Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda - Preliminary Final Preview

[comrade]

INTRODUCTION

We lost to the Cats, we beat the Lions .

Now we face 2009’s juggernaut, St Kilda.

Last time we played, we were outclassed in the first half but refused to lie down despite losing two of our most important players just after half time (Murphy and Higgins). In the third quarter we played ugly, turning the game into a scrap in an attempt to halt the Saints’ momentum.

3 goals down at 3 qtr time gave us a sniff – enter Scott Welsh.

The biggest brain snap involving the Bulldogs since the decision to appoint Peter Rhode as senior coach gave St Kilda the lift they needed. Combine this with our reduced rotations and we were run off our legs.

This time, we’re fit (in general) and confident.

This time we’re ready. I hope.


EXPECTATION VS BLIND HOPE

Last year we made a preliminary final, but a feeling of hope, rather than genuine expectation seemed to permeate the Bulldogs fan base (and playing group, most likely)

To quote Raw Toast:


Last year was full of hope whereas this year there's a bit more expectation. Not that I have us as favourites, but I reckon we're in better physical shape than last year, we're fitter than the Saints, the Saints come in under enormous pressure, and we showed last year that we can exploit their lack of pace through the middle.


WELCOME TO FOOTBALL PURGATORY: THE BULLDOGS & PRELIMINARY FINALS

1985. 1992. 1997. 1998. 2008.

All good Bulldog teams that were unable to get over the preliminary final hurdle.

Why have we constantly suffered from footballing stage fright?

The stigma of being the battler, the downtrodden, financially stricken Bulldogs has been hard to shake - success and the Bulldogs are not familiar friends.

When we get to the pressure cooker of a prelim, 2 hours away from reaching that most wonderful of days, we’ve forgotten how to win.

Last year we had the Cats. Absolutely had them cold, but refused to take our chances.

25 years of failure has defined our history of being good, but not quite good enough.

Well, guess what.

STUFF HISTORY!

Ja-iCrwpH0E


WHAT A WIN WILL MEAN

Our last Grand Final appearance was in 1961.

As MAD Magazine pointed out on its cover for the March 1961 issue, this was the first "upside-up" year—i.e., one in which the numerals that form the year look the same as when the numerals are rotated upside down—since 1881, and the last until 6009.

Here’s a few things that happened in that glorious year:

* The farthing, used since the 13th century, ceases to be legal tender in the United Kingdom.
* Beatles perform for their first time at the Cavern Club.
* Fidel Castro announces that the Bay of Pigs invasion has been defeated.
* Construction of the Berlin Wall begins, restricting movement between East Berlin and West Berlin and forming a clear boundary between West Germany and East Germany, Western Europe and Eastern Europe.
* "Barbie" gets a boyfriend when the "Ken" doll is introduced.

A win would mean we have climbed the preliminary final hurdle that has haunted us for 25 years, and launched ourselves on the big stage.

http://i675.photobucket.com/albums/vv120/brettmexico/dogjumping.jpg

It gives us an opportunity to experience an occasion only dreamed about by those born after 1961, and gives us real hope (and expectation) of seeing Brad Johnson raise that beautiful premiership cup in front of thousands of Bulldog fans.

A win will validate those that fought to keep the club alive 20 years ago.

A win would be good.


ROLLING THE DICE: SELECTION DILEMMA’S

The major selection issue revolves around our back line, and in particular, how are we going to curb the influence of Nick Riewoldt.

If Tom Williams doesn’t play, it’ll mean Morris gets the job on Roo. It’s not a bad match up in theory, but Morris has been down on form (still bloody solid though) recently and was led to the ball a number of times in the first half against Brisbane.

Williams gives us more flexibility down back and allows Morris to shut down one of the other dangerous small/mid sized forwards.

If we do bring in Tommy, either Welsh or Callan are in the gun.

Welsh has done a passable job as a swingman in recent weeks, but is this job beyond him against such a gun team? If he does play, I hope he spends some decent time up forward because goals will be hard to come by and we’ll need as many options as possible.

Callan was solid against Brisbane, but still looks a step behind the required pace which will only be exacerbated against the relentless Saints. What he lacks in pace and feel though, he makes up by being harder than a cat’s head which is a valuable attribute in finals.

It’s a difficult decision, and one that has already created plenty of debate.

Personally, I’d be looking at Callan making way for Tom, meaning we have Morris, Gilbee, Shaggy and Harbrow to take the small-mid sized forwards.

The only other concern might be Griffen, but I think we’re all confident he’ll come up.


RISE TO THE OCCASION: PLAYERS UNDER THE PUMP

There were a number of guys who were under the pump prior to last week’s game. Thankfully, they stood up and were instrumental in our win.

Mitch Hahn and Nathan Eagleton

If these two are able to have very good games, we’ll go a long way to getting over the line. Too many times have they bashed up average teams, only to be found wanting when the heat gets turned up.

Mitch has to chase, tackle, harass and be dangerous in the forward line. The Bulldozer needs to roar to life, ready to plow some St Kilda soil.

