2010 Brownlow Medal

[Scorlibo]

Okay I know it's very early in the season, but I just thought I'd get the ball rolling on Brownlow talk:p. This year I'm taking a more systematic approach to my Brownlow tips; I've developed a model which calculates the probability of a player getting 3, 2 or 1 Brownlow votes given the player's disposals tally, goals tally, Supercoach score and number of votes given to them by the two opposing coaches (AFLCA Award). From the percentiles I approximate the average of all outcomes, or in more basic terms, the most likely vote tally of the player (except its in decimal form!). I thought some might be interested in my leaderboard to date:

1 - J Brown - 6.2 votes
2 - N Riewoldt - 4.57 votes
3 - M Barlow - 4.32 votes
4 - G Ablett - 4.11 votes
5 - B McGlynn - 4.07 votes
6 - L Hodge - 3.05 votes
7 - B Harvey - 3.05 votes
8 - A Sandilands - 2.78 votes
9 - K Cornes - 2.64 votes
10 - R Griffen - 2.53 votes
11 - R O'Keefe - 2.52 votes
12 - S Gilbert - 2.49 votes
13 - L Montagna - 2.18 votes
14 - A Carrazzo - 2.14 votes
15 - D Swan - 2.12 votes

With Riewoldt injured, Barlow a first year player, McGlynn unlikely to continue his form and Hodge and Harvey known non-pollers, you'd have to think Brown and Ablett are the best bets from here, although it's extremely early. Sandilands looms as a good bet if Freo continue their form, and Montagna and Swan are again around the mark in the early parts of the season. And Griff? Well, who knows! For those interested, I have the top 5 doggie Brownlow pollers as:

1 - R Griffen - 2.53
2 - A Cooney - 1.93
3 - M Boyd - 1.63
4 - L Gilbee - 1.44
5 - M Hahn - 0.73

I can update this every 3 weeks if anyone is keen.

But for general discussion,

1) Who is your tip?
2) Who is your smokie?
3) Who will win the Doggies count?!

For me:
1) Leigh Montagna
2) Stephen Hill
3) Adam Cooney

Cheers guys.:)

[LostDoggy]

My tip: Adam Cooney
Smokie: Chris Knights
Dogs: Adam Cooney

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Fantastic work there Scorlibo. Will definitely be interested to read further analysis in a few weeks time.

My tip: Gary Ablett - I can't tip against him. His game v Fremantle was outstanding.
Smokie: Aaron Davey - Thought he was BOG v Collingwood.
Dogs: Adam Cooney - Looks in pretty good touch and we know he's a proven vote getter.

[GVGjr]

My tip: Adam Cooney
Smokie: Chris Knights
Dogs: Adam Cooney


Isn't Chris Knights out injured?

[bornadog]

I think Griffen will poll well this year.

[boydogs]

Tip: Adam Cooney
Smokie: Shaun Higgins
Dogs: Adam Cooney

[chef]

Tip-Cooney
Smokie-Rioli
Dogs-Cooney

[The Coon Dog]

Scorlibo, good read & a great amount must go into it each week.

One area I would have a query on though is the Coaches votes. They may look at someone who does a specific job, as an example Dale Morris might negate his direct opponent & keep him to a handful of kicks & not get too many himself, but he's done the team thing & is recognised by his coach. In that example I can't see the umpires reflecting it.

And yes, please keep us updated regularly. Be interesting to see at the end of the season how you went.

Tip: Sam Mitchell
Smokie: Aaron Davey
Dogs: Adam Cooney

[Go_Dogs]

Isn't Chris Knights out injured?

Played his first game for the year on the weekend, and obviously lacked a little bit of conditioning. He was OK though, and should start to really pick up his form over the next couple of weeks.



Tip: Goddard
Smokie: O'Keefe
Bulldogs: Cooney

[Scorlibo]

Scorlibo, good read & a great amount must go into it each week.

One area I would have a query on though is the Coaches votes. They may look at someone who does a specific job, as an example Dale Morris might negate his direct opponent & keep him to a handful of kicks & not get too many himself, but he's done the team thing & is recognised by his coach. In that example I can't see the umpires reflecting it.

And yes, please keep us updated regularly. Be interesting to see at the end of the season how you went.

