The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

[alwaysadog]

This thread is not about the premiership winner for 2010 but instead asks you to polish the crystal ball and envisage the future but with a specific and different purpose and to pick which side you think is most likely to slip and which is most likely to progress and of course to explain your reasons for those choices.

In between season prognostications nearly everybody adopts a slightly adjusted status quo position ie the same top teams with slight movement. This is seldom the case, yes some teams maintain a consistent form line but there are bolters and sliders. Each season for the last several one side has improved more than most expected; the bolter, and one side has crashed; the slider, ala Hawthorn 2009.

Below are the teams in ladder order at the end of the 2009 home and away season, with a prompt thought or two.

St Kilda: Can the bayside blond-rinsers maintain the intensity and take the final step?

Geelong: Are the pussies still a force, slowly crumbling or regrouping?

Western Bulldogs: Was the Dogs late season form a new found and sustainable intensity or a brief flourish that won’t last; will BBBarry see out the season?

Collingwood: Do the wobbles have the necessary ability to challenge; will the recruits make much difference?

Adelaide: Are they as good as their late season form suggested or were forces combining in a unique manner and overstated their case?

Brisbane: Will the Lions competition with Visy as the country’s biggest recyclers pay off or is a slide likely, can they deliver enough quality ball into forward 50 to allow the twin egos to dominate?

Carlton: Are the blue baggers really coming or likely to be going, will Fevs departure be a positive or a negative?

Essendon: In the death seat, the bombers seemed to fall into 8th position, are they likely to show further improvement or to find the young side performs inconsistently and falls back to the tigres historic position?

Hawthorn: Was 2008 an aberration or was 2009, can they have as bad a season again? In theory they know how a flag is won, can they rise phoenix like to further glory?

Port Adelaide: Is there enough mature quality and can some of the younger ones who showed promise kick on or are they lacking the ability for a real challenge, is Choco past it or just lying doggo?

West Coast Eagles: They always think they are close, but do they have the depth of quality players to improve substantially; is their midfield explosive enough to cover other weaknesses as it used to?

Sydney Swans: seems to have recruited by trade and draft quite well; will they be able to cover and advance on the very ordinary 2009 by their standards. Can Roos squeeze something out in his last year or is that a vain hope?

North Melbourne; have gone for the doctor, coach wise, will Scott’s hard edge prove a winning factor or does he just lack sufficient quality players to advance beyond a middle ranking?

Fremantle: Some quality players but is there enough real talent and can the next rank of young players move up, recycling again, McPhee is back, will this make any difference? Does Harvs have a plan and is it coming together?

Richmond: after all the turmoil of last season and the loss of Richo, have they got sufficient good players to put a good run together? Will the new coach make a difference?

Melbourne: few see more than a slight improvement; can they go beyond the bottom 4?

So who will be the bolter and who will be the slider and why do you think such is likely to transpire?

[GVGjr]

The Pies could be the danger to our top 3 spot in my opinion. They picked up a very competitive ruckman and a solid midfielder.

[AndrewP6]

I reckon the Blues will slide, they're gonna struggle to replace 90 goals...I think Adelaide will be competitive at the pointy end, but without the planets aligned, they'll fall...I think the Dawks will climb back up, although their ruck stocks aren't flash (good luck Skip!)...hate to say it, but the Pies could be a force...

[Happy Days]

I like the Eagles to bolt; They showed what they are capable of at the end of the season, and have the best group of young players in the league in my opinion. If Kennedy can become the dominant key forward that he is capable of being, and their midfield comes on like one would expect it to, I see no reason why the Eagles can't comfortably finish inside the eight.

A slider is much harder to pick, as I can't see any of the teams that finished in the eight this year not being there or there abouts again. The two most likely to not make it again are probably Brisbane and Essendon, but they won't be far off. Overall, I think the league this year will be a much more even competition towards the top, with a large group of good teams (Geelong, Dogs, Saints, Pies, Adelaide, Hawthorn, etc), but will rapidly thin out as it goes towards the bottom, with an equally large group of bad teams. In terms of sliding, it will come from this bottom group, but they were already so far off the makr to begin with, that it won't have much effect on the finals.

