The Run Home

[Scraggers]

The run home

The remaining nine games for the teams battling to get into the final eight

Fremantle, sixth, 8-6, 32 pts, 97.84%

R16 Bye

R17 v Sydney (SCG)

R18 v West Coast (PS)

R19 v Hawthorn (PS)

R20 v St Kilda (ES)

R21 v Carlton (PS)

R22 v North Melbourne (ES)

R23 v Collingwood (PS)

R24 v W Bulldogs (ES)


Sydney, seventh, 7-6-1, 30 pts, 102.53%

R16 v Gold Coast (MS)

R17 v Fremantle (SCG)

R18 v WBulldogs (SCG)

R19 Bye

R20 v Essendon (ES)

R21 v Richmond (MCG)

R22 v St Kilda (ANZ)

R23 v Geelong (SS)

R24 v Brisbane (SCG)


Essendon, eighth, 6-7-1, 26pts, 107.47%

R16 v Richmond (MCG)

R17 v Adelaide (AAMI)

R18 v Carlton (MCG)

R19 v Collingwood (MCG)

R20 v Sydney (ES)

R21 v WBulldogs (ES)

R22 v West Coast (PS)

R23 v Port Adelaide (ES)

R24 Bye


Melbourne, ninth, 6-7-1, 26pts, 99.00%

R16 Bye

R17 v Port Adelaide (TIO)

R18 v Hawthorn (MCG)

R19 v Geelong (SS)

R20 v Carlton (MCG)

R21 v West Coast (ES)

R22 v Richmond (MCG)

R23 v Gold Coast (MCG)

R24 v Port Adelaide (AAMI)


North Melbourne, 10th, 6-7, 24pts, 105.19

R16 v Collingwood (MCG)

R17 v WBulldogs (ES)

R18 v Brisbane (ES)

R19 v Carlton (ES)

R20 v Hawthorn (AU)

R21 Bye

R22 v Fremantle(ES)

R23 v St Kilda (ES)

R24 v Richmond(ES)


Western Bulldogs, 11th, 6-8, 24pts, 95.79%

R16 v Carlton (ES)

R17 v North Melbourne (ES)

R18 v Sydney (SCG)

R19 v West Coast (ES)

R20 Bye

R21 v Essendon (ES)

R22 v Port Adelaide (AAMI)

R23 v Hawthorn (MCG)

R24 v Fremantle (ES)


Richmond, 12th, 5-8-1, 22pts, 86.49%

R16 v Essendon (MCG)

R17 v Gold Coast (CS)

R18 v Geelong (ES)

R19 Bye

R20 v West Coast (PS)

R21 v Sydney (MCG)

R22 v Melbourne (MCG)

R23 v Adelaide (AAMI)

R24 v North Melbourne (ES)


St Kilda, 13th, 4-7-1, 18pts, 91.59%

R16 v Port Adelaide (AAMI)

R17 v West Coast (ES)

R18 v Adelaide (ES)

R19 v Gold Coast (MS)

R20 v Fremantle(ES)

R21 v Collingwood (ES)

R22 v Sydney (ANZ)

R23 v North Melbourne (ES)

R24 v Carlton (MCG)

[ledge]

I think we will win 5, just missing out.

[LostDoggy]

According to my unbiased ladder predictor I have us finishing 4th. :). Will 14 wins get us there?

[1eyedog]

According to my unbiased ladder predictor I have us finishing 4th. :). Will 14 wins get us there?

Funny that, I have us winning 14 games too.

[LostDoggy]

I like to dream.
I have us on 14 wins and maybe missing out on 4th to WC on percentage.
Play back for the Saints the first week of finals. Turning it around by 150pts in WA over WC the next week.
Telling Geelong they are old in the prelim. Then getting the Pies in the GF everyone predicted preseason.
Simple :)

[Hotdog60]

People said I was dreaming when my ladder had us in 6th at the end.;)

[Happy Days]

I like to dream.
I have us on 14 wins and maybe missing out on 4th to WC on percentage.
Play back for the Saints the first week of finals. Turning it around by 150pts in WA over WC the next week.
Telling Geelong they are old in the prelim. Then getting the Pies in the GF everyone predicted preseason.
Simple :)

I remember calculating a similar theory in 08; we would play Hawthorn in the qualifying, Saints in the prelim and Hawks again in the GF - this way, we would avoid Geelong, the Cats being the only team that could beat us, as during the season we had beaten Hawthorn and St. Kilda twice.

Then Buddy kicked 8.

