Round 3 Preview - Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn

[boydogs]

2010 AFL Season
Round 3 – Match Preview

Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks

Etihad Stadium, Sunday 11 April, 2.10pm
Bulldogs Home Game

When Last They Met

Round 2, 2010 NAB Cup, Etihad Stadium

Western Bulldogs 1.15.12.111 def Hawthorn 0.7.12.54

A clear win to the Dogs after the Hawks looked impressive first up against Richmond, whilst the Dogs had to come from behind to beat the Lions on a wet Manuka Oval. Ignited by Hall's first game in the tri-colours, on the way to 6 goals in 2.5 quarters. Midfield dominance and an open forward line were the key

Round 14, 2009 Home and Away season, Etihad Stadium

Western Bulldogs 19.19.133 def Hawthorn 6.9.45

One of the highs of the 2009 season for us, and lows of the season for the Hawks. Kept them goalless in the first half. Did everything right, a template for good footy with excellent skills, marking, running and pressure

2008 Qualifying Final, MCG

Hawthorn 18.19.127 def Western Bulldogs 11.10.76

After winning 13.5 of our first 15 games, we struggled in the lead up to the finals and were unable to match the Hawks on their way to the 2008 flag. Franklin unstoppable kicking 8 goals. The Dogs had more kicks, handballs, marks, hitouts and frees yet went down by 51 points.

Preamble

After a scintillating NAB cup to break a 40-year silverware drought, the Bulldogs have failed to dazzle in the same manner in the first 2 weeks of the regular season. A disappointing first up loss to Collingwood took the gloss off the NAB cup win, and whilst they have squared the ledger with a 12 goal win over Richmond, they will be keen to further atone against a genuine contender

Hawthorn are also 1-1, easily accounting for Melbourne first up before a gallant loss to the Cats, leading at each break before going down by 9 points. They will be keen to bounce back from the loss and show they are a genuine threat for the flag this season after a disappointing 2009.

Selection Table – Bulldogs

Already the debate has started, with Johnson, Ward and Eagleton possibilities to return for the Dogs.

Johnno managed to play his 350th against the Pies in round 1 after missing all of the NAB cup, after originally aiming to play in the final match. The Pies defenders were damaging on the rebound, raising concerns over Johnson's early return and the defensive pressure applied by the Dogs in general.

He was again selected for round 2, with Hill being dropped for Moles, before a late withdrawal due to flu, calf and achilles concerns saved Hill, who managed 3 goals against the Tigers.

The fact that Johnson was selected for both rounds 1 and 2 despite a lack of match fitness suggests he may again take Hill's spot this week. Ward and Eagleton may need to prove themselves at Williamstown before Moles, Picken or Everitt are excluded as all played solid games last week.

The defense seemed to improve last week after several players were affected by flu in round 1. Williams seemed more settled, and should improve with each match. Special mention to Lindsay Gilbee, whose skills were back on display.

Minson has had a relatively poor start to the year, whilst still rucking well he has not been as effective around the ground and has been giving away too many free kicks. This is understandable given his disrupted pre-season, however the question remains whether it is best to leave him in and let him improve, give Jordan Roughead a taste and allow Will to improve at Williamstown or try a part-time ruck option such as Everitt to improve on forward line mobility

Using our 2 dominant ruckmen should set us up to dominate the clearances and hence get the upper hand against the Hawks, who are currently using midfielders to relieve Brett Renouf in the ruck. Alternately, this is certainly a week where Everitt would not be exposed, and could in fact beat his opponent for hitouts whilst being a better option around the ground and resting forward

Selection Table – Hawks

The Hawks will be forced into several changes this week, with further injury and suspension concerns from the Geelong game. Osbourne is likely to be suspended, and possibly Shiels and maybe even Guerra as well. Hooper has done a hamstring and will miss, Lewis sprained his ankle but is likely to play at this stage.

Several youngsters may be brought in to the side, including Moss, Kayler-Thompson, Suckling and possible debutant Lisle as a ruck option.

The Bulldogs definitely have an advantage here, with fewer key contributors unavailable and better depth to cover them with. It is certainly a luxury for us to consider playing Johnson, Ward and Eagleton, all regular starters in 2009, at Williamstown to build form.

