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The Bulldogs Bite
28-04-2010, 11:05 PM
2010 AFL Season – Round 6 Match Preview
Western Bulldogs v St. Kilda
Etihad Stadium
Friday 30 April 2010, 7:40pm

Head To Head
Western Bulldogs: 70 wins
St Kilda: 74 wins
Draws: 3

Previous Encounters:

2010 NAB Cup Grand Final – Etihad Stadium
Western Bulldogs – 2.13.8 (104)
St Kilda – 0.9.10 (64)

The Western Bulldogs were quick to jump out of the blocks, finding themselves 29 points up before St. Kilda even scored. The Dogs’ pressure was a real highlight on this night, but as expected the Saints rallied. The margin narrowed down to two points in the third quarter before The Dogs were able to kick away and take in a 15 point lead to three quarter time. The last term was all one way with Barry Hall leading the charge, finishing off with 7 goals and being awarded the Michael Tuck Medal for ‘Best On Ground.’

2009 Preliminary Final - MCG
St Kilda – 9.6 (60)
Western Bulldogs – 7.11 (53)

Heartbreak. The Dogs went down to St. Kilda by 7 points, missing out on yet another Grand Final birth. The Bulldogs began the game in no uncertain terms, threatening to blow the game out of the water in the first quarter. Ryan Griffen and Robert Murphy were sensational but due to some inaccurate kicking, the door was left ajar. The Dogs run, carry, skill and pressure was fantastic all night but we failed to take our opportunity at key moments. Lenny Hayes and Nick Riewoldt were the saviors for St. Kilda – both played remarkable second halves that kept their side within reach. Morris had done a commendable job on Riewoldt, but the tall forward capitalized on some forward thrusts late in the game to kick two absolutely crucial goals. The Dogs got a very ordinary deal from the umpires, most noteably the Lake bump on Riewoldt. Having said all that – The Dogs lost the game through poor kicking for goal and a tendency to bomb the ball late in the match. Another pre-season of anguish for Dog supporters, whilst St. Kilda experienced that same fate one week later v Geelong in a losing Grand Final.

Round 17, 2009 Home & Away Season – Etihad Stadium
St Kilda – 16.10 (106)
Western Bulldogs – 9.7 (61)

Disappointing night for The Dogs who were close enough at three quarter time, but fell away badly in the last quarter. Much of that can be contributed to injuries to Higgins (groin) and Murphy (hamstring), whilst Welsh was the infamous 19th man on the field to cost us the opening goal and ultimately – any chance of victory. Goddard proved deadly with 37 disposals, whilst Dal Santo dominated with 39. On the other side of the field, Boyd finished with 39 of his own and Griffen picked up 26 disposals. Johnson was kept goalless by Hudghton, whilst Riewoldt ran Lake ragged whilst opposed to one another.

Preamble

The Dogs have had an indifferent start to the year after a compelling Nab Cup series. Victories have come against Richmond, Hawthorn and Adelaide – two of them winless, and the other having only secured the one win. The Bulldogs were well beaten in Round 1 against Collingwood and were comprehensively out-played in Brisbane against The Lions. Form has fluctuated throughout the matches, with most players having contributed at some point in time.

Last week, The Bulldogs found encouraging form in the second half to blow Adelaide away. Barry Hall was brilliant again up forward with 5 majors. Giansiracusa had arguably a career best game, picking up 35 disposals. 12 of those were contested, he had 5 inside 50’s and provided 3 goal assists. Griffen continued his strong form by finishing with 32 touches at 82% efficiency, 4 clearances and 2 goals.

St. Kilda have been most impressive once again this season, their highlight coming in Round 3 against Collingwood. Riewoldt badly injured his hamstring and Fisher was taken off the ground on a stretcher, but St. Kilda flexed their muscle and dominated Collingwood in the last quarter to run out winners by 28 points. Fisher made an inspiring return to the field, whilst Gilbert was close to best on ground.

