First Preliminary Final Preview - Bulldogs vs Cats

[Mofra]

2008 Preliminary Final: The Western "People's Champions" Bulldogs vs Those Geelong "Father & Son Concession" Felines

MCG Friday Night

Last Time They Met - 19 July 2008 Skilled Stadium
Geelong 3.3 6.11 11.12 19.17 (131)
Western Bulldogs 3.3 7.5 9.9 10.10 (70)

GOALS
Geelong: Gamble 4, S. Johnson 3, Mooney 3, Bartel 2, Stokes 2, Ottens, Mackie, Taylor, Chapman, Lonergan
Western Bulldogs: Giansiracusa 3, Eagleton 2, Johnson, Lake, Welsh, Hahn, Ray

BEST
Geelong: Scarlett, Milburn, Bartel, Enright, Taylor, Mooney, Gamble, Ottens
Western Bulldogs: Gilbee, Cross, Giansiracusa, Griffen, Cooney

A highly anticipated game against the two top sides, Geelong appeared to be ramping up to the finals whilst the Bulldogs were looking shaky after the break two weeks earlier. The early part of the match lived up to hype with both sides level at half time, although Geelong were probably ahead in terms of general play. As is their way, Geelong continued to grind down the Bulldogs in the second half, with the Cats taking a 15 point lead into the final change. Unfortunately the Bulldogs didn't play during the last quarter allowing the Cats to stamp their authority on the game, running over the Doggies in the last term to record a 61 point victory and to instill a sense of fear into the rest of the competition.
_________________________________________________
Recent Form

Geelong (eek): 5 wins with an average margin of 69 points
WIN vs Saints by 58 points, Finals Wk 1
WIN vs West Coast by 99 points, Round 22 at home
WIN vs North by 33 points, Round 21 at home
WIN vs Swans by 39 points, Round 20 in Sydney
WIN vs Melbourne by 116 points, Round 19 at the MCG

Bulldogs:
WIN vs Sydney by 37 points, 1st Semi Final
LOSS vs Hawthorn by 51 points, 1st Qualifying final
LOSS vs Adelaide by 9 points, Round 22 in Adelaide
WIN vs Essendon by 46 points, Round 21 at home
LOSS vs Lions by 11 points, Round 20 at the Gabba

Last Game: Geelong
Geelong 3.7 7.10 16.15 17.17 (119)
St Kilda 1.1 3.2 5.5 8.13 (61)

GOALS
Geelong: Mooney 3, Ottens 3, Bartel 2, Lonergan 2, G.Ablett, Chapman, S.Johnson, Ling, Rooke, Stokes, Varcoe
St Kilda: Milne 2, X.Clarke, R.Clarke, Goddard, Montagna, Riewoldt, Schneider

BEST
Geelong: Bartel, Ottens, G.Ablett, Mooney, Corey, Milburn, Taylor, Ling
St Kilda: Goddard, S.Fisher, Jones, Hayes

Geelong once again sent a warning sign to the competition, scoring an ominous 119 points (number feel familiar?) against a Saints outfit that was simply too pressured to make an impact against Geelong, despite the Cats losing a runner in the first quarter. Bartel, Ablett, Corey & Milburn all had over 30 touches each, whilst the twin Towers in Lonergan & Ottens kicked 3 goals each.

Likely Changes for the match:

Geelong

The Cats have one forced change, with the unlucky Prismall injuring his ACL in the first quarter, whilst Chapman's dodgy hamstring again flared up during the match although he is better than an even money chance to play. Steve Johnson & Milburn also suffered injuries that are considered minor and will be available, whilst the obvious choice of player to replace Prismall (James Kelly) will be 50/50 with a strained quad.

Bulldogs

Unlikely to have any changes, with all players contributing to the Swans result, and Welsh failing to connect with his flying elbow. Ray played well for Williamstown on Saturday however making room in the side (and rumoured behind the scene contributing factors) mean it is unlikely that he will come back. Everitt & Addison will also come into consideration, especially since the Bulldogs don't have an answer for CHB due to Tom Williams' run of injuries.

