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Mantis
09-09-2010, 09:53 PM
The_Bulldogs_ Bite's bit:

Introduction

We’re expected to crash out in straight sets after an incredibly disappointing month of football, capped off by a sour belting in last week’s QF v Collingwood.

Brad Johnson announced his retirement earlier in the week after a wonderful 362 game career, after admitting his body and mind can’t go on any longer. He’s had a difficult year, much like the club itself, but expect the Dogs to have extra motivation going into this game.

Sydney are deserved favourites heading into this Semi Final clash, coming off five consecutive victories, including a big win against Carlton in their EF last week. Their confidence is sky high; they’ve got a healthy list to choose from and will draw the key traits that came out of their Round 21 win against us.

This game is certainly known as the Johnson/Kirk factor – both great captains of their club, but one of them will retire on Saturday Night after a decorated career.

Last Time They Met

Round 21, 2010 (SCG)
Sydney – 18.13 (121)
Western Bulldogs – 12.7 (79)

Another night we’d prefer to forget, after losing to Geelong by 101 points the week before. The Dogs started well but Sydney pegged us back and then really got on top in the second quarter. Injuries to Cooney and Morris made it a very, very bitter night for the Tricolour as Trent Dennis-Lane booted 4 majors. Kieran Jack collected 25 disposals, 9 clearances, 5 inside 50’s and kicked 2 goals.

The Bulldogs had 9 players with less than 10 possessions and only one who managed above 20. (Boyd)

Despite the fact that the form line hasn’t changed since this night, expect it to be a lot closer. Sydney struggle on the MCG and one would think we won’t be throwing in the towel as easily as we have.

Mofra's bit:


The Mens’ Department vs Their Forwardline

Possible match-ups:

(NB: I have assumed Callan will miss and reserve the right to change selection on the basis of teamsheets being released, or posters coming up with better suggestions)

Lake vs Bradshaw – with Roos flagging Bradshaw could be back, I’d expect Lake to start with him in the absence of Morris. Lake has some size differential advantage, although Bradshaw is a very smart footballer who may play a sacrificial role for the team and try and drag Lake away from the action. Swans will be keen to exploit the absence of Morris. Lake may be switched onto Goodes if he starts to present a problem.

Williams vs Goodes – I almost typed Shaggy in, then Murphy, I really did. Shaggy’s rebound work has been down slightly over his usual standard, and Murphy was in good form last week and is smart enough to be able to go with Goodes, but on size alone I think Williams will get the job. Although I worry that Goodes will be too smart for Williams we really don't have many other options. Goodes normally demands a pure stopper so by trying Williams we may just have to hope he can do teh job.

Shaggy vs Dennis-Lane – Shaggy will need to watch TDL like a hawk, and run hard on the turnovers as TDL (despite the big tackle) only managed two for the game. He kicked 4 last week, and 4 against us in round 21 so this is a big match-up for us. If Tim Callan plays I would give him a pure stopping role on him. I’m not sure TDL Likes physical pressure so basically the biggest prick in the team should go to him. Shaggy snuck into the best in round 21 so has form against them.


McGlynn/Moore vs Gilbee/Murphy – McGlynn is smart and I expect him to return, but I think we can win this battle. Gilbee will need to get his skates on and try and hurt the Swans on the turnoverif he plays here, although I think Eade will try and push Gilbee up the ground to play a defensive wing role. Murphy was good last week.

O’Keefe/Hannebury vs Wood – Wood has the athleticism to go with both and Wood looked good against Stevie J a few weeks back so the bigger O’Keefe will be seen as an opportunity by Wood. Murphy as a back-up on O’Keefe is he gets going.

TBB' bit:

Midfield Battle

Griffen v Jack: This one seems a given considering Cooney got the attention last time and is now sitting on the sidelines. Griffen is clearly our best midfielder, as evidenced last week on yet another big stage for the #16. Jack has been a crucial player for the Swans this season, showcasing an ability to shut down opponents and then hurt them going the other way. He’s mastered the ‘one step, kick’ skill and is deadly around stoppages in the F50 with this trait. Griffen will have him covered for pace though, so out in the open spaces of the MCG, Jack may struggle. The key for Ryan is to get on his bike and run Jack around because although he’s a great inside player, I’m not sure Jack has the ability to shut down explosive mids who can play the outside game – especially on a wide ground.

