The Bevo Era & Percentage

[ledge]

Looking at our percentage this year tells us we are a good side , lose by little and win big.
If we won a few close ones we would have been regarded as a premiership contender, the margin is tiny. Eg an extra 14 points would have given us two more wins which places us 4th as opposed to 11th.
Also shows the importance of accurate kicking, even just 3 missed shots.

[Eastdog]

Worst thing about last night was how many gettable goals we missed. Could have really poured on the pain.

19.19 - 38 scoring shots.

Absolutely could have won by more!

[bulldogtragic]

Moved into clear second on percentage. With Sydney clear first. W/L aside, the two best teams on percentage up against each other this week.

[angelopetraglia]

We are ranked #3 for offence - points scored. Sydney #1 and Geelong #2.

We are ranked #5 for defence - points conceded Sydney #1, Freo #2. Melbourne #3, Lions #4

That is a decent profile after 10 games.

(What I found interesting looking at the stats is that Carlton is ranked #15 for defence with only #16 Eagles, #17 Tigers and #18 Kangas worse than them. That is not a top four profile.)

[ledge]

We are ranked #3 for offence - points scored. Sydney #1 and Geelong #2.

We are ranked #5 for defence - points conceded Sydney #1, Freo #2. Melbourne #3, Lions #4

That is a decent profile after 10 games.

(What I found interesting looking at the stats is that Carlton is ranked #15 for defence with only #16 Eagles, #17 Tigers and #18 Kangas worse than them. That is not a top four profile.)

I imagine Carlton’s numbers wouldn’t be a top 8 profile either.

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
2023: 108.7 (1,919/1,766)
*2024: 117.7 (1,666/1,415)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)
2023: averaging 78.25 per game - well over 10% above 2016 & 2021 levels - about 7% better than ?rest? average

2024: 117.7% (11.7% points above our average, 9% points above last year).

92.5 points for - about 6.5 points above Bevo era levels
78.6 points against - still a bit off 2016 & 2021 levels

[SonofScray]

We are ranked #3 for offence - points scored. Sydney #1 and Geelong #2.

We are ranked #5 for defence - points conceded Sydney #1, Freo #2. Melbourne #3, Lions #4

That is a decent profile after 10 games.

(What I found interesting looking at the stats is that Carlton is ranked #15 for defence with only #16 Eagles, #17 Tigers and #18 Kangas worse than them. That is not a top four profile.)

That reads like contender stats to me.

Just have to make it now. My Ladder predictor update has us finishing 7th now.

[angelopetraglia]

That reads like contender stats to me.

Just have to make it now. My Ladder predictor update has us finishing 7th now.

How many more wins are you giving us?

[SonofScray]

How many more wins are you giving us?

3, if I recall what I plugged in correctly.

I think we roll Sydney and drop One of Nth, Melb or Adelaide, inexplicably.

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
2023: 108.7 (1,919/1,766)
*2024: 122.4 (1,863/1,522)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)

2024: 122.4% (16.4% points above our average, 13.7% points above last year).

93.2 points for - about 7.2 points above Bevo era levels
76.1 points against - only a goal a game above 2016 & 2021 levels

Gross numbers:

For: Just 71 points of being the highest scoring team in the comp. If we were more accurate at kicking for goal, we would be the highest scoring team this year.

Against: We are going to be around 50 points off being the best defensive team (Freo ahead but play today). I?d suggest a Barrass type wouldn?t leak some of the easier goals our third talls can give up. Get a guy like him, and I?d say we become the stingiest team if the mids keep the pressure up.


Take away: Scoring more than a goal more than the Bevo era average per game, and conceding just a goal a game more than the 2016 & 2021 sides. An ominous sign considering we could get Johnno down every week from now on to try to straighten us up for the rest of the year and Lobb has improved our defence. Every chance these data points marry up with 2016 & 2021…

[comrade]

The form over the last 4 weeks eclipses anything the 2021 side did in terms of overall sustained performance. It?s also better than anything we did in 2016 outside of that finals series from heaven.

[bulldogtragic]

Percentage under Bevo:

Year: percentage (for/against)

2015: 115.12 (2,101/1,825)
2016: 115.41 (1,857/1,609)
2017: 97.07 (1,857/1,913)
2018: 77.32 (1,575/2,037)
2019: 107.24 (1,941/1,810)
2020: 106.67 (** C19: 1,103/1,034)
2021: 132.84 (1,994/1,501) - missed top four on percentage
2022: 108.89 (1,973/1,812)
2023: 108.7 (1,919/1,766)
*2024: 123.8 (2,073/1,675)

Average: 106%

Scores For: Settled around 1,900 per season - 86 points per game

Scores Against:

2016 & 2021: very low by our historical Bevo average - circa 70 points per game
Rest: around the 1,850 mark - 84 points per game (20% higher than 2016 & 2021)

2024: 123.8% (17.8% points above our average, 15.1% points above last year).

94.2 points for - about 8.2 points above Bevo era levels
76.1 points against - only a goal a game above 2016 & 2021 levels

Gross numbers:

For: Just 48 points of being the highest scoring team in the comp (Swans). If we were more accurate at kicking for goal, we would be the highest scoring team this year.

Against: 7 points off being the best defensive team (Freo). I?d suggest a Barrass type wouldn?t leak some of the easier goals our third talls can give up. Get a guy like him, and I?d say we become the stingiest team if the mids keep the pressure up.


Take away: Scoring nearly a 1.5 goals a game more than the Bevo era average per game, and conceding just a goal a game more than the 2016 & 2021 sides.

[bulldogtragic]

Our highest percentage in the Bevo era with 2016 & 2021.

[ledge]

Can’t go claiming Bevo is a defensive coach with these stats, he is all about scoring high.
We have had two 90 odd point wins this year and a few around 9 goals . Think we only got belted three times where were never in the game.
We aren’t a small win, lose big side we were known for before Bevo.