2011 AFL Ladder Predictor

[The Bulldogs Bite]

1. Collingwood: It'd take a brave man to pick against them based on what we've seen. Still a young list with room for improvement. Gain Tarrant and Krakouer. The question is whether or not sides can catch them.
2. Western Bulldogs: I see us improving a fair bit. Our depth looks better, although we'll struggle if we suffer injuries to key backs. Need a relatively injury free year, but we've got a heap of improvement from the majority of our list.
3. Fremantle: Not convinced they'll definitely make the top four, but they are certainly a young and quality side on the rise. Depends how they cope with Tarrant leaving. Key backs aren't great.
4. St. Kilda: Predicting a slide. Outside of their top 5 or so players, they aren't impressive. Milne and Hayes a year older, but the Goddard/Riewoldt/Dal Santo types will still cement them in the top quarter IMO.
5. Hawthorn: Due for an injury free season. Schoenmakers (sp?) to hold down a role as a KPD. Their best is very good - with a few tinkers and some luck, perhaps they'll be more consistent. Still young enough.
6. Geelong: Hard to see them slip any further. Still will win their fair share of games, but should slide with the older brigade and loss of Ablett.
7. Adelaide: Lot of their good players had average seasons including Tippett, Porp and McKay. Injury free + development of Sloane etc. and they should be back. Potential to finish 4-10th, hard side to place.
8. Melbourne: Possibly a year early as they need Watts, Jurrah, Scully, Trengove etc. to stand up. However, they did OK in '10 and should still improve. Need to start performing more consistently.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Carlton: Another side that is a little hard to place. Could finish as high as 5th, although it seems a stretch. Too reliant on a few players (Judd, Waite, Betts). Some quality young players need to have big years (Henderson, Yarran) ditto McLean.
10. North Melbourne: Still think they are lacking the ability to beat the sides named above them on a consistent basis. Petrie will be a huge inclusion and they have scope for improvement but I haven't seen enough to judge them higher. Harvey a year older doesn't help.
11. Sydney: Few of their better players are getting on so they become a little more reliant on first to third year players. Still a well drilled side and they seem to find a way of making the final 8 each year.
12. Richmond: Got some of their passion back under Hardwick, he did a wonderful job after a rocky start. Some good young kids coming through, I see them improving again.
13. Essendon: Hird may save them from holding up the ladder, but you can only do so much with a horrible list. Great coaching panel though. They'll still win a few games here and there due to pace, but eh, that's about it.
14. Port Adelaide: Difficult to see them finishing much higher, although I don't know their list inside out. Seem to be going nowhere the last few years, might need a few more before they rise up again.
15. Brisbane: A fit Brown/Fevola duo saves them from finishing bottom. Also will get back players like Adcock and Drummond, and whilst they may not be as good as they were prior to injury, they'll keep Brisbane off the bottom.
16. Gold Coast: No forward line and if/when injuries hit they'll be stuffed.
17. West Coast: Still the worst list in the AFL. Been saying for 2 years they can't hit the side of a barn. Fail to see how that will improve. Rubbish team.

[OLD SCRAGGer]

1. Collingwood: It'd take a brave man to pick against them based on what we've seen. Still a young list with room for improvement. Gain Tarrant and Krakouer. The question is whether or not sides can catch them.
2. Western Bulldogs: I see us improving a fair bit. Our depth looks better, although we'll struggle if we suffer injuries to key backs. Need a relatively injury free year, but we've got a heap of improvement from the majority of our list.
3. Fremantle: Not convinced they'll definitely make the top four, but they are certainly a young and quality side on the rise. Depends how they cope with Tarrant leaving. Key backs aren't great.
4. St. Kilda: Predicting a slide. Outside of their top 5 or so players, they aren't impressive. Milne and Hayes a year older, but the Goddard/Riewoldt/Dal Santo types will still cement them in the top quarter IMO.
5. Hawthorn: Due for an injury free season. Schoenmakers (sp?) to hold down a role as a KPD. Their best is very good - with a few tinkers and some luck, perhaps they'll be more consistent. Still young enough.
6. Geelong: Hard to see them slip any further. Still will win their fair share of games, but should slide with the older brigade and loss of Ablett.
7. Adelaide: Lot of their good players had average seasons including Tippett, Porp and McKay. Injury free + development of Sloane etc. and they should be back. Potential to finish 4-10th, hard side to place.
8. Melbourne: Possibly a year early as they need Watts, Jurrah, Scully, Trengove etc. to stand up. However, they did OK in '10 and should still improve. Need to start performing more consistently.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9. Carlton: Another side that is a little hard to place. Could finish as high as 5th, although it seems a stretch. Too reliant on a few players (Judd, Waite, Betts). Some quality young players need to have big years (Henderson, Yarran) ditto McLean.
10. North Melbourne: Still think they are lacking the ability to beat the sides named above them on a consistent basis. Petrie will be a huge inclusion and they have scope for improvement but I haven't seen enough to judge them higher. Harvey a year older doesn't help.
11. Sydney: Few of their better players are getting on so they become a little more reliant on first to third year players. Still a well drilled side and they seem to find a way of making the final 8 each year.
12. Richmond: Got some of their passion back under Hardwick, he did a wonderful job after a rocky start. Some good young kids coming through, I see them improving again.
13. Essendon: Hird may save them from holding up the ladder, but you can only do so much with a horrible list. Great coaching panel though. They'll still win a few games here and there due to pace, but eh, that's about it.
14. Port Adelaide: Difficult to see them finishing much higher, although I don't know their list inside out. Seem to be going nowhere the last few years, might need a few more before they rise up again.
15. Brisbane: A fit Brown/Fevola duo saves them from finishing bottom. Also will get back players like Adcock and Drummond, and whilst they may not be as good as they were prior to injury, they'll keep Brisbane off the bottom.
16. Gold Coast: No forward line and if/when injuries hit they'll be stuffed.
17. West Coast: Still the worst list in the AFL. Been saying for 2 years they can't hit the side of a barn. Fail to see how that will improve. Rubbish team.