If Gram, Goddard and Gilbert are just allowed to skip merrily away while Mitch looks on forlornly, I’ll tear my hair out.

Nathan. Oh, sweet little Nathan. We’ve seen the best and worst of him this year – long goals, searing runs and penetrative passes vs short steps, feeble spoiling attempts and missed tackles.

Nathan has to not only bring the work rate of the past month, but he has to get in low, put his body in dangerous positions and inspire his teammates on the big stage.

I want to see him contest in the air and tackle hard.

I want to see him kick the crucial goal, under pressure.

Eagle has a chance to gain the respect of all supporters, and go down as a genuine Bulldog champion with a standout performance this week. Is he up to it?
-------------------------------------------------

We’ll go in as underdogs, but that’s the Footscray way.

Let’s jus hope that when the siren sounds, the underdog has had its day.

[Mantis]

Backline tactical battle: (By Mantis)

When we take a deep look at the forward structure we see a forward-line that is reliant on just one man, Sir Nick. Riewoldt has had a fantastic season, but there is an un-natural reliance on him to be the ‘man’. His work ethic is the best of any forward in the game at present, perhaps even ever so there will probably be a need to rotate our players onto him. Kosi will also be handful having kicked 47 goals this season, but has kicked just 6 goals in 4 games against the top 4 teams. His ability to take a big grab can be daunting, but I think he is a little over-rated. The small forwards of Milne, Schneider & McQualter have combined for 98 goals this year, but have all increased their efforts to apply offensive pressure which has led to them totaling 263 tackles which is a fantastic result.

St.Kilda are more than happy to play with just a 5 man forward line which allows them to drop an attacking player behind the ball to help with their zone, but also creates space for their forwards to work into, specifically Riewoldt. His ability to lead into open space is second to none and our defenders and mids are going to have to work their butts off to help block up the space.

Our defenders will also be have to keep a keen eye out for Gram, Goddard and Dal Santo who like to push forward and are dangerous with the ball in their hands. We mustn’t allow Gram & Goddard to take uncontested marks in and around the 50m line due to their ability to kick long goals.

I feel we may use Welsh as our spare man (if we go that way) as he reads the ball well and is strong and courageous in the air. He will have a big task to be able to plug the gaps so hopefully he is up to the task.

Another important part of our defensive group will be our ability to bring the ball back into play after a behind. 2 or 3 years ago we were just about the best in the business, but teams have cottoned onto us and with Gilbee spending more time up the field there will be great pressure on Hargrave & Harbrow to get it right.


Defensive match-ups:

Morris v Riewoldt – For me this is the crucial match-up on the ground. Riewoldt is comfortably St.Kilda’s most valuable and important player and we need to somehow find a way to quell his performance. In our 2 games this year Rooey has had 36 disposals, 22 marks and kicked 9 goals and been almost unstoppable. Morris has been down on form a little over the past 6 or so weeks so hopefully he has a big performance in him. I have no doubt Morris will not be the only opponent for Riewoldt and think both Lake & Hargrave will be asked to help Morris out from time to time.

Lake v Koschitzke – There is no denying that I don’t rate Kosi, but he does have the ‘potential’ to be a game-breaker with his ability to take a contested grab. Lake has proven himself to genuine bona fide gun defender over the past 2 or 3 years. I think he can successfully cover Kosi, but I am worried that Brian will get a little side-tracked (crazy notion hay!) trying to help out Morris that he will get stuck more often than not between a rock and a hard place. We need Brian to have a big one.

Hargrave v Milne – Big job for Shaggy, but I think he is the perfect match-up for the little ‘tip rat’ Milne. Ryan has done the job in the past and I think he can do it again. Milney put Harbs to the sword last time and I think Ryan is better equipped to take Milne out of the game.

Callan v Schneider – Backing Tim in to do the job on Schneider here in a purely defensive role. Schneider has been very good at applying defensive pressure this year so I am hoping that Tim will be able to help lay blocks for our defensive runners. Tim will need to be extra careful of when he wants to create a ‘3rd man up’ as Schneider is the type of player who will kill us if he is left unopposed at the fall of the ball.

Harbrow v McQualter – I think this is a match-up that St.Kilda will try and implement as McQualter will be asked to play as a ‘defensive forward’ on the ever improving & creative Harbrow. While McQualter’s main role is to create forward pressure, as evidenced by him averaging 4.5 tackles per game, he is also a fairly creative forward as he averages almost 1 goal per game & leads the Saints for goal assists. Harbrow will no doubt be required to create some run & carry from the back half, but he also must be very mindful of his role as defender.

