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Greystache
29-06-2010, 10:41 AM
When and Where

Friday, July 2
7:40pm
MCG

Ladder Positions
Western Bulldogs 5th- 8 wins 5 losses 129.52%
Hawthorn 8th- 7 wins 6 losses 102.94%


Last time they met:

Round 3- April 11 2010

Western Bulldogs 2.4 6.5 8.14 14.16 (100)
Hawthorn 3.3 5.7 8.9 12.12 (84)

GOALS
Western Bulldogs: Hall 6, Murphy 2, Harbrow, Giansiracusa, Higgins, Griffen, Hahn, Hill
Hawthorn: Rioli 4, Roughead 4, Ellis, Renouf, Morton, Hodge

BEST
Western Bulldogs: Griffen, Gilbee, Boyd, Hall, Cooney, Minson, Harbrow, Cross
Hawthorn: Rioli, Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead, Lewis


Last 5 games head to head

Round 3 2010- WB 100 def Haw 84
Round 14 2009- WB 133 def Haw 45
Qualifying Final 2008- Haw 127 def WB 76
Round 10 2008- WB 106 def Haw 74
Round 21 2007- Haw 151 def 67


Form leading in:

Hawthorn

WWWWW

After a poor start to the season where they were 1-6 Hawthorn have found their winning ways again and now find themselves 7-6 and sitting in 8th place. Their much publicized injury list has diminished and they are almost back to full strength. At their best they have a strong midfield that wins clearances and contested football, a disciplined structure that relies heavily on team work rather than individual brilliance, and a forward line in Franklin, Roughead, and Rioli that can tear a team apart on their day.

Hawthorn showed glimpses of the form that took them to the 2008 premiership against Essendon before the break, they were tough in the contested situations, used the ball cleanly, and were playing the aggressive style that coined the phrase “unsociable football”. Lance Franklin was back at his absolute best which is something that’s been lacking and their fringe players such as Osborne and Muston stood up when the team needed them. Have they turned the corner, or are they merely beating middle of the road sides? This week should go some way to answering the question.


Western Bulldogs

WLLWW

The Bulldogs form continues to ebb and flow in 2010, disappointing performances against Essendon and Collingwood have been followed by thumping wins against a struggling Brisbane and West Coast. The balance of the team has looked better in recent weeks with the rapid development of Jarrad Grant as the lead up forward allowing Murphy to add some class and creativity in defence, Wood has added extra run to a defence that was looking a little stagnant, and with key players in Johnson and Ward starting to overcome serious injuries could this be the time the Bulldogs start to make their mark on a season that promised so much after an impressive pre-season.


Potential Ins & Outs

Hawthorn- Josh Gibson is a chance to return from a serious hamstring injury although it appears likely he will play in the VFL this week, Rhan Hooper is a chance to regain his spot, but most likely we won’t see many changes from the team the defeated Essendon by 16 points.

No change

Western Bulldogs- Callan Ward is a chance to come in for his first game of the year after overcoming a groin problem and having played 3 games at VFL Reserves and Seniors, Tom Williams may return from a slight hamstring injury suffered against Brisbane, as may Shaun Higgins who rolled an ankle on some questionable turf at Etihad against Collingwood. Sam Reid may also come into calculations having overcome off-season groin surgery, along with the potential promotion of Andrejs Everitt, Dylan Addison, and Tim Callan.

In- Ward, Williams, Higgins
Out- Stack, Eagleton, Hill.


Key Match ups

Franklin vs Lake- This contest will go a long way to deciding the outcome of the match, if Franklin gets loose and kicks a bag Hawthorn will win, but if Lake can continue to dominate Franklin the way he has in the past 3 games (including the NAB cup earlier this year) the Hawks will struggle to kick a winning score. Franklin was back to his best last week, he pushed up to the wing and dragged the other forwards with him effectively creating the old Pagans Paddock which allowed him the space to burn off opponents with his pace. He has a bigger tank than Lake and would be well advised to try and run Brian around, but as we’ve seen in recent times Franklin has continued to try and outmuscle Lake which has played into Brian’s hands.