The Saints have overcome strong opposition in Sydney, Collingwood and Fremantle. Their first loss came against Port Adelaide this past Saturday Night, going down by 10 points. It was a very scrappy game and whilst it appeared the Saints would be able to answer the challenge, the absence of Riewoldt was telling. Koschitzke was very poor in his first game back, whilst Milne barely got a sniff besides one miracle goal.

With the competition so even in 2010, the contest between these two heavyweights is vital. The Dogs need to keep up with the group to ensure a top four position never leaves sight. St. Kilda will be determined to atone for last week – two losses and the doubt of whether or not they can overcome sides without Riewoldt begins. Expect both sides to leave nothing to chance, throwing everything they possibly can at one another.

Selection Table - Bulldogs

Matthew Boyd - Hand - Test
Ayce Cordy - Shoulder - 2 weeks
Andrew Hooper - Shoulder - To be assessed
Christian Howard - Hip - 3 weeks
James Mulligan - Hamstring - Test
Liam Picken - Ankle - 4-5 weeks
Shane Thorne - Knee - 12 weeks
Jason Tutt - Ankle - 2 weeks
Callan Ward - Groin - 4 weeks

It’s an interesting week at the selection table for the Dogs. Boyd has been given the all clear by his surgeon to play, but Eade said he’s still no certainty. The decision may come back to Boydy himself and you’d think he would elect to play, given the opposition. Hargrave has recovered from last week and if fully fit should be another inclusion. He hasn’t been in good form, but he’s a fantastic player that makes our back six look complete. Other possibilities include Minson, Hill and Wood – but all three are very unlikely to play.

Grant, Addison and Moles are the three who will find it tough to keep their spots. Grant played well last week but we may be tempted to drop him in favour of a Boyd/Hargrave to suit St. Kilda’s physicality. Addison has done a job the last two weeks but his spot will be looked at with a similar, more effective player (Hargrave) coming back. Moles responded well to originally being dropped last week, but his disposal will be in question against a pressuring, disciplined St. Kilda outfit.

Selection Table – St. Kilda

Jason Gram (hip) - TBA
Luke Miles (stress fracture fibula) - TBA
Farren Ray (ankle) - TBA
Nick Riewoldt (hamstring) - 11-15 weeks
Jesse Smith (ankle) – TBA

The Saints have a few options up their sleeve. Gram and Ray are expected to return after missing last week’s game, whilst McEvoy is a likely inclusion too. Stanley is a young KF/Ruck option who that may be tempted to play due to their forward line woes last week. He impressed in the NAB Cup and is pretty agile for a big guy, having won the 2009 Grand Final sprint. Jack Steven is an outside chance to play too, if the Saints are looking for extra speed.

There are a number of players in the gun. Eddy, Peake, King, Clarke and McQualter are the five in trouble of keeping their positions. Expect three changes at the least – but a Stanley/Steven inclusion wouldn’t surprise us either, for logical reasons.

Key Match-ups

Lake vs. Kosi: This is a pivotal match-up, made more important by Riewoldt’s absence. Last week Kosi had no impact on the game, and they lost. They are desperate for the maligned forward to step up – but Lake is certainly one player in the past that has embarrassed him. The 09 PF is another example of Brian’s dominance as not only did he quell the big forward, he set up numerous attacks for us too. It’s a huge problem for St. Kilda – do they try to take Lake out of the play, ‘double team’ a full back or hope Kosi bucks the trend?

Morris vs. Goddard: They may elect to play Goddard in the midfield for periods of the game, but I’d expect them to play him forward as much as possible. Without Riewoldt, Morris is the perfect match-up. He’s got the size (for once), strength and pace to match it with Goddard who has been in blistering form so far this year. Goddard id undoubtedly their trump card; if we can’t contain him, we’ll find it difficult to win.

Hargrave/Harbrow vs. Milne: Last week aside, Milne’s been very damaging thus far in 2010. In previous years, Hargrave has done a pretty good job keeping the small forward quiet. However – it’s not certain Ryan will play, and even if he does, his form has been well down on previous years. Harbrow will get a crack at some stage – he has to play tighter. Whilst we love Harbrow’s run, he can cough up goals against the smart small forwards and Milne is definitely one of those.