Boyd / Cross v Kirk / Bolton: All four of these guys are very experienced footballers and whilst none of them are genuine match winners, the play often starts in their hands. Boyd and Cross have been dreadful lately. Their decision making and disposal has cost us dearly and unless they turn that around, we’ll be in trouble. Kirk and Bolton aren’t quick much like our duo, but they’re similar in that they dig in deep to feed the ball out. It’s probably fair to say Kirk and Bolton play within their limitations even at the late stage of their careers. Contested ball will be a real key here, but so too will blocking/pressuring the opposition’s players. We desperately need Boyd/Cross to play tighter.

Eagleton v McVeigh: Not too sure this one will happen but from a Swans point of view, McVeigh has the ability to hurt Eagleton but keep him in check at the same time. McVeigh likes to run forward and set up the play, he doesn’t mind kicking a goal himself and at times is a real barometer of their side if he’s running hard. Eagle is similar; he has to run hard to space, play on quickly and spot up targets with his piercing left boot. Sadly for us – Eagleton has struggled to do this for quite a while. On the upside, this is usually the game he rips apart. Like the rest of our midfield, he’s got to be accountable.


The midfield needs to be much more organised than it has been for the last month. No finger pointing – if you see a man free, go and pick him up. We just can’t allow cheap possession off a pack like Swan got last week. It’s pivotal we play desperate footy; meaning, we make Sydney’s mids earn their possessions. If it means that we play man on man – great. I really don’t want to see us employ zones whereby we allow them to create the overlap with Shaw, Malceski and Mattner running from the back.

One of Cross or Boyd must stand on the defensive side of every pack and the other must be prepared to block for Griffen. He’s the man that can break this game open, but only if we give him the opportunity to do so. This also requires Minson to do some bullocking work, of which he’s done little of this year. The structure has to be about players playing to their strengths. Hudson, Boyd, Cross, Picken, Ward and Minson going in hard and low to shovel the ball out to our runners in Griffen, Eagleton, Harbrow and Gilbee.

Sticking to these structures will go a long way to winning the game. Boyd trying to play like Ablett, Cross delivering the ball inside 50 and Minson/Ward trying to kick with their left foot won’t work. We need hardness, discipline, concentration and composure to succeed.

Mantis
09-09-2010, 09:54 PM
Mofra's bit:

Bazza’s Boys vs The Rebounders



Bazza vs Grundy – Bazza just keeps presenting, which is what we need from the big fella. Kicked 2 goals last time on a congested SCG with our midfield stocks depleted (losing Cooney in the first two minutes). With more space to lead into I expect he’ll have a happier night.

Richards vs Hahn – Going to require a big from Mitch here, hopefully he has got a good one left in the bank. We really need him to compete hard and play with a hardness we haven't seen for a while.

Shaw vs Hooper/Johnson – Shaw is their real small defender so knowing little of Hooper the Swans would probably not want their other 188cm plus guys going to a guy with the turning circle smaller than Aker’s circle of friends. This is a big test for Hooper, as Shaw had 29 touches in round 8 against us but I am convinced he can help us. If Hooper doesn’t play, I expect Shaw to go to Johnson.

Kennelly vs Grant – Grant had a stinker last week, and Kennelly gets the nod because he is slightly taller than M&Ms, and a battle of Britain sounds more interesting with the English Merlin taking on the foe of Southern Ireland. County Kerry (bastards) aren’t in the all Ireland GAA final this year, which give County Cork (yay, the good guys) a chance of clinching the title against Down, who incidentally have Marty Clarke playing for them. 19 September, bookmark it kids.

