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View Full Version : Game Preview Thread - Semi-final Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions



LostDoggy
09-09-2009, 08:53 AM
INTRO

The Dogs played Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood in the last three games of the H&A season, and now in the finals we’ve played Geelong, and will now play Brisbane – will we end up playing Collingwood in the Grand Final? Stranger things have happened. The last time we played Brisbane up at the Gabba a mere four-plus weeks ago, we won comfortably by 18 points, but the score-line masked a few scares in the last quarter when Brisbane came storming home, only to be stopped in their tracks by an inspired Jason Akermanis – who else – who kicked a stunning, trademark goal from the left pocket to effectively kill off the contest.

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WHY THIS MEANS SO MUCH TO US

Does anyone need reminding that the Dogs are a genuine premiership chance? For all the doom and gloom after last week’s loss to Geelong, win this game and Footscray are into their second preliminary final in a row, no mean feat in itself in a very even competition. However, success-starved fans are desperate for the Dogs to go at least one further and make the Grand Final, something that hasn’t happened since before bell-bottom flares and the Beatles. Man hadn’t even landed on the moon yet when the Dogs last made it to the big dance, the longest stint between drinks of any AFL club. Even poor old St. Kilda has made a Grannie as recently as 1997, and won their only premiership three-quarters of a decade after the Dogs won theirs. We truly are the embodiment of ‘long-suffering’, something Richmond fans only think they know.

A Grand Final appearance, followed by the lifting of the premiership cup, would be the catharsis to half a century of down-troddenness, and will send the strongest possible signal that the Western Bulldogs are announcing themselves as a force to reckon with in the 21st century, the previous hundred years be damned. Following a spanking new training and community facility, state-of-the-art training programmes, a forward thinking board, and one of the best lists we’ve had in a while, a premiership would be the perfect icing on the cake to top it all off.

A premiership would also awaken the sleeping giant that is Melbourne’s west. The fastest growing corridor in Australia bar none, the next generation of Western Bulldogs supporters lie dormant, confused by the lack of another club to follow but also bemused by the utter lack of success of their hometown club. A premiership would lay the ghosts of doubt to rest and mobilise the hundreds of thousands of new émigrés to rally behind the red, white and blue.

FALL-OUT OF A LOSS

On the flip side of the coin, a loss would be same old, same old – performing dismally in the finals despite coming in as THE form team of the competition wouldn’t be anything new to Dogs fans, unfortunately. It would surely mark the end of an era, with a raft of retirements possible, almost probable, if coach Rodney Eade decides on a mini end of season clearout. It would also be another string to the bow of those who claim that the multi-pronged small and medium sized forwardline of the Dogs, while heavy scorers in home-and-away games, does not and cannot stand up to general finals pressure, especially if Brown and Bradshaw kick a bagful this weekend.

Despite a loss, however, perhaps a silver lining can be sought – timing is a key to premierships, and it has been to the bad fortune of the Dogs that Hawthorn last year, then the Saints this year have found a spark to take them to the top of the ladder. The Dogs have been arguably the better performed side than either of those over the entirety of the last two years (the Saints finished fourth last year, Hawthorn ninth this year, while the Dogs have finished third both times). Other than Geelong, we have been the strongest side in the competition over the last two years, and this is nothing to sneeze at – there is no reason at all why we couldn’t be the side that finds the spark and takes the next step next season and become the dominant team, the way Hawthorn and St. Kilda did. After all, the core of the team will remain the same, and there is a raft of young, powerful talent coming into the team (Ward, Everitt, Reid, Wood, Stack, Boumann et al). For those who believe in premiership windows, ours isn’t shut yet. After all, didn’t everyone think St. Kilda’s finally shut two years ago?

PLAYERS WHO NEED TO STAND UP:

Adam Cooney – They don’t give out Brownlows to just anyone except Shane Woewoedin, and unless Coons wants to join that lonely band of one, he had better start getting on his bike. The last three games of the home-and-away season saw Coons start to gather some form and momentum, but like many of his team-mates on the weekend, he seemed to falter under the burden of expectation. Will he bounce back this week like the champion we all know and love, or will he flatter to deceive once again?

Will Minson – being big and angry is useless unless you can bring it. Will knows what I’m talking about. He wants to bring it. You can see it in his eyes, in his snarl, in his lumbering gait as he chases uselessly when a nimble-footed defender runs away from him. His heart is as big as Phar Lap’s, we just need his hands to be also.

