Sedat
11-05-2010, 06:39 PM
Match Preview – Round 8
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Saturday 2.10pm, Manuka Oval, Canberra
Last time they met:
Round 10, 2009, Manuka Oval, Canberra
Western Bulldogs 18.9:117 def. Sydney 12.5:77
After an opening 20 minutes dominated by the Swans, the Bulldogs clicked into gear and proceeded to destroy Sydney with a devastating burst of 13 consecutive goals to kill off the contest by half time. The Bulldogs’ stoppage work in particular (led by Hudson’s dominance over Jolly), and their ability to spread quickly from the contest, was pivotal to the onslaught. Sydney somewhat restored the midfield balance after half time but it was too little too late, with the Bulldogs easing to a very comfortable 40 point victory. Prior to this match, the Bulldogs reversed a Sydney 5-match winning streak with 3 victories against the Swans throughout 2008, one each at the SCG, Manuka and at the MCG in a cut-throat semi-final.
Form Guide:
Western Bulldogs – 8th (4 wins – 3 losses): 114.6%
The Bulldogs’ form-line has spluttered throughout season 2010 to date, with losses against fellow contenders Collingwood, Brisbane and (unluckily) St Kilda off-set by expected victories against Richmond, Hawthorn, Adelaide and (luckily) Melbourne. Whilst the premiership season is a marathon and not a sprint, the Bulldogs do have some concerns in their ability to run out matches, as evidenced by poor fade-outs in all matches except the Hawthorn, Richmond and Adelaide games. Even in the last gasp victory against Melbourne, the Bulldogs were soundly beaten for run through the corridor in the last qtr up until the last 5 minutes (Melbourne had 24 more disposals in the last qtr), and the ultimately gutsy nature of this victory will hopefully provide the spark that the Bulldogs need to sustain a run of more consistent form (especially over the course of 120 minutes in individual games).
Sydney – 4th (5 wins – 2 losses): 124.0%
Sydney had barely put a foot wrong and were leading all-comers on the ladder up until meeting the Geelong juggernaut head-on at Kardinia Park on the weekend, whereby they were given a footballing masterclass. Their midfield was annihilated by Geelong, resulting in a pitiful supply of ball inside their forward 50 and no opportunity for any scoreboard impact whatsoever. Up until then, Sydney were terrific in dismantling poorer teams (West Coast, Adelaide, Richmond), and also in providing far more run and carry than they have previously shown in recent seasons. The return to full form and fitness of Malceski and Kennelly, in addition to the run that the likes of R Shaw and Mattner already provide, has given Sydney fantastic transition from defence to attack against the more mediocre teams in the competition. The big question moving forward is whether the Geelong game was an aberration or the previous games were not a true indicator of the Swans’ improved form in 2010 – a mixture of the two I suspect.
The Team Stats:
Western Bulldogs:
Ranked 1st in Kicks Per Game
Ranked 1st in Marks Per Game
Ranked 4th in Disposals Per Game
Ranked 4th in First Possessions Per Game
Ranked 5th in Clearances Per Game
Ranked 5th in Inside 50’s Per Game
Ranked 2nd in Rebound 50’s Per Game
Ranked 5th in Contested Possessions Per Game
Ranked 16th in Frees Against Per Game
Ranked 15th in Hitouts Per Game
Ranked 12th in One-Percenters Per Game
There is no doubt that the Bulldog’s lack run and carry in 2010 compared to 2009, and the above statistics bear this out. Whilst we are still very strong in at the contests and clearances (despite rarely winning the actual hitout battle), our ball use has increased significantly by foot at the expense of by hand, and the huge increase in marks is reflective of us adopting much more tempo-oriented brand of football, holding onto possession much more with short kicks. Some of this can definitely be attributed to the lack of midfield rotations we’ve had at our disposal in the first 7 weeks of the season thus far.
Sydney
Ranked 5th in Goals Per Game
Ranked 1st in least Opponent Disposals Per Game
Ranked 1st in least Opponent Clearances Per Game
Ranked 15th in Tackles Per Game
Ranked 13th in Contested Possessions Per Game
Ranked 16th in One-Percenters Per Game
Sydney has been a very interesting team to watch this season compared to recent seasons. An element of flair and excitement has definitely crept into Sydney’s game style in 2010, with far more spread from the contests, which combined with terrific run and overlap from half-back, has resulted in far more potency in attack this season. Interestingly, the traditional Sydney blueprint indicators, tackling intensity and contested possessions, are both well down this season compared to recent history.
