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Bulldog Revolution
05-05-2011, 04:37 PM
Last time

Whilst in 2008 and 2009 the gap between 4th and 8th place on the ladder was significant in 2010 it was not. In last years finals the Swans beat Carlton by a goal and then were beaten by a goal by the Dogs, highlighting that the gap between 4th and 8th was not much.

In the Qualifying Final last year the Swans seemingly had the Dogs on toast, and were skipping clear midway through the second quarter only to be reeled back in. Goodes, Shaw, McGlynn were running all over the ground but then Andrew Hooper on debut kicked a goal reducing the margin to 16 points at half time and the Dogs outmuscled the Swans in the second half thanks to Cross, Gia, Murphy and co.

Form

Since the last meeting the Swans have changed coach with longtime assistant Longmire taking the reigns. With the youth (Jetta, Rohan, Reid, Dennis Lane) and recruits (Mumford, McGlynn, Kennedy, Seaby) introduced in 2010 they'd have to be hopeful things were looking up. I have to confess to having seen little of the Swans in 2011 apart from a dreadful final quarter against the Dees in round 1 where they did very well not be overrun.

The Dogs prez Smorgo has talked premierships but the actions of the coaching staff have been to promote youth and inexperience: Libba, Wallis, Markovic, Roughead, Djekerra, Jones etc suggesting that they believe the side needs a more serious makeover to once again challenge for silverware.

Hard to get a line through both teams form at this stage, well maybe its just that as a Dogs fan its a painful reality that we just haven't been good. The Dogs have been nothing better than patchy, beating two of the main wooden spoon contenders. The Swans would have to be judged in better form having beaten improvers Essendon and West Coast, whilst only narrowly losing to the also hot Blues.

Injuries

Sydney Swans

Daniel Bradshaw (knee) - indefinite
Campbell Heath (knee) - 1 week
Kieren Jack (ankle) - 4-6 weeks
Alex Johnson (hamstring) - test
Nick Malceski (knee) - 2-3 weeks
Gary Rohan (knee) - indefinite

Western Bulldogs
Daniel Giansiracusa (hamstring) - test
Barry Hall (ankle) - 2-3 weeks
Shaun Higgins (groin) - test
Ben Hudson (ankle) - test 

Easton Wood (ankle) - 4-5 weeks
Patrick Veszpremi (hand) - 2 weeks

Selection table

Swans:
Kieran Jack's ankle injury robs the swans of one of their most dynamic midfielders, with Brett Meredith perhaps most likely to replace him, whilst Malceskis absence weakens their depth of running defenders. Grundy is expected to return and may likely match up dog Liam Jones. Without the underrated Bradshaw out they are robbed of the best forward, and Jesse White's form is once again an issue for the Swans match committee to consider but they'd be likely to play him against the Lake-less dogs.

Dogs:
Hall's injury also robs the dogs of their best forward, whilst Higgins is an emerging star capable of playing forward and midfield, whilst Lakes demotion to the VFL changes the look down back for the Dogs. Giansiracusa and Hudson are likely to return and Roughead will be dropped after Minson played with the oomph of a man who had not had a run all year. There might be other changes to the fringes of the team

Who will win, and why?

The Dogs have performed well against the Swans recently, and at Manuka, apart from the late regular season debacle at the SCG when Cooney and Morris were injured early.

On form its hard to tip the Dogs in this one, but I'd like to think the character of the group and the senior core could find a way to impose their will on this one. You would have to hope that we could match their in and under types of Bolton and Kennedy midfield and then its really a question of whether we can find some drive, in the form of outside run, to cut them up. Griffen is absolutely the key to us winning, and gee if ever we'd like to see twinkle toes Cooney carve up Manuka Oval it is Saturday.

The Swans are missing some damaging players but still have Goodes, the underrated McGlynn, etc

Head V Heart?

The head says Swans have too much run for us, but that would be boring

Dogs by 1 point

I'll leave others to comment on key matchups as I've seen too little of the Swans

Ozza
05-05-2011, 04:43 PM
Thanks for the preview BR. I think an important aspect you noted was the 'run' of the swans.
Due to the Swans being a contested footy focussed, relatively slow side - it appears often forgotten how quick they are these days.

I'm glad Kieran Jack is out - he was a nightmare for us late last year.

bornadog
05-05-2011, 04:44 PM
Thanks BR great preview.

Who do you think will match up on Goodes? He always seems to play well against us and is in good form this year.

LostDoggy
05-05-2011, 05:11 PM
Thanks BR great preview.