LIKE the look of this :D

[LostDoggy]

Nice summary. Thoughts -- Freo, Hawthorn and Melbourne seem high, but don't know who else goes up if they come down. Port seem low.

Reading that, it's quite clear that it's not actually a very strong comp next year, with quite a few teams in transition and/or developing, with only us, Collingwood and the Saints as the three established teams that could stay the same or improve, and even the Saints may slide (Geelong already sliding). Hawthorn could be anything simply because of their handful of X-factor types, but structure is still a real problem there.

It is clear that we're in a big, big, big window of opportunity before North, Freo, Melbourne and, later, GC17 and GWS really start growing up, and we need to capitalise -- just need to find a way to knock Collingwood off, which may not be too hard if they have anything resembling post-flag blues.

[Remi Moses]

I'd have North and Carlton in and Adelaide and Melbourne out.
Carlton's one man midfield and I think Norf's youngsters are as good as Melbourne's.
Not sold on Adelaide those late season wins sometimes hide cracks in a side,just can't see Sydney sliding out .

[The Bulldogs Bite]

I should have said - but forgot - for everyone to post their own, and as usual, we'll reflect after the season.

Always fun to see how wrong I was!

[LostDoggy]

Personally id have the 8 unchanged from this year, except Carlton out, Melbourne in. Top 4 I think will be between these 5 teams; Collingwood, StKilda, Sydney, Hawthorn, Fremantle with Dogs/Cats being the top 4 roughies.

[soupman]

Personally id have the 8 unchanged from this year, except Carlton out, Melbourne in. Top 4 I think will be between these 5 teams; Collingwood, StKilda, Sydney, Hawthorn, Fremantle with Dogs/Cats being the top 4 roughies.

Any reason why you see us falling behind all those other teams? I'd say that we could mount a case for being bigger improvers than St.Kilda, and I'd suggest we are likely to finish higher than Hawthorn and Sydney.

[LostDoggy]

Any reason why you see us falling behind all those other teams? I'd say that we could mount a case for being bigger improvers than St.Kilda, and I'd suggest we are likely to finish higher than Hawthorn and Sydney.

If we don't we would have had a very bad season. Hawthorn aren't going anywhere (unless Franklin has another blinder of a season, which is very unlikely considering his lifestyle) and are more likely to miss the eight than make the four. Clarkson dead man walking.

[LostDoggy]

Any reason why you see us falling behind all those other teams? I'd say that we could mount a case for being bigger improvers than St.Kilda, and I'd suggest we are likely to finish higher than Hawthorn and Sydney.

I agree StKilda can't improve unless they win the GF, getting to the GF will be an improvement for us, but they haven't lost a lot and gained a couple of forwards. We have lost a lot of experience and gained very little. But, with a full pre-season in Cooney, Murphy, Lake and co. it's going to make it a lot easier. Bit unsure though, not saying I can't see us in the top 4, I just see other teams in there before us.

[LostDoggy]

I've done my ladder in a text file on my desktop yesterday..