Key Match Ups

Picken vs Bateman

Chance is a punishing outside player, and Liam certainly has a role in the side this week to keep him quiet. You can't afford to let a player of his ilk run free with Franklin and Roughead to kick to, midfield pressure must be applied to ensure our defense has a chance (sic) to spoil

Hudson/Minson vs Renouf/???

We should dominate in the ruck, and must ensure taps to advantage to setup our mids to dominate the clearances as a result. Skipper would be disappointed in being unavailable, after a stellar 2009 behind Hudson and Minson to now see Luke Hodge et al rucking where he could be

Boyd v Mitchell

A head-to-head midfield clash, between two quality players. Boyd needs to work together with the rucks to ensure he is given a head start against Mitchell, which will go a long way to ensuring a Bulldog win

Franklin vs Lake

Buddy is still wrestling rather than leading to win the ball, which should help Brian continue to dominate him as in previous games

Roughead v Morris

Tough matchup, Roughead has a fantastic leap and arm extension that Dale can't compete with, but I still don't trust Tom Williams on leading forwards. Midfield pressure required to give Dale a chance.

Hall v Gilham

I doubt Hawthorn will lead with Josh Gibson on Barry again as in the NAB cup. Gilham did not play that game and will probably get first go. Look for the Hawks to duplicate the triple team strategy against him used by other teams and take advantage of our lack of crumbers when the ball hits the ground. Aker, Gia or Higgins need to start reading the ball off these contests

Hahn v Gibson

Hopefully Mitch can continue his good form against the Tigers into this match, but drop the goal kicking inaccuracy. I don't rate Josh as a pure defender, and hopefully Mitch can take advantage of that

The X-Factor

The selection table for the Bulldogs. Will we see Roughead debut, Everitt as a part-time ruckman or will we persist with Will, and try and use our ruck stocks to dominate in the middle? Will we have faith in Moles, Hill, Picken and Everitt over Johnson, Ward and Eagleton and send our regulars to Williamstown to regain form? Are the retirement home forward line critics right, and is there anything we can do about it?

The answers will impact on how this weeks game plays out, and reveal our overall strategy for the season

The Verdict

The Bulldogs have immense expectation and pressure for spots - there are very few weaknesses around the ground, and each player should be desperate to perform. The Hawks are not as strong in the ruck and in defense, which could lead to the Dogs getting a run-on at various stages. Hawthorn are a quality side, but I expect them to fall short this week

Dogs by 20 points :)

[Mantis]

Good preview gogriff.

If as suggested Williams doesn't play on Roughead or Franklin is there a place in the side for him? If we need a back-up surely Everitt can fill this role as he supplies the team with more attacking flair.

Cooney & Griffen were in very good form on the weekend, how do you think Hawthorn will try and negate their influence?

[Go_Dogs]

Good preview gogriff.

If as suggested Williams doesn't play on Roughead or Franklin is there a place in the side for him?

Agreed - good job on the preview gogriff.


I think Williams must play, and I'd be playing him on Roughead, at least initially, and give him a chance their. Morris is of course a very good option, and can cover if Williams is being beaten soundly. More football the better for Tom, so he just has to play for mine.

[LostDoggy]

Great write up gogriff

I think our backs against their forwards is going to be the interesting thing to watch in this game. I think Lake, Morris and Williams can man-up on Franklin and Roughead. Its just going to be how Eade wants to play it.

Does he roll the dice and play Williams on Franklin or Roughead so Morris can play on Rioli or Brown (if he plays forward)? Or does he try to get Lake as a loose man in defense?

Or does he play it abit more safe and go with what has worked before, Lake on Franklin and Morris on Roughead? Then try and find a match-up for Williams (maybe Brown if he plays forward).

[LostDoggy]

Reading Lake's comments over the past week, it would appear that he will get Buddy.

That's a bit disappointing for mine. Clearly, Williams is being set for the CHB position and I would like to see how he goes on Buddy allowing Lake to take up his customary role at FB. This also allows Morris and Hargrave to stay in their set positons to tackle Rioli, Brown etc.