[mighty_west]

Sounds predictable, but Eagles as well to be the Usain Bolt of 2010, not only because they kicked our butts twice last season, but they way they finished off the season.

They obviously need players like Cox & Kerr to be fit & firing, but with those more experienced players as well as an exciting young group, they really look like going places, i predict them to be last years Crows and be round abouts, really bolt up, but not go all the way.

Likely finish: 6-4th

The slider, one name - Fevola, the Navy poo's relied so much on one player more than any side, even though their midfield is looking good, especially with Judd running around, but they also lost Stevens who was also a solid performer in the midfield.

Brock Mclean may help a little, but just cannot see them going places with having to play players such as Fisher or Setanta O'hAilpin as their main forwards, Waite is a quality player, but is coming off a full knee re-co plus would also be required to play down back, plus Fev would have been the perfect support up forward to young Kruiser if he was to be played at CHF.

Likely finish: 15th - 13th

[Twodogs]

I still dont rate the Saints.


The situation with Luke Ball showed them at their worst. I still dont think Lyon think's he made a mistake leaving Ball on the bench, or more likely wont admit to it, and he's become increasingly more shrill every time the guy's name comes up. Besides that I think they had a season out of the box this year and still managed to come up short.
Everything wont go their way again this year.

I also cant see where they will get automatic improvement from. Lovett brings a bit more pace maybe but they lost Ball and that doesnt seem like a huge upgrade (if at all) that will get them over the line.

Maybe 5 or 6, more likely 7th or 8th.


My big bolter is the Eagles for much the same reasons outlined by other posters-4th to 6th.

I reckon North might improve in the short term too. They have a good list with a few young players who showed a bit last year. A new coach who seems a good fit for their club-North have always thrived under coaches who played the game hard-new facilities and a club united in one place for the first in a few years will have them jumping out of their skins-may make the 8.

[Swoop]

It's hard to find where the improvement will come from at Carlton after losing their superstar goalkicker. The Blues forward 50 entries were dominated by Fevola and their next most lethal forward is a livewire pocket named Eddie Betts who was made a better player by having Fevola next to him. Perhaps the unpredictability may work for them but I fail to see where the goals are going to come from. They might play finals but just as likely to miss.

I believe Geelong will lose their invincibility and the aura that surrounds them next season. Don't get me wrong they will still have the quality to play finals and beat most sides on any given day but I expect the competition to slowly catch them and I think the Cats depth or lack of will be tested at times throughout the year.

Hawthorn is a funny one, premiers one year and missing the finals the next. I expect the Hawks will find themselves settling somewhere in between their past two seasons efforts, they rate themselves higher than what they really are, finals yes but not top 4.

Brisbane, the great unknown! They were some way off the top sides and have they really added much? Yes, Fevola and Brown are a very dangerous duo but so was Bradshaw & Brown. Fevola only managed roughly an extra 20 goals on top of Bradshaws contribution this season. Key forwards were never an issue for the Lions, it was the fact they lacked other forward options to assist on the scoreboard that hurt them. They would argue Buchanan & possibly Clarke could address this but they are no guarantees. On top of all that they still lack the depth and quality in their midfield, they rely too heavily on Black & Power and don't get enough support from Johnstone and to a lesser extent Brennan.

Finally, others have addressed it already but I expect WCE to play finals in 2010. They have a good balanced young list, they have excellent resources and despite what has gone on in the past they have a successful, winning culture and mindset.

[Remi Moses]

Bolters I think will be West Coast even though late season form can be a furfy,just reckon they showed signs in our game that thet are arriving again

Sliders - The Navy Colluding cheats just don't know where they're goals are going to come from. O'halipan [pleaseee!] Fisher [no!] . Not overly impressed with their back 6 either they rely heavily on undersized key defenders Jamieson and Thornton.

[Remi Moses]

The Pies could be the danger to our top 3 spot in my opinion. They picked up a very competitive ruckman and a solid midfielder.

