Expectations for 2011

[boydogs]

After 3 consecutive prelim final defeats, can we make it that far again next season, and possibly even go further?

We have had a few retirements, but didn't get much from those in 2010 anyway. Hudson & Hall were the best over 30's and are staying on. Some speedy mature age recruits could bring back our damaging run circa '06 to match our hardness we have developed since.

The key forward is there, the forward pressure has been brought in, the key player injuries will be healed. Are we a chance to be premiers in 2011?

[soupman]

I see no reason for us to go backwards, and would expect us to be top four again.

Next year our losses, both potential and actual are as follows:

Actual:
-No Johnson
-No Akermanis
-No Eagleton
-No Harbrow

Potential:
-Hahn may depart
-Hall and/or Hudson may decline, possibly in terms of form or just injury
-The 1999 group of Giansiracusa, Gilbee, Murphy and Hargrave may begin to decline (Gilbee already has).

However, the following are actual or potential positives:
Actual:
-We have recruited Sherman, an AFL quality player with something we need, pace.

Potential:
-Our young regulars (Williams, Higgins, Ward, Griffen, Grant, Picken (and to a lesser extent Addison)) should only get better as none should have reached their peak as of yet.
-We will have youngsters who have had a taste looking to become regulars ie. Jones, Roughead, Wood, Hooper, Moles
-Surely we'll have better luck with regard to injuries for Murphy, Higgins, Reid, Ward, Cooney, Roughead, Minson, Wood, Tiller, Morris
-We should be carrying less players. 2010 has been the year where players like Johnson, Akermanis and Higgins have had to be carried for sizeable chunks of the year.
-We have numerous players who whilst not in calculations in previous years may come on like Grant did this year and affirm themselves as regular players Players like Reid, Veszpremi, Djerrkura, Hooper, any mature age recruits, maybe even Howard
-Surely the likes of Hill and Hargrave can't have another year like 2010.

So based on that I can't see any reason for us getting worse, and when I look at St.Kilda (very few quality young players), Geelong (lost their best player and are ageing) I think we could realistically aim for top 2, provided we are injury free.

[LostDoggy]

Top 2, and a Grand Final Berth.

Also, I reckon Higgins and Ward to have breakthrough seasons, and Griff to take his career to another level.
Also agree though that the 1999 club may start to decline, bar Giansiracusa and Murphy.

[Dazza]

I expect a top 4 finish.

Also expect a few of the younger guys get a decent run in the seniors.

[mjp]

Top 2, and a Grand Final Berth.

Also, I reckon Higgins and Ward to have breakthrough seasons, and Griff to take his career to another level.
Also agree though that the 1999 club may start to decline, bar Giansiracusa and Murphy.

WOW.

1/.Gia and Murph are already in decline. So is Gilbee, so (I suspect) is Hargrave.
2/.Weren't Higgins and Ward supposed to have break-through years THIS year? Was injury the only problem here?
3/.If Grant suffers any of the 'usual' 2nd year blues (yes, I know it has been three years but you cant count the first one!) then our forward line will go backwards. If that is possible.
4/.We have ZERO cover for Lake and Williams - and Williams has a history of being fragile/Lake has his degenerative hip thing that seemed to slow him as the year went along.
5/.The 'where will the midfield leg-speed' question has still not been answered.
6/.We still don't have a proven small forward.
7/.Cut it whichever way you like, Harbrow is/was a better player than Sherman.
etc etc etc.

We NEED Howard and two of the three trade-ees to come through for us in a big way to make the top two. We NEED Hudson to keep on rolling. We need Cooney and Griffen to stay injury free...

I am not sure about top 2...I am not sure you aren't right, but with so many elements changing within the team I just have no idea what we have got right now.

Then again, last year I thought we would sink to 6th or 7th and we held it together, so maybe I am just reading too much into it...with so much change in the squad though I really have no idea what will happen. My view at the moment is we have the talent, but it will take 8-12 weeks before we start to gel as a team. That we might end up being a fast finishing side that either just misses the 8 or just makes it and is the traditional 'side no-one wants to play' in September. An away final against Sydney or Adelaide who will be thereabouts as well would be a bad result and potential early exit.