[Rocco Jones]

I think we will win 5, just missing out.

That would take us to 11-11 right? I think 10-1-11 will be enough to make the eight this season.

[Go_Dogs]

Melbourne get to play Port twice before seasons end? That's just not fair!

[bornadog]

That would take us to 11-11 right? I think 10-1-11 will be enough to make the eight this season.

Yes all those draws will play a part which means percentage may not matter.

[the banker]

We are a chance. Potential 6 wins. There are a lot of outcomes for these teams. Only the stronest will get there - unless its a farce.

[Remi Moses]

Freo have the draw from hell. 11 wins will get us there,but personally won't be slashing my wrists if we don't get there.Strong chance we'd be going to Perth or that Crap hole Olympic stadium.

[G-Mo77]

In all honesty I think it comes down to this week. If we can get a win over a top team like Carlton the momentum should carry us through North and Sydney and set ourselves up for a blockbuster against the Eagles before the bye.

If we drop it the seeds of doubt will creep back in.

[Remi Moses]

Melbourne get to play Port twice before seasons end? That's just not fair!

Melbourne have a terrible record in Adelaide.Wouldn't discount the nothing to lose theory, happens often teams with nothing left to play for.

[mjp]

If we can get a win over a top team like Carlton the momentum should carry us through North and Sydney and set ourselves up for a blockbuster against the Eagles before the bye.


Makes my stomach turn.

[LostDoggy]

Remember those years (2005 being the most recent I think?) where we all end up watching two or three games in the last round or so. Where other teams have to win for the dogs to just scrape into the 8 by percentage?
I'm afraid we could be headding for another one of those.

[Scraggers]

Remember those years (2005 being the most recent I think?) where we all end up watching two or three games in the last round or so. Where other teams have to win for the dogs to just scrape into the 8 by percentage?
I'm afraid we could be headding for another one of those.

I don't see that as a bad thing though ... If we do scrape in, it would be great to get some finals experience into the youngens !!

[LostDoggy]

In all honesty I think it comes down to this week. If we can get a win over a top team like Carlton the momentum should carry us through North and Sydney and set ourselves up for a blockbuster against the Eagles before the bye.

If we drop it the seeds of doubt will creep back in.

Carlton are not a 'top team'.

[chef]

Carlton are not a 'top team'.

They look like it to me this year.

[LostDoggy]

Will find out today if Carlton are.

[ledge]

IF they beat us doesnt make them a top side either.

[LostDoggy]

IF they beat us doesnt make them a top side either.

If they lose they definetly aren't a top side

[Mantis]

If they lose they definetly aren't a top side

The result of one game doesn't determine if a side is a 'top' team.

[GVGjr]

The result of one game doesn't determine if a side is a 'top' team.
For what it's worth I think today's game is important to both clubs seasons. If the Blues beat us convincingly then they will become a legitimate top 4 side and expose us as flat track bullies. Of course if we win, it puts more wind in our finals sails and raises some legitimate questions about the Blues.

This really is a big game.

[Mantis]

For what it's worth I think today's game is important to both clubs seasons. If the Blues beat us convincingly then they will become a legitimate top 4 side and expose us as flat track bullies. Of course if we win, it puts more wind in our finals sails and raises some legitimate questions about the Blues.

This really is a big game.

Agree with all that.

Huge test for our guys, I really hope they come to play.

[Topdog]

Any team that is 3rd after 15 games is a top team.

[AndrewP6]

Carlton are not a 'top team'.

I'd rather be in 4th place than 12th...

[LostDoggy]

Top team are decided at end of the home & away rounds not at round 15

[GVGjr]

I think the interpretation of what classifies a top side or not is going nowhere. Lets get back onto the topic.

[1eyedog]

Question

If the Eagles finish fourth and they lose their first final over there do they get to play a second final at home as well? What I'm getting at is if we win week 1 and they lose week 1 is there any chance of us having to go over there to play them week 2?

Similarly, if they win week 1 over there do they then play their prelim in Perth?

[comrade]

Question

If the Eagles finish fourth and they lose their first final over there do they get to play a second final at home as well? What I'm getting at is if we win week 1 and they lose week 1 is there any chance of us having to go over there to play them week 2?

Similarly, if they win week 1 over there do they then play their prelim in Perth?

Yes to both your questions.

[LostDoggy]

Question

If the Eagles finish fourth and they lose their first final over there do they get to play a second final at home as well? What I'm getting at is if we win week 1 and they lose week 1 is there any chance of us having to go over there to play them week 2?