I agree they'll go well. Their defence relies on Presti to much for mine,they need Brown to step up. I also think their midfield needs a bit of dash got alot of the same type

[Go_Dogs]

I think Hawthorn will be a big bolter (I probably would have gone for WC too - but as everyone else has!) as they have added a couple of players who should improve their performance, and should get a lot more out of their established players. They have a few good kids coming through such as my boy Schoenmakers who is apparently looking huge and a genuine chance to hold down a key defensive role.

Add Shaun Burgoyne and Josh Gibson to the mix and they really have added some speed and polish in Burgoyne and another key defender in Gibson who I actually think is a fairly handy player.

Their one major weakness again seems to be the rucking department, but they have improved their defence and their forward line and midfield will again be very good.


Not really sure about any sliders, Carlton, Essendon and Brisbane would be my tips. I can't really see any of Geelong, St Kilda, Collingwood or Adelaide sliding. Whilst Brisbane might, I get a feeling they'll probably hold ground at worst and probably improve a little on their 2009.

[Mofra]

Hawks & WCE to bolt - still not convinced by the Hawk's defensive stocks but they are strong elsewhere.

Carlton to slide, and Essendon to fall as well. Both teams will struggle in the F50 and Carlton's defensive 6 look undersized against some teams as well.

[LostDoggy]

Looking at the summary, it's pretty hard to predict!

I think the obvious slider will be Carlton (potentially even bottom 4 if the season starts badly for them or a key injury or two hits), but beyond that it's hard to say.

My gut says that the Saints will slide too -- their gameplan is no longer 'new' and, with all due respect to Hayes and their half-back line, they still rely more on St. Nick than almost any other team does on one single player, and that can't be a good thing. They won't drop far though -- still top 4 for mine.

Geelong I see in danger of missing the top 4. Their midfield is as good as any, but an aging defence and lack of quality key position dangermen up forward sounds like the Dogs of 2-3 years ago.. much will depend on Mooney's form. Regardless of their final ladder position, though, they will still be a very dangerous team come finals.

Bolters are far harder to pick -- the bottom 10 this year were pretty even, and it's hard to see much changing. Hawthorn is a far weaker side than their premiership team and they don't have any magic game-plan to take them places this time.. much will depend on Franklin's form, but I don't think they'll be making too many waves in the near future (if anything, I think they're on the wane). Despite the hype so far on this thread, I'm not convinced about WCE either -- their late season form flatters to deceive, I would suggest. Cox's dominance is no longer as pronounced in an era of more mobile big men and Kerr can't hold a one-paced team together on his own.

Adelaide do look the goods and I think are a monty to be top 4. My other surprise bolter is -- wait for it -- Richmond. I don't think they'll make the 8 or anything, but I don't think they'll be bottom 2 again either. The complete lack of expectation on them (for a change!) can only be a good thing, and there's some talent down the spine and in the middle, so I expect they would win around 10 games this year, which would be a huge improvement on 2009.

---

ps. is going from third to winning the premiership 'bolting'? Go Dogs!

[Dazza]

I think Carlton and Essendon will slide. Essendon mainly due to having a pretty hard draw and losing Lloyd/Lucas/Mcphee. Carlton for obvious reasons. I've heard a few people spruiking it up saying they will have to play like the bulldogs next year with multiple avenues to goal but the talent to do it isn't there IMO.

Bolters are a bit harder to pick but you'd think Hawthorn would rise up the rankings.

[ledge]

Slider- Collingwood.
Bolter-Melbourne.
Collingwood i see as being a side that has no stars but plays well as a team, a Malthouse trait, but after so many years of doing well and not getting high draft picks it takes its toll.

Ball a star? Overrated in my opinion, if he was as good as the press and Eddie say, why was he playing seconds at the Saints?
Melbourne have some really good kids i see them improving, maybe not finals but moving up to 9th.

[boydogs]

I actually don't think there will be that much change:

St Kilda 1 > 3
Geelong 2 > 4
WB 3 > 1
Collingwood 4 > 5
Adelaide 5 > 2
BL 6 > 9
Carlton 7 > 10
Essendon 8 > 7

Hawthorn 9 > 6
Port 10 > 12
WCE 11 > 8
Sydney 12 > 14
North 13 > 11
Freo 14 > 13
Richmond 15 > 15
Melbourne 16 > 16

I have no side moving more than 3 places. Hawthorn & West Coast into the 8, Brisbane and Carlton out. Mainly due to the age of their best players & quality of young talent.

