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comrade
24-03-2010, 09:41 PM
2010 AFL SEASON
ROUND 1 - MATCH PREVIEW

WESTERN BULLDOGS versus COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES
Docklands, Sunday March 27th, 2:10pm

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WHEN THEY LAST MET:

Round 22, 2009 Home and Away Season
Docklands, August 30th

Western Bulldogs 100
defeated
Collingwood 76

With third spot up for grabs, the Bulldogs met the Pies in the last game of the home and away season.

After a tight first half, the Bulldogs switched to plan B - denying Collingwood consistent use of the ball. By cutting off supply to their front runners, the Bulldogs were able to apply scoreboard pressure, before breaking the game open in the fourth quarter.

Boyd (35 disposals) was at his ball winning best, with Brad Johnson ending the night with four majors, including the late goal that secured third position on the ladder.

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PRE-AMBLE

Here we are. The real stuff.

There's a buzz at the Kennel, everyone wants to jump aboard the Bulldogs wagon. For the long suffering fans, the pre-season has presented a dilemma: Do we soak in the wave of optimism and euphoria or screw that damn lid on tight?

Well, the pre-season is over and means nothing now. Round 1, against a genuine contender who matches up well against us will show whether we are as good as we think (hope) we are.

With a tough first 6 rounds, a win straight up is vital....

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SELECTION TABLE: BULLDOGS

An impressive pre-season, culminating in the club’s first piece of senior silverware for 40 years, means that spots in the 22 are at an absolute premium. We’re in an enviable position in that we probably have 25 or more players who have genuine claims on playing top line AFL football. Unfortunately, 25 doesn’t go in to 22.

With Johnson looking more likely as the game draws nearer, and Hahn training without issue, there are 2 spots up for grabs and three players pushing hard.

Andrejs Everitt has been our biggest improver over the pre-season. After a tumultuous trade week, Dre has put his head down on the training track, running with the lead groups and pushing himself physically for the first time in his career at the Bulldogs.

His NAB Cup form has been solid without being outstanding, but he’s competed well in defence, particularly one on one, which has been a glaring weakness for the past 2 years.

Brodie Moles has been the suprise packet of our pre-season. He’s ready made - clean at ground level, neat with his kicking and strong in the clinches. As a rookie, new to the club, he has not put a foot wrong.

Josh Hill has continued to excite and frustrate in equal measures - the remaining hairs on Rocket’s head must fear for their longevity when Josh takes the field.

He’s teamed well with Hall at times, floating as third man up to take the ball when the opposition defender has his hands full with big Bazza. But, as is his want, Josh has gone missing for long stretches of play. He is a great talent, and provides another marking target which may come on handy if Johnson has reduced game time this week.

For mine, Everitt is a lock based on a solid pre-season and his ability to provide extra defensive cover. The Moles/Hill decision is less clear cut - with both Johnson and Hahn just about locked in, do we need another mid-sized forward? Is extra midfield depth more valuable against a pretty deep (but slow) Magpie engine room?

Too close to call, but Moles could be unlucky.

SELECTION TABLE: MAGPIES

After a solid pre-season, the Magpies have an almost fully healthy list to choose from.

With the addition of Ball and Jolly, and an even playing group, spots in their 22 are going to be hard to come by.

Steele Sidebottom, Shane O’Bree, John McCarthy and Sharrod Wellingham are all fighting for midfield spots, with Ben Reid and Nathan Brown on the selection radar, but probably not required against the Dogs, with Presti to take Hall and Leigh Brown a head of the queue.

They may not be jam packed with stars, but their depth is good, with plenty of young players who have had exposure to top line senior football.

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KEY MATCH UPS

Picken vs Didak/Lockyer/Thomas

Despite a blue collar vibe, the Magpies have some of the league’s best front runners (cheats). In the Round 15 game last year, Lockyer snuck out the front on numerous occasions to put us to the sword.

Picken plays well on outside types and may rotate on all three. He could also play a sweeping role, sitting just outside the congestion, denying the likes of Lockyer the chance to run away un-impeded. Stopping these types will go a long way to choking up their attacking forays, and will allow the likes of Lake and Morris to destroy the high balls that come in.