Similarly, if they win week 1 over there do they then play their prelim in Perth?

If they play their first final in Perth, they won't lose it.

[1eyedog]

If they play their first final in Perth, they won't lose it.

Even if they play the Pies?

[The Coon Dog]

Question

If the Eagles finish fourth and they lose their first final over there do they get to play a second final at home as well? What I'm getting at is if we win week 1 and they lose week 1 is there any chance of us having to go over there to play them week 2?

Similarly, if they win week 1 over there do they then play their prelim in Perth?

If the Eagles finish 4th they will NOT play their first final in Perth. They will ply the team finishing 1st away.

They would then play their next final in Perth (if they beat 1st they would host a Prelim in week 3, but if they lost to 1st they would host a Semi in week 2).

[Sockeye Salmon]

If they play their first final in Perth, they won't lose it.

If they make top 4 they won't play their first final in Perth unless they finish 1 or 2

[LostDoggy]

Even if they play the Pies?

Well, if they play the Pies it won't be in WA, will it? :P

[LostDoggy]

Well, if they play the Pies it won't be in WA, will it? :P

Thats right there is two final eight systems, one for Collingwood and one for the rest. Be interesting how that maneuver would be justified...;)

[1eyedog]

If the Eagles finish 4th they will NOT play their first final in Perth. They will ply the team finishing 1st away.

They would then play their next final in Perth (if they beat 1st they would host a Prelim in week 3, but if they lost to 1st they would host a Semi in week 2).

Gotcha thanks.

[LostDoggy]

Thats right there is two final eight systems, one for Collingwood and one for the rest. Be interesting how that maneuver would be justified...;)

If you finish top 2 its highly unlikely you will play away from home again in a final unless you lose first week of the finals.

[1eyedog]

We need to avoid the Wiggles in Perth in week 1 at all costs.

[The Pie Man]

It's ludicrous, but looking at the fixture, we're more likely than not to play finals now.

One of a trip to Sydney or the Blues @ the G looms as an elimination final should who I view as the favourite in each game get up. I've got the Eagles taking fourth spot from Carlton comfortably.

I think the Saints will make it as well.

Of course, things change so dramatically from week to week. I had the game against Sydney in Canberra as top 4 defnining, and now I see the SCG clash against them next week as potentially season defnining.

[LostDoggy]

I see the SCG clash against them next week as potentially season defnining.

I'm over these season defining games!
Not saying your wrong Pie Man. Just every second game this year has turned out to be season defining.
I hope this is building character in the Lads?

[BulldogBelle]

I would rather the team play against other finals aspirants rather than plonkers leading up to the finals - will develop form, fitness and confidence playing at a high intensity

The Round 23 match against Hawthorn at the MCG will be our 2nd game at the venue for the season

Timlely that its played before the finals

Given that our finals matches will be played at the 'G its important, the R23 match proves very important

[The Pie Man]

I'm over these season defining games!
Not saying your wrong Pie Man. Just every second game this year has turned out to be season defining.
I hope this is building character in the Lads?

Despite me labelling it as such, I do agree with you. I didn't expect to beat Carlton and for us to be in this position (pretty sure I wasn't on my Moses in writing the year off a month back) so now that we're back in it, games become 'live' (so to speak)

And with that, comes some 'definining' moments - a tad dramatic I'll concede :o

[The Pie Man]

Oh, and we can still lose to Sydney and make 8th if other results go to plan. It just is a big game.

Getting ahead of myself of course - North won't be easy after the week from hell Brad Scott will ensure they endure after last week.

[BulldogBelle]

The other thing to keep in mind is that we only have 2 short road trips (Adeliade and Sydney) and only 2 6-day breaks (and no 5 day breaks)

I'm sure considering our tail end of season fade outs in previous years our fitness and conditioning staff have geared our fitness to peak in the tail end of the season...

Given how we fought back from 4+ goals down against Carlton (which requires a heck of energy), I'm hopeful that we are getting the fitness/intensity mix correct...

Here are my biased tips

NORTH MELBOURNE (Etihad) - W
SYDNEY SWANS (SCG) - W
WEST COAST EAGLES (Etihad) - W
ESSENDON (Etihad) - W
PORT ADELAIDE (AAMI) - W
HAWTHORN (MCG) - L
FREMANTLE (Etihad) - W

[Desipura]

The other thing to keep in mind is that we only have 2 short road trips (Adeliade and Sydney) and only 2 6-day breaks (and no 5 day breaks)

I'm sure considering our tail end of season fade outs in previous years our fitness and conditioning staff have geared our fitness to peak in the tail end of the season...