[Mofra]

Top 5 Player watch:

Geelong:

Ablett - A favorite for the Brownlow, Lil' Gaz has been in stellar form this season; voted the MVP by his peers, racking up disposals at will and seemingly taunting his taggers with a reckless abandon by his ability to find the ball and dispose of the ball cleanly under pressure. Just as dangerous when he plays forward, where he started his already illustrious career. Boyd looms as a likely opponent who will want to capitalise on his 33 possession BOG against the Swans.

Bartel - Another who features highly in the Brownlow betting, the reigning Brownlow medalist is also very difficult to stop when he is on song. Extremely good overhead for his size, Bartel can do it all and is a genuine match winner in his own right. Will be a difficult match-up as he will be too quick for Cross and Boyd will most likely take Ablett, expect Eade to roll the dice and put someone who can hurt Geelong on the turnover to go to Bartel.

Harley - Why Harley & not Scarlett? Because Mr Triceps is leading the competition in marks from opposition kicks, and this ability was never more obvious than in the last game between these two sides. His willingness to play loose to help his teammates out is a habit that needs to be exposed by any opponent.

Lonergan - He's big, he's agile, and more importantly he is a very smart forward amongst the super-organised Geelong attack. He will no doubt be a pivotal player on Friday as the Bulldogs have no CHB who can match him for size & strength. As such, Geelong will look to attack through Tom at every available opportunity, as they had done previously when Tom Pantsed young Andrejs. With Lake likely to take Mooney (or Ottens if pushed forward) and Morris to take Steve "Leadfoot" Johnson, Tiller or Hargrave will be given a massive task of trying to stop him.

Ottens - Yes he is a top line ruckman, but with the development of Blake means there is every chance that the former Tiger will push forward to further expose the short Bulldogs backline. What will the Bulldogs do? Another roll of the dice could eventuate here, circa 2005 when Gilbee was regularly the task of opposing the opposition ruckman. Whoever goes to Ottens must be prepared to run off at every available opportunity and attack on the turnover.

Bulldogs:

Griffen - A real game-breaker, Griffen plays the high-risk style of play that is required to beat the top sides like Geelong. He will take on any opponent, with runs off both Judd & Bartel occurring this year, and with his large frame & lightening pace looms at the in-from midfielder the Bulldogs desperately need to fire to beat the Cats. Given his form (overtaking Cooney over the last two weeks), Griff might find a filthy ranga following him around all afternoon.

Minson - Think of a Cam Mooney after some man-scaping, Minson produced perhaps the best quarter of his career in the third term vs the Swans to prove an important cog in the Bulldogs machine. Strong over the ball, aggressive enough to make his teammates walk taller and the ability of bashing packs in the forward line, he will need to be at his tin-pin bowling best to bring the ball to ground when forward to give the mid-sized Bulldog forwards a chance.

Lake - Despite Halls 4 goals, two of these were from turnovers up field which Lake had no chance to stop. A willingness to leave his man and either help teammates or push forward will be vital to the Doggies' hopes of winning. Expect him to atone for a poor last game vs the Cats by agitating Mooney with some close checking.

Gilbee - It has been said by numerous commentators this finals series - the key to winning against top sides is to attack from defence. Nobody in the game can match Lindsay for footskill, and his defensive abilities often go unheralded as his highlights from most games include a showing of a "Lindsay Special" from 60m or an inside 50 pass to a leading forward. A defensive midfielder will take Gilbee.

Tiller - Expecting shrieks of horror from the Bulldogs faithful were enough for me to place Tiller in our top 5 importance category. He is going to have to replicate the pressure, desire & courage shown vs the Swans is we are going to be able to win. Steve will be likely to give up height, strength & experience to an opponent and have to make a contest purely on ticker alone. He is one guy who will never drop his head & leave nothing out on the paddock when he finishes a game, and must be switched on as Geelong will be likely to attack through his direct opponent. at 191cm and in the mid 80kgs range, he is a midfielder in some teams - for us he is a tall defender.

In the minds of the coaches

Eade knows Geelong are not invincible. Seeing the Collingwood game first hand, Geelong do have a weakness which Bomber has been turning into a strength - propensity to handball. The Cats are supremely confident in their handball ability, and will handball until a kicking opportunity under little pressure presents itself. Eade should put the boys through a Rambo-welcome-to-prison style introduction to the training week as no-mongrel will equal no Bulldogs this week.