[Mantis]

Midfield tactical battle: (By Sedat)

As we all know, St Kilda places a maniacal pressure on the opposition ball carriers, and have shown themselves to be a very disciplined team when it comes to maintaining their on-field structure (which allows them to control the tempo of the game more often than not). It is the work when they don’t have the ball which sets them apart from the rest of the competition in season 2009. Their primary modus operandi is the implementation of a very heavy zone/press (used high up the field) which restricts delivery options for the opposition and pins them to the defensive side of the centre (the St Kilda v Adelaide game earlier this year was a classic example, when they restricted Adelaide to 24 measly possessions forward of the centre for two entire quarters of football – no wonder the likes of Dawson and Blake are hardly ever exposed one-out in defensive 50). It also makes the opposition spot up risky targets by hand and foot to try and penetrate the zone, which invariably leads to a high goals from turnover rate (an area that killed us the last time we played them in Round 17, when 11 of their first 12 goals were a direct result of Bulldog turnovers by hand and foot). The hard zone/press is implemented for 10-15 minute bursts (it is impossible to sustain it for an entire match), and has the effect of keeping the ball away from the opposition scoring areas for large parts of the game. End result, inside 50’s conceded of 30-35 a match and a very comfortable win 9 times out of 10.

How to break down this structure is to first ensure that we win the clearance and contested possession battle, easier said than done. They have two old-school traditional ruck exponents in Gardiner and King, who by virtue of their size and experience, more often than not either break even or win the hitouts. From there they have a major reliance on Hayes to win the clearance and feed it out to their talented band of runners (led by Montagna and Dal Santo). In my opinion, Hayes is the 2nd most critical player in St Kilda’s structure, as his fearless attack on the ball, as well as his fantastic hands and vision in traffic, bring the rest of the St Kilda running brigade into the play (and subsequently their forward line). He almost single-handedly altered the course of the QF against Collingwood with his clearance winning ability in the 2nd qtr, and they were up and away as a result.

St Kilda is also very good when they have the ball. They are very good at finding space through the centre corridor for the likes of Gram, Ray and Goddard (when he drifts into the middle) to then clear the opposition defensive zone by foot and find space for Reiwoldt to lead into. This band of running midfielders allow St Kilda to generate more metres gained than any other midfield group in the competition, so it is absolutely imperative that our midfield group can hustle and pressure St Kilda’s midfielders runners into rushed and haphazard delivery – we now have quite a strong band of contested ball winning midfielders ourselves that have the ability to pressure St Kilda’s mids for 120 minutes. It’s a pretty simple equation – if we allow St Kilda’s midfield to spread clear of the congestion and give them too much clean delivery into forward 50, we cannot win the game.

When we have the ball and win the stoppages, we have to be clean with our skills by hand and foot, and be smart when delivering it into our forward 50. Bombing it to the hot spot is death against this mob – Goddard, Fisher, Gilbert and co will pick this off all night. What they also do though is run free of their opponents en masse to get to the expected drop of the ball – this is where our midfield and defensive rebounders need to be composed and smart in raising the eyes and spotting up the free targets inside 50, and there will be free targets with the way St Kilda zone off in defence. We were really poor in this area in Round 17.

Hudson and Minson will have to step up and play the role of defensive mids once the ruck contest has been completed – this is a great strength of Hudson and acts as an extra midfielder in at the stoppage. The likes of Ward, Picken, Boyd and Cross will have to block and clear a path for Cooney (especially) and Griffen to take control of the ball at the stoppage and deliver with pace and precision into forward 50. Where possible, our mids need to give Jones a fearsome working over physically, as they don’t really have another hard tag option to take Cooney. Jones is also a very good clearance winner in his own right, so I would also move Cooney into forward 50 on occasions so that it takes away one of Hayes’ great foot soldiers away from the heat of the kitchen.

Interesting to note that we have generated 45-50 inside 50’s in both previous matches against the Saints (well up on St Kilda’s weekly average conceded), but our static ball movement (in Round 6) and our midfield turnovers and poor delivery into forward 50 (in Round 17) killed us. I have no doubt that we can generate a similar amount of scoring opportunities on Friday night, and that we can address the fundamental structural weaknesses in our game style the previous two occasions. If that happens we are in this match up to our eyeballs.

Midfield match-ups:

King/Gardiner v Hudson/Minson
Our boys need to break even and work their arse off in keeping the ball from breaking free for the Saints. Gardiner also drifts forward quite effectively, something which we need to be very mindful of. I’m confident our ruck division can match it with St Kilda’s to nullify their clearance winning ability and also generate some clearances ourselves.

Hayes v Cross
Cross is the perfect match-up for Hayes. He can win the ball himself, has a similar turn of speed, matches his endurance and running capacity, and is courageous to a fault. Massively important head-to-head battle that, if we can win/nullify Hayes, will go a long way towards us winning the match.

Gram v Eagleton
The battle of the run and carriers. Both are in good form for their respective clubs, with Eagle putting in a superb display of hard running and finishing against Brisbane last week. However, he needs to be very mindful of Gram’s ability to find space and clear the zone by foot – we need to limit Gram’s inside 50’s dramatically this week, so Eagle will have to do some strong defensive running himself this week.

