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Ozza
19-05-2010, 12:46 PM
Round 9: North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – Etihad Stadium – 2:10pm Saturday 22nd May


Last time they Met:

Round: 13 Venue: M.C.G. Date: 28-Jun-2009 2:10 PM Attendance: 31,470

North Melbourne
4.4 8.8 11.13 12.14.86
Western Bulldogs
6.1 9.4 13.6 17.6.108

Brownlow Medal
3:Matthew Boyd (WB) 2 : Daniel Giansiracusa (WB) 1:Robert Murphy (WB)

Last time around, North Melbourne hung in there for most of the day and it wasn’t until a burst by the Bulldogs early in the final term that we truly broke away. Giansiracusa, although injuring his knee that day – kicked 3 crucial goals and the Dogs ran away with a 22 point victory. It was the second time we beat North last year – after having a very ordinary record against North Melbourne is recent times where they had beaten us on 5 successive occasions.

Formguide:

After a shaky start to the season, where they lost to Port Adelaide and were trounced by the Saints, North Melbourne have won 4 of their last 6 and sit just outside the 8 level on points with Brisbane. Last weekend North got the jump on Adelaide by as much as 53 points – before completely stopping in the last term and letting the Crows get back within 3 goals to finish.

The Bulldogs, as we know, have not played quite to the level we would have expected after the previous two seasons, and the pre-season – but are now sitting 4th on Percentage with 5 wins and 3 losses. Last week versus Sydney – the Bulldogs, despite missing Griffen as a late withdrawal, and losing Bob Murphy during the game – were, on the most part impressive, and won comfortably.

Current betting shows the Dogs as $1.25 favourites, with the bookies offering $4.00 for a North Melbourne win.

The Selection Table:

A very interesting week in terms of selection. Both sides will be forced to turn over players due to injury and also potentially have some players returning from mid to long-term injuries – adding a degree of difficulty to this Match Preview!

For North Melbourne, David Hale would be expected miss this week with a back injury sustained against the Crows but has an obvious replacement in Hamish McIntosh who was a late withdrawal in that game. Additionally, although Drew Petrie is listed as still being unavailable for 1-2 weeks with the broken foot he sustained in pre-season training – there has been some talk that he may return this week – so Petrie may well be in the mix as a ‘maybe’. In the VFL on the weekend, Corey Jones amassed 27 possessions and booted 3 goals 7 behinds for North Ballarat. Jones is a crafty, experienced forward who may well return on the back of that form.

For the Bulldogs, Ryan Griffen is expected to return from the back soreness that kept him out of last week’s game. Liam Picken is now off the injury list and is likely to return by coming straight back into the senior side. In terms of ‘Outs’ – Robert Murphy will miss three weeks after a knee operation, and if Picken does return I would be inclined to think Josh Hill will be omitted. With Brennan Stack playing well last weekend in a not too dissimilar role Josh may be the other one. Another school of thought is that with two midfielders returning – a midfielder such as Nathan Eagleton or Dylan Addison could miss – although we don’t tend to drop experienced players often, and Addison should get a run with role this week – so I’ll stick with Hill being ‘Out’.

Target Players:

Rather than putting in key match ups – I thought I’d change it up slightly and talk about Target players for each team and talk about what they bring to their side, how they go about their business, and how teams will tackle the task of limiting their influence


North Melbourne

Brent Harvey- ‘Boomer’ Harvey is the ‘no-brainer’ target player amongst the Roos. Harvey will spend most of his time in the midfield, will run and carry, and will look to push forward at times. He has a nasty habit of playing very well against the bulldogs – although Liam Picken did an excellent job against him in Round 2 last year. In their return bout – Picken was targeted physically in order to get Harvey some space and Picken was as a result less effective the second time around.
If selected straight back into the team, Picken will go with Harvey in the midfield. However, if Harvey spends extended periods down forward, I’d like to see how Harbrow goes against him – as this might give us an indication as to Harbrow’s truly defensive capabilities and whether he can be called on for big stopping roles on quick midfield-type players if needed in future. Eg.. G.Ablett Jnr.

