PDA

View Full Version : Round 16 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs v Essendon



Scorlibo
14-07-2009, 05:44 PM
Thanks to Mantis for giving me the opportunity to write this week’s Match Preview, hope I haven’t made too many glaring errors, or missed anything :). Here it is:

Match Preview Round 16
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
Friday 7:40pm, Docklands

Last time we met:
Round 21, 2008, Docklands
Bulldogs 23.13 151 def. Essendon 15.15 105

Form Guide:
Western Bulldogs - 3rd – 10 wins – 5 losses – 127.75%
Although having gone down in their last match against Collingwood, the Doggies have won 7 of their last 9, with the margin of the two losses totaling just 3 points. However there are still question marks over their ability to beat the other 7 sides in the top 8, having played 5 of them for just 1 win. Against the Bombers, they will be keen to resurrect this record.

Essendon – 8th – 8 wins – 7 losses – 103.8%
Coming off a strong 35 point away win against Sydney, the Bombers will be confident coming into this match. Before their Sydney win however, they had lost 4 of their previous 5 by an average margin of 46 points and their only win coming against the lowly placed Melbourne.

Team Stats:
Western Bulldogs:
2nd – Least opponent hitouts per game
3rd – Clearances per game
3rd – Skill errors per game
16th – Least opponent skill errors per game

Essendon
14th – Hitouts per game
15th – Clearances per game
5th – Tackles per game
5th – Team to opponent handballs per game

The stats indicate a clear advantage for the Dogs in the centre of the ground, and they must prove this ascendency on the day if they are to win. The Doggies will also need to improve their pressure to force skill errors from Essendon, who themselves lay plenty of tackles and work their way through the centre of the ground with handballs effectively.

The Selection Table

Western Bulldogs:
The Dogs should go in unchanged provided the selected 22 from last week stay fit. Tim Callan would be the closest to a recall but as Williamstown played on Sunday, it is unlikely that any Willy player should return to the Bulldog side given they would be facing just a 5 day break.

Essendon:
They will most likely go in unchanged, with Nathan Lovett-Murray the biggest chance to return and Skipworth and David Myers the other two in the back of the selectors’ minds.

Key Match-ups

Lloyd v Lake
Lloyd has been consistently kicking 2, 3 and 4 goals, but has only once kicked 5 or more this season. He will be up against the in-form full back of the competition in Lake who 2 weeks ago kept Buddy Franklin scoreless for the first time in over 50 games, and then backed it up last week by ending John Anthony’s run of kicking a goal in every game he had played. In both games Lake was confident and damaging with his run and ball use and continued to pluck his trademark contested marks in the one-on-one contests. Lloyd will be very difficult to keep goalless, and is one of the better marks of the last decades, but one still feels that Lake has the upper hand in this critical duel.

Winderlich v Gilbee
The zippy Winderlich has been one of the best Essendon players this season, hovering around the half-forward flank, he averages nearly 1 goal and nearly 1 goal assist per match. But not only damaging on the scoreboard, Winderlich averages over 20 disposals a match and typifies the Bombers as a team with his run at every opportunity. Gilbee continues to be hampered by a troublesome heel and this season is yet to achieve the right combination of effectiveness with the ball, and ability to get the ball. When Winderlich is forward, Gilbee would appear the best match-up, but if Rocket really rates Winderlich he may put Morris on him.

Hargrave
Like last week, Shaggy could line up on multiple opponents during the night and he should try to be pitted against the least dangerous Bomber forward to utilize his rebounding abilities which have been on show extensively recently. Over the last month he has averaged 31.3 disposals, 8.3 marks, 6.8 rebound fifties and 131 supercoach points, placing him among the most in form players of the competition.

Lucas v Williams
Williams has the best physical attributes to go with Lucas, but Morris or even Lake could play on him. Scotty has regained his touch over the last 5 weeks, kicking 16 goals and not kicking below 3 goals in any of these last 5 matches. He appears to pose the threat to our backline, Williams having just come back in and Morris and Hargrave appearing too small. I thought that Williams would be given the job of Cloke last week but Morris got the job at the start and Morris could again match-up on Lucas at least to begin with to ease Williams into the flow of the game.

