Scorlibo
14-07-2009, 05:44 PM
Thanks to Mantis for giving me the opportunity to write this week’s Match Preview, hope I haven’t made too many glaring errors, or missed anything :). Here it is:
Match Preview Round 16
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
Friday 7:40pm, Docklands
Last time we met:
Round 21, 2008, Docklands
Bulldogs 23.13 151 def. Essendon 15.15 105
Form Guide:
Western Bulldogs - 3rd – 10 wins – 5 losses – 127.75%
Although having gone down in their last match against Collingwood, the Doggies have won 7 of their last 9, with the margin of the two losses totaling just 3 points. However there are still question marks over their ability to beat the other 7 sides in the top 8, having played 5 of them for just 1 win. Against the Bombers, they will be keen to resurrect this record.
Essendon – 8th – 8 wins – 7 losses – 103.8%
Coming off a strong 35 point away win against Sydney, the Bombers will be confident coming into this match. Before their Sydney win however, they had lost 4 of their previous 5 by an average margin of 46 points and their only win coming against the lowly placed Melbourne.
Team Stats:
Western Bulldogs:
2nd – Least opponent hitouts per game
3rd – Clearances per game
3rd – Skill errors per game
16th – Least opponent skill errors per game
Essendon
14th – Hitouts per game
15th – Clearances per game
5th – Tackles per game
5th – Team to opponent handballs per game
The stats indicate a clear advantage for the Dogs in the centre of the ground, and they must prove this ascendency on the day if they are to win. The Doggies will also need to improve their pressure to force skill errors from Essendon, who themselves lay plenty of tackles and work their way through the centre of the ground with handballs effectively.
The Selection Table
Western Bulldogs:
The Dogs should go in unchanged provided the selected 22 from last week stay fit. Tim Callan would be the closest to a recall but as Williamstown played on Sunday, it is unlikely that any Willy player should return to the Bulldog side given they would be facing just a 5 day break.
Essendon:
They will most likely go in unchanged, with Nathan Lovett-Murray the biggest chance to return and Skipworth and David Myers the other two in the back of the selectors’ minds.
Key Match-ups
Lloyd v Lake
Lloyd has been consistently kicking 2, 3 and 4 goals, but has only once kicked 5 or more this season. He will be up against the in-form full back of the competition in Lake who 2 weeks ago kept Buddy Franklin scoreless for the first time in over 50 games, and then backed it up last week by ending John Anthony’s run of kicking a goal in every game he had played. In both games Lake was confident and damaging with his run and ball use and continued to pluck his trademark contested marks in the one-on-one contests. Lloyd will be very difficult to keep goalless, and is one of the better marks of the last decades, but one still feels that Lake has the upper hand in this critical duel.
Winderlich v Gilbee
The zippy Winderlich has been one of the best Essendon players this season, hovering around the half-forward flank, he averages nearly 1 goal and nearly 1 goal assist per match. But not only damaging on the scoreboard, Winderlich averages over 20 disposals a match and typifies the Bombers as a team with his run at every opportunity. Gilbee continues to be hampered by a troublesome heel and this season is yet to achieve the right combination of effectiveness with the ball, and ability to get the ball. When Winderlich is forward, Gilbee would appear the best match-up, but if Rocket really rates Winderlich he may put Morris on him.
Hargrave
Like last week, Shaggy could line up on multiple opponents during the night and he should try to be pitted against the least dangerous Bomber forward to utilize his rebounding abilities which have been on show extensively recently. Over the last month he has averaged 31.3 disposals, 8.3 marks, 6.8 rebound fifties and 131 supercoach points, placing him among the most in form players of the competition.
Lucas v Williams
Williams has the best physical attributes to go with Lucas, but Morris or even Lake could play on him. Scotty has regained his touch over the last 5 weeks, kicking 16 goals and not kicking below 3 goals in any of these last 5 matches. He appears to pose the threat to our backline, Williams having just come back in and Morris and Hargrave appearing too small. I thought that Williams would be given the job of Cloke last week but Morris got the job at the start and Morris could again match-up on Lucas at least to begin with to ease Williams into the flow of the game.
Ryder v Hudson/Minson
Ryder has shown this year his versatility as a player by moving into the ruck after David Hille went down with a season ending injury. His leap is phenomenal and he has been known to be pretty handy around the ground also. He will however face an overwhelming task in beating an experienced ruck duo in Hudson and Minson. The pair have worked very well this season, with Hudson’s influence at ground level and Big Will’s continued forward development being very pleasing. Against Ryder they may look to block his run at the footy at the hitouts, consequentially giving the dogs midfielders critical first use at the stoppages.