Given how we fought back from 4+ goals down against Carlton (which requires a heck of energy), I'm hopeful that we are getting the fitness/intensity mix correct...

Here are my biased tips

NORTH MELBOURNE (Etihad) - W
SYDNEY SWANS (SCG) - W
WEST COAST EAGLES (Etihad) - W
ESSENDON (Etihad) - W
PORT ADELAIDE (AAMI) - W
HAWTHORN (MCG) - L
FREMANTLE (Etihad) - W

Where would that potentially put us on the ladder with 13 wins?

[angelopetraglia]

Any chance of a top four finish if somehow we pull a miracle and win our next 7 (I know, a touch ambitous)?

That would leave us with 14 wins and 8 losses. 14 wins has secured a top 4 spot in 6 out of the last 7 seasons.

[LostDoggy]

Any chance of a top four finish if somehow we pull a miracle and win our next 7 (I know, a touch ambitous)?

That would leave us with 14 wins and 8 losses. 14 wins has secured a top 4 spot in 6 out of the last 7 seasons.

I did that on the ladder predictor and had us missing out on 4th by percentage to WC.
The way things have gone it's highly likely that if we make finals we will get an interstate game.

[LostDoggy]

I'm over these season defining games!
Not saying your wrong Pie Man. Just every second game this year has turned out to be season defining.
I hope this is building character in the Lads?

That's just what happens when the first half of the season goes down the gurgler and you play out the year with your testes resting on the razorblade. Win one, you're on your way to finals. Lose one, you've made it 300% harder.


I would rather the team play against other finals aspirants rather than plonkers leading up to the finals - will develop form, fitness and confidence playing at a high intensity

The Round 23 match against Hawthorn at the MCG will be our 2nd game at the venue for the season

Timlely that its played before the finals

Given that our finals matches will be played at the 'G its important, the R23 match proves very important

Could backfire if we get pumped on the eve of the finals.


The other thing to keep in mind is that we only have 2 short road trips (Adeliade and Sydney) and only 2 6-day breaks (and no 5 day breaks)

I'm sure considering our tail end of season fade outs in previous years our fitness and conditioning staff have geared our fitness to peak in the tail end of the season...

Given how we fought back from 4+ goals down against Carlton (which requires a heck of energy), I'm hopeful that we are getting the fitness/intensity mix correct...

Here are my biased tips

NORTH MELBOURNE (Etihad) - W
SYDNEY SWANS (SCG) - W
WEST COAST EAGLES (Etihad) - W
ESSENDON (Etihad) - W
PORT ADELAIDE (AAMI) - W
HAWTHORN (MCG) - L
FREMANTLE (Etihad) - W

I can't see us beating West Coast. Mental scars, the press, even at Etihad I just don't see it, unfortunately.

My tips (also biased):

North — Win
Sydney — Win
Eagles — Loss
Essendon — Either way
Port — Win
Hawthorn — Loss
Fremantle — Either way.

[DragzLS1]

I see us beating them all even the eagles by 7 points BUT loosing to hawks by 14. lets hope im right :)

[comrade]

Any chance of a top four finish if somehow we pull a miracle and win our next 7 (I know, a touch ambitous)?

That would leave us with 14 wins and 8 losses. 14 wins has secured a top 4 spot in 6 out of the last 7 seasons.

Ain't footy a funny game?

[LostDoggy]

Think we are more a chance against hawthorn at the g than Essendon at etihad

[1eyedog]

I would rather the team play against other finals aspirants rather than plonkers leading up to the finals - will develop form, fitness and confidence playing at a high intensity

The Round 23 match against Hawthorn at the MCG will be our 2nd game at the venue for the season

Timlely that its played before the finals

Given that our finals matches will be played at the 'G its important, the R23 match proves very important

Season defining?

[1eyedog]

My tips (also biased):

North — Win
Sydney — Win
Eagles — Loss
Essendon — Either way
Port — Win
Hawthorn — Loss
Fremantle — Either way.[/QUOTE]

This is pretty close to it but I think we'll account for Fremantle.How St. Kilda go against the Eagles this week may tell us something about what the Eagles are really like at the Docklands.

[LostDoggy]

Think we are more a chance against hawthorn at the g than Essendon at etihad

:( Big call.

[LostDoggy]

:( Big call.

Half their side is out. From last time we played, we have players back and in better form while they have lost more.
We don't match up well against Essendon.

