IF it's the hope that kills you...

[mjp]

THEN:

....if we are going to fall apart in Ballarat next Sunday, I would prefer it just ended this week against North.

So tired of these end of season 'make or miss' (with no more than the bottom of the 8 and mediocrity the ultimate goal!) games...

We play some spectacular footy - and some terrible footy - and whilst I'm not pushing for change if this group doesn't play finals there really SHOULD be some. I know I defended the group after the Adelaide game with some "it really wasn't that bad" type comments (and it wasn't) - at the same time the 15 minutes after half time was not the performance of a team that was DESPERATE to leave their mark on the season.

So - there you have it Dogs. If next week is in the 'MAYBE' category and playing really focussed, intent footy is only a 50-50 shot, then just let North have the win this week...let it end in frustration rather than despair.

[Happy Days]

I’ve actually come around to the thinking that beating the Giants, who we all predicted would be good as hell at the start of the year and are on a full on rampage right now, would actually be a hell of a win and earning it in blood.

On the other hand, I’m not willing to indulge the possibility of losing to North because I’ve been babying my expectations of this team of stupid idiots all year and we just can’t be losing that game, especially now that North’s best player is missing.

[Sedat]

All season, it has felt like 2024 is a different iteration of the Dogs than 2022 and 2023, even if the results have been similar. I am confident we will win both last 2 H&A matches comfortably and enter the finals in 5th/6th and have a real chance to make a run in September.

The losses to Hawthorn and WC late last season were very panicky and reeked of a team that was far too reliant on their captain - they were Bont or bust performances. We are a different team this year in many facets, and I think we will show this in the next fortnight.

[bornadog]

We will win this week and should be assured a finals appearance. Win this week and GWS will be toast.

[Axe Man]

Beat North and Carlton with half their VFL side lose to West Coast and we are in. Round 24 v GWS whilst still very important won't be quite so panic inducing.

[bornadog]

Beat North and Carlton with half their VFL side lose to West Coast and we are in. Round 24 v GWS whilst still very important won't be quite so panic inducing.

Last night on talking Footy they showed the players out of Carlton and part of best 23 - there are 10 out - hopefully WC delivers the blow they gave us last year, except we had no excuse.

[Countrydog5]

We'll win this week, especially after last weekends poor performance and a deserved kick up the rump. The thing we have to cross our fingers for is other results going our way so we know we're playing finals going into the last round. I'll almost bet that if we're locked into the 8 after next round, we'll do GWS away comfortably. On the other hand if we have to win in Ballarat to play finals, i'll be very very nervous.

I'll be barracking so hard for a West Coast win i'll need to have a shower as soon as it's done to wash the shame away.

[MrMahatma]

I posted it a couple of months back before the Carlton match. "Watch us win the next 4 then lose to Crows and North".

I actually don't think we were THAT bad against the Crows but was disappointed.

RE: Hope killing you. I had hope after our last 6 weeks and that's a bit dashed now. I don't think I'd reach similar hope levels again until we won a first final. So I hope we win this week and head into the GWS one with finals on the line. I'll probably be less "hopeful" then.

[mjp]

I'll be barracking so hard for a West Coast win i'll need to have a shower as soon as it's done to wash the shame away.

I will never barrack for West Coast.

[Sedat]

We haven't been sub-par 2 weeks in a row all season. Every time we've turned in a poor one we have immediately responded:

* R1 uncompetitive v Melb followed by 8 goal smashing of GC
* Bad loss to Essendon following by towelling up St Kilda
* Hawk implosion followed by destruction of Richmond then comprehensively beating GWS on their home deck
* Brisbane home loss followed by 11 goal hammering of Freo

It would be a significant outlier in 2024 if we didn't respond appropriately this week.

[Mofra]

I'm still a little concerned about Xerri this week. He's the form ruck of the competition, even accounting for Gawn and for ROB's hit-out numbers.
I can never hope for a Bulldogs loss though and I really want us to make finals as it finally gives Liam Jones the chance to experience one.

[Axe Man]

I'm still a little concerned about Xerri this week. He's the form ruck of the competition, even accounting for Gawn and for ROB's hit-out numbers.
I can never hope for a Bulldogs loss though and I really want us to make finals as it finally gives Liam Jones the chance to experience one.

Xerri had the better of English last time and received coaches votes and we were always in control of that game.

He will likely be the dominant ruck again on Sunday but so long as we don't allow him to go nuclear it shouldn't tip the scales.

[bornadog]

Xerri had the better of English last time and received coaches votes and we were always in control of that game.

He will likely be the dominant ruck again on Sunday but so long as we don't allow him to go nuclear it shouldn't tip the scales.

I am happy Sheezal isn't playing - he creates a lot of their goals

[Rocket Science]

In a particularly evil bit of fixturing, should we beat North then fall to the fluoro pricks we could still finish 8th provided Freo drop their last two versus said fluoro pricks (away) and the Power (at home) which of course the AFEL have plugged in as the very last home-and-away game of the season with a 6:10 Sunday bounce, just to really prolong the trauma.

Gee how good's footy?

[azabob]

FWIW, Carlton will beat West Coast this week, but that is for another thread...

