Basically we are 3 games ahead of both. If we drop 3 and they both drop none, then they deserve it. Its possible but I can't see it.

Adelaide are only 6 points (2 wins) behind aren't they and the Swans are 12 points behind with a strong percentage.

[Sedat]

Basically we are 3 games ahead of both. If we drop 3 and they both drop none, then they deserve it. Its possible but I can't see it.
Not the Crows. We are only the equivalent of 2 games ahead of them (1.5 games to be technical). Our percentage will be inferior to both of them if they catch us - Adelaide technically can't 'catch' us unless they have a draw, but you get my drift.

We would need to drop our level of performance by quite a way to lose 3 more games than the Swans for the rest of the season - or the Swans will need to play near-faultless football between now and Round 22. Both scenarios are not totally out of the question but the odds are heavily in our favour as a result of winning tight matches on tough road trips like the SCG and Subiaco.

[LostDoggy]

Adelaide are only 6 points (2 wins) behind aren't they and the Swans are 12 points behind with a strong percentage.

Sorry. Miscalculated. I'd still back us for a top 4 finish.

[bornadog]

Sorry. Miscalculated. I'd still back us for a top 4 finish.

Three games clear of 5th, we should make top four, but long way to go.

[ledge]

Win next week and good chance we could be 4 games clear of 5th depending on other games of course.
Its becoming a 3 horse race.
Wont 5th to 8th spot go down to the wire at this rate, thats where percentage will tell for those sides and hopefully we can just sit back and watch them all play "Elimination finals footy" 4 games before the actual finals begin.

[craigsahibee]

Are we starting to get ahead of ourselves? One week at a time and KTLOI.

[1eyedog]

Win next week and good chance we could be 4 games clear of 5th depending on other games of course.
Its becoming a 3 horse race.
Wont 5th to 8th spot go down to the wire at this rate, thats where percentage will tell for those sides and hopefully we can just sit back and watch them all play "Elimination finals footy" 4 games before the actual finals begin.

It would be excellent to have the double chance, although it would be even better to finish top 4 and win our first final putting us in a prelim, now who's getting ahead of themselves?

[Sedat]

It would be excellent to have the double chance, although it would be even better to finish top 4 and win our first final putting us in a prelim, now who's getting ahead of themselves?
That ultimately didn't help us in '97 or '98 unfortunately :(

[1eyedog]

That ultimately didn't help us in '97 or '98 unfortunately :(

Yeah only because goal umpires are STOOPID! :mad:

[Topdog]

Are we starting to get ahead of ourselves? One week at a time and KTLOI.

Kind of but we are in a position now were we will 95% make the finals and probably 75% make the top 4. Of course anything can happen but it would be a pretty poor season from now if we fail to make the top 5 (yes i said 5)

[BulldogBelle]

Speaking of percentages and not from our team...but Geelong have dropped a massive 19% tonight after their shock loss to Collingwood.

[1eyedog]

Speaking of percentages and not from our team...but Geelong have dropped a massive 19% tonight after their shock loss to Collingwood.

I know. They are down around 125% now, but that's what happens after getting belted 13 goals. I can't believe Collingwood belted Geelong by 13 goals!

[GVGjr]

I know. They are down around 125% now, but that's what happens after getting belted 13 goals. I can't believe Collingwood belted Geelong by 13 goals!

A guy I work with bet $100 on Collingwood yesterday and got something like 4 to 1. I wonder how much it would have paid for over 39 points? He barracks for Carlton so it wasn't like it was just blind faith either.

Impressive win by the Pies and it's a good reminder for us how one bad loss could wreck a number of good weeks percentage wise.

[LostDoggy]

With all the upsets this weekend - surely we won't add another one tomorrow:eek: I get a bit worried when this happens, not to mention my footy tipping is looking crap.:(

[hujsh]

With all the upsets this weekend - surely we won't add another one tomorrow:eek: I get a bit worried when this happens, not to mention my footy tipping is looking crap.:(

0 from 3 at one stage.

now 1 from 5

[BulldogBelle]

I know. They are down around 125% now, but that's what happens after getting belted 13 goals. I can't believe Collingwood belted Geelong by 13 goals!

Yes, it was a big surprise...almost like tonight with Westcoast beating Adelaide by 50 points or so. Now an opportunity presents itself for us to move up another rung on the ladder tomorrow. Fingers crossed!

[1eyedog]

With Adelaide and Geelong both losing, yes, it's a huge chance to consolidate top 4 now, but can we do it? Boogey game today anything could happen, judging buy this round though, anything could happen at anytime.

[hujsh]

With Adelaide and Geelong both losing, yes, it's a huge chance to consolidate top 4 now, but can we do it? Boogey game today anything could happen, judging buy this round though, anything could happen at anytime.

Chance missed:(

[Sedat]

Sydney's percentage is now ahead of ours. After Round 10, we could be only a game clear of them.

We blew a big chance to put some serious dstance between us and the chasing pack yesterday.

[1eyedog]

We could seriously come crashing back down to earth by round 10. I'm not too worried though and am still looking at a top 4 finish considering Adelaide lost as well. North are a pretty decent side, they get the best out of themselves, but if we play like we did yesterday over the next 3 weeks both Adelaide and Sydney will be above us.

[Topdog]

We could seriously come crashing back down to earth by round 10. I'm not too worried though and am still looking at a top 4 finish considering Adelaide lost as well. North are a pretty decent side, they get the best out of themselves, but if we play like we did yesterday over the next 3 weeks both Adelaide and Sydney will be above us.

and if Adelaide play like they did on Saturday night they will be out of the 8.

Ditto Geelong and Friday Night.

[1eyedog]

Considering the Crows had a gutsy win over the Bombers last night if we lose this one and Sydney also win this weekend we come right back to the pack. Sydney's percentage is better than ours as well. So let's hope we have a win today or we may find ourselves in 5th spot in a fortnight when really we should have consolidated 2nd spot with a win over North Melbourne and be playing for top spot today.

[Sedat]

After today's demolition of Richmond, Sydney now has the best percentage in the competition by 6%. We are still 2 games clear of them but they are coming.

[LostDoggy]

That Sydney game was a bore fest.

[Raw Toast]

That Sydney game was a bore fest.

I loved listening to it, especially up until the 20min mark of the second quarter....:)

[1eyedog]

I loved listening to it, especially up until the 20min mark of the second quarter....:)

Me too, loved seeing the Tigers get killed. That *&^*%# up their average Tony:D

[BulldogBelle]

After today's demolition of Richmond, Sydney now has the best percentage in the competition by 6%. We are still 2 games clear of them but they are coming.

Yes, I thought the same thing when I was looking at the ladder yesterday evening. We just have to keep being one step ahead of them.

[LostDoggy]

I loved listening to it, especially up until the 20min mark of the second quarter....:)

Agreed but after that there was so much broken play that it was difficult to watch.

[ledge]

Yes, I thought the same thing when I was looking at the ladder yesterday evening. We just have to keep being one step ahead of them.

Would rather we kept it at 2 steps ahead and 4 steps ahead of the rest under them.