I would be inclined to give Tom the responsibility of going with his role rather than removing him each time we come up against a quality CHF.

In my view he has the attributes to go with him.

[always right]

Great write up gogriff

I think our backs against their forwards is going to be the interesting thing to watch in this game. I think Lake, Morris and Williams can man-up on Franklin and Roughead. Its just going to be how Eade wants to play it.

Does he roll the dice and play Williams on Franklin or Roughead so Morris can play on Rioli or Brown (if he plays forward)? Or does he try to get Lake as a loose man in defense?

Or does he play it abit more safe and go with what has worked before, Lake on Franklin and Morris on Roughead? Then try and find a match-up for Williams (maybe Brown if he plays forward).

I don't like Williams playing last line in defence...panics close to goal too much for my liking. His asset is his running ability so play him further up the ground on the third tall (Morton?)

Sorry for stating the bleeding obvious but the winners will be team that get the upper hand in the middle. Don't fancy our changes if the Hawthorn midfield get dominance here...particularly Mitchell. Big task for Boydy this week. Going forward we should use Tom Murphy's opponent as much as possible. He is their defensive weak link.

[Mofra]

We have the least fasionable, most workmanlike ruck division in the competition, and personally I rate both Will & Huddo individually as better ruckmen than Renouf. If ever there was a case for physicality at a contest, it is in the ruck this week.
As much as I rate Roughy, I want Will in this week to attack the body.

I would like to think Williams will get a crack at Buddy at some stage too - we have rotated players through the Hawk forwards in the past effectively.

[EasternWest]

We have the least fasionable, most workmanlike ruck division in the competition, and personally I rate both Will & Huddo individually as better ruckmen than Renouf. If ever there was a case for physicality at a contest, it is in the ruck this week. As much as I rate Roughy, I want Will in this week to attack the body.

I would like to think Williams will get a crack at Buddy at some stage too - we have rotated players through the Hawk forwards in the past effectively.

Agree entirely. A key point.

Great preview gogriff!

[LostDoggy]

The past 2 games we have fumbled and have been making poor decisions with the ball. It's vital we get it right this week, especially against the Hawthorn zone. If we don't Buddy and Roughead will have a day out.

[bornadog]

Lake will take on Buddy and Williams to go with Roughead. We don't want Morris on these monsters, he will once more be beaten for height.

Lake gave Buddy a bath last year, and he will be confident to do it again.

[aker39]

Osborne - 2 games, 1 with early plea
Sheilds - 2 games, 1 with early plea
Guerra - no case to answer

[Go_Dogs]

Osborne - 2 games, 1 with early plea
Sheilds - 2 games, 1 with early plea
Guerra - no case to answer

Seems about right, but I thought Guerra would cop a week for his effort too. Is that how you read it aker39, given the "pinning" interpretation?

[chef]

Osborne - 2 games, 1 with early plea
Sheilds - 2 games, 1 with early plea
Guerra - no case to answer

Osbourne(seems to always play well against us) and Shiels will be missed by the Hawks.

[Cyberdoggie]

We have in the past tried Lake as the stay at home extra defender.
Morris might get Roughead and Williams could be given Franklin once again, leaving Brian as an extra to help cover these two. Alternatively he might drift forward at times like he did against Richmond.

Brian is quite underated when left on his own.


I think we have got Hawthorn covered in all areas. As long as we come out to play i think we will be victorious.

[Rocco Jones]

Osbourne(seems to always play well against us) and Shiels will be missed by the Hawks.

I was going to say that but decided to look some stats up first. Bobby smashed him last time we played but I guess not too many Hawks did well that night. Happy to see Osborne out.

This is the type of game where having Hall will really help us out.

[chef]

I was going to say that but decided to look some stats up first. Bobby smashed him last time we played but I guess not too many Hawks did well that night. Happy to see Osborne out.

This is the type of game where having Hall will really help us out.

I must be thinking of the Qual final in 2008, he ended up with 4 goals that night.

[always right]

Seems about right, but I thought Guerra would cop a week for his effort too. Is that how you read it aker39, given the "pinning" interpretation?