Semi-interesting factoid:
In 3 of the past 4 matches against the Swans, the Bulldogs have kicked something like 23 goals to 2 in second quarters combined – from memory it was 8 goals to 1 at the SCG 2008, 7 goals to 1 at Manuka 2008 and 8 goals to zip at Manuka 2009. Each of these matches started the same way – Sydney dominated large parts of the opening quarter only to be completely blown off the park in the 2nd. The only match that went against this trend was the semi-final in 2008, when we waited until the 3rd qtr to blow the Swans off the park (6 goals to zip from memory). All these matches have shown that the Bulldogs possess a couple of extra gears that Sydney has been simply unable to go close to matching over the course of 120 minutes.
The Selection Table
Western Bulldogs:
Some interesting selection dilemmas for the Dogs MC this week. Are Johnson, Moles and Eagleton fully recovered from their injuries? Which one of Minson or Roughead will return to play 2nd fiddle in the ruck? Will Stack and/or Hill keep his place in the team? The Seadogs form has collectively been good, but there hasn’t been a standout performer this season to date. I suspect there will be only one change to the line-up (Minson for Stack is my guess). I would personally be against this, but if Johnson is fully fit, he’ll probably come in for Hill.
Sydney:
Sydney have just as many issues at selection table. With Mumford out, Mike Pyke will more than likely get a run this week, and will share the rucking duties with Jesse White you’d imagine (Goodes might also pinch hit on occasions). McGlynn would also be very close to a senior recall and would be an immediate inclusion if he has fully recovered from his quad injury. Jetta has been in poor form the last couple of weeks but I think his explosive line-breaking pace will see him remain in the team this week. Craig Bolton is a big loss to their defensive structure and will be out for quite some time.
Key Match-ups
Cooney v Jack
Jack is now the premier run-with option for Sydney and is one of the most improved players in the competition. He is extremely fit, dedicated to the task and can also run offensively. He will give Cooney a solid test this week, who has leant to handle the hard tags better with each passing season. Jarrad McVeigh might be another option on Cooney, who torched the Coondog in Canberra two years ago kicking 6 goals working off him the other way (Coons was hampered by a knee injury at the time to be fair) – aside from this match, Cooney has been a major weapon against the Swans in the last few encounters, which is why I think Sydney will assign their premier lock-down option onto him.
Griffen v McVeigh
I think Sydney will opt for McVeigh to go a semi-tag on Griffen in the hope that he can exploit Griff going the other way. I can’t see this working as McVeigh is not in as great form as he has been the last couple of seasons and I don’t think he will be able to provide the necessary offensive rebound drive – in truth he will be hard-pressed just to stop Griffen from imposing himself all over this contest with his propensity to run and carry and then distribute with precision further upfield.
Hall v Grundy/LRT
With Craig Bolton out of the team, Grundy should get first crack at Bustling. He is very quick off the mark and deceptively strong, so our midfield supply to Hall will need to be pin-point in order to overcome one of the most improved players in the competition. LRT will probably get some minutes on Hall as well, or worst case will zone off his direct opponent to try and isolate Hall 2-on-1. Good clean supply into our forward 50 and Hall could kick a bag.
Lake v Bradshaw
Bradshaw looks a natural match-up for Lake this week. Bradshaw is a very good player but was completely starved of opportunities against the Cats. Lake’s ability to ready the ball in flight and his pace to go with almost every tall forward in the competition (including Bradshaw) makes him a good option. If White spends more time forward instead of in the ruck, Lake might take him and rely on Morris to try and shut down Bradshaw but I don’t think Sydney can afford to have White spending too much time forward with Mumford rubbed out this week (assuming his appeal is not successful).
Boyd/Cross v Kirk/J Bolton
Both Kirk and J Bolton have been mighty warriors for Sydney but they have showed signs of slowing down this season. Sydney’s reliance on winning the contested possession has lessened against poorer teams but it could bite them on the backside against the better teams – it certainly did against the Cats. If Boyd and Cross can decisively win the clearance and contested possession battle and feed the likes of Cooney, Griffen, Gilbee and Harbrow to run and distribute in space, it will go a very long way to the Dogs winning this match comfortably.