Jones v Cooney
Our most explosive midfield weapon is in great form, but so is their premier clamp-down tagger. We need to block and clear a path for Cooney where possible and try to hurt Jones physically with punishing tackles and blocks. I rate Jones’ ability to win the ball in traffic himself, so I would also have Cooney play deep forward on occasions to take Jones away from the clearance battle and take him well out of his comfort zone – Cooney has plenty of tricks as a smart lead-up forward when needed and will have too much toe for Jones if isolated in any space.

Dal Santo v Ward
Ward looks a good match-up for Dal. He has defensive capability and can win his own ball in tight as well. In recent weeks he has also been terrific at finding space and hurting the opposition going forward, something that Dal will allow more so than the other St Kilda mids. However, Ward needs to be switched on defensively and work very hard in close to deny Dal time and space with the ball – he is one of the best midfield decision makers and exponents of clean delivery in the AFL.

Montagna v Picken
Montagna has plateued slightly in the last few weeks, but is still one of the premier line-breaking midfielder in the competition this season. Picken is an ideal match-up as he has the running capacity, the tank and the concentration and application to go with him. He doesn’t lack much for pace off the mark against Montagna either.

Ray v Griffen
If Griffen plays wide (half back/wing), I can see Ray taking him. Griffen showed how important his run and carry is last week, and provided he is fully recovered from his calf injury, should be able to find space some this week – if Jones puts the clamps on Coons, Griffen becomes a vitally important player for us. Ray definitely needs some defensive work – he is strong aerially and has been smart at going 3rd man up in the contests, an area he has an advantage over Griffen. He also runs all day and provides an important link between defence and attack for the Saints.

Ball v Boyd
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Ball used in a Cross-type defensive run-with role on Boyd. If this happens, Boyd can wear him down him his superior running capacity as the match wears on. Ball is a courageous battering ram but he simply cannot get from contest to contest as much as Lyon would like, hence why he has been in and out of the team in recent weeks. He did play reasonably well against Collingwood so I think he will stay in the team this week. Boyd needs a significant finals performance to reaffirm the belief that he is now one of the elite midfielders of the competition, and Friday night will be no better stage for him to do so.

[Mantis]

Forward-line tactical battle: (By Mantis)

How the hell do we kick a winning score? That will be the question that is facing the match committee this week and frankly I am finding it hard to find a way to which we can. So far this year we have scored just 11 & 9 goals in our 2 games against a St.Kilda team that gave up an average of just 64 points per game this year. So what do we do differently this time?

For one thing we need to use the ball better – Our ability to hit a target in our last 2 games against the Saints was pretty poor so we must use the ball better under pressure on Friday night. We must also find a way to separate the St.Kilda defence as for much of the year they have worked together like a well oiled machine, but it can be done.

We have the highest scoring team in the competition and all without a recognized ‘power forward’ and while it would be great to have one, we have found a way to get by. To beat a St.Kilda team without a viable tall option we will need to forwards to play out of their skins, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.

St.Kilda love to play with an extra defender such as Goddard or Fisher who they use as their distributor. We can argue and discuss this to the cows come home and try and work out ways to stop them, but I still think the Saints will find a way to free-up one of their defenders. We will require our forwards to continue to present such that the Saints defenders can’t group together because this when they are at their most dangerous.

The Saints also spread the ball extremely well to this free player/s. It is becoming the norm to see players such as Fisher, Gilbert, Blake and Goddard rack up big numbers and I am a little inclined to allow them to, but only if they spread the ball laterally. I think we will waste too much energy by chasing the Saints across the ground, especially considering we have a fairly old forward-line, but I do want us to stop the Saints from providing quick ball up the field to their forwards (forward)

How our forwards go will really be a by-product of the sort of delivery our midfield can supply, but the forwards will really need to help each other by applying blocks to release the leading player and by do a lot of un-selfish running. Our forwards are going to have to continue to lead to draw their opponents away from each other to hopefully free up some space for their team-mates behind. We may see some of the best 5 possession games of our forwards lives if they are able to work their butts off for each other.

We have enough class in our forward-line to cause the Saints some problems so hopefully we see some mercurial performances from the likes of Higgins, Aker and Johnson.

We must also take our chances when they present. The only pressure worth talking about in finals is scoreboard pressure and once you have the score on the board you are able to dictate the way the game is played. In a game which I think will be fairly low scoring me must take our chances.

Forward match-up’s:

With our forward-line changing almost every second minute we will probably see at least 15 of our players rotating through our forward half on Friday night so it makes it pretty hard to work out what match-ups we might see for more than 5 minutes at a time, but here goes:

Johnson v Gilbert – Gilbert, as well as being a fine rebounder is a fine defender and will probably get the job on Johnno. Johnno’s record in finals isn’t that great so he will be hoping to lead his side from the front this week. This could quite possibly be Johnno’s last chance at ultimate glory so let’s hope Brad can pull out a vintage performance.

Akermanis v Baker – Aker will be a key with his deadly finishing and will no doubt attract the Saints tight checking tagger come small defender. Baker will play close, but Aker has enough ‘footy smarts’ to be a dangerous player.