Mattner/Malceski vs Gia/Resting mid – Malceski has been in very good form, with the only exception against the Bulldogs in round 21. I expect Gia may be pushed to the middle if need be to try and give us some cleaner disposal in close. We will rotate players through position 6 as we have for much of the season – Harbrow will push forward at times, we may throw Murphy there or we may try Addison as a defensive forward to cut down their rebound.

This is an area we can exploit – our forwards were collectively poor last week however the Swans don’t play the MCG well and the bigger space means their defensive unit can have the odd hole in it. Will we be smart enough to take advantage of this? Who knows, but having a disposal efficiency result higher than Sam Newman’s brain-cell count will help no end.

TBB' bit:

Summary

The Dogs have to lift in every single area of the game but none more so than disposal efficiency. 61% isn’t going to win you a game of football, especially against quality sides. Secondly, we have to get numbers to the contest – we were regularly 2-against-1, 3-against-2, 4-against-2 in the QF. This is coupled with the fact that our decision making needs to be better, too. All these aspects tie in together.

No doubt emotion will be running high at the first bounce with the Johnson/Kirk factors, but it’ll be all about who can settle first. Again – that comes back to clear decision making and disposal efficiency. Another area we’ll need to get on top of them is contested ball. We’ve gone from being the #1 side in the competition in this area, to the last. That’s downright appalling – we have to beat them in this ratio, no questions asked.

I suspect there might be a bit of chop and changing. Goodes will play forward and midfield, Mumford will play ruck and forward. Without Morris, it means we’re clearly undersized so defenders (and mids, and forwards) have to be switched on. It might mean Hargrave has to take Goodes for a moment whilst Wood manages TDL. These are concentration areas that can decide close games – we’ve got to be switched on.

Lastly, let’s see some structure. All we did against Collingwood was kick the ball long to nobody. No running, no blocking, nothing. Watching Gilbee and co kick the ball in from defense with the same method and technique every single time was painful. Let’s mix it up – switch the play, run hard to create space over the back, take risks – because we aren’t going to win playing conservative.

It’d do or die time, doggies.

Let’s hope this isn’t the last time we see Johnson running out onto the MCG.

Prediction: Dogs by 14 points.

bornadog
09-09-2010, 11:17 PM
Excellent analysis of the match ups and great preview of what is to come.

Last time we played the Swans the first quarter ended up being a free flowing goal fest. For the rest of the game, the Swnas changed their style and went back to the old numbers to the ball, lock it in style and we got smashed in the contested posessions. Of course it didn't help losing Cooney early.

We need to keep the ball moving fast and rack up the posessions like we were doing earlier in the year and deny the Swans getting it.

We have a few different faces in this time compared to the last time we played them with Jones, Morris, Cooney and Moles out and Hooper, Minson, Addison and Wood in.

Sydney have won their last 5 games but no wins were in Mlebourne and in fact lost to Melbourne at the MCG in round 17. They also lost to Hawthorn and Richmond at the MCG so the bigger ground probably doesn't suit them.

LostDoggy
10-09-2010, 09:04 AM
Look for Kennedy to play an important role in their midfield. He was very good last week on Judd and it wold not surprise to see him back there this week

The Bulldogs Bite
10-09-2010, 01:49 PM
Look for Kennedy to play an important role in their midfield. He was very good last week on Judd and it wold not surprise to see him back there this week

Good point.

Jack kept Judd under control for the first half, but he really got Carlton back into the game in the third. Arguably should have won the game for the Blues, he missed two sodas. Kennedy was then shifted onto him in the last quarter and did very well.

I still don't think Jack or Kennedy have the pace to go with Griff, we just need to create paths for him to run into.

Mantis
10-09-2010, 02:02 PM
Well done on the write-up guys, a good read.

Well it's Groundhog Day. Over the past 2 years we have found ourselves in this very position and found ways to escape into the PF. Last year we were in better form so it was a given, but this year we have much against us in our quest to take our season further.

Team selection has thrown up some strange ones, but hopefully the MC have the mix right and we can play with the energy that has been missing over the last month, even for much of the year.