Mitch Hahn – Mitch is the schoolyard bully who disappears when the real gangsters show up. However, there is this legendary story where a high school is under siege during World War II, and a bunch of Nazis are coming in to rape and pillage the nubile schoolgirls, and who should stand up and fight them off but the schoolyard bullies who had previously terrorised their own schoolmates. This is a story of courage overtaking cowardice, and the turning of destructive tendencies to constructive means. This story is also completely made-up-on-the-spot, but you know what I mean.

Daniel Giansiracusa – I don’t care if you look like Rob Lowe. I don’t care if women faint when you walk past them. I don’t care if your teammates think your ‘pits smell like flowers even after a half-marathon. I also don’t care if half your possessions result in goals, if your other half results in turnovers that lead to opposition goals. Besides, half of zero is still zero.

Ryan Griffen – look, there are around 10 million kids in Australia who play AFL. There are around 1 million of them who will actually be able to kick the ball. Only 10,000 of those will play at some representative level, be it primary school or whatever. Of those, maybe 5000 of them will get to play TAC at some point and have someone from an AFL club come look at them. Of those, maybe 1000 of them will have some hope of making it onto a list of some club at any level (VFL etc.) only 100 of them will have a real hope in hell of getting picked up by an AFL club. Only 16 of them will get a chance to be a ‘first-round draft pick’. Only three of them will be a ‘top three draft pick’. Of those three, all of them will be potential superstars, but they will all be hoping that they would be able to run like the wind, kick like a mule, jump like a horse, be as strong as Samson, and be as gifted as Ryan Griffen. The only person who doesn’t think Ryan Griffen is the most gifted player on any list in the AFL at the moment is Ryan Griffen. Play like it, FFS! (Note: all stats made up and hyperbole used liberally to make a point.)

Ryan Hargrave – it is a fact that a kick that goes up high and aimlessly in the air and comes down slowly and aimlessly is 100% more likely to be spoiled or marked by an opposing defender. It is also a fact that if you kick Ryan Hargrave high and aimlessly up in the air he is likely to come down slowly and be spoiled by an opposing defender.

MANTIS FACT:

Mantis believes that “in reality” we should pummel Brisbane and the 'crunch game' will be against St.Kilda. He also thinks that Nathan Eagleton is a .. good person .. and played reasonably well against Geelong.

Mantis
09-09-2009, 09:00 AM
ANALYSIS PART (courtesy of dog town)

I suppose games dont come much bigger than knock out finals. The lions were a little bit lucky last week but took there opportunities at the right times and in an arm wrestle final that is often all it takes. We have to be careful we dont forget that we actually have a game this week. I have won so many of these 2nd week finals over the years against more highly fancied teams because the other teams are already thinking about either avenging a loss from the previous week or on the next opponent they face to get in the big dance.

What they do well

The lions dont play a particularly complicated style of game. Most of there goals are generated in a very similar fashion. The ball gets turned over in the lions back half they then sweep it at pace through half back and kick (with a lot of penetration) over the middle part of the ground almost exclusively to one of Bradshaw or Brown on a hard lead up the middle. When they are not doing this they pose little or no threat from what I have seen.

They actually kick the ball really well. This is where they get dangerous. The midfield group in Black, Rich, Power, Rischitelli etc all use the ball really well. They tend to combine with McGrath, Drummond (if he plays) and Sherman to charge off half back through the corridor and kick over the space between the centre of the ground and there forward 50. They pretty rarely go short to a player in that space or wider than the centre square unless forced to.

The most obvious strength they have is the 2 big forwards they possess and 3 if you count Clark and Brennan pushing forward when they are not rucking. It is a strength and a weakness at times depending on how well the opposition defend. Contrary to what most people probably think they both get most of there touches and goals on the lead. Sure they are both dangerous one on one in the air but its the ability to push off and lead onto the good kicking of their midfielders that makes them so dangerous. This makes them really dangerous to us if we dont pressure the supply well enough. We would much prefer the ball coming in high. They really dont get much out of the other forwards they sit up forward so giving a chop out on the high balls will be easier than against some other teams.

So how do we beat them?

I think there are a number of areas where we will win this game.

Other than a couple of good ball carriers off half back they are generally pretty slow over the ground. This is particularly evident around the stoppages. For a team with a decent enough midfield and a few guys with big reputations they are really vulnerable coming out of the stoppages. They are pretty slow to get inside and dont defend very well out of them. I watched them on the weekend and they got cleaned up for first possessions and then couldn't go with the blues pacey guys when they spread from the contest. We will have a significant advantage here.

