…...Boyd and Picken……..ahem.
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If we can rookie Smith then sure. Wouldn’t be trading for him given the squeeze for list spots.
Interesting trade idea from a BF Freo fan. Thoughts?
Quote:
Said it on the Keath thread but I'll be staggered if we dont do a pick swap somewhere along the line with you guys.
We have the picks eachother wants
Out: 12,42, 46
In: 20 (from Langdon trade), 25, future 2nd.
12 should just get us ahead of any Henry bid given academdy/FS are normally bid on later than their rankings and we'll squeeze the rest of the points we'll need for a bid from St Kilda in the Hill trade.
Shall I formalise the paperwork?
Our Picks 42 & 46 for a future second rounder is something I've been pushing for a while. So I'm on board with that, they need the draft points and their second next year is perfect.
Pick 13 is a bit of a risk for Freo. Im not sure Pick 25 isn't demanded back from St Kilda (as a neutral observer). I'm not sure Melbourne would give up pick 20 either. But taking the assumptions of your BF contact, but adding in compo. Say Picks 23 & 28 after compo. Pick 23 buys Bruce and Pick 28 Keath.
This: 13 --- 23 (Bruce) & 28 (Keath)
Adel: 13 --- Keath & Pick 24 (Bruce)
StK: 13 --- Bruce & Pick 25 (Keath) (via Fremantle sending this back)
All pretty similar for us. All would get us the result we want. I like the later points trade, no brainer, but there's a fair bit of doubt in the Freo BF fan's numbers. Very optimistic assumptions and glosses over risk to them with Henry and Pick 13.
Seems like a reasonable option and would result in us having 2 ruck men on the rookie list
I'd prefer a more versatile ruck option but Smith would provide great coverage for English and give Sweet another 12 months to develop as a player and improve his mobility
Potential Trading Partners
these are some thoughts on some possible trading opportunities as I see it that could help us secure Keath & Bruce as well as maintain a decent draft hand either this year or in 2020.
1. West Coast
Eagles receive pick 12.
Bulldogs receive;
a) picks 22 & 31
b) picks 22 & Petrucelle (my valuation as a late 2nd rounder)
c) pick 22 & 2nd round pick 2020
For us to deal them pick 12 we must get pick 22 back which we can use for Bruce as a minimum. The add ons are to either keep our draft positions in good condition or by adding (b) Petrucelle some wheels to our forward/midfield area.
The motivation for West Coast is to improve their draft position. Adding 12 to their own 13 would get them in the ball park to land Tim Kelly. They might prefer to keep pick 31 to help with that so options b or c might appeal to them more perhaps.
2. Adelaide
Crows receive pick 12.
Bulldogs receive;
a) picks 21 & 26
b) Keath & pick 26
I doubt option (a) would be available without us having to add at least one of our 3rd rounders. but it would be ideal for us. I think the (b) option is more realistic. 26 goes to Saints for Bruce meaning pick 12 gets us our 2 KP'S. Adelaide could well be motivated to trade for pick 12 to give them a chance of netting one of the top SA boys such as Stephens or Gould who 'could' be available at that pick. With a lot of experienced talent on the way out. High picks should appeal to them.
3. Fremantle
Dockers receive picks 41, 46, 48
Bulldogs receive pick 24 + 2020 3rd round pick
If this happens we send 24 to Saints for Bruce. The motivation for the Dockers is to accrue more draft points to secure highly rated NGA Liam Henry who is likely to attract a bid in the teens and keep them in the middle order of the draft.
4. Hawthorn
Hawks receive picks 41 & 46 or 48 (not both)
Bulldogs receive 28
Motivation for Hawks is to use the picks to acquire F/S prospect Finn Maginness who is likely to attract a bid in the teens. We use 28 on Keath or Bruce
5. GWS
Giants receive one of pick 41, 46 or 48
Bulldogs receive
a) Aiden Bonar
b) GWS future 2nd round pick for a package of 2 x 3rd rounders.