The same top 5 as last year, but different Grand Finalists and premier ;)

[always right]

I think we'll see the most pronounced divide between the top eight and bottom eight this year. The fight for the top four is going to be a ripper.
In order;

Top Eight:
Bulldogs
Geelong
Saints
Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawks
Essendon
Brisbane

Bottom Eight:
Westcoast
Carlton
Sydney
North Melbourne
Fremantle
Port Power
Melbourne
Richmond

[Dry Rot]

Agree that WCE (will make use of their home ground advantage next year) and Hawks are the obvious bolters but the Swans IMO will do better than many predictions above.

Yes, they've lost Jolly but their replacements will do OK and the two hawks midfielders they recruited will add a little bit extra.

Their backline while shortish is competent but a forwardline of Goodes at CHF and Bradshaw and White adds a fair bit of tall power up forward.

IMO the Swans were the best non-finalist team this year (and probably better than the Dons) and I reckon they'll make the finals in the 6-8 range next year.

Sliders will be interesting. Two youngish teams - Pies and Crows - did surprisingly well this year - can they back that up next year? Will the Lions mesh together well or will Voss's grand plans unravel?

The two GF sides are getting on - Saints rucks could bow out anytime with injuries and Riewoldt's knee won't be any better. Likewise, Cats have ageing key players in Ottens, Mooney and Scarlett.

On paper, the Blue cheats don't look flash aside from their midfield and would a surprise to make the finals.

And what about the Dogs? If ageing bodies hold up, no surprise key injuries and Hall doesn't belt anyone we should at least make the GF. But add in any of these negative possibilities and we could slide, although our depth is looking the best I recall.

[Sockeye Salmon]

I actually don't think there will be that much change:

St Kilda 1 > 3
Geelong 2 > 4
WB 3 > 1
Collingwood 4 > 5
Adelaide 5 > 2
BL 6 > 9
Carlton 7 > 10
Essendon 8 > 7

Hawthorn 9 > 6
Port 10 > 12
WCE 11 > 8
Sydney 12 > 14
North 13 > 11
Freo 14 > 13
Richmond 15 > 15
Melbourne 16 > 16

I have no side moving more than 3 places. Hawthorn & West Coast into the 8, Brisbane and Carlton out. Mainly due to the age of their best players & quality of young talent.

The same top 5 as last year, but different Grand Finalists and premier ;)

It always looks that way pre-season but it never happens.

You (and all the rest of us too) will be wrong by miles and next year we will all be saying, "well, I never expected them to do so well".

[Twodogs]

Melbourne have some really good kids i see them improving, maybe not finals but moving up to 9th.



Yeah I like Melbourne's chances this year too. I rate Bailey as a coach and they have some very good kids.

[Twodogs]

Yes, they've lost Jolly but their replacements will do OK and the two hawks midfielders they recruited will add a little bit extra.

Their backline while shortish is competent but a forwardline of Goodes at CHF and Bradshaw and White adds a fair bit of tall power up forward.

IMO the Swans were the best non-finalist team this year (and probably better than the Dons) and I reckon they'll make the finals in the 6-8 range next year.





Keannelly is a huge gain for them but Mumford is only just a player and the Swans overpaid drastically for him, as a first ruck I I dont reckon he adds much value. Kennedy and McGlynn give them two more 'Swan type' midfielders, McGlynn especially should play the SCG well and Bradshaw will add a bit to them.

I still have them out of the eight though because they just dont have enough quality players and a fairly ordinary onball division. The coach is just marking time as well. Annointing a successor and giving yourself another year and a half is BS-if you have lost the passion then it's time to move on.

[Dry Rot]

Keannelly is a huge gain for them but Mumford is only just a player and the Swans overpaid drastically for him, as a first ruck I I dont reckon he adds much value. Kennedy and McGlynn give them two more 'Swan type' midfielders, McGlynn especially should play the SCG well and Bradshaw will add a bit to them.

I still have them out of the eight though because they just dont have enough quality players and a fairly ordinary onball division. The coach is just marking time as well. Annointing a successor and giving yourself another year and a half is BS-if you have lost the passion then it's time to move on.