Jolly/Fraser v Hudson/Minson

The Pies’ boom recruit gets to match up against the bare knuckled (and severely underrated) duo of Hudson and Minson. Hudson has performed well against Jolly in our last few outings against Sydney, and Minson has come back nicely from his Bonsoy scare.

The Jolly/Fraser combination will no doubt try to stretch our ruckmen around the ground, and up forward We may see Everitt play a run with role for periods ala his Round 22 performance last year.

Winning the ruck duel, giving our midfield first use and providing quick ball movement for our forwards first use will go a long way to putting a match winning score on the board. Watch for our big guys to be aggressive and take it to Jolly and Fraser from the first bounce.

Johnson vs Shaw

With Johnno coming off no game time over the pre-season, he will need to use all of his smarts to curtail the defensive run of Heath Shaw. The Magpies playmaker, Shaw is a crucial piece of the Collingwood attacking puzzle. When he plays well and is given a licence to run and create, they generally win.

Johnson will probably stay deeper than he normally would, due to his lack of pre-season game time and as a defensive ploy against Shaw. Despite his great attacking instincts, Shaw does struggle closer to goal when forced to play a close checking role. If Johnno gets the best of it and comes away with a few goals whilst keeping Shaw quiet, we should win.

The 6 headed defense monster vs our forward line

Collingwood has mastered the art of ‘communal defending’. Very rarely are Harry O, Presti or Maxwell left one out with their direct opponent. They’re happy to let opposition forwards run high up the field, allowing them to peel off and provide extra coverage when the ball comes in.

Winning the clearances and moving the ball quickly will help to isolate their defenders. Playing through the direct opponents of Maxwell and Harry O (guys like Higgins and Murphy) will be crucial in breaking up the structure.

In stead of re-wording Lantern’s preview from last year, here’s what he wrote about the Collingwood defensive unit:


Though a poor facsimile of Brian Lake, Nick Maxwell performs a comparable role down back for Collingwood, and will chop off any ill-considered forays forward, and won't be shy about taking the body in the process. Therefore, whether rapid-fire or patient as the situation dictates, we must be judicious with our ball-use entering forward 50, lest we spoonfeed the likes of Davis, O'Brien, Lockyer and damaging ball-carrier Heath Shaw, who ranks 2nd only to Sydney-based brother Rhyce for running bounces in the AFL.

Likewise, under no circumstance can we succumb to the trap of long bombs to a goal-square-bound Minson, who'll be a sitting duck for Prestigiacomo's superior spoiling, and in-turn Heath Shaw's rebound. Our small forwards must continue to be diligent about locking the ball into our forward-50, but we can't afford to have them chasing tail all night thanks to indiscriminate attacks.

Pretty much nails it, in my opinion.

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THE X-FACTOR

Barry.

The hottest man in football (not literally, obviously) adds an extra dimension to our forward line whenever he takes the field. A buzz drifts around the ground and all eyes are on the big fella.

On the back of quick direct ball movement, he can break a game open within a quarter as we saw against the Saints in the NAB Cup final.

More importantly, we’ve already seen him play the role as bail out option. He won the game against Port Adelaide, but he also took some strong contested marks against St Kilda when we had no other options available. This will be important against the Pies, as there will be times when they push us wide and we’re forced to go long.

Special mention goes to Brad Johnson and his 350th milestone - in front of a packed house in the first game of our most hyped season since 1954. Let’s hope we can harness that energy and swamp the Magpies from the first bounce.

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THE VERDICT

The Bulldogs are the most hyped ticket in town, for better or worse. We showed in the NAB Cup that our defensive pressure has stepped up a level, and with a new bald bloke causing havoc, we’re certainly a genuine premiership contender.

The Pies were the second best performed team of the pre-season. With a clean bill of health, and an even spread of talent on every line, they will go in confident.