Turns out the top 6 is the same as yours TBB, do apologise but did not copy ;)

Also: My thoughts have changed since my last few posts I have just read, more confidence in the doggies mainly :D My placing of Essendon has nothing to do with their NAB Cup campaign, I still think they will be in the 8 to make up the numbers or just outside, with Carlton making up the 8

1. Collingwood
2. Western Bulldogs
3. StKilda
4. Fremantle
5. Hawthorn
6. Geelong
7. Melbourne
8. Essendon
-------------------
9. Carlton
10. Sydney
11. Adelaide
12. North Melbourne
13. Richmond
14. Gold Coast
15. Port Adelaide
16. West Coast
17. Brisbane

[LostDoggy]

1. Collingwood
2. Bulldogs
3. Hawthorn
4. St Kilda
5. Geelong
6. Fremantle
7. Sydney
8. Adelaide
------------------------------
9. Melbourne
10. Carlton
11. Richmond
12. North Melbourne
13. Essendon
14. West Coast
15. Gold Coast
16. Port Adelaide
17. Brisbane

[LostDoggy]

Here's mine...

1. Collingwood - Cant go against them.
2. W Bulldogs - Based on hope but also our list which has plenty of depth. I believe that was proven against Freo yesterday.
3. St Kilda - Hard to see them going down too far, will still make top 4.
4. Fremantle - Would love to see them in the top 4. They had a breakthrough year last year, and should do better IMO.
5. Geelong - The loss of Ablett and Thompson will sting a bit, but will still have a good season.
6. Hawthorn - Cant see them making top 4. A lot of people have, but I just cant see how and why.
7. Carlton - Unfortunate to lose the final against the Swans last year. Can see them making the finals again.
8. Melbourne - Been rebuilding for a few years and this year has to be the one to make the top 8.
----------------------------------------
9. Sydney - New coach, new captain. A lot of things have changed for them. Tough to tell how they will go really.
10. Bombers - Again, hard to tell. New coach, and the players and supporters have a lot of belief. Its just a matter of putting it into action.
11. Adelaide - Bye bye Neile Craig.
12. Richmond - Again will struggle. Maybe top 8 2012.
13. North Melbourne - Come on…really?
14. Port Adelaide - No, no and no.
15. Gold Coast - The toughest to judge. A new team cant burst onto the scene that well…Cant it?!
16. West Coast - Either here, or lower.
17. Brisbane - Fevola gone. No form. Doesn’t look good.

[Greystache]

Collingwood
St kilda
Western Bulldogs
Fremantle
Geelong
Hawthorn
Carlton
Sydney
---------
Adelaide
Melbourne
Essendon
Port Adelaide
North Melbourne
Richmond
West Coast
Gold Coast
Brisbane

[boydogs]

The top 3 and bottom 3 are pretty clear I reckon - Collingwood, WB & St Kilda up top, and West Coast, Brisbane & Gold Coast at the bottom.

I'm picking Melbourne, Essendon & North to improve, and Geelong, Hawthorn & Freo to fall.

Collingwood
WB
St Kilda
Sydney
Carlton
Geelong
Fremantle
North Melbourne
---
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Essendon
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Richmond
West Coast
Brisbane
Gold Coast

[Ozza]

Collingwood - no reason to suggest they won't improve enough to stay on top.
Bulldogs - well, I have to be optimistic....but I think we could have a better balanced side this year.
St.Kilda - will still be mighty hard to toss.
Geelong - Still a very good side.
Hawthorn - lack a bit of class in the midfield at times...but will be strong.
Fremantle - Will be hard to beat at home...still pretty young side.
Carton - I think the sub rule will be favourable to them - lots of midfield depth.
Sydney - Whether they are 5th through to 10th may depend on how many games Bradshaw gets on the park for.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adelaide - quite like their young crop.
Essendon - lots of pace...tipping they'll have a good start to the year.
North Melb - If Petrie plays they will at least have an avenue to goal. Not bad Mids.
Port Adelaide - think they will improve slightly.
Melbourne - Exceeded expectations last year...think they will have a let down year.
Richmond - still very young - but imrpoving.
WCE - hard to see them winning outside of WA.
Brisbane - Weak list - but older heads will get them over the line a few times.
Gold Coast - Can't see them winning any games in the second half of the year....youthful exuberance might get them over the line 2 or 3 times at best.