Ryder v Hudson/Minson
Ryder has shown this year his versatility as a player by moving into the ruck after David Hille went down with a season ending injury. His leap is phenomenal and he has been known to be pretty handy around the ground also. He will however face an overwhelming task in beating an experienced ruck duo in Hudson and Minson. The pair have worked very well this season, with Hudson’s influence at ground level and Big Will’s continued forward development being very pleasing. Against Ryder they may look to block his run at the footy at the hitouts, consequentially giving the dogs midfielders critical first use at the stoppages.

Lovett v Picken
It would appear as though Andrew Lovett has at last reached his potential this season, with his smooth, lightning runs through the corridor and silky delivery to the forwardline troubling many sides this season. Picken continues to tag the players who hurt their opposition when delivering inside fifty, rendering Lovett the ideal target. Picken has claimed the scalps of such players as Brent Harvey, Brett Deledio, Danyle Pearce, Nick Dal Santo and Chance Bateman this season but this could be one of his tougher tasks after being beaten in 2 of his last 3 outings (Harvey, Didak/Swan). Not only Picken but the entire Dogs midfield can not afford to give Bombers players like Lovett the run through the corridor on which they will thrive. Picken is also a chance of going to Stanton.

Watson v Boyd
The two ball-magnets should go head to head in an interesting duel. Boyd has been very seldom beaten this year and Watson consistently racks up over 25 disposals. It is pretty important that Watson plays a good game, as the Bombers wont have too many other major extractors to turn to. Conversely, Watson’s excellent games are arguably better than Boyd’s, he has the ability to get major doses of leather poisoning and if he does so on Friday night it will be the first step towards Essendon turning around a seemingly lopsided midfield affair.

Stanton v Griffen
Like many midfield match-ups, this one is speculative and these two players will have a few different match-ups throughout the course of the match. Brent Stanton is one Bomber who regularly steps up to the plate against the Doggies, his straight, hard running and ability to kick multiple goals has burned the Doggies in recent encounters. Stanton ranks 15th in the competition for inside fifties and averages over 25 disposals a game. Griffen is starting to prosper in his full time midfield role, and averages more disposals over his last 4 games than at any other 4 game period in his career. He now only needs to again find the polish in his game for which he became so highly rated.

Cooney v Welsh
The Brownlow Medalist has been racking up the numbers in past weeks but still hasn’t been as damaging as we all know he can be with the ball in hand. As the Dogs build towards the finals, hopefully Cooney will be carrying the ball more and more frequently, and that run could start with this match, against a relatively loose and free running side in the Bombers. He has played some very good matches against the Bombers in the past. Welsh should run with Cooney, he gets run with jobs on a regular basis and shows his own potential to win large amounts of the ball. This year since coming back from injury Welsh has averaged 24.3 disposals, while Cooney has averaged 28.3 disposals since coming back from injury and has dropped below 20 disposals just once this season.

Higgins v Reimers
Higgins will be one of the primary players on the Essendon coaching staff’s radar, having been one of the best players around goals in the competition this season. Whoever gets him will need to do their homework and know that he mustn’t be given space to run into, whether with the ball or on the lead. Reimers is a fierce young competitor who would take the Higgins challenge in his stride. In a contest he could prove the equal of a clever Higgins if he shows intent for the football and not the man.

Murphy v Fletcher
Murphy could well spend the whole game forward for this match, after a dominant last term forward against the Pies. The only thing which could force him to stay back is the presence of three big bodies in Lucas, Lloyd and McPhee and a potential match-up on McPhee. He appeared to play himself into form last game and will be one for the Bombers to keep an eye on. Fletcher has the capabilities to play on Murphy, with Pears another possibility but he’s likely to take Welsh and the young, big boy Hurley to line up on Hahn. Fletcher will need to be watched on the rebound by Murphy, as he has been extremely damaging against the Dogs in the past.