[Hot_Doggies]

WOW.

We NEED Howard and two of the three trade-ees to come through for us in a big way to make the top two. .


Question marks over his pace. Seems to waddle around a fair bit. Lovely kick when he gets it though.

[mjp]

Question marks over his pace. Seems to waddle around a fair bit. Lovely kick when he gets it though.

Yep. I know.

He had better figure it out quickly though because we need our first round picks in and playing NOW. Don't worry, we need Cordy as well but I have no faith whatsoever that he will be a factor next year.

[GVGjr]

Yep. I know.

He had better figure it out quickly though because we need our first round picks in and playing NOW.

We rarely draft players in the first round with an expectation that they will make much of a return in the first 2 seasons with obviously Cooney and Griffen as a couple of exceptions.

With that in mind I not sure what our expectations should be of Howard in 2011. Perhaps 2 or 3 games for the Dogs is a realistic chance but I doubt he is capable much more than that.

[mjp]

We rarely draft players in the first round with an expectation that they will make much of a return in the first 2 seasons with obviously Cooney and Griffen as a couple of exceptions.

With that in mind I not sure what our expectations should be of Howard in 2011. Perhaps 2 or 3 games for the Dogs is a realistic chance but I doubt he is capable much more than that.

Needs to be 12-15 for mine.

He had a late start and still debuted with Willi.

His kicking skills are a unique characteristic. Surely we can find 60 minutes a game for him in 2011?

[GVGjr]

Needs to be 12-15 for mine.

He had a late start and still debuted with Willi.

His kicking skills are a unique characteristic. Surely we can find 60 minutes a game for him in 2011?

If he had an almost full season in the Williamstown seniors then I would still think that sort of number is beyond him and I also wonder if the reduced bench will dry up some opportunities for the younger guys.

I'd like him to used on a wing at Williamstown and get used to kicking to leading forwards rather than open midfielders.

[Mantis]

WOW.

1/.Gia and Murph are already in decline. So is Gilbee, so (I suspect) is Hargrave.
2/.Weren't Higgins and Ward supposed to have break-through years THIS year? Was injury the only problem here?
3/.If Grant suffers any of the 'usual' 2nd year blues (yes, I know it has been three years but you cant count the first one!) then our forward line will go backwards. If that is possible.
4/.We have ZERO cover for Lake and Williams - and Williams has a history of being fragile/Lake has his degenerative hip thing that seemed to slow him as the year went along.
5/.The 'where will the midfield leg-speed' question has still not been answered.
6/.We still don't have a proven small forward.
7/.Cut it whichever way you like, Harbrow is/was a better player than Sherman.
etc etc etc.

We NEED Howard and two of the three trade-ees to come through for us in a big way to make the top two. We NEED Hudson to keep on rolling. We need Cooney and Griffen to stay injury free...

I am not sure about top 2...I am not sure you aren't right, but with so many elements changing within the team I just have no idea what we have got right now.

Then again, last year I thought we would sink to 6th or 7th and we held it together, so maybe I am just reading too much into it...with so much change in the squad though I really have no idea what will happen. My view at the moment is we have the talent, but it will take 8-12 weeks before we start to gel as a team. That we might end up being a fast finishing side that either just misses the 8 or just makes it and is the traditional 'side no-one wants to play' in September. An away final against Sydney or Adelaide who will be thereabouts as well would be a bad result and potential early exit.

Shit... I thought I was pessimistic.

We beat the 9th best team this year by 12 goals in each of our 2 games. Of course if injuries strike it could become a possibility, but to think that we will be battling out for a top 8 spot is crazy talk..... And gel as a team, really?? No doubt our forward-line at times will have some new faces, but our 3 best forwards of 2010 will still be playing roles (Hall, Grant, Gia), we also have Hill & Higgins who know our style of play pretty well and will play games. Jones who is being groomed as our CHF also got some valuable game time at the end of this season which will no doubt help him going forward... On top of that we will have pretty much no new additions to our defence & midfield groups who all know each others games pretty well and would be well inside the best 5 individual groups in the competition.