I think what saved Guerra is it was the one continuous motion. Would have been in serious trouble had he pinned the arms and then slung him in a separate action.
Just my two cents worth.

[Mantis]

I must be thinking of the Qual final in 2008, he ended up with 4 goals that night.

Yep, he got a hold of Hargrave when we were mounting some sort of fightback.

[aker39]

Seems about right, but I thought Guerra would cop a week for his effort too. Is that how you read it aker39, given the "pinning" interpretation?

I posted in another thread that I thought he may have been in trouble, but the MRP seemed to agree with Always Right.


I think what saved Guerra is it was the one continuous motion. Would have been in serious trouble had he pinned the arms and then slung him in a separate action.
Just my two cents worth.

[boydogs]

Good preview gogriff.

If as suggested Williams doesn't play on Roughead or Franklin is there a place in the side for him? If we need a back-up surely Everitt can fill this role as he supplies the team with more attacking flair.

Cooney & Griffen were in very good form on the weekend, how do you think Hawthorn will try and negate their influence?

Thanks Mantis. Ordinarily I would use Williams as a shutdown CHB, so on Buddy, but he is Brian's bunny the way he plays him with his wrestling. I am happy with Williams as a shutdown player on most CHF's and then using Lake on the 3rd tall, floating in for marks.

This week, I think we could get away with not playing him but continuity is so important I would leave him in against whoever the Hawks decide to field as a 3rd tall, and maybe rotate him with Brian onto Buddy if he is having a quiet one to allow Lake to be more attacking. Fingers crossed this means Everitt plays further up the ground, as I see him as an attacking player.

Re. Cooney and Griffen, the Hawks will rely on winning the contested ball in close. Mitchell is not to be under rated, he would probably look better in a side with dominant rucks than he does already. Cooney will no doubt get the number 1 tag (Lewis?) as per usual, but if we can win not just hitouts but taps to advantage in the ruck they will find it tough to compete

[LostDoggy]

We have been able to kick quite high scores with our last few encounters and I think our extra days break and Hawks having a tougher game will see us continue this trend and win the match by 30~ points

[The Adelaide Connection]

Excellent preview. I consistently find that the previews on here are more analytical and thorough than the ones in the mainstream media. No suprises that you hear rumours of Journos scouring the forums. I would like to see forumites (from across the main forums) withold their previews till last minute for a few weeks and see if a few mainstream journos fall apart a bit :D

I think that a lot of respect has to be given to Hawthorn for their performance on the weekend but, that said, they were pretty awful most of last year and were still able to turn it on against Geelong late in the season.

Their next four or five weeks will give us a better indication (especially the WB, Collingwood, and WC at Subi games), but I don't think they have addressed any of their list concerns to have the swagger to think they will be comfortably lodged in the 8. I think they will be involved in a three or four way scrap for 8th.

In our current form we will probably make hard work of it, but at our best we should be able to smash them in the rucks, beat their midfield and expose their patchy defence. Their forward line is obviously their strength but, like last year, winning in the middle should mean that it is a moot point (and our defence is far from useless!).

If we can play footy at even 3/4 of our best this will be a blowout. But on current form I would think the dogs by 15.

[LostDoggy]

Reading Lake's comments over the past week, it would appear that he will get Buddy.

That's a bit disappointing for mine. Clearly, Williams is being set for the CHB position and I would like to see how he goes on Buddy allowing Lake to take up his customary role at FB. This also allows Morris and Hargrave to stay in their set positons to tackle Rioli, Brown etc.

I would be inclined to give Tom the responsibility of going with his role rather than removing him each time we come up against a quality CHF.

In my view he has the attributes to go with him.

I fully agree. Williams has to take Franklin first up. He has beaten him before and needs to do it again. He has all the physical attributes to do this and is why he is in the team.

This will then allow Lake / Morris to take Roughead / Brown and Everitt to be played in a more attacking position - which is where i think we will get much more use out of him!

[LostDoggy]

The problem with saying Williams has beaten Franklin before is that in 2008 Franklin was hitting the ball on the lead almost ever time the came towards him. Their midfield was stronger so they had more time to spot him up, and with his long arms and athleticism he became almost "unstoppable".