[Scraggers]

Collingwood
W Bulldogs
Geelong
St. Kilda
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Melbourne
Carlton
---------------
Adelaide
Sydney
Richmond
Port Adelaide
Essendon
Nth. Melbourne
Gold Coast
Brisbane
West Coast

[Ghost Dog]

Collingwood - no reason to suggest they won't improve enough to stay on top.
Bulldogs - well, I have to be optimistic....but I think we could have a better balanced side this year.
St.Kilda - will still be mighty hard to toss.
Geelong - Still a very good side.
Hawthorn - lack a bit of class in the midfield at times...but will be strong.
Fremantle - Will be hard to beat at home...still pretty young side.
Carton - I think the sub rule will be favourable to them - lots of midfield depth.
Sydney - Whether they are 5th through to 10th may depend on how many games Bradshaw gets on the park for.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Adelaide - quite like their young crop.
Essendon - lots of pace...tipping they'll have a good start to the year.
North Melb - If Petrie plays they will at least have an avenue to goal. Not bad Mids.
Port Adelaide - think they will improve slightly.
Melbourne - Exceeded expectations last year...think they will have a let down year.
Richmond - still very young - but imrpoving.
WCE - hard to see them winning outside of WA.
Brisbane - Weak list - but older heads will get them over the line a few times.
Gold Coast - Can't see them winning any games in the second half of the year....youthful exuberance might get them over the line 2 or 3 times at best.

Nice read Ozza. Good to see a bit of commentary as well. Like to expand a little on balance in our list ?- interested to know your view, not taking a pot shot. If some youngsters step up this season, I feel the balance will be ok. alot of things have to go right though. Challenging burden above their years falls to Jones and Grant. Youth may prevail. What's your view?

[Mantis]

Nice work Ozza. Good to see a bit of commentary as well. Where do we lack balance? If some youngsters step up this season, I feel the balance will be ok. alot of things have to go right though. What's your view?

Ozza did say that we will be better balanced this year.

[Ozza]

Nice read Ozza. Good to see a bit of commentary as well. Like to expand a little on balance in our list ?- interested to know your view, not taking a pot shot. If some youngsters step up this season, I feel the balance will be ok. alot of things have to go right though. Challenging burden above their years falls to Jones and Grant. Youth may prevail. What's your view?

As Mantis pointed out - I think you may have just read my post incorrectly - as I was saying I believe we WILL be better balanced this year.

It's been a relatively common theme and fairly accepted that we lacked pace in the forward line last year - and we seem to have injected some with not only our recruits - but also the foreseeable improvements from both younger guys - and guys who will hopefully be injury free.

With Hahn, Johnno, Aker (for periods) and a half-rat-power-Higgins last year - we were a bit clunky down forward (for lack of a better term). I'm excited that we appear to have looked to directly address that.

I also think Williams looks to have improved enough since mid-last year to be seen as a genuine key back - not just the match up for the 3rd tall or similar - which may enable us to use Morris on some other dangerous forwards.

A fit Cooney in the midfield, and possibly having Higgins, Sherman and perhaps Wallis/Libba gives us some more midfield depth and takes some pressure off Boyd and Griffen who carried much of the load late in the year.

[Ghost Dog]

As Mantis pointed out - I think you may have just read my post incorrectly - as I was saying I believe we WILL be better balanced this year.



Ok, fair enough. so we are second on your prediction, and what are the main factors there. It's hard to see that pace will now be an issue.

[LostDoggy]

Ok. Going to cheat a little and have a crack at this round 5:

Collingwood
Western Bulldogs (still think we'll get it together - assumes we beat hawthorn!)
Geelong
Hawthorn
Carlton
Sydney
Essendon
Fremantle
Adelaide (due to the draw only)
St Kilda
West Coast
North Melbourne
Richmond
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Gold Coast

[anfo27]

First time I have looked at this thread and am amazed so many have us 2nd on the ladder. I know it was before the season started but I just don't know what some posters have seen that I haven't. I didn't see anything in the pre season that would suggest any improvement in ladder position for this year.
We need to take our rose coloured glasses off and take a reality pill. We are behind Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle & maybe Sydney. I would say we are definately better than Brisbane, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast & thats it.

[Flamethrower]

The top 7 spots are sewn up....

Collingwood
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Essendon
Geelong
Carlton
Sydney Swans

with only the order to be sorted out.

That leaves us in a dog fight with Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast, Melbourne, and Richmond for 8th.

North, Brisbane, Port and Gold Coast can start planning for 2012.

My ladder predictor today has us sneaking into 8th with 10 wins, with the draw costing St Kilda, Melbourne and Richmond, all finishing 2 points behind us (9 1/2 wins).

[Ghost Dog]

First time I have looked at this thread and am amazed so many have us 2nd on the ladder. I know it was before the season started but I just don't know what some posters have seen that I haven't. I didn't see anything in the pre season that would suggest any improvement in ladder position for this year.
We need to take our rose coloured glasses off and take a reality pill. We are behind Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle & maybe Sydney. I would say we are definately better than Brisbane, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Richmond, North Melbourne, West Coast & thats it.

