Looking Forward - List Management Stuff

[Sockeye Salmon]

We currently have 15 blokes on our list born in 1982 or earlier. Except for Street, the other 14 are best 22 players.

It takes 4-5 years before draftees become serious contributors.

Add in Daniel Cross (born in 83) and 15 of our current best 22 will be 30+ in 5 years time.

I've tried to look forward by naming a side made up entirely of players born in 85 or later (I've left out Skipper and Callan as irrelevant). I haven't included Lynch, O'Shea or Wight as I think they won't be on the list next year, let alone 5 years time.


B: Addison, Everitt, Tiller
HB: Stack, Williams, Reid
C: Ray, Griffen, Hill
HF: Higgins, Grant, O'Keefe
F: Harbrow, Boumann, Cordy
R: Minson, Cooney, Ward
I: Wood, Mulligan,


A few of these guys have been picked on blind faith, especially Boumann. Eade has said that he thinks that Stack will be a decent player, the rest (bar Cordy) have shown a bit at Willi at least. A few will fall by the wayside and a couple of draftees we don't know about yet will turn out to be good players.


Backline

There's no-one there who could take a big, strong forward. Everitt and Williams will fill out more but will always rely on agility rather than strength. Tiller needs to keep improving if he is to still be on the list in 5 years time.

I don't see another Gilbee with elite kicking skills to play HB.


Midfield

Will Minson ever cut it as a no. 1 ruck? Will Cordy? We have a few ball winners, do we have enough ball users, someone with plenty of pace who can kick? We'll still have a pretty decent midfield - Cooney, Griffen, Ward, Higgins and Ray will be OK.


Forwards

Boumann is playing VFL reserves, that's a long way from AFL. Grant looks like he can handle VFL OK, let's hope he can make the step up. Cordy is supposed to be more forward than ruck. All our KP forward hopes rest on kids who have played about 10 VFL senior games between them.


5 picks - Cordy and 2 other big guys, Mitch Banner and someone quick.

[strebla]

As always i will defend Cam Wight I believe he is such a flexible player and well well worth the perseverence he needs time but so did Peter Fosteer

[Mofra]

We currently have 15 blokes on our list born in 1982 or earlier. Except for Street, the other 14 are best 22 players.

It takes 4-5 years before draftees become serious contributors.

Now there's a serious can of worms in itself.

Guys like Cooney, Griffen, Higgins etc. would be serious contenders in years 2 or 3.
If Ward isn't a strong contributer in 2010 (his 3rd year) I'll eat two hats. Addison is in his 3rd (?) season and was planted firmly in our best 22 as a hard-at it defensive player.

I'd be surprised if in 5 years time at least a handful of kids we haven't drafted yet aren't in our best 22 - and this discounts trades we may take in the future.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Now there's a serious can of worms in itself.

Guys like Cooney, Griffen, Higgins etc. would be serious contenders in years 2 or 3.
If Ward isn't a strong contributer in 2010 (his 3rd year) I'll eat two hats. Addison is in his 3rd (?) season and was planted firmly in our best 22 as a hard-at it defensive player.

I'd be surprised if in 5 years time at least a handful of kids we haven't drafted yet aren't in our best 22 - and this discounts trades we may take in the future.

This year is Cooney's 5th.
Next year will be Higgin's 4th and, while he looks promising, he is yet to be a good preformer week in, week out.
Addison has been holding his place but the entire time has been on the verge of missing out. He still has never polled a Marmo vote.
And KPP's take even longer!

[bornadog]

Great analysis SS, just goes to show how far ahead teams need to plan. Teams like Essendon, Melbourne never did this as well as us in the Wallett years. The result is bottom four and then a struggle to rebuild. With two new teams coming in its going to be tough to rebuild.

Your analysis also shows where we may have deficiencies and where we need to plan. I don't believe Everitt is the man for fullback, I see him as a future CHF. Also your backline is very short compared to today, as other than FB and CHB only Tiller is over 190cm, so we need to look at that area as well. Stack could go to a HFF, Cordy as the second ruckman leaving a spot for another tall in the backline.

[Go_Dogs]

A little bit simplistic, but it really just shows how young our list is, and how well positioned we are for the future. The fact that you have basically named a team up there with a bunch of guys no older than 23 is a good sign. Most of these guys have between 7-12 years left in the system, over which period you'd hope we can draft a few more good players.

It just emphasises the point that you have to continually top up with quality players covering a range of positions, and be prepared to trade when you have to, to keep the list looking good.

A few more KP (either end) and gun midfielders would be lovely, but most clubs wouldn't say no. I'm pretty happy with the structure of the list at the moment.

[Bulldog Revolution]

This year is Cooney's 5th.
Next year will be Higgin's 4th and, while he looks promising, he is yet to be a good preformer week in, week out.
Addison has been holding his place but the entire time has been on the verge of missing out. He still has never polled a Marmo vote.
And KPP's take even longer!

I think its an interesting analysis of the list SS, but:

I dont think there is any doubt Higgins will be a consistent performer, and if injury hadn't ruined 2 of his 3 seasons he'd be there already in my estimations

I think Addison arrived nicely this year, he still has some flaws in his game, but if all our recruits could dish out the tough stuff, or deal with it the way he has in their third year on the list then we will be in very good shape

The lack of talls for me is still a major worry

[Sockeye Salmon]

I dont think there is any doubt Higgins will be a consistent performer, and if injury hadn't ruined 2 of his 3 seasons he'd be there already in my estimations



Just like McMahon? And Power? And Faulkner?