Will be interesting to revisit this in 10 months time. Don't necessarily disagree with much of your post but perhaps my starting ie this season rates them higher.

I watched them play the Saints live. Admittedly it was the SCG but I reckon they played them as well as we did in the PF (and like us they should have won).

Re Mumford agree but Seaby will go OK. Agree that they still lack zip in the midfield but have a couple of interesting young 'uns coming eg Hannebury (sp?).

After the shocking drop in AFL ratings in Sydney http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/we-will-fight-them-on-the-couches-league-outrates-afl-for-first-time-20091220-l7i3.html we poor clubs need the Swans to do well.


..While rugby league's Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne figures are up and regionals constant, the AFL has suffered a worrying fall in Sydney and a dip in Brisbane, the metropolitan areas where they are seeking to build support with new teams. Sydney's numbers have dropped a massive 19.5 per cent, Brisbane's 1.5 per cent, and regionals are down 13.4 per cent.

With the Swans in a transition period during which their stars have retired and they are unable to access top draft choices, Sydney's audience is expected to decline further...

[Twodogs]

Re Mumford agree but Seaby will go OK. Agree that they still lack zip in the midfield but have a couple of interesting young 'uns coming eg Hannebury (sp?).




I forgot about Seaby. He's the sort of guy who could do quite well with more time in the ruck.

[Dry Rot]

I forgot about Seaby. He's the sort of guy who could do quite well with more time in the ruck.

Could surprise.

And sides like us and North need a strong Swans.

[LostDoggy]

Seaby is crap compared to Jolly.

[boydogs]

It always looks that way pre-season but it never happens.

You (and all the rest of us too) will be wrong by miles and next year we will all be saying, "well, I never expected them to do so well".

I know what you are saying, there is a stat that goes something like every year since the final 8 was introduced one the sides who missed finals one year makes the top 4 the next year.

There was such a gap this year though between the top 5 and the rest I can't see it at this stage. The best chances would appear to be Hawthorn, who I have coming up to 6th, and West Coast who were 4-13 at one stage last year but looked better in the last few rounds

[LostDoggy]

Sorry to ask but why do 'we the Bulldogs' need Sydney to do well?

[Dry Rot]

Sorry to ask but why do 'we the Bulldogs' need Sydney to do well?

Next TV deal -> $$$s

[LostDoggy]

Next TV deal -> $$$s

Why is it just the Bulldogs that need to worries about it? To me the TV deal is a league wide issue.

This prop up Sydney mentality is BS. Why the hell have a competition if same clubs 'need to be sucessful'.

[Dry Rot]

After the shocking drop in AFL ratings in Sydney http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/we-will-fight-them-on-the-couches-league-outrates-afl-for-first-time-20091220-l7i3.html we poor clubS need the Swans to do well.


Why is it just the Bulldogs that need to worries about it? To me the TV deal is a league wide issue.



Attention to detail is useful. :)

[LostDoggy]

Attention to detail is useful. :)

I still don't understand. We are a poor club because clubs like Sydney get propped up. We need keep them healthy so we can still be poor.

[Sedat]

Keannelly is a huge gain for them but Mumford is only just a player and the Swans overpaid drastically for him, as a first ruck I I dont reckon he adds much value. Kennedy and McGlynn give them two more 'Swan type' midfielders, McGlynn especially should play the SCG well and Bradshaw will add a bit to them.
You'd be interested to know that the Swans are absolutely stoked that they got Mumford to the club. Their coaching staff think he has the raw tools to perfectly compliment their stoppage-laden game plan and are very confident he will become a vitally important part of their ruck and stoppage set-up for many years to come.

I mentioned it on a thread in the 'AFL Talk' board, but I believe Brisbane will slide out of the 8 this season. It's difficult enough to get elite talent from far and wide to gel immediately (just ask Man City) let alone when so many nomads of decidedly average talent levels arrive at a club. Because of their complete inability to improve their glaring weaknesses in the midfield, Fevola will be lucky to replace Bradshaw's quality output of recent seasons. Their awfully thin midfield rotations stood out like dog's balls during the 2 finals they played and their best midfielders are not getting any younger - they are also slow as treacle in the middle and sadly lack both gut-runners and line-breakers. It all starts in the middle these days and I'm afraid they are a mile behind the deep midfield rotations of the condenders.