Behind Carlton?? Not sure even Carlton supporters would agree.
7 points behind Freo in WA .... big maybe with Sydney.

[anfo27]

Behind Carlton?? Not sure even Carlton supporters would agree.
7 points behind Freo in WA .... big maybe with Sydney.

Absolutely we are.

I guess we will find Sydney soon enough

[bornadog]

We win the next four games and we will sneak into the 8.

[Mantis]

We win the next four games and we will sneak into the 8.

The likelihood of that happening is what... 100/1?

[bornadog]

The likelihood of that happening is what... 100/1?

probably

[LostDoggy]

We win the next four games and we will sneak into the 8.

And from there, be the first team to win it from 8th spot.

Picken to win the Brownlow.

[soupman]

And from there, be the first team to win it from 8th spot.

Picken to win the Brownlow.

Panos for the Coleman. Bookmark it:rolleyes:

[LostDoggy]

& everytime I have played with the ladder predictor for the last 4 months It finishes with Collingwood playing Geelong in the GF.

[Sedat]

The likelihood of that happening is what... 100/1?
We'll start about $2.30 this week v Essendon, $1.20 v Port, $4.00 v Hawthorn and about $1.60 v Freo. I don't know how to calculate rolling odds but you'll also need to factor in the likes of Essendon winning no more than 1 out of 3, Freo winning no more than 1 out of 4, North winning no more than 2 out of 3, and Melbourne winning no more than 3 out of 4. All of this is on top of us winning 4 out of 4. Perversely, because we play both Essendon and Freo, we will be big players in shaping the 8. But in terms of actually making the 8, where it all falls down is against the Hawks, who will have Carlton and West Coke breathing down their necks for the double chance. Hawks will have to have an absolute shocker for us to get over them. Also the personnel we have on the park will have a huge bearing - if Morris and Cooney don't get up this week I can't see us beating Essendon at Etihad.

Sad thing is if Goodes kicked what he should have and Razor Ray decided to let the players be the centre of attention instead of himself, we'd be a game out of the 8 behind Freo (and 2 points behind Essendon with a game in hand) with a better percentage than Freo and with our destiny completely in our hands.

[Rocco Jones]

We'll start about $2.30 this week v Essendon, $1.20 v Port, $4.00 v Hawthorn and about $1.60 v Freo.

I'm going to try to be a maths wiz nerd, I believe you just keep multipying. For example tossing a coin, heads would be priced at $2 (agency cut aside of course!). The chances of tossing heads twice is $4 (2 x 2) as it is a 1 in 4 chance of occuring (heads/heads, tails/tails. t/h and h/t).

Using your odds, we are would be paying $17.67 to win all four. Using non agency cut odds though, I would have us at about $8 to beat the Hawks. That would take our price of winning 4 in a row to $35.33.

[1eyedog]

We'll start about $2.30 this week v Essendon, $1.20 v Port, $4.00 v Hawthorn and about $1.60 v Freo. I don't know how to calculate rolling odds but you'll also need to factor in the likes of Essendon winning no more than 1 out of 3, Freo winning no more than 1 out of 4, North winning no more than 2 out of 3, and Melbourne winning no more than 3 out of 4. All of this is on top of us winning 4 out of 4. Perversely, because we play both Essendon and Freo, we will be big players in shaping the 8. But in terms of actually making the 8, where it all falls down is against the Hawks, who will have Carlton and West Coke breathing down their necks for the double chance. Hawks will have to have an absolute shocker for us to get over them. Also the personnel we have on the park will have a huge bearing - if Morris and Cooney don't get up this week I can't see us beating Essendon at Etihad.

Sad thing is if Goodes kicked what he should have and Razor Ray decided to let the players be the centre of attention instead of himself, we'd be a game out of the 8 behind Freo (and 2 points behind Essendon with a game in hand) with a better percentage than Freo and with our destiny completely in our hands.

Please refer to the The Tragic Comedy Thread

[Sedat]

I'm going to try to be a maths wiz nerd, I believe you just keep multipying. For example tossing a coin, heads would be priced at $2 (agency cut aside of course!). The chances of tossing heads twice is $4 (2 x 2) as it is a 1 in 4 chance of occuring (heads/heads, tails/tails. t/h and h/t).

Using your odds, we are would be paying $17.67 to win all four. Using non agency cut odds though, I would have us at about $8 to beat the Hawks. That would take our price of winning 4 in a row to $35.33.
Add in the odds of all the other results falling our way and they would surely blow out to over 50/1. If we lose this week we might end up being double-figure odds against the Hawks, as you can bet your bottom dollar we'll book in most of our key players for post-season surgery.