Addison? vs. Montagna: Picken injured leaves a massive hole in our side. He’d usually go to Montagna, and with Ward out too – we’re light on for options. Addison may get a game based purely on this. He’s been playing OK and generally plays well when given a specific role to play. Moles might be another asked to do the job, whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see us use Griffen in a head to head role. This is a problem for us either way. Montagna runs the lines and can really get St. Kilda moving – we’ll need to rotate a few players on him to ensure his influence is limited.

Cooney/Griffen vs. Jones: These two usually play on one another, but with Griffen’s great form perhaps Jones will break the trend. In any case, Jones has established himself as one of the best taggers in the game. He has a decent record on Cooney and if we’re to get over the line, Adam will play an integral part in that. Likewise Griffen – who if he gets on top of the Saints, will probably get Jones at some stage.
Boyd vs. Hayes: Last year, Hayes helped drag the Saints over the line and into a Grand Final. Had it not been for his efforts – they wouldn’t of made it. Cross played on him and was unfortunately beaten badly. This time around, expect Boyd (if he plays) to go head to head. Both are absolute gems at finding the ball and creating space for others.

Hahn vs. Fisher: Seems the suitable type. Mitch is usually stuck with opposition players who love to be third man up. Fisher plays this role better than anybody and creates plenty of drive off half back. Hahn hasn’t been in great form and will really need to lift to make Fisher accountable. If he doesn’t, expect Fisher to make life very difficult for Hall. Hahn may not be our best forward – but arguably he’s our most important one this Friday Night.

Akermanis vs. Baker: Most likely to eventuate and despite their age, again – it’s a key match-up. Aker is yet to register a major so far this year which is most unlike him. In 2008, he booted six against them in a vintage Aker display. Whilst that’s a bit of a pipe dream to happen again, Aker is still very capable of turning a match. Against a tough side like St. Kilda – we need to finish off our work and Aker’s probably the best at that. Baker has done a fairly good job on him in recent times so Aker will be hoping to get involved in a greater capacity.

Hall vs. Dawson: Barry has been in great form offensively and defensively. Dawson has been ordinary and as we saw in the NAB Cup, Hall has the ability to really out-smart and out-body the Saints defender. Pivotal match-up; Hall might only have to kick 4 for us to win provided it’s not a high scoring game. Dawson will need a chop out and Fisher/Gilbert will supply that – but they have to be weary of their opponents. Hall has the ability to win it off his own boot or draw all the attention to himself, thus allowing the likes of Johnson, Hahn and Higgins to blossom.

X-Factor

Brad Johnson: Much like Aker, Johnson is yet to kick a goal in 2010. Most unusual and if somebody told you that both these players would be goalless after Round 5, you’d be calling them insane. Having said that – Johnson has only played the two games and looked good last week despite a few turnover kicks. From St. Kilda’s point of view, Johnson isn’t really their biggest worry. Down back they’ll be trying to curb Lake, Harbrow and Gilbee. In the middle they’ll be paying attention to Cooney and Griffen. Up forward, Hall, Murphy and Higgins will probably be their main targets. It means Johnson – for the first time in his career – can get under the guard a little.

Adam Schneider: When you think of stopping St. Kilda, Schneider doesn’t spring to mind. The likes of Riewoldt, Hayes, Montagna, Goddard, Dal Santo, Milne, Fisher and Gilbert do. Quite often, Schneider is able to sneak under the radar and really hurt sides. He’s developed a bigger engine over the pre-season so that he can push up to the midfield at times. He’s a clever player, runs hard and can kick goals. Similar to Eagleton in that he finds space by dropping off packs or running hard forward. He’s booted 9.3 so far in 2010, coming off 34 goals in 2009. He’s definitely the type of player that could bob up with 20 disposals and 2-3 goals to create a buffer.

The Bulldogs Bite
28-04-2010, 11:06 PM
Verdict

It’s a massive game for both clubs. Both want to assert their authority over another contender. St. Kilda will be desperate to avoid losing two on the trot so I have no doubt they’ll be fierce come the first bounce of the ball. They are coming off a six day break so pay attention to their last quarter – they may fade if we’ve put enough pressure on them throughout the game.