Back to the OP, if it all comes crumbling down what change should there be? The only leaver left is a high-profile player or the coach.

[mighty_west]

We haven't been sub-par 2 weeks in a row all season. Every time we've turned in a poor one we have immediately responded:

* R1 uncompetitive v Melb followed by 8 goal smashing of GC
* Bad loss to Essendon following by towelling up St Kilda
* Hawk implosion followed by destruction of Richmond then comprehensively beating GWS on their home deck
* Brisbane home loss followed by 11 goal hammering of Freo

It would be a significant outlier in 2024 if we didn't respond appropriately this week.

This is actually a really good point, we have bounced back each time after a loss , we haven't just limped over the line but hammered our opponents, to me that shows something, something we haven't seen over the past few seasons and i know we all focus on our own team but it's the trend this season for all of the top 12 sides, the AFL crave a strong even comp, they finally have one, even the cellar dwellers aren't that bad, yeah ok you can pencil Richmond in with a win but they've also had many injuries most weeks.

I'm at a point now where that i know our team can be the best team in the comp and is still developing in some parts especially the forward line, we play like that and we beat anyone anywhere, Geelong at Geelong who own us at Kardinia, Swans in Sydney have looked unstoppable most games at the SCG, i'm also pretty confident we will only better in the following years to come.

[SonofScray]

We'll be OK.

Its not beyond us to choke across two games, but I think the boys have out together enough good football for that to be an unlikely occurrence.

Agree with Sedat, mostly, in that this team is arriving at similar ends by different means and the means are a lot more palatable than they have been the previous two years. I'm expecting us to get there, and do something.

Ruling out a full scale collapse.

Not ruling out a final campaign akin to the GWS 2019 and Freo 2023 shameful finals losses.
Likewise, believe a 2016, 2021 run at it can't be ruled out either.


Earlier in the year, desperate for change and fed up with the hamster wheel Bevo has built, I said flag or bust. Now I'm thinking finals and a good win plus, a strong performance in the second week and see what happens.

[mjp]

We haven't been sub-par 2 weeks in a row all season. Every time we've turned in a poor one we have immediately responded:


...no argument from me...that's not what I'm saying.

If our plan is to lose next week vs the Giants, I would just prefer that we lost this week and that way I could go about my life a week earlier. Like I said, if it's the hope that kills you - well, let's just shoot Bambi now.

[Mantis]

...no argument from me...that's not what I'm saying.

If our plan is to lose next week vs the Giants, I would just prefer that we lost this week and that way I could go about my life a week earlier. Like I said, if it's the hope that kills you - well, let's just shoot Bambi now.

Why would they be confident in beating us?

We've won 5 of our last 6 against GWS with the only one being last year at Ballarat when we played them off the park until injuries hobbled us.

They won't be beating us.

[jeemak]

This is a very strange thread.

[GVGjr]

This is a very strange thread.

I was getting George and Jerry vibes about hope.


https://youtu.be/eKo2l3FFhUs

[GVGjr]

Those wins increased people's expectations on the season and the loss last week inserted a level of doubt back in many supporters.
It's all part of the roller coaster ride that many Western Bulldog supporters have gotten used to.

[Grantysghost]

I also prefer it to be over this week.

Winning from outside the top 4 doesn't happen and last week was the game we had to change what we've done previously to finally give ourselves every opportunity to make the top 4.

Unfortunately what we have here is Schrodinger's Top 4. As soon as you look in the box it's dead.

As MJP alluded too, that stretch after half time last week was abysmal, we had nothing. Mentally just still recovering from 21.

I think we will scrape over the line this week, we've had our 4 weeks of mania that luckily happened in September/October in 16 when Bevo goes to the mattresses and pulls something magical from somewhere.

Anyone that thinks we will easily account for GWS hasn't watched them play of late. They are my flag favs atm and will get Kelly and Coniglio back.

I had expectation for exactly one week this year.

https://i.postimg.cc/SKgw3pGY/Screenshot-2024-08-15-155818.png (https://postimages.org/)

[The Adelaide Connection]

FWIW, Carlton will beat West Coast this week, but that is for another thread...

Back to the OP, if it all comes crumbling down what change should there be? The only leaver left is a high-profile player or the coach.

I told everyone at work that Carlton and Essendon were overrated and would miss finals when they sat at 2nd and 3rd

-AND-

I locked in my tips that Carlton would lose to WC before their 1 million injuries.

More than ever before I can?t see how they beat WC in Perth.

[Mantis]

Anyone that thinks we will easily account for GWS hasn't watched them play of late. They are my flag favs atm and will get Kelly and Coniglio back.



Besides kicking straight for goal what has caught your eye with them?

For pretty much every KPI they're bottom 6 but are winning due to a potentially unsustainable conversion rate which includes scores of 18.8, 17.6 (12.12), 14.5 (6.14), 13.7 (12.11) & 13.4 (8.16) in their recent run of wins. (Opposition scores in brackets)

They're frauds.

[Grantysghost]

Besides kicking straight for goal what has caught your eye with them?