Who do you think will match up on Goodes? He always seems to play well against us and is in good form this year.

He's a tough one to match up on - he is athletic, has a big tank and is surprisingly tall! He does usually play well against us (unfortunately). I am having trouble remembering who usually gets the job?

Thanks for the preview BR!

SlimPickens
05-05-2011, 05:17 PM
He's a tough one to match up on - he is athletic, has a big tank and is surprisingly tall! He does usually play well against us (unfortunately). I am having trouble remembering who usually gets the job?

Thanks for the preview BR!

You'd have to go with Morris wouldn't you?

bornadog
05-05-2011, 05:24 PM
You'd have to go with Morris wouldn't you?

Morris usually picks him up in the forward line, but can't remember who goes with him when he plays the ruckrover type of role.

SlimPickens
05-05-2011, 05:26 PM
Morris usually picks him up in the forward line, but can't remember who goes with him when he plays the ruckrover type of role.

They dropped White, so thinking he'll play forward the majority. If he goes in the midfield- Boyd head to head.

Maddog37
05-05-2011, 06:07 PM
Williams will get him.

LostDoggy
05-05-2011, 06:26 PM
Morris usually picks him up in the forward line, but can't remember who goes with him when he plays the ruckrover type of role.

With Goodes , yes Morris when he's forward , in the midfield probably Picken , he's strong enough to pressure him into mistakes

.

Hotdog60
05-05-2011, 09:00 PM
Williams will get him.

If I remember right Williams had him last year at times and Goodes kicked some easy goals on him.

Williams seemed to be half asleep when Goodes went on the lead.

Maddog37
05-05-2011, 10:28 PM
Reckon Tom was injured that night. Goodes is too big for Morris and too fast and agile for Marko IMO.

Bulldog Revolution
06-05-2011, 08:59 AM
Who do you think will match up on Goodes? He always seems to play well against us and is in good form this year.

I agree with others that when he plays forward Williams seems the logical choice

I feel like we have had more success with not throwing the Gorillas to Morris this year, even though Goodes is not a gorilla hes still very big. Morris is perhaps the ideal option to have up our sleave should it all go wrong.

If he has bursts in the midfield I'd guess Boyd, given McVeigh will likely run with Griffen or Conney


If I remember right Williams had him last year at times and Goodes kicked some easy goals on him.

Williams seemed to be half asleep when Goodes went on the lead.

Tommy did seem to drop off Goodes too far on the leads and allowed him to get some relatively easy touches, I guess they'd be hoping that it could be a lesson learnt

egan-kennedy-ford
06-05-2011, 10:49 AM
Morris has a great record with taller opponents and will keep up with Goodes on the ground. I think he'll get the job when Goodes goes forward.

Goodes isn't a pack marking gorilla type, most of his grabs are on the burst. The main thing, though, is that he's really footy smart and Morris is the best equipped to deal with his tricks.

I've liked Griffen when he's been given a more defensive element to his role this year. It seems to sharpen him up. Goodes can be exposed defensively when opposed to a hard runner - I think Griffen would be a ripping match up.

Agree with the thoughts on Keiran Jack, with Jack out I think we can win the contested footy which will go a long way to determining the game.

The Swans other gun in tight this year has been Josh Kennedy, who has a big body and good endurance. He is a tricky match up, maybe a mixture of Boyd and Griffen, with Griffen going to Goodes when he is in the midfield?

I think Picken will take the other main midfield weapon, McVeigh.

Pretty exciting times with all the new faces. I am still upbeat about our prospects this year - although we are a fair way off the pace we have plenty of upside.

Forward structure this week will be interesting, still a lot of work to be done there. Need Jarrad Grant getting involved in more passages. Liked Liam Jones deep.

Would love to see Zeph Skinner start and show some real intent, especially defensively. He is the sort of character that can energise a team. If he lays a couple of big tackles early, I can see the likes of Grant lifting immensely.

Mantis
06-05-2011, 10:52 AM
Thanks BR for doing a fine effort at short notice.

The Sydney team looks a little light on in the talent stakes and if we can keep a couple of their key players down (Goodes, McGlynn, Shaw) we should be able to record a win.

Our defensive match-ups will be intriguing, especially with regard to Goodes and to a lesser extent McGlynn. As others have suggested Williams would probably go to Goodes which will allow Morris to go to McGlynn... bad luck Benny.

If our intensity is on par with how it's been over the past couple we will win.

Lake Superior
06-05-2011, 10:54 AM
If I remember right Williams had him last year at times and Goodes kicked some easy goals on him.