Hahn v Blake – We will need Mitch to have a real impact in this game if we are a chance. His form has been up and down this year, but he is the type of player that can lift for this game. His ability to compete on the ground and apply the big hits will be crucial to our chances.

Higgins v Goddard – Much like the PF last year against Geelong I would like to see Higgins go to the opposition’s best rebounder and try to exploit the amount of space he gives to his opponent. Higgins has been a little quiet since his return to the team so I am sure he will want to have a big impact this week.

Murphy v Fisher – A clearly underdone Murphy hasn’t been at his best over the past month, but hopefully he has a big one left in his fragile body. His running ability seems to be fine, but his kicking looks to seriously effected by his shoddy knee. If he is forced to kick long I hope he kicks away from the ‘hot spot’ which will be heavily guarded and more towards the pockets as this is an area where we might be able to force a clearance situation.

Why we will win (By Mantis)

Put simply, because we have to.

No doubt it is going to be tough, but we have this win in us. It will require the 22 players that pull on the Bulldogs jumper to all being committed to the cause. We will have to go to war on Friday night, as the Saints will not give us free ticket to the Grand final.

I will be looking for Cooney & Griffen to be our sparks. I look back to our game with the Saints back at the start of the ’08 season and can vividly remember these 2 putting the Saints to be sword. These 2 are our game-breakers and I am hoping that each of them can play they game of their lives, but they will need help.

We will need our players (all of them) to play at their best (or damn close to it), we will have to fight and scrap for the contested ball, stick our tackles, punch from behind, run hard to create an option, run hard to fill a hole, stand in front of a pack and get crunched and kick the crucial goal when it’s required.

We will have to do all the things that good teams do, but we can, because we are a good team. I know our players are up for the challenge of their lives and I am quietly confident they will produce on the night.

Dogs by 13pts

[dog town]

Great work guys.

I think one of the simplest but possibly most important things for this week is that we take our chances. Finals are so often such low scoring, tight affairs that hitting a target or nailing a difficult shot at the right time could well be the difference. It is quite possible that if the rest of our team fires then 12-14 goals may be enough. It is easier said than done against the defensively minded saints but it also shows you just how gettable this win is. If one of our forwards has a big day or if we find a little chink where we can spot a few guys up we are half way there. That is the beauty of knock out footy just ask Stuey Dew and Hawthorn.

If Aker, Higgins and co have their kicking boots on it puts scoreboard pressure all over the saints. We cant afford simple skill errors that cost us a goal or a shot at goal. Last week Ryan Grffen surged through half forward under no pressure and had a 15 meter pass to complete. He proceeded with that horrible, lazy ball drop of his and put it out of bounds. We just cant afford to do that this week. We need to take every opportunity.I was even a little annoyed to see us sharing the ball so much around the edge of the 50 last week. If you have the ball in range, take responsibility and kick the goal. Nothing halts or changes momentum like a turnover from a goal scoring position.

For me kicking a winning score and restricting the saints sort of go hand in hand. They get most of their goals by turning the opposition over as they bring the ball forward. If we are working through that area of the ground then I expect them to get less easy goals. I think the wide open spaces at the MCG give us a better chance of moving the ball quickly through here than if we were at Ethihad. The saints will work as hard as they always do so it wont be easy. We just need to work our bums off to provide options. With the amount of space available if we work hard to run into space it is going to drag the saints zone around and create running lanes for our players. We have to believe we can cut through it and see it as a challenge. If we are hesitant and wait for someone else to find a way through we have no hope.

The big problem we face is how to not only get through the heavy pressing zone that the saints use as Sedat mentioned but how to do it and still have a functional forward line once we get through it. Eade is often pretty clever with his use of space and will throw things around, push guys up the field, drag them back and all those sorts of things. I cant wait to see what we throw at them. Just judging from past games our forwards are going to be out numbered at times. We need to hold them up as much as possible when this happens. Every lock in, forced throw in, turnover etc gives us another chance at getting those 12-14 goals we need to have a chance.

Not sure what they will do with Reiwoldt. I think a few guys will rotate on him and depending on the style of game they may even let Lake take him inside 50 and allow others to worry about him any further up the ground. It is really hard to say until you see how the game works out.

The last thing I will say is the longer we are in the game or even in front the more nervous they will get. We have to make sure that when the chance presents itself we grab it and do not get nervous ourselves.

[LostDoggy]

Excellent summary

Couldn't find a mention of Gia. I think he will be one of our trump cards in the forward line. Any opponent who cares to give him space and lack of attention will be cut up as this is Gia's forte.

Over the years I have seen him make a mess of the likes of Wirrappanda when given space. The beauty of Gia is his propensity to create a goal by finding a team-mate in a better position to score

I believe it is also important for the forward line to retain it's structure at least in some shape or form. When there is a need to move numbers into our back half to restrict the opposition's forward movement we need to retain some players forward of the ball to provide an option when our blokes break free from the back-line. Collingwood did this beautifully against the Morons last week when their players were able to kick over the top to one or two of their team-mates who then had a clear pasage to goal.