Roughead vs Morris-

Roughead’s form has been nothing to write home about this season, last week he looked badly out of touch and even slightly disinterested at times, but you can’t take him lightly as he looms as a potential match winner should he play at his best. Morris has been solid if not spectacular against Roughead, 3cm shorter, 10kg lighter, and without the vertical leap Roughead possesses, Morris gives 100% all the time and ensures any kicks Roughead gets he earns.


Rioli vs Harbrow/Picken-

Rioli has been more style than substance in 2010, pre-season injury has impacted his fitness reducing his time in the midfield meaning he is spending more time forward. Harbrow has the pace and agility to go with Rioli but his defensive capabilities continue to remain a question mark, Harbrow did quite well in round 3 but Rioli still kicked 4. I think we may see Picken go to Rioli to play a pure lockdown role, and as we have seen in the past year and a half anyone being targeted by Liam will have to work hard for any possessions they get.


Hall vs Gilham

Much has been made of whether Hall has helped or hindered the Bulldogs structure but regardless Hall’s form has been superb all season, rarely putting in a poor performance he sits second on the Coleman medal count with 46 goals. Gilham doesn’t have the size, pace, strength, or ability to go with Hall and will be reliant on team mates coming in to double team him and also for the midfield to pressure the ball carrier to restrict the delivery to Barry. If Hall is left one out often enough he could be in for another bag similar to the 6 he kicked in round 3.

Hodge vs Picken/Higgins

Hodge will probably start in the midfield but as has been proven many times before when he’s faced with a close checking tagger he struggles to have an impact, Picken is the perfect match up, he has the endurance and physicality to make things tough for Luke. Hodge’s relief valve when struggling is to be released into the back line as a free man to go second up and sweep the ball off half back, when this occurs the best way to counter it is to position a dangerous small forward alongside Hodge to force him to be accountable and affect his freedom to zone off. Higgins (when in form) is the ideal match up, he can command the ball in dangerous areas, and if not given respect he can kick goals in quick succession, see Milburn in the 2008 prelim final. This will then free up Picken to match up Rioli.

Midfield vs Midfield

Along with the Lake Franklin duel this will go a long way to deciding the result, Hawthorn’s midfield is solid rather than brilliant, not blessed with pace in Mitchell, Sewell, and Hodge they will look to win the ball in close and feed it out to their receivers in Ellis, Bateman, Young, and Burgoyne. The Bulldogs midfield have the edge in pace with Cooney and Griffen, along with in and under types in Cross and Boyd. The People’s Beard with his crash and bash rucking style along with his unique ability to win contested possessions and fire out a handball to a team mate will be an important factor.


Where the game will be won and lost

Hawthorn’s forward line always looms as a danger, but the Bulldogs defence won’t be overwhelmed, averaging a miserly 83 points per game they rank as the second most frugal defence in 2010. Last week Hawthorn pushed their forwards right up the ground adding to their defensive zone and allowing Franklin to isolate his opponent in space. Lake doesn’t have the tank to run with Franklin so I think he’s best placed to sit back and not follow him outside of goal scoring range (60m) and instead fill the hole to prevent Hawthorn bombing the ball long into space. The Bulldogs could use a double teaming structure in Lake picking him up when inside 60m, then a more aerobically capable defender in either Williams or Everitt (should the selectors go with him instead) to pick him up around the wing.

Hawthorn is still heavily reliant on the midfield zone and press to cover up some deficiencies in their defence and lack of pace through the midfield. If the Bulldogs can work their way through the zone and deliver the football with efficiency inside 50m players like Ladson, Guerra, Murphy, and Gilham will be exposed, if they can’t and are forced to bomb the ball long under pressure Hawthorn will hurt them on the rebound. The Bulldogs are quicker and more skilful through the midfield and I think we’ll see Harbrow push up to the wing and midfield where possible depending on match ups to expose them further. Defensive pressure in the middle of the ground will be imperative, when playing well Hawthorn pressure the ball carrier as well as anyone, the Bulldogs can be hit and miss in this area, when they make it a focus they are excellent, when they feel it’s a game they should win they often drop right off, they can’t afford to be slack otherwise it will hurt them.