If we stay fit I can't see us dropping back too far or even at all, especially with the help of a pretty friendly draw.

[LostDoggy]

Yep. I know.

He had better figure it out quickly though because we need our first round picks in and playing NOW. Don't worry, we need Cordy as well but I have no faith whatsoever that he will be a factor next year.

How do you figure out pace?

[bornadog]

Expectations - Premiership of course.

[Mofra]

My take;

Forwardline:
Aker was terrible, Hahn & Johnno slowed, and Minson still can't play as a tall forward.
Roughy was an improvement (but his kicking for goal was terrible), Grant a revelation and Jones snagged a few games after spending most of 2009 playing school footy.

We have to expect Hall's output will drop, and Gia may run through the middle a bit more with the change in interchage rule so our two best performed forwards will feasibly drop their goal tally.
Hill needs to play in 2011 - he had our second best goals per game average and was 6th on our tackle list. I don't care if he looks lazy, his output was well above some of his more lauded teammates. If Jones can become a more regular feature, and Roughy completes the overtaking of Minsons's spot, and one of Veszpremi/Hooper/Djerkurra becomes a regular FP we can really improve in 2011. Some big "Ifs" though.


Midfield:
Griffen became the player we hoped he would and was out best finals player. Boyd still gets leather poisening but isn't great by foot. Cross improved a little by foot, coming off a very low base. Moles can kick as long as nobody is near him - needs to improve his disposal under pressure. Cooney should perhaps play more of an outside role?
Higgins is an excellent finisher but is brittle. Ward was our best in the prelim and could be the biggest chance for midfield improvement. Sherman gives us run but at the expense of disposal. DFA improved late as well and could be our bolter.

We will get killed if we move the ball slowly as we simply don't have the footskills to spot up targets in heavy traffic (zones/smarms or whatever you want to call them). We will be near the top in terms of winning contested football so perhaps we will be the side more willing to kick to a contest? I dare say we will compensate for a lack of genuine pace with fast ball movement, which is how Geelong managed to look like they were a quick side when they really weren't.

Defence:
Oh shit. We were very good in 2010, but the injury gods treated us well during the H&A season. Shaggy & Gilbee were poor, and Shaggy's ankles should be a concern. Lake's hip is another, but Williams managed near enough a full season and took great steps in 2010. Harbrow's loss will hurt, but his disposal was poor and he was moved up the ground later in 2010 to compensate for our lack of run in the midfield. If we can keep Morris away from the gorillas we stand a chance.

Wood needs to stand up, Murphy needs to be creative and we need to hope that if both Gilbee/Shaggy continue to decline then as MJP has mentioned we need Howard. Defence is an area we could lose ground in next year. When we start sending Jones back to plug gaps we know we are in trouble.

[LostDoggy]

My take;


Defence:
Oh shit. We were very good in 2010, but the injury gods treated us well during the H&A season. Shaggy & Gilbee were poor, and Shaggy's ankles should be a concern. Lake's hip is another, but Williams managed near enough a full season and took great steps in 2010. Harbrow's loss will hurt, but his disposal was poor and he was moved up the ground later in 2010 to compensate for our lack of run in the midfield. If we can keep Morris away from the gorillas we stand a chance.

Wood needs to stand up, Murphy needs to be creative and we need to hope that if both Gilbee/Shaggy continue to decline then as MJP has mentioned we need Howard. Defence is an area we could lose ground in next year. When we start sending Jones back to plug gaps we know we are in trouble.

Hopefully Jones playing regular CHF will send Murphy back more often to alleviate potential backmen issues, Wood should become a 22 round fixture in our backline as well. A backup to Lake and WIlliams is definately needed, the guys in line seem a long wayback.

Overall, looking at the fixture, top 4 should be our least expectation with top 2 a definite possibility. Then we shall get bundled from the prelim by Collingwood. aaahhhhhhhh

Even if we make the GF, something seriously needs to happen to peg the filth back to the rest of the field.