[Daughter of the West]

I had a dream last night that we lost to North Melbourne.

Wasn't pleasant. On reflection, maybe the dream was a nightmare! :eek:

[The Adelaide Connection]

My tips (also biased):

North — Win
Sydney — Win
Eagles — Loss
Essendon — Either way
Port — Win
Hawthorn — Loss
Fremantle — Either way.

This is pretty close to it but I think we'll account for Fremantle.How St. Kilda go against the Eagles this week may tell us something about what the Eagles are really like at the Docklands.[/QUOTE]

I also agree with this but I would certainly rather play Fremantle this week than in round 24. Knowing our luck they will have their full roster back and be in some ripping form by then.

Edit: Same for Hawthorn in Round 23.

[1eyedog]

This is pretty close to it but I think we'll account for Fremantle.How St. Kilda go against the Eagles this week may tell us something about what the Eagles are really like at the Docklands.

I also agree with this but I would certainly rather play Fremantle this week than in round 24. Knowing our luck they will have their full roster back and be in some ripping form by then.

Edit: Same for Hawthorn in Round 23.[/QUOTE]

I wouldn't. Hawthorn still won't have a back line or Roughhead and the Docker's players who come back in will be underdone. Add to this that they are like a VFL side at Docklands.

[bornadog]

The run home to the finals (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/the-run-home-to-the-finals/story-e6frf9jf-1226101945950)

WESTERN BULLDOGS 12th (7-10)

R19 West Coast (ES)
R20 Bye
R21 Essendon (ES)
R22 Port Adelaide (AS)
R23 Hawthorn (MCG)
R24 Fremantle (ES)

The lowdown: Last chance saloon for the Doggies this week. Needed to win one of two games against Sydney and West Coast to remain in the race, they lost the first now they have to win the second - if they don't, it's curtains. Win and then Round 21 against Essendon is a virtual elimination final for both clubs.

MATT'S LADDER PREDICTION

1st Collingwood (21-1)
2nd Geelong (19-3)
3rd Hawthorn (17-5)
4th West Coast (16-6)
5th Carlton (14-1-9)
6th St Kilda (12-1-9)
7th Western Bulldogs (11-11)
8th Fremantle (11-11)

9th Essendon (10-1-11)
10th Sydney (10-1-11)
11th Melbourne (10-1-11)
12th North Melbourne (10-12)
13th Adelaide (8-14)
14th Richmond (6-1-15)
15th Brisbane Lions (4-18)
16th Gold Coast (3-19)
17th Port Adelaide (2-20)

ADELAIDE currently 14th (4-12)

R19 Port Adelaide (AS)
R20 Brisbane Lions (G)
R21 Geelong (AS)
R22 Gold Coast (MS)
R23 Richmond (AS)
R24 West Coast (PS)

The lowdown: New coach, new direction for the Crows? If you're Mark Bickley you would be rapt to be coming in with a run home that consists of games against the other four sides in the bottom five of the ladder. Provides a chance for him to cement a real claim for the top job next year.

BRISBANE LIONS 15th (3-14)

R19 Bye
R20 Adelaide (G)
R21 Gold Coast (G)
R22 Collingwood (MCG)
R23 West Coast (G)
R24 Sydney (SCG)


Video: Mike and Robbo
Where will your team finish? Herald Sun, 12 Jul 2011
Bucovaz to make MCG debut for Freo Perth Now, 17 Jun 2011
Maxwell back for MCG blockbuster FoxSports, 7 Apr 2011
Pies must lift against Carlton: Ball Herald Sun, 4 Apr 2011
Time for 36ers to make a point Adelaide Now, 2 Apr 2011

The lowdown: Not much more to say. Keeps battling, but eventually keeps coming up just short. Seems to be locked in to 15th spot pretty tightly. Gold Coast game in Round 21 the most interesting thing on the horizon.
CARLTON 4th (11-1-5)

R19 North Melbourne (ES)
R20 Melbourne (MCG)
R21 Fremantle (PS)
R22 Hawthorn (ES)
R23 Bye
R24 St Kilda (MCG)

The lowdown: Massive win on Saturday night renews hopes of a push for top four. An extra metre on Hayden Ballantyne's kick against West Coast on Sunday night would have made it a perfect weekend for the Blues. West Coast still has a game in hand, so Carlton simply must win their next four games if it harbours any aspirations of securing the double chance.