[hujsh]

I know what you are saying, there is a stat that goes something like every year since the final 8 was introduced one the sides who missed finals one year makes the top 4 the next year.

That stat finished this year.

[Mantis]

Their awfully thin midfield rotations stood out like dog's balls during the 2 finals they played and their best midfielders are not getting any younger - they are also slow as treacle in the middle and sadly lack both gut-runners and line-breakers. It all starts in the middle these days and I'm afraid they are a mile behind the deep midfield rotations of the condenders.

Yep, we gave their midfield a complete battering in the finals and abit for some poor finishing we would have beaten them by 15 goals.

Black and Power have been fantastic players for their team, but with both getting on in years one can't see them performing as well next year as they have in the past. Rich was shown up against us in the final and one would think he would have to drop a fair amount of bulk next year to improve his running ability to improve his game.

They will get a boost in the ruck division with the return of Charman and Leuenberger, but will this negate the development of Mitch Clark who played out of his skin in the second half of the 09 season? And with both Brown & Fevola up forward you can't really see them being able to add one of these talls to the mix.

I too can't see them being an improver and it will be interesting to watch for any fall-out when their losses start to mount.

[Dazza]

I think we'll see the most pronounced divide between the top eight and bottom eight this year. The fight for the top four is going to be a ripper.
In order;

Top Eight:
Bulldogs
Geelong
Saints
Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawks
Essendon
Brisbane

Bottom Eight:
Westcoast
Carlton
Sydney
North Melbourne
Fremantle
Port Power
Melbourne
Richmond

Sounds about right though I can't see Essendon making it into the 8 next year but I can't pick who will take their spot maybe Sydney/West Coast/North Melbourne

[mjp]

I am with DR in that I think Sydney will be the bolter.

Jetta and Dennis-Lane are ready to go – both will kick goals and create match-up problems. O’Loughlin retiring helps – White and Bradshaw will form a strong forward tandem. Any qualms about their speed midfield can be pushed aside – they will have Malceski, Kenneally and Shaw all providing that ball carrying option from half-back…I agree that Jolly will be missed but Mumford will be adequate in the square with Seaby able to provide 20 goals resting up forward. Between the two of them, they will cover Jolly – the team will be one ‘runner’ short most weeks but given the

I also think that Brisbane will fall completely apart. I admire what Voss has done – made tough calls on players who he doesn’t think are up to it – but they have cut away at the fabric of the place by moving on Bradshaw and McDonald, let alone cutting loose Harding (injured) and Hooper (various issues)…players don’t like that sort of thing. And then add in someone who is the antithesis of team – I mean, if Hooper is such a bad egg who the player leadership cant control, then what for a second makes them think they can cope with Fevola? If things start going bad, I think they could go historically bad up in Brisbane.

[bringbackVFLpark]

Tough to pick at this time of the year – so much of it depends on injuries (who would have picked Hawthorn to be the slider of 2009?) and how kind the draw is to clubs (bolters having easier draws with fewer games against the Top 4-6 of the previous year).

Potential sliders
- Hard to see St Kilda sliding out of the top four, but repeating 20 wins could be a challenge given everything that could go right for them did in 2009, well ... up until the last 15 minutes of the GF anyway
- Carlton won’t kick enough goals, won’t make the finals ... much to the delight of footy fans everywhere

Bolters
- Adelaide to go from strength to strength, with their good young side and Neil Craig
- WCE will climb with wins at home, but hard to see them winning enough games away from home (and against the good sides in Perth) to sneak into the eight

[Remi Moses]

Not a snowballs hope in hell of Sydney making the eight. That midfield is well past it's use buy date and the loss of Jolly is signficant. Mumford is very young and extremely raw,the backline has lost a lot of experience. Lewis Roberts Thompson [Blimey] :eek:Craig Bolton good player but has one hell of a burden in the back half. Sydney at least have finally used the draft and done quite well by all reports

[mjp]

Not a snowballs hope in hell of Sydney making the eight.