Verdict

Hawthorn are yet to beat anyone above 6th, some of their wins have been hard fought victories against relatively poor opposition, and they still lack strength in depth and quality defenders. The Bulldogs are also yet to take a big scalp in 2010 and can’t afford to drop winnable games such as this. Hawthorn are flat track bullies, Bulldogs with too much class.

Bulldogs by 36 points.

LostDoggy
29-06-2010, 11:25 AM
Good preview Grey.

If it rains who do you think this will advantage? Us or them?

Greystache
29-06-2010, 11:31 AM
Good preview Grey.

If it rains who do you think this will advantage? Us or them?

It's an interesting one, I think probably them. They are more an in an under type of team, and although that's an area we've improved greatly in recent seasons, we still play our best football when we take the game on with run and carry and quick ball movement which is hampered by the wet more. Also Franklin isn't so much an overhead marking forward so I don't think he'll be as affected as your traditional key forward (such as Hall) might be.

Mofra
29-06-2010, 12:17 PM
Will be interesting to see how Hodge is used, considering he has been in super form this year. If he's moved to the backline I'd love to see Gia go to him; when he plays a defensive forward type role he can still manage to snare 3 goals/3 assists. I'd play Boyd/Cross against him head to head depoending on rotations if Hodge plays in the centre, to free up Picken to take Rioli.

I hoep Buddy plays high & Lake doesn't get sucked into following him. Lake has often allowed players to take the ball if they run hard enough, provided it's in a part of the ground they are unlikely to do much damage in. Buddy has the athleticism, but Lake has the smarts.

Mantis
29-06-2010, 12:23 PM
While this games looms as a big test for Hawthorn (no big scalps), it's pretty much the same story for us. We are yet to beat a 'contender' and although we have had chances to do so we haven't been able to seal the deal.

We should be at (or extremely close to) full strength for this clash which should mean that we will be good enough to beat the Hawks. As per normal we need to win the midfield and we will be at an advantage here as our rucks should get one over the Hawks duo, but the ground level battles will be intriguing. The Hawks have a very solid midfield group meaning we will need big games from the usual suspects (Cooney, Boyd, Griffen, Cross, etc)

How we match up/ contain the Hawks forwards will be interesting. I guess if we cut down the supply it will surely help, but Franklin & Rioli are in great form and have been helped out over the past couple games by Muston & Osborne. Osborne can be one who gets 'off the leash' as he proved when he kicked 4 important goals agaisnt us in the 08 QF, Shaggy the one who was torched. Roughead can also cause problems, but his radar has been well off over recent weeks, but as previously mentioned he is to good to discard from calculations.

We really need to win this one to push towards a top 4 spot and to distance ourselves from the teams around us. We will be looking for a lift across the board as our form in the first 13 games has been very patchy. I think all of us having been hoping that we would get to the mid-season break in reasonable shape and then make a run for it in the 2nd half of the year, I guess that starts Friday night.... and although our season won't be cooked if we lose this one we can't afford to drop this type of game.

Greystache
29-06-2010, 12:43 PM
Will be interesting to see how Hodge is used, considering he has been in super form this year. If he's moved to the backline I'd love to see Gia go to him; when he plays a defensive forward type role he can still manage to snare 3 goals/3 assists. I'd play Boyd/Cross against him head to head depoending on rotations if Hodge plays in the centre, to free up Picken to take Rioli.

I hoep Buddy plays high & Lake doesn't get sucked into following him. Lake has often allowed players to take the ball if they run hard enough, provided it's in a part of the ground they are unlikely to do much damage in. Buddy has the athleticism, but Lake has the smarts.

