My Gut Feel - We will beat the Saints

[bornadog]

Don't know why I have started this thread but I am more confident this week than I was the last two weeks. I don't normally feel this way, but I think we can beat the Saints. I know they have been playing very very well, but no one seems to have put the pressure on them.

We beat them twice last year and they basically have the same team and that will be a confidence booster for us. We can match up with them, we just need our midfield to fire up and get the ball in quickly to the forwards. Cooney back in will make a huge difference, especially to Griffen.

[AndrewP6]

Like your optimism...I'm off to try and buy some of it...

[LostDoggy]

Dale Morris to do what he does on Riewoltd..

Tommy Gun to go against Kozzy if his hammy is all better..

Picken can tag Dal Santo?

I think we can contain their forward line, as long as we have first use and our forward line functions much better than the weekend we will take them down.

[Mantis]

Don't know why I have started this thread but I am more confident this week than I was the last two weeks. I don't normally feel this way, but I think we can beat the Saints. I know they have been playing very very well, but no one seems to have put the pressure on them.

We beat them twice last year and they basically have the same team and that will be a confidence booster for us. We can match up with them, we just need our midfield to fire up and get the ball in quickly to the forwards. Cooney back in will make a huge difference, especially to Griffen.

We won the clearances against Carlton almost 2 to 1.

We had as many inside 50's as Carlton, but the ball goes out quicker than it goes in.

Our skills were terrible under minimal pressure, how will they go against the best pressure side in the comp at present?

St.Kilda will be coming off a 9 day break.

A lot is going to have to change in the space of a week for us to pull this one out.

[mjp]

I'm not sure how we can stop the St Kilda backs from turning our half-forward line into a trampoline whilst also trying to kick goals.

Our main tactic right now seems to be to try and lead back into artificial space between half-forward and full forward rather than at the kicker...it makes delivery in there very difficult, and will play right into the hands of guys like Fisher.

Given the form of Jones recently, I am not sure we can count on some ground breaking running from Griffen splitting the game open...I just cannot see anything other than a 6-8 goal victory by the Saints.

Just as well we play the games huh?

[firstdogonthemoon]

We are going to get the poop kicked out of us. I would love to be wrong, and I hate the Sts, but no...

[bornadog]

I hear what you are saying and I should feel a loss coming on, but I think we can pull this off.

[Sedat]

Unfortunately I agree with the pessimists. Carlton's defensive intensity was OK on Sunday but nothing out of the box, yet our skills repeatedly turned to water. St Kilda's collective defensive intensity in the first 5 weeks of 2009 has not been matched in the history of the game, so we will have far less time to dwell on the ball and spot up targets further upfield - I'm unconvinced that our current group have the skills to pierce the well-drilled St Kilda zone and defensive structures across the ground to create enough opportunities to kick a winning score against them.

From a broader perspective, I'm not yet convinced we can fully handle the rolling midfield zone - North used it in large doses and we just got over the line. Richmond and Freo aren't skilled enough to pull it off and both teams gifted us turnover goals as a result, and West Coast clearly won the midfield tactical battle against us. None of these teams are at St Kilda's level on present form.

[Mofra]

I'm not sure how we can stop the St Kilda backs from turning our half-forward line into a trampoline whilst also trying to kick goals.

Hopefully we don't use the tactic we tried against Carlton - not actually having one (apologies to Murphy & Grants lead-up efforts late in the game)

[LostDoggy]

Saints have played very well in the first 5 rounds but need to consider who they've played..

Sydney @ Home (Only 2-3 goal win)
Adelaide @ AAMI
West Coast @ Home
Fremantle @ Home
Port Adelaide @ AAMI

3 of those teams are in the bottom 8, Freo dead bottom.

In Comparison we belted freo in SUBI by 10 goals+
Lost to West Coast by 5 goals again in SUBI..