Lovett v Picken
It would appear as though Andrew Lovett has at last reached his potential this season, with his smooth, lightning runs through the corridor and silky delivery to the forwardline troubling many sides this season. Picken continues to tag the players who hurt their opposition when delivering inside fifty, rendering Lovett the ideal target. Picken has claimed the scalps of such players as Brent Harvey, Brett Deledio, Danyle Pearce, Nick Dal Santo and Chance Bateman this season but this could be one of his tougher tasks after being beaten in 2 of his last 3 outings (Harvey, Didak/Swan). Not only Picken but the entire Dogs midfield can not afford to give Bombers players like Lovett the run through the corridor on which they will thrive. Picken is also a chance of going to Stanton.
Watson v Boyd
The two ball-magnets should go head to head in an interesting duel. Boyd has been very seldom beaten this year and Watson consistently racks up over 25 disposals. It is pretty important that Watson plays a good game, as the Bombers wont have too many other major extractors to turn to. Conversely, Watson’s excellent games are arguably better than Boyd’s, he has the ability to get major doses of leather poisoning and if he does so on Friday night it will be the first step towards Essendon turning around a seemingly lopsided midfield affair.
Stanton v Griffen
Like many midfield match-ups, this one is speculative and these two players will have a few different match-ups throughout the course of the match. Brent Stanton is one Bomber who regularly steps up to the plate against the Doggies, his straight, hard running and ability to kick multiple goals has burned the Doggies in recent encounters. Stanton ranks 15th in the competition for inside fifties and averages over 25 disposals a game. Griffen is starting to prosper in his full time midfield role, and averages more disposals over his last 4 games than at any other 4 game period in his career. He now only needs to again find the polish in his game for which he became so highly rated.
Cooney v Welsh
The Brownlow Medalist has been racking up the numbers in past weeks but still hasn’t been as damaging as we all know he can be with the ball in hand. As the Dogs build towards the finals, hopefully Cooney will be carrying the ball more and more frequently, and that run could start with this match, against a relatively loose and free running side in the Bombers. He has played some very good matches against the Bombers in the past. Welsh should run with Cooney, he gets run with jobs on a regular basis and shows his own potential to win large amounts of the ball. This year since coming back from injury Welsh has averaged 24.3 disposals, while Cooney has averaged 28.3 disposals since coming back from injury and has dropped below 20 disposals just once this season.
Higgins v Reimers
Higgins will be one of the primary players on the Essendon coaching staff’s radar, having been one of the best players around goals in the competition this season. Whoever gets him will need to do their homework and know that he mustn’t be given space to run into, whether with the ball or on the lead. Reimers is a fierce young competitor who would take the Higgins challenge in his stride. In a contest he could prove the equal of a clever Higgins if he shows intent for the football and not the man.
Murphy v Fletcher
Murphy could well spend the whole game forward for this match, after a dominant last term forward against the Pies. The only thing which could force him to stay back is the presence of three big bodies in Lucas, Lloyd and McPhee and a potential match-up on McPhee. He appeared to play himself into form last game and will be one for the Bombers to keep an eye on. Fletcher has the capabilities to play on Murphy, with Pears another possibility but he’s likely to take Welsh and the young, big boy Hurley to line up on Hahn. Fletcher will need to be watched on the rebound by Murphy, as he has been extremely damaging against the Dogs in the past.
Other Interesting Match-ups:
Harbrow v Davey
Cross v McVeigh
Hocking/Slattery v Johnson/Akermanis
Where it will be won or lost:
The Bulldogs must shut down Essendon’s run through the corridor if they are to win, while Essendon have to be competitive around the clearances if they are to win. Whether Patty Ryder can hold his own against Minson/Hudson, or whether he will be 'out-bodied', as Ben Hudson was quoted as saying today, will be critical to Essendon's hopes around the stoppages.
Both sides have many scoring avenues and one would expect a high scoring game, but it would favour the Dogs if it turned out to be a scrappy, contested game.
If the tall defenders can bring the ball to ground for the Bulldogs, and Harbrow, Hargrave, Gilbee can effectively rebound quickly, then there is opportunity to hurt Essendon substantially on the rebound, as they will back their own ability to run forward in numbers and deliver with precision into the fifty. Essendon will look to pressure our defenders, set up the wall, and not allow clean rebound from defense, or at least hold the Dogs up, as Collingwood did well in the first half last week.
Each defensive line-up matches up fairly well on the opposition forwards, although the class of players like Johnson, Akermanis and Higgins could be a bit too much for their direct opponents.
The midfield is where the Dogs will either pull away from Essendon, or be forced into a tight game which we could then very well lose.
The Summary
The Bulldog midfield should be able to win the clearances easily, and although the Bombers’ exciting run and carry style poses a threat in any match, the better sides have thus far this season managed to expose them to a contested brand of football, and in doing so accounted for them comfortably. This is a match that we simply can’t afford to drop if we are to make the top four.