Where Geelong have really re-invented themselves is with the mental toughness required to match them - teams have to be as hard at the Geelong players running to support their teammates as they do at the Geelong ball carrier, which is an extremely taxing ask. The Swans game in that respect is the perfect match lead up, as a similar attack on the footy and the players surrounding the contest will be vital.
Basically, the players need to play man on man all over the ground, regardless of where the ball is. If a Geelong player turns around, runs back, forward, up, down, he will need to feel the foreboding breath of a desperate Bulldogs opponent next to him for every second of the game.

Eade will also have to play a super-risky style of play, with fast turnovers, single kick switches and small defenders running off taller opponents. He will not have the luxury of tagging Ablett, Bartel and Corey - Cross to run with Corey, Boyd to Ablett and a Cooney or Griffen type to run off Bartel may be an option.

Bomber will be relaxed as one could expect with such a talent-laden line up. He will push Ottens forward at times knowing the Bulldogs have only 1 genuine tall backman, and will issue a simple instruction to his charges - get the ball into their F50 quickly. Geelong will back themselves to win more than half the stoppages, and will need the defensive unit to tackle hard, given the number of scrapping goals the Bulldogs forwards generate through the grunt work of Hahn and Welsh. He will try to have Harley & Milburn go to smaller opponents they can either out-muscle or spoil easily, so they can leave their opponents and set up run from the back half, especially if they can free up Wojo for some trademark dashes.

[Mofra]

Numerology

- The Bulldogs are even money in results vs Geelong over seasons 2006 & 2007 (1 win each in those seasons) , so will be hoping that trend continues in 2008.
- 54 years since 54, had to mention this somewhere. We have also taken 544 bounces this year inclusive of last week (almost double Geelong's 289).
- Geelong's score of 119 points in the Qualifying final was their winning margin vs Port in last year's GF. Spooky.
- Adam Cooney, the no 1 draft pick in 2003, has played 111 games
- 111 is also the combined number of individual cranial foliage representatives sported by Eagleton, Harley & Ablett.
- Both sides have 1 player change their name by deed poll (Max Rooke & Brian Lake)
- Wojinski has the same number of kicks & handballs (108), and the same number of goals & behinds (7)
- Selwood has the biggest discrepancy in FF vs FA (57 frees for with 17 frees against) in the competition


How Will The Game Pan out?

Was last week the return to form Doggies fans had dreamt of? The first half was tough & tight, with a super-high number of tackles & physical contest. The second half was a 10 goal to 4 win the Bulldogs, as much about a return to the style of play enjoyed by the Bulldogs in the first half of the 2008 season as it was about the Swans running out of legs (6 day break after a game in the wet). Given the Bulldogs have struggled after the break in the past two years, the constant need to plan, revitalise & prepare for an opponent may be helping them at this stage of their finals journey as opposed to having the week off.
Geelong will start as favourites, looking to forge their own dynasty given their dominance of the competition over the last two years. They are justifiably the competition leaders in many aspects of the game, have no weaknesses in personnel and are bigger then the Bulldogs on almost every section of the teamsheet.

The statistic I found most interesting was the bounces - 544 to the Bulldogs, vs 289 to Geelong. This demonstrates the difference in style of play; Geelong are disposal happy, whilst the Bulldogs are run happy. Put simply, if we allow Geelong to dispose of the football without enough pressure on both the ball carrier & recipient, we will lose. If Geelong don't run with us and they allow us to carry the ball for a major part of the day, we will win.

Geelong are truly an awesome outfit, it will be a major shock for them to lose to the Bulldogs by two straight kicks :)

[Scorlibo]

EXCELLENT write up Mofra, love the numerology :p.

[The Pie Man]

Numerology
- 111 is also the combined number of individual cranial foliage representatives sported by Eagleton, Harley & Ablett.


Quality :D

[Happy Days]

Top report Mofra...

