Bulldogs v Hawks Match Preview

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Match details

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, Sunday 29 May 2011, 4:40pm, Etihad Stadium

Intro

So I guess there’s no point even turning up then on Sunday? No need for us to bother examining the strength’s and weaknesses of our opponent Hawthorn this week, because they are certainties to roll over our carcass us this week, and we’ve no chance? Right??

Yes last week was as abysmal a performance as we’ve seen from our Doggies in 15 or so years. Yes, if you freeze frame that last quarter and a half against the Eagles it appears as if you can almost physically see the spirit of the Dogs players separate from their bodies and float off into the ether.

But there still may be some signs of life in these Dogs yet!
Surely it’s not a fait accompli that we rollover this week?

Eternal Optimist? damn straight I am! If you’re a Dogs supporter and don’t have some level of eternal optimism within your fibre of being then you’re either a masochist or you’re going to develop ulcers very early on in your life. And my shameful performance this week at the Doctors where I clenched my eyes shut and winced in pain whilst I had some blood taken, proves I am no masochist…and so far I don’t have any signs of ulcers.

This week is a massive game for our boys to state the bleeding obvious. A chance for them to redeem themselves somewhat for the inept, insipid performance they put up last week.

A chance for them to show this was an aberration. And an opportunity to back up the words we have heard the Club, coach and players preach this week about it being unacceptable, embarrassing, uncharacteristic and not what we stand for.

Okay so moving forward to Sunday’s game. I’m not going to talk too much about tactics, as I readily admit I'm no football tactician. We do have some here amongst us who are blessed with an understanding of football tactics and who possess an ability to write about it well. Hopefully they can contribute their thoughts on the possible or desirable tactical element of this game within this thread.

I will instead focus on the respective selected sides and highlight some of the key players from either team who I think may be pivotal to the outcome.
I'll also pose some questions for discussion if any are interested.

Last time we met

Round 14 2010

Hawthorn 3.1 7.1 8.6 12.7 (79)
Western Bulldogs 4.1 7.3 9.5 11.10 (76)

GOALS
Hawthorn: Franklin 3, Rioli 2, Roughead 2, Hodge 2, Mitchell, Muston, Renouf
Western Bulldogs: Giansiracusa 2, Hall 2, Grant 2, Cooney, Griffen, Higgins, Johnson, Murphy

BEST
Hawthorn: Hodge, Stratton, Rioli, Mitchell, Birchall, Roughead, Franklin
Western Bulldogs: Boyd, Lake, Cooney, Griffen, Higgins, Harbrow, Cross, Murphy


This Week's Teams

Western Bulldogs

B: Liam Picken, Tom L. Williams, Ryan Hargrave
HB: Robert Murphy, Dale Morris, Easton Wood
C: Daniel Cross, Matthew Boyd, Christian Howard
HF: Ryan Griffen, Liam Jones, Mitchell Wallis
F: Shaun Higgins, Barry Hall, Daniel Giansiracusa
Foll: William Minson, Thomas Liberatore, Callan Ward
I/C: Josh Hill, Ben Hudson, Sam Reid, Lukas Markovic, Brodie Moles, Nathan Djerrkura, Justin Sherman

In: Josh Hill, Sam Reid, Barry Hall, *Christian Howard, Nathan Djerrkura, Mitchell Wallis
Out: Lindsay Gilbee, Brennan Stack, Jarrad Grant
* New: Christian Howard (Sacred Heart College/Glenelg

Hawthorn

B: Paul Puopolo, Josh Gibson, Thomas Murphy
HB: Grant Birchall, Ryan Schoenmakers, Brent Guerra
C: Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Shane Savage
HF: Chance Bateman, Lance Franklin, Shaun Burgoyne
F: Cyril Rioli, Jarryd Roughead, Michael Osborne
Foll: Max Bailey, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
I/C: Rick Ladson, Clinton Young, Brendan Whitecross, Jordan Lisle, Liam Shiels, Luke Breust, Matt Suckling

* In: Rick Ladson, Clinton Young, Jordan Lisle


Milestones

Daniel Giansiracusa 200 games
Christian Howard-first game.

Expectations

Hawthorn have been in good form, having won their last 3 games. Whilst perhaps not in the quite the same form as the current top 4 sides, they are at least showing they are right in the mix vying for the next rung of team to be jockeying for a Top 4 berth come September. They have some worrying injuries to key personnel in their ruck division and their defense. But they have somehow offset this, by their hardworking midfield and their potent forward line. Coupled with they have displayed in recent weeks a capacity to work hard and Buddy is almost back to his 2008 form, and ominously is now working very hard up and down the ground creating scoring opportunities for his teammates and not just scoring on his own.