Betcha they do! What odds are you giving me???

[Twodogs]

I've thought about it some more and after a longer look at their list I've got the Swans as finalists too.


That's really only because 8 teams have make it though-basically I can see at least 8 lists that are worse than theirs.

[comrade]

I'd happily play Sydney in a final - they used to beat up on us but we're too strong and polished for them now.

Having Bazza on our side wouldn't hurt either. If they make the eight, they'll be out early.

[LostDoggy]

The bolter appears to me to be usually the result of innovative coaching i.e. Hawthorn's cluster, the Saints defensive structure the Swans negating, defensive side. My money is on North Melbourne, they were crippled by injuries in 2009, and have been drafting well - new coach out to make his mark early.

[comrade]

The bolter appears to me to be usually the result of innovative coaching i.e. Hawthorn's cluster, the Saints defensive structure the Swans negating, defensive side. My money is on North Melbourne, they were crippled by injuries in 2009, and have been drafting well - new coach out to make his mark early.

Good point - it'll be interesting to see what Scott has in his bag of tricks.

[GVGjr]

The bolter appears to me to be usually the result of innovative coaching i.e. Hawthorn's cluster, the Saints defensive structure the Swans negating, defensive side. My money is on North Melbourne, they were crippled by injuries in 2009, and have been drafting well - new coach out to make his mark early.

There was news yesterday that Petrie would be settled in as a key forward rather than as the Mr Fix it he has been in the last few seasons. They are stacked for good talls so if they have a good season with injuries they could be in for a vastly better season.

[alwaysadog]

Seaby is crap compared to Jolly.

Ernie, Ernie, Ernie, I know you wrote this some time ago and I waited for someone to pull you up, but how can you expect us to accept a senior member of this board advancing such crap in the place of argument.

So treat us with some respect and give us your reasons. I assume you have some.

[LostDoggy]

Ernie, Ernie, Ernie, I know you wrote this some time ago and I waited for someone to pull you up, but how can you expect us to accept a senior member of this board advancing such crap in the place of argument.

So treat us with some respect and give us your reasons. I assume you have some.

No one pulled me up cos its probably true, though MJP does like Seaby.
The simple logic is Jolly was unlucky not to be named All Australian whereas Seaby wasn't a regular at WC. Jolly went for pick 14 and Seaby for pick 22 when the Swans lately have been paying overs and selling under.

Seaby might do better at the Swans but he isn't in Jolly's league.

[alwaysadog]

I would have thought that many wouldn't have rated Jolly too highly when he went to the Swans, but he seems to have made good use of his chances.

[Twodogs]

Seaby might do better at the Swans but he isn't in Jolly's league.



The media and Collingwood have convinced most of us that Jolly is the result of an experiment using the DNA of Nicholls, Madden and Dempsey to create some sort of super ruckman. He isnt-he's a decent ruckman-strong mark, OK kick, very fit and gets to lots of contests.


He'll go alright at Collingwood but he wont win them a flag-I dont even think they will improve much on what we saw this year. The draw being weighted in their favour means they will make the 8 but that's about it.

[alwaysadog]

The conventional wisdom is that the eventual premiers make their move from about round five so I thought this thread might be worth a bump to track progress.

I know it's early days but how are your predictions going?

Want to change your mind?

Not yet made any statements, have a go now.

[Go_Dogs]

Want to change your mind?

I think I might need to start again with my predictions ;)

[LostDoggy]

My prediction that my predictions would be crap have predictably come to fruition.:(

[ledge]

Well I must give credit to Collingwood doing better than I thought and Melbourne sadly have been struck with injuries but with Scully and Trengrove coming along I still feel they will move up the ladder.

Just reading the Jolley statements from ES, isnt it amazing, to me Jolley now looks like a dud at Collingwood, but i suppose it takes time for some players to get used to a new club, he could come good.

[Mantis]

Well I must give credit to Collingwood doing better than I thought and Melbourne sadly have been struck with injuries but with Scully and Trengrove coming along I still feel they will move up the ladder.