The plan has to be to get an advantage through our bigger bodied ruckmen then to get the ball outside quickly to our runners. Basically one or two guys in, win the footy then we are gone out into space. Guys like Black and Power are good players but they dont cover the ground really well even in close quarters. We can really make them feel the pinch here with guys like Cooney, Griffen etc getting it away quickly into space.

We really need to take the game on all over the ground and keep doing it for as long as we can. The only way the lions got back in it against the blues was later in quarters as the blues quicker guys stopped running or when the blues went a bit defensive. This allowed the lions better players to impose themselves on the game. I really think we can break them pretty easily if we commit ourselves to doing the hard running.

Given the strengths of the side that I have just pointed out it is clear that defending as a team (not just the backline) becomes extremely important. Our defensive work rate needs to be extremely high. Our forwards need to pressure there ball users off half back and push them to the outside of the ground. We just cant afford to let them use the ball through the corridor. It makes it virtually impossible for Morris and Lake to cover Bradshaw and Brown if they have there pick of the space they wish to lead into. Our midfielders also need to work there bums off to get into that space from center and back to help out our backline. The blues zone didnt protect the corridor very well at all so hopefully we can be better than them in that area.

Personally I would basically give them the outside of the ground if they want it. Let them use the width of the ground and allow us to get numbers back. They can only win if they get 8-12 goals out of Brown and Bradshaw and our best method of stopping that is by strangling their forward thrusts a bit. I expect Lake to let Brown push up the ground wide if thats what Brown wants to do. Lake will mainly only concern himself with the deeper entries. If the lions are allowed to come through the corridor then Brown can dictate where Lake goes and really expose him with those hard leads I talked about earlier. Obviously when I say give them the outside I dont mean gift it to them. I just think the corridor has to be the focus. We will have them for pace out wide anyway. If we can beat them down back then they will really struggle to stop our rebound.

The other area we can really get them is in our forward half IMO. I dont think they defend very well at all. Merrett goes ok especially in the air where he loves the big fist ala Michael and Leppitsch and his midfielders read it really well. Not only do they not cope well with pacy midfielders getting away into space but one on one down back they are just no good to be honest. Quick entries provided they are not sat on Merretts head will give us a huge chance of scoring heavily. I just dont think individually they can go with our forwards. We need to keep good separation and force them to defend individually. On the wide open spaces I think we can really expose them one on one. We may be well served to use a bit of a decoy on Merrett or even plonk Minson down there to draw him deep. The added bonus of our forwards taking them to task is it keeps the likes of McGrath and co accountable.

Match ups

Can be a bit pointless at times in the modern game given how much they swing around but I think some obvious ones exist.

Lake vs Brown

Should be pretty interesting to see how much latitiude Lake gives him. As I pointed out earlier much of it will depend on how the rest of the game evolves.

Morris vs Bradshaw

Such a crucial match up. I think Morris is our best bet to go with him but the lions will fancy him a chance to get hold of Morris. I dont see another realistic option.

Minson/Hudson vs Clark/Brennan

A few people have suggested the mobile ruckmen here but I think we are better off sticking with what we have and getting an advantage from our bigger bodies. We have the mobility around the ground to counter any advantage they have from there ruckmen. What the lions dont have is the ability to cover our bulk and size in this department so I would be hesitant to give up that advantage.

Rich/Black vs Picken

I would have Picken sit on one of these guys. Depth is not there strength so if you take out one of there best ball users you are well on your way. Rich would be my choice which is a big call for a first year player who doesnt get huge amounts of the ball.The fact is that too many of his touches result in scoring shots so I would be all over him. On top of that I would be looking to work Black over with an attacking player as he isnt the most accountable player and is carrying an injury. Drag him into areas he doesnt want to be.

Hargrave vs Hooper

Seems the most logical match up for Hargy. If I am honest I haven't seen a great deal of Hooper but watched him closely on saturday. He just didnt make himself dangerous until the last quarter when Brissy were completely dominant. Hargy plays well on his type and will work off him. If Brisbane push a ruckmen forward then he may be needed on a taller player in which case Harbrow could easily take Hooper.

Wildcards

For us I think Callan and Everitt are certainly a chance of coming in. Callan I think could really be important if he came in. With Lake likely to have to show a bit more respect for his opponent I think having a courageous guy like Callan who specialises in chopping off kicks could really be an asset. I wouldn't use Everitt in the mobile ruck role but rocket may well see this as the best fit.

Brisbane are a bit all over the place with selection at the moment so expect some changes. The use of Merrett up forward is a possibility. They did it a few weeks back and with no obvious match up dont be surprised if he is thrown forward. Having said that they certainly dont mind playing him on smaller types.