[ledge]

Reading all this doesnt sound like any of you think Wallis or Liberatore will get a look in.
Arent they both midfielders ?
Wallis I imagine playing on a wing, Liberatore a bit harder to gauge as his game relies more on body stuff and maybe isnt up to the hardness yet, but they have been at the club preparing earlier than most because we knew we had them.

[LostDoggy]

Reading all this doesnt sound like any of you think Wallis or Liberatore will get a look in.
Arent they both midfielders ?
Wallis I imagine playing on a wing, Liberatore a bit harder to gauge as his game relies more on body stuff and maybe isnt up to the hardness yet, but they have been at the club preparing earlier than most because we knew we had them.

Will they be our next Coon/Griff combo - play straight away? Our record with most first rounders in recent memory is play a few years in the 2nds/injury prone/delist (Mr Walsh)

[LostDoggy]

Gilbee simply needs to drop some weight. He has bulked up too far as Aker did in his first year and Buckley did at one stage of his career.

This comes at the expense of speed and flexibility.

People are forgetting that Hargrave had a severe injury to contend with and free of this, I see no reason he would not return to his usual standard. Neither player is close to their used-by date.

[Desipura]

Gilbee simply needs to drop some weight. He has bulked up too far as Aker did in his first year and Buckley did at one stage of his career.

This comes at the expense of speed and flexibility.

Agree, looked a little too heavy for mine this year taking away some of his run.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Gilbee simply needs to drop some weight. He has bulked up too far as Aker did in his first year and Buckley did at one stage of his career.

This comes at the expense of speed and flexibility.

People are forgetting that Hargrave had a severe injury to contend with and free of this, I see no reason he would not return to his usual standard. Neither player is close to their used-by date.

Hargrave has been injured for almost 3 years.

We may never see him at full fitness agin.

[mjp]

Gilbee simply needs to drop some weight. He has bulked up too far as Aker did in his first year and Buckley did at one stage of his career.

This comes at the expense of speed and flexibility.

People are forgetting that Hargrave had a severe injury to contend with and free of this, I see no reason he would not return to his usual standard. Neither player is close to their used-by date.

I am not forgetting anything.

Both of these players have reached the point where - to be brutal - we have already seen their best footy. We will see occasional games where they reach the heights of 2008 (Gilbee) and 2009 (Hargrave) but I doubt very much either will put together a season to rival those ones just mentioned ever again.

It is the circle of life!

[LostDoggy]

I am not forgetting anything.

Both of these players have reached the point where - to be brutal - we have already seen their best footy. We will see occasional games where they reach the heights of 2008 (Gilbee) and 2009 (Hargrave) but I doubt very much either will put together a season to rival those ones just mentioned ever again.

It is the circle of life!

It is the circle of life with Hahn as it was with eagle. Neither Gilbee nor Hahn are in their category

[Desipura]

I am not forgetting anything.

Both of these players have reached the point where - to be brutal - we have already seen their best footy. We will see occasional games where they reach the heights of 2008 (Gilbee) and 2009 (Hargrave) but I doubt very much either will put together a season to rival those ones just mentioned ever again.

It is the circle of life!
I believe Neil Craig has/had a similar philosophy to you. At 28-29yo, he thought Hudsons best was behind him hence why he would not offer him more than a one year contract.

Sure Huddo started playing AFL at 25yo, we thought he still had some good years ahead of him, even Craig would admit Huddo has surpassed his expectations at the Dogs.

Whether Gilbee can recapture his 2008 form, who knows? I would still rather have the ball in his hands 15 times than most of his teammates.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Whether Gilbee can recapture his 2008 form, who knows? I would still rather have the ball in his hands 15 times than most of his teammates.

I'm not nearly as confident when he has the ball in his hands anymore. His game has gone down significantly in the last 12-18 months but it's hard to pinpoint why. Is it a combination of his father's passing/age - or is it a lack of confidence? Perhaps we've been trying to play him up the ground a little too much?