Melbourne have already been big improvers. After a poor showing in rd 1 their last 3 weeks have been very good. They really should be 3-1 if not for a dropped mark in the dying seconds of their game against Collingwood which would be a great result considering where they have been for the past 2 or 3 years.

This weeks game against Brisbane will be a big test, but their form suggests they will at the very least be competitive.

[AndrewP6]

Melbourne have already been big improvers. After a poor showing in rd 1 their last 3 weeks have been very good. They really should be 3-1 if not for a dropped mark in the dying seconds of their game against Collingwood which would be a great result considering where they have been for the past 2 or 3 years.

This weeks game against Brisbane will be a big test, but their form suggests they will at the very least be competitive.

And they sure were! Belted the Lions...

[mjp]

I also think that Brisbane will fall completely apart. I admire what Voss has done – made tough calls on players who he doesn’t think are up to it – but they have cut away at the fabric of the place by moving on Bradshaw and McDonald, let alone cutting loose Harding (injured) and Hooper (various issues)…players don’t like that sort of thing. And then add in someone who is the antithesis of team – I mean, if Hooper is such a bad egg who the player leadership cant control, then what for a second makes them think they can cope with Fevola? If things start going bad, I think they could go historically bad up in Brisbane.

Whilst I will refuse to acknowledge when I am wrong, I am very eager to point out when I am right.

Did anyone else see Brisbane play last night? In a terrible game of footy - just a poor standard with the 3rd q almost comical (are Carlton really a top 4 challenger?) Brisbane were pathetic. They don't seem to have a plan - any plan - and are turning the footy over through decision making rather than foot skills...

I am not a fan of Voss as a coach and their actions at the draft/trading table last year - in the last draft before the GC/GWS concessions kick-in fully - could set them back 10 years.

[ledge]

I always though Voss wouldnt be any good, had his honeymoon year now the real stuff kicks in.
Brisbane were missing the 2 big guns but in saying that maybe one of them isnt helping the cause outside of playing the game.
The big question is can Voss show the toughness it takes to make players scared respectful, proud and listen to him on and off the field?

[Mofra]

I am not a fan of Voss as a coach and their actions at the draft/trading table last year - in the last draft before the GC/GWS concessions kick-in fully - could set them back 10 years.
Staker has been a success but all their other choices - Buchanan, Raines, and yes even Fev - have not been the payoff they would like.

[EasternWest]

Staker has been a success but all their other choices - Buchanan, Raines, and yes even Fev - have not been the payoff they would like.

I've always regarded Staker as a fair mid range player with good versatility. I'm surprised he couldn't nail down a spot at WC. Maybe he was held back by the terrible haircuts?

Chin could use some work but.

[Twodogs]

Did anyone else see Brisbane play last night? In a terrible game of footy - just a poor standard with the 3rd q almost comical




You're a footy tragic like me Mike. Was that the worst standard of football you've ever seen inside a single match? About halfway through the first 1/4 I started giggling at the ineptitude of players from both teams-some of the skill errors were glaring-and by halftime it was just a poor, poor joke.

[Desipura]

You're a footy tragic like me Mike. Was that the worst standard of football you've ever seen inside a single match? About halfway through the first 1/4 I started giggling at the ineptitude of players from both teams-some of the skill errors were glaring-and by halftime it was just a poor, poor joke.
Well lets hope Carlton bring the same game next week. First we need to get over the Hawks tonight.

[Hotdog60]

Well lets hope Carlton bring the same game next week. First we need to get over the Hawks tonight.

So do I because Walls on one week at a time said a week ago that we would lose the Carlton game.

[Desipura]

So do I because Walls on one week at a time said a week ago that we would lose the Carlton game.
On last nights performance, he may not be far off the mark.:(

[Sockeye Salmon]

On last nights performance, he may not be far off the mark.:(

Comparing the Carlton game and our game I would suggest either us or Hawthorn would give Carlton a touchup.

[Ghost Dog]

On last nights performance, he may not be far off the mark.:(

Well, Walls predicted us as defeating St Kilda by 8 points in the Final this year. Hope he is right!

[hujsh]

Comparing the Carlton game and our game I would suggest either us or Hawthorn would give Carlton a touchup.

True but we could easily lower ourselves for the occasion to our opponents standard.