For pretty much every KPI they're bottom 6 but are winning due to a potentially unsustainable conversion rate which includes scores of 18.8, 17.6 (12.12), 14.5 (6.14), 13.7 (12.11) & 13.4 (8.16) in their recent run of wins. (Opposition scores in brackets)

They're frauds.

#1 pressure team in the comp. Best key forward. Awesome midfield, great defence. How are they frauds?

They just beat the premiership favourites on their home deck.

Granted it's a tight year and anything can happen but they are clearly a good side.

[bornadog]

Those wins increased people's expectations on the season and the loss last week inserted a level of doubt back in many supporters.
It's all part of the roller coaster ride that many Western Bulldog supporters have gotten used to.

We have won 9 of our last 13 matches - fairly consistent since the start of the year when we went 3 wins 5 losses. including two losses by 4 points and 7 points.

[Sedat]

Besides kicking straight for goal what has caught your eye with them?

For pretty much every KPI they're bottom 6 but are winning due to a potentially unsustainable conversion rate which includes scores of 18.8, 17.6 (12.12), 14.5 (6.14), 13.7 (12.11) & 13.4 (8.16) in their recent run of wins. (Opposition scores in brackets)

They're frauds.
Yep, they have been incredibly efficient which is not sustainable over the course of a 3-4 week finals campaign, where there is a lot of dirty ball. They are dangerous with their movement from D50 to F50, and they also have the best contested mark in the competition who is clunking them within 30m of goal (hence the high conversion efficiency). They are way too Hogan-reliant at the moment though.

[Axe Man]

#1 pressure team in the comp. Best key forward. Awesome midfield, great defence. How are they frauds?

They just beat the premiership favourites on their home deck.

Granted it's a tight year and anything can happen but they are clearly a good side.

They are going well but Brisbane should never have lost that game. 4.7 to 0.1 at quarter time - the game should have been over. Hawthorn were thoroughly outplaying them a couple of weeks back before they inexplicably stopped in the last quarter and GWS ran them down. Lose those 2 games and they teetering on the edge of the 8. They certainly seem to finish games well.

[bornadog]

They are going well but Brisbane should never have lost that game. 4.7 to 0.1 at quarter time - the game should have been over. Hawthorn were thoroughly outplaying them a couple of weeks back before they inexplicably stopped in the last quarter and GWS ran them down. Lose those 2 games and they teetering on the edge of the 8. They certainly seem to finish games well.

Lose the next two and GWS could be out of the 8 depending on % and other results - that is how close this year is

[Grantysghost]

They are going well but Brisbane should never have lost that game. 4.7 to 0.1 at quarter time - the game should have been over. Hawthorn were thoroughly outplaying them a couple of weeks back before they inexplicably stopped in the last quarter and GWS ran them down. Lose those 2 games and they teetering on the edge of the 8. They certainly seem to finish games well.
Yeah remember Ballarat! Think they've proven you have to play four quarters to beat them.

[Grantysghost]

Lose the next two and GWS could be out of the 8 depending on % and other results - that is how close this year is

Win this week they're guaranteed top 5. They won't drop Freo at home.

[DOG GOD]

One thing that could generate a NM win is their knack of kicking 10.1 and our knack of kicking 3.8.
This could well and truly be the difference.
I’m sticking with my NM prediction by 1 pt, factoring in the above.

[Jeanette54]

Yep, they have been incredibly efficient which is not sustainable over the course of a 3-4 week finals campaign, where there is a lot of dirty ball. They are dangerous with their movement from D50 to F50, and they also have the best contested mark in the competition who is clunking them within 30m of goal (hence the high conversion efficiency). They are way too Hogan-reliant at the moment though.

Looking at the GWS footage on AFL360, Kingy showed just how hard GWS work to give Hogan his one-on-one opportunities, so close to goal. Given Liam Jones' mobility it may be prudent to give Lobb the job on Hogan, and let Jones roam free to intercept before Hogan gets his chance. Lobb is a very strong competitor in a one-one-one situation.

[kruder]

Why would they be confident in beating us?

We've won 5 of our last 6 against GWS with the only one being last year at Ballarat when we played them off the park until injuries hobbled us.

They won't be beating us.

I agree!

I'm more confident against GWS than Norrrrfff this week, we will still seriously impact this season.

[Scorlibo]

Looking at the GWS footage on AFL360, Kingy showed just how hard GWS work to give Hogan his one-on-one opportunities, so close to goal. Given Liam Jones' mobility it may be prudent to give Lobb the job on Hogan, and let Jones roam free to intercept before Hogan gets his chance. Lobb is a very strong competitor in a one-one-one situation.

Idk J54, I reckon Jones is the only one with the strength to go with Hogan, who is an absolute brute.

[1eyedog]

No way Norf beat us on Sunday but it would.hilarious if they did. Hilarious as in taking a crap in your bin at home and then lighting it.

GWS hate Ballarat. Don't they?

[Go_Dogs]

IF? after the last time this team suffered a bad loss in Adelaide it went on a rampage, winning 4 in a row including 3 comprehensive victories against the three form sides of the competition

THEN ? Bevo will be hoping the team can do a few better and finish the year with 6 straight wins. One week at a time, but this side has the potential to go all the way.