Hargrave v O’Keefe
I think Shaggy would benefit enormously by being assigned a specific defensive match-up this week, and O’Keefe represents a great challenge for him. O’Keefe’s greatest asset is his ability to gut-run all lengths of the ground – he’s not especially quick but he is amazingly fit and can run opponents into the dirt. Perhaps Morris could also be assigned to him in bursts but I have someone else in mind for the human glove…
Morris v Goodes
Goodes has a stinker against Geelong but was in great form prior to that. He has definitely been playing deeper this season and has helped structure up the Swans by providing a mobile target across half-forward. Morris was outstanding against Melbourne last week and was a major factor in keeping us in the match for so long. His dedication to the defensive task and his pace off the mark make him the ideal match-up for Goodes IMO.
Hill/Aker/Higgins v Malceski/R Shaw/Kennelly
Dangerous area of the ground for the Bulldogs and probably the area of biggest concern. If our mid-sized forwards don’t create enough defensive pressure, Sydney’s half back runners could have a field day. If we bring the defensive intensity to the table we had against Adelaide and St Kilda, this will help nullify Sydney’s rebound drive and subsequent ability to spread free of the congestion.
Where it will be won or lost:
As with most weeks, the midfield battle will decide the outcome of this week’s match. Both Sydney and the Bulldogs have weapons up forward, so it will be paramount for the winning team to win the midfield battle and ensure that clean ball is distributed into forward 50 so that defenders can be isolated one-out against their direct opponents more often than not. Neither team has what you’d call terrific crumbers so I can see more goals from marks/free kicks being scored this week than from open play.
Our ruck division has a clear advantage if Mumford’s appeal is unsuccessful, so I would expect Hudson and (probably) Minson to wear down the Sydney 2nd stringers, giving an armchair ride for our run and carriers to provide some quality supply to the likes of Hall, Hahn, Murphy, and the rest of the mid-sized forward brigade. It is mandatory that we bring the necessary defensive mindset to the table this week, and if we do I expect the Dogs to prevent the threat of Sydney spreading clear and initiating defensive thrusts from their half-back line.
Verdict:
Bulldogs by 27 points
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Saturday 2.10pm, Manuka Oval, Canberra
Last time they met:
Round 10, 2009, Manuka Oval, Canberra
Western Bulldogs 18.9:117 def. Sydney 12.5:77
After an opening 20 minutes dominated by the Swans, the Bulldogs clicked into gear and proceeded to destroy Sydney with a devastating burst of 13 consecutive goals to kill off the contest by half time. The Bulldogs’ stoppage work in particular (led by Hudson’s dominance over Jolly), and their ability to spread quickly from the contest, was pivotal to the onslaught. Sydney somewhat restored the midfield balance after half time but it was too little too late, with the Bulldogs easing to a very comfortable 40 point victory. Prior to this match, the Bulldogs reversed a Sydney 5-match winning streak with 3 victories against the Swans throughout 2008, one each at the SCG, Manuka and at the MCG in a cut-throat semi-final.
Form Guide:
Western Bulldogs – 8th (4 wins – 3 losses): 114.6%
The Bulldogs’ form-line has spluttered throughout season 2010 to date, with losses against fellow contenders Collingwood, Brisbane and (unluckily) St Kilda off-set by expected victories against Richmond, Hawthorn, Adelaide and (luckily) Melbourne. Whilst the premiership season is a marathon and not a sprint, the Bulldogs do have some concerns in their ability to run out matches, as evidenced by poor fade-outs in all matches except the Hawthorn, Richmond and Adelaide games. Even in the last gasp victory against Melbourne, the Bulldogs were soundly beaten for run through the corridor in the last qtr up until the last 5 minutes (Melbourne had 24 more disposals in the last qtr), and the ultimately gutsy nature of this victory will hopefully provide the spark that the Bulldogs need to sustain a run of more consistent form (especially over the course of 120 minutes in individual games).