Dogs by 4 goals.
Match Preview Round 16
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
Friday 7:40pm, Docklands
Last time we met:
Round 21, 2008, Docklands
Bulldogs 23.13 151 def. Essendon 15.15 105
Form Guide:
Western Bulldogs - 3rd – 10 wins – 5 losses – 127.75%
Although having gone down in their last match against Collingwood, the Doggies have won 7 of their last 9, with the margin of the two losses totaling just 3 points. However there are still question marks over their ability to beat the other 7 sides in the top 8, having played 5 of them for just 1 win. Against the Bombers, they will be keen to resurrect this record.
Essendon – 8th – 8 wins – 7 losses – 103.8%
Coming off a strong 35 point away win against Sydney, the Bombers will be confident coming into this match. Before their Sydney win however, they had lost 4 of their previous 5 by an average margin of 46 points and their only win coming against the lowly placed Melbourne.
Team Stats:
Western Bulldogs:
2nd – Least opponent hitouts per game
3rd – Clearances per game
3rd – Skill errors per game
16th – Least opponent skill errors per game
Essendon
14th – Hitouts per game
15th – Clearances per game
5th – Tackles per game
5th – Team to opponent handballs per game
The stats indicate a clear advantage for the Dogs in the centre of the ground, and they must prove this ascendency on the day if they are to win. The Doggies will also need to improve their pressure to force skill errors from Essendon, who themselves lay plenty of tackles and work their way through the centre of the ground with handballs effectively.
The Selection Table
Western Bulldogs:
The Dogs should go in unchanged provided the selected 22 from last week stay fit. Tim Callan would be the closest to a recall but as Williamstown played on Sunday, it is unlikely that any Willy player should return to the Bulldog side given they would be facing just a 5 day break.
Essendon:
They will most likely go in unchanged, with Nathan Lovett-Murray the biggest chance to return and Skipworth and David Myers the other two in the back of the selectors’ minds.
Key Match-ups
Lloyd v Lake
Lloyd has been consistently kicking 2, 3 and 4 goals, but has only once kicked 5 or more this season. He will be up against the in-form full back of the competition in Lake who 2 weeks ago kept Buddy Franklin scoreless for the first time in over 50 games, and then backed it up last week by ending John Anthony’s run of kicking a goal in every game he had played. In both games Lake was confident and damaging with his run and ball use and continued to pluck his trademark contested marks in the one-on-one contests. Lloyd will be very difficult to keep goalless, and is one of the better marks of the last decades, but one still feels that Lake has the upper hand in this critical duel.
Winderlich v Gilbee
The zippy Winderlich has been one of the best Essendon players this season, hovering around the half-forward flank, he averages nearly 1 goal and nearly 1 goal assist per match. But not only damaging on the scoreboard, Winderlich averages over 20 disposals a match and typifies the Bombers as a team with his run at every opportunity. Gilbee continues to be hampered by a troublesome heel and this season is yet to achieve the right combination of effectiveness with the ball, and ability to get the ball. When Winderlich is forward, Gilbee would appear the best match-up, but if Rocket really rates Winderlich he may put Morris on him.
Hargrave
Like last week, Shaggy could line up on multiple opponents during the night and he should try to be pitted against the least dangerous Bomber forward to utilize his rebounding abilities which have been on show extensively recently. Over the last month he has averaged 31.3 disposals, 8.3 marks, 6.8 rebound fifties and 131 supercoach points, placing him among the most in form players of the competition.
Lucas v Williams
Williams has the best physical attributes to go with Lucas, but Morris or even Lake could play on him. Scotty has regained his touch over the last 5 weeks, kicking 16 goals and not kicking below 3 goals in any of these last 5 matches. He appears to pose the threat to our backline, Williams having just come back in and Morris and Hargrave appearing too small. I thought that Williams would be given the job of Cloke last week but Morris got the job at the start and Morris could again match-up on Lucas at least to begin with to ease Williams into the flow of the game.
Ryder v Hudson/Minson
Ryder has shown this year his versatility as a player by moving into the ruck after David Hille went down with a season ending injury. His leap is phenomenal and he has been known to be pretty handy around the ground also. He will however face an overwhelming task in beating an experienced ruck duo in Hudson and Minson. The pair have worked very well this season, with Hudson’s influence at ground level and Big Will’s continued forward development being very pleasing. Against Ryder they may look to block his run at the footy at the hitouts, consequentially giving the dogs midfielders critical first use at the stoppages.