Other Interesting Match-ups:
Harbrow v Davey
Cross v McVeigh
Hocking/Slattery v Johnson/Akermanis

Where it will be won or lost:
The Bulldogs must shut down Essendon’s run through the corridor if they are to win, while Essendon have to be competitive around the clearances if they are to win. Whether Patty Ryder can hold his own against Minson/Hudson, or whether he will be 'out-bodied', as Ben Hudson was quoted as saying today, will be critical to Essendon's hopes around the stoppages.
Both sides have many scoring avenues and one would expect a high scoring game, but it would favour the Dogs if it turned out to be a scrappy, contested game.
If the tall defenders can bring the ball to ground for the Bulldogs, and Harbrow, Hargrave, Gilbee can effectively rebound quickly, then there is opportunity to hurt Essendon substantially on the rebound, as they will back their own ability to run forward in numbers and deliver with precision into the fifty. Essendon will look to pressure our defenders, set up the wall, and not allow clean rebound from defense, or at least hold the Dogs up, as Collingwood did well in the first half last week.
Each defensive line-up matches up fairly well on the opposition forwards, although the class of players like Johnson, Akermanis and Higgins could be a bit too much for their direct opponents.
The midfield is where the Dogs will either pull away from Essendon, or be forced into a tight game which we could then very well lose.

The Summary
The Bulldog midfield should be able to win the clearances easily, and although the Bombers’ exciting run and carry style poses a threat in any match, the better sides have thus far this season managed to expose them to a contested brand of football, and in doing so accounted for them comfortably. This is a match that we simply can’t afford to drop if we are to make the top four.
Dogs by 4 goals.

Scraggers
15-07-2009, 03:54 AM
Great review Scorlibo ... Job well done :)

I too think the game will be won in the midfield ... but I disagree with you that the Bulldogs will win the clearances easily ... this Bomber midfield (as you have pointed out) is a very capable one. If we do indeed win the clearances easily then we win by 10+ goals. Share the clearances, and we win by two goals ... I would rather option A (thanks Eddie ... lock it in)

Mantis
15-07-2009, 07:39 AM
Good work on the preview Scorlibo... Well done.

As mentioned it really shapes as a battle of the midfields, a battle of intensity and a battle of execution. If we can get back to applying consistent pressure on our opponents and use the ball well in attack we should have a bit too much class for the Bombers. However if we allow the game to become a shoot-out as suggested in the media I can see us playing directly into Essendon's hands. Essendon are an attacking team which thrive on the run and carry of it's outside players. Hopefully Eade's call of a 50 goal game is a bluff and we make this game a physical contest because if we do we should win and win comfortably.

Players of concern are Stanton, Lovett & Watson and I hope that we put some time into these players. In your preview you have suggested that Griffen will go to Stanton, if this match-up eventuates I would hope that Ryan keeps a tight rein on Stanton as he is one player who has performed consistently well against us in the past.

Good chance for us to bounce straight back after a poor perfromance last week so hopefully our boys play to our strengths and hit Essendon with everything we have.

Go_Dogs
15-07-2009, 08:13 AM
Yes, as Mantis said taking a lock down approach is crucial. We haven't done this against sides like Carlton, ever, over the last few years, so I'm not sure what is going to change this weekend - but hopefully you are right.

I think we have too many big bodies, and should be able to match them in most areas fairly comfortably if we play well. Should be an entertaining game.

Mofra
15-07-2009, 09:25 AM
Good review, most of the layer match ups would be as expected.

Only contingency I'd change is McPhee - if he's forward, I'd expect Morris to go to him, with Williams on Lucas & Lake on Lloyd. Murphy may not be able to spend the whole game forward if he is still regaining full match fitness, but his presenting as an option on the HF line is important to us as size for size he can beat most opponents in the air (mostly through superior judgement).