Daniel Wells – The much maligned Daniel Wells has found some excellent form in the past few weeks and when high on confidence can be a dangerous player. Wells is predominantly an outside player who uses the ball very well and is also a kicking player’. This season – of his 168 possessions, the break down has been 116 kicks, 52 handballs – and he has kicked 10 goals in his past 5 games – so Wells is obviously someone we want to restrict the North midfielders getting the ball to outside. Dylan Addison seems a good fit for this match up. Wells is not overly pacy – so I think Dylan can go with him, and Dylan’s style is to tackle and harass which Wells isn’t noted as dealing too well with.

Brady Rawlings: Rawlings is in career best form at present. Mark Robinson of the Herald-Sun labelled him as being in All-Australian contention – which I think is a bit of a stretch – but four 30+ possession games out of 8 reflects he is playing the ‘quarterback’ type role very well. I think Rawlings will start on Aker this week and try and run off him and set up the North Melbourne attacking moves. Hopefully Aker can make him accountable by getting to dangerous spots early and finding a goal or two.

Western Bulldogs

Adam Cooney – As always, Coons will get attention in the midfield. With Rawlings playing off half back these days, it may well be Levi Greenwood who gets the tagging job – which is a big task for an inexperienced player. Coons can get the ball inside and out and is dealing with the tags better and better – getting hold of Jones of St.Kilda recently and Kirk on the weekend – two of the best in the business.

Barry Hall – Baz certainly got off the chain last week and made a mess of Sydney. The way North plays is a fairly open game at times, which suits us moving the ball in quickly to Hall. If Baz gets some good supply – then it’s hard to imagine him not having another good day. Scott Thompson is a very good full back and his strength is in the one on one contest. He is a real scrapper, very competitive and fierce – but will need some help from McMahon (who reads the play well and can work off his man to be third man up) and possibly Grima too – who is versatile for a big man and plays fairly deep.

Matthew Boyd – Boyd was awarded 3 votes in last seasons round 13 clash and is a key player at our stoppages. Back 2 weeks now from his broken hand – he should be 100% in terms of fitness and I expect him to go head to head with Andrew ‘spitter’ Swallow. Swallow is North’s best at the stoppages and a very genuine inside midfielder. The winner of this dual will have had a pretty significant say in the outcome of the game.


CRYSTAL BALL:

As I said earlier, North play a fairly open type of game under Brad Scott. They are a young side, particularly in the midfield with Ziebell, Cunnington, Bastinac and Greenwood – and whilst it is an impressive young group – the Bulldogs midfield is seasoned and strong. Cooney, Griffen, Boyd, Gia, Cross and Higgins should overwhelm the younger Roos as the game goes on and our superior ball use and body strength should prove too much for North.

In the Ruck – McIntosh and Goldstein are a good combination – both are mobile and athletic. Whereas Minson and Hudson are strong bullocking ruckman – and an underrated combination. I expect this to be a fairly even contest in the ruck – with Hudson’s recent good form maybe giving us a slight edge.

In terms of forwards and backs – North struggle to kick goals – and Lake, Morris and the ever-improving Williams are unlikely to get outpointed in the air. To score heavily North Melbourne will have to move the ball very very quickly and try to have multiple goal kickers with their smaller players Thomas, Gartlett and Harvey chiming in. Up forward for the Bulldogs, we still have yet to get an even contribution this season apart from the Richmond game. With Picken and Griffen returning – Akermanis, Higgins and Giansiracusa should be spending more time forward and will provide a serious challenge for North’s relatively tall backline that contains Thompson, Grima, Hansen and Pratt.

Verdict

The Bulldogs are a more balanced outfit, with far more talent, strength and experience across the board. This is not a game to drop. Bulldogs by 41 points.

bornadog
19-05-2010, 01:34 PM
Well done and another quality report.

Petrie and Harvey always play well against us, but I am not expecting Petrie to play. Will Picken pick up Harvey, or will Addo run with him?

I would like us to get a good start in this game and really shut them out of it early, a bit like Collingwood did.

Mofra
19-05-2010, 01:48 PM
Good report - interesting news about Petrie.
Will be an interetsing one to see if Picken comes straight back in; he runs with Boyd/Cross during the pre-season so his fitness shouldn't be as much as an issue as it would for other players, but being out of touch could get found out a little early as Harvey is one smart cookie.

stefoid
19-05-2010, 02:00 PM
Petrie would be the perfect opponent for willaims to line up on.