Our ability to win the contested ball and overwhelm the Collingwood defence will be crucial in putting a winning score on the board. With Boyd and Cross going head to head with the likes of Swan and Ball, it should be a cracker in the middle.

Ultimately, I think we may just have too much class, with quality finishers such as Akermanis, Murphy and Gia adding polish to the aforementioned grunt men.

Bulldogs by 21 points in front of a sell out crowd.

LostDoggy
24-03-2010, 10:12 PM
Bulldogs by 43 Points. Been saying that margin all week and I'm sticking by it. Even predicted the scoreline at work;

Bulldogs 132
Magpies 89

The Coon Dog
24-03-2010, 10:59 PM
I reckon you've got the gig for the remainder of the season, t'was a top read comrade.

As usual, stopping Swan's ability to win contested ball will be crucial, though he doesn't always hurt you with his possessions, but he can run & run; might be a job for Crossy.

Leon Davis worries me too, you never know when he's likely to turn it on, but he needs to be shackled all the time. Can be dangerous in small bursts where he kicks 2 or 3 quick goals, particularly hitting the pack at pace & snapping over his left shoulder.

If Collingwood's defenders zone off & look to crowd Hall, I'd expect us to be smart going forward & use those players direct opponents as we've seen in the last 2 Prelim's with Milburn (Higgins) & Goddard (Hahn).

Dogs to run all over the Pies after half time to win by 37 points.

The Adelaide Connection
25-03-2010, 12:47 AM
Super preview Comrade. Very thorough and on the money IMO.

Dogs by 23
First Goal Hill (if he plays) or Higgins (if he doesn't). Either way a result of Collingwood all watching the shiny headed one.
BOG Boyd

chef
25-03-2010, 06:44 AM
Excellent preview comrade.

Doggies by 24
First goal- Higgins
BOG- Cooney

Go_Dogs
25-03-2010, 08:44 AM
Great read comrade.

I must say, I'm pretty worried about this game.

Mantis
25-03-2010, 09:12 AM
Excellent preview comrade... The quality of the read picks up just where left off in 09.

It certainly shapes as a huge test first up with both clubs looking to see how several unknown factors shape up when the real stuff begins. Hall? Jolly? Ball?

No doubt we come into this contest full of confidence after a series of very good hit-outs, but as we all know Collingwood are no mugs and will be brimming with confidence after giving Port a hiding just a couple of weeks back.

If our defensive pressure is up we win... It's as simple as that. We can't allow their pack of 'sheepdogs' to run free because as we saw in the first half back in rd 15 last year they will cut us to shreads, but when we pick them up and harass the ball carrier we can burn them going our way.

We have an edge in class through the middle so I'm hoping Cooney, Griffen & Higgins all play to their capabilities and on their pre-season form I can't see why they wouldn't.

I think it will be close for awhile, but I think we can run over the top of them and draw away for a solid win.

Mofra
25-03-2010, 09:24 AM
I still believe we're a better team than Collingwood; interesting to watch the improvement in both sides since last season. Ball & Jolley are quality highly (his development has been mismanaged by Collingwood IMO) however as pointed out, Hudson has played Jolley well in the past and I think our midfield group is just starting to peak.

Hall is a big improvement although Presi was always a spoiler first, rebounder second so the boost Hall gives us compared to last year is muted somewhat against the Pies.
Unfortunately I think much rests on two players who will come into the game under duress - Hahn & Johnson. Their likely opponents set up alot of play on the rebound and if we curb their influence, we win.

The Pie Man
25-03-2010, 10:00 AM
Great read comrade.

I must say, I'm pretty worried about this game.

So am I, but think it's the Bulldog fan's heart that's casuing the anxiety - my head says we win reasonably comfortably in the end

Max469
25-03-2010, 10:29 AM
Dogs by 9 pts in a hard battle.

Murph - 1st Goal

Aker - BOG

LostDoggy
25-03-2010, 10:32 AM
Wonderful review comrade --

but I have to set the record straight and point out that the wonderful words attributed to me above were actually written by Rocket Science, who did last year's round 22 preview.. it did sound verbose enough to be my post but I am sure I would have remembered penning such genius, so I trawled back and sure enough, I hadn't.

