How Clayton Oliver, Jack Macrae and Jack Lukosius could headline next batch of AFL trade steals after inking long-t

[Hotdog60]

The art of team building in any sport is all about staying ahead of the curve.

Clubs that are pro-active in the way they construct their lists are often the best, the poorer-performing clubs tend to react to the way better clubs do business. This happens in most sporting codes in the world, and the AFL is no different.

In 2024, each of the AFL's 18 clubs had between 35 and 39 players on its list, with an additional four to nine listed as rookies.

While all teams have access to the same recruitment rules, either via trades or free agency or through the various drafts, the way they build their lists varies significantly.

Clubs such as Essendon, Collingwood, Carlton or Richmond tend to use the lure of marquee matches at the MCG in front of packed crowds as a means to lure free agents from smaller clubs.

Other clubs who may not have the allure of mass marquee fixtures tend to use the different draft systems more. Geelong has regularly excelled at adding talent through the rookie draft, for example, while Carlton has built its success off the back of nailing high picks in the national draft.

Tasmania's pending arrival into the AFL later this decade will dilute the draft for a few years, and teams will once again have to get more creative around their recruitment, as they did when the Gold Coast Suns and the GWS Giants entered the league.

For every lever the league pulls, there is a reaction that comes down the line. This has been especially evident in free agency.

When free agency arrived at the end of the 2012 season, it was no surprise Essendon was one of the first teams to capitalise by using its significant sway to lure Brendon Goddard from St Kilda.

A few years later, clubs reacted to the arrival of free agency by deciding to trade players with a few years left on their deals, 'pre-agents' who they figured could fetch a greater return for on the trade market as opposed to what the AFL's convoluted free agency compensation system would reward them with.



How Western Bulldogs and Sydney benefited from 'post-agent' trades

At the end of the 2020 season, Collingwood determined that its salary cap was in dire straits and embarked on a fire sale during the trade period.

The most appealing of all the players they were willing to let go was star midfielder Adam Treloar, who the club had only recently signed to a four-year extension that would see him remain a Magpie through the 2025 season.

Treloar had earned the lucrative extension from the Magpies in 2019 after putting up career-best numbers of 32.9 disposals and 5.9 clearances per game.

That same year, the Bulldogs found themselves in their own trade drama after Josh Dunkley requested a trade to Essendon.

Incredibly, the Bulldogs not only retained Dunkley after Essendon refused to blink in a trade stand-off, but they also added Treloar, parting ways with a first-round selection in the 2020 draft and a second-round pick in 2021. The Pies used the 2020 first-rounder to draft Ollie Henry.



The return Collingwood received in return for Treloar paled in comparison to what they paid to bring him to the club in a trade with the GWS Giants in 2015.

Collingwood parted ways with two first-round picks, one in 2015 and one in 2016 in a trade for Treloar. The pick the Pies gave up in 2015 ended up landing at No.9, and a few selections later Carlton selected Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow. The 2016 selection landed in at No.8 and was eventually used by Fremantle to select Griffin Logue.

Four years on from the deal, the move to grab Treloar looks like a masterstroke from the Western Bulldogs. Not only have the Dogs gotten themselves an elite midfielder, they've got him on terms well below his market value, given Collingwood is still paying approximately $300,000 of the $900,000 he is owed annually. Good luck getting a player of Treloar's ability for $600,000 on the open market now.

In 20 appearances so far this season, Treloar has averaged 32 disposals and a hair below six clearances, right in line with his career-best numbers. His ability to run and carry from stoppages has added a new dimension to the Bulldogs' midfield that has suddenly started humming, and he's proved himself to be an excellent foil for Bulldogs skipper Marcus Bontempelli.

The cap squeeze that forced Treloar out stemmed from Collingwood's decision to break the bank to secure the services of two-time All-Australian ruckman Brodie Grundy at the end of 2019.

Coming off two outstanding seasons, Grundy's camp used the lure of the South Australian native joining Adelaide to get Collingwood to agree to a whopping seven-year extension for a total of approximately $7 million over the duration of the contract.

While Grundy still remained an excellent ruckman after signing the deal, his extension became the example of poor salary cap management.

Grundy was just two years into his seven-year extension when he was deemed surplus to requirements at Collingwood, as the club looked to reshuffle his money elsewhere having made an unlikely run to a preliminary final while he was sidelined through injury in 2022.