I was tossing up between Higgins and Gia for Hodge when he goes back, my concerns were Gia can go missing in patches even in games he plays well, where as you want someone who will make Hodge be accountable as much as possible. Higgins' fitness and form have been a concern this year so we may well end up seeing Gia given the chance if that's how the game plays out.

I've seen Hawthorn live 3 times this year (plus the NAB cup match) and I think a mistake that's been made when matching Hodge up is to go head to head with him. Hodge is the sort of player that if he gets the same number of possessions as a Boyd or a Cross will win the match up with his classy disposal, but I am yet to see him have any real impact on a contest when matched up on a player purely focussed on keeping him out of the game. I'd much prefer to see Picken initally go to Hodge if he lines up in the midfield and I would expect to see Hodge then move to defence half way through the first quarter when he's struggling to have any impact.

bornadog
29-06-2010, 01:10 PM
Thank you for another great review.

You have Williams coming in, where would you play him? I would prefer Williams on Roughead rather than Morris being stretched.

mjp
29-06-2010, 01:20 PM
I was tossing up between Higgins and Gia for Hodge when he goes back, my concerns were Gia can go missing in patches even in games he plays well, where as you want someone who will make Hodge be accountable as much as possible.


Gia has been getting these roles.

I don't see the Picken on Hodge match-up. Picken usually gets an outside running player - given the amount of time Rioli is spending up the ground as a hhf I think that will be his match-up. The only other gut runner Hawthorn have who *might* burn us is Bateman though he has been doing some tagging of his own lately.

Greystache
29-06-2010, 01:44 PM
I don't see the Picken on Hodge match-up. Picken usually gets an outside running player - given the amount of time Rioli is spending up the ground as a hhf I think that will be his match-up. The only other gut runner Hawthorn have who *might* burn us is Bateman though he has been doing some tagging of his own lately.

I don't see Hodge as an overly inside player, he wins his share of contested possessions but he isn't exactly an in and under type feeding the ball out at stoppages, that's the role of Mitchell and Sewell. Hodge tends to be on the end of these, or winning the ball from the spill of a marking contest. I think Picken is tailor made for him.

mjp
29-06-2010, 01:49 PM
Should we place a friendly wager on who he gets?

always right
29-06-2010, 02:13 PM
Nice summary Greystache.

Some intersting potential match-ups. Some of the obvious ones based on previous encounters are;
- Harbrow to Rioli when forward
- Lake to Buddy
- Morris to Roughy
- Picken to Bateman

I think we might see a number of changes this time around;
- Murphy would be a great match-up for Rioli if he goes forward which would free Harbrow up to run through the middle
- Lake and Morris might switch depending on how far and wide Buddy decides to roam
- Bateman might tag one of ours (Griffen or Boyd) leaving Picken to pick up Rioli if he plays in the middle.

There are so many important match-ups it makes your brain hurt. Osborne to Gilbee? Hahn or Gia to Hodge? Cooney head to head on Burgoyne or does Sewell pick him up. Crossy or Boyd to Mitchell? Does Williams play and if so, who on?

Going to be a ripper.

Greystache
29-06-2010, 03:06 PM
Thank you for another great review.

You have Williams coming in, where would you play him? I would prefer Williams on Roughead rather than Morris being stretched.

I have him coming in because that's what I think the selectors will do, but to be honest I think Wiliams actually unbalances the side. He isn't a rebounding defender of any note and we don't play him on the opposition key forwards because he gets exposed (see 15 gamer Gumbleton). I think this week he'll pick up the third tall forward who won't be anyone of great talent (eg Muston, Skipper, Renouf) or may be used to follow Buddy up the ground and leave Lake inside 50m, that way if he gets exposed it won't hurt us on the scoreboard.

In Roughead's current form I don't think he's likely to stretch Morris too much, but if he's getting away from him we might have to review.