Every early draft pick is a 'certainty' to be a star according to supporters. There were plenty on the internet raving about how good Faulkner was going to be.

The fact is that so far Higgins has achieved very little. He may end up a star, I certainly hope so, but at this stage he's just another promising talent.

[strebla]

Just like McMahon? And Power? And Faulkner?

Every early draft pick is a 'certainty' to be a star according to supporters. There were plenty on the internet raving about how good Faulkner was going to be.

The fact is that so far Higgins has achieved very little. He may end up a star, I certainly hope so, but at this stage he's just another promising talent.

Cam Faulkner was disapointing but I believe Higgins is way ahead of all three in what he has done when he is on the park looking forward to a big september from Higgins and Hill I think the next month could really define their careers

[Bulldog Revolution]

Just like McMahon? And Power? And Faulkner?

Every early draft pick is a 'certainty' to be a star according to supporters. There were plenty on the internet raving about how good Faulkner was going to be.

The fact is that so far Higgins has achieved very little. He may end up a star, I certainly hope so, but at this stage he's just another promising talent.

McMahon is the fairest comparison of them, as Higgins in my eyes has already shown more in his first 3 injury interrupted seasons than Power and Faulkner did in their first 3.

But if Higgins does not address some of his deficiencies he may end up being nothing more than a McMahon - a flawed offensive weapon. So far injury more than anything has held him back.

[LostDoggy]

I know what you are saying SS, but it doesnt really matter either way. The only way to build a better list to give the recruiting team as much cash as they need and let them pick 6 kids every year. No fast fixes unfortunately. Helps if your are smart like West Coast and off load some quality players, so you can bring through a big batch of good youngsters.

[Go_Dogs]

I know what you are saying SS, but it doesnt really matter either way. The only way to build a better list to give the recruiting team as much cash as they need and let them pick 6 kids every year. No fast fixes unfortunately. Helps if your are smart like West Coast and off load some quality players, so you can bring through a big batch of good youngsters.

What did we do last year?

[The Underdog]

I know what you are saying SS, but it doesnt really matter either way. The only way to build a better list to give the recruiting team as much cash as they need and let them pick 6 kids every year. No fast fixes unfortunately. Helps if your are smart like West Coast and off load some quality players, so you can bring through a big batch of good youngsters.

By offloading quality players you mean have the best player in the league leave to go back to Melbourne against your wishes and lose one of your greatest ever players due to drug addiction? Certainly they did ok draft wise out of Judd but they cut their losses with Cousins. True if they trade Kerr they will be in a strong position to get good picks but it will leave their midfield perilously thin for a few years yet. I've got no issue with drafting heaps of kids and turning the list over and they've proved astute recruiters, but what are the chances any will be as good as Judd or Kerr? I don't think we've been lax in bringing in kids but not as good in our choices or development of them as a WC or Collingwood. Still we've finished this year ahead of both and have a lot of inexperienced guys to come through.

I think we're likely to have seen the end of Wight, Skipper (or Street), and possibly Lynch.
I hope West goes on but things don't look good.

[Dogs 24/7]

Does salary cap management come into play? With West potentially retiring we might be able to spread some of that money around to the emerging talent or acquire a player with some senior footy experience.

[The Underdog]

Does salary cap management come into play? With West potentially retiring we might be able to spread some of that money around to the emerging talent or acquire a player with some senior footy experience.

He's on the veteran's list so there won't be that much to go around. Only half of his salary.

[Dogs 24/7]

He's on the veteran's list so there won't be that much to go around. Only half of his salary.

Fair point.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Does salary cap management come into play? With West potentially retiring we might be able to spread some of that money around to the emerging talent or acquire a player with some senior footy experience.

West is on the vet list so only half his salary is counted. I heard he was on $400K, so that would only free up $200K. You won't get much for that, I'd rather save the money and make sure we retain everyone we want to.



We have had our share of debutants over the last two years - Williams, Ward, Hill, Reid, Tiller, Lynch & Harbrow. Addison had only played 1 game by the end of 06 as well.

[westdog54]

I know what you are saying SS, but it doesnt really matter either way. The only way to build a better list to give the recruiting team as much cash as they need and let them pick 6 kids every year. No fast fixes unfortunately. Helps if your are smart like West Coast and off load some quality players, so you can bring through a big batch of good youngsters.

6 kids hey?

So which six are gone from the list this year and why?

[The Pie Man]

That squad has what you would hope is a reliable spine in 3 years

Everitt - Williams - Grant - Boumann

Boumann is probably a speculative pick in this sense, but he looks ok from what I've seen. I think this year's pre-season for Jarrod Grant & Tom Williams are crucial, and I hope Everitt has a confidence (and weight) building summer also.

If those 4, with a Tiller floating in, can be regualr senior players in 2010, and with Ayce Cordy then challenging for number 1 ruck (big call but the wraps on him are massive) we'll be looking alright.

I'm still dirty Tim Walsh didn't work out, he would've been really important right now should he have made it. That's whay Jarrod Grant HAS to make it.