They haven't had a hardest run ever (and yes you gotta give them credit for flogging Port over there)

Next 2 weeks they play Us & Collingwood, this will really show whether they are Contenders of Pretenders. Im looking forward to a hard fought slobber knocker, a great game for us to bounce back and hopefully show everyone the saints aren't invincible.

[Sedat]

Comparing St Kilda from 2008 to 2009 is a little like comparing Geelong from 2006 to 2007. Same players, completely different mindset.

St Kilda's biggest weakness in previous seasons, the poor output from it's bottom 6-7 players, is now its greatest strength. They are getting very valuable contributions from the likes of Geary, Gwilt, McQualter, etc.. and have significantly evened out the collective contributions across the 22 players.

[azabob]

Saints have played very well in the first 5 rounds but need to consider who they've played..

Sydney @ Home (Only 2-3 goal win)
Adelaide @ AAMI
West Coast @ Home
Fremantle @ Home
Port Adelaide @ AAMI

3 of those teams are in the bottom 8, Freo dead bottom.

In Comparison we belted freo in SUBI by 10 goals+
Lost to West Coast by 5 goals again in SUBI..

They haven't had a hardest run ever (and yes you gotta give them credit for flogging Port over there)

Next 2 weeks they play Us & Collingwood, this will really show whether they are Contenders of Pretenders. Im looking forward to a hard fought slobber knocker, a great game for us to bounce back and hopefully show everyone the saints aren't invincible.

Alexxx you can only beat who you play. And reality is we haven't played any teams of note either.

[LostDoggy]

Alexxx you can only beat who you play. And reality is we haven't played any teams of note either.

Yeah i know, im just trying to bring StKilda back to earth a little bit, as some people seem to think they are in the leagues of Geelongs dominance ;)

[Desipura]

Yeah i know, im just trying to bring StKilda back to earth a little bit, as some people seem to think they are in the leagues of Geelongs dominance ;)
Just like they were talking them up a few years back when they won 10 in a row. Only to see them come tumbling down.......

[The Pie Man]

I joined WOOF after we lost to North last year (the Johnson miss) and I had the same gut feel about Hawthorn the next week.

I don't have it this week - though I am supremely confident we'll put in a much improved performance. Whether that translates into a win I'm not sure, but it may. St Kilda are due a loss, but are playing ripping footy

Even if we do lose, I tip the worst we'll be after 8 rounds is 4-4, maybe even 5-3 if we can beat Adelaide over there, which is absolutely possible.

[soupman]

I'm typically an optimist, but I feel a lot more confident playing St.Kilda than Carlton.

[craigsahibee]

Saints have played very well in the first 5 rounds but need to consider who they've played..

Sydney @ Home (Only 2-3 goal win)
Adelaide @ AAMI
West Coast @ Home
Fremantle @ Home
Port Adelaide @ AAMI

3 of those teams are in the bottom 8, Freo dead bottom.

In Comparison we belted freo in SUBI by 10 goals+
Lost to West Coast by 5 goals again in SUBI..

They haven't had a hardest run ever (and yes you gotta give them credit for flogging Port over there)

Next 2 weeks they play Us & Collingwood, this will really show whether they are Contenders of Pretenders. Im looking forward to a hard fought slobber knocker, a great game for us to bounce back and hopefully show everyone the saints aren't invincible.

But it's how they have gone about their wins which has been impressive. They can win ugly (Sydney), thump opponents (Freo, Eagles & Port) and win in hostile venues interstate (AAMI twice) where their record is not flash.

[Remi Moses]

Display the lack of forward pressure we did against Carlton we will be well beaten. The key is forward f***ing pressure.

[Rocket Science]

Display the lack of forward pressure we did against Carlton we will be well beaten. The key is forward f***ing pressure.

Wouldn't mind a modicum of defensive pressure through the corridor as well...we've basically rolled out a 150 metre long red carpet between the arcs over the past two rounds.

[bulldog]

Dogs willwin mark my words boys are pretty eager to bounce back so i have heard expect big things guys

[1eyedog]

The Saints are a confidence side. We may get smashed and go from Grand Final contender to struggling to make the top 4 to fighting for a place in the top 8 here.