Ozza
19-05-2010, 02:11 PM
I think if Petrie was to be back this week - we'll probably here about it either today or early tomorrow - but seeing as he is listed as 1-2 Weeks - maybe its unlikely.

They can be a pretty big side at times Nth Melb - with 4 tall defenders, usually 2 rucks plus Hale who is ruck sized but more a forward - and Petrie also. As of last week they added Josh Smith to the mix also who is Centre Half forward.

I think Williams will get Josh Smith.

Mantis
19-05-2010, 02:21 PM
Reports on the NM BF board that Petrie trained very strongly today and completed all match simulation work... I guess how he pulls up tomorrow dictates if he is a chance to play this week.

Good work on the preview Ozza... a good read. Like the thought that Harbrow will follow Harvey around for a bit, I think a run with role on a like type is a good way to ease Harbs into the midfield.

Go_Dogs
19-05-2010, 02:29 PM
Great work on the preview Ozza.


Always a tough game against North, and I'm not expecting it to be too much different this week. Given how poorly they ran out the game last week against the Crows, I'd be pretty confident of us being able to run them off their feet. If they go with Petrie and McIntosh that will further help us in that area.

Ozza
19-05-2010, 02:36 PM
Interested in the opinion of the forum - would you prefer if Petrie played?

Pro's for the dogs:
- He hasn't played in 8 weeks.
- He may have to play deep forward - and this may allow Brian to carve him up.
- A taller forward line seems to suit us with Williams, Lake, Morris all down there.

Cons:
- He can play - and plays well against us!
- He may actually be pretty fit, Petrie has a very strong work ethic - I drive past Arden street nearly every day and have on few occasions seen him out running laps on his lonesome.
- His leadership and experience is a plus.

Go_Dogs
19-05-2010, 02:54 PM
Interested in the opinion of the forum - would you prefer if Petrie played?

Given their inability to run out matches, a big YES from me.

Great player, and has an amazing record against us - but any big bloke in his come back is going to take a bit of time to adjust, and will certainly not help their lack of run issues.

LostDoggy
19-05-2010, 06:03 PM
Good read Ozza ... any inside mail on Picko

LostDoggy
19-05-2010, 06:12 PM
Good Report. Don't think we have any issue about Petrie playing he's not due back for a few weeks.

"Vice-captain Drew Petrie will rejoin his teammates on Wednesday for his first full session since breaking a bone in his left foot in late March.

McDonald said it would be a “gradual progression” for Petrie, who was likely to return to the senior side by round 11."

Source: http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/94577/default.as

Sedat
19-05-2010, 06:15 PM
Great preview Ozza and gives those of us who have seen very little of North this season a much clearer picture of their modus operandi under Brad Scott.

Really happy that Picken has passed his fitness test with flying colours - he's a good match up for Harvey as he can match him for pace and fitness. Wells is the worry for me - he's on very good form by all accounts and he has some serious form against us in recent seasons. Being the confidence player that he is, I hope we put some defensive work into him to make sure he is kept under some control. He's similar to Aaron Davey in that he can get it 20 times and cut you up.

Mofra
20-05-2010, 12:54 PM
Radio this morning mentioned both ruckmen for North could be playing under duress after struggling during training. Could be a good sign - we have two physical ruckmen who can take advantage of any weakness there.

Cyberdoggie
20-05-2010, 01:25 PM
Good report Ozza.

Not sure i agree on Harbrow moving to a tagging role.
I like to think those sort of roles are best left to players like Picken and Addison who aren't as creative. We need Harbrow running off and creating. Also don't think he is strong enough to tag. Harvey and more so a player like Ablett would just push off and accelerate away from him. While Harbs has improved a lot as a defender, he's not particularly strong in the body work area.

For me i think small defenders, small dangerous forwards and inside mids are the areas where we don't have a lot of depth. North like Collingwood have some dangerous small forwards that have bothered us on previous occasions. I'm sure Harbrow will have his hands full on Saturday afternoon.

Ozza
20-05-2010, 01:36 PM
Good report Ozza.

