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Raw Toast
27-08-2009, 08:25 PM
Cheers to Mantis for organising these and to inviting me to do this one.

Thought I'd go a bit left-field with this one - Didak was done earlier, the Shaw Bros last year and Swan is the obvious choice (he's killing it in almost every midfield category this year but I'm not quite sure how), and I think what happens with Presti will be at the centre of the coaching battle between Eade and Malthouse and go along way to determining which team wins.

The key proviso with all the match-ups and tactics this Sunday arvo is how much each coach leaves in reserve for a possible meeting in the third or fourth week in September. Though winning form is good form, I suspect that we're likely to hold a little back, but it obviously depends a bit on how much we want to play the Cats in the first week.

Most of us thought that Lake had been building towards a great year, but Presti's form as a full-back (or something like that old-fashioned concept) has been really surprising. A 31yr old in his 14th season, Presti is in close to career-best form. While his stats are not nearly as impressive as Lake's or the other main contenders for All Australian Full Back, Presti has consistently shut-down key opposition forwards and plays a super-important role in Collingwood's defense. Only O'Brien and Maxwell spend more time on the ground (of the Pies current team), and he's also up there in terms of 1%ers.

But Presti's form is hard to gauge with stats. Instead I think it's partly about the retirement of Shane Wakelin, obviously a good year with injuries, and two other more game-related factors. The first is that the mid-field zones which most teams do a bit of now, require some good one-on-one defenders for when the opposition breaks through (exhibit A = the Hawks backline issues this year). The second is Collingwood's structure. They want Maxwell to play the Harley role and depend on Presti nullifying a key threat so that everyone else (O'Brien, Shaw, Toovey, Johnson etc), can become an avenue of attack.

And that's where Eade comes in. Malthouse loves his structures, and Eade loves messing with them. It began with us in the first game of 2005 when the very settled Pies defense was made to look way to top heavy by our mosquito forward-line (assisted by Darcy), and Presti and Wakelin spent a fair bit of time on the bench. Since then Malthouse has generally only gone with one tall defender against us.

Presti was good against our dismal entries to the F50 for the first three quarters of our last encounter. And he can match-up well on Minson, and you'd think he'd be ok on Welsh as well. But if Eade can turn him into a liability then the Pies settled defensive structure is in danger and they'll be left with Maxwell who zones off, and a set of attacking defenders who are going to be vulnerable to being isolated one-on-one and to forwards running towards goal (as they did very well last week).

It's a pretty big if, but as I noted earlier, I think this will be a crucial battle. I'd be tempted to start with Welsh down back for this reason, Minson initially on the bench, and to see what havoc we can cause.

BulldogBelle
27-08-2009, 08:42 PM
As a small note he'll be playing carrying a broken rib. (or ribs? I don't think so.)

Great write-up.

Remi Moses
27-08-2009, 09:03 PM
Gotta make sure we make him kick the ball. Great stopper but an ordinary kick

Raw Toast
27-08-2009, 10:05 PM
Gotta make sure we make him kick the ball. Great stopper but an ordinary kick

Good point but the Pies don't play the same way as the Saints, so it's harder to do something like this - while the Saints switch the ball to the free player (and the opposition can try and choose which player they leave free), the Pies come down the wing much more, so you need to stop them getting the free player for the short of longish kick down the line, and even then they're quite likely to kick it up the line anyway (or try and find someone who can give them some run).

Mantis
28-08-2009, 07:30 AM
It's a pretty big if, but as I noted earlier, I think this will be a crucial battle. I'd be tempted to start with Welsh down back for this reason, Minson initially on the bench, and to see what havoc we can cause.

If one of Fraser, Brown or Wood start forward one would suggest this could eventuate, but if it doesn't then there isn't really another forward Welsh can go to. What happens then?

Raw Toast
28-08-2009, 08:11 AM
If one of Fraser, Brown or Wood start forward one would suggest this could eventuate, but if it doesn't then there isn't really another forward Welsh can go to. What happens then?

I'd be happy to start of Welsh as the spare man down back (they'll probably do the same with Maxwell), and see how that works. Welsh has shown he can read the play well down back, so it's not much of a gamble (we did this last week a fair bit as you know).

While Malthouse likes his structures he's developed a more flexible list where a variety of players can be switched around into the different positions. Presti is still the weak link in this IMO. We saw in their recent game V Brisbane that when Presti went down, the only player Malthouse was willing to send back onto Jon Brown was Leigh Brown. J Brown was completely dominating, but Malthouse didn't want to put someone else on him (like Harry O), presumably because he didn't want to lose his run. The Pies eventually clogged up the supply lines and space, but it was interesting to see how stubborn Malthouse was in sticking with a structure that for awhile looked like it would cost the game.

Mantis
28-08-2009, 08:16 AM
I'd be happy to start of Welsh as the spare man down back (they'll probably do the same with Maxwell), and see how that works. Welsh has shown he can read the play well down back, so it's not much of a gamble (we did this last week a fair bit as you know).



I think we need to make a Maxwell accountable to an opponent. Allowing him to play as a loose man would be playing into their hands.

The Coon Dog
28-08-2009, 08:22 AM
I think we need to make a Maxwell accountable to an opponent. Allowing him to play as a loose man would be playing into their hands.

Couldn't agree more Mantis, he thrives in that role of being 3rd man up & being unaccountable.

Raw Toast
28-08-2009, 08:38 AM
I think we need to make a Maxwell accountable to an opponent. Allowing him to play as a loose man would be playing into their hands.

Maxwell's been great in that role and he's having his best season, but I reckon at times we'll be willing to let him play free if we can destabilise their structure and set up something we think will work for us. One of the things Eade is best at IMO, is targetting an opposition strength and seeing if he can turn it into a weakness. And this can work a treat against Malthouse because he trusts his set-ups so much that he gets very stubborn about them and won't make the moves everyone else is screaming for.

Also, after getting smashed early against them last time, I'd be surprised if we don't start off with a spare man back to allow us to work into the game. We did it last week against Geelong for the first ten minutes, and then pulled the switch and went for them.

On a related side-note, one of the things I think we've been improving on during the season is to mix up our style of play more. Earlier in the year, and even in the second match against the Saints, we really struggled to play composed yet attacking footy. Our decision-making and composure against the cats was much better (as a rule) - we could chip the ball until we found a half-decent opening and then split them open, whereas before we tended to either go full-throttle all the time and force things too much, or get a defensive mindset and chip the ball around with little purpose.

LostDoggy
28-08-2009, 10:07 AM
Couldn't agree more Mantis, he thrives in that role of being 3rd man up & being unaccountable.

Agreed, Maxwell was the main reason why we were down by 6 goals at 3 quarter time.

Once we manned him up, we got back into the game. Whoever he plays on (i'm expecting Hahn) we need to make sure we use Hahn at every opportunity.

Cyberdoggie
28-08-2009, 01:58 PM
I think we need to make a Maxwell accountable to an opponent. Allowing him to play as a loose man would be playing into their hands.

He destroyed us last time around.
Our turnovers in the forward 50 were rebounded mostly by Maxwell and quickly ended up being a Collingwood goal. The lack of defensive pressure from the midfield didn't help with this either.

Will be interesting to see our tactics in this game as I think this will be a game where both sides will be trying a few things in preparation for a possible meeting in september.