The Dogs need a heavyweight scalp. After losing to Brisbane and Collingwood, we really haven’t beaten any side of note. Our form has been patchy and we’ve been hit by injuries to key players. No doubt a win on Friday Night could set-up our season, so anything less than a win will be sheer disappointment.

In a bruising encounter of two very talented football sides, it comes down to defense. If St. Kilda are able to choke the midfield’s supply and get numbers back – our forwards will have a frustrating night ala Round 17 last year. If The Dogs can implement the fierce pressure similar to the Nab Cup, we’ll create plenty of space and goal scoring opportunities. It won’t be a night devoid of contact; expect hard hits and plenty of stoppages. We can match it with them – we’ve proven it the last two times we’ve played them.

Dogs by 15 points.

chef
29-04-2010, 06:59 AM
Great preview TBB:).

LostDoggy
29-04-2010, 07:57 AM
Well done, enjoyed that preview

Mantis
29-04-2010, 08:07 AM
Well done on providing a great read TBB.

The Boyd v Hayes head to head match-up worries me a little. Personally I think we need to pay Hayes a little more attention than just a head to head battle and believe that Boyd or Cross need to sacrifice their own game to stop Hayes. Big question is can either of these 2 do that sort of job? It must be remembered that Cross had both ankles re-constructed following our PF loss so you would expect him to be able to perform his task a little better this time around.

Our ball use simply needs to improve. We have turned the ball over far too often this year and if we continue to butcher the ball the St.Kilda team will punish us. If we use the ball well we will break down the zone, but if we kick it hap-hazardly the shear weight of numbers that St.Kilda get in and around the ball will mean thay will be in a position to punish us which leads us to the next question... Who kicks their goals??

No Sir Nick Dive-a-lot means our back 6 will breathe a big sigh of relief, but without Rooey down there it means greater unpredictability which in itself can create problems. Atleast with Riewoldt there you know where the ball is going, but now with different options it will mean we need to be on our toes. I guess we were in this position in the past with a multi-dimensional forwardline which worked a treat against the lower ranked teams, but generally we failed to put a score on the board against teams such as St.Kilda. I guess we will see how the Saints handle being in the same position.

As TBB expalined we need a to lift our intensity and our skill level... We come off a pretty easy win last week in a game in which we crusied to the line, we've had a 7 day break and face a team without their 'gun' player... a player who has been the deciding factor in many of our past clashes. We are still a long from the finish line, but even this early on it would nice for our team to be able to flex their muscles a little and show the competition that we will still be there when the whips start cracking.

Mofra
29-04-2010, 09:22 AM
Good write up on the Montagna issue - he has been in great form this year, and combined with Hayes' efforts in the Prelim, they are the two we really need to stop. I'm not sure we can afford head to head match ups with both, as if they cut loose we will find it very hard to stop them.
I'd throw Moles onto whoever is doing the most damage in a run with role, Cross head to head with the other which will hopefully free up one of Boyd or Cooney to provide our clearance work (Cooney is likely to cop a hard tag from Jones so I'd like to play him outside the pack a little more to take his tackling ability out of the equation).

Mantis
29-04-2010, 09:36 AM
Good write up on the Montagna issue - he has been in great form this year, and combined with Hayes' efforts in the Prelim, they are the two we really need to stop. I'm not sure we can afford head to head match ups with both, as if they cut loose we will find it very hard to stop them.
I'd throw Moles onto whoever is doing the most damage in a run with role, Cross head to head with the other which will hopefully free up one of Boyd or Cooney to provide our clearance work (Cooney is likely to cop a hard tag from Jones so I'd like to play him outside the pack a little more to take his tackling ability out of the equation).

Jones's clearance work is also quite good as evidenced in the PF where he was able to win the ball at some important times.

It might be a good option to try and drag Jones 5 or 10m away from the stopped ball situations around the ground such that our tagged player (likely to be Cooney or Griffen) can hit the pack at speed and we deny the Saints another hard bodied ball winner in close.