Most importantly we can't allow the situation where we just bomb aimlesly to a posse of Saints while our forwards find themselves out of postion.

Above all else, I believe their achilles heal is their lack of pace out of the middle. Montagna is the only one who can run and as mentioned in the summary, Picken is the man to restrict him.

[dog town]

Couldn't find a mention of Gia. I think he will be one of our trump cards in the forward line. Any opponent who cares to give him space and lack of attention will be cut up as this is Gia's forte.

Could possibly get a defensive job on Goddard I think. I think Eade will be keen to give him a bit of responsibility given his standing as a leader.

[Mantis]

Could possibly get a defensive job on Goddard I think. I think Eade will be keen to give him a bit of responsibility given his standing as a leader.

The 2 concerns for the Saints could be Higgins & Gia. When you look through their backline they are pretty tall and from the match-ups I gave you still have to find someone for regulars Blake & Dawson. Minson and Welsh will spend some time in the forwardline so when they are there they look like good match-ups for these 2, but when they are elsewhere it throws up some possible mis-matches.

Our forwards must get on their bikes as I see constant movement as one area where we could exploit the St.Kilda defence.

Gia's ball use will be important as we really missed his ability to spot up a leading target in our rd 17 clash.

[Hot_Doggies]

I wouldn't be against Gilbee or Hargrave playing forward on Goddard or Fischer. Both players are disciplined defensively and creative going forward.

[dog town]

The 2 concerns for the Saints could be Higgins & Gia. When you look through their backline they are pretty tall and from the match-ups I gave you still have to find someone for regulars Blake & Dawson. Minson and Welsh will spend some time in the forwardline so when they are there they look like good match-ups for these 2, but when they are elsewhere it throws up some possible mis-matches.

Our forwards must get on their bikes as I see constant movement as one area where we could exploit the St.Kilda defence.

Gia's ball use will be important as we really missed his ability to spot up a leading target in our rd 17 clash. Yeah they are pretty big down there, I agree. I think we will definitely have something planned to either limit Goddard or hurt him on the scoreboard. Gia has been good in the past at getting into dangerous positions against these types. Eade's experience in the box is going to be crucial. If he can engineer a few goals from mismatches etc it will be a huge help.

[LostDoggy]

Great preview, as stated, there will be many factors, players performance and match ups that are key to us getting this one.

For me Mitch Hahn will be one of the most important players on the night. If he can keep the ball in our forward line and kick a few himself we will be in a good position.

I also hope that Rocket will pull something special and significant out after half time, something freaky like sending Minson to St Nick on a damage plan or something equally as perplexing but at the end of the day whatever it is works out to be genius.

[Bulldog Revolution]

Excellent work, very interesting preview guys, definitely gets the heart pumping just thinking about it

I thought Gilbert might be the preferred matchup for Murphy

And that Fisher might be the man for Johnson

What do you think?

Also Ward on Dalsanto - it is a huge job for Ward - I've been wondering if Boyd will be given the job here, given the Cross/Hayes, Picken/Montagna matchups

[boydogs]

Run, Doggy, Run!
They are too tall the Saints - they have great marking forwards, great structure, great in the air etc etc., but they hide their lack of pace by slowing the game down and locking teams in. They give big efforts in key periods of the game but if they are moved around they will not be able to sustain this.

The weapons we have on our bench in Gia, Eagle and Ward will give us great run to see the game out. The work ethic of Boyd, Cross and Picken will be key in the midfield to outlast them, our young legs and the explosive Cooney and Griffen will be the difference. As soon our mids get space and can make a controlled delivery to our forwards, our mobile forward line will show them up. Go Dogs!

[bornadog]

Fanatastic read in this thread, well done boys.


We cannot fall into the trap of slowing the game down and trying to pass the ball around to find someone in a better position, we must move the ball fast but accurately and break through the zones.

Being at the MCG with wider flanks is going to make it harder for the Saints to stop our run and carry. We need to move the ball into the forward line wuickly and kick to a man leading or try and kick over the backman, like we did against Geelong in round 21 or Brisbane last week.

Agree that Cooney must be protected from the tagger. Stoppages are crucial and we need to keep the intensity up for the full four quarters.

[LostDoggy]

Great work guys.

I think one of the simplest but possibly most important things for this week is that we take our chances.

I couldnt agree more. We had chances against Geelong last year and a few weeks ago and didnt nail them. Finals footy is all about taking your chances that you are willing to work hard enough to get.

Im pumped for Friday night.

[neodog]

The defensive Saints will find the open spaces of the MCG much harder to guard. Eagleton, gilbee, gia will find space and time to spot up passes.

The number 1 reasons we will beat the saints is also something we have learnt from playing and losing to them is the propensity of the Bulldogs to bomb long and quickly (except Welsh last week who is still learning to not to do this) into the F50 and hope. I have noticed a subtle change in our game when going forward, as we are no longer letting opposition scoring easy goal from EASY F50 turn over. We will force a 50/50 contest or go wide if need be and catch them off guard outside 50 for one of our good finisher to take a ping.