COLLINGWOOD (1st) (15-1)

R19 Essendon (MCG)
R20 Port Adelaide (AS)
R21 St Kilda (ES)
R22 Brisbane Lions (MCG)
R23 Fremantle (PS)
R24 Geelong (MCG)

The lowdown: We now know at least that the Round 24 game against Geelong is on a Friday night at the MCG. Not much else to report.

ESSENDON 9th (8-1-8)

R19 Collingwood (MCG)
R20 Sydney (ES)
R21 Western Bulldogs (ES)
R22 West Coast (PS)
R23 Port Adelaide (ES)
R24 Bye

The lowdown: The bubble burst on Saturday night for the Bombers, but they had their excuses with Jobe Watson, Heath Hocking and Dustin Fletcher all out, while Tayte Pears went down mid-game. Going to be tough now. Game against the Western Bulldogs in Round 21 a virtual elimination final.

FREMANTLE 7th (9-7)

R19 Hawthorn (PS)
R20 St Kilda (ES)
R21 Carlton (PS)
R22 North Melbourne (ES)
R23 Collingwood (PS)
R24 Western Bulldogs (ES)

The lowdown: Fact of the matter is the Dockers are good enough to make the finals, they showed that on Sunday night against West Coast. Fact of the matter is they remain decimated by injuries and face an interesting run home. Hawthorn at home is an interesting challenge, but one they really need to win. Carlton in Round 21 likewise. Win both of those and they're home, drop one and they'll almost certainly have to win a game in Melbourne to seal their fate.

GEELONG 2nd (15-2)

R19 Melbourne (SS)
R20 Gold Coast (SS)
R21 Adelaide (AS)
R22 Bye
R23 Sydney (SS)
R24 Collingwood (MCG)

The lowdown: See Collingwood, reverse team names.

GOLD COAST 16th (3-13)

R19 St Kilda (MS)
R20 Geelong (SS)
R21 Brisbane Lions (G)
R22 Adelaide (MS)
R23 Melbourne (MCG)
R24 Hawthorn (MS)

The lowdown: The Suns were solid against the Pies on Saturday night, but in terms of ladder positioning not much changes this week. Might give themselves every chance of beating Brisbane Lions and Adelaide in Rounds 21 and 22 in order to jump above their Queensland rivals on the ladder.

HAWTHORN 3rd (12-4)

R19 Fremantle (PS)
R20 North Melbourne (AU)
R21 Port Adelaide (MCG)
R22 Carlton (ES)
R23 Western Bulldogs (MCG)
R24 Gold Coast (MS)

The lowdown: The Hawks are another team cursed by injuries, but at least have been blessed with a kind run home. What is really impressive about the Hawks is that they continue to show they have the class to still win the games they should - as they proved by dispatching Melbourne with ease at the weekend. A loss on the road to Fremantle wouldn't surprise, but eyes are really already starting to peer towards the Round 22 clash with Carlton that will inevitably decide whether or not they can finish third.

MELBOURNE 11th (7-1-8)

R19 Geelong (SS)
R20 Carlton (MCG)
R21 West Coast (ES)
R22 Richmond (MCG)
R23 Gold Coast (MCG)
R24 Port Adelaide (AS)

The lowdown: Lost the first of its a horror run of four games. Still has matches against Geelong, Carlton and West Coast to complete the set of all teams from second to fifth on the ladder. Every week the Demons players must tell themselves that even one win from that stretch could give them every chance of snatching eighth spot given they then play three of the bottom four teams in the last three rounds.

NORTH MELBOURNE 10th (8-9)

R19 Carlton (ES)
R20 Hawthorn (AU)
R21 Bye
R22 Fremantle (ES)
R23 St Kilda (ES)
R24 Richmond (ES)

The lowdown: Did what they had to do against Brisbane Lions at the weekend, but the Roos still have a task ahead of them if they want to make September. When you consider they still have tough assignments against Carlton and Hawthorn to come, the Roos can't slip up against Fremantle, St Kilda and Richmond if they want any chance. A win against the Blues on Friday night could provide real impetus for a finals charge - but it is a long time since this team has come up trumps against a genunine top-four team.

PORT ADELAIDE 17th (2-14)

R19 Adelaide (AS)
R20 Collingwood (AS)
R21 Hawthorn (MCG)
R22 Western Bulldogs (AS)
R23 Essendon (ES)
R24 Melbourne (AS)

The lowdown: The Power players and staff would have enjoyed having last weekend off after a long, long year. The Showdown this week seemingly presents the club with a chance to get off the bottom of the ladder given it defeated Adelaide last time around. But you know what they say about clubs playing for the first time with a new coach. The Crows are sure to be fired up.

