The AFL escalator in 2009

[Dry Rot]

Which teams look like hopping up the ladder in 2009? Port, Tigers and Blues fans seem hopeful but could a bolter come from the west?

IIRC, a bottom 4 or bottom 8 usually bolts into the top 4.

And on the down escalator, many usually claim it will be the Swans and Crows every season and are wrong, but has their time finally come to dip?

[The Coon Dog]

My view is:

Adelaide - slight decline
Brisbane - slight improvement
Carlton - will improve
Collingwood - about the same
Essendon - about the same
Fremantle - slight improvement
Geelong - about the same
Hawthorn - about the same
Melbourne - about the same
North Melbourne - slight decline
Port Adelaide - about the same
Richmond - slight improvement
St. Kilda - about the same
Sydney - decline
West Coast - slight improvement
Western Buldogs - slight improvement

I don't see anyone moving up rapidly, perhaps Carlton & Brisbane to improve the most.

Funny how DR mentioned most people pick Adelaide & Sydney to fall each year. They're the two I think will fall in 2009.

[GVGjr]

Biggest improvers:
Richmond, West Coast and Carlton
Biggest sliders:
StKilda, Collingwood and Sydney

[Mofra]

Port as the bolters, I see (wait for it) Geelong as an injury or two away from sliding outside the top four. They are the Essendon of 2000, 7 years too late.

Bulldogs & Hawks as the teams to beat in 09

[ledge]

Well theirs only one way to go if you finish on top and considering we will win the flag the Hawks will slide down at least one rung!

[lemmon]

Im tipping Brisbane to have a bolt at top 6 and perhaps top 4, they have a very good midfield with the likes of Black Power and Adcock, their rucks have the ability to be the best in the comp IMO with Charman and Luenberger (who will be a star) their forward line has arguarbly the best big man combo in the league with Bradshaw and Brown. Their back line is although not exciting, steady with Merrit and Drummond. They have some fantastic young kids coming through guys like Henderson, Clark, Dalziell and now young Rich. They just need to find another goal kicker or two and either Henderson or Clark to hold down CHB and they have a very dangerous side

[Bumper Bulldogs]

I think the Richmond and carlton are the ones to move into the 8 this year with Sydney & North falling out.

not a good club move with McIntosh trade week.

[LostDoggy]

Im tipping Brisbane to have a bolt at top 6 and perhaps top 4, they have a very good midfield with the likes of Black Power and Adcock, their rucks have the ability to be the best in the comp IMO with Charman and Luenberger (who will be a star) their forward line has arguarbly the best big man combo in the league with Bradshaw and Brown. Their back line is although not exciting, steady with Merrit and Drummond. They have some fantastic young kids coming through guys like Henderson, Clark, Dalziell and now young Rich. They just need to find another goal kicker or two and either Henderson or Clark to hold down CHB and they have a very dangerous side

Brisbane were my tip for the 'bolter' last season but they got found out due to their one dimensional forwardline. I cant see them improving unless they find another avenue to goal otherthan Brown and Bradshaw. If they werent so short on small forwards its safe to say Hooper would have been shown the door long ago.

[Bumper Bulldogs]

Brisbane were my tip for the 'bolter' last season but they got found out due to their one dimensional forwardline. I cant see them improving unless they find another avenue to goal otherthan Brown and Bradshaw. If they werent so short on small forwards its safe to say Hooper would have been shown the door long ago.

Agree too much left to Brown & Bradshaw. one out they really struggle.

[lemmon]

Brisbane were my tip for the 'bolter' last season but they got found out due to their one dimensional forwardline. I cant see them improving unless they find another avenue to goal otherthan Brown and Bradshaw. If they werent so short on small forwards its safe to say Hooper would have been shown the door long ago.

Their probably regretting letting Corrie go a little bit, he showed a little bit playing as a small forward and Hooper is probably doing Vossy and the club more harm then good.

[LostDoggy]

Agree too much left to Brown & Bradshaw. one out they really struggle.

And thats what makes us such a good side, not relying on 2 big forwards :)

I think Brisbane out of the 8, Carlton in, Richmond in, Maybe Kangaroos dropping out. Dont think any more big jumps or falls really

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Brisbane are ordinary IMO.

Brown, Bradshaw, Power, Black are A grade players but they really falla way after that. Johnstone is a good player but he's hardly reliable, as he proved last season. Their forward line is far too predictable, Brown/Bradshaw often kicked bags in the same game and they still lost. Their midfield needs to be bolstered and in defence they're lacking too. They are overrated because of their top tier.

With Voss at the helm too, I predict a finisha round 9th-12th.

For mine, Carlton, Richmond and Port Adelaide to improve and potentially make finals.

St. Kilda and Sydney to miss out. Perhaps the Kangaroos too.