Greystache
29-06-2010, 03:07 PM
Should we place a friendly wager on who he gets?

I'm not going to make a bet with someone I don't know, no offence. If Hodge starts in the midfield and Picken doesn't pick him up I'll happily acknowledge it.

Go_Dogs
29-06-2010, 03:35 PM
Great preview.


Massive danger game this week.

Hawthorn are still one of the most capable sides when they are up and running. Getting some dominance in the ruck to feed our midfield is crucial. Their backline is poo, so if we can generate enough clean ball forward of centre, we should win.

w3design
29-06-2010, 05:34 PM
Great preview.


Massive danger game this week.

Hawthorn are still one of the most capable sides when they are up and running. Getting some dominance in the ruck to feed our midfield is crucial. Their backline is poo, so if we can generate enough clean ball forward of centre, we should win.

Agree with this, our rucks are better we just need to make sure they give the Mids first use

mjp
29-06-2010, 05:48 PM
I'm not going to make a bet with someone I don't know, no offence. If Hodge starts in the midfield and Picken doesn't pick him up I'll happily acknowledge it.

None taken. It was going to be a non-monetary, friendly wager in any case.

For what it is worth, Hodge is 14th in the competition for clearances and 20th in the comp for 1st possession. This is remarkable given the amount of time he spends down back and really defines him as an inside, ball winning mid.

Both Cooney and Boyd head him in each of these categories...he is second to Mitchell out of all Hawks (based on averages not totals so Sewell's missed games are not an issue in these numbers).

Yankee Hotel Foxtrot
29-06-2010, 06:02 PM
Great Preview Greystache

I think this is the pivotal game of our 2010 campaign, both in terms of win-loss as well as self belief.

I believe that a loss here, will ultimately make a charge towards a top 4 spot- and therefore a genuine shot at the premiership- almost impossible.

We can probably only afford to lose 2 of our remaining 9 games to have a realistic shot at 4th spot. any more losses than 7 losses and we would have to rely on one of Collingwood or Freo having a very poor finish to the season.

I know the Hawks are yet to really defeat anyone of note, but either are we and in terms of each team's current momentum, I'd have the Hawks sitting slightly ahead of us right now.

Hotdog60
29-06-2010, 06:04 PM
We'll also see Skipper v Minson, big Will should be more than capable but Skip might be out to prove something. Should be interesting to see how it goes.

Dry Rot
29-06-2010, 11:20 PM
Thank you for another great review.



+1.

With a bye this week and having supped with the Devil (I went to an NRL game on the weekend) your review has got me back on track.

IMO this is a crunch game for both sides - if we can't beat them, then we might as well forget about this year.

I will have to put my intense admiration for Hodge aside for a week - great player.

Dry Rot
29-06-2010, 11:21 PM
Gia has been getting these roles.



How do you assess his performance in that role?

Sockeye Salmon
29-06-2010, 11:35 PM
How do you assess his performance in that role?

The last two weeks he has managed 45 touches (20 contested), 5 goals, 13 scoring assists and 0 clangers.

While doing this he has kept Travis Johnson to 13 touches and Shannon Hurn to 4 (Hurn was injured just after half time).



Offensively he did nothing against Collingwood but did keep Heath Shaw to 16 touches.



I reckon he's travelling alright at the minute.

Sedat
29-06-2010, 11:45 PM
The only other gut runner Hawthorn have who *might* burn us is Bateman though he has been doing some tagging of his own lately.
Picken did a terrific job on Bateman in Round 3 and shut him out of the game completely. Been out of the country most of June and missed all AFL matches since Round 10, so not sure how Bateman is tracking for the Hawks in their recent run of good form - if he's been used in run-with roles, agree that the only natural option for Picken is then to go to Rioli.

mjp
30-06-2010, 12:08 AM
How do you assess his performance in that role?

Good. Gia has his ups and downs and he is one player I will always expect 'more' from - but to be truthful he is having a pretty good year.