Our midget forward line does not hold well against the long bomb, they are more suited to the quick chip pass and opportunistic goal. When there is no space/options, we will hold the ball up and wait for a big men to compete in the contest or kick it toward the boundaries.

[neodog]

Fanatastic read in this thread, well done boys.


We cannot fall into the trap of slowing the game down and trying to pass the ball around to find someone in a better position, we must move the ball fast but accurately and break through the zones.

Being at the MCG with wider flanks is going to make it harder for the Saints to stop our run and carry. We need to move the ball into the forward line wuickly and kick to a man leading or try and kick over the backman, like we did against Geelong in round 21 or Brisbane last week.

Agree that Cooney must be protected from the tagger. Stoppages are crucial and we need to keep the intensity up for the full four quarters.

I agree with this, but we must not bomb it long when we can't move it fast and cleanly, like a quick clearance contested ball outside F50. i rather we either spot a target or kick it wide to a leading player. The hotspot are heavily guarded by tall saints defenders. If they take a mark from this area and peel off, Reiwolt and Kosi is definitely a chance for a mark/goal.

[Raw Toast]

Great preview and follow-up posts.

Don't mind us allowing one of their defenders loose as long as it is the right one (or ones) - much prefer Dawson or Blake with the ball in their hands compared to any of the G's (Goddard, Gram or Gilbert).

I agree with Ward on Dal Santo, and agree that the MCG will hopefully make it easier for us to break through their zone.

We set up last week with clear instructions to get the ball to Gia around half-forward and to have him kick into the 50. I'm sure they'll have a plan to combat this, but still think this structure will work to our advantage. Won't be surprised to see Baker go to Gia.

I think we'll try and isolate Aker and also Higgins out of the square a bit. It means we will be very small up forward at times, but both are clever enough to cut the Saints up if we can give them the space to move in.

Eagle really is a key (and yes I am surprised to be saying this). He showed last week that he can do the contested work and desperate pressure, while still being very damaging with his forward running.

Our fitness advantage is another big factor for mine, but I want us to play attacking footy from the start (without being silly about it), rather than try and just nullify them for the first three or so quarters.

We've shown over the last third of the season that we can play in an aggressive, composed fashion, sharing the ball by hand and foot until we create the space to put our footy down and break the game open. The beauty of this game for mine (and I might be overly optimistic here), is that if we put it all together on Friday night, I think we'll win (partly because of our ability to run out the game better).

Finally, I don't mind bringing in Williams for Callan (for a bit more height and some precision by foot), but I'll be disappointed if he comes in for Welsh. I think Welsh's reading of the play down back has been really important, and gives Eade the kind of flexibility that he's very good at taking advantage of.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Very good preview.

St. Kilda weren't particularly impressive against Collingwood in the QF for mine. I thought they looked very shakey until Hayes and namely Riewoldt kicked into gear. Until that stage, Collingwood were all over them but couldn't put enough space between them on the scoreboard. It'll be interesting to see if the Saints struggle on the G' again. They took a long time to adjust v Melbourne as well.

I would think we're a 3-4 goal better side than Collingwood. We spread from the contest better and we finish off games better. Both of these issues are going to be vital for this Preliminary Final because you can be certain that St. Kilda are aware of our ability to cut sides up in the last quarter. They'll be desperately trying to put the game away by three quarter time and if they don't, they'll be worried.

Pressure around the ball carrier is most important. Against the Saints both times earlier in the year (And Carlton every year), we allow them to spread from the contest far too easily. We can't afford to see Hayes winning the ball in close, handballing to Dal Santo, who then chips it sideways to a loose and streaming Goddard/Gram/Gilbert. The pressure that we are able to apply around the clearances and stoppages will arguably be the deciding factor. If given time and space, they'll put us to the sword - particularly with Riewoldt up forward. You know they'll try to strangle us and pressure us to breaking point - we simply have to match it to get them out of their comfort zone.

The open spaces of the MCG are going to suit us if we play to our ability. As others have made mention, it's going to be much more tiring and difficult for St. Kilda to strangle us for the entire game. If we're prepared to work hard then I really think we can run the Saints into the ground - especially in the last. The players have got to know and believe in this. Melbourne/Collingwood had St. Kilda looking pretty ordinary at times but they weren't able to sustain it. Collingwood's work rate dropped off and as the game wore on they played into the defensive hands of Lyon.

We'll be their hardest possible test yet - if we're 'on'.

[Swoop]

Our decision making and skill execution going forward will be critical to our success on Friday night. While a lot has been made of St Kilda's defense, majority of the credit can be attributed to their midfield zone/press. If our forwards are disciplined and able to isolate their matchups one on one than I do believe they appear vulnerable.