This is more speculative but I wouldn't be surprised if GWS go hard for a pick in the top 5 or 6 in exchange for their 2 first round picks, currently 11 & 17. Sydney with pick 4 might be the target for them. Swans might need some help with Daniher. GWS would like to get a top pick in before a bid on Tom Greene comes in. This is expected to be somewhere from 5 - 12. If GWS are successful they will need picks to secure Greene. Thats where we cash in.
1. West Coast. Of those listed I like 12 for 22 & Petruecelle (essentially a 10 pick downgrade). It could cut through the WCE/Geelong Tim Kelly stalemate that will eventuate.
= Petruecelle, 22/Bruce, 30/Keath, 41 & 46/Freo 2nd, Pick 84/Smith, Live Pick 48, 84/90 & upgrade La Young.
Good trade period.
2. Adelaide pick split of 21 & 26. I was listening to an afl media video the other night and they reckoned Keath was a Pick 30 proposition. 27yo former rookie with 30 games and one good year. If Adelaide took 30, and we kept the picks.
= 21/Bruce, Pick 26 & 48 with cash for a good trade, 30/Keath, 41 & 46/Freo 2nd, Pick 84/Smith, Live 84/90, 95 & upgrade La Young
Good trade period.
3. Freo. I'm hoping we are hunting a 2020 second rounder. Freo is the place I think we should go first. Not so sure on this.
4. Hawks & 5. GWS. Leaves us short of a second rounder from another club using our third rounders. Unless Pick 28 landed Bruce & Pick 30 landed Keath. If so, that leaves pick 12 for a bigger trade. Say Zac Williams & 2020 2nd & 3rd rounders (= Pick 25 DVI) for Pick 12 & 2020 4th.
= Pick 12/Williams, Pick 28/Bruce, Pick 30/Keath, (41 & 46 Hawks), Pick 84/Smith, Live pick 48, 84-90 & upgrade La Young
2020: 1st Dogs, 2nd GWS, 2nd Dogs, 3rd GWS, 3rd Dogs (draft points trade our first this year or next for more points)
Bruce at Pick 28 is the only slight pick issue. Could it be supplemented with pick 48 securing Zak Zones & Paddy Ryder, or a future GWS 3rd for them to play with trying to get King next year, or a player like Jong/Gowers/Lynch?
If so, that's an outstanding trade period for us. GWS hold 11, 12 & 17 (with Bonar also) as they go hard at a top 3-4 pick. Good for them too.
Alternate - St Kilda could hold out with us hoping to get pick 24 from Freo. Then look at demanding Pick 12 off us for Bruce & 24.
= Pick 12/Bruce, Pick 24 & 48 (= Pick 16 DVI - perfect for GWS) with cash for a good trade (ie Zac Williams for DVI Pick 16), 30/Keath, 41 & 46/Freo 2nd, Pick 84/Smith, Live Pick 84/90, 95 & upgrade La Young
2020: 1st Dogs, 2nd Freo, 2nd Dogs, 3rd Dogs, 4th Dogs (draft points trade our first this year or next for more points)
No shortage of options for the club to work through. Four players in. Two draft picks (possible recycled players?) and upgrading La Young. For next year I want to see at least one more second rounder which most models achieve. If our natural pick 30 secures Keath, then to me it's just a matter of how low we can secure Bruce. If we can engineer a way to holding onto pick 12 with a view to a good trade worthy of much of the $700,000 Martin rejected, then that's going to open a world of opportunity for us.
I feel like we're being fair offering pick 25-29 for Bruce. Low 20s feels generous on our end.
Is it possible/likely we land Keath and Bruce and still go into the draft w pick 13?
Anyone else not super keen on Elliott?
Good player but it a small forward that's more of a marking target than a crumber. Kind of the same type as Lloyd and Dale already. I'd rather we put that list spot towards somebody who offers something different to our forwardline.