Always nice to be 'quoted' though, even erroneously!

---

ps. Shaw looks like he may be rotating a lot more through the middle this year; word is that he will play on the 'wing' but I didn't want to say that out loud and incur the wrath of "WING DOESN'T EXIST ANYMORE!" mjp.

Dazza
25-03-2010, 11:06 AM
Great review. Cooney said on the bounce the key focus for the mids on sunday will be contested possessions and stopping Collingwoods uncontested marks.

Studentlib
25-03-2010, 11:43 AM
Great review and I hope we get the same result as last time. Would someone like to post the opposition coaches' strategies and pinpoint our strengths/weaknesses from its perspective.
When I go to matches I can follow our tactics some of the time (with the help of these previews) and give myself a headache in the process!

But being aware of the opposition tactics in advance would heighten my appreciation of all aspects of the game. So where do Malthouse and Co. start from in outcoaching the dogs coaching panel?

Greystache
25-03-2010, 11:47 AM
Thanks for the preview Comrade.

I'm feeling pretty confident about this one. I think Collingwood are front runners, and as you mentioned if our defensive pressure is up right from the start then we win and win comfortably. What we don’t want is to come out of the blocks slowly and allow them to get a run on early, we saw in the first game last year that once the crowd gets behind them they’re hard to slow down.

Also I’m not overly optimistic Hahn will play, I know it’s being talked up that he’ll be right, but he said only last week he thought he’d be unavailable for 4 weeks which would mean missing the first three rounds. Although that was only a few days after the incident so maybe he’s feeling a bit more confident about the injury now.

Mantis
25-03-2010, 12:04 PM
Great review and I hope we get the same result as last time. Would someone like to post the opposition coaches' strategies and pinpoint our strengths/weaknesses from its perspective.
When I go to matches I can follow our tactics some of the time (with the help of these previews) and give myself a headache in the process!

But being aware of the opposition tactics in advance would heighten my appreciation of all aspects of the game. So where do Malthouse and Co. start from in outcoaching the dogs coaching panel?

What are these weaknesses you talk about... We have none!!:D:D

Seriously though, Collingwood will try and win the clearances and spread the ball wide to their receiving types ie. Thomas, Didak, Lockyer, Davis, etc.. When we have the ball they will push up to try and deny us space to run and try and make us kick long to the contests where they will try and out-number us, and then try and burn us on the counter using their 'outriders'. Our job is deny them the ball (which we did effectively in rd 22) and stick to our defensive structure.

I guess we have always had the wood (so to speak) over Collingwood in the clearances so the addition of Ball & Jolly will been seen by them as important factors in curtailing our dominance. I guess from our perspective we could never really go long and direct with a heap of confidence, but Hall as shown thru the pre-season is able to take the odd catch in this situation.

It all makes for an interesting contest.

Cyberdoggie
25-03-2010, 12:46 PM
Great read Comrade,


One thing to note on the Collingwood defenders is against us they traditionally play quite dirty. Lot's of tugging jumpers and physical pressure to our smaller forwards.
In the 2 games last year i was screaming my brains out at the umpires for not giving us any free kicks to our forwards for the treatment they were receiving.

Will be interesting to see their tactics against Barry.

bornadog
25-03-2010, 01:05 PM
thanks a lot Comrade now all the reviews will have to reach your standard.:)

Last year first time round against the Pies caught us out through quick ball movement through the corridor. In round 22, we managed to deny them the ball by cutting off supply to the forward line. Amazingly in that game there was very little tackling with the dogs laying only 39 tackles compared to the season average of over 60. The dogs will play a similar game on Sunday, and will be too classy for the Pies.

Dogs by 32 points

The Bulldogs Bite
25-03-2010, 01:29 PM
As much as I rate Collingwood, this game is on our hand. We're a better football side with a better midfield and forward line. Apart from Swan, Collingwood don't have the 'complete' prototype midfielder of a Cooney, Griffen or Higgins who can play both inside and out. It's a real weapon to have and although Pendlebury, Davis and Didak are good players - they can be contained.