The Coon Dog
15-07-2009, 09:36 AM
One of Essendon's strengths is when they get first hands on the ball after a stoppage. Most teams are wary, very wary of their quicker players & at stoppages opposition players seem to 'spread' in order to combat the Bomber's pace. This then allows Watson & Prismall that split second extra to distribute from the clearences. Just something we have to watch.

always right
15-07-2009, 09:55 AM
Coondog....heard on SEN this morning that we are nursing Higgins (groin) and Cooney (groin/knee) along on a week to week basis. No surprises with Higgins but I hadn't heard that Cooney was still struggling. Any inside info on this one? Would hate to see blokes limping into the finals.

The Coon Dog
15-07-2009, 10:02 AM
Coondog....heard on SEN this morning that we are nursing Higgins (groin) and Cooney (groin/knee) along on a week to week basis. No surprises with Higgins but I hadn't heard that Cooney was still struggling. Any inside info on this one? Would hate to see blokes limping into the finals.

No, I know nothing on this.

I reckon Sedat hit the nail on the head in another thread when he said it was just so important to manage players through the season, particularly on the hard ES surface.

Sedat
15-07-2009, 10:21 AM
Great preview Scorlibo.

Round 16-22 has been the Bermuda Triangle for us in the last 2 seasons - in Round 16 2007 and 2008 we were given a brutal lesson in hard, uncompromising, finals-intensity football by Geelong. There are strong parallels between the Dogs of 2-3 years ago and the current Essendon list, which plays with the same flair and freedom - it would be nice for us to "do a Geelong" on them, and teach them in no uncertain terms what is required to take the next step. I think we are starting to develop a ruthless streak but I'd like to see us ramp that up significantly on Friday night, and we are capable of doing so if we bring that ferocious defensive attitude we brought to the table against the Hawks.

Would be remiss not to mention the work of Lonergan as their defensive forward who keeps the opposition defensive rebounders honest - I think he's a monty to go to Gilbee this week. Watson is the key in the middle. He is their extractor, who keeps them competitive at the stoppages, which feeds their line breakers and gut runners to do their thing. We keep a tight leash on Watson and we go a long way to muzzling the Essendon run and carry game plan. And we'll need to because they are a quicker team than us across most lines.

Scorlibo
15-07-2009, 11:20 AM
Would be remiss not to mention the work of Lonergan as their defensive forward who keeps the opposition defensive rebounders honest - I think he's a monty to go to Gilbee this week. Watson is the key in the middle. He is their extractor, who keeps them competitive at the stoppages, which feeds their line breakers and gut runners to do their thing. We keep a tight leash on Watson and we go a long way to muzzling the Essendon run and carry game plan. And we'll need to because they are a quicker team than us across most lines.

I initially had Lonergan lining up on Hargrave, but yes he could well go to Gilbee, as the opposition will know that Gilbee doesn't deal too well with forward tags.

Mofra
15-07-2009, 12:09 PM
I initially had Lonergan lining up on Hargrave, but yes he could well go to Gilbee, as the opposition will know that Gilbee doesn't deal too well with forward tags.
Makes Harbrow's form even more important - if Gilbee is held and Shaggy has an off night he's the one who will give us the most drive.

Mantis
15-07-2009, 05:55 PM
Makes Harbrow's form even more important - if Gilbee is held and Shaggy has an off night he's the one who will give us the most drive.

In fairness Gilbee hasn't played a lot of footy in the back half this year.

dog town
15-07-2009, 07:48 PM
Perfect game for us to show how far we have come. We harder, tougher and more experienced and should be able to close them down. It is a fantastic chance for us to test our pressure skills and defensive skills against a good team that will come at us relentlessly all night.

I remember watching a younger bombers side almost get us early last season. It seemed to take us a half to figure out how to play them. We over committed to our tackles and they just broke through the center with ease. After half time we began to corrale them and work together to close down the space and things got a lot easier. Make no mistake about this game, if we dont come to play we will get blown away. They run at you for 4 quarters in a way I dont think the league has seen yet.

Eade has been talking up a shoot out this week. I am not sure he would be using that term with the players. I think we are capable of kicking a big score against them but that will stem from the defensive side of our game. They run in waves and try to create overlap through the middle. We just need to hold back for a chance to tackle then stick it when we have hemmed them in a little bit. It is really about us doing exactly what good sides did to us for years.