On the flipside we know where our Bulldogs currently sit, and it is almost at the extreme opposite of the Hawks. Our midfield has been unable to (unwilling?) to dominate games, our team as a whole has not been willing to work hard, create space or use the ball with any sort of reliability.

So what do we expect this week? Is anything less than a win unacceptable?
For me, whilst a win is paramount to this being a total success, equally important in my eyes are that we:

compete hard- no contest shirked no easy possession allowed to the opposition
we work hard to space- this means that eveyone works hard both ways, in defense and offense
we work hard for each other and we support each other as a team, and most importantly
we never give in, even if the result is beyond us.


Questions on notice


Can we win?

Who do you think our sub will be this week? Hill, Djerrkura, Sam Reid, Brodie Moles, someone else?

Is Gilbee's axing the end for him? And if so, what does Howard have to do to show he is the long term replacement for him?

For those tacticians out there:


How do we negate Buddy, and who gets the job on Morris when he goes roaming upfield?

What is a weakness of Hawthorn that we can expose?

What is the key to beating the Hawks, gameplan wise?



My Verdict

My heart says the Dogs will win it, as I said I am an eternal optimist. I think the shock from last week will see us come out and show the kind of resolve we have not displayed all season. I'm hoping Will can dominate in the ruck early and force the Hawks to play Roughy for prolonged periods in the middle and take him out of the forward line.

Dogs by 8 points.

[choconmientay]

Entertained reading. I like your calm and relaxing way to write up the match preview :) Thanks! My heart also says we will win this game ... :) just not by much.

[bornadog]

A great way to preview this weeks game especially after the debacle last week. Well done YHF.

This is a must win game as I cannot see us winning the following week.

[Remi Moses]

Nice write up .Hawthorn by plenty
Franklin to make a mess out of us

[LostDoggy]

......"Eternal Optimist? damn straight I am! If you’re a Dogs supporter and don’t have some level of eternal optimism within your fibre of being then you’re either a masochist or you’re going to develop ulcers very early on in your life"............

Great preview YHF - loved your line I've quoted above. I am the eternal optimist too and I don't have ulcers either! Close one, but Doggies will win!

[Maddog37]

I am a little worried about Rioli at this point. We need to dominate the rucks and hope BBB has a good game.

Jones could have a big game if we use him well IMO.

[boydogs]

BEST
Western Bulldogs: Boyd, Lake, Cooney, Griffen, Higgins, Harbrow, Cross, Murphy

I think we'll win as well, but with 4 of the top 6 last time MIA we will need new contributors

[w3design]

The optimism of our fans genuinely makes me smile. After the wretched feelings on the weekend it shows how resilient the bulldog spirit can be. Despair slowly gives way to resignation, then a smidgins of hope, then a stubborn belief that we can do it!

But looking over the teams and seeing the missing personnel from last year's terrific contest at the G against them..it really is only heart that could get us through this week. If I had to be brutally honest I wouLd tip a brave competitive first half from us but a gradual wearing down of our resistance and a comfortable win to the 'poo and wee' colored brigade.

I'll be there though. What a famous win it would be. Actually I've changed my mind. We'll get home by a point when Buddy kicks OOF from point blank range after the siren!:D

[Hotdog60]

After last week we will come out hard and determined, if we lose it won't be from lack of effort. It's happened in the past so I expect a win and then the test comes the following week.

Can they as a group bring that same intensity for more than one week at a time.

[Daughter of the West]

Eternal Optimist? My dad to a tea


a masochist or you’re going to develop ulcers very early on in your life I think that's more like me!

Very, very nervous about this week, but I'm hoping the boys come out with the steel-y, "CRUSH 'EM!!!" mindset like we did against Freo after kicking out he who shall not be named.

[Mantis]

Not an easy job this week YHF so well done on a fine effort.

Answers :

1.Can we win? Yes

2. Who do you think our sub will be this week? Hill, Djerrkura, Sam Reid, Brodie Moles, someone else? Hill or Djerrkura

3. Is Gilbee's axing the end for him? No. And if so, what does Howard have to do to show he is the long term replacement for him? First up just want to see a solid work ethic... the rest will come in time.

4. How do we negate Buddy, and who gets the job on Morris when he goes roaming upfield? Williams mostly, Morris at times, let's just hope that this week isn't the time that Buddy kicks straight.

5. What is a weakness of Hawthorn that we can expose? Ruck & backline. We just have to win the ball out of the middle and get quick supply to our forwards.

