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The Doctor
23-06-2009, 08:02 PM
Match Preview Round 13

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne

Sunday 2.10pm MCG

Ch#7 at 3pm (Vic)

Ladder Positions

Dogs are 3rd. 8 Wins & 4 Losses. 123.89%

Kangas are 12th. 4 Wins & 8 Losses. 76.27%

Dogs av scores: 112 - 90 (2nd best attack & 6th best defence)

Kangas av scores: 73 - 95 (worst attack & 9th best defence)

At the Selection Table

Dogs

Stephen Tiller (hip) - 2 weeks
Tom Williams - test
Tim Callan - test

Pressing for selection Andrejs Everitt after a good game last week. Tim Callan could be a good match up for Lindsay Thomas. Will the Dogs be tempted to giva another youngster like Sam Reid a run?

Kangas

Daniel Wells (groin), test
Brent Harvey (elbow), test
Jesse Smith (hamstring/ankle), test
Ben Warren (cheekbone), test
Matt Campbell (hamstring), 1-2 weeks
Jack Ziebell (leg), 6 – 10 weeks

Brent Harvey is a real chance to return after missing around 8 weeks. Losing Ziebell is a massive blow. Despite his youth he gave the kangas midfield some energy.

What the Stats Say

Top 5 Goalkickers

Dogs - 21 Johnson, Akermanis, 19 Hill, 17 Giansiracusa, 16 Hahn

Kangas - 18 Hale, 13 Thomas, 11 Edwards, Warren, Petrie

Top 5 Disposals

Dogs - 325 Boyd, 309 Cross, 264 Gilbee, 251 Giansiracusa, 245 Cooney

Kangas - 307 Simpson, 229 Harding, 223 Swallow, 213 McMahon, 210 Firrito

Top 5 Marks

Dogs - 92 Lake, 74 Johnson, 64 Hargrave, 63 Eagleton, 62 Hill

Kangas - 77 Harding, 72 Petrie , 68 McMahon, 65 McIntosh, 60 Simpson

The Lead Up

The Dogs will come in well rested, confident and in white hot form. Cooney is starting to fire, Boyd has been outstanding all year, the defence is settled and the goal scoring options are numerous. The Dogs can also expect more from Murphy and Williams in the second half of the season.

The Kangas it could be argues are in turmoil. A change of coach sees Darren Crocker in the hotseat after the seemingly amicable departure of Laidley. However the spectre of Nathan Buckley looms on the horizon as a possible coaching option for them and speculation about Buckley and others will continue. There is further conjecture about the Kangas off field situation which must also cast a shadow over the club.

Will the change of coach and the desire to prove the knocker wrong (again) help inspire the famous old shinboner spirit? Or has that one been flogged to death and in any case there is no Archer to fly the flag?

The Key Match Ups

Picken v Harvey

Welcome back to AFL footy Boomer. Picken cut him out the first time around and in doing so saved the day for the Dogs. Picken is better now with several scalps to boast about and developing a real sense of belonging in the Bulldogs line up, whereas Harvey will be underdone after a long lay off.

Boyd v Wells

Boyd has been our best midfielder all year and will no doubt lead the charge again. However Wells when on song is a genuine match winner and must be treated with extreme caution. So Boyd is my man to curb his influence yet counter attack against him.

Hale v Lake

Hale is the lead man in the worst attack in the AFL. Lake is the ideal match up for him as he can contest in the air against him and then run off. The Kangas are likely to send Petrie deep forward to torment us which could cause a problem if Williams doesn't play.

The Game Plan

We know what the Dogs will try and do. Run, carry and use multiple scoring options. The Dogs will look to cut out the 1 or 2 danger men the Kangas have with highly skilled negators in Morris and Picken. The rest will be open slather. Eade will back our men to beat most of their opponents after that.

What will the Kangas do to stop us? Hard to say with a new coach. I expect they will play a dour style of game. Plenty of one on ones with Firrito, Harding, Power, Pratt and the like to stick tight to our playmakers. They will look to hurt us on the counter and try to move the ball quickly and long to their tall targets.

The danger for the Dogs will be if the game gets bogged down and we can't get our runners and loose men to run rampant.


The Result

The Dogs will kill them.

If the Kangas play tight it may work on some players for some of the time but it won't work on all of the players all of the time. We have too many options in midfield and up forward for them to contain. They have a reasonably solid defence but lack game breakers across the field. Even more so if Wells is shut down. In attack they are impotent.