RICHMOND 13th (5-1-11)

R19 Bye
R20 West Coast (PS)
R21 Sydney (MCG)
R22 Melbourne (MCG)
R23 Adelaide (AS)
R24 North Melbourne (ES)

The lowdown: Well and truly out of the finals race now. This week's bye gives the team the chance to take stock before a tough trip to Perth next weekend. The only interests for the Tigers - aside from player development - remain finishing above Adelaide in 13th and also bettering last year's haul of six wins for the season.

ST KILDA 8th (8-1-7)

R19 Gold Coast (MS)
R20 Fremantle (ES)
R21 Collingwood (ES)
R22 Sydney (ANZ)
R23 North Melbourne (ES)
R24 Carlton (MCG)

The lowdown: The Saints are marching in. Should be able to comfortably make the finals from here, but if they slip up then Friday night's massive win could ultimately be very beneficial from a percentage point of view. Will start favourite in their next two games before tough ones against Collingwood and Sydney (away).

SYDNEY 6th (9-1-7)

R19 Bye
R20 Essendon (ES)
R21 Richmond (MCG)
R22 St Kilda (ANZ)
R23 Geelong (SS)
R24 Brisbane Lions (SCG)

The lowdown: Never thought you would say this about the Swans, but they are really starting to become difficult to read. Terrible at a wet SCG against Fremantle one week, brilliant against the Bulldogs the next. A bye now before two games that will ultimately decide their finals fate. Win both Melbourne assignments, against Essendon and Richmond, and the Swans can stamp their finals ticket, lose both and their fate rests in the hands of others.

WEST COAST 5th (11-5)

R19 Western Bulldogs (ES)
R20 Richmond (PS)
R21 Melbourne (ES)
R22 Essendon (PS)
R23 Brisbane Lions (G)
R24 Adelaide (PS)

The lowdown: Gritty win in the Derby that may eventually be remembered as the game that allowed it to finish top four. It must be remembered that the Eagles are essentially half a game ahead of Carlton given they have a game in hand. The key for the Eagles will be to win at least one of their two remaining games at Etihad Stadium, against the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne. Do that and they are favourites to secure the double chance.

[The Pie Man]

^^^^

Winning 4 of our last 5 is ambitious - but not totally impossible

St Kilda Vs Dogs elim would be interesting

[Sedat]

Winning 4 of our last 5 is ambitious - but not totally impossible
This week's match will decide our fate one way or the other. Author is clearly a Dogs supporter because he is being very generous with regard to our finals aspirations.

[comrade]

This guy has actually watched us play the last 2 weeks, hasn't he?

[Mantis]

This guy has actually watched us play the last 2 weeks, hasn't he?

Going on our form over the previous 2 weeks and taking into account our mounting injury toll I would only be confident at the moment in playing the bottom 4 sides and probably wouldn't be surprised if we lost these games... It is going to take a momumental shift in performance to win 4 of our last 5.

[LostDoggy]

Going on our form over the previous 2 weeks and taking into account our mounting injury toll I would only be confident at the moment in playing the bottom 4 sides and probably wouldn't be surprised if we lost these games... It is going to take a momumental shift in performance to win 4 of our last 5.


That is my take on the situation. We shall see the ins and outs but our injured and tired midfield will be smashed this week. We better not play Hudson on his own this week either.

[angelopetraglia]

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 112%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $67, Top 8: $2.70, Top 4: $51

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 8th

The rollercoaster season down at Whitten Oval continues and the Dogs can’t be written off just yet. Marcus Bontempelli reminded everyone of his stature in the competition and the return of Bailey Smith was welcomed. If the Dogs can get on a roll and the Tigers slip up then the eighth spot could be theirs.

[GVGjr]

Melbourne are right for the picking and if we can roll them our chances for a finals spot look OK. 3 or 4 more on the percentage side would be handy

[Axe Man]

Hope it turns out better than the 2011 run home.

[bornadog]

Hope it turns out better than the 2011 run home.

Odd to have an Old thread to pull out?

[Bulldog4life]

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 112%)

TAB ODDS: Premier: $67, Top 8: $2.70, Top 4: $51

R19: Melbourne (Marvel) L

R20: Geelong (GMHBA) L

R21: Fremantle (Marvel) W

R22: GWS (Marvel) W

R23: Hawthorn (UTAS) W

Predicted finish: 8th

The rollercoaster season down at Whitten Oval continues and the Dogs can’t be written off just yet. Marcus Bontempelli reminded everyone of his stature in the competition and the return of Bailey Smith was welcomed. If the Dogs can get on a roll and the Tigers slip up then the eighth spot could be theirs.