Numerology was very crisp indeed:D

[Bumper Bulldogs]

Dogs by 11 points! ;)

[GVGjr]

Top 5 Player watch:

Geelong:

Ablett - A favorite for the Brownlow, Lil' Gaz has been in stellar form this season; voted the MVP by his peers, racking up disposals at will and seemingly taunting his taggers with a reckless abandon by his ability to find the ball and dispose of the ball cleanly under pressure. Just as dangerous when he plays forward, where he started his already illustrious career. Boyd looms as a likely opponent who will want to capitalise on his 33 possession BOG against the Swans.

Bartel - Another who features highly in the Brownlow betting, the reigning Brownlow medalist is also very difficult to stop when he is on song. Extremely good overhead for his size, Bartel can do it all and is a genuine match winner in his own right. Will be a difficult match-up as he will be too quick for Cross and Boyd will most likely take Ablett, expect Eade to roll the dice and put someone who can hurt Geelong on the turnover to go to Bartel.

Harley - Why Harley & not Scarlett? Because Mr Triceps is leading the competition in marks from opposition kicks, and this ability was never more obvious than in the last game between these two sides. His willingness to play loose to help his teammates out is a habit that needs to be exposed by any opponent.

Lonergan - He's big, he's agile, and more importantly he is a very smart forward amongst the super-organised Geelong attack. He will no doubt be a pivotal player on Friday as the Bulldogs have no CHB who can match him for size & strength. As such, Geelong will look to attack through Tom at every available opportunity, as they had done previously when Tom Pantsed young Andrejs. With Lake likely to take Mooney (or Ottens if pushed forward) and Morris to take Steve "Leadfoot" Johnson, Tiller or Hargrave will be given a massive task of trying to stop him.

Ottens - Yes he is a top line ruckman, but with the development of Blake means there is every chance that the former Tiger will push forward to further expose the short Bulldogs backline. What will the Bulldogs do? Another roll of the dice could eventuate here, circa 2005 when Gilbee was regularly the task of opposing the opposition ruckman. Whoever goes to Ottens must be prepared to run off at every available opportunity and attack on the turnover.



Once you add Steve Johnson to some of the forwards we will really need to do well in these match-ups much like we did against the Swans.

It does however, pose the question if we should bring in another tall defender?
Tiller did well against the aging Peter Everitt but could he do the same against Ottens or even Lonergan? I have my doubts.

[The Coon Dog]

How do we clear the ball from defence if Geelong maintain sustained pressure on Hargrave & Gilbee?

Great write up Mofra. http://www.woof.net.au/forum/images/icons/icon14.gif

[The Bulldogs Bite]

How do we clear the ball from defence if Geelong maintain sustained pressure on Hargrave & Gilbee?

Great write up Mofra. http://www.woof.net.au/forum/images/icons/icon14.gif

Perhaps it's worth the risk of bringing in Everitt, despite his ordinary year. He's capable of running the lines and has good foot skills, so it may take a bit of the pressure off Gilbee and Hargrave.

At the very least, it gives us that third tall defensive option. It also means we're able to swing one of Tiller/Everitt forward at times.

I suppose the question is who would be the unlucky player to be dropped?

Very good write up Mofra, top stuff.

[BDThrunthru]

A Dog is at its most dangerous when it has its back to the wall! Being the underdogs in this game means if we play 100 minutes of "Nothing to lose" footy, we will prevail. After all, we have been only one of a few teams that have beaten them in the last 2 seasons, so it proves we can beat them. Also remember, Collingwood nearly barrelled them in last years preliminary final & lets face it, they aren't the team we are! :)

Anyway, Keep the Faith fellow Doggies Fans and hope our Boys dine out on some Pussy next Weekend on the way to the GF!!!!!!!!!!:D

[bornadog]

Great review Mofra. All we can hope for is we come out and be competitive. The Hawks game was our worst game this year as we never ever looked like being in it. Every other game this year we had our chances and threatened at some stage. We need players to give their all and be on song for the whole match.

[Mofra]

I am far more confident of this game than I was for the Hawthorn game. Two main reasons:

- Our form was terribly leading into the Hawks game. Our performance vs the Swans was one of the best games we'd played for the year, a throwback to the start of the season when we were flying. Our last gaem vs Geelogn was in the middle of a serious form slump yet we were still competitive for 3 quarters.