Melbourne had the right idea trading for Grundy, believing the combination of he and skipper Max Gawn could potentially be the greatest ruck tandem of all time, but the pair did not work well together.

Twelve months later, the Sydney Swans were the major beneficiary, acquiring him from the Demons for virtually nothing ? pick 46 in last year's draft and a second-round pick in this year's draft.

The trade has been a massive win for the Swans so far. Grundy's arrival has supercharged a dynamic Swans midfield, and his numbers of 18.2 disposals, 32.2 hit-outs and 4.9 clearances per game have him in contention for an All-Australian jacket.

Like they have been with Treloar, Collingwood is still footing some of the bill for Grundy's salary of approximately $1 million this season, with the Swans on the hook for roughly $700,000, again, well below what Grundy's actual market value would be.

The next batch of fallen stars that could be had for cheap

Treloar and Grundy's success at their new clubs shows that one team's trash can truly be another team's treasure, and teams would be wise to explore fallen stars around the league.

Ironically, Treloar's arrival at the Bulldogs has forced one of their previous midfield mainstays, Jack Macrae, to suddenly become the odd man out in a high-powered Dogs engine room.

It seems like he's been around forever, which makes it hard to believe that Macrae has only just turned 30.

Between 2018 and 2022, Macrae averaged in excess of 30 disposals per game every season except for one, a COVID-impacted 2020 season where he averaged 26.4 disposals per game in shortened quarters.



Macrae has averaged just 18.8 touches per game in 17 appearances in 2024, his lowest mark since his debut season, and will be highly likely to search for another club to continue his career at over the summer.

Don't be surprised if he joins a rival club and racks up an astounding amount of the football next season. Any team that is devoid of quality midfielders should be hunting the three-time All-Australian, who is signed through the 2027 season.

One of Macrae's 2016 premiership teammates, Caleb Daniel, should also be on the radar of rival clubs.

An All-Australian in 2020, the diminutive defender has also fallen out of favour with Luke Beveridge this season, playing just 14 games.

Victorian clubs are expected to hunt Port Adelaide's Dan Houston this season, with the All-Australian defender reportedly seeking a move back to his home state



However, with Port Adelaide expected to ask for a monster trade haul in return, Daniel might be a suitable bargain option.

Daniel is signed through until the end of the 2026 season, and will be a valuable addition to any team looking for a classy ball-user in its back half who can also pinch hit in the midfield on occasion ? he is 12 months removed from a season where he averaged 23.4 disposals and 3.3 clearances per game.

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[bornadog]

I really rate Lukosuis, not sure why he was dropped but then again what do you expect from Hardwick.

Love to have him at the club

[The Adelaide Connection]

I really rate Lukosuis, not sure why he was dropped but then again what do you expect from Hardwick.

Love to have him at the club

100% agree.

[mighty_west]

I really rate Lukosuis, not sure why he was dropped but then again what do you expect from Hardwick.

Love to have him at the club

The two Adelaide clubs will be moving heaven and earth to get him i'd imagine.

[mjp]

I really rate Lukosuis, not sure why he was dropped but then again what do you expect from Hardwick.

Love to have him at the club

I loved him as an 18yo.

Hardwick is frustrated by his lack of grit. Fight it out kid - own your moments.

Needs a strong leadership group around him.

[The Adelaide Connection]

I loved him as an 18yo.

Hardwick is frustrated by his lack of grit. Fight it out kid - own your moments.

Needs a strong leadership group around him.

Yep, this is my take. He struggles to match players his height for strength too, and can be a little "bruise free" at times.

Still, I rate him. Would love to have him and he could be a real "moneyball" type play, particularly in terms of the pick needed to get him.

[azabob]

Yep, this is my take. He struggles to match players his height for strength too, and can be a little "bruise free" at times.

Still, I rate him. Would love to have him and he could be a real "moneyball" type play, particularly in terms of the pick needed to get him.

Cash wise it would be close to a cool million per season though…

[The Adelaide Connection]

Cash wise it would be close to a cool million per season though…

I am not sure he is attracting anywhere near that, unless both Adelaide teams get into a bidding war.

[azabob]

I am not sure he is attracting anywhere near that, unless both Adelaide teams get into a bidding war.

He is on close to that at the moment. Remember he is at the suns and they overpay to have players stay.