6. What is the key to beating the Hawks, gameplan wise? Win the contested possession count.

-----

This week is our very own line in the sand game... After the embarrassment of last Sunday we just need to get our effort at an acceptable level. If we can't we just have to turn over players until we find 22 guys who are willing to at the very least to have a crack for a full 120 minutes.

I am fully expecting us to have a dip, we have come along way in the last 5 or 6 years and I won't accept that we will tip that down the drain.... Just too much at stake for all parties involved.

[LostDoggy]

Very, very nervous about this week, but I'm hoping the boys come out with the steel-y, "CRUSH 'EM!!!" mindset like we did against Freo after kicking out he who shall not be named.

Actually, and also from last season, if we get up it will be more like the grinding late season win against the Crows at Footy Park in the wet, senior players out with injury and illness, the week after getting a 100-point pasting by the Cats.

[LostDoggy]

6. What is the key to beating the Hawks, gameplan wise? Win the contested possession count.


This.

[Ghost Dog]

I'm sick of Sunday games!

[Mantis]

Actually, and also from last season, if we get up it will be more like the grinding late season win against the Crows at Footy Park in the wet, senior players out with injury and illness, the week after getting a 100-point pasting by the Cats.

We got flogged by Geelong the week after the win at Footy Park.

[LostDoggy]

Have a good feeling for the dogs to bounce back.. massive odds 3.6 ... back to home ground,Hawks brittle backline ,dogs dominant in the ruck

[comrade]

We got flogged by Geelong the week after the win at Footy Park.

Yep, you should know.

[ratsmac]

Nice work YHF. I wish I shared your optimism. I think we'll get touched up again this week though. I hope we don't but I fear Buddy Franklin.
Hawks by 42. If we lose by a goal though, I think that will piss me off more.

[LostDoggy]

We got flogged by Geelong the week after the win at Footy Park.

Wow is my memory that bad? What the hell is wrong with me.

Okay, then I think we beat Sydney in a grinding game the week after we got flogged by the Cats in the finals right?

Me and my faulty recollection are both bowing out disgracefully from this conversation now..

[Greystache]

Wow is my memory that bad? What the hell is wrong with me.

Okay, then I think we beat Sydney in a grinding game the week after we got flogged by the Cats in the finals right?

Me and my faulty recollection are both bowing out disgracefully from this conversation now..

Nope, got pumped by Sydney. With the added bonus of Cooney doing his hammy and Morris breaking his back.

[LostDoggy]

Nope, got pumped by Sydney. With the added bonus of Cooney doing his hammy and Morris breaking his back.

That's H&A right? My post mentioned the finals I think -- We made the PF so we must have beaten them in a final after losing badly to Collingwood in the first final, Brett Kirk's last game and everything.

Ah I see what I did there -- I said Cats in the finals when I meant Collingwood.

Seriously, I just need to shut up now.

Go Dogs!

[LostDoggy]

First up thanks for a great preview YHF, it in nice to know there are other supported out there trying to remain optimistic even when pessimism/pragmatism may be the more logical road.

I am hopeful that we come out and show a sustained and determined effort this week and take it up to a hawks outfit that in my opnion has a few too many cracks to be a genuine contender.

Where we can win.
The Hawks weak points are well known in terms of their ruck division and key defense. By selecting Minson, Hall and Jones we will certainly stretch them down back and it is to be hoped that Will can dominate Bailey in the middle much as he did against Box Hill earlier this year.

If we can work better to Will's ruckwork and get the ball into attack quickly we should be able to score against the Hawks defense.

And we will need to..

The Hawks have had time to develop a game plan to counteract their weaknesses, while key injuries have further depleted them in areas of weakness they have played with an undersized defense and weak ruck division for a long time and have learned to adapt their game style around these elements. They remain one of the more potent attacking sides in the comp and their strength in contested ball mean they will have chances to use this. As posted above the key element to set up a win is to win the contested ball.

Big Question 1
Can Williams pick himself up from last week and do the job on Franklin that we need him to do?? On form you would say no, but I recall thinking the same thing in 08 after Tom had a poor game against North and Petrie. Tom has some area of weakness that are a real worry here. Physically he is the perfect matchup for Franklin but he needs to be better in checking Franklin's run with initial body contact and must read the play better. If he does not get good body poistion and waits to react to Franklin's play he will be in trouble.

Watch for Morris or Shaggy to try and work the angle and bulldogs fans to have finger crossed and eyes closed when the ball is pumped in long. If it goes wrong Morris will go to him, but with so much size given away things may not get a lot better.

Big Question2
Who do we select from our 7 man Bench?