- Lonergan & Mooney are no Roughy & Buddy. Geelong's trump card is it's midfield, and if we are ever going to combat a team's strength it's in the midfield where hardness at the football can combat the skill & power of a champion midfield unit (Sydney's blue collar outfit beating the West Coast trio of Judd, Cousins & Kerr in 2005 is a prime example)

We are theoretically a tall defender down - but then again, we can't combat Geelong's gameplan on their terms. We need to make them combat our tactics, and leave them feeling they are one small defensive forward down.

Roll the dice, take our chances, and we can do it.

[bornadog]

I am far more confident of this game than I was for the Hawthorn game. Two main reasons:

- Our form was terribly leading into the Hawks game. Our performance vs the Swans was one of the best games we'd played for the year, a throwback to the start of the season when we were flying. Our last gaem vs Geelogn was in the middle of a serious form slump yet we were still competitive for 3 quarters.

- Lonergan & Mooney are no Roughy & Buddy. Geelong's trump card is it's midfield, and if we are ever going to combat a team's strength it's in the midfield where hardness at the football can combat the skill & power of a champion midfield unit (Sydney's blue collar outfit beating the West Coast trio of Judd, Cousins & Kerr in 2005 is a prime example)

We are theoretically a tall defender down - but then again, we can't combat Geelong's gameplan on their terms. We need to make them combat our tactics, and leave them feeling they are one small defensive forward down.

Roll the dice, take our chances, and we can do it.

The only other excuse I can point at for the Hawthorn match was the tough match in the wet against Adelaide the week before. maybe that game took a lot out of us, even though we played pretty well and wasted our opportunities

[Go_Dogs]

I am far more confident of this game than I was for the Hawthorn game. Two main reasons:

- Our form was terribly leading into the Hawks game. Our performance vs the Swans was one of the best games we'd played for the year, a throwback to the start of the season when we were flying. Our last gaem vs Geelogn was in the middle of a serious form slump yet we were still competitive for 3 quarters.

- Lonergan & Mooney are no Roughy & Buddy. Geelong's trump card is it's midfield, and if we are ever going to combat a team's strength it's in the midfield where hardness at the football can combat the skill & power of a champion midfield unit (Sydney's blue collar outfit beating the West Coast trio of Judd, Cousins & Kerr in 2005 is a prime example)

We are theoretically a tall defender down - but then again, we can't combat Geelong's gameplan on their terms. We need to make them combat our tactics, and leave them feeling they are one small defensive forward down.

Roll the dice, take our chances, and we can do it.

All excellent points. Hopefully the team has been focusing on positives like this, and won't be over-awed by the willingness and work-rate of the Geelong side.


As others have commented, we match up fairly well on Geelong on paper, and a lot of the players in the side have been involved in wins against a lot of the same Geelong players. The belief would be there.

We just need to do what we did against the Swans, work hard, sacrifice for each other and give it everything. No reason why we can't win.

[bornadog]

THE STATS


http://i202.photobucket.com/albums/aa198/mmsalih/stat1.jpg

http://i202.photobucket.com/albums/aa198/mmsalih/stat2.jpg

http://i202.photobucket.com/albums/aa198/mmsalih/stat3.jpg

[westdog54]

THE STATS


http://i202.photobucket.com/albums/aa198/mmsalih/stat1.jpg


I found this rather curious.

With the exception of the tackle count, essentially we are right up there with Geelong on paper, and in essence we are only a couple of goals behind them.

We kick the thing more than they do and take more marks. Relentless pressure on their 'keep handballing till someone can break free' gameplan will go a long way to bringing them unstuck.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Does anyone think Everitt is a chance to come into the side?

Purely for the fact of Plan B, when they throw Mooney, Lonergan AND Ottens up forward. Certainly stretches us a fair bit, if we went into the match with the same lineup, who would oppose them when all three are playing forward for Geelong?

Ottens - Lake?
Mooney - Morris?
Lonergan - Hargrave/Tiller?

Could put us in a spot of bother.

[The Pie Man]

Does anyone think Everitt is a chance to come into the side?

Purely for the fact of Plan B, when they throw Mooney, Lonergan AND Ottens up forward. Certainly stretches us a fair bit, if we went into the match with the same lineup, who would oppose them when all three are playing forward for Geelong?