At different times Goddard, Fisher & Gilbert all like to zone off their man and look to become a 3rd man up in the contest, I encourage our players to play through their opponents, specifically those 3. We need to learn from Higgins against Milburn in the Prelim last year, if we're able to hurt them early by playing through their man it will make them second guess themselves and not allow them the luxury of running as freely. Higgins and Giansiracusa appear to be best suited to this role as they have the skills to hurt them as well as the discipline to run with them.

Baker is a real foot soldier and provides them with a lot of defensive grunt however the thought of him being pushed back to the goal square against Akermanis is very tantalising as Akermanis has the speed, smarts and finishing ability to give Baker many headaches, it wouldn't surprise me to see St Kilda opt for a taller opponent ala Daniel Merrett last week.

It's not going to be a high scoring shootout so the ability to convert our opportunities will be crucial, if we can sustain the pressure and be competitive than I'm confident the longer the game goes the better chance we have of winning. Go dogs!

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Fantastic game review folks. Just as the footy is expected to go up a gear in the finals arena, well so have the game reviews.

I really hope that the most optimistic thoughts here come true on Friday.

[Go_Dogs]

Terrific contributions by everyone who has posted in this thread, leaving me with nothing to add. Going to be a ripper!

[anfo27]

Great preview guys, really interesting read.

Just wondering what people think of Rocket using Harbrow as a forward this week? He looked dangerous up there in that last quarter & with his lightning pace could be the wildcard we're loking for.

[boydogs]

Great preview guys, really interesting read.

Just wondering what people think of Rocket using Harbrow as a forward this week? He looked dangerous up there in that last quarter & with his lightning pace could be the wildcard we're loking for.

I think we will need him down back more than ever against the Saints to clear their zone and set up some controlled delivery to the forwards

[Happy Days]

Top review guys.

Just a thought; what about trying Callan or Picken as a defensive forward on Goddard? There was an article in the paper today about just how badly Goddard has destroyed us this year, and we can't let this happen again if we are to be any chance. I mention Tim and Liam because I don't think any of our current forwards have the pace or defensive nous to do the job properly. Thoughts?

[boydogs]

Top review guys.

Just a thought; what about trying Callan or Picken as a defensive forward on Goddard? There was an article in the paper today about just how badly Goddard has destroyed us this year, and we can't let this happen again if we are to be any chance. I mention Tim and Liam because I don't think any of our current forwards have the pace or defensive nous to do the job properly. Thoughts?

Agree with the need for this and would suggest Gilbee for the role. He could be damaging in scoring from a long way out and with limited opportunities with his kicking skills, which would force Goddard to be more accountable. Also having played in defense he knows how to shut someone down. Callan will be needed on a small forward and Picken on a midfielder

[LostDoggy]

Dogs by 4 points. Down in the last 5 minutes to fo with Aker to get us within a kick and Johnno to get the winning goal!

[ratsmac]

Great review guys!
I feel really good about this game for some reason. The saints are a great team and have beaten us quite convincingly, but our form and the style we have been playing lately should trouble them.

STUFF HISTORY, C'MON DOGS WE CAN DO IT.

[Ozza]

Obviously we are playing a different team this year - but here are some stats from last years Prelim - of blokes we need alot more from tomorrow night:

Welsh - 4 possession - no scores
Minson - 9 possessions - 2 behinds, only 6 hit outs
Hudson - 5 possessions and only 10 hit outs.
Hill - 5 possesions - no scores.
Hahn - 7 possies - 2 behinds
Cooney was injured - but had 16 possessions, and Aker was battling and had 14 possies and 1 goal.

One surprising stat that I didn't remember was that Bob Murphy had - 16 marks among 23 possesions - but no score.

[Stefcep]

Not much to add really. All well said.

The start will be critical, we can't afford to go 3-4 goals down in the first quarter.

The movement of our forwards and the delivery from the mids will also be crucial. We have to kick 3 and half goals per quarter.

If we're within 3 goals at 3/4 time we will win.

[neodog]

Obviously we are playing a different team this year - but here are some stats from last years Prelim - of blokes we need alot more from tomorrow night:

Welsh - 4 possession - no scores -
Minson - 9 possessions - 2 behinds, only 6 hit outs
Hudson - 5 possessions and only 10 hit outs.
Hill - 5 possesions - no scores.
Hahn - 7 possies - 2 behinds
Cooney was injured - but had 16 possessions, and Aker was battling and had 14 possies and 1 goal.

One surprising stat that I didn't remember was that Bob Murphy had - 16 marks among 23 possesions - but no score.

Predicted Friday night tallies

Welsh - 10 possessions - 6 marks - 1 goal 1 behind
Minson - 10 possessions - 1 goal 1 behind
hudson - 8 possessions - 15 hit outs
Hill - not playing
Hahn - 12 possessions - 4 goals 1 behind
Cooney - 32 possessions - 2 goals
Aker - 2 goals

total goal so far - 10 goals...now we need 6 more from Ward, Gilbee, johno, higgins, gia, boyd, cross, eagleton....