A lot depends on the availability of Johnson and Hahn. If they both miss, it's going to be difficult and we'll need a contribution from the twenty two men who step out onto the field. If they play and are OK - we should have far too much ability and flexibility for them up forward.

As a few have already noted, it's our defensive pressure which will either win or lose us the game. It's been impressive thus far in the pre-season but if it tapers off or we're half asleep at the start (Round 15 last year) then we'll find it difficult to peg them back.

O'Brien and Maxwell are two players we need to make accountable. Both play well against us and O'Brien has smashed Hill in recent times. Both are capable defenders and give great rebound when Collingwood are playing their best footy. Swan and Didak are two we need to keep in check in the midfield - can't afford them to run around picking up uncontested possessions at will like they did in Round 15. Davis is their main threat up forward and is a very slippery player, but one you have to play the percentages on. He carved us up badly in Round 15 and gave Harbrow a bath.

I think Boyd, Cooney, Griffen and Higgins can really put Collingwood to the sword through the midfield. Swan and Boyd are fairly even, with Dane perhaps a little ahead. Cooney, Griffen and Higgins have the potential to shame the black and white army if they play like they should/have been.

One thing I hope we're mindful of is indeed Presti. Solid record on Hall and with Maxwell/O'Brien/Shaw they'll be giving him a chop out as much as possible. Barry's been in great form and if he's in the best position - kick it to him. However - I really hope we don't blaze away like we have at times to him. Gia, Murphy, Aker, Hahn, Johnson, Hill, Higgins etc. are all very good options and it's been our medium forwards that have really troubled them in the past.

I just hope we don't change our game plan against them because we've got a big forward. Against some sides, our medium forwards are more effective. (IE. Collingwood) Against others, we'll really need Hall to contribute (Saints).

All in all - can't wait for this game. Should be filled to capacity and a real spectacle.

Mofra
25-03-2010, 02:00 PM
Re: Presti's record on Hall.

I know a few have mentioned that Presti has been solid on him, but I'm not that sold to be honest.
Since 2005 Hall has averaged 4.3 shots on goal against the Pies, which includes only one win (2005). This is during a low-scoring era where the Swans brought the ball in slowly which makes life difficult for him.
We are a higher scoring team, moving the ball faster, and Hall will be playing closer to goal. To me that means Hall should be able to at the very least replicate his form against Collingwood.

Yankee Hotel Foxtrot
25-03-2010, 02:07 PM
Wow, comrade, I mean this with no disrespect to previous contributors for Match previews (of which I am one), but your write-up was superlative. Easy & interesting to read with a fantastic array of information.

Talk about setting the bar high for the rest of us... So actually then, on second thoughts comrade - 'up yours' for making it harder for any mere mortals who follow in your footsteps trying to compose a match preview.:p

Sedat
25-03-2010, 03:42 PM
If I may be a little self-indulgent, I reckon Dogs supporters are the most knowledgable and informed club supporters in the competition, and sensational previews like this only confirm my belief. With a couple of exceptions, I can't think of too many media scribes that could come close to matching the quality of detail that Comrade has provided for us here - talk about raising the bar for the rest of the season.

Jolly v Hudson shapes as a most critical match-up - if we can nullify Jolly's outstanding clearance ability and prevent him from dangerously ghosting forward, we should ensure that Collingwood's myriad of outside mids do not win their share of the ball. Hopefully Hudson's fanatical desire for repeat efforts will pressure Jolly all day and prevent him from asserting control at the stoppages. TBB touched on a great point about Hall and using him wisely against a team like the Pies - their defenders zone off like there's no tomorrow so I hope that we can spot up the free targets inside forward 50 that will invariably pop up.

LostDoggy
25-03-2010, 04:14 PM
Umm now, do I bask in the euphoria or shut that lid on tight???? I'm going the first - Bulldogs by 25 points in a sensational, sell-out game :D

LostDoggy
25-03-2010, 04:21 PM
Amazing write up Comrade.
You wait all summer for the footy to begin, and what a game to kick things off .
I have a feeling it will be well worth the wait.
30+ degrees, drinking beer in the sun! does it get any better than this ?