[LostDoggy]

If Geelong slide then you may aswell hand the Hawks the cup now. WE couldnt get within a bulls roar of them with our midget forward line. And 09 is unfortunately going to be one yr to early for the Grants,Boumanns and Cordys etc.

[soupman]

Well I rank the sides in the following clusters, with room to move one cluster either way:

Hawthorn, Geelong

Western Bulldogs

Brisbane, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Carlton, St. Kilda

Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Richmond, West Coast

Essendon, Fremantle

Melbourne

Which translated to a ladder means:

1. Hawthorn
2. Geelong
3. Western Bulldogs
4. Brisbane

5. Collingwood
6. Carlton
7. North Melbourne
8. St.Kilda

9. Port Adelaide
10. Adelaide
11. Sydney
12. Richmond

13. West Coast
14. Fremantle
15. Essendon
16. Melbourne

Looking at that, despite compiling it I don't agree with it simply because I think all the sides from 11th to 15th should be higher. I think it'll be a very even season for the sides placed 6th-15th, with the loser being decided by injury.

So, from that the bolters are Brisbane and Carlton, and the sliders St.Kilda, Sydney and even Richmond (considering they are meant to improve).

[azabob]

Adelaide into the top 4 and I think Richmond will make the 8.
Here's hoping the bulldogs stay in the top 2 or 3. Still a little bit of me is scared that we may slip back down like past seasons. But overall Im fairly confident we will continue on our way.

[Go_Dogs]

Port and Brisbane are my big movers up.

West Coast and Adelaide could also surprise.

[ledge]

Hawks-Its a different ball game when the hunter becomes the hunted.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

I think Port could do like we did in 08, and show the previous poor season was just a temporary bad dream.
I think on the other side Brisbane will struggle. I think Voss is going to find the coaching caper very difficult, ala Timmy Watson.

[LostDoggy]

I can't really see Brisbane finishing top four - new coach, several players changed around - if appointing Voss turns out to be an inspired choice it won't happen this year.
11th.

I think Richmond proved they could take on the big guns last year, they beat Hawthorn and managed to lose to us and bring about a draw - throw Cousins into the mix and they will be a challenge. Top 6

The Blues, with Judd doing a full pre season and back to his best, will see them charge up the ladder. Top 6

I don't underestimate West Coast either, a lot of injuires stuffed up their season but their history has shown they never stay down two years in a row - 8th

I just don't have any faith in the Saints, they fell into fourth spot through smashing an injury clogged Essendon who lined up a team of green kids. They were just lucky to finish fourth at all - 12

Adelaide had several key players missing, but still don't really have a forward structure - but they just seem to have that winning never throw in the towel culture - 7

Hawthorn - as someone else mentioned, will be the hunted this year not the hunter - their undisciplined play will cause them some pain with suspensions and potential injuries - still will be top 4 though.

Geelong their luck is starting to dry up - I expect a few injuries this year considering the last two years they have been lucky on this front. Top 6.

Port Adelaide - another team that suffered from a lot of injuries, but for the smarting runner ups from 2007 not to be able to beat the premiers round 1 at home - they are just not good enough. 8- 10 for me.

Melbourne - Should have started rebuilding as soon as Coach Bailley arrived - 16.

North Melbourne A few good players will be coming back from injury this year - still as we know from Darcy that does mean they will have an immediate impact - 8- 12.

Sydney NO way they will make the 8 and they didn't make much of an impact last year anyway. 10- 14.

Fremantle some improvement - but not enough to make the 8. 10 - 14

Essendon Will be interesting to watch the improvement this year - still not top 8 though - 10 - 14.

Collingwood Top 6 again, thanks to an enviable draw and a strong team without any real stars. They would have beaten us last year, but for the injuries to players.

[LostDoggy]

Everyone is talking up Carlton and Richmond. Don't rate either at all. Dig past the obvious suspects and there are some serious deficiencies on both lists -- even the obvious suspects aren't getting any younger: Richo is the oldest player in the competition and there is no guarantee either he or Cousins will even get through the season. Same with Judd -- hasn't had an injury free season in three years, with the increased expectation the younger guys will choke. There are a couple of young gems on both lists, but positions 10 - 22 on each starting 22 are as bad as they come.

Richmond and Carlton to fight out 8th spot AT BEST.

[LostDoggy]

Geelong will stay in the top 2. They will be hurting and there is so much cream in the cake they're not going anywhere. Just need more from their bottom 6.

Hawthorn will have a rude shock unless Lance has another year out -- he will find it nearly impossible to back up after last year; will obviously still have some incredible days, but will not blitz the competition again -- coaches will have spent all summer designing anti-Buddy plans and he is no Wayne Carey in the mental strength department.