He won a mountain of possession earlier in the season as a mid...he has now gone forward and played a role up there. I will always be frustrated that a player of his ability is used in this way, but he is proving to be disciplined at doing it and kick a few goals at the same time.

Dry Rot
30-06-2010, 12:25 AM
Good. Gia has his ups and downs and he is one player I will always expect 'more' from - but to be truthful he is having a pretty good year.

He won a mountain of possession earlier in the season as a mid...he has now gone forward and played a role up there. I will always be frustrated that a player of his ability is used in this way, but he is proving to be disciplined at doing it and kick a few goals at the same time.

Thanks.

Understand the frustrated comment, but do we have a better player to fulfil that role?

LostDoggy
30-06-2010, 10:03 AM
Great Preview Greystache

I think this is the pivotal game of our 2010 campaign, both in terms of win-loss as well as self belief.

I believe that a loss here, will ultimately make a charge towards a top 4 spot- and therefore a genuine shot at the premiership- almost impossible.
We can probably only afford to lose 2 of our remaining 9 games to have a realistic shot at 4th spot. any more losses than 7 losses and we would have to rely on one of Collingwood or Freo having a very poor finish to the season.

I know the Hawks are yet to really defeat anyone of note, but either are we and in terms of each team's current momentum, I'd have the Hawks sitting slightly ahead of us right now.

Totally agree, this is what I have been thinking in the lead up to Friday night's game. It is just so important for the boys to make a statement, get their headspace right, and have a good win against a team whose confidence is up and who believe they are a chance for a great finish to the season. BTW - thanks for the great previous Greystache - I am constantly amazed at the knowledge and skills shown in these previews! Great work!

stefoid
30-06-2010, 11:33 AM
Roughead is rubbish at the moment, Id play hargrave on him so he can zone off, or williams if the match comittee decides to go that way.

Id play Morris on Rioli when forward, and picken on him when in the middle. Cant afford to let him get off the leash.

Hodge - dont favour hard-tagging guys who traditionally can shake off tags. Its a waste. If bateman/rioli or some other creative outside mid has been shown to be taggable in the past, then use picken on that player.

So Id let Boyd go head to head with Hodge and let them each have 30+ possession games. Sure , Hodge is going to use it better, but thats preferable to: hodge is tagged, has a 30+ game anyway, and his direct opponent gets 12 possessions.

LostDoggy
30-06-2010, 11:56 AM
There is another bloke in the middle for them who will require careful consideration - Burgoyne.

He is starting to run into form and is very clever at clearances close to goal. I reckon Picken needs to be on him.

I am comfortable with either Gilbee or Hargrave on Rioli at half forward - where he spends most of his time.

Mantis
30-06-2010, 12:18 PM
Roughead is rubbish at the moment, Id play hargrave on him so he can zone off, or williams if the match comittee decides to go that way.

Williams did such a super job on Gumbleton a few weeks back which has me full of confidence in matching up on Roughy. Hargrave will give away 5 free kicks if he has to play on Roughead close to goal.

Regardless of form Roughead is a dangerous player and will demand respect.


Hodge - dont favour hard-tagging guys who traditionally can shake off tags. Its a waste. If bateman/rioli or some other creative outside mid has been shown to be taggable in the past, then use picken on that player.

So Id let Boyd go head to head with Hodge and let them each have 30+ possession games. Sure , Hodge is going to use it better, but thats preferable to: hodge is tagged, has a 30+ game anyway, and his direct opponent gets 12 possessions.

Yeah he did a great job shaking off Andrew Welsh last week... What was it?? 12 touches for the game, no influence on the contest... Good call.

stefoid
30-06-2010, 12:26 PM
Williams did such a super job on Gumbleton a few weeks back which has me full of confidence in matching up on Roughy. Hargrave will give away 5 free kicks if he has to play on Roughead close to goal.

Regardless of form Roughead is a dangerous player and will demand respect.