Not sure i agree on Harbrow moving to a tagging role.
I like to think those sort of roles are best left to players like Picken and Addison who aren't as creative. We need Harbrow running off and creating. Also don't think he is strong enough to tag. Harvey and more so a player like Ablett would just push off and accelerate away from him. While Harbs has improved a lot as a defender, he's not particularly strong in the body work area.

For me i think small defenders, small dangerous forwards and inside mids are the areas where we don't have a lot of depth. North like Collingwood have some dangerous small forwards that have bothered us on previous occasions. I'm sure Harbrow will have his hands full on Saturday afternoon.

I agree that Harbrow's best role is as a creative running backman. No doubts there whatsoever.

My thought process on this was - obviously Picken will be the best fit for the role on Harvey if Picko plays - but if Harvey is pushing forward, then it may be an opportunity to see how Harbrow goes in a lock down defensive role - so that if an Ablett or similar is getting a hold of us in future then there is a plan B and plan C. Was more a thought to perhaps try something at a later stage in the game if we are in control.

LostDoggy
20-05-2010, 02:35 PM
I agree that Harbrow's best role is as a creative running backman. No doubts there whatsoever.

My thought process on this was - obviously Picken will be the best fit for the role on Harvey if Picko plays - but if Harvey is pushing forward, then it may be an opportunity to see how Harbrow goes in a lock down defensive role - so that if an Ablett or similar is getting a hold of us in future then there is a plan B and plan C. Was more a thought to perhaps try something at a later stage in the game if we are in control.

Actually, contrary to CyberDoggie's point, Harbrow has demonstrated ample tackling/tagging strength even in his small-forward days when he would chase and harass(otherwise he shouldn't be playing back anyway).

I think he would be an exciting match-up for someone like Gazz because he would have the pace to go with him, and have enough explosive ball-winning nous and strength through the hips to win enough of his own possessions to keep Gablett honest. Probably one of the only players in the whole league with the leg speed and core strength to go head-to-head with Jr. in the clinches (in bursts).

Only query would be around his tank, but he doesn't have to do this for the whole match, he just has to be one of the options to rotate onto Gazz (and keep him guessing).

Mantis
20-05-2010, 03:11 PM
I think he would be an exciting match-up for someone like Gazz because he would have the pace to go with him, and have enough explosive ball-winning nous and strength through the hips to win enough of his own possessions to keep Gablett honest. Probably one of the only players in the whole league with the leg speed and core strength to go head-to-head with Jr. in the clinches (in bursts).

Only query would be around his tank, but he doesn't have to do this for the whole match, he just has to be one of the options to rotate onto Gazz (and keep him guessing).

In the last 5 or 10 minutes of our PF against Geelong in 2008 Harbrow took on GAjr in a number of 1-on-1 contests thru the middle of the ground and more than held his own... At that point I knew we had a real player in the making.

I wouldn't mind Harbrow going toe to toe with little Gary again later this year.... And NO I don't mean on the training track on the GC.

Mofra
20-05-2010, 03:40 PM
In the last 5 or 10 minutes of our PF against Geelong in 2008 Harbrow took on GAjr in a number of 1-on-1 contests thru the middle of the ground and more than held his own... At that point I knew we had a real player in the making.

I wouldn't mind Harbrow going toe to toe with little Gary again later this year.... And NO I don't mean on the training track on the GC.
His don't argue on Scarlett in Q4 of the same game made everyone take notice of him. 'Twas on the wing too after a daring run forward.

bornadog
20-05-2010, 04:57 PM
Good Report. Don't think we have any issue about Petrie playing he's not due back for a few weeks.

"Vice-captain Drew Petrie will rejoin his teammates on Wednesday for his first full session since breaking a bone in his left foot in late March.

McDonald said it would be a “gradual progression” for Petrie, who was likely to return to the senior side by round 11."

Source: http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/94577/default.as

Petrie isnot in and Hale also didn't come up. I notice Campbell is in , so Harbrow may go to him.

Ghost Dog
21-05-2010, 01:34 PM
[QUOTE=Ozza;153752]I agree that Harbrow's best role is as a creative running backman. No doubts there whatsoever.

It's quite a compliment to Harbrow that people want to play him in other parts of the ground. But I agree with Ozza. Premierships are won in defence. How good is he?
I'm going to write a folk song about Jarrod Harbrow! (joke )

Liam will make a big difference. will be great to have him back