Williams seemed to be half asleep when Goodes went on the lead.

Wouldnt say he was half asleep Goodes was just way to quick off the mark for Williams. I'd prefer to see Morris take him when he is up forward

LostDoggy
06-05-2011, 11:04 AM
Reckon Tom was injured that night. Goodes is too big for Morris and too fast and agile for Marko IMO.

I'm still yet to see this slow lumbering side of Markovic. The only time I've seen him beaten on a lead is when he gets blocked, or the kick is centremetre perfect. I think he's capable of doing the job.

Maddog37
06-05-2011, 11:19 AM
Maybe I should have said too agile.

Kelso @ Mt Eliza
06-05-2011, 12:09 PM
Everybody here seems to be concerned with the Goodes matchup.. I certainly am not... if he plays foward it will help play into our hands since Morris or Williams or Markovic are well equipped. Whilst Morris is clearly our best defender (with the new improved 2011 version of the Bob Murphy), I think that Williams is a better balance match up, as Morris could then swing across to O'keefe or the next dangerous option, and free Picken to a central tag job on either Jude Bolten or J.McVeigh. In my opinion, more than any other game, this one will be decided by clearances, particularly centre. McVeigh and Bolten pose our biggest risk as they are proven performers in the middle, particularly McVeigh against us. Therefore Picken & Cross need to be primed, and Griffen, Boyd & Cooney need to get off the leash.. Look for Mitch Wallis to make an imact in this game... heading up the Canberra shortly... Go Dogs! Will be a very hard fought and narrow win..

Bulldog Revolution
06-05-2011, 01:55 PM
Our defensive match-ups will be intriguing, especially with regard to Goodes and to a lesser extent McGlynn. As others have suggested Williams would probably go to Goodes which will allow Morris to go to McGlynn... bad luck Benny.

If our intensity is on par with how it's been over the past couple we will win.

I'd been thinking if McGlynn plays midfield then Picken would get him, but I've not seen a lot of them this year, and Morris is certainly an option, and has been in sensational form

Gilbee might get another forward defensive job on Shaw, with Gia also an option

Both the Swans and us are teams in transition - interesting that they brought in two kids to play us as well, but then we went for Stack and Skinner.

Im presuming Skinner will be the sub



Everybody here seems to be concerned with the Goodes matchup .. I certainly am not...

We hope you are right, but he is a superstar and a proven match winner coming off a performance for which he has been criticised. If we can contain him it will go a long way to guaranteeing a win

stefoid
06-05-2011, 04:07 PM
Boyd went to Pavlich after 1/4 time and did a fair job of restricting him, and got leather poisoning himself. I think Pav had half his disposals in the first quarter before Boyd took him. Definately save Morris for the oppositions most dangerous non-keypo.

bornadog
06-05-2011, 04:11 PM
Boyd went to Pavlich after 1/4 time and did a fair job of restricting him, and got leather poisoning himself. I think Pav had half his disposals in the first quarter before Boyd took him. Definately save Morris for the oppositions most dangerous non-keypo.

Morris has been on fire stopping the oposition dangerous smalls.

Cyberdoggie
06-05-2011, 04:29 PM
I think our midfield quality will be to good for them.

Boyd, Cross, Cooney, Griffen and co should have good games.

Losing Jack perhaps may help our cause somewhat.

stefoid
06-05-2011, 04:35 PM
Youd have to say cooney was due.

bornadog
06-05-2011, 04:47 PM
Youd have to say cooney was due.

The Coach said he will play more midfield this week.

Hotdog60
06-05-2011, 10:06 PM
Wouldnt say he was half asleep Goodes was just way to quick off the mark for Williams. I'd prefer to see Morris take him when he is up forward

Maybe half asleep is a bit harsh on Tommy, how about standing 2 meters off him and thinking the player with the ball was having a shot from outside 50.

As OP have said he may have been injured or hopefully he'll be tighter this time, I suppose Tommy's team mates could have plug the hole Goodes lead into also.

EasternWest
06-05-2011, 10:18 PM
Maybe half asleep is a bit harsh on Tommy, how about standing 2 meters off him and thinking the player with the ball was having a shot from outside 50.

As OP have said he may have been injured or hopefully he'll be tighter this time, I suppose Tommy's team mates could have plug the hole Goodes lead into also.

Fine preview BR.

I thought Tommy was pretty good in the QF on Goodes, but you were right about him being caught off guard on those occasions. Hopefully he learns from that and it doesn't happen again. I'd be happy for him to get first crack at Goodes, hopefully freeing up Morris for a smaller forward.