The formula for third spot - what we need next week

[angelopetraglia]

We need to win next week by approximately 22 points to snatch third.

Current State after R21

Pies 2098 1678 125.03%
Dogs 2278 1864 122.21%

If Dogs win score;

Score 110 88

End state after R22

Pies 2186 1788 122.26%
Dogs 2388 1952 122.34%

Above is the calculation.

108 is our average score for the year. You would think it may be a little lower against the pies.

But under this scenario 22 points is enough to snatch third.

[Twodogs]

Does anyone know what the percentage figure is rounded up to? I think it's three decimal points.


If a 22 point win gets us over the line what margin will cause the percentage to be drawn? Is it a play off for third spot or is toss of a coin to decide? Wouldnt that throw a spanner in the works!

[LostDoggy]

I am sure Saints are resting players or loading up at training but are they possibly, slightly less intimidating after 2 losses at the wrong end of the season. Certainly our loss against West Coast did not turn out to be indicative of where we were at and our last two wins would give us a lot of confidence against the better teams.

[LostDoggy]

Do we want 3rd spot? Saints aren't particulary in top form

[Rocco Jones]

Does anyone know what the percentage figure is rounded up to? If a 22 point win gets us over the line what margin will cause the percentage to be drawn?


Is it a play off for third spot or is toss of a coin to decide?

It will be mathematically impossible for the percentages to be drawn. We might have to go into the thousandths or ten thousandths decimal place value though. :)

[Happy Days]

Do we want 3rd spot? Saints aren't particulary in top form

Better the devil you know.

We did just beat the Cats like two days ago after all.

[angelopetraglia]

How many decimal places do they go down to calculate %?

A score of 40-18 would have the percentages both at 123.17% but separated when they go down to three decimal places.

No idea what the actual rule states or what happens in the event of an exact tie, i.e. totals for both for and against are exactly the same therefore no amount of decimal places will split.

[anfo27]

Do we want 3rd spot? Saints aren't particulary in top form

The cats will be coming back from Perth.

[Rocco Jones]

Like Angelo, I had the calculator ready for the end of the Swans vs Pies game.

22 seems the magic number. Have gone as high as 140-118 and it still is the minimum amount we need.

[boydogs]

The cats will be coming back from Perth.

Saints will be playing on the Sunday and so have the same length break as us, Cats play on the Saturday. Geelong has players to come back and gain match fitness, Saints have lost two on the trot at home to teams outside the eight at near full strength

You would almost pick Collingwood and us to get the week off at this point, and the winner between us next week to be near flag favourites. Quite strange given how far clear the top two have been all season

[Rocco Jones]

82-60 would just get us into third as well. So I think it is relatively simply, win by 22 points or more and we get third.

Just for those wanting to finish fourth, another benefit is that we would probably get a 7 day break instead of 6.

[Rocco Jones]

How many decimal places do they go down to calculate %?

A score of 40-18 would have the percentages both at 123.17% but separated when they go down to three decimal places.

No idea what the actual rule states or what happens in the event of an exact tie, i.e. totals for both for and against are exactly the same therefore no amount of decimal places will split.

As many decimal places as needed.

[Topdog]

Would love to win by exactly 22 points just to really irritate those toothless Pie fans.

[LostDoggy]

Would love to win by exactly 22 points just to really irritate those toothless Pie fans.

That would be funny.

[Born & Bred]

Do we want 3rd spot? Saints aren't particulary in top form

Of course we want to finish 3rd and knock off Geelong in the 1st week. That would mean Geelong and St Kilda would be put into the same side of the draw and play off in a prelim. We would also get a week off which we very beneficial.

The time to strike is now.

[boydogs]

82-60 would just get us into third as well. So I think it is relatively simply, win by 22 points or more and we get third.

Pretty much
If we score 0-39 points, we need to win by 23
If we score 40-150 points, we need to win by 22
If we score 151-274 points, we need to win by 21

[Mofra]

Of course we want to finish 3rd and knock off Geelong in the 1st week. That would mean Geelong and St Kilda would be put into the same side of the draw and play off in a prelim. We would also get a week off which we very beneficial.

The time to strike is now.
Not necessarily. Collingwood would be close to favourites against St Kilda. Pies & Carlton are the form teams of the comp with us a very close 3rd.

[LostDoggy]

We're deffinatly capable of getting a 22point win, I reckon we can do it =]
*crossed fingers*

[Bulldog Joe]

I am warming to the idea that finishing 4th and playing St Kilda is the best option. We are then guaranteed not to play the Saints in a prelim.

What the heck lets just win and then follow up with 3 more wins and cheer the premiership team.

[bulldogtragic]

The cats will be coming back from Perth.
If by Perth, you mean Geelong :)

[bulldogtragic]

If by Perth, you mean Geelong :)
I don't care who we beat in the 1st week :)

[BulldogBelle]

If Collingwood beat us by 10 goals and Carlton beat Adelaide by 10 goals, we drop to 5th.