[Scorlibo]

I'm all for gut feels, but bajesus St Kilda are red hot. And we're stone cold.

The biggest thing will be getting Cooney back, he is so important to our midfield it's not funny, when he's in, it frees Griffen up as well as allowing Gia to create more upfield - remembering that Gia is one of the best assist players in the league.

[LostDoggy]

I was more worried about Carlton. I'm feeling better about this game but I don't feel a win though. As long as we are more competitive than last week I'll be happy.

I'm interested to see how the Saints go against us though. All their guns are firing at the moment so I hope they kick start us and get us playing better as well.

[LostDoggy]

I was more worried about Carlton. I'm feeling better about this game but I don't feel a win though. As long as we are more competitive than last week I'll be happy.

I'm interested to see how the Saints go against us though. All their guns are firing at the moment so I hope they kick start us and get us playing better as well.

Yeah it seems to have worked for West Coast:(

[LostDoggy]

It's hard to imagine us winning because St Kilda are almost playing at their peak and we are clearly not. It's also hard to imagine our 'senior' boys accepting a 3rd straight loss. My gut feeling is we will get SMASHED or we will win by 40 points and St Kilda's momentum will stop and they'll rejoin the pack. For individual reasons I really want a win because I'm copping so much 'Bulldogs are pretenders' etc. and I don't really have a lot to argue back with.

[OLD SCRAGGer]

Don't know why I have started this thread but I am more confident this week than I was the last two weeks. I don't normally feel this way, but I think we can beat the Saints. I know they have been playing very very well, but no one seems to have put the pressure on them.

We beat them twice last year and they basically have the same team and that will be a confidence booster for us. We can match up with them, we just need our midfield to fire up and get the ball in quickly to the forwards. Cooney back in will make a huge difference, especially to Griffen.

HOPE your gut is right and it's not just a case of swine flu coming on:D

[LostDoggy]

Interesting to note that the bookies have us at $2.72 for a win.

[Mantis]

Interesting to note that the bookies have us at $2.72 for a win.

That's hardly surprising isn't it given the form of the 2 teams, especially over the past 2 weeks?

[LostDoggy]

Surprising given pre-season expectations I think. As bad as we've been I don't think we've dropped that far.

Worth a wee punt methinks.

[LostDoggy]

Dogs will win. You heard it here.

[LostDoggy]

This feels like a replay of last year's Round 3. The Saints were unbackable favourites, went up by 6 goals in the first quarter, and it all looked lost.

Then we clawed it back, won by over 40 points, and kickstarted our season while the Saints cracked and really went backwards for 10+ weeks before getting it together somewhat towards the end of the season.

We both ended up in a Preliminary Final.

Reality is, we're both Top 4 teams from last year, so it could really swing either way, and both teams are good enough to really press an advantage, so it could blow out either way. Could really be a belter of a game if we both turn up to play.

Not game to call it either way, but worried. Still early days though, and 4-2 or 3-3 are decent enough records.

[LostDoggy]

[QUOTE=Lantern;81859]This feels like a replay of last year's Round 3. The Saints were unbackable favourites, went up by 6 goals in the first quarter, and it all looked lost.

Then we clawed it back, won by over 40 points, and kickstarted our season while the Saints cracked and really went backwards for 10+ weeks before getting it together somewhat towards the end of the season.

QUOTE]

Well said.
I believe they should be scared of us, with us being their bogey team!
It'll be a hard fought game.
Ahhhh i remember round 3 last year,,Young Josh Hill played the game of his life, and what i thought was the goal of the year!
Aker was at his red hot best, griffen, cooney, boyd, hahn all played solidly.
Thats what we need this time around.
I remember the Wil Minson goal =D ohhh that was the night of nights =D
Bring it on I say!
Apparently Kozzie and King are out/indefinate!
Is that true?