Expect Aker, Hill, Murphy, Cooney to have a day out. Boyd, Cross & Picken to continue their fine form and don't be surprised if Minson kicks a few more.

Dogs by 45+

ledge
23-06-2009, 08:08 PM
Crocker mentioned he found his side stopped and propped in the forward line and was encouraging them to keep running this week, so we will have to watch for a different style this time round.

bornadog
23-06-2009, 08:17 PM
Good analysis Doc. The player that always worries me, (besides Harvey) is Petrie. Who do you see taking him on? If Williams doesn't come up, we need some one that can match his height and strength, at 197cm and 105kg, I fear he is too big for Morris, but he will probably have to take him on.

Mantis
23-06-2009, 08:40 PM
Nice preview Doc, good stuff.

As with bornadog I'm a bit worried about Petrie, but hopefully our midfield which is starting to hit it's straps can deny the North forwards the supply they need.

The intensity we have played with since the Geelong game (bar the last 5min of 2nd qtr vs Richmond) has been excellent, if we continue on in this way we should have way too much attacking power for North who really should come out firing.

Scorlibo
23-06-2009, 09:32 PM
Great stuff Doc, I'd just like to add that Ryan Griffen tears it up against the Roos.

AndrewP6
23-06-2009, 10:26 PM
Good preview....hope your result prediction is on the money!

boydogs
23-06-2009, 11:27 PM
Nice preview Doc, good stuff.

As with bornadog I'm a bit worried about Petrie, but hopefully our midfield which is starting to hit it's straps can deny the North forwards the supply they need.

The intensity we have played with since the Geelong game (bar the last 5min of 2nd qtr vs Richmond) has been excellent, if we continue on in this way we should have way too much attacking power for North who really should come out firing.

If Williams doesn't come up, we would probably be relying on Morris v Petrie, and hoping that a dominant midfield, their low scoring attack and possibly wet weather provide cover.

Could Wight or Skipper be included this week?

We may elect to go with Hargrave on Petrie to run off, worked well with Westhoff last week

Mantis
24-06-2009, 07:50 AM
Could Wight or Skipper be included this week?

Where do you want Skipper to play? He has played all this year and last as a mobile ruckman and pinch hit forward, are you suggesting we play him in defence?


We may elect to go with Hargrave on Petrie to run off, worked well with Westhoff last week

Westhoff is just a taller version of Shaggy. Petrie is a power forward who can take contested marks, I don't like this suggested match-up at all.

LostDoggy
24-06-2009, 01:09 PM
This is our current injury list.

Ayce Cordy, Concussion-Test
Lindsay Gilbee, Ankle-Test
Paul O'Shea, Hip-One week
Stephen Tiller, Hip-Two weeks

Sedat
24-06-2009, 03:44 PM
Great write-up Doc.

In light of Gilbee now being a near certainty to miss on Sunday (and judging by his inability to fully recover properly since injuring his ankle way back against Geelong, I'm worried about the medium to long term prognosis of the injury for the rest of this season), we are obviously a quality ball user short down back. Perhaps it's time to release Griffen out of the middle (where he has been excellent in the contested situation but at the expense of breaking the lines) and let him run free off half back, and bring in Sam Reid to fill the breach in the middle.

Campbell is out with a hammy and Thomas has largely been rubbish for most of the season, so I'm happy with us not requiring any additional small defensive cover this week over and above Harbrow.

comrade
24-06-2009, 03:49 PM
Spot on Sedat.

If Everitt is off the radar, I think this is a very good move. It will hopefully free up Griff to run and carry, and I’m confident that Reid would be able to provide some contested drive out of the middle.

Ozza
24-06-2009, 04:21 PM
I would have thought that if Williams plays - he will be on Hale and Brian Lake will go to Petrie.

LostDoggy
24-06-2009, 06:05 PM
This is a Western Bulldogs replacement home game. GA entry for 09 game day members upon presentation of mship card.

Got that sms this arvo, I thought it might have been..glad it is!

Dry Rot
24-06-2009, 11:00 PM
Good preview Doc.

Will we see the same old style from North under a new coach or a new style freed from Laidley's shackles?

boydogs
25-06-2009, 12:48 AM
Where do you want Skipper to play? He has played all this year and last as a mobile ruckman and pinch hit forward, are you suggesting we play him in defence?