I really rate collingwood but reckon we will get home by 20 points after a close first half.

Happy Days
25-03-2010, 04:39 PM
Absolute top shelf write up Comrade, thanks for that.

In regard to Presti v. Hall, Presti took Welsh last time, and even though Presti beat Welsh, we still won. I don't think anyone could make the point of Welsh being better than Hall, plus we have many, many other avenues to goal, so Presti's negating ability will not be much of a factor for mine.

Also, regarding the inclusion of Jolly, we were able to win the battle in the middle last time without our no. 1 big, so the differential in the ruck may not be as big a concern as it is made out to be.

Given recent form, as well as the respective talent levels, there's no reason why we should not be able to comfortably win this match, around the 5-6 goal mark is about right.

LostDoggy
25-03-2010, 05:05 PM
Great preview. Can't think of a better way to start the season than Johnson playing his 350th (hopefully) and beating Collingwood in the process. It's a win win :)

BulldogBelle
26-03-2010, 07:04 AM
Huge effort Comrade!

As l gaze into to my crystal ball it tells me........

We SHOULD win but the Pies COULD win.

This will be a tougth close game. But l think we will run over them in the last quater.

LostDoggy
26-03-2010, 12:42 PM
Dogs to win by 28.

First goal: Barry Hall.

BOG: Ryan Griffin. :)

Charlie the Wonder Dog
26-03-2010, 12:46 PM
Agree with (mostly) everyone that we should account for them relatively comfortably.

For mine, what has stood out to me when i have watched us v Collingwood after the last three years is 'focus' and 'running power'.

The Woods are a lot like Geelong in that instance, they are a very well disciplined side who have a very consistent output (focus) across all 4 quarters. We have tended to wax and wane a little against the Woods and Geelong - this has lead to us having a mountain to climb in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

However, against both these teams we really show them up for our ability to run out the last quarter.

I have perceived a maturing in our levels of focus from the start of games over the last half of a season (eagles came excluded) and so I am very confident of our ability to remain unbeaten against the Woods and Geelong in 2010.:D

LostDoggy
26-03-2010, 10:50 PM
I'm predicting a cracking game between two top 4 sides. Great summary Comrade so thanks for the read.

Dry Rot
28-03-2010, 12:10 AM
Excellent preview which continues the recent high standard and eclipses the preview you'll read from the "experts".

Question: I read that you're expecting 31 degrees tomorrow - will the heat and our superior fitness NB late in the game be a significant advantage for us, or have the Pies been doing some expensive altitude, under water and extra-terrestial training too?

LostDoggy
28-03-2010, 01:09 AM
Question: I read that you're expecting 31 degrees tomorrow - will the heat and our superior fitness NB late in the game be a significant advantage for us, or have the Pies been doing some expensive altitude, under water and extra-terrestial training too?

It's irrelevant what training they've been doing, when it gets hot like that it becomes all about heart, and Boydy, Crossy, Hargrave etc. have more heart in their little toe than the likes of Dale Thomas, Cloke, Medhurst and Anthony will ever have. We just have to come to play and watch them fold like a pack of cards. The only danger is if we're caught with our pants down or if we are half-asleep for a couple of quarters. We'll still come at them at some point, the question is if we'll run out of time. If we come to play for four quarters, the result will be a 30+ point win.

hujsh
30-03-2010, 01:56 PM
It's irrelevant what training they've been doing, when it gets hot like that it becomes all about heart, and Boydy, Crossy, Hargrave etc. have more heart in their little toe than the likes of Dale Thomas, Cloke, Medhurst and Anthony will ever have. We just have to come to play and watch them fold like a pack of cards. The only danger is if we're caught with our pants down or if we are half-asleep for a couple of quarters. We'll still come at them at some point, the question is if we'll run out of time. If we come to play for four quarters, the result will be a 30+ point win.

Prophetic prediction there Lantern.