Summary (By me)

I game we should (and must) win. Last weeks fightback by Brisbane would have taken much out of a team that has really struggled to get it's better players at full fitness in the 2nd half year. No doubt the Lions have some quality players, but across the board we have much better depth. If we have an even spread of effort and performance from our team I think we should run out comfortable winners.

Dogs by 29pts

Go_Dogs
09-09-2009, 05:57 PM
Nice work guys.

For all the doom an gloom of last week, we played a fantastic side, who played pretty close too about as well as they could have, and we only lost by 14 points, and played some of our worst football for the season.

Big test this week, and a good practice run for the week after too, playing against a pair of big forwards.

Should be a tight contest, but one that we can break open if we are on our game.

ratsmac
09-09-2009, 06:50 PM
Good stuff fellas.

I really think that Simon Black is their engine room and he is the one we must exploit. When Brisbane came back last week Black was in everything.

I would like to see Ward go head to head with Rich simply for the specticle.

I worry about Morris on Bradshaw. Morris is more than capable but i felt last week that Mooney had too much space at crucial times of the game. It might have been from silly turnovers in the midfield, but thats what makes a good defender, not to get caught out.

If we defend as a whole team (St Kilda style) we can go all the way :D

dog town
09-09-2009, 08:43 PM
Good stuff fellas.

I really think that Simon Black is their engine room and he is the one we must exploit. When Brisbane came back last week Black was in everything.

It is not just his clearance work that is so good but his around the ground touches are highly underrated. He is brilliant by foot which some dont realise and his hands always put someone into space. The centre bounces are so full on now that he sometimes struggles to get involved before the balls gone but in general play he still reads it well enough to have an influence.

Sedat
10-09-2009, 01:38 PM
Fantastic preview guys.

Hargy is a good matchup for Hooper, but I think we might need his size to look after Clark and Brennan if/when they rest up forward. Harbrow looks a good matchup for Hooper.

If Tim Callan comes in this week, I'd like to see him spend some time as a defensive forward in the McQualter/Varcoe vein. Our half forward line was like a trampoline last Saturday and it exposed the defensive frailties of our collective forward group. Callan will make sure the likes of Drummond are not in acres of unopposed space running out of defensive 50.

bornadog
10-09-2009, 04:05 PM
I think these reviews put the expert media types to shame. Great analysis of the game, and what we need to do to win.

The players have to realize, the intensity must go up a few notches in finals. We need a good start and a big finish to clean this mob up.

dog town
11-09-2009, 12:36 PM
Just to further illustrate what I was saying about the lions weakness defending from stoppages I saw an interesting stat last night on foxtel. The scores from stoppages is something staggering like 238 to 27 points our way. We also lead them clearly in all other stoppage related stats. It is a fallacy that the lions are a good in close side. They are a side who kicks the ball well and has 2 big forwards, not much else going for them.

Mantis
11-09-2009, 02:30 PM
Just to further illustrate what I was saying about the lions weakness defending from stoppages I saw an interesting stat last night on foxtel. The scores from stoppages is something staggering like 238 to 27 points our way. We also lead them clearly in all other stoppage related stats. It is a fallacy that the lions are a good in close side. They are a side who kicks the ball well and has 2 big forwards, not much else going for them.

Besides Simon Black Brisbane do not have any real recognised clearance winners, if we keep him away from the ball and pressuirise him when he gets it we should nullify his impact. Our mid's should be stung by a relative poor performance last week and should really set the tone tonight.

Topdog
11-09-2009, 02:42 PM
Just to further illustrate what I was saying about the lions weakness defending from stoppages I saw an interesting stat last night on foxtel. The scores from stoppages is something staggering like 238 to 27 points our way. We also lead them clearly in all other stoppage related stats. It is a fallacy that the lions are a good in close side. They are a side who kicks the ball well and has 2 big forwards, not much else going for them.

I believe clearances were Dogs +100, Brisbane -96 for the year.

Always enjoy watching AFL teams

bulldogsman
11-09-2009, 02:49 PM
http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/84578/default.aspx

Not a bad analysis here from Peter Berbakov assistant coach of Sydney. Apart from the Lake/Morris matchup i thought it was quite good.

You guys do a much better job though.

LostDoggy
11-09-2009, 04:52 PM
Great preview Lantern - I hope the boys read this, especially those you mention by name. I couldn't agree more with what you said about all of them............... I just want to believe that we can do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!