Ottens - Lake?
Mooney - Morris?
Lonergan - Hargrave/Tiller?

Could put us in a spot of bother.

I doubt there will be any changes but I wouldn't be unhappy at all to see Everitt in the side on Friday. He looked very impressive on Saturday, and his reach could be very important.

[Mantis]

Does anyone think Everitt is a chance to come into the side?

Purely for the fact of Plan B, when they throw Mooney, Lonergan AND Ottens up forward. Certainly stretches us a fair bit, if we went into the match with the same lineup, who would oppose them when all three are playing forward for Geelong?

Ottens - Lake?
Mooney - Morris?
Lonergan - Hargrave/Tiller?

Could put us in a spot of bother.

I think we are already in a spot of bother.

We have to go with what we have at present and hope that our midfield can do it's job.

[Bumper Bulldogs]

Does anyone think Everitt is a chance to come into the side?

Ottens - Lake?
Mooney - Morris?
Lonergan - Hargrave/Tiller?

Could put us in a spot of bother.

I would think that Morris would love to play on Johnson again and redeem himself for the last time we played. I think it would be worthwhile considering Everitt/Wight as we will need the tall down back.

Maybe drop Welsh or send him back and have the forward line full of whippets.:)

[bornadog]

I would think that Morris would love to play on Johnson again and redeem himself for the last time we played. I think it would be worthwhile considering Everitt/Wight as we will need the tall down back.

Maybe drop Welsh or send him back and have the forward line full of whippets.:)

Welsh has been very poor for a few weeks and is lucky to be playing in my opinion.

[Raw Toast]

Welsh has been very poor for a few weeks and is lucky to be playing in my opinion.

I thought he had a decent game on Friday night, and his long goal late in the second quarter was super-important imo.

He also helps make our forward line that much more dangerous because he's always a chance of popping up and kicking five goals, can take a good contested grab, has shown good defensive pressure throughout the year, can nab an intercept or two, and has probably kicked more crumbing goals than anyone else in our side.

So someone decent has to be put on him, and he is smart enough to be able to play as a decoy and take one of their good defenders away from the play.

He's up and down but we knew that before we got him, and frustrating as he can be, I reckon he's been an excellent pick-up for us.

[dog town]

I thought he had a decent game on Friday night, and his long goal late in the second quarter was super-important imo.

He also helps make our forward line that much more dangerous because he's always a chance of popping up and kicking five goals, can take a good contested grab, has shown good defensive pressure throughout the year, can nab an intercept or two, and has probably kicked more crumbing goals than anyone else in our side.

So someone decent has to be put on him, and he is smart enough to be able to play as a decoy and take one of their good defenders away from the play.

He's up and down but we knew that before we got him, and frustrating as he can be, I reckon he's been an excellent pick-up for us. Thats why you leave him in the side. He is a bit like Hudson or Kolyniuk in that they could be quite for a few weeks but then they will bob up with a match winning effort. He was exactly the same at Adelaide.

[Sedat]

Thats why you leave him in the side. He is a bit like Hudson or Kolyniuk in that they could be quite for a few weeks but then they will bob up with a match winning effort. He was exactly the same at Adelaide.
He also kicked a couple in the 1999 grand final for North as well. He's a little like Richard Osborne in that regard - very dangerous player who requires attention from the opposition but when he goes missing, you need to call in the SES.

[bornadog]

I thought he had a decent game on Friday night, and his long goal late in the second quarter was super-important imo.

He also helps make our forward line that much more dangerous because he's always a chance of popping up and kicking five goals, can take a good contested grab, has shown good defensive pressure throughout the year, can nab an intercept or two, and has probably kicked more crumbing goals than anyone else in our side.

So someone decent has to be put on him, and he is smart enough to be able to play as a decoy and take one of their good defenders away from the play.

He's up and down but we knew that before we got him, and frustrating as he can be, I reckon he's been an excellent pick-up for us.

We need him to do all that tomorrow night.

[Raw Toast]

We need him to do all that tomorrow night.

Indeed, though we'll need virtually everyone at the top of their game if the Cats turn up to play.