Yeah he did a great job shaking off Andrew Welsh last week... What was it?? 12 touches for the game, no influence on the contest... Good call.

Its very rare that hodge is held to a 12 posession game - I wouldnt use that as the basis for our plan for him.

Greystache
30-06-2010, 12:39 PM
Yeah he did a great job shaking off Andrew Welsh last week... What was it?? 12 touches for the game, no influence on the contest... Good call.

Or 4 weeks ago when Brett Kirk tagged him and he finished with 14 disposals. Why any team goes head to head with him rather than using a player to shut him out of the game just baffles me.

mjp
30-06-2010, 01:16 PM
Yeah he did a great job shaking off Andrew Welsh last week... What was it?? 12 touches for the game, no influence on the contest... Good call.

I don't disagree, but what was the final score in that game? Or the Sydney game when Kirk tagged him (as mentioned by GS)...interesting that one though as I seem to recall Hodge started back on Goodes that day. The Hawthorn best player list had Lewis, Franklin, Burgoyne and Rioli in on each of those occasions, Rioli, Lewis, Mitchell and Franklin also featured against Adelaide (r12) and Lewis was again in there in R14.

They are winning when Hodge is good and when he isn't...this game is going to be decided based on our ability to:
- Control the Hawthorn forwards.
- Hit targets inside 50 against their zoning defense.

Who we tag or otherwise is not going to be the difference maker - I have no doubt at least one and probably two out of Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Sewell and Burgoyne will have big games. We need to make sure that the likes of Ellis/Young/Osborne etc are not able to have effective games and impact the scoreboard in order to win.

This is actually one game where I think it the ability of our mid tier players of Gia, Gilbee, Shaggy, Hahn, Eagle to win their match-ups that will determine the result - there is a lot of quality in both mid-fields and I think each side will get their share of possession...

Ozza
30-06-2010, 01:46 PM
Williams did such a super job on Gumbleton a few weeks back which has me full of confidence in matching up on Roughy. Hargrave will give away 5 free kicks if he has to play on Roughead close to goal.

Regardless of form Roughead is a dangerous player and will demand respect.


Yeah he did a great job shaking off Andrew Welsh last week... What was it?? 12 touches for the game, no influence on the contest... Good call.

Williams on Gumby - is that sarcastic? Just had to check because every contest they actually had - Williams got beaten.

I agree roughy is still dangerous - lake to Buddy, Morris to Roughead - has worked brilliantly the last 2 times - no sense in changing it.

Hodge was hampered by an injury (ankle from memory) during the Essendon game - and wasn't really on the ball at all. Thats why he only had 12. If you saw the footage of him - he could barely get off the mark.

LostDoggy
30-06-2010, 04:43 PM
Here's what i'm hoping/think will happen with some of the key match-ups.

Morris to Franklin - Franklin has finally started to get on his bike. Which is a worry for the rest of the competition. Morris has the pace and endurance to match him in this area. Franklin's weak point in his game is his contested marking, which is Lakes strong point. The Hawks will not allow this match-up to happen deep in the forward 50. Franklin will be starting on the wing, running into the forward 50. I dont think we can allow lake to zone off on him and allow cheap kick around the wing. This will only get his confidence up and we have seen how devastating his runs are.

Lake to Roughy - Lake should towell up Roughead. He's only real asset is his strength, which lake has him covered in. Lake should be able to really hurt the hawks on the rebound also if this match-up takes place.

Muston to Gilbee - Muston did a great defensive job on Fletcher last round. He continuely lead into dead pockets and kept Fletcher right away from the play. The Hawks were smart and used him going forward on occasions, so Fletcher had to stick with him. I expect Clako to use Muston on Gilbee.

Harbrow to Osborne/whoever is down there - Due to Muston playing close attention to Gilbee, i dont want to see Harbrow being used on Rioli, we need Harbrows run and carry out of defence. If Gilbee is getting taken out of the game we need Harbrow to have 30+ touches. Harbrow is a fantastic player but just does not have the football brain to combat Roili type players.