Williams was the perfect match up for him. He had the size, speed, and athleticism to run with him. The only thing he didnt have was footy smarts. But in that game it didnt prove to be Williams un-doing.

In 2009 Clarkson and Hawthorn decided to bulk Franklin up and he lost alot of athleticism, so he became a body-on-body player which was the perfect match-up for Lake and less so for Williams.

I didnt see the Geelong Hawthorn game but i did see the Bulldogs Hawthorn NAB cup this year. So it still remains to be seen for me what Franklin is going to be like in 2010. In the NAB Franklin looked alot better than 2009 (abit better than the 1 goal to his name suggests).

I said it earlier in the thread, but i'd like to see Lake start on him and see how everything goes, then make the call of if and when Williams goes onto him.

[LostDoggy]

As usual, the key to beating the zone will be getting first possession, keeping it, then piercing the zone quickly with run from behind and accurate long kicks. It's what we are doing when we don't have the ball that will be crucial to maintaining possession. As well, our skills will have to go up another level on the last 2 weeks. It will be interesting to see just where we are at, given that the Richmond game told us nothing and the Collingwood game had ill players competing for us. Thus far, we have seemed off the pace for a top 4 side.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

We'll rotate Lake, Williams and Morris on Buddy at different times. He plays a few different roles during a game so when he plays deep, I'd expect Lake to go to him. When Buddy is playing further up the field I think Williams and Morris will share the duties.

One thing to note is how Franklin decides to play this week. He was criticised about not leading last week v Geelong. Against Lake, he'll be killed if he doesn't get on his bike. It's happened ever since the '08 QF so I think Franklin's tactics will be a lot different to what we've seen. I expect him to be constantly trying to burn Lake on the lead, in which case a Morris/Williams type will be a better suit. Having the likes of Cross dropping back will be a key as well.

Hawthorn are missing Sewell, Burgoyne, Taylor, Shiels, Osborne, Young and possibly Lewis. Realistically we should beat them by 4+ goals despite some of their young players looking OK. It's an important game in that we can remind ourselves that we are capable of some very good footy, despite our indifferent first two weeks.

I'm very confident heading into this game purely because of the 'positives' resting on our side. Their injuries, their short day break and our expected turn around form. We should dominate their rucks and I'd be hoping to see us handle the ball much better.

If the Hawks can field their best 22 later in the season, they'll be much more difficult to beat.

Dogs by 34 points.

[boydogs]

Great post TBB. Summed up the Buddy situation well, which will help determine the rest of our defensive structure. Osborne and Shiels have been suspended, Shiels challenged and failed

[LostDoggy]

I, like others on this forum, are impressed on a weekly basis with the quality and knowledge our Woofer's have! Great preview - thanks!

It will be interesting to see where Eade sees Tommygun playing this week. I would like to see him take on Buddy (aka bighead) as (stating the obvious), the more experience he has, the better he will become. He has all the attributes of an athletic KP player and I believe we need to persevere and give him game time on the "biggies". I guess the only negative could be that if he is getting smashed, his confidence take a beating. :confused:

[boydogs]

I, like others on this forum, are impressed on a weekly basis with the quality and knowledge our Woofer's have! Great preview - thanks!

It will be interesting to see where Eade sees Tommygun playing this week. I would like to see him take on Buddy (aka bighead) as (stating the obvious), the more experience he has, the better he will become. He has all the attributes of an athletic KP player and I believe we need to persevere and give him game time on the "biggies". I guess the only negative could be that if he is getting smashed, his confidence take a beating. :confused:

Thanks MG. I agree on Williams, with the exception that I would start Brian on him to try and prevent Tommygun from getting beaten, and only move him on if Buddy is struggling

[AndrewP6]

Great reports and good reading. Spewing I won't be at this game, I'm away playing basketball. Will tune into radio on the way home, and record the replay.

[Mantis]

Thanks MG. I agree on Williams, with the exception that I would start Brian on him to try and prevent Tommygun from getting beaten, and only move him on if Buddy is struggling

So if Buddy is giving Lake a hiding we won't move Williams onto him as the task is too difficult??... Time to take the kiddy gloves off.