Option 1: Four runners
With Libba, Howard and Wallis all effectively first year players, and Higgins and Wood coming off injury layoffs, getting enough run from the team is a major concern, especially after a 6 day break, perth trip and a punitive week on the track. I would like to see us select Sherman, DJ and Reid, with Hill to play as the sub. This is purely because I would like to see where DJ and Reid are at, at AFL level, DJ for his pace and Reid for his strength around the pack and over the ball.

Option two: Three runners and Marko
Marko to play as defensive cover for Roughhead and as the backup Ruck, leaving Williams to play on Franklin with Morris as cover/3rd man up. This helps support Tom on Frankiln but will Evil Roughy expose Marko for pace and do three runners provide sufficient run from the bench??

Option three: Three runners and Huddo
Would show us trying to stretch them where they are weak allowing us to double team their weaker ruck division and leave Minson in the forward line for longer with a 10cm 15kg weight advantage on his opponent. Does not add any defensive cover or running support for our younger players. I can't see the MC going with this strategy, not with the way the team has been named.


Question Three
Does Rocket share our optimism??
There are some worrying signs in terms of selection and quotes from our senior coach relating to developing the list and getting games into young players. Has Eade decided we are in 'full list transition' and that we no longer think of ourselves as competitive this season or is he laying down a challenge to our leaders, especially our older players, trying to provoke them to play for their season/careers??

Outcome?
I think we will come out hard but with so many changes and so many inexperienced players in the team the more settled Hawks look a more likely victor. So my predication is Dogs by 8 points, I am an optimist afer all.

[Sedat]

Great stuff YHF.

One area that Hawthorn have improved significaitly is in their ability to spread from the contest and provide run and carry. Shiels and Savage in particular have been able to run the lines, complimenting the inside grunt work from the likes of Mitchell, Burgoyne and Sewell. If Picken continues to be used as our run-with option on the opposition's best line-breaker, I reckon he'll probably be assigned to one of these two.

As others have alludede to, the game will be won and lost out of the middle. We deny Buddy and co the ball in dangerous areas, we'll go a long way to winning. And their backline is every bit as fragile as ours, so a Minson could easily kick another bag of 4 if the supply is there. Hall, if he is 100% recovered from his ankle, would also be a tough match-up for Hawthorn's defenders, although Josh Gibson has been in stellar form for them.

[Ghost Dog]

Great stuff YHF.

One area that Hawthorn have improved significaitly is in their ability to spread from the contest and provide run and carry. Shiels and Savage in particular have been able to run the lines, complimenting the inside grunt work from the likes of Mitchell, Burgoyne and Sewell. If Picken continues to be used as our run-with option on the opposition's best line-breaker, I reckon he'll probably be assigned to one of these two.

As others have alludede to, the game will be won and lost out of the middle. We deny Buddy and co the ball in dangerous areas, we'll go a long way to winning. And their backline is every bit as fragile as ours, so a Minson could easily kick another bag of 4 if the supply is there. Hall, if he is 100% recovered from his ankle, would also be a tough match-up for Hawthorn's defenders, although Josh Gibson has been in stellar form for them.

Great write up

Grit won't be enough. We need to be prepared to catch them off guard by shuffling things around a bit.

Just concerned having Barry back in makes us too predictable.Hall has buried Gibson a few times from memory. Here's hoping.

At the other end, we lack quality defender to match Franklin, so I'd like to see us get right under his skin in this match with a bit of old fashiond close checking. If he's jostled and bullocked at every stoppage, tired out, it won't help his accuracy. A dirty win is maybe just what the doctor ordered for us.

On the topic of morale, one of my criticisms of Grant has been his little 'toe poke' of a ball for a goal then a genteel jog back to position. Narry a fist pump or beat of the chest.
Having been dropped, now it's up to Higgins and Gia, who is having his 200, so now's their chance to let out the frustrations of a long week and have a dip. Each time we get a goal I hope the boys really celebrate it and pump themselves right up.

In the centre, Sewell is quality, they have a good group and it'll be a battle all day. Could it help to throw a few bigger bodies in there to help Libba? Minno a la pavlich the midfielder or other? It'll be a good learning experience for him, but can he last the distance?

Dogs to have a real crack and hold their heads high after the game, no matter what the result. Too much at stake otherwise.

[Mantis]

Great write up
Hall usually does very well on Gibson. He's been too strong in the past. Here's hoping.
I feel its not enough to bring intensity to the table. We need to be prepared to catch them off guard by shuffling things around a bit. Just concerned having Barry back in makes us too predictable.