Bolter -- Freo. There is some serious (but soft) talent on this list and I just think these guys are one mental click away from being the real deal. If they had won every game they had led at 3 quarter time last year they would have finished top 2, easy. I'm tipping they are one tight win away from it all falling in place.. but they could just as easily finish wooden spooners (that's just the uber-even nature of the competition).

Essendon, I think, will surprise a few as well -- they finished the season okay and with an extra pre-season will have real weapons coming in. Injuries will be the factor here, but if they stay on the park it's a pretty okay list. The key with both Freo and the Bombers is that no one is paying them any attention.

[lemmon]

Everyone is talking up Carlton and Richmond. Don't rate either at all. Dig past the obvious suspects and there are some serious deficiencies on both lists -- even the obvious suspects aren't getting any younger: Richo is the oldest player in the competition and there is no guarantee either he or Cousins will even get through the season. Same with Judd -- hasn't had an injury free season in three years, with the increased expectation the younger guys will choke. There are a couple of young gems on both lists, but positions 10 - 22 on each starting 22 are as bad as they come.

Richmond and Carlton to fight out 8th spot AT BEST.

Agree 100% on Richmond, massively overated imo. Their midfield is young and raw although talented. No one in their backline is able to take on the big forwards, Thursfield is just too thin IMO and no Polaks gonna really hurt. Their runners from defence lack the one thing most vital in this position kicking accuracy. Their forward line is average Richo is a star but is ageing, Brown isnt the same player after breaking his leg, I dont really rate Riewoldt and young Morton is enigmatic.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Everyone is talking up Carlton and Richmond. Don't rate either at all. Dig past the obvious suspects and there are some serious deficiencies on both lists -- even the obvious suspects aren't getting any younger: Richo is the oldest player in the competition and there is no guarantee either he or Cousins will even get through the season. Same with Judd -- hasn't had an injury free season in three years, with the increased expectation the younger guys will choke. There are a couple of young gems on both lists, but positions 10 - 22 on each starting 22 are as bad as they come.

Richmond and Carlton to fight out 8th spot AT BEST.

I agree in essence, but then you suggest Fremantle could be the real deal? Besides Melbourne, Fremantle probably have the worst list in the competition. Pavlich and Sandilands are quality players, and you could probably add a couple of others, but the rest are either rubbish or young kids (Eg. Palmer, Ibbotson & Mayne). They are a LONG way off Finals IMO. Desperately need to develop young talent, and whilst that has started, it's going to take a couple of years. Still a case of rove to Sandilands, smother Pavlich and you're 90% home.

[azabob]

Agree 100% on Richmond, massively overated imo. Their midfield is young and raw although talented. No one in their backline is able to take on the big forwards, Thursfield is just too thin IMO and no Polaks gonna really hurt. Their runners from defence lack the one thing most vital in this position kicking accuracy. Their forward line is average Richo is a star but is ageing, Brown isnt the same player after breaking his leg, I dont really rate Riewoldt and young Morton is enigmatic.

have to disagree. Thursfield is more than capable, McGuane is becoming a very good tall and so is Moore. I think their back half is more than capable, also their tall forwards are coming on nicely in Hughes and Reiwoldt. ANd their midfield is young and raw but has talent to burn and we all know midfielders come on a lot quicker than talls. I think they have a well balanced list.

[ledge]

I can't really see Brisbane finishing top four - new coach, several players changed around - if appointing Voss turns out to be an inspired choice it won't happen this year.
11th.

I think Richmond proved they could take on the big guns last year, they beat Hawthorn and managed to lose to us and bring about a draw - throw Cousins into the mix and they will be a challenge. Top 6

The Blues, with Judd doing a full pre season and back to his best, will see them charge up the ladder. Top 6

I don't underestimate West Coast either, a lot of injuires stuffed up their season but their history has shown they never stay down two years in a row - 8th

I just don't have any faith in the Saints, they fell into fourth spot through smashing an injury clogged Essendon who lined up a team of green kids. They were just lucky to finish fourth at all - 12

Adelaide had several key players missing, but still don't really have a forward structure - but they just seem to have that winning never throw in the towel culture - 7

Hawthorn - as someone else mentioned, will be the hunted this year not the hunter - their undisciplined play will cause them some pain with suspensions and potential injuries - still will be top 4 though.

Geelong their luck is starting to dry up - I expect a few injuries this year considering the last two years they have been lucky on this front. Top 6.

Port Adelaide - another team that suffered from a lot of injuries, but for the smarting runner ups from 2007 not to be able to beat the premiers round 1 at home - they are just not good enough. 8- 10 for me.

Melbourne - Should have started rebuilding as soon as Coach Bailley arrived - 16.

North Melbourne A few good players will be coming back from injury this year - still as we know from Darcy that does mean they will have an immediate impact - 8- 12.

Sydney NO way they will make the 8 and they didn't make much of an impact last year anyway. 10- 14.