Tip: Sam Mitchell
Smokie: Aaron Davey
Dogs: Adam Cooney

Thanks TCD, a lot of research went into it before the season started, and then a lot of time was spent formatting and formulating the excel spreadsheet. But now I simply have to plug the results in each week, which doesn't take too long.:cool:

I know what you're saying, and I agree, but I feel the the system is a bit flawed without the coaches votes. I have the disposals/goals in there for the raw quantity of a player's performance, I have the supercoach scores to measure effectiveness/damage with those possessions/goals, and then the Coaches votes are in there because sometimes stats alone (however technical in the case of SC) are misleading, and the coaches seem to have the most direct perception of the game outside of perhaps the umpires, so they tend to balance it out.

For example Ablett's performance in Round 2 was not given any coaches votes, even though he amassed a game high 38 disposals and scored 128 supercoach points (second highest). So under the system he was third or fourth in line for votes, and not first as disposals and supercoach score would suggest. The main thing to note is that under the system, the players most likely to poll the 3 and 2 votes will be the players who do well in every category. So dour defenders who get coaches votes will still not have a very good average voting outcome because they typically won't do well in the statistical areas.

ps. Sam Mitchell is a good tip I reckon, with the Hawks set to do well. Buddy looks down on form, Sewell is coming off an injury and Hodge is a bad poller, so he doesn't look to have much competition for votes. Plus he is himself is quite a good poller.

[The Coon Dog]

ps. Sam Mitchell is a good tip I reckon, with the Hawks set to do well. Buddy looks down on form, Sewell is coming off an injury and Hodge is a bad poller, so he doesn't look to have much competition for votes. Plus he is himself is quite a good poller.

11 games for 31 votes when he won the Liston Trophy is testament to that.

[LostDoggy]

http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/ii283/brightblue462/griflow.png

[LostDoggy]

http://i267.photobucket.com/albums/ii283/brightblue462/griflow.png

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v152/Edgecutiona/IMG_0213.jpg

Great minds think alike ;)

[LostDoggy]

Isn't Chris Knights out injured?


Played his first game for the year on the weekend, and obviously lacked a little bit of conditioning. He was OK though, and should start to really pick up his form over the next couple of weeks.

What he said.

I think he will poll very well this season.

[LostDoggy]

Medal: Cooney
Smokey: Sandilands
Dogs: Cooney

[LostDoggy]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v152/Edgecutiona/IMG_0213.jpg

Great minds think alike ;)


I think you think twice as much as me, looking at that.

[Doggy]

A bit each way. Not fussed, as long as one of them wins.



Tue 9/2/10
AFL Brownlow Medal Winner 2010 (1-Aug-2010) COONEY Adam(WBDG) $20.00 @ 51.00 Accepted

Sun 14/3/10
AFL Brownlow Medal Winner 2010 (1-Aug-2010) GRIFFEN Ryan (WBDG) $10.00 @ 101.00 Accepted

[LostDoggy]

Tip: Ryan Griffen
Smokie: Luke Hodge
Top Dog: Ryan Griffen

[Scorlibo]

An update on my leaderboard after Round 5:

1 - G Ablett - 6.82 votes
2 - J Brown - 6.20 votes
3 - M Barlow - 5.24 votes
4 - L Hodge - 4.92 votes
5 - A Sandilands - 4.89 votes
6 - R Griffen - 4.59 votes
7 - N Riewoldt - 4.57 votes
8 - B McGlynn - 4.07 votes
9 - J Brennan - 3.94 votes
10 - C Judd - 3.73 votes
11 - B Moloney - 3.64 votes
12 - M Pavlich - 3.61 votes
13 - D Bradshaw - 3.25 votes
14 - D Wells - 3.19 votes
15 - B Harvey - 3.05 votes

Bulldogs top 5:

1 - R Griffen - 4.59 votes
2 - D Giansiracusa - 2.06 votes
3 - A Cooney - 1.93 votes
4 - L Gilbee - 1.64 votes
5 - M Boyd - 1.63 votes

Griff has maintained his place on the leaderboard after a great performance against Adelaide, while Ablett has taken the lead and Judd is into the top ten despite having missed the first 3 games. The leaderboard is starting to take a bit of shape, with the first 6 looking like solid bets for the rest of the season, and Judd fast catching them. There are a bunch of Magpies just outside of that list (Pendlebury, Didak, Swan) who could all pose a threat if they disinguish themselves from their teammates. Coons is within touch and a good performance or two in the next couple of weeks could see him join Griff on the leaderboard:).