Onto the rooting thread for you lad. All covered there my friend. We don't want to turn it into the contact thread:o

[angelopetraglia]

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Geelong Cats vs Fremantle at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs Carlton at the SCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions at the MCG

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-8, 111.9%)

Remaining games

Round 20: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium

Round 21: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium

Round 22: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 69%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest

For the first time in 2022, the Run Home numbers are predicting the Bulldogs to play finals, all thanks to their brilliant comeback win against Melbourne.

Well, not all thanks. Richmond becoming the most Richmondy Richmond that ever Richmonded, and winning just one of their last five games, deserves a lot of credit too.

But we said the Bulldogs needed to beat one top-four team to have a good shot at the finals, and they’ve done just that. They have shown they’re good enough to beat a contender, and in the process become one.

Win three of their last four - presumably the last three? - and the Dogs are virtually certain to play finals; to pass them Richmond would need to go 4-0, and St Kilda probably would too, because of their percentage.

If the Dogs ‘only’ win their easiest games left, against the Giants and Hawks, they’re still slight favourites to make it. The simplest path would be Richmond losing to Brisbane and Port Adelaide, and St Kilda losing to at least two of Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney.

Fox Footy’s projection: 12.2 wins, finishing 8th

Full article https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-the-run-home-after-round-19-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/0e9fd16b9f5e1c8be5d09899afdef6ce

[boydogs]

PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Geelong Cats vs Fremantle at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs Carlton at the SCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions at the MCG[/url]

In that scenario our road to the GF would probably be Coll, Freo, Mel, Geel, all away but 3/4 in Vic anyway. That's as easy as you'll get IMO

[bornadog]

Who makes it?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZw1octaIAAcQw4?format=jpg&name=medium

[DOG GOD]

The AFL will be hoping for Carl and Rich for crowd alone.

Rich 7th (2 wins)
Carlton 8th (1 win)
Dogs 9th (1 win)
Stk 10th (0 wins)

[bornadog]

The AFL will be hoping for Carl and Rich for crowd alone.

Rich 7th (2 wins)
Carlton 8th (1 win)
Dogs 9th (1 win)
Stk 10th (0 wins)

Can't see Carlton winning one of the last two

[DOG GOD]

Can't see Carlton winning one of the last two

Collingwood are due to for a loss and surely can’t go into finals winning 12-13 straight or whatever it is. ;)

[chef]

Who makes it?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZw1octaIAAcQw4?format=jpg&name=medium

Its all set up for us to shit the bed in Tassie.

[bornadog]

Collingwood are due to for a loss and surely can’t go into finals winning 12-13 straight or whatever it is. ;)

I think they lose this week against Sydney up there.

[azabob]

How many of these painful threads do we have! I reckon three. Talk about schadenfreude.

[bornadog]

How many of these painful threads do we have! I reckon three. Talk about schadenfreude.

Name them?

[DOG GOD]

I think they lose this week against Sydney up there.
Yeah that’s possible

I think we will struggle in Tassie.

[bornadog]

Yeah that’s possible

I think we will struggle in Tassie.

You going to the Tassie game?

[DOG GOD]

You going to the Tassie game?

I won’t be…I’m still struggling majorly post Covid and have been off work 6 weeks and counting, otherwise I would’ve.

[azabob]

Name them?

I count the "who to root for thread" as one and also the weekly AFL games thread Easty starts also has similar discussions and this one

https://www.woof.net.au/forum/showthread.php?21951-Top-eight-double-chance-who-misses-We-predict-the-ladder

[bornadog]

I count the "who to root for thread" as one and also the weekly AFL games thread Easty starts also has similar discussions and this one

https://www.woof.net.au/forum/showthread.php?21951-Top-eight-double-chance-who-misses-We-predict-the-ladder

Nah, they are all different :D

[bornadog]

I won’t be…I’m still struggling majorly post Covid and have been off work 6 weeks and counting, otherwise I would’ve.

Wow, that is bad. Hope you are better soon.

[DOG GOD]

Wow, that is bad. Hope you are better soon.

Thanks Bornadog

[azabob]

I won’t be…I’m still struggling majorly post Covid and have been off work 6 weeks and counting, otherwise I would’ve.

Bugger. Hope you get on the improve soon!

[DOG GOD]

Bugger. Hope you get on the improve soon!
Thanks Azabob