Fremantle some improvement - but not enough to make the 8. 10 - 14

Essendon Will be interesting to watch the improvement this year - still not top 8 though - 10 - 14.

Collingwood Top 6 again, thanks to an enviable draw and a strong team without any real stars. They would have beaten us last year, but for the injuries to players.

Your missing one important team!

[LostDoggy]

Your missing one important team!

Yes, and I haven't put anyone down as top two either;)

[Sockeye Salmon]

have to disagree. Thursfield is more than capable, McGuane is becoming a very good tall and so is Moore. I think their back half is more than capable, also their tall forwards are coming on nicely in Hughes and Reiwoldt. ANd their midfield is young and raw but has talent to burn and we all know midfielders come on a lot quicker than talls. I think they have a well balanced list.

Thursfield, McGuane and Moore could all end up being quite decent third talls but none of them have the size to take the big blokes.

Riewoldt might be something one day but he's a far way off still (I really question his pace) and Hughes has done nothing so far to suggest he is any more than a VFL player. Their three leading goalkickers last year were Richo, Brown and Bowden with an average age of 32!

Deledio, Cousins, Cotchin and Foley is the basis of a midfield but they're still a fair way short of being a consistantly good side.

[azabob]

Thursfield, McGuane and Moore could all end up being quite decent third talls but none of them have the size to take the big blokes.

Riewoldt might be something one day but he's a far way off still (I really question his pace) and Hughes has done nothing so far to suggest he is any more than a VFL player. Their three leading goalkickers last year were Richo, Brown and Bowden with an average age of 32!

Deledio, Cousins, Cotchin and Foley is the basis of a midfield but they're still a fair way short of being a consistantly good side.

Yep agree they are a bit off being a consitant side but to make the eight you dont need to be consistant. I think Thursfield will be big enough in time to take the bigger guys.
We should also remember that not so long ago our best players were West, Johnson, Darcy, Smith, Grant.

SS do you think Richmond will make the 8?

[Sockeye Salmon]

Yep agree they are a bit off being a consitant side but to make the eight you dont need to be consistant. I think Thursfield will be big enough in time to take the bigger guys.
We should also remember that not so long ago our best players were West, Johnson, Darcy, Smith, Grant.

SS do you think Richmond will make the 8?

They might fall into 7th or 8th if they're lucky.

I think Carlton and West Coast will both finish above Richmond and will make the 8.

[KT31]

Bulldogs will play in the GF Hawks.
Richmond are overated and will finish ninth.
Carlton will improve.
West Coast wont improve they will just stop tanking.
Brisbane will be high top eight.
Cats could go either way.
Demons 16th
Saints to finish around 8th.
Pies in eight (only because the AFL pampers them)

[ledge]

Bulldogs will play in the GF Hawks.
Richmond are overated and will finish ninth.
Carlton will improve.
West Coast wont improve they will just stop tanking.
Brisbane will be high top eight.
Cats could go either way.
Demons 16th
Saints to finish around 8th.
Pies in eight (only because the AFL pampers them)

The cats can only go one way, they finished top.
Considering you have chosen us and Hawks to finish in GF that means they are going downwards.:D

[ledge]

Im backing you cant get money on Richmond finishing 9th.

[Dry Rot]

IIRC a bottom 4 or bottom 8 team has made top 4 for many years now - which team will that be in 2009?

My punt is Port.

[LostDoggy]

I agree in essence, but then you suggest Fremantle could be the real deal? Besides Melbourne, Fremantle probably have the worst list in the competition. Pavlich and Sandilands are quality players, and you could probably add a couple of others, but the rest are either rubbish or young kids (Eg. Palmer, Ibbotson & Mayne). They are a LONG way off Finals IMO. Desperately need to develop young talent, and whilst that has started, it's going to take a couple of years. Still a case of rove to Sandilands, smother Pavlich and you're 90% home.

I agree with everything you've said. With the thread's premise though, I looked down there and there was Melbourne, not going anywhere, West Coast, don't think they'll be going anywhere for another year or so (probably just finish outside the 8), Essendon and Freo.

Of the four I think Freo have the most weapons -- there are some older guys in there who have been playing below their best for some years now, plus younger guys like Palmer and Ibbotson who are quite good. Like I said in my original post, they could very easily finish wooden spooners, but if something clicks (and I do think that the potential is there), they have the weapons (Pav and Sands as you said), experience, and I think enough talent on the list to do some damage. With them a lot of it is really in the head, which tells me that if it clicks and their mental state goes the other way (ie. they get a couple of wins), the momentum may make them nigh unbeatable for a while. They only lost to Geelong by a point last year and lost something like 9 games (4 or 5 of those by less than a goal) that they led at 3 quarter time. That's not a sign of an untalented side. Mentally fragile, physically unfit, maybe, but they can put up a score, and with some luck...