The big ground will help if we can win the contested ball and then spread, we have smacked Sydney on the larger Manuka over at least the past few years and did the same in this very match a few years back. Our ability to run with ball and hit up leading targets in these games has been crucial and needs to return.

We need a massive lift all over the ground; we need run, creativity and clean disposal from defence, a more accountable, intense and confident midfield and a forwardline that is willing to work for each other and work even harder to create turnovers.

A huge test of character for our team.. Hopefully we have the inner strength to counter a team in good touch.

Ozza
10-09-2010, 02:09 PM
Well done on the write-up guys, a good read.

Well it's Groundhog Day. Over the past 2 years we have found ourselves in this very position and found ways to escape into the PF. Last year we were in better form so it was a given, but this year we have much against us in our quest to take our season further.

Team selection has thrown up some strange ones, but hopefully the MC have the mix right and we can play with the energy that has been missing over the last month, even for much of the year.

The big ground will help if we can win the contested ball and then spread, we have smacked Sydney on the larger Manuka over at least the past few years and did the same in this very match a few years back. Our ability to run with ball and hit up leading targets in these games has been crucial and needs to return.

We need a massive lift all over the ground; we need run, creativity and clean disposal from defence, a more accountable, intense and confident midfield and a forwardline that is willing to work for each other and work even harder to create turnovers.

A huge test of character for our team.. Hopefully we have the inner strength to counter a team in good touch.

Bob Murphy becomes super important with this point. We need to get the ball into Bob's hands so he can slice and dice his way through the half back/midfield lines. Wish we had 2 Bob Murphy's - one to be presenting at Half forward would be very handy.

Mantis
10-09-2010, 02:15 PM
Bob Murphy becomes super important with this point. We need to get the ball into Bob's hands so he can slice and dice his way through the half back/midfield lines. Wish we had 2 Bob Murphy's - one to be presenting at Half forward would be very handy.

As do Harbow, Gilbee, Hargrave & Wood.

Thru the middle of the season we had all of these guys running from behind, last week we really had just Murf. We need to play with some 'dare' and take the game on rather than just bomb it out and hope for the best.

Sedat
10-09-2010, 02:32 PM
Fantastic write up guys, makes reading the newspapers completely irrelevent from a match preview perspective.

Sydney are a good opponent for us this week because they are not blessed with amazing leg speed, and while they are an honest, fiercely competitive unit, they lack the devastating weapons that the likes of Collingwood and Geelong possess. On the rebound in finals we've proven to be very adept, so I suspect we will come out with the right collective mindset, especially in at the contested ball and stoppages. The wider expanses of the MCG have certainly been a problem for Sydney to impose their will on the contest and bottle it in.

The Goodes and Hannebery match-ups will be critical in nullifying their most offensively oriented players. Wood's inclusion could not be better timed as he provides us with an inbetweener with great athleticsm and pace - Griffen and Harbrow cannot be solely relied on to provide the run and carry for us.

I expect Boyd and Cross to be much more effective this week because they will be matched up on defensive-minded mids that aren't blessed with great pace. They should be smarting after being torched so decisively by their direct opponents last week and will be desperate to atone. Strong performances from both should result in us winning the clearance battle and the likes of Griffen being fed sufficient opportunities to run and distribute with precision further upfield.

Scraggers
10-09-2010, 02:33 PM
Again, a fantastic preview guys ... Thank you to all involved

Ghost Dog
10-09-2010, 02:46 PM
Bob Murphy becomes super important with this point. We need to get the ball into Bob's hands so he can slice and dice his way through the half back/midfield lines. Wish we had 2 Bob Murphy's - one to be presenting at Half forward would be very handy.

Great write up guys. Thanks

Ozza, I agree with the above but then again, Bob got plenty of the ball last week but was not well supported. Need others to make the most of Bob's great delivery skills.

Can't wait to see Hoops on the big stage. Less of a Bulldog than a fox terrier. :)
Collingwood and others have used some of these small players well. Should be interesting.