Murphy to Rioli - Although Murph could no doubt provide a much needed defensive play-maker if Gilbee is copping attention, i really would like to set him the task of taking Rioli. Rioli is possibly the smartest player in the game. Murphy is not too far behind IMO, he also has the pace and agility to go with Rioli. This will also make Rioli very accountable coming the other way seeing as Murphy's skills and sublime coming out of defence.

I guess that leaves Picken to take Hodge, But if Rioli is playing more on the ball then Picken should go to him.

Ghost Dog
30-06-2010, 05:36 PM
It's an interesting one, I think probably them. They are more an in an under type of team, and although that's an area we've improved greatly in recent seasons, we still play our best football when we take the game on with run and carry and quick ball movement which is hampered by the wet more. Also Franklin isn't so much an overhead marking forward so I don't think he'll be as affected as your traditional key forward (such as Hall) might be.


We are not great in the wet. Only ssome Gryffin magic saved us from Smell-bourne in our last wet game.

LostDoggy
30-06-2010, 07:01 PM
The Osbourne match up is one we have to get right he is important to their structure and was really dangerous last week.

Sockeye Salmon
30-06-2010, 07:52 PM
Williams on Gumby - is that sarcastic? Just had to check because every contest they actually had - Williams got beaten.



Gumby kicked 3 goals but only had 4 touches.

Mantis
30-06-2010, 09:21 PM
Williams on Gumby - is that sarcastic? Just had to check because every contest they actually had - Williams got beaten.



Yes I was.

Close to goal Tom is still a worry against a player who can leap and mark and I doubt he would be able to handle Roughy regardless of the form (or lack there of) he is in.

Mofra
01-07-2010, 09:23 AM
Jaytee, where would you put Wood?

Despite his inexperience, he will get an Osborne type for mine which means he has to back himself to run. I'd expect one of Harbrow or Gilbee to play further up the ground to give us some run through the middle which should give us an edge there; I think our midfields are fairly even otherwise.

Mantis
01-07-2010, 10:48 AM
Jaytee, where would you put Wood?

Despite his inexperience, he will get an Osborne type for mine which means he has to back himself to run. I'd expect one of Harbrow or Gilbee to play further up the ground to give us some run through the middle which should give us an edge there; I think our midfields are fairly even otherwise.

Where do you see Hargrave in all this?

comrade
01-07-2010, 12:09 PM
Some great analysis so far; there are plenty of critical match ups that will determine the result which have been articulated well in this thread.

I think this will be a similar contest to our round 2 game. There will be times during the game where we just have to absorb the pressure from Hawthorn and make sure guys like Buddy, Roughy and Cyril don't break it open in a 15 minute period.

I think Murphy off half back will be our trump card; Clarkson will put a lot of effort to curtail Gilbee and Harbrow, so hopefully that allows Murph to direct traffic from half back and pick apart the zone. His smarts will be critical in setting up our forward thrusts and I'd be giving him the ball when ever possible.

If we can put enough pressure on their back line, it will crack, as we saw in the last quarter earlier in the year. Grant is another critical player; they don't have any defensive player quick or agile enough to go with him for 4 quarters. If Barry is getting swarmed, we should look to play him higher and give Grant the forward 50 - let him burn off his opponent.

Murph to have 25 touches and Grant to kick 4.

Greystache
01-07-2010, 12:22 PM
Murph to have 25 touches and Grant to kick 4.

And perhaps finally get a rising star nomination. :rolleyes:

comrade
01-07-2010, 12:25 PM
And perhaps finally get a rising star nomination. :rolleyes:

Yes, it shouldn't be far away. Hawthorn's back line should be ripe for the taking.

Greystache
02-07-2010, 08:53 PM
No one's been seen in the vacinity of Hodge in the first half, Hodge has 16 and most of their clearances. Baffling match up to say the least.