Go_Dogs
29-04-2010, 09:48 AM
Great preview TBB. Should be a cracker of a game tomorrow night.



It might be a good option to try and drag Jones 5 or 10m away from the stopped ball situations around the ground such that our tagged player (likely to be Cooney or Griffen) can hit the pack at speed and we deny the Saints another hard bodied ball winner in close.

I think this is a very good idea. We know Cooney and Griffen like to hit the clearance at speed, and this is a tactic that could very much work in our favour.


Montagna is another who worries me, as he always seems to run out games very well and much like Eagleton, is able to gut run and create space as others tire around him. If we can get on top in the contested areas and our tackling pressure is solid, that should go a long way to preventing Montagna from getting into the game.

bulldogsman
29-04-2010, 10:04 AM
Great preview TBB. Should be a cracker of a game tomorrow night.




I think this is a very good idea. We know Cooney and Griffen like to hit the clearance at speed, and this is a tactic that could very much work in our favour.


Montagna is another who worries me, as he always seems to run out games very well and much like Eagleton, is able to gut run and create space as others tire around him. If we can get on top in the contested areas and our tackling pressure is solid, that should go a long way to preventing Montagna from getting into the game.

And Gram who usually kills us. Eagleton really has to play a good game, both defensively and offensively.

Excellent preview by the way

Ozza
29-04-2010, 12:08 PM
Given Picken is out - I'd like to see Griffen and Montagna go head to head. And as far as tagging - send Cross to Dal Santo, and try and restrict Dal's kicks - which are as damaging as anyone.

Addison's role could be to play defensive against Gram - who gives them a great deal of drive from Half back.

Aker and Johnson will be watched closely - you can count on that - and they have a great deal of respect for Cooney at St.Kilda - so Jones is a lock to go to him.

bornadog
29-04-2010, 12:25 PM
Well done enjoyed the read TBB.

One guy that still worries me is the slime, Milne. He is such an opportunist we really must contain him. Hopefully Harbrow can pick him up. Last year Harbrow was still learning the back pocket role and really got stitched up in the first game we played them. He has gained some experience and confidence since then and will need to tighten up on Milne.

Ozza
29-04-2010, 01:43 PM
I think with Milne, he is definitely as you say 'an opportunist' - but its the opportunities when the ball comes in to a fairly open forward line when he is more likely to rove or run onto a ball for a goal.

If the backs are tight, and mids can slow down their ball movement - that will go a long way to preventing many of Milne's chances to score. I worry more about Schneider - who is a smart player and has been working up the ground further - but still getting fwd to kick a few goals.

LostDoggy
29-04-2010, 04:44 PM
try and restrict Dal's kicks - which are as damaging as anyone.

This is what i'm most worried about.

I would much prefer to see Montagna get 30+ touches than Dal Santo.

Simply because Dal Santo is so smart with his ball use, especially forward of the centre delivering into the forward 50.

Montagna tends to kick the ball long on just about every occasion, which will suit our backline IMO without Rewoildt down there.

Montagna is always going to get his 30+ touches due to his ball winning ability and gut running. But if Dal Santo ends up with 30+ i would be thinking we are in strife.

We saw this in the Port Adelaide game, Montagna had 35+ touches played a very good game, however Kane Cornes tagged Dal Santo and limited him to about 17 possesions if i remember correctly. In a tight scrappy game, i think if Dal had the 35+ touches i think Saints would have won the game.

Go_Dogs
29-04-2010, 06:15 PM
Simply because Dal Santo is so smart with his ball use, especially forward of the centre delivering into the forward 50.

Montagna tends to kick the ball long on just about every occasion, which will suit our backline IMO without Rewoildt down there.

Good observations Jaytee, I think you could be on the money here.

Mantis
29-04-2010, 07:26 PM
As with G#16 some good observations JT.

So JT who do you think we should play on Dal Santo to fill the role you wish?