In this scenario yes, along with Hudson and Minson collectively sharing the ruckman, pinch hit forward and defender on Petrie or Hale roles. Just asking whether the club would consider this given the potential Petrie mismatch. As I posted on the Ins/Outs thread I don't think we should make a change to the side if Williams is not right



Westhoff is just a taller version of Shaggy. Petrie is a power forward who can take contested marks, I don't like this suggested match-up at all.

How much more effective will Morris be than Hargrave though. I just think Petrie will outmark Morris most times anyway, so why not put someone on Petrie that can expose him for mobility and use Morris on someone he can be more effective against. Of course if it is not working on the day we can change it back, it would not be the gamble that bringing in a Wight or Everitt just for Petrie would be if the match up fails

LostDoggy
25-06-2009, 01:13 PM
Great write-up Doc.

In light of Gilbee now being a near certainty to miss on Sunday (and judging by his inability to fully recover properly since injuring his ankle way back against Geelong, I'm worried about the medium to long term prognosis of the injury for the rest of this season), we are obviously a quality ball user short down back. Perhaps it's time to release Griffen out of the middle (where he has been excellent in the contested situation but at the expense of breaking the lines) and let him run free off half back, and bring in Sam Reid to fill the breach in the middle.

Campbell is out with a hammy and Thomas has largely been rubbish for most of the season, so I'm happy with us not requiring any additional small defensive cover this week over and above Harbrow.

I thought he got a bruised heal similar to Fevola in that game. Hence Eade saying he was fine when running flat out but walking and jogging hurt. The site has reported it as an ankle but they way he carried looked like a bruised heal to me. He definately rolled his ankle in the Darwin game I believe and has not fully recovered from that one yet. I think he will play myself unless the medical staff say no.

lemmon
25-06-2009, 09:06 PM
Should be a good game. Look for the Roos to the move the ball on quicker and get it down to the big guys up front. Like most weeks this game will be won and lost in the midfield. They're big guys cant take the big grabs if the ball isnt getting down their.

bornadog
25-06-2009, 10:57 PM
Should be a good game. Look for the Roos to the move the ball on quicker and get it down to the big guys up front. Like most weeks this game will be won and lost in the midfield. They're big guys cant take the big grabs if the ball isnt getting down their.

and if it does get down there with poor delivery, then watch the ball fly out of the backline, all the way up the other end.

LostDoggy
26-06-2009, 05:11 PM
Hope it's a great game and all the talk about a new coach for Nth Melbourne...blah, blah, blah turns out to be untrue. The dogs are coming into this game in great form (hopefully the week off will be a good thing this year, unlike last year) and should run the begeezus (is that a word?) out of those roos! Dogs by 35 points :D

LostDoggy
26-06-2009, 06:12 PM
I havent yet been through all the forums as im new to this but has anyone been down to training this week? How are the boys looking after the week off?

LostDoggy
26-06-2009, 09:23 PM
In this scenario yes, along with Hudson and Minson collectively sharing the ruckman, pinch hit forward and defender on Petrie or Hale roles. Just asking whether the club would consider this given the potential Petrie mismatch. As I posted on the Ins/Outs thread I don't think we should make a change to the side if Williams is not right




How much more effective will Morris be than Hargrave though. I just think Petrie will outmark Morris most times anyway, so why not put someone on Petrie that can expose him for mobility and use Morris on someone he can be more effective against. Of course if it is not working on the day we can change it back, it would not be the gamble that bringing in a Wight or Everitt just for Petrie would be if the match up fails

I have given up on Skipper getting a game until finals -- unless there is an injury to a corresponding player.

bornadog
26-06-2009, 11:42 PM
I havent yet been through all the forums as im new to this but has anyone been down to training this week? How are the boys looking after the week off?

Welcome to WOOF and enjoy reading and contributing . In regards to training here you go.

http://www.woof.net.au/forum/showthread.php?t=5289

Dry Rot
29-06-2009, 09:59 PM
Good preview Doc.

Will we see the same old style from North under a new coach or a new style freed from Laidley's shackles?

A prescient post. :)


North's game plan was way different.

They did move the ball faster, they played on at every chance and shared it around. It was as if Crocker had released the shackles and told them to just go for it!

They completely owned the centre square and forced us wide. Their backline was awesome.

If it wasn't for a couple of their young kids blowing really good chances we could have easily lost.