Lovett v Picken
It would appear as though Andrew Lovett has at last reached his potential this season, with his smooth, lightning runs through the corridor and silky delivery to the forwardline troubling many sides this season. Picken continues to tag the players who hurt their opposition when delivering inside fifty, rendering Lovett the ideal target. Picken has claimed the scalps of such players as Brent Harvey, Brett Deledio, Danyle Pearce, Nick Dal Santo and Chance Bateman this season but this could be one of his tougher tasks after being beaten in 2 of his last 3 outings (Harvey, Didak/Swan). Not only Picken but the entire Dogs midfield can not afford to give Bombers players like Lovett the run through the corridor on which they will thrive. Picken is also a chance of going to Stanton.
Watson v Boyd
The two ball-magnets should go head to head in an interesting duel. Boyd has been very seldom beaten this year and Watson consistently racks up over 25 disposals. It is pretty important that Watson plays a good game, as the Bombers wont have too many other major extractors to turn to. Conversely, Watson’s excellent games are arguably better than Boyd’s, he has the ability to get major doses of leather poisoning and if he does so on Friday night it will be the first step towards Essendon turning around a seemingly lopsided midfield affair.
Stanton v Griffen
Like many midfield match-ups, this one is speculative and these two players will have a few different match-ups throughout the course of the match. Brent Stanton is one Bomber who regularly steps up to the plate against the Doggies, his straight, hard running and ability to kick multiple goals has burned the Doggies in recent encounters. Stanton ranks 15th in the competition for inside fifties and averages over 25 disposals a game. Griffen is starting to prosper in his full time midfield role, and averages more disposals over his last 4 games than at any other 4 game period in his career. He now only needs to again find the polish in his game for which he became so highly rated.
Cooney v Welsh
The Brownlow Medalist has been racking up the numbers in past weeks but still hasn’t been as damaging as we all know he can be with the ball in hand. As the Dogs build towards the finals, hopefully Cooney will be carrying the ball more and more frequently, and that run could start with this match, against a relatively loose and free running side in the Bombers. He has played some very good matches against the Bombers in the past. Welsh should run with Cooney, he gets run with jobs on a regular basis and shows his own potential to win large amounts of the ball. This year since coming back from injury Welsh has averaged 24.3 disposals, while Cooney has averaged 28.3 disposals since coming back from injury and has dropped below 20 disposals just once this season.
Higgins v Reimers
Higgins will be one of the primary players on the Essendon coaching staff’s radar, having been one of the best players around goals in the competition this season. Whoever gets him will need to do their homework and know that he mustn’t be given space to run into, whether with the ball or on the lead. Reimers is a fierce young competitor who would take the Higgins challenge in his stride. In a contest he could prove the equal of a clever Higgins if he shows intent for the football and not the man.
Murphy v Fletcher
Murphy could well spend the whole game forward for this match, after a dominant last term forward against the Pies. The only thing which could force him to stay back is the presence of three big bodies in Lucas, Lloyd and McPhee and a potential match-up on McPhee. He appeared to play himself into form last game and will be one for the Bombers to keep an eye on. Fletcher has the capabilities to play on Murphy, with Pears another possibility but he’s likely to take Welsh and the young, big boy Hurley to line up on Hahn. Fletcher will need to be watched on the rebound by Murphy, as he has been extremely damaging against the Dogs in the past.
Other Interesting Match-ups:
Harbrow v Davey
Cross v McVeigh
Hocking/Slattery v Johnson/Akermanis
Where it will be won or lost:
The Bulldogs must shut down Essendon’s run through the corridor if they are to win, while Essendon have to be competitive around the clearances if they are to win. Whether Patty Ryder can hold his own against Minson/Hudson, or whether he will be 'out-bodied', as Ben Hudson was quoted as saying today, will be critical to Essendon's hopes around the stoppages.
Both sides have many scoring avenues and one would expect a high scoring game, but it would favour the Dogs if it turned out to be a scrappy, contested game.
If the tall defenders can bring the ball to ground for the Bulldogs, and Harbrow, Hargrave, Gilbee can effectively rebound quickly, then there is opportunity to hurt Essendon substantially on the rebound, as they will back their own ability to run forward in numbers and deliver with precision into the fifty. Essendon will look to pressure our defenders, set up the wall, and not allow clean rebound from defense, or at least hold the Dogs up, as Collingwood did well in the first half last week.
Each defensive line-up matches up fairly well on the opposition forwards, although the class of players like Johnson, Akermanis and Higgins could be a bit too much for their direct opponents.
The midfield is where the Dogs will either pull away from Essendon, or be forced into a tight game which we could then very well lose.
The Summary
The Bulldog midfield should be able to win the clearances easily, and although the Bombers’ exciting run and carry style poses a threat in any match, the better sides have thus far this season managed to expose them to a contested brand of football, and in doing so accounted for them comfortably. This is a match that we simply can’t afford to drop if we are to make the top four.
Dogs by 4 goals.