Sydney – 4th (5 wins – 2 losses): 124.0%
Sydney had barely put a foot wrong and were leading all-comers on the ladder up until meeting the Geelong juggernaut head-on at Kardinia Park on the weekend, whereby they were given a footballing masterclass. Their midfield was annihilated by Geelong, resulting in a pitiful supply of ball inside their forward 50 and no opportunity for any scoreboard impact whatsoever. Up until then, Sydney were terrific in dismantling poorer teams (West Coast, Adelaide, Richmond), and also in providing far more run and carry than they have previously shown in recent seasons. The return to full form and fitness of Malceski and Kennelly, in addition to the run that the likes of R Shaw and Mattner already provide, has given Sydney fantastic transition from defence to attack against the more mediocre teams in the competition. The big question moving forward is whether the Geelong game was an aberration or the previous games were not a true indicator of the Swans’ improved form in 2010 – a mixture of the two I suspect.
The Team Stats:
Western Bulldogs:
Ranked 1st in Kicks Per Game
Ranked 1st in Marks Per Game
Ranked 4th in Disposals Per Game
Ranked 4th in First Possessions Per Game
Ranked 5th in Clearances Per Game
Ranked 5th in Inside 50’s Per Game
Ranked 2nd in Rebound 50’s Per Game
Ranked 5th in Contested Possessions Per Game
Ranked 16th in Frees Against Per Game
Ranked 15th in Hitouts Per Game
Ranked 12th in One-Percenters Per Game
There is no doubt that the Bulldog’s lack run and carry in 2010 compared to 2009, and the above statistics bear this out. Whilst we are still very strong in at the contests and clearances (despite rarely winning the actual hitout battle), our ball use has increased significantly by foot at the expense of by hand, and the huge increase in marks is reflective of us adopting much more tempo-oriented brand of football, holding onto possession much more with short kicks. Some of this can definitely be attributed to the lack of midfield rotations we’ve had at our disposal in the first 7 weeks of the season thus far.
Sydney
Ranked 5th in Goals Per Game
Ranked 1st in least Opponent Disposals Per Game
Ranked 1st in least Opponent Clearances Per Game
Ranked 15th in Tackles Per Game
Ranked 13th in Contested Possessions Per Game
Ranked 16th in One-Percenters Per Game
Sydney has been a very interesting team to watch this season compared to recent seasons. An element of flair and excitement has definitely crept into Sydney’s game style in 2010, with far more spread from the contests, which combined with terrific run and overlap from half-back, has resulted in far more potency in attack this season. Interestingly, the traditional Sydney blueprint indicators, tackling intensity and contested possessions, are both well down this season compared to recent history.
Semi-interesting factoid:
In 3 of the past 4 matches against the Swans, the Bulldogs have kicked something like 23 goals to 2 in second quarters combined – from memory it was 8 goals to 1 at the SCG 2008, 7 goals to 1 at Manuka 2008 and 8 goals to zip at Manuka 2009. Each of these matches started the same way – Sydney dominated large parts of the opening quarter only to be completely blown off the park in the 2nd. The only match that went against this trend was the semi-final in 2008, when we waited until the 3rd qtr to blow the Swans off the park (6 goals to zip from memory). All these matches have shown that the Bulldogs possess a couple of extra gears that Sydney has been simply unable to go close to matching over the course of 120 minutes.
The Selection Table
Western Bulldogs:
Some interesting selection dilemmas for the Dogs MC this week. Are Johnson, Moles and Eagleton fully recovered from their injuries? Which one of Minson or Roughead will return to play 2nd fiddle in the ruck? Will Stack and/or Hill keep his place in the team? The Seadogs form has collectively been good, but there hasn’t been a standout performer this season to date. I suspect there will be only one change to the line-up (Minson for Stack is my guess). I would personally be against this, but if Johnson is fully fit, he’ll probably come in for Hill.
Sydney:
Sydney have just as many issues at selection table. With Mumford out, Mike Pyke will more than likely get a run this week, and will share the rucking duties with Jesse White you’d imagine (Goodes might also pinch hit on occasions). McGlynn would also be very close to a senior recall and would be an immediate inclusion if he has fully recovered from his quad injury. Jetta has been in poor form the last couple of weeks but I think his explosive line-breaking pace will see him remain in the team this week. Craig Bolton is a big loss to their defensive structure and will be out for quite some time.