What sort of moves do you think could be successful and would catch Hawthorn off guard?

[Chicago1]

I'm sick of Sunday games!

I hate twilight matches. It's a 1.40am start for me. I can stomach a 11.10pm or 4.40am start(for me), but the twilight match completely ruins any sort of night's sleep I'd hope to get.

I live in hope. Doggies by 14 points.

[w3design]

I hate twilight matches. It's a 1.40am start for me. I can stomach a 11.10pm or 4.40am start(for me), but the twilight match completely ruins any sort of night's sleep I'd hope to get.

I live in hope. Doggies by 14 points.

I'm in Melbourne and I hate them! With two young kids, going to the football on a Sunday evening is just the worst experience. We have had a schedule to match our performances this year, awful.

I live in hope but looking at those sides and looking at our performances this year I expect the game to be over by quarter time with the Hawthorn forward line having a field day as our back line is flooded with inside 50s from us turning it over on our half forward line (if we get it that far) and our mids watching on standing around with their hands on their hips. Hawthorn by 89.

I read this a couple of times and it does come across as terribly negative but I do think we are in some real strife. We are a long way off the pace. Currently we are a bottom 4 side.

[Ghost Dog]

Testosterone in the fwd line Picken, Sherman, Cross.
At least you know then that if it does get into the fwd 50 they'll bust a nut keeping it in.

bigger bodies in the centre. Similar to what Freo did with Pav. Try to take advantage of their ruck situation and tire them out / help our younger players ward and libba get the edge by putting some blocks on their mids.

I have no real idea what I'm talkin about but a man can dream. ^_^

[w3design]

Rocket has tried putting our 'talent' in the fwd line. Murph, Gillbee. So what about throwing the testosterone in the fwd line? Picken, Ward, Cross. At least you know then that if it does get into the fwd 50 they'll bust a nut keeping it in. Hall is too slow and Higgins doesn't get up fast enough.

Maybe Picken because he can kick a goal but Crossy can't even kick over a jam jar and is so slow he isn't going to exert much defensive pressure. Ward could pinch hit but he's needed around the ball. The problems are manifold but all mainly stem back to a lazy, underskilled, disfunctional midfield.

[the banker]

With the radical team selection, I think we will bust gut but we are lacking so much experience can't see us sustaining an effort for 4 quarters. Hope I'm wrong. First tip against the dogs this year.

Hawks by 28.

[EasternWest]

Good stuff YHF. For no discernible reason, I think we'll win this game. We will win this game.

[chef]

I'm sick of Sunday games!

I love em as it's the only games I can get to.

[LostDoggy]

The big factor is disposal efficiency and defensive pressure in the forward line .

Hawthorn have Osborne, Burgoyne, Savage, Sewell, Bailey, Guerra, Birchall, Murphy, Gibson, Puopolo, Whitecross, Suckling all with a disposal efficiency over 75%

We have Hall, Murphy,Hill, Morris and Wood with a disposal efficiency over 75%

Their forward line has made 151 tackles

Our forward line has made 81 tackles

With Wood and Higgins low on form , Wallis, Libba and Reid as our young prospects , Howard making his debut, Hall back from injury and the whole side on notice after last weeks destroyation , we have our backs to the wall and the only way forward is to fight like hell. The stats above make it crystal clear , tackle like machines and make them stick , when we have possession make it count, everything has to be precise, hit your targets by hand and foot and hurt them on the scoreboard

.

[LostDoggy]

The big factor is disposal efficiency and defensive pressure in the forward line .

Hawthorn have Osborne, Burgoyne, Savage, Sewell, Bailey, Guerra, Birchall, Murphy, Gibson, Puopolo, Whitecross, Suckling all with a disposal efficiency over 75%

We have Hall, Murphy,Hill, Morris and Wood with a disposal efficiency over 75%

Their forward line has made 151 tackles

Our forward line has made 81 tackles

.

What a horribly sad set of stats. I'm still going to take the optimists route and say we will win this game to redeem their names. If we don't, then every bulldogs player better be coming off the field knacked. Red raw from tackling and with claret pouring from smashing in for the hard ball... Dogs by 6 - Griffin from 55 in the last minute :cool:

[JohnGentStand]

Lake in, Gilbee in,...Moles & Hargrave out
I think this leaves us a bit more balanced at least.
here's hoping

[LostDoggy]

I'm sick of Sunday games!

Oh yeah, and add to that it's a twilight game! I'm not sure that I will make it, it just doesn't work into my early morning starts (5.15am). I will try to get there though, as I don't think we have another home game for a while (only have home game membership/seat/social club!)