Relationship between birthdays and sporting success

[mjp]

63.8% of AFL listed players - the number is slightly higher in the NFL - are born between January and June.

The theory?

- Earlier birthday = (on average) earlier physical maturation.
- Earlier maturation = higher liklihood of selection in elite programs.
- Elite programs = more/better coaching.
- Better coaching = improved skill development
etc.

The one fly in the ointment is that recent testing (should be released soon) will show that sporting decision making skills are higher in people with birthdays between July-December.

The theory is almost the reverse to the above - people who mature later figure out quickly that if they dont make disposal decisions quickly - and effectively - they get flattened. There is a skill development tie in here as well that is anecdotal but difficult to test for in a lab - players with later birthdays generally kick/handball better than those with early birthdays...

Anyway. I found it all particularly interesting!

[ledge]

Let me say someone has a lot of time on there hands.
All figures are going to support some way or another because you never get exactly 50% but might i say 63% is pretty close.
Isnt sporting statistics just getting so ridiculous now.
Next thing recruiters will be recruiting on time of day you were concieved!
Not picking on you MJP just the idea of someone even doing some of this stuff.

[Sockeye Salmon]

I think it's less sophisticated than that. The older and bigger kids have an advantage in the lower grades (where the age difference is more pronounced) and the younger kids get discouraged and give the game away.

[Scorlibo]

Makes a lot of sense. I am in the latter category and fit into the later maturing category also. I was never the biggest, tallest, strongest or fastest on my team, but I was always the best kick and made smart/quick decisions (even if I do say so myself;)). Probably one of the reasons why I favour natural footballers over athletes. Of course all this has no influence on recruiters mind-sets but it is nonetheless very interesting! Thanks mjp :)

[mjp]

Let me say someone has a lot of time on there hands.
All figures are going to support some way or another because you never get exactly 50% but might i say 63% is pretty close.
Isnt sporting statistics just getting so ridiculous now.
Next thing recruiters will be recruiting on time of day you were concieved!
Not picking on you MJP just the idea of someone even doing some of this stuff.

1/.63% is NOWHERE near 50%
2/.Do you really think I did this myself?

Study commissioned by the AFL on talented player pathways...

[LostDoggy]

Hmm interesting. Im boarderline.

Born 18 July.

Might explain why some of my kicks i look back and think, 'goddamn' and other times i think 'shitmen'.

[mjp]

Borgy - inconsistency in kicking like that is usually related to ball drop, not birthday!

[ledge]

1/.63% is NOWHERE near 50%
2/.Do you really think I did this myself?

Study commissioned by the AFL on talented player pathways...

MJP I know you didnt do it, sorry if i came across wrong, but sometimes you have to laugh on some of the ideas people come up with to look at statistics.
63% i thought was pretty close considering surveys arent usually mentioned unless there is a major difference as in 80-90%.
So the AFL actually pays someone to look at birthday surveys, rather they paid that money to the clubs.