[LostDoggy]

A bit each way. Not fussed, as long as one of them wins.



Tue 9/2/10
AFL Brownlow Medal Winner 2010 (1-Aug-2010) COONEY Adam(WBDG) $20.00 @ 51.00 Accepted

Sun 14/3/10
AFL Brownlow Medal Winner 2010 (1-Aug-2010) GRIFFEN Ryan (WBDG) $10.00 @ 101.00 Accepted

Yeah I got cooney $20 @ $21.00
and Missy $10 @ $101 :cool:

[EasternWest]

I always put money on a Dogs player before the season starts. In 08 I meant to put $50 on Cooney, but for some reason only $20 at $21. It was still a nice surprise Brownlow night!

[Scorlibo]

A bit of a late update on my Brownlow system leaderboard, but here is the top 20 after Round 15:

AVERAGE OUTCOME

1 - D Swan - 20.18
2 - L Hodge - 17.47
3 - G Ablett - 14.45
4 - P Chapman - 13.36
5 - L Montagna - 13.29
6 - B Goddard - 12.53
7 - M Barlow - 12.09
8 - C Judd - 11.93
9 - A Sandilands - 11.87
10 - N Dal Santo - 9.87
11 - J Bartel - 9.72
12 - M Pavlich - 9.69
13 - J Selwood - 8.93
14 - B Harvey - 8.66
15 - L Hayes - 8.63
16 - A Cooney - 8.6
17 - S Pendlebury - 8.45
18 - N Malceski - 8.41
19 - S Thompson - 8.33
20 - B Lake - 8.1

PHANTOM COUNT

1 - D Swan - 25
2 - L Hodge - 17
3 - G Ablett - 14
4 - L Montagna - 14
5 - B Goddard - 14
6 - C Judd - 13
7 - A Sandilands - 12
8 - M Barlow - 12
9 - J Bartel - 12
10 - J Selwood - 12
11 - N Dal Santo - 12
12 - M Pavlich - 11
13 - P Chapman - 11
14 - B Harvey - 11
15 - J Brown - 10
16 - L Hayes - 10
17 - A Cooney - 9
18 - B Lake - 9
19 - S Goodwin - 9
20 - S Thompson - 9

Dane Swan looks to be the man to catch, Hodge's voting history isn't fantastic, but if the umpires are kind enough to him he could poll those 17 votes or more by this stage. Ablett will have to poll very well as I see it to be close to the front at this stage. Montagna has played some pearlers this season, but there isn't much room to improve on the phantom 14 vote tally. Goddard on the other hand could well be the challenger to Swan if he polls well, there are many games where he is nested amongst the top five or so players on the ground so if he gets the most out of those games, he is a good chance. Hard to see Judd winning, he would have to pull off some trademark freak polling in the right games. The Fremantle guys will all take votes off each other, including David Mundy, who sits just outside of the counts, if anyone is to emerge from Fremantle it will be Sandilands. Bartel, Selwood and Chapman are the three wildcards from Geelong, I have a feeling one will pop up for a lot of votes, while one or two could also poll badly. Chapman has a very good base of good games, and would be seriously stiff to poll below 10 votes by this stage. There are a whole host of players on 10, 9 and 8 votes in the phantom, but only a few of these players appear to have a chance of polling enough votes to win a place, perhaps only a renowned vote-getter like Cooney will be a chance.

My tips at this stage:

Winner - Swan
Wildcard - Sandilands
Value Bet - Swan [$8]

What are everyone's thoughts as we enter the run home?

[The Coon Dog]

Really a battle of the midfielders in Swan, Barlow (up to his injury), Ablett, Hodge & Montagna.

Others to consider outside of those runners are Sandilands & Goddard.

I just can't see Cooney or Lake saluting the judges, so it's Dane Swan or Luke Hodge for me.

[comrade]

If Swan salutes, he'll be the most unfashionable Brownlow winner since our very own Libba. It's incredible how much ability he's squeezed out of the duck-waddling body.

[Topdog]

You mention that Hodge doesn't poll well historically but neither does Swan. He only got 12 votes last year . I put money on Hodge pre season but I doubt he will get enough love from the umps.