[Go_Dogs]

So if Buddy is giving Lake a hiding we won't move Williams onto him as the task is too difficult??... Time to take the kiddy gloves off.

I'd really like to see Williams and Morris take the big key forwards, and let Lake do what he does best, zone off and help out 3rd man up.

If Franklin is giving Tommy a bath, or playing his stationary-out-bodying approach, then we throw Lake onto him.

[Mofra]

In 2009 Clarkson and Hawthorn decided to bulk Franklin up and he lost alot of athleticism, so he became a body-on-body player which was the perfect match-up for Lake and less so for Williams.
Franklin was quiet last week until he started leading. Franklin on the lead is still a better player than the Franklin who tries to compete purely on bodywork alone.

[bornadog]

I'd really like to see Williams and Morris take the big key forwards, and let Lake do what he does best, zone off and help out 3rd man up.

If Franklin is giving Tommy a bath, or playing his stationary-out-bodying approach, then we throw Lake onto him.

It will be interesting to see the match ups when Roughead (Jarrad) goes into the ruck. Last year in our 88 point thrashing of Hawthorn, Lake played extremely well against Buddy, so I would go with that match up again. In my opinion, Morris MUST NOT PLAY THE GORILLAS he has to take on the more mid size players. Interesting though, on last nights show THe Bounce, Roughead thought Morris would play on him.

[Chicago1]

Sadly this will be my last game until September. It's been great going to training and see the boys. Have most of their autographs. Rodney was wearing the Chicago Cubs cap I gave him at the Geelong/Hawthorn match on Monday and the TV camera's found him. My nephew is thrilled that the Cubs cap was seen around Australia. However, they have lost thier first two games of the season. Another long one for us Cubs fans, unlike the great season the Bulldogs will have. I can feel it in my old bones. Off to the club in a little while for one last visit then my last radio show live from Melbourne. The time has just flown by. I'm off back to cold and possibly snowy Chicago on Monday. I'll be back in September for sure!

[aker39]

Off to the club in a little while for one last visit then my last radio show live from Melbourne.

What time are you on?

[bornadog]

What time are you on?

Jim is on 774 every Friday somewhere between 5.30 to 6pm giving his weekly tips.

[boydogs]

So if Buddy is giving Lake a hiding we won't move Williams onto him as the task is too difficult??... Time to take the kiddy gloves off.


I'd really like to see Williams and Morris take the big key forwards, and let Lake do what he does best, zone off and help out 3rd man up.

If Franklin is giving Tommy a bath, or playing his stationary-out-bodying approach, then we throw Lake onto him.

Sorry guys I'm not convinced. I don't want to start a 20-odd gamer KPD with no AFL background on the 2008 coleman medallist.

Lake as a backup option is like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted, taking out insurance after you have already been robbed, buying anti-virus software after you have already been infected etc. - yes it's probably a good idea as you know there is a likelihood of the event you are trying to prevent occurring as it just happened, but I think we can be a bit smarter than that and anticipate that Tommygun may not be up to the task if Buddy is 'on'.

It's no blight that you need your best AA backman on one of the comp's best forwards, and that a relative new comer isn't ready yet

[alwaysadog]

We have the least fasionable, most workmanlike ruck division in the competition...

Most workmanlike and it seems the most effective; this week we have been cited as having the ruck division with the highest percentage of taps to advantage in the comp. So much for fashion

It constantly amazes me how some ruckmen become the media darlings, yet their inadequacies are obvious. If they don't give their mids a good supply they can leap tall buildings and run faster than speeding trains while basking in media glory.... but their team won't win.

[azabob]

Most workmanlike and it seems the most effective; this week we have been cited as having the ruck division with the highest percentage of taps to advantage in the comp. So much for fashion

It constantly amazes me how some ruckmen become the media darlings, yet their inadequacies are obvious. If they don't give their mids a good supply they can leap tall buildings and run faster than speeding trains while basking in media glory.... but their team won't win.

A great simple post alwaysadog.
Couldn't agree more.