Key Match-ups
Cooney v Jack
Jack is now the premier run-with option for Sydney and is one of the most improved players in the competition. He is extremely fit, dedicated to the task and can also run offensively. He will give Cooney a solid test this week, who has leant to handle the hard tags better with each passing season. Jarrad McVeigh might be another option on Cooney, who torched the Coondog in Canberra two years ago kicking 6 goals working off him the other way (Coons was hampered by a knee injury at the time to be fair) – aside from this match, Cooney has been a major weapon against the Swans in the last few encounters, which is why I think Sydney will assign their premier lock-down option onto him.
Griffen v McVeigh
I think Sydney will opt for McVeigh to go a semi-tag on Griffen in the hope that he can exploit Griff going the other way. I can’t see this working as McVeigh is not in as great form as he has been the last couple of seasons and I don’t think he will be able to provide the necessary offensive rebound drive – in truth he will be hard-pressed just to stop Griffen from imposing himself all over this contest with his propensity to run and carry and then distribute with precision further upfield.
Hall v Grundy/LRT
With Craig Bolton out of the team, Grundy should get first crack at Bustling. He is very quick off the mark and deceptively strong, so our midfield supply to Hall will need to be pin-point in order to overcome one of the most improved players in the competition. LRT will probably get some minutes on Hall as well, or worst case will zone off his direct opponent to try and isolate Hall 2-on-1. Good clean supply into our forward 50 and Hall could kick a bag.
Lake v Bradshaw
Bradshaw looks a natural match-up for Lake this week. Bradshaw is a very good player but was completely starved of opportunities against the Cats. Lake’s ability to ready the ball in flight and his pace to go with almost every tall forward in the competition (including Bradshaw) makes him a good option. If White spends more time forward instead of in the ruck, Lake might take him and rely on Morris to try and shut down Bradshaw but I don’t think Sydney can afford to have White spending too much time forward with Mumford rubbed out this week (assuming his appeal is not successful).
Boyd/Cross v Kirk/J Bolton
Both Kirk and J Bolton have been mighty warriors for Sydney but they have showed signs of slowing down this season. Sydney’s reliance on winning the contested possession has lessened against poorer teams but it could bite them on the backside against the better teams – it certainly did against the Cats. If Boyd and Cross can decisively win the clearance and contested possession battle and feed the likes of Cooney, Griffen, Gilbee and Harbrow to run and distribute in space, it will go a very long way to the Dogs winning this match comfortably.
Hargrave v O’Keefe
I think Shaggy would benefit enormously by being assigned a specific defensive match-up this week, and O’Keefe represents a great challenge for him. O’Keefe’s greatest asset is his ability to gut-run all lengths of the ground – he’s not especially quick but he is amazingly fit and can run opponents into the dirt. Perhaps Morris could also be assigned to him in bursts but I have someone else in mind for the human glove…
Morris v Goodes
Goodes has a stinker against Geelong but was in great form prior to that. He has definitely been playing deeper this season and has helped structure up the Swans by providing a mobile target across half-forward. Morris was outstanding against Melbourne last week and was a major factor in keeping us in the match for so long. His dedication to the defensive task and his pace off the mark make him the ideal match-up for Goodes IMO.
Hill/Aker/Higgins v Malceski/R Shaw/Kennelly
Dangerous area of the ground for the Bulldogs and probably the area of biggest concern. If our mid-sized forwards don’t create enough defensive pressure, Sydney’s half back runners could have a field day. If we bring the defensive intensity to the table we had against Adelaide and St Kilda, this will help nullify Sydney’s rebound drive and subsequent ability to spread free of the congestion.
Where it will be won or lost:
As with most weeks, the midfield battle will decide the outcome of this week’s match. Both Sydney and the Bulldogs have weapons up forward, so it will be paramount for the winning team to win the midfield battle and ensure that clean ball is distributed into forward 50 so that defenders can be isolated one-out against their direct opponents more often than not. Neither team has what you’d call terrific crumbers so I can see more goals from marks/free kicks being scored this week than from open play.
Our ruck division has a clear advantage if Mumford’s appeal is unsuccessful, so I would expect Hudson and (probably) Minson to wear down the Sydney 2nd stringers, giving an armchair ride for our run and carriers to provide some quality supply to the likes of Hall, Hahn, Murphy, and the rest of the mid-sized forward brigade. It is mandatory that we bring the necessary defensive mindset to the table this week, and if we do I expect the Dogs to prevent the threat of Sydney spreading clear and initiating defensive thrusts from their half-back line.
Verdict:
Bulldogs by 27 points