Yankee Hotel Foxtrot
29-04-2010, 07:30 PM
Any chance that Guido could get a shutdown role? He manfully performed Boydy's inside mid role last week, could he be up for a defensive assignment this week?

Nice work on the Preview TBD, very thorough.

The Bulldogs Bite
29-04-2010, 08:30 PM
Thanks for the comments guys.


Any chance that Guido could get a shutdown role? He manfully performed Boydy's inside mid role last week, could he be up for a defensive assignment this week?

I floated this thought in my mind when writing it all up. A lot may depend on whether or not Boyd plays. At this stage - he'll be asked to replicate his role and efforts of last week. If Boyd plays, then Gia might get a run with role.

Question is, with who? Montagna is too quick and with Addison not getting dropped, I suspect this is his role. Maybe Dal Santo?

dog town
29-04-2010, 09:53 PM
The Lake/Kosi match up is an interesting one. I thought Tippetts reach and long tendency to jump straight up troubled Lake early last week before he adjusted and I think Kosi is a similar size so I hope Lake is on his game. Lake has done well on Kosi before but Lyon may have noted the way Tippett beat him a couple of times.

I think Jones will still go to Cooney. They will be tempted but Jones has in the past not only limited the damage of Cooney and his touches but he has also hurt us by getting his own clearances. We need to be careful of this.

Mofra
30-04-2010, 09:17 AM
The Lake/Kosi match up is an interesting one. I thought Tippetts reach and long tendency to jump straight up troubled Lake early last week before he adjusted and I think Kosi is a similar size so I hope Lake is on his game. Lake has done well on Kosi before but Lyon may have noted the way Tippett beat him a couple of times.

I think Jones will still go to Cooney. They will be tempted but Jones has in the past not only limited the damage of Cooney and his touches but he has also hurt us by getting his own clearances. We need to be careful of this.
Kosi is more susceptable to bodywork than Tippett so I expect Lake to do ok. I wouldn't mind giving Williams time on Kosi too if they play him up the ground, to keep Lake in the F50 late in quarters when the mids are more likely to go for the long bomb.

I'm assuming DFA will get a run with role now Moles is out - Gia head to head with one of their mids could be an interesting one as well.

LostDoggy
30-04-2010, 10:13 AM
As with G#16 some good observations JT.

So JT who do you think we should play on Dal Santo to fill the role you wish?


I think Cross could do the job. Cornes seems to be able to shut down players effectively without being quick himself. If Crossy was given the job to shut down Dal Santo as his #1 forcus i'm pretty confident he could do the job.

Dal Santo does get thrown forward every now and then, i'm not sure how Cross would go in the backline? Maybe someone like Gilbee could do to him when he drifts forward?

Sedat
30-04-2010, 11:12 AM
Fantastic preview TBB.

I noticed that Gwilt was listed at CHF for the Saints. He did have some success peeling off a very loose Brian Lake in the Round 6 twilight match last season. I'd say Gwilt is an even smarter player now than he was 12 months ago, so it would not surprise me at all to see him line up there tonight, which will ensure that Dawson has the cover of Fisher and Goddard down back. I still think Lake will go to Kosi, but whoever is assigned to Gwilt will have to keep an eye on the space he can make for himself on occasions.

Would have been nice to have Picken and Ward in the team tonight, let alone Boyd - Hayes, Dal Santo, Jones and Montagna represents some top-shelf firepower in the Saints midfield, and Hayes was a notable absentee from the NAB Cup GF. Addison's inclusion also worries me as he has been notably poor in recent matches against the Saints.

Our defensive pressure across the entire ground was very good last week, and it is an absolute non-negotiable that we have to carry the same intensity this week if we are to get over the line against the Saints. Roo or no Roo, they are still are very difficult team to break down.

The Pies did plenty wrong against the Saints a couple of weeks ago but one thing I loved seeing them do was specifically target Jones for some physical and verbal attention. Jones was clearly rattled and made many uncharacteristic mistakes in the first half of that match. Some of us before last year's PF were suggesting to do exactly the same thing. I hope we make him earn absolutely every possession tonight and make him feel as hunted as his opponents do.