[LostDoggy]

If Collingwood beat us by 10 goals and Carlton beat Adelaide by 10 goals, we drop to 5th.

It can happen, but realistically i can't see this coming to pass.

[LostDoggy]

We need to win next week by approximately 22 points to snatch third.

Current State after R21

Pies 2098 1678 125.03%
Dogs 2278 1864 122.21%

If Dogs win score;

Score 110 88

End state after R22

Pies 2186 1788 122.26%
Dogs 2388 1952 122.34%

Above is the calculation.

108 is our average score for the year. You would think it may be a little lower against the pies.

But under this scenario 22 points is enough to snatch third.

I think it'd be a hell of a lot easier to do a points differential system like in the NRL. That way we'd know EXACTLY how many points we need to win by to get 3rd. Eg. Currently Collingwoods PD is +398. Ours is +436. Actually, when you work it out that way we're in front!! MUCH BETTER SYSTEM!!!!!!! :D

[Rocco Jones]

If Collingwood beat us by 10 goals and Carlton beat Adelaide by 10 goals, we drop to 5th.

I think the benefit of resting a couple of key-players who really need it is a much bigger reality than that.

[Rocco Jones]

I think it'd be a hell of a lot easier to do a points differential system like in the NRL. That way we'd know EXACTLY how many points we need to win by to get 3rd. Eg. Currently Collingwoods PD is +398. Ours is +436. Actually, when you work it out that way we're in front!! MUCH BETTER SYSTEM!!!!!!! :D

The AFL has more variables when it comes to grounds. A points differential system would really benefit strong sides who play a lot of games at Docklands for example, with the closed enhancing scoring. As a high scoring side that plays home games at Docklands, we would benefit from the PD system.

I think a 80-40 win in tough, wet conditions is more dominant that a 130-80 win under a roof.

Woops I just realised you were taking the piss. What a silly sausage I am!

[LostDoggy]

The AFL has more variables when it comes to grounds. A points differential system would really benefit strong sides who play a lot of games at Docklands for example, with the closed enhancing scoring. As a high scoring side that plays home games at Docklands, we would benefit from the PD system.

I think a 80-40 win in tough, wet conditions is more dominant that a 130-80 win under a roof.

Woops I just realised you were taking the piss. What a silly sausage I am!

Actually I was being quite serious!! But I understand where you're coming from with ground variables etc. Those teams that play under a closed roof would definately benefit.

[LostDoggy]

The different grounds and weather benefitting one team and not others is not a great concern. Been like that for years and we can't change it. The biggest issue here is how the teams all play at different time in the last week. Easier to conjure up the result you require when you know at the start of the game what you exactly need.
IIRC Happened to North last year.

[Rocco Jones]

The different grounds and weather benefitting one team and not others is not a great concern. Been like that for years and we can't change it..

Sorry? It has been like that for years and for years (since VFL/AFL started?) we have had % instead of PD.

I am arguing for the status-quo not against it.

[LostDoggy]

Sorry? It has been like that for years and for years (since VFL/AFL started?) we have had % instead of PD.

I am arguing for the status-quo not against it.

and I wasn't saying you were wrong

[Sedat]

The percentage method of calculation favours dour, defensive teams over the attacking, higher scoring teams.

[Mofra]

The percentage method of calculation favours dour, defensive teams over the attacking, higher scoring teams.
Not necessarily - it's really just points differential with the added mathematical bias towards those that beat their opponents by a greater percentage margin than others.
It's a much fairer system than a points differential IMO.

[Sedat]

Not necessarily - it's really just points differential with the added mathematical bias towards those that beat their opponents by a greater percentage margin than others.
It's a much fairer system than a points differential IMO.
If team 'a' averages 90 points a game and concedes 80, and team 'b' averages 110 points a game and concedes 100, the points differential will be identical, but the percentages will be as follows:

Team 'a': 112.5%
Team 'b': 110.0%

As you point out, the added mathematical bias goes towards the teams that can strangle their opposition. This plays into the hands of the more defensive oriented teams, which is exactly what I stated in my previous post. I didn't say whether or not this was a fairer system.

Soccer uses goal difference and then goes a step further by rewarding the heavier scoring teams when the goal differential is identical between two clubs, so the philosophy at play is to reward the more attacking teams.

[Cyberdoggie]

I am warming to the idea that finishing 4th and playing St Kilda is the best option. We are then guaranteed not to play the Saints in a prelim.

What the heck lets just win and then follow up with 3 more wins and cheer the premiership team.

it's a tough one isn't it.

The big point for me is that i don't want us to flirt with our form.

We are playing great footy, but we have the capacity to forget how to do that.

We have done it twice already this year and it has taken us weeks to work out how to get it back again.

[Twodogs]

As many decimal places as needed.



I think it's only rounded up to three decimal places and then third spot is decided by whichever team has the best head to head record, so the comeback and one point loss against them in R14 might not have quite so frustrating.