[Desipura]

If Swan salutes, he'll be the most unfashionable Brownlow winner since our very own Libba. It's incredible how much ability he's squeezed out of the duck-waddling body.
I think you are selling him short. He has explosive pace when he wants to turn it on and has a massive tank.

[Topdog]

I think you are selling him short. He has explosive pace when he wants to turn it on and has a massive tank.

In reality you are agreeing with comrade. the fact that he is able to run all day is a tribute to him. He has a body that isn't suited to long distance running and a running style that isn't conducive to sprinting.

[Desipura]

In reality you are agreeing with comrade. the fact that he is able to run all day is a tribute to him. He has a body that isn't suited to long distance running and a running style that isn't conducive to sprinting.

No Im not, I do not think he is unfashionable. Yes I would agree he has an unusual running style. He may have a body that isnt condusive to sprinting, but "by gee, he does it well".

[Topdog]

No Im not, I do not think he is unfashionable. Yes I would agree he has an unusual running style. He may have a body that isnt condusive to sprinting, but "by gee, he does it well".

Fair enough. IMO that is the definition of unfashionable as a footballer. Someone who doesn't look like a player.

[comrade]

Fair enough. IMO that is the definition of unfashionable as a footballer. Someone who doesn't look like a player.

Exactly, I never said he wasn't good, just unfashionable. Dal Santo is a fashionable type, but I'd prefer Swan.

[Scorlibo]

You mention that Hodge doesn't poll well historically but neither does Swan. He only got 12 votes last year . I put money on Hodge pre season but I doubt he will get enough love from the umps.

Swan also polled 20 in 2007 when he was half the player he is now, so it's very hard to know how he'll be seen this time around. If either of Swan or Hodge do poll well, they will be very hard to catch, especially after great performances from each in round 16.

[LostDoggy]

Just being biased, and from the town where Harbrow hails from, i wouldn't be suprised if he polls well with the votes, a good all rounder who will improve more as time goes on.

Especially if he continues to wear the red white and blue.

[LostDoggy]

Tip: Luke Hodge
Smokie: Boyd
Top Dog:Boyd

[Rocco Jones]

Great work Scorlibo.

[Ghost Dog]

I think you are selling him short. He has explosive pace when he wants to turn it on and has a massive tank.

Not true. :rolleyes:

He also is at the forefront of the interchange revolution; no player in the competition is rotated more. Malthouse first disdained interchange theory, then adopted with a convert's zeal. The new regimen maximised Swan's strengths. ''I'm not the greatest endurance runner at the club,'' he said. ''I'm probably 10th to 15th in the two-kilometre time trial. The kind of thing I like to think I'm good at is burst running, 300 or 400 metres at top speed. I recover pretty quickly.

( TheAGE, 16th July )

[hujsh]

Not true. :rolleyes:

He also is at the forefront of the interchange revolution; no player in the competition is rotated more. Malthouse first disdained interchange theory, then adopted with a convert's zeal. The new regimen maximised Swan's strengths. ''I'm not the greatest endurance runner at the club,'' he said. ''I'm probably 10th to 15th in the two-kilometre time trial. The kind of thing I like to think I'm good at is burst running, 300 or 400 metres at top speed. I recover pretty quickly.

( TheAGE, 16th July )

What year was this from. I remember this was the case in 2006 when he had his breakout year.

[Ghost Dog]

What year was this from. I remember this was the case in 2006 when he had his breakout year.

2010, a few days ago.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/dane-swan-the-illusionist-20100716-10e8u.html

[LostDoggy]

They mentioned that on the radio the other day that swan plays about 80% game time regularly

[Topdog]

Swan also polled 20 in 2007 when he was half the player he is now, so it's very hard to know how he'll be seen this time around. If either of Swan or Hodge do poll well, they will be very hard to catch, especially after great performances from each in round 16.

Gee didnt know that. Guess that will teach me for listening to Pies supporters saying that the umps hate on of their players.

[Mofra]

Gee didnt know that. Guess that will teach me for listening to Pies supporters saying that the umps hate on of their players.
Pies supporters have the worst case of persecution complex in the AFL.

[Topdog]

Pies supporters have the worst case of persecution complex in the AFL.

That much I knew ;)